/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Zorblag]

Troll believes that roleblocker be at L-3 at this point. Unless two of the three unclaimed be hiders Troll be fine with it as our choice.

Troll did take a nap and came to the conclusion that it might make sense to give scum a rolecop and then just plan on a mass claim on Day Three after all the town power roles have had a chance to do two nights work and get some set of results and then coordinate. That would then make the rolecop useless past the first couple days when them no be all that likely to catch a power role on either given day and it would stop the mafia from having any roles that actively interfere with the town power roles. If there were more time Troll might see about arguing for that (as power roles will tend to come out over time anyhow) but for now Troll will just toss it out there as a thought.

@mith, Troll also realized that the reason that Troll thinks that a hider should claim even if we assign a roleblocker and that mith doesn't probably stems from the same difference of opinions about how bad it be to go with a roleblocker if we got just one claimed hider. Troll still thinks it be wise to both for the ability to protect a potential hider and for the locking out of fake claims but if things go well we should have another claim or two before we make the choice anyhow. There be no good reason for either Kmd4390 or My Milked Eek not to be around before deadline.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[mith]

Hm. That's not a terrible idea. If we were to vote for Rolecop, an early massclaim is likely a good idea. (Don't know that that's enough to leap to "Giving them a Rolecop is a good idea", though.)

[Zorblag]

@mith, yeah, part of the reason Troll likes it be that Troll no be so worried about giving a rolecop to the mafia in the first place and the mass claim day three would just make the rolecop even weaker. As Troll said, it no be something Troll will push now. If we get a hider claim from one of our holdouts in the next couple hours Troll might be more active but it be unlikely that Troll will convince people without that in the time that be left without that extra hider stuff to help.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Mr. Flay]

Janitor has been given to the Mafia; one role is still left to be chosen. 11:00AM GMT is a little less than 10 hours from this post.

Rolecop (4) -- Zorblag, Amished, ooba, VasudeVa
Roleblocker (8) -- Kmd4390, Papa Zito, SpyreX, mith, DrippingGoofball, Elmo, Rhinox, Slicey
Assassin (1) -- zoraster

20 alive, 11 votes to choose.

[mith]

Going to bed. Will wake myself up before deadline in case I need to switch, though given the total lack of posting that seems unlikely.

[zoraster]

vote: rolecop

[populartajo]

Ok, I dont even want to comment on what dgb did. Could be useful in the long run only if dgb is town which Im not still sure its the case.

Now that we have the janitor locked decisions kinda become more easy. Im not that thrilled with the choice but not as dissapointed as Id expect due to my progress of dehaterizing the role. So with that, the assassin is still in the nightmare zone for the power of additional kills in a likely power role lynch claim. The rolecop seems too useful for getting rid of power roles and optimizing the janitor shenanigans. The roleblocker seems still the weakest, not only for limited shoting, also for the fact that its partially useless if we consider scum didnt give us protection roles (which I think its a safe assumption) and gave us the trackers and the vigs.

[populartajo]

Im digging Zorb's idea but I really think its too late for getting suport for a massclaim (clearly not a very popular suggestion) and then a rolecop for the clash of egos effect.

Vote: Roleblocker.

[Zorblag]

@populartajo, the rolecop shouldn't help the scum use the janitor any more efficiently offhand unless we be planning on having town lie about their roles if them be about to get lynched (which a janitor makes an even worse idea than normal.) Troll disagrees that the rolecop helps get rid of town power roles as much as people seem to think it does but that be mostly irrelevant at this point. If you favor the roleblocker then you should be voting for it. We no have a lot of time left.

It be at L-3 right now. Troll probably plans to switch Troll's vote there before Troll heads off to Troll's cave because Troll does feel that it be a fair amount better than the assassin even if Troll likes the rolecop a bit more. ekiM has said that him should be about at the deadline and him no be voting. If we had no other actions that should be enough to let the town actually be making a choice here rather than having it be randomized.

*edit* and you voted, so that be good.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[populartajo]

Oh yes, the janitor only works on lynches. For some reason I imagined an scenario where they find a power role and then get rid of it with the ???? for fakeclaiming later that role.

But, Zorb, the rolecop DOES help scum find power roles more quickly than the roleblocker. Why do you disahree with it?

[Zorblag]

@populartajo, the rolecop does help the scum find town power roles to an extent, yes. Troll just thinks that most here be overestimating it's effectiveness at doing so. Power roles tend to come out on their own when them be about to get lynched or when them have to share information (to stop what them be pretty sure is a mislynch or because them have a reason them think someone is scum or whatever.) At the start of the game the roleblocker has a 1/4 chance of hitting a power role and there really no be a great reason that even if them find a power role that the mafia clearly wouldn't have killed that player on their own had them no had a role cop (it sort of gives them a second try if the first one failed, sort of.) That goes up as the game goes on but then as the power roles come out on their own the power to find town power roles be reduced. Especially if we did something like the day three mass claim the rolecop would have (Troll believes) a pretty small impact on the game overall.

Others seem to think that a rolecop would be finding our power roles quickly and leading to their deaths. Troll just thinks that it no would do all that much to change the rate at which power roles got killed.

But as Troll has said, this no be the time to argue that; the chances of enough people being about who would listen, agree and vote that way be minimal. If Troll hadn't been pushing for the hider claim (which Troll felt more strongly about) Troll might have been talking about this more earlier but Troll no felt it was worth fighting two battles that people seemed dug in about at the same time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, or to use expected values (and to simplify quite a bit) Troll sort of thinks that it would take the scum's night kills from having an expected value of around 1/2 of a power role to around 1 power role over the course of the first two nights. Troll could probably work that out more precisely but that should be about the ballpark figure (the 1/2 be low Troll be pretty sure and the 1 be off though Troll no be sure which way, Troll would have to think it through.) With a mass claim on Day Three Troll would probably take that increase in expected power role death over the bother that a roleblocker could cause.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Plumegranate]

Hm. That's not a terrible idea. If we were to vote for Rolecop, an early massclaim is likely a good idea. (Don't know that that's enough to leap to "Giving them a Rolecop is a good idea", though.)

That. I'd rather give the scum a Roleblocker which will probably lead to fewer early PR deaths and then lynch scum in the unmentionables so we don't need to massclaim in anything but a favorable situation.

VOTE: Roleblocker

Re: DGB's shenanigans. At this point it's information which needs a context to be understood, particularly in light of the fact that we haven't even properly gotten to Day 1 - that goes for both what it says about DGB's alignment and what it says about the reactions of those who faced it. I don't hate Janitor so much (and I am glad it kept us out of the Assassin route. Sorry if this wasn't clear in ISO: I simply feel that giving the scum the potential for extra kills on top of their regular Night kills is something much less desirable than any of the other choices we have. Vigs are good, on balance, because they put more kills in the hands of Town. Assassin is bad because it can put two bonus kills in the hands of scum. Even if an outed PR is protected the extra kill gets saved and can be used later - its bare saving grace is that it can't be used too much later).

[Zorblag]

@Plumegranate, Troll thinks that saying a role blocker over a role cop will probably lead to fewer early town power role deaths be an exaggeration. Having a role cop does increase the rate at which scum can kill power roles to some degree but probably not as much as most people think that it does. The role blocker probably also increases that rate slightly (not nearly as much) as well as having a better chance of hurting the towns information gathering abilities in the long run and making mass claims less desirable should we want to consider them. Troll also thinks that an early massclaim be likely to be desirable to help close the information gap between town and scum.

But that be neither here nor there. Possibly it makes sense to talk about this after the game but for now the question for Troll be does it make sense to hammer the roleblocker before Troll heads off to Troll's cave to be sure that it gets done.

Troll suspects that the answer to that be yes. We be unlikely to get any others on to claim and even if we did it would now be most difficult for anything other than the roleblocker to be a choice for the second scum PR. While Troll could leave it in ekiM's hands Troll no sees much reason to.

If anyone has a reason for Troll to hold off on voting role blocker do say so in the next 20 minutes or so. Otherwise Troll will do so and move us to Day One.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, a roleblocker it be.

Remember that scum have to pick their roles in the next 24 hours. During that time it be best not to talk about suspicions.

Unvote: Rolecop

Vote: Roleblocker

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Herodotus]

I'm online and reading, and tending to like Troll's idea.

Preview edit: is it too late? I've lost track of the count.

[Herodotus]

So it is.

Roleblocker + Janitor, with no real hider claims.

[Mr. Flay]

Mafia have been awarded the Janitor and Roleblocker roles. They have 24 hours to send me their choice of who gets which role (via PM). No need to copy the other mods, I will tell them.

Rolecop (4) -- Zorblag, Amished, ooba, VasudeVa, zoraster
Roleblocker (11) -- Kmd4390, Papa Zito, SpyreX, mith, DrippingGoofball, Elmo, Rhinox, Slicey, populartajo, Plumegranate, Zorblag

It is now Day One. With 20 alive, it will take 11 to lynch. Day One will end in 14 days (August 25th, 12:30AM US Central Time), with any time saved being banked for Day Two.

[zoraster]

vote: DGB

You can call anything a gambit, but sometimes it's just playing anti-town. That's the case here.

Fos: Amished

as well, but DGB has my vote for the foreseeable future.

[ekiM]

Remember that scum have to pick their roles in the next 24 hours. During that time it be best not to talk about suspicions.

[mith]

Good, we're decided. Back to bed.

[DrippingGoofball]

... but DGB has my vote for the foreseeable future.

Nice, now you don't have to hunt scum, you can avoid the risk of taking positions that might compromise you or your buddies, and you can't get caught by vote analysis.

Kinda like lurking to victory, the fake-tunneling version.

[Ellibereth]

Quick Check in. Still LA for a few more days though.
Even though it doesn't matter now was NOT A HIDER.

[mith]

Actually, it does matter, because if we do have a Hider, the scum now have it narrowed down to two.

I guess whoever is left (Kmd4390 and My Milked Eek, I think?) should go ahead and Hider-claim.

[Zorblag]

@Ellibereth, As mith says, that claim did matter. Happily (in Troll's opinion) it be what Troll would have had you do if it were up to Troll. Troll now believes that it be in the towns interest for both of the remaining players to claim hider or non-hider with their next post.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh