/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Kmd4390]

Ok, I say no rolecops. The rest, I'm not sure of yet. Not sure I like the idea of an assassin. Maybe janitor and roleblocker?

Deadlines, I like option 2.

[Kmd4390]

Why do people have a problem with a one shot janitor?

Zorblag, I thought it was pretty obvious. Scumz finding and killing our power roles would be bad.

[Kmd4390]

Hmm. I just read the janitor PM. Didn't realize it was for a lynch. I was assuming NK. That's a little stronger than I assumed. I still think I prefer that to a rolecop or assassin though.

----

Hoopla, why are you speculating on what powers the town has?

----

Zorblag, I would have to look closer to answer your question. Not sure what good answering it does, but if you'd like me to, I will when I get home. I'm posting from my phone right now.

[Kmd4390]

I dunnoi don't want to go into too much detail on why, but I don't like the idea of power roles not being allowed to claim if they are close to being lynched. Also, most "lynch on sight" plans don't tend to be followed through.

vote janitor and roleblock

. I don't see myself changing my mind.

[Kmd4390]

Is mith an alt? I've never seen him in a game but he seems to know what he is talking about.

[Kmd4390]

Hoopla, lynch analysis is one of the biggest parts of my game. I don't think the janitor hurts that as much as you are saying.

[Kmd4390]

Hoopla, you are underestimating what power roles can do. Also, you seem to be assuming random kills from an assassin. Even if we go through with your plan, any power role who is run up near a lynch WILL die if there is an assassin alive. That's bad for town, obviously.

--------------

Guys, a daytime rolecop is dangerous. Seriously.

[Kmd4390]

Elmo, it should be obvious why a daytime rolecop is dangerous. Scum find a power role during the day and know who to NK.

[Kmd4390]

Prodded. Will post something relevant whenever I get a decent night of sleep. Or probably before that but still.

[Kmd4390]

Could you explain how you thought the janitor power would work?

Was assuming that they NK someone and we don't see the flip. Obviously, I was wrong.

But with the Tracker... are you seriously suggesting that a Tracker with a damning investigation should just sit on it (risking, oh, I dunno, getting killed before revealing that information?), or that to do so would qualify as a worthwhile sacrifice for the cause of not giving the Assassin a kill? That's ridiculous.

/agree

In case it wasn't obvious to everyone else: My previous question to Herodotus was more of a "So you're scum who was trying to figure out whether to give us a Hider or two?" thing. Other things that bug me about posts 90 and 96...

I'm just waiting for this business to be over so we can start hunting the scumz.

That pretty much sums up my thoughts.
Unless I'm mistaken, scum already picked town power roles.

[Kmd4390]

I agree with Zito on almost everything.

Tajo, thanks for the summary.

[Kmd4390]

Vote no to claims.

[Kmd4390]

vote option 2

. Thought id done that already.

[Kmd4390]

Dgb's reaction to a vote is awfully defensive.

[Kmd4390]

Not hider

[Kmd4390]

Vote Zoraster

---------------

Rhinox, no. Just lazy. Didn't know the hider claim thing was going on. I don't think I actually saw 348 or 349. I was bored of the whole "what roles should we give scum" discussion and was pretty much waiting for the actual game, so I skimmed over the role related stuff.

---------------

Tajo is town, but I disagree with most of what he says.

---------------

Elmo is town. I also will be willing to listen to any meta tells he has on Elli. Scumbuddy followed by mod-town is a great way to pick up meta.

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox, last I knew before that, most people were against any kind of claiming.

[Kmd4390]

"SCUM: expected to be overly skeptical because they

know

I'm making it up." - emphasis mine. I was aware of your response to Troll re: diminishing probability, but it doesn't ring true. (297 sticks out in the stream of posts, actually... Asking if we are assuming no Hiders after assuming no Hiders for your scumhunting leads me to think 286 was a slip, rather than something representing your actual mindset at the time.)

Actually, that makes more sense now.

[Kmd4390]

A more global question:

I love killin me people but this KMD wagon seems to be growing on its own fat. Que?

What about the Hoopla wagon?

[Kmd4390]

I have to catch up. Unfortunately, it won't be today.

[Kmd4390]

Guys, I might be able to catch up tomorrow. Actually got a day off so if I wake up early, I can catch up on my games before I go do something with my girlfriend.

[Kmd4390]

Just wore myself out on another game. I'll try to catch up on this later today.

[Kmd4390]

Spy, yeah I'm sick and still worn out. Hopefully tomorrow. Or hell, maybe I'll get my ass off the couch and get to a computer before bed. (Phone post)

[Kmd4390]

Ok, starting with Page 20. Let's see what I missed.

------------

What is the Law of Averages that everyone is talking about?

------------

mith, need to finish this read before I have a good enough idea of suspicions to properly answer your question. If this post doesn't make it clear enough, feel free to ask again because I will forget you asked.

------------

I agree with Rhinox that Zito's opinion that hiders should have fakeclaimed is a bad one. However, I agree with Mith that it isn't scummy.

-----------

Post 508 by Zoraster seems to be a lot of useless "opinions" that don't say town or scum on anyone.
-"it's unfortunate DGB went AWOL ...it's not scummy she's going to Caffwagon."
-"Papa zito to me comes across as more frustrating than scummy. I reserve the right to revise that, but so far he just comes across as kind of an asshole."
-"Hoopla, usually pretty collected and thoughtful in her posts has become more and more incoherent. Hoopla: why herod? "
-"MME needs to step up and actually answer because he or she clearly has no idea what's going on in the game."

It's just a summary of what is going on for the most part. No solid opinions. He literally just says:
-DGB is V/LA
-Zito isn't scummy, but here's an out to change my mind
-Hoopla's posting style is different
-MME is lurking

Not posting solid opinions is one of the scummiest things you can do. It gives you an excuse to vote whichever way you want later on because you haven't said anything solid one way or the other yet.

If I wasn't already voting Zoraster, I'd vote him for this post alone.

------------

Hero is extremely difficult for me to read in his posts directed at DGB on Page 22.

-----------

Amished, you say you want to convince Zoraster that he is wrong. This implies a strong town read on Zoraster (scum already know and don't need to be "convinced"). Why so sure Zoraster is town?

------------

Ok, only made it through 3 pages for now, but I'll get around to the rest tonight if I can.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, I see the deadline, so tonight, I'm going to read til my eyes bleed. It might not be til 2 or 3 in the morning, but I don't care. I'm doin' it up.

[Kmd4390]

Shit. Yeah, deadline at 1:30...

Not sure I can be home by then. I'll try though.

[Kmd4390]

vote hoopla

for the sake of lynching someone.

[Kmd4390]

vote elmo

Will make a real post when it isn't 4 am and I have energy, but elmo needs to die ASAP.

[Kmd4390]

Dgb, whenever I get to a computer to copy and paste my real post, there are points against elmo there. He's so obvscum that it hurts. There's even a song about it. Maybe you've heard it.

Elmos got a gun
Big birds on the run
Ernies dialin 911
What made elmo snap
Was he tired of big birds crap

And already I can't remember the next line.

Oh and by the way hoopla's breadcrumb was not at all obvious.

[Kmd4390]

Tajo was the vig kill. No, I am not claiming vig. It is just painfully obvious.

[Kmd4390]

See, that's the thing about elmo. He was giving opiinions here and there but you'd have to look to know what any of them were. He didn't push the issue. No getting in the way of what he disagreed with or trying to push what he wanted. Just a passive voice. No stepping on any toes.

[Kmd4390]

Spy, you're doing it wrong. We need to lych elmo today.

[Kmd4390]

Dgb is definitely on the right track.

[Kmd4390]

Elmo didn't even hint at suspicion of amished yesterday. I checked before voting.

[Kmd4390]

unvote

Fine with mith's plan.

[Kmd4390]

Wait, what? (To elmo)

[Kmd4390]

vote elmo

I like spy's words.

[Kmd4390]

Elmo, I don't understand that post.

[Kmd4390]

All of it

[Kmd4390]

unvote, vote zoraster

[Kmd4390]

For clarification, elmo shot AMISHED, not tajo.

---------

Vas, don't sit her and act like every bit of any scum post is a direct effect of daytalking coaching.

[Kmd4390]

No.

[Kmd4390]

Mtih, the scum already know that elmo killed amished and they know whether they killed amished or tajo. They already know who killed who, so I don't see what extra information they can possibly be getting.

[Kmd4390]

K.

[Kmd4390]

Vas, I hope you aren't being serious. There's obviously no post restriction.

[Kmd4390]

But it wasn't a scumlist. It was an everyone else list. What makes vas "town" rather than "everyone else"? Id assume the "town" list is town reads and everyone else is those who don't fit. So why does vas fit as town?

[Kmd4390]

I'm starting to agree with ooba. I could see vas/rhinox as scumbuddies

[Kmd4390]

I'm starting to agree with ooba. I could see vas/rhinox as scumbuddies

Awesome. So I'm town when VV flips town then?

Huh?

No...?

[Kmd4390]

DGB, it's more the placement of Vas on Rhinox's "town" list as opposed to "everyone else" and then refusal to explain why he has Vas as "town" on the list.

-----------

Rhinox, I figured that, but still don't like it.

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox, I figured that, but still don't like it.

OK, let me try again without the sarcasm: Suppose VV is lynched today and flipped town, then what would your opinion be?

Opinion of you?

It wouldn't change. The only thing that would change is I'd know that you weren't scum specifically with Vas. So, basically that Vas was town. Which would be obvious with the flip and all.

then refusal to explain why he has Vas as "town" on the list.

P.S. didn't I just explain that?

Yeah. Not at first though:

Because if you're not scum, the only other option in this game is town.

Why do you ask if you don't think he's scummy?

[Kmd4390]

Rhinox, id have to do a VCA TM to get any info from a vastownflip.

[Kmd4390]

Seraph: is anyone besides VV scum?

Rhinox is.

[Kmd4390]

unvote, vote ooba

[Kmd4390]

Dgb, do you think ooba and vas could be scum together?

[Kmd4390]

Ekim, nothing changed. I could see ooba bussing.

Guys, sorry to do this, but I have to make a separate post for each page I read. Phone post...

[Kmd4390]

Sera is so town.

[Kmd4390]

ubvote, vote vas

Too scummy to ignore. And not sure I buy zito's "find the vig" case on ooba.

[Kmd4390]

Self-meta to call another player scum? Didn't you pass that phase years ago?

[Kmd4390]

Why is vas still alive?

[Kmd4390]

Can't decide whether zoraster or vas is scummier and I don't think both are scum.

[Kmd4390]

unvote, vote zoraster

I prefer zoraster then vas then ooba of the three wagons.

[Kmd4390]

Sera, if you are saying there are 4 viable wagons, why should we only rank 3 of the 4 wagons? Why not just rank all 4?

[Kmd4390]

My post didn't go through?

Any coaching arguement about vas is just wrong. Acting like a VI would make him vig bait. The arguement that he'd be coached to play better makes no sense because you don't just turn on a "play better" switch. No matter what his buddies tell him, his play won't change too drastically.

[Kmd4390]

so you think...I guessed that elmo killed amished and was right or...? What am I missing here?

[Kmd4390]

Oh crap. Zoraster is town and mith is scum.

unvote, vote vas

Do we have time to do this?

[Kmd4390]

Oh and because we don't have time for someone to ask what I'm talking about and then I explain, I'll do it now.

Mith just said that zoraster, if scum, should know from the QT about my claim. Then he goes on to vote zoraster saying that zoraster is playing dumb. It would make no sense for zoraster to do this. What advantage does he have? All it does is say his read of me is a scum one instead of town. How is that worth lying for? It isn't. Mith is looking for a reason to vote zoraster.

Edit: lol sera asked. To address you specifically, I think mith just wants to hop on. Maybe its a bus vote, but it looks scum-on-town at first glance.

[Kmd4390]

Sera, not likely before deadline unfortunately. That's why I voted Vas and not mith.

-------------

mith, explain to me why zoraster could possibly want to act like he didn't know I'd claimed tracker. I think you wanted to jump the wagon and felt the need to add a reason you didn't actually believe. Why? Not sure. Maybe your buddy is being wagoned and you wanted to contribute to the zoraster wagon's momentum. Maybe it's a late attempt at bussing for town cred. Maybe you thought he was a power role. I have no idea why, but nothing about it looks like legit suspicion.

--------------

Hero, I doubt that in 4 days I'll be able to get 9 people to vote someone who has hardly been suspected all game.

[Kmd4390]

Ekim, its not about whether I personally think zoraster saw my claim or not. Its what mith said. Mith believes that if zoraster were scum, his buddies would have informed him of the claim, therefore if zoraster doesn't know I claimed, he must be town. Mith goes on to say zoraster is playing dumb, then votes zoraster. I don't understand how mith can possibly honestly believe that zoraster would act like he didn't see the claim just to fake a scum read on me, but not vote me.

My personal opinion is that zoraster honestly didn't see my claim. Mith brings up a valid point that it was likely discussed in the QT, but if zoraster fell behind, I could see him as scum not really grasping the QT discussion. Its a slight point in his favor if anything. I just don't like the way mith brings up what he sees as a point in zoraster's favor, then dismisses that point in order to vote him.

[Kmd4390]

mith, that actually is a helpful way to lay that out. You state c which shows a solid opinion that scum would know what is going on. But with c in mind, d makes no sense. Why would scum play dumb? How could that possibly make sense as a strategy? E could be explained by laziness. He could have skimmed and not caught everything. Not indicitive of alignment, but my point against you is based on the reasons for

your

read on zoraster, not my own. G is such a bad leap that it makes me want to take my eye out with a spoon, feed it to a squirrel, find an Ethiopian with AIDS, and have them piss in my empty eye socket. H is pure confirmation bias.

The playing dumb vs ignorance thing makes no sense. I know you are a football fan, so let's go with this example. I picked the Packers to win the NFC East. But there's a slim chance that the Lions or Bears could take it. So does that make my Packers pick a bad one? No, because the Lions and Bears suck something about 9 inches....around. Point is a slight chance of something happening doesn't nullify something that there is a greater chance of. Until you tell me something that convinces me that zoraster was playing dumb or even could have been, I don't accept that reasoning.

I don't see how you could think that zoraster would expect someone to go "oh, wait, he doesn't know that? He MUST be town! Now we can't lynch him anymore! Let's have a tea party instead." Nooffense to zoraster, but I don't think he's good enough to force a reaction like that, so I doubt that's what he was trying to do.

Unvote Vas, Vote mith

. I'm just so much more sure of mithscum than anything else in this game (aside from elmo killing amished and my own alignment). Let's get this done quickly. Deadline approaches us. GOGOGOGOGO.

Wait. The part where you say "I'm still not seeing how he as town doing a reread and posting thoughts on everyone could have possibly missed the Kmd claim" ... Why does he have to be scum if this is the case? You could replace the word "town" with "scum" and it still makes just as much sense. How could scum possibly miss that? How could town? The answer doesn't change either way.

Damn, this is gonna be tough to win. DGB and mith are both scum and I'm dying tonight. Who wants to make sure both of them are lynched for me? If Spy is scum too, we are flat out screwed. And he might be. Crap.

[Kmd4390]

unvote, vote zoraster

This is all we have time for.

[Kmd4390]

Vas doesn't have the votes to be lynched in time. Its zoraster or no lynch.

[Kmd4390]

If we no lynch and hero is still voting dgb, don't let him get away with it tomorrow.

[Kmd4390]

Mith, I could see dgb as your scumbuddy, but zoraster has more votes.

------

Hero, no. You specifically said you'd be around to switch. I want to make sure that isn't an empty statement.

-------

Mith, "power roles should know what to do"....does this apply to anyone other than the vig? Did I miss anything?

[Kmd4390]

Vote mith

-----------

I tracked a dead guy. Hero didn't go anywhere, obviously.

[Kmd4390]

Mith+DGB are scum if zora flips town ..

Still support this? I hope?

--------------

I'd think I'd be roleblocked, but my result doesn't seem to imply that. In fact, pretty much the opposite. I'll ask the Mod for confirmation.

[Kmd4390]

Yeah it seems to imply pretty heavily that my result is that Hero didn't go anywhere, not that I don't have a result. I PM'd the Mod for clarification though.

[Kmd4390]

Yeah, I wasn't blocked.

[Kmd4390]

Mith, I'll go back to that post when I get to a computer. Might be a few days.

The fact that we had a vig does nothing for my opinion of you.

As far as pointing out the way to play with the me/elmo thing, that does nothing either. Its not hard as scum to get involved in planning how to use power roles and still do it the same way you would as town, especially when all you really plan is one player NOT to be lynched.

You already know my take on the zoraster vote.

-------

Dgb is tomorrow's lynch.

[Kmd4390]

Mith, well I could see you wanting zoraster lynched if vas is your scumbuddy or if zoraster's suspicions about scumdgb were accurate. There are plenty of reasons why you'd want zoraster lynched. Its hard to say though because you play differently than I do. When I'm scum, I push the scummier player and try to make myself look good and genuine in the process. You seem to be looking deeper than that and its hard for me to understand specifics in your logic. I saw what I saw and that was you giving a reason why zoraster is town, disposing of that reason for something extremely weak, and putting zoraster at L-1 and demanding a claim.

Also, ignoring the appeal to authority. That shit doesn't work on me.

[Kmd4390]

Mith, how is the case, AT ALL, based on different styles of play? It's not. It's a major inconsistency in your logic for voting zoraster.

To your "b" on my thought process, close enough. I actually am saying you dismissed the town point, not that you ignored it. But semantics blah blah. "C" is a gross understatement of my thoughts. It's more like "OMG mith just put zoraster at L-1 and demanded a claim for reasons that make no sense AFTER he just gave a reason for zoraster to be town".

To "b" on

your

thought process, not at all true. Sure, it's opposite, but there is nothing equal about it. This has been my main point this entire time. I don't know how many times I have to repeat this.

There is no reason why zoraster would fake a scum read on confirmed town. I don't see how you could possibly think this to be and "equal" alternative to the possibility that he just hadn't read closely enough to see it.

There is just no benefit for scum to do that. There is no way he'd get support for a lynch on me, which he wasn't trying to do anyway considering he had me as a number 2 or 3 suspect and didn't vote me. And there is no way he would have thought "hey, maybe someone will see this, think I'm not paying attention, and must be town because a QuickTopic would have discussed this already". I just don't see how you can think that's an equal possibility.

On "c", what was the "additional" reason? To me, it looked like you were just voting him on the possibility that he was faking ignorance regarding my claim. Oh, you mean that he was lurking and calling DGB scum? Ok, didn't realize you thought that was an actual case.

If "f" was the case, why not mention the deadline AT ALL when you voted?

The appeal to authority is the fact that you mention being the site owner and try to use that to discredit my case.

------------

Iam, what about mith's logic makes more sense than mine?

-------------

Going back to 1170 now. (finally on a computer)

Wow. The first part of that is the closest you have come to understanding my case. Let me quote it:

Obviously if you don't agree with a premise (D: playing dumb is possible), you aren't going to agree with the conclusion.

THIS IS EXACTLY IT

. I don't agree that it makes any sense at all for zoraster to play dumb on that issue. Therefore, I don't see it as a strong enough possibility for you to dismiss your town point on zoraster. This makes the fact that you voted him scummy.

Wow, did I seriously do that? I was going to use the NFC East as an example and got halfway through it before realizing how much better the NFC North worked. Guess I forgot to change it.

Ok, I don't think many can argue that the Lions and Bears have more than a 15% chance between them to win the division. Let's even give the Vikings 40%. So if the Packers only have a 45% chance, would you be willing to bet against them based on that fact even though they have the best chance to win? I sure as hell wouldn't. The Lions and Bears being in the division doesn't mean shit because they don't win shit. The chance that zoraster was playing dumb doesn't mean shit because chances of it being true are shit. Should we lynch someone on V/LA because being V/LA can come from either alignment, but only scum would lie about it?

No, no, no. The Packers represent "He could be either alignment who missed the claim". This was the neutral possibility. The Lions/Bears represent scum lying. The Vikings are just kind of there because we know the NFC North has 4 teams.

The Vas thing makes more sense until you factor in the vig. VIs, for whatever reason, tend to avoid the ropes and live longer than they should. It's a possible strategy. It's

possible

that Vas could have done that. Obviously, I personally wouldn't. But it's possible. I don't see where the zoraster thing is

possible

. There is a major difference there.

Premise 1: Actual ignorance is a null-tell.
Premise 2: Feigned ignorance is possible, and can only come from scum.
Conclusion: The ignorance on display is a slight scum-tell (add a small possibility of definite scum to what is otherwise a null-tell).

^This right here is just wrong. Premise 2 makes absolutely NO SENSE. You are using math (50% chance of alignment on Premise 1 vs 100% scum in Premise 2 = more than 50% scum = vote zoraster) where simple logic shows it to be just plain wrong.

---------------

To Hero's 1183:
Yes, Hero is confirmed town. That doesn't confirm his reads. All he really says is that he bought your defense, but he thinks zoraster's post is genuine.

To Elmo's 1199:
The only thing he says is that the wagon is bad. Again, confirmed alignment doesn't mean confirmed reads.

To Iam's catchup post:
Uh... what are we looking at here? The fact that he has a town read on you?

--------------

You are just pulling everything you can find to try to defend yourself. None of what you have said has come close to being more townie than the zoraster vote was scummy.

[Kmd4390]

He seems to be pushing:

50% chance of alignment on Premise 1 vs 100% scum in Premise 2 = more than 50% scum = vote zoraster

[Kmd4390]

Ok, here is the post in question, broken down, but nothing added or removed:

Surely if zoraster is scum, he would be aware of the Kmd/Elmo situation (via quicktopic if nothing else).

Zoraster must be town in the above statement.

But on the other hand, surely if zoraster were town and thought the Elmo situation were worth discussing, and had been told

why

it wasn't being discussed, he would

go read the relevant portions of the thread

.

He should also be aware of it as town. Therefore, either alignment

should

know what is going on.

This is even more detached from reality than the pre-V/LA My Milked Eek post. Ignorance is probably about as (un)likely either way, but add the possibility that he's scum playing dumb and it's yet another point against him.

The fact that either alignment should know what is going on makes the ignorance null. But hey, he could be lying. This is a point against him. (That's the leap I don't get. I challenge ANYONE to tell me how this makes sense)

Nothing about that post reassures me about zoraster (still not much of a DGB case, nor a vote; the "I'm more active than MME!" comment; more "eh?" moments with Herodotus - what concern? - and "Rhinox/Seraphim"...).

"Oh, and here are some other reasons to call Zoraster scum. I think they sound good enough that I can vote now"

zoraster: Claim.

UNVOTE: DrippingGoofball
VOTE: zoraster (L-1)

Nuff said.

[Kmd4390]

"So if the Packers only have a 45% chance, would you be willing to bet against them based on that fact even though they have the best chance to win?" - It's not worth attempting to discuss logic with someone who can't understand that if the Packers have a 45% chance of winning and a 55% chance of not-winning, the correct bet is on them

not-winning

.

Not really. Because I think the chances of the Lions/Bears winning are close enough to call it zero, just like the chance of zoraster playing dumb regarding my claim is close enough to zero.

But it does explain why you lose all those avatar bets.[/ad hom]

This made me lol.

Can someone who isn't me please explain where Kmd is getting this wrong? He is obviously having trouble comprehending my posts, and I'm at a loss for what to do about it.

This is not true. I understand your posts, just not how you actually believe your logic.

[Kmd4390]

Iam, no. Tell me WHY he would lie. It just doesn't make sense at all.

You have to say that "zoraster lying is so much less likely than zoraster somehow not noticing Kmd's claim that it should be dismissed".

^This. Pretty much this.

----------

Mith, trying to turn me on to DGB is useless. I already think she is scum.

-----------

We are arguing in circles. I don't think there is any point continuing. I've laid out my case. You've defended. Let everyone else decide.

[Kmd4390]

I feel that my case is clear enough for people to vote for a good reason.

Also, I've got enough of a feel for the other players to decide who is a better lynch if it gets to be near deadline and people still haven't realized how obvscum you are.

[Kmd4390]

Based on dgb's stuff, plumpom is obvscum and needs to die.

[Kmd4390]

You guys misunderstood. Its not dgb's analysis. Its my look at the vote counts themselves in dgbs post with all the colors and stuff.

[Kmd4390]

Leaning a town read on KMD (so yes, imo this whole fight is an inter-townie thing).

Watch out. Mith might call you town and then vote you.

[Kmd4390]

Ooba, I could definitely see mith/rhinox/plumpom as scum. The 4th would either be DGB or Vas.

[Kmd4390]

Fate, why is not having a catchup post a scumtell?

[Kmd4390]

You ever tried to catchup as scum? Its EXTREMELY more difficult compared to town, as you have to read 55+ pages and come up with bullshit cases. Requires a lot of effort.

I don't think it requires any more effort than it does as town. This is comparable to the old fashinoned "scum lurk because they don't have to pay attention" arguement.

I can't tell you the number of scum I've caught based on replace-in catchup posts. I've seen scum vote in LYLO before without having fully caught up, based off -and i quote-"these last few pages". If only all scum could be so obv.

A bad catchup post, maybe. Because there is info to actually analyze that way. If someone is like "I'm too busy/lazy", it's not a scumtell.

I mean, sure there are lazy town that lack motivation to catchup fully and post content, but they drop more apathy tells. The thing with ooba is his LOLDGB VOTE, and then parkin it there before he finishes his read.

INGENIUNE=SCUMZ.

Ok, I can see your point here. I was more concerned with the Sera/Saint points you made though.

[Kmd4390]

Do you know sera IRL? If not, how do you know he isn't just too busy or something?

[Kmd4390]

This has been the comment that makes the most sense to me regarding mith vs. kmd, and I'd like to here a response from mith in the context of "either town or scum could not have a clue about whats going on in the thread, but only scum would fake it" - mith's logic for voting zoraster.

You

DO

listen to me.

Am I the only one that finds Vas's requesting replacement really wierd. >.>

No.

[Kmd4390]

FATE LEMME TRY THIS UR WAY

MITH IS SO SCUM AND NEEDS VOTES. HELP ME LYNCH HIM PLZZZZ.

[Kmd4390]

1. I wasn't voting zoraster because of ignorance. I was voting zoraster for a variety of reasons, and was discussing ignorance to talk through the logic (in that my initial thought was "scum would know what's going on, is he town?", and I was considering alternatives to that, eventually coming to the conclusion that it was in fact a minor point against). I clearly wasn't suggesting he should be lynched solely on the basis of a display of ignorance, any more than I would suggest a LA-V/LA plan.

A lot of the post where you voted him included this "minor point". The rest seemed to be thrown in as an after-thought.

2. V/LA is something that happens all the time, and additional many players (including myself) have ethical issues with lying about it (because it's out of game). Ignorance is something that seemed unlikely either way, and relative to that, the possibility of scum in a desperate situation playing dumb either because he's given up or for WIFOM reasons seemed more likely in comparison, at least to the point that it wasn't negligible.

Not catching a claim happens all the time too.

Scum could lurk if they've given up. I agree about ethical issues, but not everyone does. Maybe they say they are V/LA because they are giving up.

I still think it's a fair comparison.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote PlumPom

Sure. I'd still prefer mith though.

[Kmd4390]

Hello. Me and probably any other recent replacements would like a summary as reading this entire thing by deadline is unlikly. I probably won't be able to read it all til a good night phase arrives. Will likly just focus on current game day and summary

Hey Poker. I'm confirmed town and mith is scum but we are lynching PlumPom because more people like that idea.

[Kmd4390]

I claimed to have tracked Elmo to Amished, who had died. Elmo confirmed this and claimed vig. He was killed last night and flipped vig.

I'm only scum if:

A.) Elmo is scum too

B.) I'm a good guesser.
C.) I picked up some kind of vig crumb/tell from Elmo and thought it was strong enough to fakeclaim
D.) Really can't think of anything to put here.

[Kmd4390]

Plumpom is definitely a better lynch than ooba. Even though mith is a better lynch than either.

[Kmd4390]

Hoopla's gambit. Who actually thinks she might have been scum?

I think Fate was the only one to suggest this. I'm basically ignoring the chance that she was scum because worst-case being wrong there is that we think we are in LYLO a day sooner than we actually are, meaning we are allowed an extra mislynch.

Did anyone claim Hider? I know DGB did, but rescinded it

No.

Any town claims besides KMD's tracker claim?

Not from anyone who is still alive.

[Kmd4390]

To me, this means either Ellibereth or DGB are scum, but not together.

Why?

Why would Mith be so hung up on what KMD thinks of him?

Because he is scum and knows that the lingering suspicion can't be a good thing for his chances of survival.

Also, stop talking about the second vig thing. Actually, stop guessing about what power roles scum gave us.

Why us PlumPom scummy in your opinion? You didn't mention them until your scumlist and vote.

-----------------

mith, I feel that DGB answered that post just fine.

Also, I assume you'd be willing to switch to PlumPom to avoid no lynch before deadline?

[Kmd4390]

Has anyone even tried to present a case on the p-fruits besides DGB's paint-by-numbers votecount analysis?

That's more than enough of a case for me.

[Kmd4390]

2 days.
Ooba or Plumen.
People need to start choosing.
Nao.

mith (1) -- Seraphim
DrippingGoofball (3) -- mith, Plumegranate, iamausername
Not voting: AdumbroDeus, PokerFace

^^^That means you guyz.

Um?

DGB and Ooba wagons are tied. Why is an Ooba vote more acceptable than DGB?

Elli, I've been patient with this for ages, but you do realize that the only thing Tajo found scummy about me was me voting ooba that late that long Day 1 - something I didn't actually do?

What does this have to do with anything?

Approximately something like this, from Towniest to scummiest. It's a bit arbitrary in the middle.

8). Kmd4390
9). mith
12). iamausername (replacing Papa Zito) ~ 18). HackerHuck (replacing VasudeVa)
3). Fate (replacing ekiM)
17). SpyreX
15). Rhinox
4). Ellibereth ~ 20). AdumbroDeus (replacing Zorblag)
16). Seraphim (replacing Slicey) ~11). ooba ~ 10). PokerFace (replacing My Milked Eek)
2). DrippingGoofball

So pretty much all the lurkers are scum?

[Kmd4390]

L-1.

Claim.

[Kmd4390]

Unvote, Vote DGB

Plum would have fakeclaimed a power role as scum.

[Kmd4390]

Plum, get back on DGB. There's still time.

[Kmd4390]

Mith, nothing has changed except plumtown.

[Kmd4390]

I'm actually a little less sure of dgbscum than I was before. She's a better lynch than ooba though.

[Kmd4390]

its more likely that a good scum player who is going down will try to stop their lynch or out the town power roles (maybe not so much the last one in this setup). Claiming vanilla does neither.

[Kmd4390]

Poker, no. Plum is town. Vote DGB instead.

[Kmd4390]

What the fuck DGB.

Not sure if I buy it or not, but it's not a good idea to lynch her now. Either scum will kill her, her results will prove her obvscum, we will have a 5th claimed power role, or she is town. If she is scum, we'll know it.

Unvote

I kind of agree with Fate (Wow, I'm amused. That was originally a typo reading "fart") that we don't need to out more power roles. Problem is PlumPom couldn't be any more obvtown right now.

Dammit!

I don't want to vote someone who I am near positive is town. I don't want to lynch a claimed tracker who has plenty of time to be caught lying. I don't want to no lynch. I don't want to force Ooba to claim.

I'm at a loss right now.

Fuck it.

Vote PlumPom

[Kmd4390]

Hmm. If DGB is town, there is definitely scum in those last three votes.

[Kmd4390]

This is just getting weird.

I assumed rhinox was coming out with a claim today so I tracked him to verify it. I got a result that he went nowhere. And I'm still alive for some reason. Can't really analyze shit now but saw the thread open and thought id report in with my (non)result.

[Kmd4390]

Rushed post but confirming that I wasn't blocked.

And yeah if anyone wants to claim a power role, go for it because 3 dead plus me makes four.

[Kmd4390]

KMD, who are the people you think are town again?

Poker, Plum, and Sera are my strongest town reads.

[Kmd4390]

Vote A dumb bro

[Kmd4390]

Step 1: Go to A Dumb Bro's ISO
Step 2: Hit Ctrl+F
Step 3: Type "DGB"
Step 4: Read context around everything highlighted
Step 5: Come in and post "A Dumb Bro is so obvscum", vote him, and watch him hang.

[Kmd4390]

DrippingGoofball

(8) -- mith, iamausername, Plumegranate, SpyreX,

Rhinox

, Seraphim, ooba, Fate
ooba (1) -- Ellibereth
Plumegranate (4) -- HackerHuck, AdumbroDeus, PokerFace, Kmd4390

Rhinox

(1) --

DrippingGoofball

There is scum in {HackerHuck, AdumbroDeus, PokerFace}

Thoughts as of page 51:
- Pretty sure I was wrong about the mith-DGB pairing
- iam-DGB pairing looks very likely
-- Also 1273 looks like iam cheerleading mith-KMD town-town argument
-- Or I could be wrong and it's mith-Rhinox
- Anyway would prefer a DGB flip over mith

Vote: DGB

between DGB\Plum and chose Plum..
- iam was scummy since I saw a possible iam\DGB pairing but iam seems genuine in wanting DGB lynched
- So I'd put my money on AD for the fourth

Vote: Plum

L-1..

I lol'd at this post ..

Unvote. Vote: DGB

Let's get Ooba after A Dumb Bro.

[Kmd4390]

Not changing my vote.

Lynchplz

[Kmd4390]

NO FATE. ADUMBRO FIRST THEN OOBA.

[Kmd4390]

Adumbro was clearly going to fakeclaim a power role as scum, but didn't because it would be certain death (counterclaim etc), so this was the best he could come up with.

[Kmd4390]

No, no, no.

My theory is that you were going to claim a power role, but realized that doing so would mean a lynch, so you decided not to do it SO YOU COULD STAY ALIVE.

A DUMB BRO IS OBVSCUMOBVSCUMDIEDIEDIE.

LYNCH PLZ.

[Kmd4390]

Because you are a self-proclaimed VI and VIs are more concerned with their own survival than their team's bigger picture.

[Kmd4390]

But if I'm scum, I'm not a VI, I just got picked out as scum and chose an outlandish defense.


Regardless, VI is relative to the game, I've shown more then competent play on numerous occasions, this game just went totally over my head. That fact doesn't mean I'd disregard basic principals like playing to win and that no individual is greater then the faction.

Meta me, look at my scum performance in Square-Enix mafia and my smashboards games if you wanna contrast my current play, I'm not the VI cause I'm dumb, I'm a VI I'm not strong enough for this crowd.

Any VI defense is no longer acceptable. Thanks.

Is it bad play if I just assume mith is town and nom him for a scummy if he's scum?

>_>

Yes.

This doesn't take into account the fact that the scum can daytalk.

Meh, I was mostly playing devil's advocate to get him to back off the VI thing and explain to us that he is competent, but I could see him thinking survival first unless a buddy specifically told him how to play.