/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)

[Zorblag]

Troll gives warm greetings to all.

Our choice for scum roles here should actually probably depend on what we think the scum were likely to do with their choices. If we think there be any chance them would have put two hiders or two weak doctors in the game then we want to avoid the roleblocker, if not then it probably be a good choice to make.

The assassin be pretty unappealing in most cases but Troll no expects many to think it be a good choice so Troll no needs to talk about it much.

The janitor actually be very unappealing as well in Troll's opinion. Not knowing the outcome of a flip from an early day be a pretty big deal when people try to take a look at things down the road. Troll thinks that might do the town more overall harm than just about any other action scum could take regardless of what the alignment of the kill actually was as it no be something we would ever fully compensate for during the game when trying to do analysis.

The role cop paired with the assassin would be particularly troublesome but as Troll no expects us to pick the assassin that be largely unimportant. It does combine fairly well with the roleblocker for scum but not in a way that be overly frightening in Troll's opinion.

Troll be inclined to agree with Hoopla that on their own the role cop/roleblocker combination be the safest way to go for the town if we don't want to make assumptions about what picks scum made. Troll would like to hear what people think the scum would have picked for the town though.

Troll thinks would have picked two vigilantes, one hider and one weak doctor based on the thinking about it Troll did when Troll read the setup.

Troll no really cares which deadline rules we use. It be the start of the game that we be likely to want more time in so the bankable days no matter too much but having a three week day one as opposed to a two week day one be unlikely to make a big difference. Them both be plenty of time to make that first choice.

@Kmd4390, why no rolecop in particular?

@Hoopla, actually Troll thinks that it probably be better for potential vigilantes to take shots if them think them have a better than random chance of hitting scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@Kmd4390, suppose the janitor uses their shot the first day (Troll assumes them would as it be the obvious time for it to be used.) That makes it significantly harder to make informed decisions the next day (and to a lesser degree for every day from there on out.) Anyone who's trying to do wagon analysis from then on out has a big hole in their work from day one that them no would have to. Anytime we try to reason about how scum would act based on how many of them there are left we'll need to consider more possibilities than we would otherwise.

No reveal is a very different game than what we be used to here. That one shot janitor makes the first day no reveal. Troll thinks that be a very bad thing for the town.

The role cop does give scum an advantage in finding power roles but Troll at least them no get extra kills to take them out. The town shouldn't be overly relying on them anyhow (unless we have two hiders or two weak doctors in which case we be in extra bonus land if we ever figure it out and there's no roleblocker in the game.)

What power roles would Kmd4390 have picked for the town if him were scum?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@Hoopla, regarding trackers, many times (unless we choose both the jailkeeper and rolecop) trackers will have other scum targets out there that their track could pick up.

Mostly Troll just wants to see if anyone would have picked two weak doctors or two hiders. If a fair amount of people would have then there be some chance that the scum might have and that changes our priorities here.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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We should stop voting for roleblocker at this point and consider the following sentiments:

But mith do find the Hider and especially the Weak Doc to be double-edged, since they have the potential to provide extra town deaths, and since their ability to confirm innocents is limited/risky. So, mith think it possible scum included either or both and in multiples.

Last, and sorry to keep posting but I can't help myself but start to get involved: Consider that our roles are likely to be 2 hiders who it really won't hurt to lose. Roleblocking that won't hurt, and assassinating that won't hurt.

Troll sort of thinks that this kind of thinking will be somewhat common. It also be a trap for scum if them went with it.

If we have two hiders in the game and no roleblocker then them can hide behind eachother each night giving us two confirmed (after the first night) unkillable pro-town players.

If we have two weak docs in the game and no roleblocker then them can protect eachother each night giving us two confirmed (after the first night) unkillable pro-town players.

This only works if we don't have a roleblocker who can break up the cross targeting and allow one of the weak doctors or both of the hiders (depending on which there be) to be night killed.

We should at this time seriously consider a hider claim. If we have two claimed hiders then any combination of scum roles that no includes the roleblocker is better than one that does. Either them will both be town (in which case we have confirmed, unkillable townies starting day two) one will be scum (in which case we trade a hider for a scum which Troll be perfectly happy to do) or them both will be scum (in which case we catch them both when the real power roles get revealed throughout the game and have two scum lynches down the road.)

If we have one claimed hider then them can avoid night kills anyhow unless we give the scum a roleblocker by hiding. Or them be scum and we would need to catch them down the road but them will already have committed to a particular fake claim.

If we have no claimed hiders then the town gains information and the scum gain none which be good.

If there are hiders in the game and them claim this lessens the power of a rolecop for the scum (them would have less to find) and it gives an assassin (should we choose to include one) no extra targets as the hider avoids their kills on their own anyhow.

The only way this could go badly would be if there was one hider and we wanted to pick the roleblocker. Actually, that be a somewhat likely combination so Troll no will down play it; it be a serious issue.

Unfortunately we no can do the same thing as easily with weak doctors because a single claimed weak doctor no has a way to protect them self like a hider would.

Troll was expecting to have another two days to figure out how Troll thought it was best to use this (as well as do some thinking about other things based on the game setup) but apparently the scum finished their decision early and as a result we started Day 0 early. Had Troll been posting for the first time tomorrow or Friday Troll expects would have said all of this with that first post.

In any case, Troll would like to discuss this before we make any decisions.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@mith, if the scum picked no hiders and try to fake claim one now then we almost certainly have tools to deal with that. Either a vig or a tracker be a fine way to test a hider claim. If there are no hiders then we either have one of those two or the scum gave us two weak doctors and two jailkeeprs. Troll deems that fairly unlikely for a number of reasons. Actually, Troll would be pretty pleased if scum tried to fake claim a hider Day zero all things considered. That almost certainly be a scum that would be caught before too long.

@ooba, actually, the order you have there no be quite right. Troll wants a hider claim first. If there be two claimed hiders then we go with no roleblocker. If there be no claimed hiders at all (many seem to think that mafia wouldn't have chosen any hiders so this could happen) then the role blocker be fine. Troll has been thinking about the one claimed hider situation. In the end, if mafia want to use a roleblock to try to kill a hider (and there be a fair chance that town would have the ability to protect a hider with either a weak doc or jailkeeper if them were to try) then Troll be willing to let them make that attempt. At this point Troll thinks that we should only forgo the roleblocker if we get that double hider claim.

@everyone, Troll will ask that you really think about this before dismissing it. Troll wants a hider claim at this point. Here be the reasons:

• If we have two hiders the benefit be absolutely excellent for town. It no be an automatic win but having two confirmed, unkillable townies be a huge advantage. Should one of the scum be fake claiming hider it will come out after the first night and we'll have found a scum already in exchange for a hider. That be a fine deal. Should both hiders be fake claiming we can catch them at it with either vig or tracker actions (and if we have no hiders we almost certainly have one of them.) In that case we catch two scum right from the start.
  
• If we have no hiders at all then town gains valuable information that the scum already had.
  
• If we have one hider claim then either the scum have serious decisions to make about how to deal with them even after them are out (them need to use a roleblock to have a chance at killing them on their own or them can let the hider possibly get killed via their normal actions) or it's scum faking it and we should probably catch them before too long with town power roles.

There be very high potential rewards (possibly up to partially game breaking) from a hider claim and there be very little that the town be risking.

Troll knows that claims at the start of the game be frowned upon but them should be made when the situation calls for it. This be exactly that sort of situation.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@ekiM, the potential benefits of two hiders to the town and danger to the mafia be largely negated by town picking a role blocker for the scum. Troll thinks that essentially everyone who has chimed in has said that roleblocker be the first choice them would make (Troll would have to go back and check that but it be at least close to what has happened.) Troll thinks that if scum considered hider a weak role (and we be talking about a role that can get itself killed by hiding with mafia, hiding with obv town that mafia kills or hiding with whoever any potential vigilante's choose to kill; despite the potential to clear townies it be a dicey role on it's own) them would have been tempted to double it up if them could count on the synergy being countered (which them almost certainly could.)

The chances of having two hiders in the game be slim but them exist. If them be there then we be fools not to use them.

You yourself seemed to think that a single hider in the game was a sort of alternate option by how you listed the priorities. There be a very real chance that scum avoided the altogether. If that be the case then it be good for the town to go with a hider claim now.

As for being able to use either vigilante kills or trackers to see what a claimed hider be up to as well as being able to protect them, their play be what would determine what makes sense there. The point be that we probably have options for how to approach a single claim no matter what we think of the at the end of the first couple days. We likely have multiple tools; we no need to decide right now which ones we must use.

If there no were a chance to have multiple hiders Troll probably wouldn't have suggested a hider claim. It still shouldn't be a terrible move but the possibility of two hiders makes it the right one at this point in Troll's assessment of the situation.

How much harm do you think it be likely to do? If we have the chance to make significant enhancements to the town's chances of winning then we should take them if the potential downside no be too severe. Troll firmly believes that to be the case here.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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Troll had life come up for a bit there. Troll catch up and post Troll's thoughts later this morning (PDT). Sorry about that absence.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@ekiM, it be clear that you think there no will be two hiders in the game at this point. Unless you be scum you could be wrong about that though. Assuming that you know how scum will play be a great way to make mistakes. The reason that the hider claim be worthwhile be that the penalties to the town for having a single hider claim be fairly limited by the nature of the role. Them have ways to protect them self and if we choose to put a roleblocker in the game who could prevent that we most likely have other town roles that can protect them if them be playing a game worth protecting.

@Elmo, again, as Troll said to ekiM, we would be foolish to pass on the opportunity to use two hiders in large part because there be so little at risk if we go with a hider claim. It no be something that the scum can trivially exploit (as opposed to just about any other power role claim.)

There still be much to be gained by knowing how many hiders we have in the game right from the get go. It prevents any future scum hider fake claims, it carries very little risk for the town overall and it has the potential to be particularly helpful if the scum made poor choices.

A mass claim be less appealing to Troll though it does have a few benefits (no future fake claims, safe selection of the role cop, helping the town determine the setup and make better selections for the scum roles now.) Troll tends to think that other than the hider the rest of the potential town power roles should do the town more good if them stay unidentified.

At this point Troll would like to hear exactly what it is that people think the town looses that be so bad with a hider claim. Troll thinks it be most clear what the town can gain (two or zero claims be explicitly great and good in turn, scum can no longer fake the claim later.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@Rhinox, the only time we would want to give scum a roleblocker would be if two hiders claimed. If we just got one claimed hider Troll be fine with giving them a roleblocker. If the scum choose to use their roleblock and kill on someone who might be protected by a weak doctor or a jailkeeper and who might kill themself by hiding behind scum or behind the person the mafia attempt to kill or behind someone a potential vig kills then Troll can certainly live with that use of their resources.

If we do have two hiders Troll would much rather have them hiding behind eachother right from the start than spending one night confirming others. The advantage of two unkillable confirmed townies be too great to want to risk getting them killed with their own roles (and there be plenty of ways for that to happen.)

If we get no hider claims at all and are able to narrowing in on the setup and what town roles there be there be more advantages than simply denying scum fake claims. It should help the town make informed decisions in general. Troll would argue that if we could know for sure which one (or more) of the power roles no was picked by the scum (and by the pigeonhole principle we do know that must be true for at least one of the power roles) we clearly be in better shape in terms of our expectations and information.

@Zoraster, if we get two hider claims and one was fake then we would get to lynch scum on day two. When the real hider tried to hide behind the mafia member them would get killed night one. If we have no roleblocker then it would be completely clear what happened. We no would need a mass claim to figure that out. Troll would trade our hider (if we have exactly one) and the ability to pick the roleblocker for a sure scum lynch come day two of a game this size.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@mith, Troll has been comfortable with making a roleblocker pick if we only get one hider claim since Post 79. It took Troll a bit more thinking to decide that but Troll thinks that the effort the scum would have to make to kill a known hider be somewhat significant (via the nature of the role) and there be be enough potential ways to stop it that Troll finds it acceptable to let them go that route should them choose it. Troll thinks that them might be tempted to see if the role will kill itself off on it's own instead as there be plenty of ways for that to happen which let them focus on other things. It depends a bit on what other roles be in the game and a lot on who actually be scum.

If we give the scum an assassin them could target a claimed hider, yes. Them would only succeed with that kill if the hider chose not to hide. Sure them would get to try again later but so long as the hider uses their ability (which them should want to do in almost all circumstances Troll would think) them no will do any extra damage to the town with that choice. Troll no particularly thinks we should give both the assassin and the roleblocker if we go with the hider claim (and get a single hider) but that should be clear.

Troll would actually probably still be inclined to say that the roleblocker/rolecop combination would be the way to go if we got a single hider claim actually. It seems to have fallen out of style of late but Troll still prefers both of those roles and their interactions to the assassin or janitor options.

Troll tends not to like the mass claim if we get a single hider claim idea. If there no be any hiders (which certainly be a possibility) then that lets scum decide if them want us to have a mass claim (assuming them would be likely to fake claim given the roles in the game.) Clearly them would attempt to make whatever choice be worse for the town in that case. Troll no would choose it on Troll's own but could live with a mass claim if we decided it was the way to go. We should probably want to do it from the start if that be the path we take.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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Troll no has been feeling well (Troll spent all of yesterday in bed for example; standing made Troll dizzy) so Troll no has been posting much. Troll apologizes for that.

Clearly Troll supports a hider claim. Troll probably doesn't support a mass claim.

Hider claim?
Yes - 3 (Plumegranate, mith, Troll)
No - 8 (ekiM, Amished, PZ, Rhinox, Vas, Hoopla, Spyrex, KMD4390)

Massclaim?
Yes - 1 (Hoopla)
No - 8 (ekiM, Plumegranate, Amished, PZ, Rhinox, Vas, SpyreX, KMD4390)

@Papa Zito, Troll realizes that you no particularly like to try to get into the game mechanics at the start. You have demonstrated that on multiple occasions in games that Troll has played with you. That no means that what we do here in terms of claims be useless as you be saying. Whether we claim various things or not and what roles we give the scum based on that actually does much to effect the shape of the game and making the best choice about that now after thinking about it should improve our chances of winning. The fact that we have a Day 0 and have these choices in the game means that we should be approaching this game differently than we do most games; we explicitly have a time when setup speculation be helpful and taking advantage of that helps us.

How much would a hider claim hurt us do you think? Troll thinks that you be objecting to it just because it no be the normal thing to do to start a game? Troll thinks that you should at this point trust Troll's instincts to some degree when it comes to what claims might make sense.

Troll also wonders why you be voting for the janitor given what Troll knows you think of non-reveals.

@Elmo, why wouldn't we be able to give the scum a roleblocker if we had one hider claim? If the role acts in a way that seems like it be town and we have any protective roles (which no be unlikely) then scum have to decide to use both the roleblocker and the kill to take out a player who might be protected and might get killed anyhow (by scum or vig kills) if them do neither. Troll thinks that even an outed hider with a roleblocker in the game has enough things going for them to get by well enough for Troll.

@ekiM, Troll thinks that you be overstating how bad a single hider claim would be for the town but at least you be thinking about this so far as Troll can tell.

@ooba and Zoraster, Troll thinks that the two of you explicitly support hider claims. Troll wonders if you would be willing to give your best arguments for why this be the case.

@those other than Papa Zito who be opposed to the hider claims, Troll wants you to confirm that you've actually thought through what would happen if we went with the hider claim plan. Troll knows that claiming early be different from normal play and there be resistance based solely on that. This group of players should be able to get past that initial resistence and actually consider the merits of a claim. Some of those who oppose the claim seem to have done that; we appear to disagree which Troll can live with even if it be somewhat irritating. For those who haven't Troll would appreciate it if you really did take some time to think. Day Zero in this game no decides who we think is scummy, it decides the game we will play. Troll would like to play the game that gives the town the best chance even if that means going with an unusual first set of moves.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@Amished, by scum manipulating it you mean that you be worried that scum would fake claim and try to get by with the hider claim? If so we probably have tools to protect against that. If them did try then them would have one member out there that Troll be fairly certain would get caught in the long run (or depending on how things go down the short run) and in some ways Troll hopes that them would try that. Troll no expects them too though.

The reason that Troll be looking at the hider claim in particular be that there be wonderful benefits if scum did give us two of them, them no be hugely powerful on their own if we have one and them would still be able largely to act as them would normally. If we get a single hider claim it lets our other power roles make a slightly more informed decision about their actions and we will be trusting them to do the right thing.

Or did you have some other idea in mind about scum manipulation?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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Here be Troll's current count. If Troll has any listed incorrectly Troll invites them to correct Troll.

Hider claim?
Yes - 6 (Plumegranate, mith, Troll, Rhinox, Zoraster, ooba)
No - 7 (ekiM, Amished, PZ, Vas, Hoopla, Spyrex, KMD4390)

Massclaim?
Yes - 1 (Hoopla)
No - 8 (ekiM, Plumegranate, Amished, PZ, Rhinox, Vas, SpyreX, KMD4390)

@Papa Zito, Troll no be trying to challenge your way to play the game. Troll thinks that you might take what Troll has said as such and if that happens then it be likely to undermine your view on Troll's suggestions. Troll be trying to get us set up in a position in which your approach (of simply finding scum) be most likely to lead to a town win. Once Day Zero be over we will be doing the finding scum that you be advocating; if we follow Troll's plan here we will simply be doing it with more information than we would otherwise.

If you have reasons that Troll no be seeing to object the the hider claim then Troll would love to hear there but for now Troll thinks that the hider claim sets up the sort of game that you want to play in a way that gives town the best chance of winning.

@Hoopla, what is it exactly that you object to about the hider claim? Troll sees that you clearly be opposed to it but Troll no be sure what you think it would do to harm town. Clearly you see some advantages to claiming on the whole. Why would a hider claim on it's own be bad for town?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@Hoopla, Troll addressed that in Post 79

@mith, if the scum picked no hiders and try to fake claim one now then we almost certainly have tools to deal with that. Either a vig or a tracker be a fine way to test a hider claim. If there are no hiders then we either have one of those two or the scum gave us two weak doctors and two jailkeeprs. Troll deems that fairly unlikely for a number of reasons. Actually, Troll would be pretty pleased if scum tried to fake claim a hider Day zero all things considered. That almost certainly be a scum that would be caught before too long.

If the mafia choose to fake claim as our only claimed hider Troll be pretty confident that them will be caught at it in time.

@VasudeVa, the assassin would only be able to make one additional kill per night, not two. This has been clarified in the initial posts. Them have two shots of an extra kill.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@Hoopla, a tracker would catch a fake claimed hider be showing that them no had targeted anyone when them claimed them had (or that them claimed to target someone other than the one them claimed.) A vigilante would catch a hider by killing them when them should have been hiding behind some other player.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@Hoopla, that be a question for the mod but Troll thinks that a tracker would get a result on a hider hiding. Let's see, shall we?

Mod, would a tracker track a hider hiding behind some player?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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So now we be looking at:

Hider claim?
Yes - 7 (Plumegranate, mith, Troll, Rhinox, Zoraster, ooba, populartajo)
No - 7 (ekiM, Amished, PZ, Vas, Hoopla, Spyrex, KMD4390)

mith do be somewhat right about timing; we be approaching a point where we need to be making decisions here. Hopefully at this point everyone has been giving thought to what options will potentially do. It be time for DrippingGoofball, Ellibereth, Elmo, Herodotus, My Milked Eek (has him really just posted twice?) and Slicey to get their opinions in. Troll knows that Troll no has been the most active player in the thread (Troll has been sick and busy) but Troll will still make a call for activity now.

@Papa Zito, when you do have time to get on and address what Troll has said Troll would like you to not approach it as Troll taking a position contrary to the one you have taken but rather Troll would like you to actually think about the consequences of a hider claim and make your statements based on the pros and cons of that. Troll no expects you to agree with Troll just because it be Troll (though if you no have thought about it Troll thinks that you should be somewhat inclined towards that) but rather Troll wants people to actually think through the consequences of a hider claim rather than simply rejecting them offhand.

Well, and Troll does want to know why you went for the janitor which seems out of character for you. That one Troll simply wants an answer to.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@DrippingGoofball, what would you think of a hider claim at this point? That be (Troll would argue) the main point of discussion just now. Two hiders be incredibly powerful for the town if we know we have them (though it be somewhat unlikely that we do.) A single hider no be all that powerful and be able to protect itself even if outted. If we have no hiders at all then the hider claim no outs any town power roles and prevents the scum from making hider fake claims later in the game.

Clearly there be more to the claim than that (and Troll be presenting it with Troll's preference in mind) but that be what Troll be most interested in hearing your input about right now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@DrippingGoofball, so as far as Troll can tell from that response you don't see any way in which the hider claim could harm us but you do see a way in which it could help (a small amount.) Your tone would seem to indicate otherwise but Troll would think that would mean you should support it.

@My Milked Eek, you seem to support a mass claim but not a hider claim. What be your reasons for opposing the hider claim?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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Troll no be a hider.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@mith, the rolecop be a day rolecop. Any trackers no should see them as them track night actions. Actually, the janitor be a day action also for what that matters.

If we no want to go with the roleblocker (and Troll can live with that especially as it seems likely that we no will have finished the claim before the day ends) then the janitor and rolccop probably be what Troll would recommend.

Power roles will tend to be outted over the course of the game regardless of what roles we give scum (as they get run up to lynch or need to reveal information to help the town.) The assassin will likely give the scum at least one extra kill and it if them do it will definitely be a power role. The role cop on the other hand starts with fairly slim odds of finding anyone at the start when them would be most helpful and then looses power as roles come out anyhow. If them do succeed then scum will potentially get a chance to kill a power role early but at least them no will gain extra kills of members of the town as them do it. The mafia already have some chance of killing town power roles at night anyhow so it be somewhat hard to estimate the increase in efficiency them would gain.

In any case, Troll no fears the rolecop as much as many seem to. Troll also no has the energy to fight about this one so Troll will simply show what Troll perfers with Troll's vote. Well, and Troll will say that the the assassin and rolecop seems like a particularly poor combination as them do work well together. Having said that, Troll can do something to make that combination less likely to occur.

vote: rolecop

vote: janitor

That should put the janitor at L-1 Troll believes.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@ekiM, with Ellibereth V/LA till after the deadline we no were going to finish the claim before choosing anyhow. It also seems somewhat silly to Troll for you to complain that a choice you put at L-2 last page just got hammered.

In any case, roleblocker no makes sense to pick at this point and assassin/roleblocker be a poor combination to give scum. Jailkeeper was a good choice.

Troll still prefers rolecop to assassin for the reasons that Troll went over as well as what others have said since but as long as we no pick roleblocker at this point Troll can live with where we will end Day 0.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@DrippingGoofball, the timing of this do be most inconvenient and, frankly, irritating. The town be having enough trouble coming to a consensus without people throwing deliberate monkey wrenches in the system like that and we be most close to a deadline. Further, for your reaction hunting you seem to be assuming that there no be any hiders (which Troll no thinks you should have any reason to assume if you be town) and ignores the fact that scum day talk and coordinate reactions to a large degree.

@Rhinox, it still behooves us to make the best choice we can with our information when picking the second role to give scum. If we no have any hiders then janitor no would have been Troll's first choice (Troll's first choice in that case would have been a role blocker and a role cop) but we should still figure out how we want to play this from here on out.

@everyone, The best Troll thinks we can hope for in terms of information for that right now be if we get claims from everyone left on the list other than Ellibereth. If them all show up and none of them claim hider then Troll be fine picking role blocker for our second choice. If any do claim hider or we have multiple people not claim Troll supposes Troll prefers role cop (though perhaps there be some number of non-claims where Troll would still be happy enough with a roleblocker; Troll will think about that.)

Who will be about as we be getting closer to the deadline? Troll should be able to make a final decision up till about 10:00 PM PDT/1:00 AM EDT. That be a while before the deadline but Troll expects to be asleep after that. Who can we count on being about to make sure that votes get moved if we need to have them moved?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@mith, Troll assumes that you mean that hiders no should claim if we give scum a roleblocker. If we make any other choice then hiders should still claim after the decision be made and we carry on as we would have had DrippingGoofball's claim been true. There be some other things that could be said on that topic but Troll will leave them for now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

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@Papa Zito, anything that we need to talk about based on what Troll said earlier can wait till day one starts at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@mith, actually, thinking about it a bit more, even if we do choose a roleblocker any hiders who no were about to claim today should do so when them first arrive after day one has started. Scum know whether or not there's a hider and them have a very limited pool of players it could be at this point. If any of the other who no have claimed by the time the day ends be scum as well it be that much smaller. If we have a roleblocker then an unclaimed hider on their own would get killed within the first couple nights. On the other hand, if them claim then there be some chance that them will be protected by a weak doctor or a jailkeeper if we have one. Claiming no makes it any easier for the scum at this point but it does make it easier for other town power roles to decide what to do.

You posted while Troll was posting this but Troll still disagrees that a hider should stay hidden under any circumstances at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll believes that roleblocker be at L-3 at this point. Unless two of the three unclaimed be hiders Troll be fine with it as our choice.

Troll did take a nap and came to the conclusion that it might make sense to give scum a rolecop and then just plan on a mass claim on Day Three after all the town power roles have had a chance to do two nights work and get some set of results and then coordinate. That would then make the rolecop useless past the first couple days when them no be all that likely to catch a power role on either given day and it would stop the mafia from having any roles that actively interfere with the town power roles. If there were more time Troll might see about arguing for that (as power roles will tend to come out over time anyhow) but for now Troll will just toss it out there as a thought.

@mith, Troll also realized that the reason that Troll thinks that a hider should claim even if we assign a roleblocker and that mith doesn't probably stems from the same difference of opinions about how bad it be to go with a roleblocker if we got just one claimed hider. Troll still thinks it be wise to both for the ability to protect a potential hider and for the locking out of fake claims but if things go well we should have another claim or two before we make the choice anyhow. There be no good reason for either Kmd4390 or My Milked Eek not to be around before deadline.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@mith, yeah, part of the reason Troll likes it be that Troll no be so worried about giving a rolecop to the mafia in the first place and the mass claim day three would just make the rolecop even weaker. As Troll said, it no be something Troll will push now. If we get a hider claim from one of our holdouts in the next couple hours Troll might be more active but it be unlikely that Troll will convince people without that in the time that be left without that extra hider stuff to help.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@populartajo, the rolecop shouldn't help the scum use the janitor any more efficiently offhand unless we be planning on having town lie about their roles if them be about to get lynched (which a janitor makes an even worse idea than normal.) Troll disagrees that the rolecop helps get rid of town power roles as much as people seem to think it does but that be mostly irrelevant at this point. If you favor the roleblocker then you should be voting for it. We no have a lot of time left.

It be at L-3 right now. Troll probably plans to switch Troll's vote there before Troll heads off to Troll's cave because Troll does feel that it be a fair amount better than the assassin even if Troll likes the rolecop a bit more. ekiM has said that him should be about at the deadline and him no be voting. If we had no other actions that should be enough to let the town actually be making a choice here rather than having it be randomized.

*edit* and you voted, so that be good.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@populartajo, the rolecop does help the scum find town power roles to an extent, yes. Troll just thinks that most here be overestimating it's effectiveness at doing so. Power roles tend to come out on their own when them be about to get lynched or when them have to share information (to stop what them be pretty sure is a mislynch or because them have a reason them think someone is scum or whatever.) At the start of the game the roleblocker has a 1/4 chance of hitting a power role and there really no be a great reason that even if them find a power role that the mafia clearly wouldn't have killed that player on their own had them no had a role cop (it sort of gives them a second try if the first one failed, sort of.) That goes up as the game goes on but then as the power roles come out on their own the power to find town power roles be reduced. Especially if we did something like the day three mass claim the rolecop would have (Troll believes) a pretty small impact on the game overall.

Others seem to think that a rolecop would be finding our power roles quickly and leading to their deaths. Troll just thinks that it no would do all that much to change the rate at which power roles got killed.

But as Troll has said, this no be the time to argue that; the chances of enough people being about who would listen, agree and vote that way be minimal. If Troll hadn't been pushing for the hider claim (which Troll felt more strongly about) Troll might have been talking about this more earlier but Troll no felt it was worth fighting two battles that people seemed dug in about at the same time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, or to use expected values (and to simplify quite a bit) Troll sort of thinks that it would take the scum's night kills from having an expected value of around 1/2 of a power role to around 1 power role over the course of the first two nights. Troll could probably work that out more precisely but that should be about the ballpark figure (the 1/2 be low Troll be pretty sure and the 1 be off though Troll no be sure which way, Troll would have to think it through.) With a mass claim on Day Three Troll would probably take that increase in expected power role death over the bother that a roleblocker could cause.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Plumegranate, Troll thinks that saying a role blocker over a role cop will probably lead to fewer early town power role deaths be an exaggeration. Having a role cop does increase the rate at which scum can kill power roles to some degree but probably not as much as most people think that it does. The role blocker probably also increases that rate slightly (not nearly as much) as well as having a better chance of hurting the towns information gathering abilities in the long run and making mass claims less desirable should we want to consider them. Troll also thinks that an early massclaim be likely to be desirable to help close the information gap between town and scum.

But that be neither here nor there. Possibly it makes sense to talk about this after the game but for now the question for Troll be does it make sense to hammer the roleblocker before Troll heads off to Troll's cave to be sure that it gets done.

Troll suspects that the answer to that be yes. We be unlikely to get any others on to claim and even if we did it would now be most difficult for anything other than the roleblocker to be a choice for the second scum PR. While Troll could leave it in ekiM's hands Troll no sees much reason to.

If anyone has a reason for Troll to hold off on voting role blocker do say so in the next 20 minutes or so. Otherwise Troll will do so and move us to Day One.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, a roleblocker it be.

Remember that scum have to pick their roles in the next 24 hours. During that time it be best not to talk about suspicions.

Unvote: Rolecop

Vote: Roleblocker

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Ellibereth, As mith says, that claim did matter. Happily (in Troll's opinion) it be what Troll would have had you do if it were up to Troll. Troll now believes that it be in the towns interest for both of the remaining players to claim hider or non-hider with their next post.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Kmd4390, to be completely clear, claim hider or not hider. Nothing else.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll has been playing around with ideas to try to reduce the power of the janitor. The clarifications that Mr. Flay made in Post 370 were answers to questions Troll had asked via PM. Unfortunately those answers give Troll very little to work with. We could decide who we would lynch and then no lynch and see if any vigilantes wanted to do that killing for us but that be giving away town kills (unless the janitor was the one being killed) no solves the problem. Trying to rush to a decision seems pretty unlikely to catch the scum off guard but does seem somewhat likely to lead to a worse decision on the part of the town. At this point Troll thinks that we simply want to proceed as normal except that if information about a flip ever be vital it would be better to let vigs do the killing if we have them. That no should come up day one so it no will be an issue for now. Troll will just ask people to keep it in mind so long as the janitor ability no has been used and we no have a dead janitor.

It turns out that the hider claim was slightly beneficial to the town. It no be anything close to game breaking (and arguably the fact that us choosing the janitor as a role wasn't ideal) but scum would probably have been happier if we no currently knew that there were no hiders in the game. Troll would guess that at least one member of the scum team offered opposition to the idea (though that description covers much of the game) and at least one member of the scum team was pushing for us to get done with day zero quickly. Troll also suspects that at least one member of the scum team did get "persuaded" to go with the hider claim along the way. That will mostly be useful for later.

If DrippingGoofball be scum who was fake claiming hider Troll suspects that it wasn't particularly done to in an attempt to get us to pick janitor (we were somewhat likely to do that anyhow.) Troll would guess that there be a pretty good chance that a scum DrippingGoofball simply want with the fake claim because she knew that no one else would claim hider and it would let her cause mischief for a while. That would require that she no was aware of the posts Troll had made about town methods for catching a claimed hider but given Troll's experience with DrippingGoofball on a scum team Troll has very little trouble seeing that happening. In that case the withdrawn claim would be because other members of the scum team pointed out the problems with the plan. In any case, Troll has little trouble seeing DrippingGoofball pulling the gambit as town thinking she was helping but Troll sees no reason to think that she no would do it as scum. Troll would have no problems with a DrippingGoofball lynch at this point.

Kmd4390's failure to claim no seems like it be useful as a scum move. His story about skimming be silly but really, nothing be gained for a scum team by him putting off the claim for as long as he did. It be likely that it was caused by lack of attention regardless of his alignment.

Troll no be sure what mith's problem with My Milked Eek is but Troll's would be the overall lack of content (troubling from anyone) coupled with the unexpected discrepency in claim preferences. Troll thinks that a mass claim would have been slightly better for scum than town and that the hider claim has turned out slightly better. Scum would have known that aspect of the hider claim; the mass claim be less clear. In any case, clearly supporting the mass claim and then opposing the hider claim with no reasons be noteworthy and has easy enough to see scum motivations.

Troll has no problem with what ooba be doing. It seems to be the sort of play Troll expects him to make. Troll also slightly thinks that him would be unlikely to support the hider claim as scum; him might have started more neutral but Troll would guess town based on how him handled it. Troll thinks that ooba's play be something Troll can make sense of based on Troll's limited experience with him.

@mith, Troll believes that Papa Zito would have an attitude like the one him displayed during Day Zero as either town or scum. The decision making process we were going through no be a part of the game he values. Troll would like to think that him would be less likely to actively push for the claim idea to be dropped so we could get on with things if him were town but sadly Troll no be convinced that it be the case. Him would certainly be willing to act like that as scum but Troll no thinks it be a scum tell for him. Right now Troll be feeling like he might be a bit more likely than average to be scum but it probably be irritation. We'll see what he has to say about the janitor as that was a choice of his that surprised Troll a fair amount.

@Elmo, Troll's experience with Ellibereth as town be that him puts too many town on his suspicion lists then as well (Pledge of Allegiance, for example) for reasons that no be particularly good (or transparent) and that him does a relatively poor job of re-examining.

@Papa Zito, what be your opinion about games without alignment reveals? (Mind you, Troll believes Troll knows the answer to that but would prefer that you be the one who shares it now.) What made you pick janitor as one of the two roles you would like to give scum?

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@My Milked Eek, at this point Troll will say why not read the thread more carefully and see if you want to try answering that again in a way that demonstrates anything close to an understanding of what be going on.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Papa Zito, really, you think that the hider claim idea was terrible and more scum-motivated than town-motivated? Thanks in large part to Troll pushing it (but no thanks at all to Papa Zito trying to stop the town from being able to use Day 0) town now be explicitly in a better position in terms of knowledge of the setup. What be the scum motivation there and how does it be terrible.

So if you thought that the janitor would give a crippling result restricted to just one day what were your thoughts of the rolecop and assassin. Troll be surprised that your dislike of the janitor from a town position no got mentioned at all though you no seemed to be interested in talking about things and trying to make an informed decision in which the town actually tried to work things out.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Ellibereth, yes, your entire scum list turned out to be the third party team system who were trying to help the town while the mafia tended to end up on your town list. I'm not impressed by your initial reads in general and I think that you're too reluctant to look at evidence and make changes where you should. I also think that that trait doesn't make you any more likely to be scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Papa Zito, saying that the hider claim was rolefishing is ridiculous. A claim that takes advantage of the nature of the setup and the potential roles be somethign that should be considered. In this game the hider claim was one that was good for the town (and Troll believes that it would have been decent for the town no matter what the outcome.

Further, in this game we've now had everyone claim not to be a hider so, yes, Troll be fairly comfortable saying that there no be any hiders in the game. As there would have had to be hiders for Troll to be fishing for them as scum in this particular instance the rolefishing claim goes to preposterous.

How about your thoughts on the rolecop or the assassin individually (which be what Troll was asking)? We be having this conversation now because you no were about when it should have taken place after Troll asked. By the time you got here we were most of the way through the hider claim and Troll no wanted to put any distractions in the thread until that was over.

UNVOTE: DrippingGoofball
VOTE: Papa Zito

Papa Zito no be this dense (especially with the rolefishing garbage) but Troll thinks that him would fake it by trying to hide behind the idea that he doesn't like to think about anything other than getting in there to hunt scum. Him took that further than was reasonable with his calls to end all talk of claims in the middle of the process and the way him be treating it now. The vote for the janitor, a role who's ability he calls crippling to town no be what Troll thinks him would make and him no seems willing to talk about his thoughts on the other roles. Right now him be in an obstructionist mode that be much more likely to be coming from scum than town. Troll would call the overall behavior scummy coming from anyone and Troll knows that a town Papa Zito should be able to put things together better than this.

DrippingGoofball clearly hasn't done anything to look better since Troll voted her; she could be either scum or town fairly easily.

Troll no minds the Hoopla wagon overly but Papa Zito would be a better lynch.

My Milked Eek needs to show up and play or be removed somehow (replacement, vig, lynch probably in that order so far as Troll's preferences go.)

Kmd4390 seems no better a wagon that My Milked Eek would be from what Troll sees of what others dislike. It no be bad but there be better ones. Him should show up and do more though.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Papa Zito, Hoopla be a less ideal lynch than Papa Zito because Papa Zito has a better chance of being scum at this point. Troll would think that would be clear.

If hiders have chosen to lie during the hider claim then them have made a massively bad play. If she ends up being town you can see DrippingGoofball's play for an easy to find comparable example. If you think that there be even a reasonable chance that there be two hiders in the game then opposing the hider claim just be idiotic or a great indication that you be scum. On the other hand, your current attempts to throw doubt on useful information for the town and re-open the door for hider claims that we were trying to claim look much like an attempt to remove the town advantages of a process which you strongly opposed for no good reason.

If you think that the town power roles are "all are fairly weak and crappy anyway" then there be no rational reason for you to blindly oppose claims at the start of the game. Troll no thinks that you would fight them so hard as town. You might not care but if you did have your claimed attitude then wouldn't have any investment one way or another. This idea that claims at the start of the game need to be bad with no evidence that you're even thinking about them be dogmatic to an extent that Troll no finds in line with your town play. Even if you think that one of the interesting and important aspects of the game be boring you no should fight as hard against it as you did. You say that you couldn't wade in and start pressuring people without a vote or you'd disrupt the process of picking the roles to give scum but instead you though it was fine to try to disrupt the process by stopping discussion about the claims without even the scum hunting that could possibly have been justified.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll will be V/LA at Scumstorm for the weekend starting shortly after this post. Troll will be home before the deadline if there be any need for Troll's vote to be sure that we get a lynch today.

@Papa Zito, your attempts to hinder the decision making process day 0 show up where ever you said we should stop thinking things through and get on with playing without providing any reasons at all for why you opposed the ideas being discussed. If you want particular posts Troll will cite your isolation posts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6. Post 8 be particularly bad as it was made when there no was a clear preference against claiming (and in fact in the end there was at least as much support for it as opposition.)

The hider be nice in that it can do the same confirming of innocents whether them be claimed or not. In many ways it be better to have them doing it while claimed as the other town power roles can then act in ways that support the hiding (depending on what the roles be.) The fact that a hider claim no be any sort of death sentence for that role be why Troll was calling for hiders to claim in particular. Of course Papa Zito should know all of that if him had been following the game. The entire stance you be taking on hiders be absurd; you should be a better player than this.

In all, the idea that "the PRs available all are fairly weak and crappy anyway" does not match with this idea that any sort of claiming is inherently bad and must be role fishing. It also doesn't match with Papa Zito thinking that a janitor's power is crippling but not even considering a rolecop.

Papa Zito be trying to excuse what him should know be anti-town play with his overall philosophy. The trouble with that be that Papa Zito no would be so blinded to rational though if him were town. Troll tried to engage him in a discussion of it earlier but him no was about for the next bit. When Plumegranate came back she pointed out the questions that Troll had asked and him brushed them off as Troll chiding Papa Zito. If Papa Zito had some actual reasons why the claiming was bad Troll would have been all for hearing them but him didn't; him just be throwing up a dogmatic opinion in a place where actual thought be called for.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Hoopla, that no actually be a particularly useful measuring stick. It do be somewhat fascinating to see what someone else has attempted to do with the Janitor though.

Troll will have more to say about other things tomorrow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll let people down in this game by flaking. Troll apologizes to everyone but especially Patrick. There no be any excuses (though Troll will go into the reasons a bit) and Troll regrets letting people down.

Having said that, Troll thanks Patrick for the great game and congratulates the scum on a win! Troll probably no would have gotten things right at the end were Troll here (though at the end Troll still found Papa Zito's play so scummy that Troll mostly thought that people were giving Iamausername a free pass for simply showing up and would have wanted to lynch him.) In any case, Troll did like that Fate made the move him did at the end; him no got it quiet right but it was fun to see him pull things into place how him did.

Troll did find Day Zero to be extremely frustrating. It feels like we had the chance to try to make a well reasoned choice about our picks and what to do about claims that would have put is in a measurably better position to start Day One but that the town was absolutely undermined by an attitude that claims are bad and that the whole process was just a waste of time before getting to the real game.

The only reason to say that something is the ideal scum play before it comes up is if it be obvious or if it be false. In the case of how to use the janitor Troll hoped that Troll could do both. Yosarian2 seemed to get away with just stating that the ideal janitor play would be to wipe out Day One's information and the game went along with it. Troll hoped that by planting that idea early the scum might be more inclined to use it this game if we gave the role to them here. Troll no knows if it actually factored into their decision but Troll was pleased with how it eventually got made.

Troll really fails to understand what it is that people fear so much about the rolecop. Roles tend to come out on their own anyhow (this game was a fairly extreme example of that) which will work towards making it's successful uses redundant and it's power diminishes as the game goes along. That so many were simply not willing to consider the role struck Troll as pretty crazy. Though, again, that so many just knee-jerked into claims are bad came as a disappointment to Troll given the caliber of the players Troll thinks that we were dealing with here.

In any case, Day Zero really killed Troll's enthusiasm for the game and then Troll had RL come up. Troll should have requested a replacement when Troll realized that was happening but MS was particularly unappealing and unimportant seeming to Troll at the time.

Regardless, Troll would still be happy to play with anyone here again and wishes best of luck to all in the future. Again, thanks to Patrick for the excellent setup and modding!

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Fate, yeah, Troll did that first (well, not for the AdumbroDues part; him got lynched because people equate weak play with scummy play which is garbage reasoning at the level this game should have been played at.) Troll also said Troll liked watching your play at the end even if you were wrong.

Oh, and Troll didn't mention that Troll finds it hilarious that Troll got attacked for thinking that DrippingGoofball hadn't planned to get a Janitor choice out of her fake claim and that she was largely winging it. That no takes being on a scum team with her to know, just familiarity with her play. To be fair though, it seems she was more aware of what was happening than Troll expected.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Fate, Papa Zito's play was the scummiest Troll has ever seen from him. That includes games in which him was scum. It was like him was going out of his way to undermine anything useful the town could do during Day Zero and then coming up with the most ridiculous reason ever to call Troll scum on Day One.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Fate, though for future reference, Troll almost never has any trouble shrugging off attacks people chose to make on Troll no matter what Troll's alignment be in most games. Unless them pick up some steam (and Papa Zito's wasn't going to there) there be no need to address them based on them being attacks. Him was just going about it in a way that struck Troll as particularly scummy. Or perhaps that just be Troll's take on how Troll plays.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Fate, Papa Zito has some meta that way but him took it much father than would be reasonable for town. Troll felt that him was hiding behind that expected attitude while intentionally undermining the town's chances. Then him turned around and tried to use an actual rational approach to Day Zero as a reason for Troll to be scum and tried to make the ludicrous claim that it made sense for hiders to have not claimed during the hider claim. Troll gives Papa Zito more credit for being intelligent than the play him was using this game. There be a difference between not loving early strategy and actually working against it in a way that hurts the town.

Mind you, Troll clearly has opinions about Papa Zito's play this game that be opinions. Troll also won't say that Troll's play here was stellar (though, dammit, Troll be

right

! *grins*)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh