MINI 994: ELLILAND (OVER!)

[Thor665]

Unvote: No Lynch

Knock thyself out.

[Fate]

DONT YOU DARE NO LYNCH WHILE I AM REREADING AND PLAYING FOR REAL

YO SPY HERE'S A HINT: YOU WON'T DIE FROM COPPIN ME IM TOWN.

AND IF YOU DO DIE THE ONLY ONE THAT COULD'VE KILLED YOU WAS ECTO.

AND IM DOWN WITH A FATE LYNCH-> ECTO LYNCH FOR THE WIN IF SUCH IS THE CASE.

BOTTOM LINE: YOU'LL LIVE TO SEE THE SUNSHINE TOMORROW UNLESS ECTO-SCUM JUST GIVES UP OR THOR IS A ROLEBLOCKER AND THIS IS HIS CHANCE TO SHINE??

[Ectomancer]

Hmm. Nice but, why exactly would Ecto-scum

not

kill last night? Dogbot was the easy townie kill as my protection would "supposedly if I were scum" be on Spyrex and so I would be clear to kill the cleared townie. Does that makes sense, or does it make or sense that town Bodyguard Ectomancer, realizing that scum would assume Spyrex being protected, chose instead to protect the guy he knows to be town (Dogbot). If that doesnt makes sense to someone, once again, there should only be one scum. So either Spyrex is scum and Dogbot is innocent or Spyrex is town and Dogbot is innocent (barring some reason Spyrex doesnt die on a selected scum role).
My belief is I worked out scum's target and I blocked it.
I think purposely leaving another town player alive when they could be dead so that I could post the paragraph above would be a poor ass trade for 5 alive, 2 untested and the hider/weak cop himself in question with myself and DTMaster cleared by Spyrex.
Yes, that's a "I would never as scum", but seriously, its a poor tactical trade of position, and yes, I would take the knight in a quick strike on the way to the king instead of dragging things out longer to a poorer position.

[Ectomancer]

Well no..I would be dead...

So I couldn't have blocked a kill.

Why was there only one kill?

[SpyreX]

ITS STEWIE HOUR

Hmm. Right now I could vote for either Fate or thor. The former was throwing accusations left and right and now is voting for hohum for god knows what; the latter voted for someone who was making an obvious joke to vote for no reason, while ignoring another person who voted for no reason but made no joke. Also, could someone explain to me the case against Nachomama? I don't quite get it.

I won't change my vote for the time being, this game is moving too fast at the moment and I'm afraid to force a quick lynch. We have two weeks, I think we ought to use as much of that time as we can, within reason.

NINJAEDIT: disregard that (although I will leave it for future reference), Fate's call for a lynch at such an early stage is enough for me to VOTE: Fate

We talkin old school Vote town FoS a buddy here? Could be. Further, Fate-scum bus here this early only makes sense against a goon.

AND AND AND back to the original madness - that out of the gates silly wagon that he jumped on and off which raised the bells to begin with.... was on Thor. You know, that whole thing that made me want him lynched to begin with.

Interesting.

Lets fast forward to right before the end times:

1.Fate: I won't elaborate on this one too much as I believe I already have. I think he's the most likely to be scum based on his play up until now. I will, however, unvote at this point as we need to start moving in a different direction if we hope to end day 1 with a lynch.

2.SpyreX: I obviously disagree with his argument. I am baffled as to why he keeps pushing such a weak case against me, particularly given that nobody else (other than Fate) seems interested in it. He seems upset that people don't see things his way and would rather ask why than try to explain another way or give it up. He's relentless, but not in a way that is of much benefit to the town at the moment. His answer to other people telling him that X is a better lynch is "I will gladly lynch X, but I would rather lynch Stewie" which is an absolute cop out; in other words he continuosly asks people why they are not voting for me, but when asked why he's not voting for another player, his answer is that he's voting for me. He is also insistent on Fate being town, which I have no idea how he can come to that conclusion with the information provided by this thread.

I believe his behaviour to be scummy, but I do not think he's the best lynch for today, as he claimed a role which, if he is lying, we'll know soon enough.

3. DTMaster: First post with that attempted thor kill (which later turned out to be his way of classifying suspicion) had several accusations. However, that was early on the game and it was certainly conductive to conversation. I don't necessarely understand why he makes a distinction between "lynch" and "kill" but he explained what he means by them so it is ok by me. He asks lots of questions to players, which looks like him working hard to catch scum. I'm leaning towards him being pro-town.

4. Reverse Simplicity: Quick to put on the votes, quick to take them off. I don't really like his reasons for placing his vote, but I don't think he is gaining any advantage by his behaviour if he is scum, so I am leaning towards newbie town. I'm definitely keeping my eye on him though.

5.Thor: I am a bit worried about the way he reacted to the RVS by taking an obvious joke seriously, and continuing on even when the joke was explained. I have liked his play since; he explains his thoughts clearly such that there are no misunderstandings.
I probably said this 100 times by now, but clarity = good for town; confusion = good for scum.

6. Espeonage, DogBot, Ectomancer, Simenon, VasudeVa: I am lumping these together because I have similar feelings about them (also to save time, tbh): these players give the amount of contribution that I am more used to, and none of them has said or done anything that would make me think they are more likely to be town or scum. DogBot said he was trying something new, and in the process his posts have a bit less info than what I would otherwise like, however. A bit more from him would be a welcome change.

7. And with that, I am going to VOTE: Nachomamma8. Several things here. Obviously, he's the competing bandwagon.
But wait, there's more:
-votes for thor. Next post he says thor is town, without unvoting. He unvotes when he's called on it by thor. Not a great catch, but posting it because he's voting for me, and if his reason is the same as spyrex's, then he's voting for me for making a mistake when he made one himself.
-votes for fate, no reason given
-votes for RS, and again, no reason given.
-asked to give reasons, his answer is that he doesn't give reasons.
-votes for me, and you guessed it, no reasons given. In this case it would have been nice, since he was voting for fate the day prior, and an explanation of his change of heart would have been good. The voting pattern, if you look at the vote counts at the time of his votes, seems opportunistic to say the least.
-asks simenon not why he's voting for him, but why now and not earlier.

He has very few posts, and they are all very short and lacking in contribution. Probably the ISO that is the quickest read. He's been essentially lurking the whole game.

Still interested in Fate, however. I'll keep my eye on him as well.

This is his split (with the dead tallied):

Fate, SpyreX, DTM,

RS

, Thor

Espeonage

, DogBot, Ectomancer,

Simenon

,

VasudeVa

Nacho

Now, I was of the mindset his scum would be split THEN and I still am(ish). Which leads us to: Fate, SpyreX, DTM, Thor.

So, lets look at what he says in detail:
Fate: Scum but not the right vote
SpyreX: Scum but claim so no go
DTM: Town for fakekilling thor and information
Thor: Town for being concise. Wooo.

So if I believe my results which I still do that points pretty hard at thor. (Part of that will be LATER when we look at some other players why its not fate but I digress).

So, net results from these two major nuggets? Nothing awesome in and of itself.

BUT LETS NOT DILLY DALLY.

NEXT UP: A SHOCKING REVELATION

In looking at Nachomamma during this reread I realized something.

Something VERY IMPORTANT.

See, I was wrong on why he got killed.

You want to know why he got killed:

Scum picks:
1. Stewie
2. (VV or Ecto)
3. Thor

In the event of a stewie scum flip:
1. VV
2. Thor
3.(Dogbot OR DTM)

In the event of a stewie town flip:
1. SpyreX
2. (Dogbot OR DTM)
3. Ecto

Def town:
Fate
Espeonage
RS

RIGHT THERE BUDDIES

OHH NO WIFOM WIFOM SHUT UP

That is it. That is why he ate bullet.

WHY FATE ISNT SCUM: A TREATISE THAT SHOULD BE SELF EVIDENT

Want the low down?

Its not the being on both scum wagons or being a trooper with Stewie or any of that.

Its this:

You shoulda posted first Espeon.

Hohum your sense of humour is terrible, that's all.

Your reluctance to comment on anything besides my playstyle and how "you dun know if that makes me scum or not"

I expect more from you than RS.
Unvote:
Vote: Hohum

Why that?

Well, real simple.

It happened before the Stewie push. Throwing both your homies under the bus with a hider claim KNOWING THERE IS A MORE THAN NORMAL CHANCE YOULL GET "HID" BEHIND doesn't add up. At all. At the very least marginalizing the damage and pushing hohum first would have been a better call.

But, lets put our slightly tinfoil hat on for a second:

IF THERE IS A GODFATHER I DUB THEE SIR ECTO DUKE OF CHUTNEY

unvote from the kick off wagons. Been busy, on a fast for 10 days or so now. Tired a lot.
I see some movement patterns happening now, working out some why's. One items stands out at the moment:

This lacks sincerity, or for a different analogy, RS seems taut for the release Stewie's post provided. Fate hadn't even had a chance to respond yet?

Fate is a content generator, and ok to keep around if you don't mind the style. I don't mind it overly much, but his antics aren't an alignment indicator. If you keep him, he has to be held to the results of his actions for lynching decisions and that takes time.
RSimp claims newbie. He seemed to be doing fine prior to now, so I'm surprised that Spyrex is ripping the eyelets off the rod running with the line, but ok. Personally I think he still had an anti-town motive in his flip after Stewie's post in that he couldn't wait to OMGUS Fate given half a decent excuse. I guess newbie card could cover that issue.
Now that RSimp has played the newbie card, I'd appreciate it if you were extra careful about putting your vote down in an issue until it is clear the conversation has run dry.
Vasudeva's patronizing posts made me want to gut vote him.

Simenon I think that if you look at the rate newbie cards discourage day 1 wagons, I dont think that RSimp needs to be scum to explain town moving away from it, especially given that Spyrex seems to have a pretty decent shot at being town and is actively against it. Scum would have to be in active opposition to Spyrex (unlikely) or Spyrex would need to be scum (not as unlikely, but not likely either). For those like me not nearly as convinced as Spyrex, there also is not a glaring scumbag sitting there. so.

For the popular wagons, I'm not excited by either much. Stewie seems more like a town member than Nacho if I put those 2 on the scale. I can understand Stewie's vote for Fate. Early noise good for content generation, later noise is bad for filtering through the mess. I'd like to see Fate adjust his play to the stage of the game.

Dogbot is blah to me, Thor is blah to me. I still don't care for Vasudeva though it is not very definable. I have to search my feelings for its source. Total dislike for "sake of competing wagons".

Simenon is good traveling company.

Spyrex seems angry. I feel that part of his Stewie anger is over the "racist" thing, which is influencing his thoughts. I suppose one could wonder if Stewie faked his misunderstanding of cha-chink? We won't know, but I know that I knew it as cha-ching, like a cash register sound, like "You got it and win the cash!". I certainly feel a personal friction of some sort, and therefore am heavily discounting most of Spyrex's case against Stewie.

I guess this is where Nacho asks me not to vote for him and offers a better alternative. Yes, this is without me having worked out an actual case against Nacho.

If I missed someone, they are probably flying under the radar and are an acceptable lynch option as well. Thanks.

False premise. The question is whether Stewie is the best lynch. Away with your Bushism of "If you ain't fer us yer aginst us!"

I also noticed something else this town needs to be corrected on:

People who agree with you are not town. Got it?

First, I don't see why SpyreX would fakeclaim hider. Plenty of better 1st post fakeclaims out there(miller etc.). Plus, that claim puts him on a short leash. It also puts him on the lynch short list.

Second, I don't get 'DURR STEWIE FLIP WILL GIVE US INFO DURR'. ALL lynches give us info. If you're aiming to get a read on SpyreX by lynching Stewie: Stop it. SpyreX is already a ticking timebomb as it is. His claim is basically self doc or suicide cop depending on target. You'll get SpyreX's info when he dies otherwise he'll be lynched as scum, which will be good. I say I'd give him till D3(if we haven't lynched scum by then.).

---

@Spy: You admit in your lengthy case on Stewie that your case on him 'doesn't make him scum, but it's a warning sign'. Why are you rushing his lynch, if it's just a 'warning sign'? Also, thought's on Nacho.

@Simenon: Why so skeptical on SpyreX's claim? He's been known to claim like that out of the blue.

Best Post by Vasudeva.

In his interaction with the Stewie wagon, in that post he seemed to be agreeing with my own thoughts. That's good. You like to have people around that seem to be going basically where you want them to go so that you have fewer people you have to manipulate to steer the town. Earlier he rubbed me like sandpaper. I suppose that this might be one point in favor of your idea that there is information to be gained by lynching Stewie, but it now becomes because we have forced most everyone to take a position on Stewie. If we chose any other player at random and did the same train run on them, you would have the same result, in as far as another stage in game to RVS, we have the CTW (Create Two Wagons) stage in Day 1.
I am willing to take some minor criticism over my decision to attribute much of Spryex's viewpoint choice to his emotional disposition towards Stewie, but not much. That bias colors the degree of perceived transgression much like you will always think the worst of the neighborhood kid that egged your house at Halloween. Much of the strength of the wagon comes from players glomming on to Spyrex in large part because his claim seems to indicate he will flip town on death. Im not liking those glommers much that don't show inspiration and instead are yielding to Spyrex. That doesn't make sense to me. My simple fact of being town has not given me extra ability of catching scum, so why would it do so for Spyrex, if he does indeed turn up town?

Now, while this next question really is a false premise, it is a decent debate technique to use it so I will:

Why this focus on those who won't support Stewie? Why this insistence on making today only about Stewie? Which of you on that wagon are protecting Nacho? We're in CTW stage so that we get information from ties to TWO different people, not just one. I don't like this squelching of information sources.

Sounds awesome. Fireworks aren't until the 4th. While I have little interest in a stagnating conversation, this one has plenty of life left in it. There is a disturbing undercurrent here that implies that we have no time to do anything else. 7 days is enough time to gather the horsehair and braid it into a rope in addition to the actual hanging, so Im not sure where I got that "rushed" impression from. I had to go read Elli to find the actual date. It very well may be from your seeming insistence that we all take a stand on Stewie and nothing else. Regardless of your alignment, its anti-town to me. You're squeezing conversation and it makes no sense to me.

Uhh yeaa I'm not even going to go through those and explain the necessity for a bullet. Seriously the only thing giving me pause is my result.

ONE MORE DELICACY:

DogBot is town. I've got SECRET REASONS for this that I'm not derailing with but I'm confident enough with it.

HOWEVER:

MOD PROD DOGBOT PLEASE

ONE MORERER DELICACY:

DTM is town. I agree with Fate about the self-vote.

CONCLUSIONS

:

Looking at this I really think we done gonna see a Thor or Ecto scum.

Enough that I'm gonna say NO FATE BAD NOLYNCH and lay it out on the table:

The end result we're looking at scumside is either:

1.) Dead SpyreX OMG KILL FATE
2.) OHH ITS LYLO AND SPYREX IS STILL ALIVE WOOPS
(Hint: I need to be lynched TODAY or tomorrow for that to not happen).

So, instead of reactive I want to throw the dice:

Lynch me or Thor. Right here, right now. I'll hide behind Fate if its Thor and I'm wrong.

HOWEVER IF I AM TO DIE LOOK REAL, REAL DAMN CLOSE BECAUSE WHILE I STILL DONT THINK THERE IS A GODFATHER I

REALLY

DONT THINK FATE IS SCUM EITHER.

TO ADD TO THIS I HAVE A BIT OF MODFOM:

You didn't pick someone else to claim. That said, in the interest of expedience, since I'm the only one not on Spyrex's list who has yet to claim I'll go next.

Claim: Single Shot Night Vig

I have not yet used my power.

I'd like to have Fate claim unless someone can explain to me why that's a poor idea. I admit I doubt he helped bus his buddies like this, but until he's hidden behind I see no reason to clear him from claiming.

I'd prefer a DTMaster Lynch over Espeo (and both of them over me, natch). I'm fine listening to some direction on who, if anyone, people would like me to shoot. I somewhat feel my role isn't desperately needed here but we could probably speed stuff up. I'm thinking we lynch DT, I could shoot Espeo, and Spyrex could hide behind me or Fate. That seems to cover everything and leave us with plenty of time to lynch the wildcards as needed.

Edit: and as I type he posts his lists which hurt my head, I'll address them in a moment, they need more then a quick read.

Single shot versus 1-Shot?

HMM ITS A MYSTERY

SO HERE WE GO:

Unvote, Vote: Thor

LETS DANCE

[Ectomancer]

vote Thor

And yes you can lynch me if there comes a tomorrow and I'm still here. I'm protecting somebody, just don't know who it is.

[Fate]

ECTO YOU'RE PROTECTING SPYREX WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT IT.

[Fate]

Unvote:
Vote: Thor

YOU HAD ME AT "SINGLE NIGHT SHOT"


BUT.
IF YOU'RE WRONG...
SPYREX I SWEAR TO GOD IF SCUM KILLS YOU TONIGHT TO SET ME UP.

[SpyreX]

Just post this over and over again if I'm wrong AGAIN AND DEAD:


HOWEVER IF I AM TO DIE LOOK REAL, REAL DAMN CLOSE BECAUSE WHILE I STILL DONT THINK THERE IS A GODFATHER I REALLY DONT THINK FATE IS SCUM EITHER.

HOWEVER IF I AM TO DIE LOOK REAL, REAL DAMN CLOSE BECAUSE WHILE I STILL DONT THINK THERE IS A GODFATHER I REALLY DONT THINK FATE IS SCUM EITHER.

HOWEVER IF I AM TO DIE LOOK REAL, REAL DAMN CLOSE BECAUSE WHILE I STILL DONT THINK THERE IS A GODFATHER I REALLY DONT THINK FATE IS SCUM EITHER.

HOWEVER IF I AM TO DIE LOOK REAL, REAL DAMN CLOSE BECAUSE WHILE I STILL DONT THINK THERE IS A GODFATHER I REALLY DONT THINK FATE IS SCUM EITHER.

[Thor665]

Good lord. Synonyms - ever heard of them?

I would think my inherent flair with language is pretty darn obvious and I can't believe that qualifies as the tipping point on a 'Thor as scum' case.

Whatever, get one of the others to come in and hammer me as I refuse to self hammer, then when I flip town you can grouse about me being an evil/terrible player for saying 'single' instead of 'one' (and I'll grouse in endgame about what a fail scum tell it is, ), then town can extract heads from backsides and figure out the Ecto/Fate question (of which I will admit I'm on the Ecto as scum GF side - for reference tomorrow).

[Thor665]

BUT.
IF YOU'RE WRONG...
SPYREX I SWEAR TO GOD IF SCUM KILLS YOU TONIGHT TO SET ME UP.

Meh, then maybe no lynch plus investigation of you for eventual lynch of you/Ecto is the better play.

I'm saying this so I'll have plausible deniability that I was 'on to him' later if this is a Fate scum scheme.

[SpyreX]

If Fate is scum he did a bangup job.

Claiming your role is not a time for synonyms tia. Not that it matters too much but.

And, like I said yesterday one kill today was bad news for you and I hate nolynching soo

[Ectomancer]

Hmm. Back when I had the chance, I almost chose to protect Espeo, but I thought he was scum. You'll either see the sincerity, or no. I protected Dogbot because I knew smart town also knew it could be worked out that he was town.
So let me see. If we lynch Thor, and there is 1 kill tonight, if still game on tomorrow that leaves 4? And so I think a no lynch would occur? How large a jury will scum want?
Hope we dont get there.

[Ellibereth]

NO LYNCH WAS REACHED AS OF POST 748

DOGBOT HAS ALREADY BEEN PRODDED. HE'LL PROBABLY BE REPLACED TONIGHT.

VOTECOUNT 4.1 (as of P. 748)

No Lynch (3) - Fate, Thor665, DTmaster

NOT VOTING(3): Ectomancer, Spyrex, Dogbot

DEADLINE - DOESN"T REALLY MATTER NOW

6 ALIVE = 4 TO LYNCH

NO LYNCH HAS OCCURRED. NIGHT ACTIONS DUE IN THREE DAYS AS OF NOW.

[Ellibereth]

HOOPLA REPLACES DOGBOT

[Ellibereth]

I always thought of DTMaster as DTM Master in my head. DT master just doesn't feel right for some reason...What's a DT anyway? Dark Templar?

DTMASTER, VANILLA TOWNIE, KILLED NIGHT 4

IT IS NOW DAY 5

VOTECOUNT 5.0

NOT VOTING - EVERYONE

DEADLINE - TIME I POST THIS + 2 WEEKS (I'LL FIGURE IT OUT SOON)

5 ALIVE = 3 TO LYNCH

[SpyreX]

Ready for a surprise?

Fate is innocent!

Unvote, Vote Thor

I dont even know what I'm going to do if tomorrow happens.

[Thor665]

I dont even know what I'm going to do if tomorrow happens.

Start contemplating then, you'll need to have it figured out sooner or later.

It's a godfather and he shows up as innocent to your investigations.

I think Ecto is the most likely but will admit with Dogbot's disappearance that it might explain the single kill on the night I killed Espeo. I'd rather kill both of them since I think that equates to guaranteed town win. Unfortunately common sense does say I'm the next to die and if for some reason you don't lynch me I think it mostly screws with town. The way I see it we have three options.

Don't lynch Thor - mislynch Dogbot(Hoopla)
Spy checks Thor
scum Ecto kills Spy, implicates Thor - scum win.

Don't lynch Thor - mislynch Ecto
Spy checks Thor
scum Dogbot(Hoopla) kills Spy, implicates Thor - scum win.

Lynch Thor - Thor flips town.
50/50 lynch Hoopla or Ecto.

I can't not be the lynch today at this stage if town is to win, and the 'no lynch' proved any lingering fears of Fate I had are wrong.

I still refuse to vote for myself on the basis that voting for yourself is terrible and I don't want it on my record. that said, I think I do need to be the lynch today in town's best interests and advocate that lynch. I will point out a certain dislogic in me claiming Vig if I was scum, and will also note I still hate that one/single thing as a scum tell. I think it's terrible.

Good luck town, sorry for whatever I did to blunder into this one and I'll catch you all in endgame.

[Thor665]

Meh, and it occurs to me the 50/50 could be taken today via the Hoopla/Ecto consideration, but frankly I think town will think clearer once I'm off the table.

[Hoopla]

Hello everyone, I am Dogbot 2.0. I've been half heartedly following this game, so my read shouldn't take too long. Can someone give a list of the living players and their claims/results, just as a reference point for me.

[Hoopla]

Ready for a surprise?

Fate is innocent!

Unvote, Vote Thor

I dont even know what I'm going to do if tomorrow happens.

I'm 95% sure Thor is town - I'll post reasons shortly, but I suggest you unvote. If not, I strongly urge others to hold their vote for the moment.

[Thor665]

Spyrex - Weak Cop
investigate - Dogbot, Ectomancer, DTMaster, Fate

Thor665 - *single* shot day vig

Ectomancer - Bodyguard
n1 - Spyrex
n2 - Spyrex
n3 - Dogbot
n4 - Spyrex (presumed)

[Hoopla]

Thor = town. Here's why;

VOTECOUNT 1.14

Nachomama8

(4) - Thor665,

VasudeVa

,

Stewie

,

Reverse Simplicity

Stewie

(7) - Fate, Spyrex,

Nachomama8, Espeonage

, Ectomancer,

Simenon

, Dogbot
Dogbot (1) -

DTMaster

PEOPLE NOT VOTING (0):

I'm a little surprised at how little attention the final Day 1 vote count received, because it truly is quite illuminating. I was reading along with fascination at how obviously contrived the Nacho wagon was, and it's no surprise that the two flipped scum were pushing this to rival Stewie's lynch. This vote count is significant on two counts. Firstly, for Thor to be scum, it means that all three scum were holding hands in a row whilst pushing the Nacho wagon, and I find this ridiculously unlikely.

Without offense, I seriously doubt Thor and VasudeVa would have the balls to deliberately block-vote together on Day 1, especially when you consider the likelihood of their partner going down. It would be such an unnecessary risk to all link together this way. Playing scum, there is always a curious air of collective conciousness between you all. You're constantly filtering and deliberating on which fake cases to pursue and chase, knowing you are lying, and it is very natural to take in what your partners are doing, even if this is largely subconciously. Part of being scum is playing in a way to proactively prevent attacks from coming to yourself or your partners, so scum will usually play in a manner to evade town's expectations. Basic scum might vet their posts for obvious links with their partner, by trying to pull off believable interaction between each other, which includes suspicion, praise and defending. Basic scum might also be wary to be too aggressive, buddy too much, coach, rolefish and a plethora of other associative tells. This is their way of trying to outwit town, by playing in manner evading what tells they think might be used.

But most importantly, you cannot evade what you do not know will be used. And I have serious doubts about the extent of VasudeVa and Thor's proactive defense/distancing to bandwagon and vote count analysis. Like all those other tells, there are ways to evade the effectiveness of vote-count analysis with tactics like block-voting or positioning yourself and your team in unusual combinations. But I have no reason to believe any of the scum would have gone out their way to do this, or even knew this was a threat. It is far more likelier that they'd know being on the rival D1 wagon with scum is a tell that would get them caught, so I doubt ALL THREE would try this tactic.

Before I am accused of probabalistic justification, I will unveil my second point. Recently I did some legwork unearthing Day 1 lynches in 3:9 Mini Normal set-ups. So here, have some data;

Amount of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1

Town

Lynch (43 games):

0 Scum - 1 (2.1%)
1 Scum - 13 (27.7%)
2 Scum - 18 (38.3%)
3 Scum - 15 (31.9%)

Amount of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1

Scum

Lynch (23 games):

0 Scum - 1 (4.3%)
1 Scum - 12 (52.2%)
2 Scum - 10 (43.5%)

These statistics are relevant because it shows quite clearly (especially in the town lynches because of a bigger sample size) that probabalistic arguments aren't always founded. Here are the odds of the same data sets assuming the votes were purely random (thanks go to Shanba for helping me with the math);

Actual odds

of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1

Town

Lynch:

0 Scum - (2.4%)
1 Scum - (25.5%)
2 Scum - (50.9%)
3 Scum - (21.2%)

Actual odds

of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1

Scum

Lynch:

0 Scum - (10.9%)
1 Scum - (51.9%)
2 Scum - (38.2%)

As you can see, in the town games there is clearly a scum conciousness at work pushing lynches of townies that run counter to probabalistic reasoning. Another worrying statistic is how often scum bus in 3:9's. Only once has ZERO scum not been on the scum lynch Day 1, which is exactly the category that Thor falls in. I find it almost inconceivable that Thor could be the last scum, because it would be a truly bizarre voting pattern for scum on Day 1 that they surely wouldn't actively seek. And if they weren't actively seeking this obscure defense to an obscure style of analysis, it is highly unlikely they all wound up their by chance, as I have shown there is infact a swing toward bussing a buddy on Day 1 as scum, which would make this even more unfathomable.

[Hoopla]

Thor, on what night did you shoot and who?

[Hoopla]

I am almost certain that one of our powerroles is the final scum, based on balance likelihoods. I'll make a more detailed case for this after Thor gives me an answer. If I'm right about my assumption, Spyrex is the correct lynch today.