Open 233: Ninja Mafia Boogaloo - Over!

[AGar]

For the record, the D1 VC analysis was showing me a TON.

Then the site crashed on me and I lost it.

Starting from scratch again.

[AGar]

Day 1 Votecount Analysis

Note: All VC #s exclude the first votecount of each day, as no votes are cast. So Votecount D1.1 is actually the 2nd votecount of Day 1.

D1.1 - 1d 9h 25m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(1): smashbro_of_the_SSS
2. KageLord (1):

Beefster

3.

Chronopie

(0):
4.

ConfidAnon

(0):
5. Austin Newman (Gammagooey) (0):
6.

AGar

(4): silverbullet999,

Enigma

,

Zorblag

,

Zajnet

7.

Zajnet

(1): PaltryExcuse (singersigner)
8.

Zorblag

(2):

curiouskarmadog

,

Sotty7

9. tumescence (drmyshottyizsik) (0):
10.

Enigma

(1):

Chronopie

11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(1): StrangerCoug
15.

Sotty7

(1):

AGar

16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(1):

ConfidAnon

18. silverbullet999 (1):

Col.Cathart

Players not voting: KageLord, Austin Newman (Gammagooey), tumescence (drmyshottyizsik),

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

RVS shenanigans, nothing to take from this that I can see.

D1.2 - 1d 42m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(1): smashbro_of_the_SSS
2. KageLord (1):

Beefster

3.

Chronopie

(0):
4.

ConfidAnon

(0):
5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(4): silverbullet999,

Enigma

,

Zorblag

,

Zajnet

7.

Zajnet

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(1):

curiouskarmadog

9. tumescence (drmyshottyizsik) (0):
10.

Enigma

(1):

Chronopie

11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(2): PaltryExcuse (singersigner),

Sotty7

15.

Sotty7

(2):

AGar

, Gammagooey
16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (1): StrangerCoug
17.

curiouskarmadog

(1):

ConfidAnon

18. silverbullet999 (2):

Col.Cathart

,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

Players not voting: KageLord, tumescence (drmyshottyizsik)

Still RVS, still nothing gained that I can see.

D1.3 - 2d 20h 46m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (1):

Zorblag

3.

Chronopie

(1):

curiouskarmadog

4.

ConfidAnon

(1):

AGar

5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(1):

Enigma

7.

Zajnet

(4): smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Beefster

,

ConfidAnon

, StrangerCoug
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. tumescence (drmyshottyizsik) (0):
10.

Enigma

(1): PaltryExcuse (singersigner)
11. StrangerCoug (1): Gammagooey
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (1):

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(5):

Sotty7

,

Col.Cathart

, silverbullet999,

Zajnet

,

Chronopie

15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting: KageLord, tumescence (drmyshottyizsik)

Oh hey look, something worth noting. Here we see the wagon on SV gain 4 votes in under 3 days. One is definitely scum (Chrono), but a wagon usually doesn't grow that fast mostly off of townies, at least not that I've seen.

D1.4 - 18h 8m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (1):

Zorblag

3.

Chronopie

(1):

curiouskarmadog

4.

ConfidAnon

(1):

AGar

5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(1):

Enigma

7.

Zajnet

(4): smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Beefster

,

ConfidAnon

, StrangerCoug
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. tumescence (drmyshottyizsik) (0):
10.

Enigma

(2): PaltryExcuse (singersigner), Gammagooey
11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (1):

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(5):

Sotty7

,

Col.Cathart

, silverbullet999,

Zajnet

,

Chronopie

15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting: KageLord, tumescence (drmyshottyizsik)

This is where the gettings are good. The votecount almost completely freezes, the only change being Gamma getting onto Enigma and off of SC. However, in this 18 hour period, all but Troll (scum), Chrono (scum), Col.Cathart (town), Supersmash and SC posted. I have a town read on SC, so if there was oblivious scum it would be Supersmash, but I don't see that as highly likely right now. Tume posted, but that post was another empty promise post - I could see Tume scum missing the opportunity to push the wagon further. Also, I think that just points more to SBscum on the wagon. Also, Gamma gets townpoints, switching to a different wagon. Gamma-scum could also easily have tried to hop on the wagon to push it further without much harm.

D1.5 - 1d 5h 40m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (0):
3.

Chronopie

(1):

curiouskarmadog

4.

ConfidAnon

(1):

AGar

5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(1):

Enigma

7.

Zajnet

(4): smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Beefster

,

ConfidAnon

, StrangerCoug
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. tumescence (drmyshottyizsik) (1):

Zorblag

10.

Enigma

(5): PaltryExcuse (singersigner), Gammagooey,

Col.Cathart

, silverbullet999,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(3):

Sotty7

,

Zajnet

,

Chronopie

15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting: KageLord, tumescence (drmyshottyizsik)

More juicy goodness! SV wagon collapses. Enigma wagon starts rolling. Common denominator? SB. Wagon gains 3 votes in a little over a day. Two are confirmed town. I don't see three townies pushing that wagon forward from it's current spot.

D1.6 - 2d 7m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (0):
3.

Chronopie

(1):

curiouskarmadog

4.

ConfidAnon

(2):

AGar

, PaltryExcuse (singersigner)
5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
7.

Zajnet

(4): smashbro_of_the_SSS,

ConfidAnon

, StrangerCoug, KageLord
8.

Zorblag

(1):

Enigma

9. tumescence (drmyshottyizsik) (2):

Zorblag

,

Beefster

10.

Enigma

(4): Gammagooey,

Col.Cathart

, silverbullet999,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(3):

Sotty7

,

Zajnet

,

Chronopie

15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting: tumescence (drmyshottyizsik)

PE follows me to Confid, Beefster moves to Tume and not much else happens. I'd like to note that Troll could have been looking for an easy bus in Tume, using his target the lurker meta to further it. In the 2 day span, Troll, Chrono and SSS were the only 3 to not post. Again, I think it's unlikely that

3

scum were lurking away here.

D1.7 - 2d 14h 4m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (0):
3.

Chronopie

(1):

curiouskarmadog

4.

ConfidAnon

(5):

AGar

, PaltryExcuse (singersigner), silverbullet999,

Zajnet

,

Enigma

5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
7.

Zajnet

(5): smashbro_of_the_SSS,

ConfidAnon

, StrangerCoug, KageLord,

Sotty7

8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. tumescence (drmyshottyizsik) (2):

Zorblag

,

Beefster

10.

Enigma

(4): Gammagooey,

Col.Cathart

,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

,

Chronopie

11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(0):
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting: tumescence (drmyshottyizsik)

Again, a wagon gets 3 votes in 2 1/2 days. Again, 2 townies + SB hop on. I'm starting to see a pattern here.

D1.8 - 9h 28m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (0):
3.

Chronopie

(1):

curiouskarmadog

4.

ConfidAnon

(5):

AGar

, PaltryExcuse (singersigner), silverbullet999,

Zajnet

,

Enigma

5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
7.

Zajnet

(9): smashbro_of_the_SSS,

ConfidAnon

, StrangerCoug, KageLord,

Sotty7

,

Zorblag

,

Beefster

,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

, drmyshottyizsik
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. tumescence (drmyshottyizsik) (0):
10.

Enigma

(2): Gammagooey,

Col.Cathart

11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(0):
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting:

Chronopie

Alright, here's more good stuff. The Zaj wagon takes off, gaining 4 votes in 9 1/2 hours. Troll comes in and hops on, while Beef and SV pile on, and drmy is the last. Drmy's timing looks like him trying to get on while the wagon is still growing steam but spaced a good distance from Troll-scum.

D1.F - 1d 1h 44m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (0):
3.

Chronopie

(1):

curiouskarmadog

4.

ConfidAnon

(5):

AGar

, PaltryExcuse (singersigner), silverbullet999,

Zajnet

, Gammagooey
5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
7.

Zajnet

(10): smashbro_of_the_SSS,

ConfidAnon

, StrangerCoug, KageLord,

Sotty7

,

Zorblag

,

Beefster

,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

, drmyshottyizsik,

Enigma

8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (0):
10.

Enigma

(1):

Col.Cathart

11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(0):
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting:

Chronopie

Final VC of Day 1 - Gamma gets onto Confid. Enigma gets off Confid and hammers.

We all know what happens N1 - Enigma dies.

[AGar]

After Day 1 VC analysis, I'm leaning towards a SB/drmy duo.

Moving on to Day 2.

[silverbullet999]

-Agar

I like what your doing, keep it up as it's quite good.
However I'm going to have to retort your point about the SV wagon.
You may have forgotten buy SV started his attack on me claiming a supposed meta that I was not following.
He essentially dug himself a small hole with his attack on me.

[AGar]

D2.1 - 4d 3h 58m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (1):

ConfidAnon

3.

Chronopie

(4):

curiouskarmadog

, Gammagooey, StrangerCoug,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

4.

ConfidAnon

(1):

AGar

5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (1):

Beefster

11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(3):

Sotty7

, PaltryExcuse (singersigner), smashbro_of_the_SSS
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. PaltryExcuse (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting:

Col.Cathart

, KageLord,

Chronopie

,

Zorblag

, drmyshottyizsik, silverbullet999

A very telling first VC. The first wagon that builds is on Chrono. Troll (scum), Chrono (scum), SB and drmy all hang back. Watch what happens in the next VC.

D2.2 - 1d 19h 9m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (1):

ConfidAnon

3.

Chronopie

(2):

curiouskarmadog

,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

4.

ConfidAnon

(4):

AGar

, StrangerCoug, Gammagooey, silverbullet999
5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (1):

Beefster

11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(3):

Sotty7

, Prox (singersigner), smashbro_of_the_SSS
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. Prox (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting:

Col.Cathart

, KageLord,

Chronopie

,

Zorblag

, drmyshottyizsik

Oh look, a counter-wagon on Confid (town) gets some steam and SB is right there following. Chrono, Troll and drmy still hang back.

D2.F - 3d 4h 52m elapsed since prior VC

1.

Col.Cathart

(0):
2. KageLord (1):

ConfidAnon

3.

Chronopie

(9):

curiouskarmadog

,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

, drmyshottyizsik, StrangerCoug,

Sotty7

, Gammagooey, silverbullet999,

AGar

,

Zorblag

4.

ConfidAnon

(3): KageLord,

Chronopie

,

Beefster

5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (0):
11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(0):
14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(2): Prox (singersigner), smashbro_of_the_SSS
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. Prox (singersigner) (0):
17.

curiouskarmadog

(0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting:

Col.Cathart

Final VC of Day 2. Zorblag hammers away his partner. Prox, Smash and Kage all absent from when CKD claims until hammer. Null on them, although I think that scum all got on. Drmy made a complete contradiction to his earlier stance in the day by just hopping on the Chrono wagon and not posting afterwords once CKD claimed. Looks like scum trying to get the early bus in. SB also hops on as soon as possible with little to no discussion about the claim, just a vote and some fluff.

N2 CKD perished, no surprise with his claim.

D2 was short. Still leaning towards SB/drmy. Prox/PE slot gets a few minor scumlooks for picking SV wagon over Chrono at beginning of the day, but they were 2nd on, so it wasn't really an established counterwagon needing fuel, and the slot stayed off of Confid when it gained steam.

[AGar]

-Agar

I like what your doing, keep it up as it's quite good.
However I'm going to have to retort your point about the SV wagon.
You may have forgotten buy SV started his attack on me claiming a supposed meta that I was not following.
He essentially dug himself a small hole with his attack on me.

The speed of the wagon looked scum driven. The other 3 votes are confirmed alignment, and 2 of them are town. The scum vote is the last on. Explain the discrepancy. Note I'm not completely looking in context here, mostly just patterns.

[silverbullet999]

The speed of the wagon looked scum driven. The other 3 votes are confirmed alignment, and 2 of them are town. The scum vote is the last on. Explain the discrepancy. Note I'm not completely looking in context here, mostly just patterns.

I believe I was first on the shattered wagon (could be wrong on this). The other two townies saw that his claim about my meta was bull and the scum hops on because hey it looks like a justified wagon on a townie.

[silverbullet999]

Also maybe it's just me

A very telling first VC. The first wagon that builds is on Chrono. Troll (scum), Chrono (scum), SB and drmy all hang back. Watch what happens in the next VC.

but it seems that you... for the most part are somewhat tunneling bud. Your completely ignoring that kage is also sitting back here and

Oh look, a counter-wagon on Confid (town) gets some steam and SB is right there following. Chrono, Troll and drmy still hang back.

here

[StrangerCoug]

singersigner: Her predecessors don't give me a strong read either way, but she's been a pretty strong force. The one nag I have—she's solid town, but this is what is keeping her out of the #1 slot—is that, in post #677, she says that "[y]ou're either NKed, you're lynched, or you're mislynched." Not only do I feel her differentiation between a lynch and a mislynch in this context unnatural, but she fails to bring up the possibility of a modkill, which has happened twice this game. (There are also other ways to get killed in Mafia games, but nothing else is possible, so I feel it a waste of time to get on her about that.)

The speculation about how you die was regarding what we as a town (as a whole, with mafia infiltrating town) have the power to do. Modkills out of it. Does that make more sense?

Yes. Thank you.

[AGar]

Also maybe it's just me

A very telling first VC. The first wagon that builds is on Chrono. Troll (scum), Chrono (scum), SB and drmy all hang back. Watch what happens in the next VC.

but it seems that you... for the most part are somewhat tunneling bud. Your completely ignoring that kage is also sitting back here and

Oh look, a counter-wagon on Confid (town) gets some steam and SB is right there following. Chrono, Troll and drmy still hang back.

here

Kage didn't have a pattern of hopping on building wagons. You did. Drmy proved scummy with his actions in D1 and there was justification in the patterns for him.

[AGar]

D3/D4 will come tomorrow. I'm shot right now.

[Gammagooey]

@silver- What I'm trying to say is that I think you were being cautious in voting (aka not voting them) people who weren't already examining you carefully to try and ensure that they wouldn't look back on your play in this game. The Chrono behavior is you mentioning that you're considering voting Chrono or SV without discussing the Chrono case in detail and then joining another wagon without mentioning Chrono again until the cop claim.

@AGar-I really like your VC analysis so far but I'm most interested in what you think of the day 3 Troll/drmyshotty votes. If it weren't for that I'd agree with you on the drmyshotty/silver scumteam but your analysis points a lot to silver/Kage if you take drmyshotty out of the picture- at the end of the day one on one big wagon of d1 one on the other, with both not voting Chrono until the cop claim d2 and both getting on the Confid wagon before that happened.

[AGar]

@AGar-I really like your VC analysis so far but I'm most interested in what you think of the day 3 Troll/drmyshotty votes. If it weren't for that I'd agree with you on the drmyshotty/silver scumteam but your analysis points a lot to silver/Kage if you take drmyshotty out of the picture- at the end of the day one on one big wagon of d1 one on the other, with both not voting Chrono until the cop claim d2 and both getting on the Confid wagon before that happened.

Hmmm.... That's a good point. Kage and SB never end up on the same votee, and Kage actually completely avoids the Chrono vote. I know he didn't post, but he could've come in and seen the wagon building and decided to not post. I dunno, a bunch of dangerous thinking there, but still worth noting.

We'll see what D3/D4 turns up tomorrow.

[AGar]

[offtopic]You playing SC2?[/offtopic]

[Gammagooey]

Nah,

procrastinating

working on the project I mentioned yesterday. I used to be rank 1 in my gold league division before I stopped playing for a while and got like 100 bonus pool points laying around though >.>
(Protoss, before you ask)

[KageLord]

@AGar-I really like your VC analysis so far but I'm most interested in what you think of the day 3 Troll/drmyshotty votes. If it weren't for that I'd agree with you on the drmyshotty/silver scumteam but your analysis points a lot to silver/Kage if you take drmyshotty out of the picture- at the end of the day one on one big wagon of d1 one on the other, with both not voting Chrono until the cop claim d2 and both getting on the Confid wagon before that happened.

Hmmm.... That's a good point. Kage and SB never end up on the same votee, and Kage actually completely avoids the Chrono vote. I know he didn't post, but he could've come in and seen the wagon building and decided to not post. I dunno, a bunch of dangerous thinking there, but still worth noting.

Interesting coincidence there about me and SB, but no, I didn't come in and see the post-cop Chrono wagon. By the time I saw the cop claim, he had already been hammered (and I didn't feel like going to L+1).

Also note about the Confid thing though that after Chrono flips, I believe Confid town (despite the later wagon(s) that scum could jump on). I think it was on my first post of D3 that I mentioned Confid seemed unlikely scum to me for his "Baa." vote on Chrono (as opposed to before, where he looked scummy for that sheep vote).

[silverbullet999]

heheheh

I like how I'm essentially scum in all supposed possible scum teams in D1 and D2.

I think I'll have a few comments when D3 and D4 analysis are done

[silverbullet999]

EBWOP

Hmmm.... That's a good point. Kage and SB never end up on the same votee, and Kage actually completely avoids the Chrono vote. I know he didn't post, but he could've come in and seen the wagon building and decided to not post. I dunno, a bunch of dangerous thinking there, but still worth noting.

This sort of proves the tunnel vision (which is mainly on me and somewhat on dr) from you

[singersigner]

Tunnel vision isn't bad if done correctly. It's confirmation bias that's bad...which may or may not be the case here.

In any case, I've been reading up on what's going on, and like what I see from the VC analysis (again, be careful with that C.B.), and how people are reacting to it. I'll be gone for the rest of the day, and will be studying like mad for something I know nothing about when I get back, so I wouldn't expect much from me until tomorrow at least.

[silverbullet999]

Tunnel vision isn't bad if done correctly. It's confirmation bias that's bad...which may or may not be the case here.

Well let's be honest here... there right now are two prime candidates for lynching . They are me and drmy. Now I myself see drmy as town (to me he's been his typical VI)... it could be a clever ploy by him and mayhaps i'm tricked but my previous game tells me otherwise. While again I like the VC analysis, It's seeming to simply be not a VC analysis, but more a case thrown on me (a good one in some ways I suppose) to "prove" i'm scum and figuring out who my partner is. The main problem is a few things... I'm thinking perhaps unconsciously perhaps not... agar believes i'm scum (or maybe he's just been playing fantastically as scum). This causes him in his analysis to go.. well scum silver hops on here... and (other) is doing this with/without silver so they must be a scum team. I mean as I said every team he suggests has me as one of the two. His case may be convincing and cause my lynch. However I know what I am and to me this is just like Confid's case... he presented one hell of a case, that caused a wagon... but what did confid flip? town. What will I flip (though you won't believe me until i'm dead)? town. What does his whole VC analysis then become ? A pile of rhetoric.

I guess what I find most disturbing is that Kage has had little pressure and smash even smaller still. I find it funny that Kage immediately tries to eliminate any connection with (according to the town) scumsilver when he was poked about the VC analysis. The town as a whole has been tunneling either me or dr for the most part. If you want to take this as "well i'm just trying to throw suspicion off of myself" you can believe that but it would be false. SC you yourself have even stated that you don't have any sort of read on smash... yet what action/s are you taking to correct this?

Basically what i'm saying is, if I end up being the lynch, so be it... but please at least for a little bit of the day, spread your view on those you don't have reads on. Stop having this iron sight view that I'm scum and think... what if I'm not... who would you be suspicious of? Am I saying remove your pressure on me and remove your votes? no. but this day and the past day have been mainly focused on me with noone else heavily under pressure... if you truly believed I was scum yesterday, why did you derail the wagon on to confid and why is what happened yesterday starting to occur again?

[AGar]

Day 3

For the confirmation bias/tunneling discussion - I look for the scum motivation behind a vote, nothing else. So I either see something as scummy or I don't see anything at all. Capiche?

D3.1 - 2d 23h 22m elapsed since prior VC

2. KageLord (0):
4.

ConfidAnon

(0):
5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (3):

Zorblag

,

Beefster

, StrangerCoug
11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(4): Gammagooey,

AGar

, drmyshottyizsik,

ConfidAnon

14.

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

(0):
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. Prox (singersigner) (0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting: KageLord, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Shattered Viewpoint (Equinox)

,

Sotty7

, Prox (singersigner), silverbullet999

Alright, D3 kickoff! Woo! Let's go! Two wagons emerge rather quickly. At this point, it was 7 to lynch. A Zorblag-driven wagon on drmy emerges. Note that troll has been pushing at this wagon the entire time. The other wagon is on Beefster. drmy getting a head-start in the day makes sense - Trollscum pushing it. Beefster looks a little off, but it got weird support. Again, I still don't see Gammascum, so if anything, drmyscum is on it, but his vote wasn't a self-saving vote.

D3.2 - 1d 21h 47m elapsed since prior VC

2. KageLord (0):
4.

ConfidAnon

(0):
5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (3):

Zorblag

,

Beefster

, StrangerCoug
11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(5): Gammagooey,

AGar

, drmyshottyizsik,

ConfidAnon

, KageLord
14.

Equinox

(0):
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. Prox (singersigner) (0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting: smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Equinox

,

Sotty7

, Prox (singersigner), silverbullet999

Yay only one more vote being cast. Beefster wagon grows by one. SB sits back, oddly enough. Prox doesn't post. Smash doesn't give a full post. There's scum logic on the SB sitting back, letting the town wagon roll without getting on it and not pushing to bus drmy. Kage's furthering vote could definitely be of a drmy/Kage scumpair though - giving a safety net of keeping 2 votes ahead on drmy. Augh.

D3.3 - 1d 15h 13m elapsed since prior VC

2. KageLord (0):
4.

ConfidAnon

(0):
5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (3):

Zorblag

,

Beefster

, StrangerCoug
11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(6): Gammagooey,

AGar

, drmyshottyizsik,

ConfidAnon

, KageLord,

Equinox

14.

Equinox

(0):
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. Prox (singersigner) (0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting: smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Sotty7

, Prox (singersigner), silverbullet999

Wagon gains a town vote when Equi finishes reads. I reallly dislike the SB not voting though posting multiple times and being on the up and up of the game. It really really looks like scum trying to let a wagon roll while staying off of it.

D3.F - 3h 19m elapsed since prior VC

2. KageLord (0):
4.

ConfidAnon

(0):
5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (3):

Zorblag

,

Beefster

, StrangerCoug
11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
13.

Beefster

(7): Gammagooey,

AGar

, drmyshottyizsik,

ConfidAnon

, KageLord,

Equinox

,

Sotty7

14.

Equinox

(0):
15.

Sotty7

(0):
16. Prox (singersigner) (0):
18. silverbullet999 (0):

Players not voting: smashbro_of_the_SSS, Prox (singersigner), silverbullet999

Sotty lays the hammer, SSS expresses intent. SB doesn't post. Didn't realize Prox posted at all during said gameday. D3 opens up more looking into Kage-scum though.

[singersigner]

I guess what I find most disturbing is that Kage has had little pressure and smash even smaller still.

Actually, if you looked at my somewhat primitive analysis when I just came in, Smash was definitely up there on my suspicious list. The three of you, smash, drmy, and you. Of the three, I went with you, but that doesn't mean that I think smash is any less suspicious.

if you truly believed I was scum yesterday, why did you derail the wagon on to confid and why is what happened yesterday starting to occur again?

I hope this is a generic "you," since I did no such thing...

PREVIEW EDIT: Oof, I've have more to say about that later...

[AGar]

Day 4

D4.1 - 2d 10h 38m elapsed since prior VC

2. KageLord (1): drmyshottyizsik
4.

ConfidAnon

(2):

Equinox

,

AGar

5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (0):
11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
14.

Equinox

(1): silverbullet999
16. Prox (singersigner) (1): Gammagooey
18. silverbullet999 (3): KageLord, StrangerCoug,

ConfidAnon

Players not voting:

Zorblag

, smashbro_of_the_SSS, Prox (singersigner)

Ok, so here goes.. SB wagon takes off, with Kage hopping on, followed by SC and Confid. SB starts off on Equi, in what I can only assume to be OMGUS-fueled fits of rage. Smash lurks without a vote or post. Prox has requested replacement. We all know what happens to Troll. Two scum lurking around. Drmy bussing Kage? Se possible.

D4.F - 1d 12m elapsed since prior VC

2. KageLord (0):
4.

ConfidAnon

(6):

Equinox

,

AGar

, Gammagooey, smashbro_of_the_SSS, drmyshottyizsik, StrangerCoug
5. Gammagooey (0):
6.

AGar

(0):
8.

Zorblag

(0):
9. drmyshottyizsik (0):
11. StrangerCoug (0):
12. smashbro_of_the_SSS (0):
14.

Equinox

(1): silverbullet999
16. Prox (singersigner) (0):
18. silverbullet999 (2): KageLord,

ConfidAnon

Players not voting:

Zorblag

, Prox (singersigner)

Let's see. SB plants on Equi, Kage plants on SB. Drmy gets on Confid at the last possible minute without hammering. So does Smash.

D4 is done.

Top 3 are Kage, drmy and SB. Smash drew a few pings with that last VC. SB looked really bad in D1/D2, but has looked a bit better D3/D4. Kage looked null in D1/D2, but really thrusted himself into the scumlight on D3 and followed up with a strong performance D4. Drmy's slot lurked for like 3 game days, he came in and was instantly just playing bad. Not sure where to stand fully on it, but it doesn't look good. Kage/Drmy trying hard to cross bus at times?

Iso's for the 4. Other three players are prob-town. Also NK analysis is useful at this time.

Also, I think it's time for a mass-claim, we've had 10 flips. 8 of us are alive, and we can narrow the setup down to 4 possibilities. I'm volunteering to start if the majority approves. It forces scum to either gamble on a false-claim without any real communication with their partner beforehand, and it will set everyone into a position from here on out. I have a list of what we should see without any false-claims in each scenario, I can guess pretty well if we see anything, and it could theoretically weed out some people from the mislynch pool. Any objections?

[silverbullet999]

That was a generic you sing...

and i'm fine with the mass claim

[StrangerCoug]

Tunnel vision isn't bad if done correctly. It's confirmation bias that's bad...which may or may not be the case here.

I thought those were one and the same.

I'm neutral on the mass claim. I don't think it's an absolute necessity, but if it helps town more than scum, fine.