A Clash of Kings - A Divided Kingdom

[hasdgfas]

Also, would you have been able to talk to me at night?

Yes, mason buddies.

I kinda have issues with that, as we have the Kingsguard, which is another night talk group. Seems like a lot of night talking.

[Macavitar]

Also, would you have been able to talk to me at night?

Yes, mason buddies.

I kinda have issues with that, as we have the Kingsguard, which is another night talk group. Seems like a lot of night talking.

But you guys don't have alignment confirmation, right? Also, this is just limited to two people. I don't know, there's also a lot of unconventional killing in this game, between the triggered vig, the dayvig, and the hired assassin who suicided.

Listen, if you guys do lynch me, we'll end up in that 4-1-1 scenario tomorrow (assuming no cross-kills). That's a LYLO scenario. Has anything I've said contradicted the info that you have, hascow? Any info out there? I know this looks bad, but the explanation for it isn't so unlikely, is it?

[diddin]

Oh god Macavatar is already going into AtE territory. Once Unsight/MoI post I am voting.

[Macavitar]

Oh god Macavatar is already going into AtE territory. Once Unsight/MoI post I am voting.

And how exactly would you respond to the shitty situation I've found myself in? Some not-concrete evidence against me, wherein if I get lynched, town is in a tough LYLO tomorrow. Seriously.

At the very least, give me time to make my case on Magna.

[Mina]

Aww, damn it, I know I shouldn't give the scumbag false hope, but I can't resist wallowing in the WIFOM.

Hey, MacavityLock. Let me ask you something. Why didn't you claim days ago and ask for Brienne to come forward, given how tight a situation we were in? I mean, it's not like you'd be asking her to

role-claim

. All you do is remove yourself and another player from the suspect pool. Instead, you forced Cow to waste an investigation on you. Or did your PM tell you that Brienne might be a tracker?

============================================

Yeah. I know I tend to suffer confirmation bias sometimes, jump to the worst possible conclusion given a bit of incriminating evidence, and ignore my suspect's pleas (like in the mini, when my scumpartner had a tracking result on MacavityLock and I refused to believe he could be an innocent vigilante instead of a serial killer), until I end up with egg on my face when it turns out my hapless victim is innocent...

...but I'm really not willing to give Macavitar the benefit of the doubt today. Like, not at all. Even for a heartbeat.

MacavityLock was low-key and dispassionate in the mini, too (which was why I was giving him the benefit of the doubt here)...but he really isn't coming across like a poor beleaguered townie who knows he's been framed. Even his late AtEs don't ring with sincerity. (What kind of defence is "Don't lynch me, because then we'll be in a 4-1-1 tomorrow"? Actually, if we lynch

anyone else who isn't you

, we're far more likely to be in a 4-1-1!)

Namecop/Tracker, Day-Vig/Triggered-Vig/Hired Assassin, and Jailkeeper/Doctor/Bulletproof were somewhat redundant, so maaaaaaybe I can buy two mason/recruiting-type roles. But his role can't even be proven, since Cow/Brienne would be just be killed tonight. So given a choice between a suspicious-looking player who was tracked to the Lannister kill target and gave a shady role-related excuse AFTER Cow revealed, and...um,

anybody else

in the suspect pool, is there really any question?

I don't think the flavour is

that

implausible (because Barristan never reformed the Kingsguard, and Sandor didn't leave the Lannisters until later, either). But remember that scum all have fakeclaims, and could even get a fake role PM written by Faraday in the mini. Questioning the flavour is just a matter of how creative we think MacLock and Faraday are.

That said, I find it hilarious that the only live target he risked choosing happened to be Brienne. Seriously, what were the odds of that? It's like he was falling through a mine shaft and desperately reached for a ledge, only that ledge turned out to be a lever that opened a trap door at the bottom of the pit leading to an even deeper mine shaft.

What? That metaphor made perfect sense in my head.

I'd still be interested in hearing your MoI case, though. You could share a piece of our moral victory if MagnaofIllusion turns out to be the last Greyjoy.

Macavitar, whom do you think is the last Lannister?

==========================================
Also, I'm kind of torn on CSL. I think he'd have a fantastic reason as a Greyjoy for quickhammering the doctor before a claim--after all, given all the suspicion he was under, why not take one for the team? But oddly, I believe that CSL might be town. He's doing a good job of acting the contrite townie who knows he blundered. I almost want to lynch Unsight or MoI before him.

That said, I can't rule out CSL as a Greyjoy anymore, because I don't trust that goddamn team and their distancing.

[CSL]

Mina, your metaphor makes sense.

[Macavitar]

Hey, MacavityLock. Let me ask you something. Why didn't you claim days ago and ask for Brienne to come forward, given how tight a situation we were in? I mean, it's not like you'd be asking her to

role-claim

. All you do is remove yourself and another player from the suspect pool. Instead, you forced Cow to waste an investigation on you. Or did your PM tell you that Brienne might be a tracker?

There was no indication that Brienne was otherwise vanilla.

MacavityLock was low-key and dispassionate in the mini, too (which was why I was giving him the benefit of the doubt here)...but he really isn't coming across like a poor beleaguered townie who knows he's been framed. Even his late AtEs don't ring with sincerity. (What kind of defence is "Don't lynch me, because then we'll be in a 4-1-1 tomorrow"? Actually, if we lynch

anyone else who isn't you

, we're far more likely to be in a 4-1-1!)

I'm realizing that this situation is actually quite similar to one I found myself many moons ago. Please enjoy the last day of Wheel of Time Mini, and compare and contrast.

Macavitar, whom do you think is the last Lannister?

I don't know yet. I see no reason that it couldn't be any of the unconfirmeds, including you.

----

The case on Magna starts right around here:

By the way, we should quickly deal with the mechanics of making this double lynch work today. Here's my thinking:

While we're still wagoning, don't let anyone get past L-2.

Once we as a town have pretty much come to a conclusion as to who the two lynchees will be, things will need to be coordinated. Both lynchees should be brought to 4 votes (4 votes being a majority of the remaining votes after the regular 7 vote majority today). Once both are at 4 votes, one of the lynchees gets 3 more votes, and we've successfully lynched our two choices. This plan occupies 11 votes, leaving two votes "free". This means that even if our two lynchees don't cooperate, this plan can succeed.

Mac’s 2005 is very much what needs to happen. I’d even suggest we use FOSes in lieu of votes for the short term to make sure we don’t have and accident mis-fire on the secondary death.

Since there is no support for Unsight at this point I’m going to commit my vote to

UNVOTE: Unsight
VOTE: Axelrod

I don't have time to actually write up a full case and all tonight. There's no need to rush, so like I asked, please at least give me some time.

[hasdgfas]

So given a choice between a suspicious-looking player who was tracked to the Lannister kill target and gave a shady role-related excuse AFTER Cow revealed

dang it. dang it. That's not quite accurate. Ugh, second thoughts abound in my head after I went and reread what happened.

Mac, why did you say "I think I know what happened"?

[Macavitar]

Mac, why did you say "I think I know what happened"?

The player I targeted last night also turned up dead, and you apparently had received some sort of info incriminating me. I was pretty sure that those two things were related somehow, though I didn't know exactly how.

[Mina]

Cow, if you were Mafia, you'd personally killed Mikujin last night, there had already been a flipped namecop, and then someone called you confirmed scum, voted you immediately out of the gates, and asked you to full claim, what information do you think your accuser would've had on you? This isn't only a rhetorical question. How do you think you'd have reacted? I'd be interested in knowing.

Personally, I think I'd have been able to piece together that someone had seen me target Mikujin. Also, his claim only makes sense if you or he was roleblocked or jailkept N3, which I find extremely unlikely. (I have a suspicion that Mikujin the watcher was a substitute for xvart the roleblocker. And pity we don't know what Benmage was up to then, but I'd have expected Benmage to jail Unsight.)

I'll admit he did think well on his feet (although he could've planned that fakeclaim ages ago). I suppose it's

possible

that he's town. But he's by far the best candidate for Lannister scum, and I won't vote for someone other than Macavitar today.

And the N1 and N2 Lannister kills make so much sense for MacavityLock. jvw and LMP were both suspicious of him.

Cow, there's nothing whatsoever in your PM to suggest that there's a mason out there looking for you, is there?

There was no indication that Brienne was otherwise vanilla.

You're missing my point.

By asking Brienne to name-claim, you're not revealing her role. All you do is help yourself find her.

Why didn't you ask Brienne to come forward earlier? You would have made yourself AND her confirmed town. Instead...um, you decided to take a shot in the dark at a soft-claimed watcher who would probably die that night, just because he looked innocent to you and therefore MIGHT CONCEIVABLY be Brienne.

Also, I don't see the relationship between the game you linked to and this one. Sucks to be lynched by PoE, but I think you looked a lot more innocent there, and there's more damning evidence against you in this game.

That said, your point on MoI is a great catch. I have to go to bed now, but I've noticed a few MoI Greyjoy tells (other than the similarity of his mob analysis with Percy's) that suggest he might have extra information or be working in tandem with Mikujin. I'll elaborate on them tomorrow. I should still give Unsight and CSL cursory look, also.

[Eddard Stark]

Vote count 5.1 The 'I'm in a hurry' votecount.

CSL (1) [RichardGHP]
Macavitar (3) - [Hasdgfas, Mina, CSL]

Not voting (5) [diddin, Macavitar, MagnaofIllusion, Thor665, Unsight]
With 9 alive 5 lynch

[hasdgfas]

Cow, if you were Mafia, you'd personally killed Mikujin last night, there had already been a flipped namecop, and then someone called you confirmed scum, voted you immediately out of the gates, and asked you to full claim, what information do you think your accuser would've had on you? This isn't only a rhetorical question. How do you think you'd have reacted? I'd be interested in knowing.

I don't know, it's never happened to me. I probably would assume cop, honestly, and flail around trying to find a reason to say that they're wrong.

Cow, there's nothing whatsoever in your PM to suggest that there's a mason out there looking for you, is there?

Nope, nothing at all.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Eddard didn’t mention my V/LA for the weekend that I can see.

Don’t have tons of time right now but will drop a couple of things of import into the thread right now.

Claim

– Hodor, Innocent Aligned.

I’m a loyal and brave Stark servant who works in the stable. My large frame (thought to be created by Giant blood in my ancestors) is imposing, but my simple minded nature makes me but Vanilla.

As I often do in complex Theme Games (see Victorian Vampire or Weeds Mafia) I prepared a breadcrumb Day 1.

H

ow does this qualify as anything but filler?

O

r do you think Richard’s claim is more credible given the fact that it is flavour correct?

D

isagree with your conclusion as I said in the quote – it was simply an observation that admitting to a behaviour does not inherently make it less suspicious.

O

rdinarily parroting is generally considered a not pro-town move.

R

elative to this circumstance SSBF admitted to the behaviour, regardless of whether he cross-posted or not.

The first letter of the first five lines spells HODOR. The awkwardness of the construction of that post should have been a clear tip if anyone was looking.

On the Case against Mac –

Being tracked to a dead body tends to be pretty damning. See [REDACTED] as a perfect example of why. That said I have a few glaring things that make me very much doubt he is a Lannister.

1. The nature of the claim he has made himself flies in the face of logical assumption of it being a fake-claim. He would have had to gambled about the name of a specific source material person who was not already dead to construct his Masonizer claim. If he mis-fires and that person isn’t in the game he’s dead. At this point in the game a Mass Claim is pretty much assured to confirm that Brienne existed. Any number of other claims (such as Tracker or any other weak information role) would have been easier to concoct.
2. The nature of the Lannister kill N4 makes it HIGHLY unlikely that the last Lannister feels they can easily be POEd at endgame. They chose to kill not Locke (who could potentially end their chances of winning with a single scan), Thor (likely Town with the proven Daykill) or Cow (100% confirmed) but Miku. So the last Lannister has to be someone who didn’t fear the possibility of being scanned and didn’t feel the need to lower the ranks of the confirmed or near confirmed Town. Mac certainly doesn’t fall into this category.

The last Lannister is likely either diddin (who has already been scanned) or someone generally considered clear but not confirmed directly (Richard or Mina).

I’ll be back to defend against whatever cases I see come my way late Monday or Tuesday.

[diddin]

Wait Wait Wait.

So has, you are claiming watcher with Macavatar visiting Miku last night? I'm not exactly clear on the current situation.

[RichardGHP]

^ If this is true I can get past CSL's horrible play at the start of today.

[hasdgfas]

Wait Wait Wait.

So has, you are claiming watcher with Macavatar visiting Miku last night? I'm not exactly clear on the current situation.

tracker.

[CSL]

He may have killed him. There were no vig counter-claims when SSBF claimed vig, so I'm guessing he's a Lannister. I don't believe that Greyjoys would be killing other Greyjoys.

[RichardGHP]

Unvote, Vote: Macavitar

HoS: CSL

[CSL]

Macavitar is at L-1.

I advise against hammering until everyone gets their points out. I've already voted, so...

[Mina]

Thank you so much for claiming to be the last Greyjoy, MagnaofIllusion. You're saving us a lot of trouble. I know you're screwed by process of elimination if we lynch MacavityLock today.

It's pretty obvious why the Lannisters killed Mikujin over Locke, isn't it? Because Mikujin said, "You know what, I don't think Locke will have much to report today. Because I may just have a bit of extra information that I don't feel like sharing, but that I want to hint at even though it guarantees that my information is useless, just so you all know I'm a power role and are more likely to confirm me in endgame. Because I've been keeping

an eye

on a few people, if you know what I mean. "

If Mikujin is a Watcher, then killing Locke guarantees that you lose the game tomorrow. Mikujin had obviously watched Locke on N3, and would watch him again on N4.

And killing a confirmed player would've been an even worse move. Mikujin won't be any less dead on N5. That would give Locke not one, but

two

extra investigations. The watcher had to die, especially since the Lannister roleblocker was dead.

I mean, I did the math in our Kingsguard QT. Had Mikujin and Locke both died and been innocent, we'd have only two mislynches left, AND we'd be in Prisoner's Dilemma if we lynched a Greyjoy instead of a Lannister on D6. Our situation was grim enough for the Lannister not to be too worried about PoE.

In fact, Mikujin dying pretty much clears CSL and Richard (who wouldn't have picked up on the hint) of being the last Lannister. The only doubt I have about you being a Greyjoy is that you're the brightest bulb left in the suspect pool. And if you

let

Mikujin softclaim in a multi-faction game...yeah. Not a smart move at all.

The last Lannister is likely either diddin (who has already been scanned) or

someone generally considered clear but not confirmed directly (Richard or Mina)

.

So is that your plan if ML is lynched today, Magna? Lynch CSL and Unsight, then leave me and Richard until LYLO and try to get one of us to lynch the other. You may just have a chance.

That said...

Unvote

I still want MacLock lynched today, but I don't want a hammer just yet.

Magna, I don't particularly care if you're Hodor or Randall Tarly or Old Nan. You still haven't claimed your actual

role

.

At the very least, claim whether you have the ability to take any night actions. Because Cow still hasn't claimed all his results, you know.

[Mina]

EBWOP: Oops.

My large frame (thought to be created by Giant blood in my ancestors) is imposing, but

my simple minded nature makes me but Vanilla

.

Um...never mind that last part.

But that brings me to something else.

MoI, now is your last chance to change your story. Is there any reason--ANY reason at all--why you'd lie as town about your role?

[Mina]

Another EBWOP:

Mikujin won't be any less dead on N5.

Change that to "Mikujin won't be any less alive, of course."

One last point. I've been thinking on something I've said to Cow:

Cow, if you were Mafia, you'd personally killed Mikujin last night, there had already been a flipped namecop, and then someone called you confirmed scum, voted you immediately out of the gates, and asked you to full claim, what information do you think your accuser would've had on you? This isn't only a rhetorical question. How do you think you'd have reacted? I'd be interested in knowing.

And I just realized that was the wrong question.

This is for Thor, CSL, Unsight, diddin, MagnaofIllusion, and Richard.

When you saw Cow's first "Hey, guys! Macavitar is scum. Fullclaim, please!" what did you think Cow's role was? What information did you think Cow had?

I think I'd have figured it out--and MacavityLock is smart enough to have caught on to the safest thing to claim before he posted an hour later--but I'm biased because I already knew Cow's role.

The answer to this question will affect how we read MacavityLock...actually, no it won't. It will just affect how much I stress out until we see his flip.

[Mina]

I need to stop spamming the thread.

At this point in the game a Mass Claim is pretty much assured to confirm that Brienne existed. Any number of other claims (such as Tracker or any other weak information role) would have been easier to concoct.

I think it's obvious that Cow had a weak information role. It wouldn't have been smart to have risked counterclaiming him (particularly with a Namecop and Evil Watcher also having flipped). ML was stuck claiming something really esoteric that wouldn't be counter-claimed.

But the first part is the only

sort

of decent point in your defence of MacLock (it's still not decent enough for me to think that you believe in what you're arguing).

That said, I can still see that claim coming from scum. "Hmm, Catelyn. What sounds like a Catelyn-ish role? Um. I know! How about a mason-finder? I'm desperately searching to find my lost...oh, shit, Sansa is dead and Arya was a fakeclaim. How about Brienne, even though I never once try to seek her out in ACoK (I just visit Renly's camp, where she happens to be, and then we leave together)? I'm sure there's a Brienne in ACoK Mafia. And I'll say that I can't tell if I've been roleblocked, so this covers my ass if I acccidentally target Brienne."

Also, it's unprovable, and he can use that as a desperate attempt to stay alive. "Hey, let me live one more day! I can confirm myself to Brienne!" *kills Brienne that night* "Gosh darn it!"

And of course, this leads into the question I asked above. Could you have guessed Cow was a tracker?

[Macavitar]

There was no indication that Brienne was otherwise vanilla.

You're missing my point.

By asking Brienne to name-claim, you're not revealing her role. All you do is help yourself find her.

Why didn't you ask Brienne to come forward earlier? You would have made yourself AND her confirmed town. Instead...um, you decided to take a shot in the dark at a soft-claimed watcher who would probably die that night, just because he looked innocent to you and therefore MIGHT CONCEIVABLY be Brienne.

I think you're missing

my

point. I had no reason to think that Brienne was either a power role or vanilla, and I did not want to paint a target on either of our backs. After the disaster that was name-claiming in the AGoT game, the thought only barely crossed my mind. Everyone who I targeted was someone I thought might conceivably be Brienne. I'm actually pretty disappointed that I was right, but blocked.

Also, I don't see the relationship between the game you linked to and this one. Sucks to be lynched by PoE, but I think you looked a lot more innocent there, and there's more damning evidence against you in this game.

My point was comparing the way I post during that last day, when I was the obv-lynch from others' perspectives, to the way I'm posting here. If you don't think they're similar, so be it.

Mina, based on your last couple spams, I guess I can only take your suspicion of me as a compliment. You're wrong, but thanks for thinking I could actually pull a claim like this out of my ass.

----

Richard, did you even read my claim and subsequent explanation for the Track? If you're not interested in reading, why the hell are you in this game?

----

Based on his reaction to hascow's info, not even considering my claim, diddin definitely looks Lanny-ish.

[Thor665]

Egads, as games get closer to Lylo they always become so much work.

Initial feelings;

@Mina - to answer your question, I probably would have suspected either a Cop, Watcher, or Tracker of some stripe as those are really the only roles that say "hay, found scummorz!". If it's a straight Cop Macsumitar would have already been screwed, and with either of the other two he's relatively obligated to claim targets honestly (certainly the final one)

Biggest scum point against Mac - laying low and not name claiming and requesting earlier and target of night kill.
Biggest town point in favor - large balls to nameclaim your target as a character who had not nameclaimed and thus may or may not be in the game

@FLUFF AWARE PLAYERS - I'd like to see a bit more discussion about the fluff relevance of this Brienne claim thing. Is it "safe" to assume Brienne was in the game? (e.g. is it like claiming a Princess Leia in a Star Ways theme?)

Mina's reaction to MoI's defense of Mac is interesting - there's something odd going on amongst them. MoI's defense feels honest enough to me and I think he made a good point or two - Mina's aggressive attack against him is odd because it's not like there are scum pairs left out there, we're really looking at two solo scum, so why get so itchy about someone defending someone else?