Mini 1021: Battousai's Mountaintnous Mountain Mafia (Over)

[iamausername]

It's not usually done, I know, but I have reason to believe we should massclaim immediately in this particular game. I'm really hoping I don't have to explain why.

random.org gives this order for claiming:

PranaDevil
dalt54321
Xite91
Korashk
LoudmouthLee
commieB
iamausername
havingfitz
ConfidAnon
Leech
Saga
Nexus

Prana, I expect to see a claim in your next post.

Oh, and

vote: commieB

for not confirming yet.

[iamausername]

It's not usually done, I know, but I have reason to believe we should massclaim immediately in this particular game. I'm really hoping I don't have to explain why.

Beautifully done. I had to stop for a moment before it clicked, at which point I had a good hearty laugh at that, purely because it made me stop and think. Even if you're scum I might keep you around if you keep the comedy up. .

It wasn't a joke. I really believe that a massclaim is a viable strategy here, but the more it gets discussed beforehand, the less effective it is likely to be. Think about it.

[iamausername]

- username didn't realize that this game was all vanilla, probably an innocent mistaske but I'm keeping my eye on him/her

If that were the case, havingfitz would be totally justified in his vote, because a massclaim immediately in most games would be a terrible idea, so it would be scummy for me to suggest it if I thought this was a regular old closed M. Normal.

But I didn't think that; I was fully aware of the setup. My thought was that there was a pretty good chance that at least one person wouldn't be, and therefore some chance that a scum player would be one of those people, and therefore a minute chance that by encouraging an immediate massclaim, we could trick a scum into outing themselves straight away by claiming a power role.

In all likelihood, it wasn't going to happen, but I figured it was worth a shot, since there's absolutely no downside if it didn't work. And either way, it was more likely to give me some kind of read on other players than the typical random voting approach. And certain reactions are striking me as slightly more likely to come from town players, so I deem my dumb plan a roaring success.

Since this is a no-claim game (as everyone will claim townie), it makes a lot less sense to bandwagon for no reason

Only if you think the entire purpose of bandwagoning for no reason is to get a claim out of someone, which is rather putting the cart before the horse.

But I know that is how games used to be played back in the Stone Age.

Much more lucrative place for a vote. Everyone come and hop on the Leech wagon.

I'm not seeing what sets him apart from other content-free posters like, say, commie, who already has a convenient wagon going on. Maybe you should hop onto that one instead?

I'll try and keep updated vote counts, because I like having that information readily available.

You can generally rely on the mod to do that for you.

p.s. LoudmouthLee, we've actually briefly played in a game together before, though it doesn't surprise me if you don't remember.

[iamausername]

I disagree about placing the third vote on the wagon being a tell in the RVS (It's very situational as a tell), but in the interest of getting a hearty bandwagon going,

Unvote, Vote: Prana

I would like a response to this even more now:

Much more lucrative place for a vote. Everyone come and hop on the Leech wagon.

I'm not seeing what sets him apart from other content-free posters like, say, commie, who already has a convenient wagon going on. Maybe you should hop onto that one instead?

Here is some motivation for you.

Unvote, Vote: ConfidAnon

[iamausername]

CA, you say you are just trying to get a bandwagon going on anyone, but... you moved your vote away from LML, who had several other votes, and who you had actually given some kind of reason to vote onto Leech, who had no other votes for no reason. Why on earth would you think that that is an effective way of getting a bandwagon going?

And why are you just trying to get a random wagon going anyway when there are clearly actual serious cases being made in the game?

The way I see it, all this "I'm just trying to get a wagon going" stuff is just an excuse to avoid accountability for your votes, and I'm not going to stand for that.

[iamausername]

Coincidentally, the only actual cases I see are the ones that LmL has made on myself and Prana.

You're not paying very good attention then.

It's interesting to note that the second that is pointed out he is strongly pushing for my lynch. I would go so far as to say that CA is actually trying to push for my lynch now because he was caught out, and can no longer hide behind the random voting.

^5

Wrong wording, perhaps. I don't intend to push for a lynch this early, but I did suspect him.

Pssssssssssshyeah. I think you need to go see the wizard, and ask him for some courage, dude.

I generally FoS before actually voting, that's how I play.

This is an awful way to play, and you should stop. Just FYI.

Xite, I get where you're coming from here, but I'm just not feeling the scumminess from Nexus. I think you're equating typical bad newbie habits with scumminess, and the correlation just isn't really there. Much as I would love the use of FoSing without a vote somewhere else to be a lynch-on-sight offence.

Here, I'll give my scumlist that is based -mostly- on gut

Saga
Nexus
Havingfitz

No Korashk? What happened to this?

I'll try and keep updated vote counts, because I like having that information readily available.

My scum-senses are tingling

[iamausername]

^5

?

^ = High

I hope you can figure out the rest.

It means I agree with the quoted post.

It seems scummy when players keep votecounts. It's hard to explain why though

Well, it is a textbook example of IIoA.

[iamausername]

So, ConfidAnon appears to be pretty blatantly responding to his wagon by lying low and waiting for it to blow over. I am disappointed that this appears to be working for him. Really, look at this post, it is the scummiest post in the game:

Wrong wording, perhaps. I don't intend to push for a lynch this early, but I did suspect him.

He is trying to act like there has been some misunderstanding here, but let's take a look at that original 'wrong wording' post:

No, I am pushing for your lynch based on the curious comment after you said you tried to start a bandwagon. It seems, to me at least, that the only motivation to call something out as "curious" is to leave it open as an avenue of suspicion. This is hypocritical in regards to you wanting to start a bandwagon.

No, I am pushing for your lynch based on the curious comment after you said you tried to start a bandwagon.

I am pushing for your lynch

That seems pretty clear cut to me. No, what has happened here is that ConfidAnon has started out being aggressive against PranaDevil when it seemed like he'd have a lot of support, then immediately run away with his tail between his legs when that support started to disappear and some of the heat was turned on him.

Compare and contrast with LML, who if anything becomes even more aggressive whenever the heat is turned in his direction. Guess which one strikes me as a more natural town response?

VOTE: dalt54321

for trying to come across so helpless, ex.

"so i really don't know whats going on yet,"

lying about this being his/her first game (http://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewto ... 2#p1196368)

Man, I click on this link expecting it to be some innocent newbie game that I've never seen before, and instead I get...

that

game. I feel like I've been goatsed.

In dalt's defence, he posted twice in that game before being replaced, so it doesn't seem particularly unreasonable for him to discount it. Which is not to say that he hasn't been playing up the "I'm so clueless" angle, just that I wouldn't say he has been outright lying in doing so.

His mass claim plan was not a joke, if it worked as how he would have planned then the scum might have claimed a pr and seeing the game's setup the town would know that they are most likely the mafia.

I'm glad somebody understands.

I'm really leaning towards Prana and CA looking scummy because they're overposters

Do you not see any significance in the fact that CA conspicuously stopped being an overposter as soon as he came under pressure?

I'm going to be honest with you all. I will not be very useful to you all until there has been at least one lynch. I am not good at picking out textual tells and analyzing posts.

Forgive me if I don't care about your opinion and what you find suspicious. You're an admitted noob.

Finally though, the reason your vote was still on Lee... you "forgot" to remove it, but yet it was done to see how he reacted? Sorry you can't have it both ways.

Yeah, this is the first point against Nexus that I'm not willing to write off as a newbie mistake. There is clearly some dishonesty going on here.

[iamausername]

Also, maybe the wrong wording was on his part? Just sayin

I'm pretty sure that is what he was saying, yes. What I'm saying is that I don't believe him. I think he meant exactly what he said, he had every intention of pushing for Prana's lynch, and the fact that he is trying to back away from that stinks to high heaven. Clearer?

Seriously...did you expect any town PRs to reveal themselves? Though I do support scum claims. You first?

You claim to have been seriously trying to catch scum off guard, and someone actually posted a comment that fits the bill. Oddly enough, I haven't seen you mention it a single time. If those were really your intentions, why didnt you pursue them when someone did react in the exact manner you described? Clearly with the people laughing at your proposal before Havingfitz replied, that is an indication that he posted before reading the comments about your suggestion being funny. Not reading the thread before you post brings up an entirely new area that you could have pursued. Instead of doing any of this, you just dismissed your idea. I don't see why you'd go to the lengths to actually attempt that gambit just to abandon it so quickly.

VOTE: iamausername for rolefishing.
Seriously...did you expect any town PRs to reveal themselves? Though I do support scum claims. You first?

You're funny. Do you even read mod-posts?

Apparently as well as iamausername

Xite tipped havingfitz off before I had any chance to pursue the gambit to the point where it might actually garner anything useful. If I'd been around to make a post immediately after havingfitz's first I certainly would have pursued the issue further.

---

I really dislike Lateralus's contributions to the continued assault on poor ol' Nexus. It doesn't feel like he's trying to determine anything about Nexus's alignment, it feels like he is trying to win an argument, like this will 'prove' Nexus's scumminess, and we will all be compelled to vote Nexus when he does.

I could definitely get behind a Lat wagon right now.

[iamausername]

@IAM: Do you have a pro-town read on "Poor old Nexus"?

Yes. Definitively yes. I feel like a whole lot of the points that have been raised against him have just been blowing some poor communication on his part completely out of proportion. I think the way he's been throwing his unedited thoughts out as they occurred to him is actually highly indicative of a pro-town mindset, I'd expect scum to be much more structured and planned. People are pouncing on the inconsistencies in these thoughts, but I don't think inconsistency in and of itself is a scumtell. Pro-town players can and do change their minds, and Nexus's explanations for when and why his mind changed about CA, for example, made perfect sense to me. Most of the points brought up against him just leave me thinking "why is that scummy?" and I'm not seeing a lot of explanations that sway me at all.

As I said, I think the thing where he apparently left his vote on you "to see how you'd react" AND because "he forgot it was there" was actually suspect. I don't buy his explanation, any time someone says they were doing something "to see how you'd react", it is probably a cop out because they didn't really have a good reason for doing it, and I think that is definitely the case here. But I don't think that outweighs the good feelings I have about his play as a whole.

I'm actually feeling like a HF lynch would be almost better than a Dalt lynch. Has HF been on any wagons at all?

I'm with you on this, I think havingfitz is pretty much coasting on his dalt vote. Like he thinks because he's found a proven lie, it's OK to stubbornly insist that it outweighs anything else that ever happened to the point that nothing else is worth commenting on.

dalt is just useless, and I think he would be equally useless regardless of alignment.

Anyways, I got enough information from it to do this, though;

Unvote, Vote: Lat

We'll see where this takes us

:goodposting:

Llamafluff replaces Korashk

:goodposting:

2) Theory says we should no lynch (as 2:9 has better town odds then 2:10 IIRC), sad no one brought that up, but figured unless someone else liked mountanious no one would have. This of course is just theory, as if we ran the game by RNG.

I think it's best to save the No Lynch for if we get down to a MyLo situation. If we no lynch today, it's easy for scum to pick off a townie that no one much suspects. With less players, it's a lot more likely that every townie will be suspected by

someone

, so the No Lynch would do a lot more to actually lower the suspicion pool at that point.

I find it somewhat suspect that you unvoted the current voteleader onto someone without a bandwagon at all.

I find it quite the opposite. But I guess our opposing opinions about Nexus probably have a lot to do with that, so.

---

Hey, Lat. Who else is scummy besides Nexus?

[iamausername]

havingfitz, if you are so sure that dalt was straight up lying in a deliberate attempt to trick us into thinking he was a total newb so we'd go easy on him... why would he tell us that he's played a bunch of games on some other site? You think he deliberately tried to conceal the fact that he joined a game on this site, made a random vote and then flaked, but then decided to be completely open about the fact that he has played a lot of games elsewhere, presumably to completion? Don't you think that would be a really fucking stupid thing to do?

Also:

Unvote, Vote: Lateralus

That "You think Nexus is town? OMG scumslip!!" nonsense has pushed him over the edge, I think.

[iamausername]

You spent a ridiculous amount of time trying to get us onto your baseless case on Dalt, only to give it up at the drop of a hat?

I don't think you quite understand the meaning of the term "at the drop of a hat". It implies that havingfitz did so quickly and easily - pretty much the direct opposite of "a ridiculous amount of time trying".

I think havingfitz has clearly shown that he was committed to his case on dalt, and I don't think it's fair to accuse him of giving up on it too easily. Giving up on it because literally everybody is telling him it is a terrible case no matter how much he tries to insist otherwise is not scummy. It's OK to compromise sometimes.

Gut feelings should never be enough to actually make a judgment alone. If all you have for thinking a player is a specific alignment is "gut" then there's probably a reason you don't have anything more substantial. Gut feelings backed by logical deductions from events in threads are one thing, but if it's mostly gut then it's mostly irrational reasoning with no logical backing. You can be wrong, you know. Basing judgment on gut is an egotistical "I'm right because I know I'm right" standpoint that should be avoided. Also, I'm always weary of a player that acts on gut reactions that is a defense that cannot be disproved. When it comes down to it, you've had a "gut" feeling nearly the entire game? I find that extremely unlikely to actually be the case.

Fuck that noise. Gut feelings own.

The biggest point against HF is his stubbornness on getting off the dalt wagon, and being somewhat stubborn is not much of a tell for him.

Naw, that's not a problem, it's the fact that he is failing to comment on anything else while being stubborn about that. The fact that he stuck to his guns even with a bunch of people being against him is more of a towntell, if anything.

...I feel like I've made that point before. Oh right, because it is in direct contrast to what CA did when people disagreed with his wagon. Yeah, he's still a good lynch.

[iamausername]

Secondly, I know how some people found HF's opening quote to be a nulltell, and some people found it town-ish. I found it scummy. Here's the quote and my explaination:

VOTE: iamausername for rolefishing.

Seriously...did you expect any town PRs to reveal themselves? Though I do support scum claims. You first?

I don't know HF enough to metagame, but considering this to be a mountainous game (and it obviously is, checking out the title of the thread), his lack of knowledge of the game is inexcusable. To me, this felt so wrong, and it did at the time, which is why I kept on bringing it up.

That's only obvious if you know what "mountainous" means in a mafia context, though, which is hardly self-explanatory. So if you're suggesting that there is no way anyone could have missed the setup, and that havingfitz must therefore be lying, I'd have to disagree. If that's not what you're suggesting, then... I don't understand where the scumminess comes from. Being unobservant is no kind of scumtell I've ever heard of.

HF is looking scummier by the day...

Really? I've been finding the opposite.

If h.fitz as town thought that this was a normal closed game in little italy then as town shouldn't he have been curious about why iamausername thought this game was different? It seems to me that h.fitz was a scum typing out what he thought would look like a townie post without really thinking like a townie.

Yeah, that actually makes sense as a reason for finding fitz's first post scummy. I don't agree with it, but I can at least see where you're coming from.

calling scumteam of "Xite91 + havingfitz"

aaaaand you've lost me. It's really too early in the game to go calling scumteams IMO, even if you actually had a decent basis for it. And you don't.

To me you post replying to iamausername seems to be written with the voice of a scum player impersonating town, playing along by pretending to not know the setup but to still try to stop the gambit by accusing the gambit author of being a rolefisher.

OK, that's way more of a stretch than the first quote. So you think that fitz not only knew the setup, but also realised what I was trying to achieve with my gambit and deliberately acted ignorant to shut it down? No offense to him, but I just don't think there's any basis to believe that he's sharp enough for that.

Did you want an actual reason to find him scummy? Cuz I'll give you one, just not one based off of a null tell.

I know I'd like to hear it, at least. But I dunno if maybe you're pulling something sneaky again and there's a reason you're keeping it under wraps right now.

calling me a noob and ovnoob was insulting. now you are just trolling for information to discredit me, either language barrier or grammar or something. too transparent, sorry.

if it can't be a part of a case, than it is not game relevant, no?

It's totally game relevant. Knowing that a language barrier exists will totally affect how I read someone, as I'm pretty sure it should everyone. You're really being unnecessarily confrontational about this.

If someone brought it up at all, it would be far more likely to be in the context of "he's worded it badly because english isn't his first language, so it's not as scummy as it looks" or something like that, rather than "look at this loser who can't even speak english properly, we should totally ignore everything he says". So really, it's a huge advantage to claim ESL. :p

I also benefit from reading game knowing dalt's role PM. Hence my OMGUS vote on h.fitz.

Yeah, that's just bad. The contents of dalt's role PM shouldn't be used as a major factor in your evaluation of fitz's actions, because fitz doesn't necessarily know what the contents of dalt's role PM are.

---

Question for anyone who is not voting either Lateralus or ConfidAnon right now... why not?

[iamausername]

I'm really leaning towards Prana and CA looking scummy because they're overposters

Do you not see any significance in the fact that CA conspicuously stopped being an overposter as soon as he came under pressure?

Also quoting this unanswered question as reference material for LML in answering that last question.

[iamausername]

@IAU

Would you like to come back to the game? We'd like to have your opinion on what's going on.

Yeah, sorry. I'm working on a huge-ass game summary post, it'll be done some time today. But in brief, my opinion is that everybody is barking up the wrong tree and ignoring the scum who is holding up a big neon sign with an arrow pointing at himself saying "I AM SCUM".

VOTE: ConfidAnon

As far as the popular candidates go, I think I support a fitz lynch over Xite, and Xite over wendy, I'll tell you for sure later. But really I can't fathom any reason why we would want to lynch anyone besides ConfidAnon today.

[iamausername]

I don't normally do these until later in the game, but I think I'm feeling arrogant enough to believe I am a likely N1 kill here, so I'd better get all my awesome out before then.

commieB/Lateralus22

commie made two posts. The first one contains nothing of note, but the second one is quite interesting, in that it seems to me to display at least as much ignorance of the setup as one Mr. H. Fitz did in his first post, and yet it has gone relatively uncommented on. I don't think said ignorance is anything but a nulltell, but I'm interested to hear thoughts about this from those that disagree.

Onto the main event: Lateralus.

Post #119: Right in his very first post he is giving me bad vibes with this bit of double speak:

I don't like how Xite pointed this out as pointless, I believe I said this in our last game Xite "Any and every scummy behavior should be pointed out.". That being said reading his change in vote I don't find this as scummy if the reason he changed his vote is what I believe to be but I want him to explain in case it is not.

He berates Xite because "any and every scummy behavior should be pointed out", but then goes to agree with Xite that the behaviour in question was not scummy. So basically he's just throwing dirt at Xite for no actual reason.

Post #149: So begins his outrageously awful assault against Nexus. (Well, actually, it began a little earlier in Post #135, but I don't think there's anything particularly objectionable in that one). #149 though, urgh. Forgive me for my egocentricity, but I am forcefully reminded of my own play as scum in this game here, where I latched onto a bit of poor communication from a weaker player and relentlessly badgered them with inane questions that have no right answer.

Post #175: sweet burn, bro. that was sick.

Post #179: In all of the inane bullshit that Lat marks as proof of Nexus's scumminess, I think this is the worst. So, Xite made a list of 6 people he considered suspicious, and then later Nexus did the same, and 3 of the names on both lists were the same! NEXUS IS COPYING!!! It's just ridiculous, and I really find it difficult to believe that Lat actually thinks he is making some kind of worthwhile point with this.

Post #199: I enjoy the fact that Lat doesn't even deny that he is not actually trying to figure out Nexus's alignment.

Post #222: And here we start to move onto the next phase, where Lat starts to shift away from Nexus and onto Xite, because apparently town reads are scum slips now. But, strangely enough, his vote doesn't go anywhere. If he really thinks that Xite slipped up and accidentally admitted that he knew Nexus is town, you'd think he might want to stop voting for Nexus, no? Looks to me like he is waiting to see if an Xite wagon will take off before abandoning the healthy wagon he has already.

Post #311: Nearly 100 posts later, Lat finally switches his vote over to Xite. There's no big revelation in this post, he doesn't point out any new scummy behaviour from Xite (or new town behaviour from Nexus) that pushed him over the edge. In fact he doesn't even mention either Xite or Nexus in this post. So I am really wondering what the catalyst was for the vote change coming in this particular post.

Post #356: I actually really like this post. He's drawing attention to someone that really wasn't under any heavy suspicion elsewhere, and for a totally legit reason; posting only to respond to things that directly address you is a pretty great way to get by active lurking without people noticing, because it looks like contributing but it only furthers the goal of preventing yourself from being lynched, it does nothing for the goal of actually finding scum. Definite town points for this one.

Post #393: Also like that he is not joining the wendy wagon, because I really think scum would have trouble resisting after the self-vote. This does a lot to convince me that he might have actually believed in his stupid points against Nexus.

ConfidAnon

Post #47: We've been over the part where outright stating that you are wagoning for the sake of wagoning defeats any purpose that doing so might have, but I just want to point out that CA actually went one step further and stated that he actively disagreed with the case against the person he was wagoning here, which is even worse.

Post #81: Yeah, I'm still not going to let that "wrong wording" bit go. It's just straight up bullshit, I do not believe for a second that CA accidentally used the phrase "I am pushing for your lynch" when he did not mean it, and I don't know why most everyone else seems to be happy to let this slide.

Post #102: Total strawman of fitz's case against dalt. I struggle to see how anyone could interpret "HE IS A LYING LIAR WHO LIES" as attacking someone "for being new".

Posts #195 through #349: So yeah, remember when I said above that posting only to respond to things that directly address you is a fine way to actively lurk?

Yeah.

Really, is there anything in a single one of ConfidAnon's posts that suggest he has any interest at all in finding scum? Because if there is, I can't find it.

dalt54321/tomorrow wendy

dalt is useless, and I believe he'd have been equally useless as either alignment. Nothing to go on there.

tomorrow wendy is Adel. Since he is not massaging my ego in an attempt to influence my vote, I assume he is town, because he knows I'm easy. Done.

havingfitz

Post #22: One thing that I don't think has been addressed in the arguments about fitz's lack of setup knowledge is the fact that, as scum, he'd know that the scumteam was made up of just two goons. Which is awfully weak for a regular M. Normal game, and I think the kind of person who is sensible enough to read through mod posts for whatever information they can find as a townie would also be sensible enough to realise that that scumteam makeup indicated that this was not a regular M. Normal.

Post #230: "Llamafluff if a good player who can probably sweet talk out of korashk's bad play…but in terms of D1 suspicions I think that player slot would be a good lynch." This sentence bothers me quite a bit. One, the fearmongering suggestion that Llama is so good that we'd better lynch him quick before he uses his wizardry to convince us all that he is town. And two, the phrasing it as being "in terms of D1 suspicions", which is basically trying to diminish the worth of all D1 suspicions, which will in turn diminish the worth of D1, which will in turn diminish the worth of all days. It doesn't matter what day it is, a good case is a good case.

Post #262: "I know if Llama was lynched and flipped town, you would shoot to the top of my suspicions." This phrase would set alarm bells ringing in any post, but they ring extra loudly when it happens to appear in a post together with a vote on Llama.

Korashk/LlamaFluff

What comes through loud and clear from Korashk's posts is that he is used to playing on a site where things are done very differently to the way we do them here. Any alignment tells that might be around in those posts kind of get lost in translation.

Post #255: Llama's catch up post (well, the meat of it, at any rate). Lotsa lotsa good points in here, and his read on Xite in particular makes me think Llama is town. Referencing another previous game of mine:

Little tip: town tend to think I'm ambiguous leaning town. Scum tend to think I'm incredibly scummy and an easy mislynch. It's not 100% but the pattern is there.

The impression I get is that Xite is a similar player. (See also: tomorrow wendy. Adel does that deliberately).

Post #237: This post is good because it contains a vote for scum. And further points about why CA is scum, if my ones above aren't enough for you.

Also I guess Llama did bring up the thing about the makeup of the scumteam on fitz's ignorance already.

In summary, Llama makes a lot of good points and a lot of sense.

Leech

Post #155: I like the way he calls me out for not following up on my starting gambit. Obviously, he is wrong, for reasons that have been established, but it still shows that he is thinking critically about other people's motivations.

Post #272: This I like less. He's really putting fitz into a "when did you stop beating your wife?" kind of thing, where he is scummy for continuing to push his crappy dalt case in the face of massive resistance from everybody else, but then he's

also

scummy for dropping his crappy dalt case in the face of massive resistance from everybody else.

He's also horribly wrong in all his stuff about Xite and gut feelings, but I think he actually believes what he's saying there, so that's not scummy. Yeah, that's pretty much Leech in general, actually. He is wrong wrong wrong about pretty much everything and reading his iso made me want to beat my head against a wall (or his, actually), but I think he's earnest in his wrongness. The catch-22 bit with fitz is the only thing that actually strikes me as scummy.

LoudmouthLee

I have some trouble reading LML for much the same reasons as I had trouble reading Korashk; he's used to playing on a site where things are done differently to the way we do them too. It just happens that that site is this site, in the past. It's obviously not as far removed as wherever Korashk came from, but it still interferes with things. Moreso towards the start of the game, mind; he's definitely adjusting to changes in the meta, or we're adjusting to him.

Post #164: LML confuses me and CA somehow. I can't see him doing this if CA was his scum partner.

I'm not seeing any other overt tells either way in his posts, but if CA flips scum as I expect him too, LML is town fo sho.

Nexus

He's been away for pretty much the entire time that's passed since I made this post, nothing's changed in my read on him since then.

PranaDevil

Post #8: I think I mentioned earlier that some responses to my opening gambit gave me a town read; this is what I was talking about. Not sure why it does, but my gut says that this is very much a town reaction.

Post #143: Despite several others voting for Nexus, Prana is the first one to point out the actual legit point against him with the "I forgot and I did it to see how you reacted". And yet, Prana never even joins the Nexus wagon. I really find Prana's behaviour around the Nexus wagon to be super town; the apologetic tone here in "Much as I think you seem to be a stand up bloke" and the reluctance to vote Nexus that goes with it, I like that a lot. Obviously, Nexus being a stand up bloke has nothing to do with his alignment, but it is human nature to be more inclined to want to lynch someone you dislike, and Prana struggling to separate that from his growing concern that Nexus may be scum strikes me as extremely genuine here.
[hr][/hr]

And I have to leave for work now, I'll finish looking at Prana and get onto Saga/Nightwolf + Xite when I get back. I hope to see some more votes on ConfidAnon by that time.

[iamausername]

I hope to see some more votes on ConfidAnon by that time.

I'm very disappointed in you all.

[iamausername]

Continuing on PranaDevil...

Post #423: "Today we are lynching, that's the general consensus, and thus I think the discussion has run it's course." = :goodposting:.

The suggestion of a No Lynch is obviously not scummy - it is mathematical fact that doing so at some point in the game will improve our chances - but wasting a whole lot of time arguing about when to do it has the potential to distract the town from useful pursuits like LYNCHING CONFIDANON.

I guess that's all I have to say about Prana's posts. But I think he may well be my strongest town read at this point.

Saga/Nightwolf

Saga didn't say much of interest, but spent longer in doing so than Korashk or dalt, so Nightwolf is a fairly late entry into the game. Much harder to get a read on someone when they're commenting more as an outsider than someone in the thick of the action. Unless of course they've been in the game the whole time but are still commenting as an outsider because they don't

want

to be in the thick of the action, because that would draw attention to them. Like ConfidAnon. LYNCH CONFIDANON.

Post #396: Oh again, with the Leech business. Let me see if I can explain this coherently.

A whole lot of people on this site have been conditioned into a homogenous indistinguishable mass, where they have a totally inflexible belief in what Town Behaviour is, and instead of doing complicated stuff like considering what motivation someone has for doing things, they just lynch anyone who deviates from this norm. This is A Bad Thing.

So, when Xite explains how he attacked Nexus with the aim of getting Nexus to make himself look scummy, this certainly deviates from the norm. It even sounds a whole lot like scum motivation, as Nightwolf points out here, until you remember that

Xite is explaining all this in the thread

. That's where considering the motivation comes in; if Xite is scum, why would he do this? Scum players, by and large, are not Bond villains. They don't twirl their moustaches and explain their evil plans, or at least not until the game is over and their evil plans have already come to fruition. Explaining how you deliberately attacked someone to get them to make themself look scummy seems to me like a pretty good way to stop people from wanting to lynch that person, don't you think?

p.s. lynch confidanon

Xite

Actually, maybe the above sums up my feelings on Xite pretty well. Unconventional =/= scummy. On the other hand...

Post #23: Xite tips havingfitz off to the setup. I didn't have a problem with this at the time...

Post #41: ...even when Xite showed some understanding of what I was doing. Because really, the worth of my gambit wasn't in catching out scum claiming power roles. There was like no chance that that would actually happen. So I don't think Xite actually ruined any opportunity to catch scum.

Post #113: But apparently Xite

does

think the gambit could have caught scum. So he alerted fitz to the setup because...?

I can't figure out a town motivation, and Xite's explanation that too many people had hinted at the setup already clearly holds no water, since these hints obviously weren't enough to tip fitz off.

But aside from that, I don't see a worthwhile case on Xite. He's done several deliberately provocative things, like the false case on Nexus, or the "I'll hammer anyone at L-1" bit, and he has clearly done these with the full knowledge that this will draw negative attention on himself, and

that is not scummy

.

Blah blah, if you deliberately make yourself look scummy as town you are increasing the chance that the one person you know is town gets lynched so that is anti-town. That doesn't explain why you would want to do it as scum. If you're going to look at it in such basic terms, there's no reason why

anyone

would want to do it.

Oh yeah, and LYNCH CONFIDANON.

[iamausername]

So yeah, fitz > Xite > wendy. I guess fitz isn't so much a popular choice any more though, looking at that vote count.

Now:

Xite, why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?
fitz, why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?
wendy, why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?
Nexus, why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?
Prana, why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?
LML, why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?
Leech, why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?
Nightwolf, why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?

...I'm forgetting someone. Oh right, Lat. Why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?

[iamausername]

Rather than hopping from the smallest wagon (1) to the other smallest wagon (1) going and urging us so much to come over to CA...why don't you pick one of the popular suspects that might actually have a chance at getting lynched today?

Because I would prefer to lynch scum. I still believe there is a chance of redirecting this lynch to ConfidAnon, and I am going to do everything I can to make that happen, because I don't think either Xite or wendy are particularly likely to be scum.

If I do have to make a choice between Xite and wendy, I'll vote for Xite, as I've said a couple of times. But we're not so close to deadline that I need to make that vote just yet.

And perhaps answering my questions to you?

I'm not seeing any questions that you shouldn't be able to infer the answer to by reading my big post(s) on everyone.

And since I answered your CA question, why don't you tell us why you don't want to vote tw while you are at it.

I don't think wendy is scum.

Anyways my reason is that I'm in more than one game with him and it seems to be his meta. Why don't you read up on him?

...huh. I've been in a game with him before (he replaced out before I replaced in). I thought I remembered his play being different in that game, but it turns out I was confusing him with a different player in the same game (BloodCovenent in British Comedy, for reference). CA did a dalt and only made two posts before he dropped out, so that's pretty useless. Also he was scum, so it doesn't tell me anything about his town meta.

OK, I totally need to check some more of his games.

TRIP REPORT: Looked at his iso in this game, since it was the one complete game listed on his wiki. I'm seeing plenty of actively engaging other players with questions and votes, which look like original thoughts, though I didn't read anyone else's posts in the game. Anyway, my conviction remains. It does not appear to be CA's town meta to coast through the game making no effort whatsoever to find scum. He didn't post a lot in that game, but when he did post, he usually had something worthwhile to say. That's not been the case here.

Hopefully, after I flip y'all will reconsider it for Day 2. In this game, if you chart player proficiency against opinion of no-lynch in this specific setup, you'll see that those with titles and lots of game experience (with the possible exception of LML) agree with me that No Lynch

before mylo

is a key consideration.

Well, I don't have a title, but...

I don't see how it's so vital that it happens before mylo, although I'm coming around to Nightwolf's suggestion that a day earlier would be better. Certainly not worse enough that I'd bother to argue against it.

Unfortunatly I don't have a very good reason, I will however give you the true reason. I was lazy. There was no rush at all, from my point of view it was like I figured out a big piece of the puzzle noticing a scum slip that I figured leads Xite to being scum for sure. In the Nexus situation I was trying to get information, thus putting a vote on for more pressure. With Xite the pressure wasn't needed, I just decided to finish the conversation.

You're wrong, that's the best reason of all.

~the truth will set you free~

I don't feel a CA lynch would give us any information about other's alignment right now

But but but

The reason you feel this is that every fucker is ignoring CA, so it's hard to tell which of them is doing so because he's their scumbuddy. But lynching him would obviously require people to stop ignoring him, so the act of getting him to a lynch would destroy this premise, making it totally invalid as a reason not to lynch him.

it just occurred to me that an excellent argument for lynching xite is that it would shut him up, and make the game more readable for future replacements and those who reread the game. A more informed town is more likely to succeed, and a more readable game thread yields a more reading of the game yields a more informed town.

Interestingly this same argument would work for you was well, wendy.

not really. my signal:noise ratio is rather better than your's

Hmm. I feel like the signal:noise ratio dropped like a stone around about the time wendy entered the game, but I don't think he's directly responsible. His posts seem to have inadvertantly caused others to pile on the irrelevant bullshit.

If I did think wendy was doing it deliberately, I'd on that lynch so fast, because obfuscating the town with irrelevant bullshit is Adel's bread and butter when he's scum.

Again, it wasn't the fact that he dropped the case that bothered me. It was the fact that he dropped a case that he clearly believed in, for something he didn't appear to believing in nearly as much. Recent events and how he's going back with a "told ya so!" attitude does nothing but back my suspicions on his dropping the case to begin with. Considering he's trying to make Wendy's scumminess fit the mold of his previous case on Dalt, really makes me question his hop off of his case to begin with.

My problem is that you were

also

giving him shit before he dropped the case, and saying he was suspicious for finding his case on dalt better than his case on Korashk. So basically, whatever he did in that situation, you were going to continue hounding him.

And his coming back with a "told ya so!" attitude is exactly what I'd expect him to do. Like, if I end up having to vote Xite here, and then come tomorrow everyone suddenly realises that oh yeah, CA is obvscum, you can bet your behind I'm going to have a "told ya so!" attitude. I don't understand at all how you can say this is scummy.

Why are you so insistent on ignoring the fact that I've stated multiple times that there is nothing wrong with gut feelings? I said I don't consider a gut feeling to be the sole reason to vote. That was the extent of it. I've seen scum use gut as a reason far too often to accept that as a viable reason. It's indisputable and I don't think that should ever be the determining factor for that very reason.

orite

I'm not ignoring that. What you are wrong about is the idea that using gut and solely gut is unacceptable. That's wrong. It's totally fine. Sorry I haven't made that clear before.

Mind pointing out a few of the things I'm wrong about when it relates to Xite? You said "all his stuff" so you should have plenty you can show me. Just saying a person is wrong is no where near as effective as showing instances where I am wrong.

All his stuff. Literally everything you have ever posted about Xite is wrong. That's what I said.

I never said I was opposed to a CA lynch.

Are you opposed to a CA lynch?

Yeah, only problem is, seeing the way people flip greatly increases the chances of catching scum, regardless of your statistics.

No, no it doesn't.

There's a few suspect things about the way that TW posted that information. First, he didn't explain it, at all. What good is a bunch of numbers and colors when you don't get any sort of key to see what it means. He was quick to explain it once asked, but why didn't he just say it right away? Think for a minute about this. He was looking like he was going to be the lynch of the day, can you seriously not see a scum reason to post that?

I didn't have any trouble understanding it. It was pretty straightforward. I can see wendy assuming that no one would need a key.

Also, I really have no idea what you're talking about with the scum reason to post it. Please enlighten us.

One of the reasons why I'm leaning towards voting TW over anyone else is that I see her as the most anti-town and distracting. Xite's not much better, but I believe that tw is more damaging for the town. It's frustrating me, but she keeps digging herself deeper.

Giving into this lets the terrorists win, Nexus. It's frustrating, because deep down you think wendy is town. And if you think wendy is town, you shouldn't want to lynch him. Search your feelings, you know it to be true.

honest injun, I'm town. please lynch h.fitz and xite.

If we lynch xite and he flips town, will you help me lynch CA tomorrow?

[iamausername]

I think the meta needs to be changed. I have a major problem with it. Town needs to stop acting scummy and say they're running gambits. It's making it much harder for the real townies to find the logic. Not everyone needs to be professor freaking mafia. When the rest of the town doesn't know you're gambiting (as they shouldn't), it can look scummy.

What's EVEN WORSE is that the remainder of the town has been "brilliant gambit, Adel" when... ugh.

I'm truly grossed out by the current meta. Shit's flying now that wouldn't have even been discussed in the past.

See what I find makes it harder for town is when they feel like they have to stifle their natural impulses in order to fit into to the accepted model of What Townies Do. It's so much easier to read people if everyone lets their thoughts flow freely.

The thing is that nobody is deliberately acting

scummy

. They're acting unconventionally, which some people think is the same thing, and scum love those people because it means they can pretend to be one of them and join in the witch hunt. Which is how these gambits work in the first place.

I see your side of the argument; it's a slippery slope to allowing scum to get away with whatever they like and just saying "it was a gambit" afterwards, but... that's where the whole 'reading people' thing that forms the entire basis of the game comes in; they explain what they were trying to achieve with their gambit, you figure out if their explanation is sincere. If scum have done something scummy unintentionally, then their explanation when they try to write it off as a gambit is not going to be very convincing.

Predictability is the enemy. The more predictable town play is, the easier it is for scum to emulate.

Speaking less generally, I think the important thing to look at with wendy is the alt slip. If you believe that was accidental (and I am giving the benefit of the doubt on that one, because I've been there), he is obviously town. If not, then there is a pretty good chance he is scum.

On that note, wendel, could you explain in as much detail as you can recall the circumstances surrounding your alt slip? Why were you logged in as Adel, and why did you think you were logged in as tomorrow wendy? Thanks.

sure, I'll be happy to trade a Xite lynch for a CA lynch.

bitchin

That's not the same thing. If CA gets replaced tomorrow and you try and make the replacement fit the mold of the previous player in that slot, for a completely null situation then you shouldn't have that attitude.

Shouldn't =/= won't. It doesn't matter if you think he was justified in his suspicion, fitz obviously thinks he was justified, so it is completely natural for him to feel vindicated when he thinks his suspicion has been confirmed.

I'm not ignoring that. What you are wrong about is the idea that using gut and solely gut is unacceptable. That's wrong. It's totally fine. Sorry I haven't made that clear before.

It would be perfectly fine if it didn't get in the way of actual scumhunting, which it does.

I don't even know what language you're speaking sometimes. How in the hell does me stating, for example, that my gut says Prana is town with no further explanation

get in the way

of "actual scumhunting". I can understand why you might think it isn't "actual scumhunting", though that is still wrong, but saying it "gets in the way" is just wtf.

This seemed to be one of your most important points when you wrote that post, and I do not agree with it (at least not to a strong degree). I view it somewhere between null and mildly scummy. Since CA has already responded when initially questioned on it and doesn't look like he has more to say about it, I'll also say why. Look at the quote in this post. It could have easily just been mirroring the language used at the time by Prana as his focus was to correct the reason Prana listed after those words rather than the words themselves.

Good call.

You asked this question to wendy, I would like you to answer the opposite of it yourself. If CA is lynched and flips town, would you support a Xite lynch tomorrow? If not, who?

Well, when I asked my question, I'd have been more likely to go for fitz than Xite, which is still a trade wendy wanted.

But Xite called me scum, so I am totally gunning for him now. OMGIS. (In seriousness, his support for the wendy lynch feels considerably less sincere than anyone else to me. Given this and the above, I am a lot happier with having to switch to him than I expected.)

Or is it that whole posting a bunch of irrelevant stuff as scum thing again.
Since you seem to place so much belief in metas, why don't we talk about that one for a while?

Prime example of non-sincere Xite attacks. I'm so glad I brought up Adel's scum meta earlier.

the only way I would move to Xite would be to avoid a no-lynch

fitz, you should really read mod posts in all your games, they contain a lot of useful information. Frexample:

16) At deadline, the player with the most votes is lynched. If there is a tie, the player who had the most votes first will be lynched.

There is no chance of a no lynch.

You've watched too many movies. Scum don't actually explain their clever plan to the hero before they carry it out.

Scum players, by and large, are not Bond villains. They don't twirl their moustaches and explain their evil plans, or at least not until the game is over and their evil plans have already come to fruition.

tomorrow wendy is Adel. Since he is not massaging my ego in an attempt to influence my vote, I assume he is town, because he knows I'm easy.

I'm mildly concerned.

darn, I was hoping for Nexus to vote for xite. That puts me at 5, and xite is still only at 4. I expect that CA will also vote for me, so IAU and llamafluff you guys have to vote for xite before CA has a chance to vote for me, or else I will be the deadline lynch.

On it.

mod: request replacement

-- mafia isn't a good idea for me anymore.
sorry folks, enjoy the rest of your game. I replaced in with the best on intentions, but I still care too much.

I understand. I'm disappointed, and I hope you'll reconsider, but I understand.

You've basically ruined the first day, wendy.

Signal:noise ratio increased, but signal in general also increased imo.

VOTE: Xite

[iamausername]

Leech, why don't you want to lynch ConfidAnon?

I never said I was opposed to a CA lynch.

I also want to draw attention to this, because it really bothers me but I'm not sure why.

[iamausername]

I think that since wendy replaced into the game, the signal to noise ratio has increased. I also think that since wendy replaced into the game, the signal has increased.

wendy's play has made day one more worthwhile, but has also made it harder to find the worthwhile stuff.

I don't envy the replacements.

[iamausername]

I cba to look up the exact order the votes appeared, but it's something like:

wendy (5) - lml, fitz, prana, xite, nexus
xite (5) - nightwolf, lat, leech, iam, wendy
ca (1) - llama
llama (1) - ca

with Llama having stated a preference for xite over wendy, and CA's vote sitting in limbo unless we get a super swift replacement.

INFORMATION INSTEAD OF ANALYSIS

[iamausername]

see the "scumhunting" thread at http://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewto ... =5&t=12572

This thread is a good read, btw. I reccomend all townies take a look at it overnight.

[iamausername]

inHimshallibe -vanilla townie- has been killed N1

I've had too much drunk to process this tonight. Doesn't make any sense.

[iamausername]

I don't even know why...I guess we should try and wade through tw's posts and see who he was most suspicious of.

*will do that today*

Doesn't make sense for the mafia to kill him because of his suspicions, because there's no reason they should expect that inHim would have the same suspicions that wendy did.

My first thought is that people on the Xite wagon would be more likely to kill wendy here, because they'd be taking suspicion after he flipped town, but with wendy flipping town too, the suspicion gets spread around to everyone. But that's still pretty dumb, because clearly the person on the Xite wagon who'd take the most suspicion would be wendy, so they could achieve the same thing by getting him lynched today instead, which would free up their night kill for someone harder to lynch.

My next thought is that it has something to do with his replacement; either someone who is familiar with inHim and thinks he's a particularly great town player, or just someone who likes the way the flow of suspicion has been headed and doesn't want to introduce an unknown element that might disrupt it. So that would suggest someone who's been getting off easy so far.

Anyway, we now know that both major wagons yesterday were on town, so it wouldn't matter for scum which one was lynched. So I'm going to reread and look out for anyone who wasn't overly committed to one wagon or the other.

[iamausername]

Doing a reread, but I have the oddest gut feeling... So, for now,

Vote: Iamausername

, because it never sits well with me when people say that they're likely nightkills. I couldn't get this out of my head the last few days. It doesn't sit right.

Why didn't you mention this at the time I said it?

@ iau

: Are you still interested in a CA lynch now that he has requested replacement?

Answer unclear, ask again later.

The fact that he's requested replacement makes his active lurking less suspicious, although when it was that prolonged, I don't want to write it off entirely. That plus the reasonable explanation you offered for his 'wrong wording' bit makes me less vociferous about pursuing his lynch right now.

I am very interested to see what his replacement has to say.

@ Everyone: Recent developments have made me a bit more in favor of using our No Lynch today than I expected I would be. Here is a quick survey on the topic to see where everyone stands: (you can state reasons with your answers if you wish but I request that people do not debate this topic with each other (or myself) until most/all remaining players have responded)
1) What day would you favor using our no lynch on?

Scum lynch today -> Day Four
Town lynch today -> Day Three

So the day before Mylo, in other words.

2) At what point in that day do you believe the no lynch should occur? (Examples of what I mean here: Quick-hammering no lynch, Waiting until the town gets close to deciding who would have bene that day's lynch, Somewhere inbetween, Etc.)

I think No Lynch should be taken out swiftly and without mercy.

[iamausername]

words

So, essentially, you're saying that Adel was so goddamn scummy that there is no possible way that any real townie would read him as town, and in fact so goddamn scummy that scum would

actively campaign against his lynch

. And then kill him anyway at night. That makes sense.

Because if they were both on the Xite wagon, it's not just a case of "they preferred to keep Adel alive" (and again, they killed him, so they obviously didn't want to keep him alive that badly) - when Adel was pulling his self-voting shenanigans, there pretty much was no Xite wagon. It took some serious effort on the part of several players to prevent that wagon from reaching a lynch. Even given your ridiculously wrong opinion about Adel's ability as a player, I struggle to see how you can honestly think that nobody on his wagon was scum.

X = Scum on Xite wagon
T = Scum on tomorrow wendy wagon
C = Scum on neither wagon, is ConfidAnon.

I think probably XT > TC > TT >>> XC > XX.

Still need to finish rereading, but I think I ought to put a vote out somewhere, so

VOTE: Leech

[iamausername]

Let's fill this game with 100 pages of two people arguing in circles, that'll help us find scum.

[iamausername]

I could have unvoted to force a no-lynch due to the fact that when I voted, it was not a hammer, just a failsafe to prevent a TW lynch.

This part isn't true. Read the deadline rules.

[iamausername]

I'm gonna bold this for effect.

My scumsenses tell me that both mafia members were on the Xite wagon.

Looking at this game, I think that the TW kill was to throw the scent off of the Xite wagon, since "both wagons were equally wrong."

I am pretty sure that Wolf, Lat and now fitz are town. IAU still probably but gut is making me wonder there, as I think the TW kill is either a move from a highly experienced or newbie scum team. I can see a few reasons that TW would be the correct kill for scum.

This type of NK speculation is always very detrimental to town. You're pigeonholing the scum team in one way or the other, and that type of thinking leads townies to their demise. With that,

Vote: Llamafluff

. This would put LF at L-2.

Literally the scummiest thing I have ever seen.

Vote: LoudmouthLee

[iamausername]

I have.

That is an explanation for why your NK speculation is OK, while Llama's is not. Now, what makes Llama's NK speculation worse than when I did it, or when Nexus did it, or when Leech did it?

Can you cite any examples of previous games were you have seen people say they are likely night kills? Can you demonstrate that you have seen this come proportionally more from scum than town?

Why is scumLlama more likely to push for No Lynch in this situation than townLlama?

[iamausername]

No, you haven't.

Oh, my mistake. I'm sure you know better than me what I've read.

My "NK spec" was myself explaining my reaction to the Xite lynch and the way it went down.

I am aware that that is how you are attempting to rationalise your hypocrisy. I just don't buy it. I don't think you really believe that Llama's speculation is scummy while yours is A-OK. I think that was just a poor excuse to hop onto the burgeoning Llama wagon.

And the hypocrisy is not the only problem I had with that post; even if you're going to go into denial about the fact that you were actually engaging in NK speculation, other people, including me, the person you were previously voting, have also engaged in the same sort of speculation. So why is it scummier coming from Llama than it was coming from me?

As for the citation of previous games, it's absolutely preposterous to think that anyone has the time to sort through the amount of information. I've unvoted you, sir. You're awfully defensive. Seriously.

There's that word again.

I'm not being defensive. I'm trying to see if you are able to demonstrate that the things you say have any actual basis. I have no concerns for myself, I'm just presenting you with an opportunity to justify your stances.

I really think you haven't been reading, Iam. Check out Llama's reaction to NL compared to his reaction to NL today.

Yesterday Llama was the first person to bring up the subject of a No Lynch. The general consensus among those who didn't give a kneejerk "NO LYNCH IS BAD" was that it should happen later on, Llama didn't press the issue any further. Then Adel came in and gave a pretty reasonable case for why it should actually happen earlier, which appears to have struck a chord with Llama, and he is now arguing that position too.

I have no idea what is supposed to be scummy about any of this.

Plus, he's singing the praises of Adel in such a way... befriending the dead pro-town is a way to look town when you're scummy.

I don't see it as this so much as it is getting frustrated with people continuing to insist that Adel was scummy scum scum scum even after he has died and been revealed as town, which is a feeling I can certainly sympathise with.

I think that trying to discredit the opinions of dead townies by insisting that it is their own fault that they received votes is also a scum tactic.

What is your view on Llama?

I'm pretty sure he's town, because I can't see why scumLlama would push the no lynch today when there is no discernable benefit to scum to do so, and anyone could see that it would attract a bunch of negative attention from the "NO LYNCH IS BAD" kneejerks.

[iamausername]

D1 10:2 - Even number
D2 8:2 - Even Number (No Lynch)
D3 7:2 - Odd Number (We lynch scum)
D4 6:1 - Even Number
D5 4:1 - Even Number

Look at that! By No-Lynching now, if we lynch scum later it actually means we'd have to no-lynch a second time just to get our odds back. It's amazing how the ratio changes when you actually consider lynching scum a possibility in this game, isn't it? No lynching today, if we plan on winning, would require no-lynching later in order to get the odd number advantage. On D5 we'd have to no-lynch a second time to get it to 3:1 for the LyLo. I think this proves that if we No Lynch it should be later in the game, and the best course of action is to try and lynch scum, so we don't have to no-lynch at all. Unless you want to give the scum 2 chances to kill the "most town player" as you've stated was a concern of yours.

...

5 and 7 are not even numbers. Try again.

[iamausername]

@IAM...why are you not voting (CA)Sotty after pushing so hard for CA's lynch yesterday? Do you not think that player slot is still scum?

@ iau: Are you still interested in a CA lynch now that he has requested replacement?

Answer unclear, ask again later.

The fact that he's requested replacement makes his active lurking less suspicious, although when it was that prolonged, I don't want to write it off entirely. That plus the reasonable explanation you offered for his 'wrong wording' bit makes me less vociferous about pursuing his lynch right now.

I am very interested to see what his replacement has to say.

Also my pushing so hard for a CA lynch yesterday was partly for show anyway, because I wanted to get people to at least say

something

about CA. I mean, not that I didn't think hr was the most likely scum at the time, but I wasn't as out and out certain about it as I was probably making out.

What about Laterus?

See this post for when my opinion about Lat started to change.

Why are you voing Leech?

Although I never gave a good explanation for my vote on Leech, this question is still evidence that you are not paying attention, because:

I'm gonna bold this for effect.

My scumsenses tell me that both mafia members were on the Xite wagon.

Looking at this game, I think that the TW kill was to throw the scent off of the Xite wagon, since "both wagons were equally wrong."

I am pretty sure that Wolf, Lat and now fitz are town. IAU still probably but gut is making me wonder there, as I think the TW kill is either a move from a highly experienced or newbie scum team. I can see a few reasons that TW would be the correct kill for scum.

This type of NK speculation is always very detrimental to town. You're pigeonholing the scum team in one way or the other, and that type of thinking leads townies to their demise. With that,

Vote: Llamafluff

. This would put LF at L-2.

Literally the scummiest thing I have ever seen.

Vote: LoudmouthLee

I'm not voting Leech.

But anyway, I voted Leech because voting someone is (nearly) always better than voting no one, so I wanted to put a vote out there while I was rereading D1 and getting my bearings, and I don't have a town read on him.

Usually if my D1 vote is still alive D2, I'd probably go with that as my placeholder vote, but since CA was being replaced, that vote would have been about as worthless as no vote.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p2461398 <--self confessed IIoA on IAM

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p2469005 <--gut on IAM

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p2476199 <--IIoA and gut (for vote) on IAM

Do you know what IIoA stands for? Information INSTEAD OF Analysis. If someone is consistently posting no analysis throughout the whole game and just posting information about the game state, that is a valid thing to call them out on. If someone makes a single post that contains information, THAT IS NOT INFORMATION INSTEAD OF ANALYSIS. THAT IS JUST INFORMATION.

Also, wtf is IIoA about the last post you linked anyway? There's analysis everywhere in that bitch.

[iamausername]

[iamausername]

Could you elaborate on why his comment you quoted with your vote on him is the scummiest thing you've ever seen?

Could you READ THE GODDAMN THREAD?

My "NK spec" was myself explaining my reaction to the Xite lynch and the way it went down.

I am aware that that is how you are attempting to rationalise your hypocrisy. I just don't buy it. I don't think you really believe that Llama's speculation is scummy while yours is A-OK. I think that was just a poor excuse to hop onto the burgeoning Llama wagon.

And the hypocrisy is not the only problem I had with that post; even if you're going to go into denial about the fact that you were actually engaging in NK speculation, other people, including me, the person you were previously voting, have also engaged in the same sort of speculation. So why is it scummier coming from Llama than it was coming from me?

Here are the facts:

- Several people, including iamausername and LoudmouthLee engage in speculation about the night kill.
- LoudmouthLee votes iamausername for some stupid reason.
- Three people vote LlamaFluff for incredibly stupid reasons.
- LlamaFluff engages in speculation about the night kill.
- LoudmouthLee votes LlamaFluff, putting him at L-2, for speculating about the night kill, something that he also did himself, and something that the person he had previously been voting also did.
- That is the very definition of an opportunistic vote.
- LoudmouthLee is scum.

[iamausername]

Deadline is September 6th

Goddamn, I knew it was soon, but I didn't realise quite that soon.

Mod: Any chance we could get an extension, considering how long it took to find a replacement for CA?

[iamausername]

Something else I just spotted that further demonstrates that LML's jump onto the Llama wagon is blatant opportunistic scumbaggery. LML's opinion on No Lynch yesterday:

I don't think your advocacy of a NL is a scumtell

, I think your votehopping is a scumtell. I don't think a NL is even on my radar right now, although it will be later on to increase mathematical odds.

I feel the no-lynch play doesn't matter as much as long as it's played, mathematically. The odds do not change, and I, personally, would like to see a flip before a no-lynch is played.

That seems to contrast pretty drastically with his opinion when Llama brings it up today:

Well, I still say that we should no lynch. TW proved how it is the correct move to make in this setup, logic and math back it up. People are just conditioned to be way against no lynching at all costs, even when an exception to the rule occurs like this game. I would be very happy with a no lynch today. The conditions are still ok for one, although theoretically it should have occured seven posts into the game.

That's absolutely ridiculous. The math that you're speaking of talks about random lynches without any sort of knowledge. I don't even think you know the math that you're speaking about. It makes me wonder what you're trying to get out of this.

....


You've misrepresented you reason for "hammering".

You jumped to a NL today, To me, your last few posts have screamed scum.

Can we lynch this scumbag already?

p.s. my top two lynch choices are LOUDMOUTHLEE and HAVINGFITZ. If you fuckers force me to choose between two probable townies for the second day running, I will curse you all and choose PRANADEVIL. But really, don't make me do that.

[iamausername]

I'd be right there with you all, but I'm concerned about the possibility that we no lynch and then a townie flakes on us and we lose because he gets modkilled.

[iamausername]

Well, if I'm going to worry about it at all, now is the time. Worrying about it after a no lynch would be too late.

I want to make sure everyone's still around today before a hammer, at the very least.

[iamausername]

New Rule added![/color]

I don't see it.

Gonna take a wild stab in the dark and guess it has something to do with putting a stop to endless cycles of no lynch/no kill though.

[iamausername]

Yeah, this is the right choice.

VOTE: No Lynch

[iamausername]

Need to devote some serious time to rereading, I really don't have a clue right now. But for today I decided to procrastinate by updating Adel's vote table.



I hope someone gets some use out of it!

[iamausername]

Oh hey, has it been 48 hours already? Sorry guys, real post to follow soon.

[iamausername]

Oh hey, has it been 48 hours already? Sorry guys, real post to follow soon.

It's taking me longer than I thought to put it all together, and I don't want to post this one unfinished.

Gonna do this for now though:

VOTE: PranaDevil

[iamausername]

Right, before I get started on this, I'm going to explain, since this may not be immediately clear: In this analysis, I will primarily be looking at each post and asking the question "if I assume this player is scum, does this post say anything about who their partner is?". So if you accuse me of tunnel vision or whatever because I am talking like I am assuming you are scum, I will refer you back to this paragraph and call you a donkey. Clear?

Post #30: This Leech vote from CA really sticks out. It's just weird, there's no reason for it, and as I explained at the time, it runs completely counter to his stated goal of starting a bandwagon, any bandwagon. I could definitely see it as a clumsy distancing attempt.

Sotty/Leech +

Post #47: Even more ridiculously, he outright states that he disagrees with the reasons that Prana is being voted, but still joins the wagon for the sake of wagoning. Which is dumb as hell, but probably not something you'd do to your scum partner.

Sotty/Prana -

Post #59: Prana makes a concerted effort to ensure that CA is the first serious wagon of the game.

Sotty/Prana -

Post #62: At some point between #47 and this post, CA generates a scum read on Prana. So the "I don't think he's scummy, but I'll join the wagon anyway" wasn't just so he'd have an excuse to get off the wagon later.

Sotty/Prana -

Post #64: Leech totally ignores the spat that's going on between Prana and CA. I don't think this is revelatory about possible scum partners for him, I can see a scum player doing this whether or not his partner was involved in the spat. But in general, it's a little scummy.

Post #75: Leech does comment on it in passing now, and seems to be taking CA's side, though with a word of warning that he might be pushing it. Possible coaching here.

Leech/Sotty +, Leech/Prana -

Post #102: CA totally misrepresents fitz's case on dalt as "attacking someone for being new".

Sotty/fitz -

Post #108: Prana doesn't like the fact that Xite is encouraging Nexus to look for suspects outside the names that are already under suspicion. If Prana is scum, this seems like a strong indication that his partner falls outside that group.

Prana/Sotty --, Prana/Llama -, Prana/fitz -, Prana/Leech ++, Prana/Nightwolf ++

Post #155: Leech pointing out the fact that I didn't pursue fitz when he demonstrated a lack of setup knowledge, as well as being a general town tell for reasons I pointed out earlier, is specifically evidence against a partnership between him and fitz.

Leech/fitz -

Post #181: CA blasts Korashk quite a lot here, does not seem likely to be distancing to me.

Sotty/Llama -

Post #182: And fitz backs him up. The fact that he's not actually voting Korashk means I'm not counting this as a negative for Llama/fitz, but it's definitely a

Sotty/fitz +

Post #190: Prana spreading the suspicion around liberally here. The stuff about fitz could be distancing, since I don't think he ever follows up on it. Korashk getting the vote, on the other hand, makes this a

Prana/Llama -

Post #205: Leech takes up the case against fitz's case against dalt stronger than anyone else, I think.

Leech/fitz -

Post #207: CA goes after Korashk for requesting replacement. If he was distancing, the replacement would be a very convenient time to drop it with no consequences, so

Sotty/Llama --

Post #236: The last sentence here doesn't follow at all from what comes before it in any way that I can see, and is definitely a

Prana/fitz -

Post #240: CA continues to pursue Korashk even after he has been replaced. Definitely, definitely

Llama/Sotty --

Post #241: And Prana jumps back to CA for the above.

Prana/Sotty -

Post #246: Possible slip here; Prana says that fitz is "convinced he is right", which kind of sounds like he is assuming that fitz is town, while arguing that fitz is scummy. A bit more

Prana/fitz -

Post #250: CA attributes a Prana post to me.

Sotty/Prana -

Post #255: Llama replace-in ultimately concludes CA and fitz as the most suspect.

Llama/Sotty -, Llama/fitz -

Post #262: fitz says that town Llama would = scum CA, then votes Llama.

fitz/Llama -

,

fitz/Sotty -

Post #267: Prana is directly asked to comment on Leech, and his response comes across a little like he is reluctant to do so.

Prana/Leech +

Post #276: Good case on CA from Llama, and it came when attention was starting to disappear on CA.

Llama/Sotty --

Post #285: Petty little snipe here, not likely to come between scum partners. If they're going to attack each other, scum do it big.

Prana/fitz -

Post #379: I FEEL THE NEED TO FEEL THE NEED TO POINT OUT THAT YOU FEEL THE NEED. FEEL IT. FEEL THE NEED IN ME.

Leech/fitz -

Post #441: Trying to decide if the Prana line here is more likely to be scum-on-scum or scum-on-town... I suppose it depends on the followup. Nightwolf being right in the middle of the town reads =

Llama/Nightwolf +

Post #472: Several people responded to my "why don't you want to lynch CA?" questioning to say that actually, they wouldn't mind lynching CA. Nightwolf specifically says that he'd lynch CA

over wendy

, which makes it less of an empty gesture, so

Nightwolf/Sotty -

Post #474: fitz doesn't just disagree with lynching CA, he actively discourages me from even thinking about it.

fitz/Sotty +

Post #495: Leech is not willing to let go of a really poor point against fitz, that's a

Leech/fitz -

"I never said I was opposed to a CA lynch." -

Leech/Sotty +

Post #603: I just realised that this post is wrong, I meant "signal to noise ratio

decreased

". No wonder Nexus was confused.

Post #626: "wendy has done a ton of stuff that's so scummy that I've seen less scummy scum." kind of sounds like another case of Prana assuming wendy is town while calling him scum. I know I said I was focusing on looking at scum partnerships, but there's been like five pages where it's all just people talking about Xite and wendy.

Post #631: fitz throws in a nice little dig at Llama to round out the day.

fitz/Llama -

Post #645: Leech agrees with my idea that the wendy kill implicates someone who had been getting off easy. That's a fairly short list at that point, especially if you remove Leech himself from the equation.

Leech/Nightwolf -

Post #652: So here's the followup to that Llama comment I mentioned earlier. Llama seems delighted to have something solid to bolster his gut read from earlier,

Llama/Prana -

OTOH,

Llama/fitz +

Post #666: That'll be a

Llama/Prana -, Llama/fitz -, Llama/Nightwolf +, Llama/Leech +

Post #677: Prana's endless argument with Lat contained a good deal of insistance that wendy being town doesn't mean there is anything worthwhile in his posts, which, in addition to being generally scummy, is a

Prana/fitz +

Post #699: Llama makes a solid contribution to the mounting pressure on Prana.

Llama/Prana -

Post #702: Prana responds with a rather less solid contribution to the pressure on Llama.

Prana/Llama -

Post #704: Meanwhile, Leech continues to insist that an obvious null tell from Llama is a scum tell.

Leech/Llama -

Post #731: Nightwolf not just accepting Llama's answer here is very definitely a

Nightwolf/Llama --

Post #735: fitz writes off the possibility of CA/Sotty as scum for a completely ridiculous reason, which I believe he is still pushing even now.

fitz/Sotty +

Post #749: Totally unwarranted hostility from fitz to Nightwolf here.

fitz/Nightwolf -

Post #779: Sotty comes in with another solid case on Prana.

Sotty/Prana -

Post #783: fitz answers Lat's "who are your top two scum" question with a bonus third place answer of Llama. I can't see scumfitz being so desperate to get some distancing in that he'd have to break the parameters of the question, so

fitz/Llama -

Post #788: Llama limits possible partners for fitz. On the one hand, if fitz was his partner, this would make it harder for him to link other players to him if he was lynched. On the other hand, it makes it less likely that fitz would be lynched in general. And since Llama was more on the chopping black than fitz at this stage, I'm going to rank this as a

Llama/fitz +

Post #811: Extremely protracted explanation from Nightwolf as to why he voted Llama without any particular desire to see Llama lynched. But basically, he voted Llama without any desire to see Llama lynched, so

Nightwolf/Llama ++

FINAL SCORES:

SCORES AT THE END OF DAY ONE:

Sotty

Leech: 3
Nightwolf: -1
fitz: 0
Llama: -7
Prana: -8

Llama

Nightwolf: 2
Leech: 0
fitz: -3
Prana: -5
Sotty: -7

fitz

Sotty: 0
Nightwolf: -1
Llama: -3
Leech: -3
Prana: -3

Prana

Leech: 2
Nightwolf: 2
fitz: -3
Llama: -5
Sotty: -8

Leech

Sotty: 3
Prana: 2
Llama: 0
Nightwolf: -1
fitz: -3

Nightwolf

Prana: 2
Llama: 2
fitz: -1
Leech: -1
Sotty: -1


Now let's take a look at some wagons:

Post 8-30

LML (3)

-

Nexus

, CA, Prana

Post 59-136
CA (3) - Llama,

iam

, Prana

Post 155-208

Nexus (4)

-

Xite, LML, Lat

, Leech

Post 192-241
Korashk (4) -

dalt

, CA, Prana,

Nexus

Post 262-288
Llama (4) -

dalt

, CA,

Nexus

, fitz

Post 369-370

wendy (5)

- Nightwolf,

Xite, LML

, Prana,

wendy

Post 375-386

wendy (5)

- Nightwolf,

Xite, LML

, Prana, Leech

Post 408-509

wendy (5)

-

Xite, LML

, Prana, Leech, fitz

Post 518-586

Xite (4)

-

Lat

, Nightwolf, Leech,

wendy

Post 586-611

wendy (6)

-

Xite, LML

, Prana, fitz,

Nexus, wendy

Post 624-End of D1

Xite (6)

-

Lat

, Nightwolf, Leech,

iam

,

wendy

, Llama

Post 760-763
Llama (5) - Leech, Prana, Nightwolf,

LML, Nexus

Post 799-804

LML (3)

-

iam

, Llama,

Nexus

Post 834-836

Nexus (4)

- fitz, Nightwolf, Leech, Llama

Post 840-843

LML (4)

-

iam

, Sotty, Nightwolf, Llama

Post 843-End of D2

Nexus (4)

- fitz, Leech,

Lat

, Nightwolf

Something that strikes me here is that Nightwolf and Leech seem to appear together quite often; most notably, they're the only two names (well, of the living) that appear on both lynching wagons. I think it's pretty unlikely that scum would stick so close together. Voting together one day or the other, sure, but I don't think they'd do it on both.

---

The other big big thing is the wendy and LML nightkills. There are two players that I simply do not believe would have come out with those kills on their own, and those players are fitz and Prana. On that basis, I'm fully prepared to write off fitz/Prana, fitz/Sotty and Prana/Sotty as possible pairings (No one was occupying Sotty's slot during N1, so if she's scum, her partner acted alone in killing wendy).

So, if I remove Leech/Nightwolf, fitz/Prana, fitz/Sotty and Prana/Sotty, plus anything that scored below -2 on my pairing analysis, it leaves these possible pairings:

Sotty/Leech
Sotty/Nightwolf
Llama/Leech
Llama/Nightwolf
Prana/Leech
Prana/Nightwolf
fitz/Nightwolf

Yeah, so pretty much, I think one or the other of Leech or Nightwolf is scum, but not both. I also think that whichever one it is, their partner is Prana, hence the vote. Here are some reasons.

All of the following Prana quotes strike me in some way as betraying a scum mindset:

I have no clue if he deliberately lied or not, I'm just pointing out to claim he deliberately lied is to paint him scummy for your own ends, and to not actually consider all possibilities, which

we, as town

, should be doing.

Do I need to explain this one?

Things aren't set black and white, you are deliberately ignoring the fact there are other potential factors, everyone is pointing this out, and you're sitting there with your fingers in your ears ignoring everything people are saying,

convinced you are right.

If fitz was scum pushing a mislynch, which Prana was arguing, he wouldn't be convinced he was right, he'd know he was wrong.

[quote="Prana, iso 41]Now are you going to try scum hunting or are you destined to just distract town by tunnelling on me over a completely pointless issue? Because if it's the second one I may well vote for you on principle so we can get you out of the way and get on with some real scum hunting here.[/quote]

"I may well vote you on principle" - it seems like he's just non-commitally floating the idea of a policy lynch here to see if he can get away with it.

Actually I've not too long ago said CA is still one of my picks as likely scum.

Wording issue here; the fact that he mentions that he's said it not too long ago, rather than just saying straight "CA is still one of my likely picks as scum" suggests that he is overly concerned with appearing consistent.

wendy HAS done a ton of stuff that's so scummy that I've seen less scummy scum.

^ This is a big one. Just, really think about what he's actually saying here. wendy has been remarkably scummy, so scummy, in fact, that Prana has seen

less scummy scum

. Why would that be at all remarkable if wendy was scum? It wouldn't. This sentence only makes sense if Prana is saying that wendy was a remarkably scummy

townie

.

I'm not one for tunnelling if I can help it unless the person is acting considerably scummy (see: wendy).

The first in a long series of posts on D2 where Prana continues to insist that wendy was scummy scum scum even though he died and flipped town. Basically, the purpose of this is to place the responsibility for wendy's lynch on wendy's shoulders, and thus not on Prana.

And now I run into the brick wall of Prana and Lat's wall of text arguments, against which I beat my head repeatedly.

I do love how I'm being made out to be scummy... for doing something pro-town.

Kinda sounds like the old "I'm being suspecteded for the wrong reasons" tell.

---

In addition to all of that, I think the whole point about him forgetting, or "losing track" of his suspicions on Xite from Lat was a good one, and I have never been satisfied with Prana's explanation for it, no matter how many times he repeats it.

I still think Llama's no lynch push on D2 would be a huge and totally unnecessary risk for him as scum, and I just have a strong gut feel that fitz is town, so if Prana is town, that would PoE it down to Sotty + Leech/Nightwolf, but I really think it's Prana at this point.

This post might all be a little disjointed, but I've spent far too long on it already and it's holding me back from keeping up with more recent stuff, so. Hitting the submit button. Gonna respond to stuff from today in a moment.

[iamausername]

[Leech] went after me for getting Xite lynched over TW when he was voting Xite.

I don't remember this happening, but if it did, that is a damn fine point against Leech. Can I get some quotage/linkage?

Ok, I've had a few things to say that I've witheld due to no lynching. IAU clearly stated that when we no-lynch it should be done mercilessly. Then, when time comes he decides to post this:

I'd be right there with you all, but I'm concerned about the possibility that we no lynch and then a townie flakes on us and we lose because he gets modkilled.

While, on the surface, that looks like good advice, he used that to avoid no-lynching. Also, what he fails to realize that is that there is no such thing as townie inactivity in the night phase. LmL was inactive for a long time, so he was going to be mod-killed due to inactivity. With a less than 24 hour day phase, someone couldn't have been inactive long enough to actually get mod-killed. Making the day take longer, though? That would give a player long enough to actually be mod-killed due to inactivity. So, all things considered, that is an extremely scummy suggestion. No-lynching quickly would only prevent someone from getting mod-killed due to inactivity. So his actions were opposite of his words.

In fact, IAU didn't no-lynch until the third phase of no-lynching. Isn't it odd how one of the main advocators of nolynching the day before MyLo refrained from doing it so long? I'm really not liking how IAU is saying one thing while doing another.

Well, this is all really dumb. What makes you think that inactivity modkills would only affect us if they happened yesterday? My concern was that it might happen TODAY (or even tomorrow). Unless you think we should be rushing through every day in 24 hours too, this is still a concern. Any townie flaking now will potentially lose the game for us. I want to make sure everyone is aware of that. If you flake, you aren't just causing a disruption, you are completely throwing the game and ruining nine other people's hopes of victory. I know this is kind of pot calling the kettle black considering that I have been the least active player today, but it is vitally important that this is impressed upon everyone's minds. NO FLAKING.

I think Sotty is cleared in that CA was awol at the end of D1 and I'm inclined to think both scum votes were in play.

This is an incredibly ridiculous reason to clear Sotty, which conversely makes for a fine reason to clear fitz.

I almost want to give you this as it is some what important, but he can't answer a question from the frame of mind he was in back then, you shouldn't ask him to do that.

Huh? Why not?