/Invitational 11: Pick your Poison 5 (Game Over)


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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:04 am

Post by Hoopla »

VOTE: BANKABLE DEADLINES


Okay, so now that's out of the way, lets move on to power roles.

4:16 is a fairly generous ratio to work with for town - I think it's possible we can win this without much reliance on power roles. I'm in favour of a game with as many lynches and lynch information as possible, so I rule out the Janitor, and I rule out the Assassin. Potential extra scum kills are an ugly equation, as it gives us less days (especially when we might already have a vig doing this).

Roleblocker/Role-Cop is clearly the safest option, as scum, even if they find a powerrole, can only disable the effect of that one. It creates ugly wifom scenarios, where scum can block and keep a powerrole alive, which also makes for convenient fakeclaims, but I deem it a safer option than a janitor/assassin. Lets win the game by having as many days as possible, with as much day information as possible. This is also a message to any potential vig; stay quiet early, unless you're very sure.
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Post Post #10 (isolation #1) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:52 am

Post by Hoopla »

Exactly what it says, DGB. I don't see how that remark is cryptic.
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Post Post #14 (isolation #2) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:23 am

Post by Hoopla »

Mod:
Do roleblocks resolve hides?

Tracker is the weakest role here for town by a long way. If I were scum, I would have definitely given town two of those. The only time these come in handy is when there is not many scum left, so 'no result' becomes a valuable result. Trackers just have a such a low strike - they need to target the
one
scum who sends in the kill, to have any chance of catching scum. They can be potential PR confirmers, but their benefits are severely overrated.

Weak Doctors are scary because of such a high ratio of scum to town. They have a good chance of getting confirmed innocents involved in the game. Jailkeepers are a two-way chance of blocking a scumkill, so I'm unsure if scum would have given town one. If they did it would only be one. Vigilantes are swingy, but still kind of handy for scum, because they bring lylo closer if they can avoid the NK's.

So, my picks for scum would have been 2 trackers, 1 vig, 1 jailkeeper/hider.

~~

We all seem to be in agreement that the assassin is a pretty terrible choice for town, but the variable positions on the other three roles just shows how difficult it would be to predict what scum would do. I don't think it is too worthwhile to guess what they've given us, because reliance on these PR's is bad.

KMD:
At this point, I'm starting to become really anti-janitor, because a lot of information (and my game in particular) comes from bandwagon and vote analysis. I fear the possibility of having a vital chunk missing from all the major wagons three days later. I think it's also vitally important to know how many scum we actually have left, especially in the latter half of the game, so we know when we're in lylo. Seriously, not knowing the flip from a lynch is deadly. Scum can cover up any claimed powerrole to fakeclaim into, or wifom the town into thinking future PR claims are scum, because they have covered up their buddy's fakeclaim.

I'm 90% sure I won't support any other combination but role-cop/roleblocker, so...

Vote: Role-Cop
Vote: Roleblocker
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Post Post #16 (isolation #3) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:30 am

Post by Hoopla »

SpyreX wrote: How is that a worse call than letting an unlimited use daycop help parse NK's until dead?
The power roles on offer here are probably not going to win us the game, or even help us too much. They're likelier to wifom us into submission with scum potentially fakeclaiming into the gaps to make us paranoid. It doesn't matter that much if scum finds them slightly quicker with a role-cop, because the benefits of untarnished day information are far higher than slightly better hid PR's.
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Post Post #20 (isolation #4) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:43 am

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Scum have multiple fakeclaims on offer, SpyreX. There is no way we should be relying on or trusting powerroles this much, when a cornered scum is guarenteed to resort to one.
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Post Post #24 (isolation #5) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 12:04 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Random thought, hear me out;

We opt for the roleblocker and assassin, and play with a policy of no power role claims unless it has multiple confirmed innocents or confirmed scum or the assassin is dead. Town power role claims are discouraged, and we lynch on sight, as normally they have a 50% chance of being scum. 4 power roles, 4 scum - and scum's optimum play is to claim a safe power role.

Why this is worth considering:


Most of the roles here aren't really information collecting roles, so much as trying to kill scum or prevent a scum kill. So, depending on what scum have picked for us, we aren't losing too much of our power, as a lot of it is nestled in the prevention of kills to give us more time, or a successful vig shot. Tracker and Weak Doctor suffer a little bit, but can still come out on D3/4/5 if they manage to outlive the Assassin. But the main benefit here is it removes the capacity for the scum fakeclaim and the paranoia and wifom associated with regular power role claims, which I see as a potential problem.

Assassin should only be chosen if we play under a no PR claim before the Assassin is dead policy, as it makes it very difficult for scum to catch a double-kill without PR claims or a role-cop. Yet, we still keep all our day information with no janitor, and PR's still have a good chance of doing damage at night. But the main benefit is losing the inherent wifom/paranoia from PR claims.

Thoughts?
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Post Post #29 (isolation #6) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 12:26 pm

Post by Hoopla »

JANITOR IS A STUPID CHOICE, SERIOUSLY
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Post Post #35 (isolation #7) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 12:39 pm

Post by Hoopla »

mith wrote: The Janitor is more annoying than harmful, and the Rolecop is strictly stronger than the Roleblocker. I think Janitor/Roleblocker is probably best, though my second choice would be Rolecop/Roleblocker (not a lot of synergy between those roles).
Are you serious? You too? I didn't expect that.

By choosing the janitor, you're basically signing away any chance at effective bandwagon analysis, as it is largely dependent on how many scum are in the game, and the D1 lynch wagon is usually a very rich source of information. Even late in the game, knowing whether to be searching for a scumpair or an individual can alter your decisions a lot.

Powerroles won't come anywhere near winning this game for us. Giving them up slightly quicker
is
worth it.
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Post Post #41 (isolation #8) » Wed Jul 28, 2010 1:21 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Plum wrote:Hoopla: I'll give you credit for thinking outside of the box or something, but no. Just no.
Potentially giving the scum two extra kills aimed at some of our most useful players
is really not something I like to contemplate, basically ever.
Where'd you get the most useful bit from? Power roles aren't divvied up to the awesome scumhunters. It's an extra chance at two extra scum kills, but the chances of scum pulling this off is low. Only 25% of our roles are power - this percentage will fluctuate up and down based on who our deaths are, but it will take until at least N3 (likely N4) until it even has a
chance
of something close to being 50%. The point is, scum have low odds of getting a double-kill, because they have to take the ~25% chances early (N1/N2) or risk the assassin dying before using it's quota. It could improve it's odds by living longer, but again, it'll almost certainly always be below a coin flip for scum if no town PR claims.

Scum fakeclaims are a very real possibility in this set-up because of the clause allowing two of each power role. That rule largely removes counterclaims from the system which is something towns often rely on to net scum. Unless we set about hammering PR claims, it is very likely we won't lynch scum D1 or D2, because they'll have safe enough fakeclaims to fall back on should they reach L-1. We need to remove PR claims, because they enable space for scum to hide in and a chance to push out their individual survival another day or two. This concept of 'claiming before you're lynched' favours scum more than town, because exposed town PR's are virtually worthless, good for only chewing up the NK/roleblock, whilst scum potentially gain an extra day or two of living as they have safe claims early on (and maybe later).

By removing town PR claims we do not lose too much of our additional night power to inhibit or catch scum. Investigative roles need to outlive the Assassin (or be lynched after claiming), and all the other roles just function as 'extra day makers', either stopping/saving kills or killing scum. They have little reason to claim, as their results are often ambiguous, which means we don't sacrifice that much by cutting off claiming.

I feel better about the Assassin/RB/No PR claim until Assassin is dead plan. Thanks Rhinox!
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Post Post #58 (isolation #9) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:52 am

Post by Hoopla »

Why did you vote me if you agreed with my plan?
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Post Post #60 (isolation #10) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 1:53 am

Post by Hoopla »

Unvote: Role-Cop
Vote: Assassin
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Post Post #62 (isolation #11) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 2:25 am

Post by Hoopla »

Patrick, I assume the Hider avoids assassin kills, right?
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Post Post #68 (isolation #12) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 3:35 am

Post by Hoopla »

populartajo wrote: I really need to think more about the assasin-roleblocker-no PR claim stuff. Hoopla, can you be clearer about this?
Okay, I'll try and sum up the Roleblocker/Assassin argument as eloquently as I can, though Rhinox seems to be doing a better job than me (who just ends up looking like a raving lunatic).

It is almost certain that the roleblocker must be picked as one of the two roles for scum, as any combination of Role-Cop/Janitor/Assassin is more damaging than a couple of roleblocker combinations. But if we are giving the scum a roleblocker, we must lynch any claimed PR's unless they get confirmed innocent somehow. By unvoting a PR claim at L-1, if it is town, the scum will roleblock it, leaving it alive for wifom purposes and we have to gamble on it's validity when it keeps on living. If it is scum, we have just given it an extra day or two. Realistically, as Rhinox points out, we should be lynching PR's once they have claimed, because they do not have a chance to get more information with a scum roleblocker existing - they'll either bite the NK or roleblock. By not lynching a claimed PR, we only stand to lose because if it is scum, we have just given it the benefit of another day of survival, without gaining anything if it is town.

If town agrees this is the correct play, then it makes the assassin a much more feasible option, because we will never have exposed PR claims going into night, and scum has no Role-Cop to find any themselves. Going into N1, N2 and N3 they will almost certainly have less than a 50% chance of hitting a PR with the assassin, and closer to 25% in the earlier days, and likely less if they NK or we lynch a PR early. The assassin waiting that long to kill is a real risk for scum, because it's individual chances of dying before N4, are probably lower than the chances it gets from shooting early and hoping to get lucky.

You have to remember, even if the Assassin does get a hit on N1/N2, it lowers it's odds for it's next shot because of it having a smaller pool to target. The Hider is also untargetable by this extra kill, which might make the odds I listed earlier even lower for the Assassin if it can only hit 2 or 3 roles. So, it is highly unlikely the Assassin will make two kills with it's two shots, and I think the chances of it making one are still lower than most people expect, because of the potential Hiders limiting the pool, and the Assassin needing not to be lynched/NK'ed any time early. This set-up has a high ratio of Vanilla to PR's, so gaining a second night kill will be challenging for scum if we leave no exposed PR's going into night (something we should always be following anyway).

The main concern seems to be about cutting off information PR's are generating, and that isn't completely true. Initially I was espousing a concept of no claims whatsoever, but Rhinox makes a better proposal, that a player must only claim once they have been decided as the lynch, and purely for the reason they don't take any information they could have to the grave. This gives us more information that no-claims-whatsoever, infact, just as much as we would get if we unvoted that PR claim, and tried to leave it alive. That PR won't get any more information, so in practice, we lose very little information over all.

And because we lose little overall, the benefits are weighted in not giving up the Role-Cop or Janitor, which are far more damaging than this plan I have shown you.
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Post Post #85 (isolation #13) » Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:50 am

Post by Hoopla »

Plum wrote:Note that after a PR claims, usually only the PR is killed that Night
We lynch it. When 50% of PR claims from L-1 positions are scum, I like them odds. PR claims, we get it's info, we get rid of the body. Besides, giving scum the roleblocker means they have no incentive to kill off claimed PR's (if we don't go the assassin route).
Plum wrote:In any case, the extra kill the scumteam gains from an Assassin with a good target (for whatever reason - as mith showed, there will be times when a no-PR claim is stupid but with an Assassin chosen anyway, viable alternative methods don't present themselves) is going straight onto the most useful Townie they can think of. Probably someone
not
in the lynch pool at all.
We're not doing 'No PR claims' - we're doing PR claims, but killing it after. How often are we ever going to actually have a confirmed town PR in this game?
Plum wrote:In any case, the extra kill the scumteam gains from an Assassin with a good target...
Plum wrote:...but an Assassin can take away our extra mislynches
:roll: :roll: :roll:

Seriously, the odds are very low of scum getting an extra kill, let alone two from this role. As long as we leave no claimed PR's exposed at night, everything is just a-okay.
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Post Post #98 (isolation #14) » Fri Jul 30, 2010 10:35 pm

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mith wrote:Hoopla, the wording you are using on occasion when discussing your plan is really bugging me - I know what you're trying to say, but its making me feel like you are more concerned with lynching power roles than with preventing successful fake claims or extra scum kills.
I hope my wording hasn't been too aggressive, because upon a reread I feel like I've been a bit bullying and condescending. Sorry everyone.

Mith, the threat of lynching claimed power roles is exactly what prevents scum from benefitting from fakeclaims. You cited examples of vigilantes/trackers with scum kills/accurate investigations coming out and claiming, but this is the only facet we sacrifice. Besides, these roles can still stay quiet and sit on their information until the assassin is gone, it's likely out of shots or it's too deep in the game to be able to use shots.

By imposing a threat of lynching town PR's, it means they must stay quiet and do their job that way. But also eliminates scum fakeclaims which is a necessary precaution when you consider the ratio of scum to town PR's.
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Post Post #146 (isolation #15) » Sun Aug 01, 2010 5:58 pm

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I'm more in favour of massclaim than a Hider claim, even if it means letting go of the Roleblocker/Assassin combination.

The most beneficial route for scum depends on the roles they've given us, but no scum fakeclaiming doesn't really seem like a possible play if we have more than one of the Hider, Vigilante or Weak Doctor. Four confirmed town players essentially forces the scumkill to those players the first four nights in a row, and any one of those three roles can be damaging if left alive until N2.

I feel like the only real option scum has in a massclaim is one of them claiming a power role, rather than 0 or 2. This means we have to give them a Role-Cop/Janitor combination, and as much as I hate the Janitor, it might be a play worth considering. The knowledge of the exact amount of powerroles town has is a very exploitable function - it serves almost as a neighbourhood. We separate the town into two pools, and we know how many scum is in each pool. But of course, unless scum don't fakeclaim at all, they can never kill off
all
the powerroles without confirming their fakeclaimer(s) as scum. And because we will almost never lynch a powerrole in the first 2/3 days, the janitor is only really making a difference in covering up the alignment of a VT or goon, which isn't so bad, even if it hurts bandwagon analysis. Although, I feel as if the scum cannot waste the Janitor on D1 anyway, as their best possible use of the Janitor is when we have to lynch a powerrole later in the game, and we might have caught it by then.

Unvote RB
Unvote Assassin


I don't know if we should follow this path yet or not, but it is attractive enough to warrant an unvote of PR's and a good think.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #16) » Sun Aug 01, 2010 6:40 pm

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VasudeVa - The Janitor is only works on lynches, and if there are five claims, we probably shouldn't be lynching power roles in the first 3/4 days, unless we can be absolutely sure they are a liar. Scum having no ability to mess with PR's at night means they have to start killing PR's which in turn will narrow down or confirm who the fakeclaimer(s) is. Scum sacrifice their fakeclaimer(s) if they kill all the PR's, which might not be a good move for them if we lynch one or two scum in the first three days. But by not killing PR's, we get new information each day for longer in the game. It feels like a good idea to me.
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Post Post #154 (isolation #17) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:56 am

Post by Hoopla »

mith wrote: [Insert slight annoyance at Hoopla here, for discussing the scum's best plan; though I suppose it may have been obvious anyway, so my attempt at keeping them in the dark may have been pointless.]
If I could have figured it out, it is definitely obvious. Besides, you keeping us in the dark only helps if you are town too. I think knowing scum's best plan is a necessary aspect for towns to weigh up when making big decisions, even if publically outing that information slightly reduces it's effectiveness. Although, there aren't many fools in this game, so that risk is smaller.
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Post Post #156 (isolation #18) » Mon Aug 02, 2010 5:19 am

Post by Hoopla »

mith wrote:Huh.

I said "keeping them [the scum] in the dark", you said "keeping
us
in the dark". Can we lynch Hoopla yet?
Us as in the town.

That sentence doesn't make sense if I meant 'us as in scum', because it clashes with the next part of the sentence you cut out - 'only helps if you are town too'. The reason I said it that way, was because you are the one player holding the information and it only helps town if you are town too. Sorry for the mix-up, although I don't think it was that hard to see that was my message.
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Post Post #199 (isolation #19) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:51 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Vote No.

I seriously doubt scum would have given us two hiders. I kind of want to get on with it too. I'll support a massclaim or the RB/Assassin combination.
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Post Post #223 (isolation #20) » Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:22 am

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Zorblag wrote: @Hoopla, what is it exactly that you object to about the hider claim? Troll sees that you clearly be opposed to it but Troll no be sure what you think it would do to harm town. Clearly you see some advantages to claiming on the whole. Why would a hider claim on it's own be bad for town?
I feel like the chances of scum giving us a Hider seems slim, giving us two is even more slim. There is seriously almost no way a scumteam would have given town two Hiders.

I'm worried about the very real possibility of there being no Hiders, and scum knowing this, deciding to claim it. Can you link me to someone's post that addresses this issue? Because I don't think this is a very good scenario for town. How are we supposed to verify a Hider claim?
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Post Post #226 (isolation #21) » Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:37 am

Post by Hoopla »

Hmmm. I suppose a massclaim would have to happen at some stage later in the game, which will tell us automatically how many scum are riding fakeclaims. I don't know how a vig or tracker would catch a hider, but I'll play along, Zorblag.
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Post Post #230 (isolation #22) » Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:58 am

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Zorblag wrote:@Hoopla, a tracker would catch a fake claimed hider be showing that them no had targeted anyone when them claimed them had (or that them claimed to target someone other than the one them claimed.) A vigilante would catch a hider by killing them when them should have been hiding behind some other player.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh
Good point on the vig. Doesn't hiding resolve before tracking though. So presumably a tracker trying to track a Hider wouldn't get a result? Or a 'went nowhere' result?
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Post Post #251 (isolation #23) » Mon Aug 09, 2010 7:01 am

Post by Hoopla »

I am not a Hider, either.
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Post Post #287 (isolation #24) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 6:52 am

Post by Hoopla »

lol.

and now we have locked in janitor. genius.
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Post Post #290 (isolation #25) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 7:05 am

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It was pretty obvious you were faking.
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Post Post #292 (isolation #26) » Tue Aug 10, 2010 7:08 am

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Because you wouldn't have got your precious information from your gambit.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #27) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:10 am

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*twiddles thumbs*
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Post Post #358 (isolation #28) » Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:58 am

Post by Hoopla »

ARGGHHHH
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Post Post #364 (isolation #29) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 2:27 am

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Yeah, it's kind of silly when you consider you need 12 players to quicklynch someone, and those 12 need to somehow all agree that this particular person is very likely to be scum before everyone else gets in. What sort of things have you been looking for so far, Hero? Do you have any significant reads either way?
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Post Post #369 (isolation #30) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 3:46 am

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Papa Zito wrote:I like Herod's plan. Tho I don't think we have 12 people sitting here silently agreeing. Or how we'd figure out if they are.
Or, you know - the likely chance the janitor is one of those 12 people or others silently lurking...

And that's if you want to lynch without claiming...
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Post Post #378 (isolation #31) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 4:22 am

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mith wrote:(Discussion on both of these can wait until day 1 is underway, but: Hoopla has been consistently anti-Janitor, yet while she claims to have thought DGB was obviously fake-claiming she remained silent while the Janitor was locked in. DrippingGoofball seems awfully certain that we have no actual Hiders, given that four players haven't claimed.)
Firstly, that is a good observation, mith! I'll do my best to satisfy your concerns. Here I go;

I plead temporary insanity.

I was dazzled by DGB's hider claim and didn't know how to respond. You must acknowledge that the odds of a hider being in the game and of all people, it landing on DGB seems slimmer than DGB having a go like she knows how.

Secondly, I am going to vote ooba, because he seems like a shady character.

Vote: ooba
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Post Post #399 (isolation #32) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 9:41 am

Post by Hoopla »

4 u elmo
mith wrote:Hoopla: Now that you've had time to get over being dazzled, what do you think of DGB's action (and the response to it)?
I'm still relatively dazzled to be honest. I am still learning how to read DGB, because I failed my education the first time.
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Post Post #405 (isolation #33) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 10:37 am

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Rhinox wrote:If you don't know how to read DGB, then how did you know she was faking her claim?
DGB does bizarre things as town and scum. It was significantly more likely that she faking than the town firstly having a Hider, then that role miraculously landing on DGB of all people. That would have been less than a 5% chance, and I don't think anyone who has played a game with her would deny the odds of her claiming Hider when she was not a Hider was lower than that.

I can't read DGB's motivations behind
why
she does the things she does other than 'LOL GAMBIT'. Can you? Because I could see scum and town DGB pulling that stunt.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #34) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 10:24 pm

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mith, I think you are falling victim to applying conventional scumtells to an unconventional player. You've identified the gambit as having more benefits for scum than town and you are twisting what you have seen to assume this was a deliberate ploy to reap those benefits as scum. In this post, I'll try to show you why that is wrong.

Initially, the game was booming with theoretical powerrole talk, with many players heavily invested in determining what the best long-term strategy was. It was obvious to any observer that a small faction emerged espousing the
'fuck it, lets just scumhunt'
point of view, which at it's core is passionately town, cleverly anti-town or just lazy. This group slowly ballooned as the game grew, swallowing more players who also wanted to get on with it, indifferent to what was decided on - just as long as we had a plan. I admit, towards the end, I was a little flustered too and just wanted to pick something - there were merits to a lot of plans. I place DGB squarely at the forefront of this movement, though. Her influence was minimal due to her absence, but she was clearly not up-to-date with the game, interested in the powerrole talk and I'd suggest not aware of what the consequences were for whatever number of hiders was discovered.

I struggle to believe DGB would have known players would have swapped their votes to a Janitor based on her claim alone - I personally did not see that coming, and I think I was more invested in the game at the time than her. But this is precisely the thing that DGB is getting grilled for - the result. Even though it is unlikely she knew this result would transpire. At best, the scum motivation for her is; doing something risky than would accrue small town points and/or causing a bit of chaos and passing it off as a scumhunting attempt. And that
potential
motivation is not enough of a crime for me to suspect her, even if it generated disasterous results.

I find it strange you also acknowledge that DGB is difficult to read, but want me to unearth her motivations off of ONE post. Granted, this post was a significant event in the game, and ordinarily it would be very illuminating on someone else's alignment, but this has a much more sedated importance purely because it is something expected from her. I choose to take an ambivalent perspective on this, because the motivations for this as scum is roughly on par with what the motivations were for town. The burden of proof is on you to tell me
why
this is pro-town or pro-scum move, without appealing to the consequences of what happened, unless you can also prove she could have expected this result. If you cannot do this, or unearth separate motivations independent of the result, then I am quite rightly justified in choosing an ambivalent stance to this event, because your argument boils down to 'she could quite easily do this as scum, so I think she is scum' - and that won't fly with me.
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Post Post #422 (isolation #35) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 10:33 pm

Post by Hoopla »

A question for DGB: Am I town?
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Post Post #423 (isolation #36) » Thu Aug 12, 2010 10:43 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Unvote


My vote on ooba is no longer warranted, because I agree with his general methods of coming to his reads. With such a mixed bag of opinions and ideas on what the most powerful roles or best combinations are, it's more difficult to discover scum motivation, because it isn't clear what the town motivation was or should have been. During regular games, it is easier to know and understand what town/scum motivations are, because we have a more rigid definition of pro-town and pro-scum, but here I am less sure. I agree to an extent that those proposing original ideas or maintaining/encouraging conversation were likelier to be town, though.
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Post Post #425 (isolation #37) » Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:18 am

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Amished wrote:@Hoopla: What? DGB obviously knew that we were claiming hider/not hider. With knowing that; how could she (I'm just gonna call dgb a she) NOT know why we're claiming? That's the biggest dance around the issue that I think I've ever seen.
She knew we were claiming - did she know people would vote for the janitor if she claimed hider?
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Post Post #454 (isolation #38) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 5:17 am

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ekiM wrote: DGB, Hoopla. What response were you expecting if DBG were believed by most? No vote switching? We were pretty damn close to deadline, what did you think was going to happen, precisely?
To be honest, I wasn't very invested at the time and wasn't fully aware of what the consequences were for each specific outcome of a Hider claim. I thought 'not roleblocker' was the only option that would have happened. Why didn't we lock in Assassin if we had a Hider, because couldn't she only jump three possible PR's now?
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Post Post #455 (isolation #39) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 5:17 am

Post by Hoopla »

Oh wait, how am I missing out on the KMD wagon?

Duh.

Vote: KMD
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Post Post #461 (isolation #40) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 10:43 am

Post by Hoopla »

Be nice, ekiM.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #41) » Sun Aug 15, 2010 8:04 pm

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mith wrote: Hoopla: I'm reasonably confident you can work out why the Janitor got hammered by looking through the posts between DGB's claim and retraction (Hint: What do Janitor/Assassin and Janitor/Rolecop have in common?). I also find it very hard to believe that you saw DGB's claim and thought it was clearly fake, but didn't notice that Janitor was climbing in the vote count. I think you're lying scum and I want to lynch you. How does that make you feel?
Good point about the janitor - I suppose I don't have any defense for that really, other than I didn't think about the consequences. How do I feel? It makes me feel wary, because it seems like the sort of tell for you that is strong enough to direct a lot of your attention to me today. And I want to stop that, because it will be a mutual waste of time if you're town, but I don't know how to get out of that hole.
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Post Post #474 (isolation #42) » Mon Aug 16, 2010 8:15 am

Post by Hoopla »

You don't trust politicians, Elmo? :P
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Post Post #484 (isolation #43) » Mon Aug 16, 2010 10:59 pm

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mith wrote: Hoopla: Why do you find Kmd suspicious? Who else do you find suspicious, and why? You've made two votes with negligible reasoning to back them (and the reasoning you gave when unvoting ooba doesn't really explain why you found him vote-worthy in the first place). I'd like to figure out which scumbuddy you're distancing from before we lynch you.
I'm not not sure KMD is scum -
if that makes sense
. Planning out my attack on him is more difficult than I envisaged, but I'll make an attempt now. On the face of it, KMD's one-liners and backseat commentary are vaguely reminiscint of some of his previous scum games, although his town game isn't rich with active powerhunting. Drawing on this, I'd like to defend this wagon under '
The Castle
' justification of it being the '
vibe
' - it has a real '
vibe
' about it. More to the point, I'm worried my inability to successfully weed out specific pieces of 'evidence' is generating votes on me. Votes that seem very safe - very safe indeed. To some, that line will be extra reason to vote for me.

Neutralize me on Day 1 might be necessary, or it might not, but I'm so deep in this hole. The difficult thing about this hole is even if I climb out there are still plenty of ways for me to be pushed back in. Janitor-based reasons are the obvious ones, but I don't think my crimes have been too significant to lynch on. I'll like it if someone can give me an umbrella to stop the dirt trickling down on my face, because I've just showered. Do we even need to do this? This is getting silly now, but I'm getting distracted and finding it hard to focus. By the way, I don't want to make excuses but English isn't my first language, I can't find my glasses and I'm pregnant, so it's difficult to get this done. Self discipline has never been my strong point, I guess, but I can assure you I am trying my best to figure out this game. Hammering home my weaknesses and so-called scummy behaviour isn't necessary because I can do it myself.
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Post Post #485 (isolation #44) » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:25 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Actually, ignore that post. I'm still scrambled.
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Post Post #487 (isolation #45) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 1:04 am

Post by Hoopla »

Not to my knowledge...

Why?
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Post Post #496 (isolation #46) » Tue Aug 17, 2010 9:48 am

Post by Hoopla »

mith wrote:Hoopla: Would you answer the second question asked in my previous post? (And the first, if I am to ignore the answer you gave.)
Hmm, I am suspicious of Herodotus, Ellibereth, KMD and zoraster. That is my guess at the scumteam, so far. I'll keep you updated, I suppose.
mith wrote:Also, girl or boy?
23/f/aus, and u?
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Post Post #506 (isolation #47) » Wed Aug 18, 2010 4:46 am

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mith wrote:Hoopla: I meant the baby, silly. I think mith is a good name for a boy.
I was talking about this exact thing on scumchat a couple of weeks ago with Korts and Primate - we were trying to figure out the best names for a baby using someone's screenname. I liked Shanba, Sotty, Vi and Ythill as names. I think Spyrex could be good for a boy.
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Post Post #507 (isolation #48) » Wed Aug 18, 2010 4:47 am

Post by Hoopla »

by the way,
unvote, vote: herodotus
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Post Post #588 (isolation #49) » Fri Aug 20, 2010 2:27 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I've been prodded, I guess...

Um, so is the VasudeVa wagon growing because I didn't vote for it? Is this true or false? Mith, help me.
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Post Post #639 (isolation #50) » Sun Aug 22, 2010 4:52 am

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Ellibereth wrote:HOOPS
In the past did you lurk more as town or scum.
You've played with me as both alignments - I think you can answer that question. I don't want to claim any town credit for my play, because I am embarassed with it so far. I'm trying to diagnose why it is happening this way, because in the last 6 months, I've been really happy with how I have been playing. I want to try and rectify this quicksmart, because I know a deadline is looming. Give me tonight.
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Post Post #658 (isolation #51) » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:45 pm

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Elmo wrote:I actually like a Hoopla lynch quite a lot after taking a look elsewhere.
That doesn't mean anything. It just means I don't like you guys as much. :P
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Post Post #660 (isolation #52) » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:04 pm

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Seraphim wrote:Alright, this constant joking around in lieu of actual content from Hoopla is starting to get on my nerves.
Sounds like you're gearing up to jump on my wagon. Don't be shy. :wink:
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Post Post #729 (isolation #53) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:19 am

Post by Hoopla »

I am at L-1 (finally).

Claim:
Vanilla Townie

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Hoopla




To some this might seem like a strange move, or possibly even an anti-town/suboptimal move. Before you jump to such hasty conclusions, I will explain my behaviour as best I can, and you can make that decision with the knowledge of what I was trying to do.

Initially, I entered this game full of zest, eager to play with some of mafia's best minds - I haven't played with a bunch of you, but I was thrilled to see so many on my 'like' list pop up. I think my interest in the game was obvious to begin with, as I devoted much of my time to crafting plans and formulating what the best strategy for the town would be. This is usually my niche - where I thrive most. A couple of you who I've played with often will probably be able to vouch for that sentiment. Anyway, the game slowly chugged along, and whilst still fun, was starting to become a little bit more of a chore to post and keep up with the latest ideas. I also will point out, I took on another couple of games at this point (by way of invitation), which was a pretty bad idea in hindsight. I've always been at my best when I'm in one (or at most) two games. Coupling this with additional site commitments - namely that of modding a fast-paced game, I quickly slipped behind the curve activity-wise.

At this point, we were nearing towards the end of the nomination phase, where I was still largely in catch-up mode, and noticed DGB's fake Hider claim. It was strange to me - and I still maintain it felt obvious and likely that she was faking, even though I had little investment in the game. For some reason, I just lurked and watched through that passage until the moment she unclaimed. I chimed in with my comments by way of impulse, not thinking how it incriminated me by proving I was lurking through that passage, and I did not know what to do. It felt like a pretty solid point on me, for one moment of recklessness, which could have been avoided by being active within the game.

I defended myself poorly throughout that passage of play and collected a few votes for cryptic answers. I was still behind, and had lost much interest in the game, but I thought it would be even more frowned upon if I tried to wriggle out of that line of attack by claiming I had no idea what was happening. I was far too invested in the argument and game again, despite missing a decent chunk. I thought I'd try to play the wifom game, and wriggle out of it by being lazy and irrational - for some reason, I maintained the belief that this was my meta, not as town, but definitely not as scum. Though, it's come to my attention, that people think I try harder as town - when I know I've played games with a couple of you (Elli, DGB, tajo are a few), where I was more well-known for an active, solid scumgame, rather than a good towngame. So, this was a strange backfiring of sorts which exacerbated my scenario.

It was at this stage (with about 5-6 votes to my name) that I needed to cut my losses. I'm sure I had the capability to get back in the game, and maybe even stem the tide against my wagon, but I thought of another idea. I thought I'd try and take today's lynch in the hope the janitor uses it's action on me. If it does, my self-hammer and claim of vanilla should be enough justification to prove I was town, as this certainly isn't a result scum could desire. Before you come spitting back at me 'WIFOM WIFOM' - think it through. What do I actually gain from being scum in this situation, deliberately taking the lynch? Deliberately claiming vanilla, and self-hammering myself? Surely, I could quite easily faekclaim a powerrole to remove this wagon and maybe last a day or two. Is getting lynched D1 to hide the amount of scum in the game worth it? I hope nobody does this is a scum gambit if the janitor does use it's action on me, because it is just not worth it as scum.

For those wondering, I left a breadcrumb at 6 votes to signal my intention;
Hoopla wrote:
I'm
not not sure KMD is scum -
if that makes sense
.
Planning
out my attack on him is more difficult than I envisaged, but I'll make an attempt now.
On
the face of it, KMD's one-liners and backseat commentary are vaguely reminiscint of some of his previous scum games, although his town game isn't rich with active powerhunting.
Drawing
on this, I'd like to defend this wagon under '
The Castle
' justification of it being the '
vibe
' - it has a real '
vibe
' about it. More to the point, I'm worried my inability to successfully weed out specific pieces of 'evidence' is generating votes on me.
Votes
that seem very safe - very safe indeed.
To
some, that line will be extra reason to vote for me.

Neutralize
me on Day 1 might be necessary, or it might not, but I'm so deep in this hole.
The
difficult thing about this hole is even if I climb out there are still plenty of ways for me to be pushed back in.
Janitor
-based reasons are the obvious ones, but I don't think my crimes have been too significant to lynch on.
I'll
like it if someone can give me an umbrella to stop the dirt trickling down on my face, because I've just showered.
Do
we even need to do this?
This
is getting silly now, but I'm getting distracted and finding it hard to focus.
By
the way, I don't want to make excuses but English isn't my first language, I can't find my glasses and I'm pregnant, so it's difficult to get this done.
Self
discipline has never been my strong point, I guess, but I can assure you I am trying my best to figure out this game.
Hammering
home my weaknesses and so-called scummy behaviour isn't necessary because I can do it myself.
If the janitor does use it's action today, I'll be very happy and see my play as not a total failure. The thing is though, in 3:9 games, towns only have a 20% chance of lynching scum on D1, which is a touch lower than random. This game has a lower ratio of scum to town, which makes me feel like it was a very high chance of lynching a townie anyway. My death surely isn't such a big loss - particularly as I don't out our powerroles yet either. I figure I can make it up even more if I give you some analysis of my bandwagon, and opinions on their votes so far. It is the least I can do after ignoring many requests to do so earlier in the game. Here I go;

Early proponents of my bandwagon are mith and Papa Zito, though their suspicion goes back to the nomination phase. PZ is a bit more forward with his, while I suspect mith only has me lingering in the corner of his eye. After giving some poor answers to why I thought DGB was fakeclaiming, mith and PZ are probably justified in attacking me. I feel their votes are genuine - mith in particular with how aggressively he has been pushing me all game. That sort of onslaught is difficult to maintain honestly throughout the day, as me flipping town would squarely bring him into the limelight. Though, his experience certainly makes the possibility of his attacks being fabricated, my overwhelming instinct is that he genuinely believes I am scum.

Amished's early vote on me largely misrepresented how I knew DGB was fakeclaiming - I won't pedal the semantics here, but I thought his entry onto my early wagon was the weakest of all the votes, and wouldn't be a bad place to start looking tomorrow. It's at this point KMD starts developing the lead, quite significantly, which such supporters like Elli, Herodotus and VasudeVa who don't look anywhere near town enough for me to justify KMD's early wagon was 'good'. I put my vote on it anyway, and things start to swing towards me. Ekim jumps on without a reason, but it was in a close enough timeframe to my vote-hop, to make it understood this was in fact the reason. I have no qualms with Ekim's vote, particularly as he tries to understand my motives later in the game with meta analysis. He genuinely looks like he is trying to figure out my alignment, and I'll be surprised if he is scum. VasudeVa on the other hand, is just jumping from ship to ship and though this would normally be reason to suspect him, I feel like this is more of a town tell for him after seeing him recently in a couple of games. I wouldn't say he's much more conservative as scum, but such liberal vote-hopping strongly signifies reckless townie to me.

Elmo is the sixth vote on my wagon, and it's at this point I breadcrumb my intention to take the lynch and collect votes. Elmo's justification is flimsy and seemingly gut based - 'sounds too much like a politician', is an unusual reason to join a wagon. I've only seen small passages of Elmo's play, but I don't think he is conventional (I am basing this largely off the game I modded, with him in it as a townie). He sort of had a whimsical vibe about him, I actually kind of like it, it's a special aura. But I don't know if this matches up as much as I've previously seen. This is a strange analysis of Elmo's meta, and likely not useful to anyone, but I don't think his vote is too much out of character. The fact he tries to work me out later in the game is a good sign for him.

Plum's vote on me comes next and feels weak, but she knows it's weak, so she overjustifies and appears forceful in my eyes. Compared to my other voters, she is rather suspicious in my eyes. As if she is making sure she lists enough of my tells to preemptively thwart any challengers to her votes. To be honest, what she did describe of my play didn't describe any new insight, and it looks like she isn't trying to discover my alignment at all - rather, she is ensuring she gets on safely without suspicion. She doesn't ask me questions or reference her previous experiences with me. She is suspicious.

I'm slightly suspicious of SpyreX's vote too. He uses a weak justifcation like 'I'm avoiding questions', well after this had been an established fact. This was not a new thing I was doing - I'd been called on this before much earlier in the game. It looks to me as if SpyreX is searching for something to use to jump on my wagon at that particular time. Especially worrying when you consider he acknowledges he has other higher suspects, which seems to serve an out, as if he is slightly less responsible for a townie death, because it wasn't his first choice. Honestly, I think it was a little early for compromises, but I know Spy is like me, in the sense he likes to get things done nice and quick. Still, slightly suspicious.

It's at this point I have 8 votes and worth noting a couple of the ones avoiding my wagon. Herodotus, zoraster, Zorblag, DGB. These are the names that stand out, because they were relatively active around that period, and I am most suspicious of Hero and DGB. DGB in particular, because she frequently comments earlier in the day about my wagon slowing down is a sign of it being on a townie - then conviently flips later in the day to me being 'scum giving up'. You can't have it both ways. I hate to use this justification, but if it were anyone else, this would be scummy as hell - DGB is prone to moments of rapid changes of heart, but this one just feels unnatural and opportunistic (there, how about that for an opinion on DGB?). Hero avoiding me seems odd, because he has picked up a couple of my posts and commented on them as being flawed or scummy in some sense. It just looks like he is trying to avoid the major wagons, as a way to keep blood off his hands. I don't normally indulge my gut feelings, but he is scummy as hell. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the zor's were scum, but I certainly can't pinpoint anything specific in that direction - they are worth mentioning because of their activity and avoidance of my wagon, though.

My wagon falls away to 5 votes, and it's Elmo, Rhinox, DGB who are the ones to push me back into the lead for game progression as we compromise and try to get closer to the deadline. If zoraster is town, then these players deserve town credit for being the compromisers. It's easy as scum to sit back and let the townies put themselves in the hot back-end positions of wagons that always get scrutinized, when the competing wagons are town. It's when they've got something to lose (say zoraster being scum), do they need to worry about pushing a townie ahead - in which case, though late pushers of my bandwagon are quite suspicious. It feels like the competition is town though - the way I've been pushed and then lost votes hasn't been ruthless in any way that my play deserved. This makes me feel like scum don't have anyone in the firing line they need to indirectly protect by pushing me. Yeah, zoraster and probably even VasudeVa are town.

Final reads:

Town:

mith
ekiM
Elmo
ooba
Papa Zito
VasudeVa
zoraster

Scum:

Plumegranate
Amished
DGB
Herodotus
Ellibereth
SpyreX

Somewhere in the middle:

KMD
My Milked Eek
Tajo
Rhinox
Seraphim
Zorblag


I'll be here online until the mod closes the thread, so anyone with questions, I'll do my best to answer quickly. I'm hopeful this isn't seen as a bad play, and I've done my best to give you as much information as I can from my lynch regardless of what happens with the janitor. Good luck everyone and good luck town - I'd like to say it's been fun, but it's been mostly stressful.
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Post Post #731 (isolation #54) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:24 am

Post by Hoopla »

Seraphim wrote:hmmm. Well, that's interesting. If you wanted to draw the janitor, it's a little too late for that now as the janitor has the power to change whether or not he's using it right up to the lynch. I suppose we'll see what happens though.
The janitors decision or non-decision, as it were, has been locked in with my self-hammer. So, lets just hope they chose to use it.
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Post Post #736 (isolation #55) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:29 am

Post by Hoopla »

I'm hopeful that if I've got the janitor to waste their action, it'll make bandwagon analysis completely trustable for the rest of the game, which will be a massive benefit for the town, which will definitely offset the 10-20% chance of lynching scum Day 1 we could have taken instead of lynching me.
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Post Post #738 (isolation #56) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:36 am

Post by Hoopla »

I think it was definitely worthwhile, if it works - which I feel like it has a 60-70% of doing. The loss of the Day 1 lynch which COULD have been on scum (but probably a different townie) is mostly incosequential, because you should have a decent amount of information to work with tomorrow and the next day. And that is almost always what the Day 1 lynch is for - especially in a large game.
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Post Post #739 (isolation #57) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:37 am

Post by Hoopla »

I'm not pregnant, by the way.
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Post Post #742 (isolation #58) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:41 am

Post by Hoopla »

Seraphim wrote:My only worry is that you jumped the gun and didn't give scum enough time to use the ability on you. You could have pushed deadline a little bit closer.
Maybe - but I was worried that someone else would have hammered. This close to deadline though, scum would have already decided if they were going to use it, one way or another. There's no way they'd be in limbo. They must have made an active decision.
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Post Post #746 (isolation #59) » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:19 am

Post by Hoopla »

AT LEAST IT WAS BETTER THAN DGB'S GAMBIT
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Post Post #2172 (isolation #60) » Wed Oct 27, 2010 2:05 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I fazed in and out of the game during the middle bit, avidly watching it again at the end. How did Plum become confirmed town? I think I missed that bit. Spy, I think you were obviously scum this game, but you have a canny knack of talking your way out of lynches - it's quite endearing.

The scumteam played well. I think their PR choices were unorthodox, but it worked in the end with trackers getting false results and creative no-kill gambits. I'd have liked to be scum this game - daytalk, power role planning - it would have been really exciting from a scum perspective.

I feel sorry for mith too. He tried very hard and didn't deserve to be mislynched. Shame on you, Fate.
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