Mini 980 - Trader Mafia (Game Over)

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Can't we all just no-lynch and no-kill until all the scum have more than $1000 each. The mafiosi all win simultaneously and leave the game and then all the townies win too!

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##Vote: Nobody Special

VasudeVa, please join me in my glorious gazavát against the infidel NS!

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Gah.

##Vote: Nobody Special

Justice will not be denied.

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Why does Nobody Special have less than 7 votes? Suffer not the witch to live!

P.S. that's one sucky plan.

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@SPS: Why NS?

Because he is an infidel waiting to be purged from our lands with fire!

Andrius, this is just how Jack plays.

Jack does have a valid point about Andrius-Zang, albeit a not particularly significant one.

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*hops*

Unvote, vote: Andrius

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Andrius, you'll find everything you seek implied in my last post.

*hops more effectively*

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Vote: VasudeVa

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I read the sentence the same way as Fishy reads it.

@Zang, SPS, SK, Flash, anyone I've missed: who is scum and why? This game needs more from you.

I believe it's Mafia A and Mafia B. You shouldn't expect much more than that from me on page 9. My gut needs more to work with.

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Uh no, you need both 1000$ and 50%. Zoraster made it fairly clear it's not meant to be all that viable.

VV, the first reading totally works. One reads it as "talking about [mechanics that don't really matter/apply yet]".

P.S. I'm voting for you 'cause we'll never get anywhere without pressure.

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No.

1. Have at least $1000 in cash minus debts AND
2. Have at least 50% of total cash in the game (of those alive)

Note the "AND".

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"Anarcho-Syndicalist Mafia" (Mafia B

It appears the Mafia B have a name. Did no one else notice this? It seems obviously relevant.

SPS's vote hop is setting off my scumdar, especially when his first attempt was wrong and he corrected it by jumping on the actual larger bandwagon. Voting for bandwagoning's sake in RVS is one thing. Doing it post-RVS is something else entirely.

Bandwagonning is a valid early game (Day 1-2) strategy.

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##Vote: SaintKerrigan

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##Vote: VasudeVa

ISGMEOY: SaintKerrigan

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I disagree with the case on Andrius.

##Vote: SaintKerrigan

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Any reason in particular for the vote, SPS?

Yes.

[quote=""farside""]I want to vote SPS just for that last comment and vote alone.[/quote]
Do you find it suspicious that SK doesn't?

[quote=""farside""]Voting for SK for what exactly?[/quote]
Post 289 & Post 290.

[quote=""farside""]Just because you disagree with a case?[/quote]
No. There is no relation between the two parts of my post.

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Why do these two posts make me scummy?

Guess.

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@ SPS: I already explained that my Farside vote was for reaction-hunting purposes. Once she reacted I unvoted her. Pay attention, please.

I am aware of your attempt at revisionism.

I have no clue how 290 constitutes a reason to vote me, so elaboration on that would be good.

Context. For more context, you could consider Jack's post 294.

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Your point is still as

obfuscated

self-evident as it was before.

Fixed!

Did you say you had a case on me, by the way?

No, I implied it.

Andrius confirming he has a role makes him more likely to be town.

No, it does not. Want to come up with a better reason for ditching the Andriuswagon?

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Fixed!

Mine was better.

Can you show me where you implied it, then? I'm totally not seeing it.

Post 292.

Also, you're wrong. See response to AlmasterGM.

I'm not. Your attempt at mathematics is faulty. The odds of Andrius being scum does not suddenly reset upon gaining objective information about him. For example, if we knew with 90% accuracy Andrius was scum, that would not suddenly drop down to 40% upon finding out he had a role. We obtain new information, sure, but that's why we have conditional probabilities. You could use e.g. Bayes' Theorem.

Example: Let's assume 2.5 of the scum have a role and 3.5 of the town do and we think Andrius has a 50% chance of being scum. Then we discover Andrius has a role. The new odds of him being scum is 0.5*0.625/(0.625*0.5+3.5/6*0.5) = 0.52... In fact since we assumed the density of roles among scum to be slightly greater than the density of roles among town, it would always slightly increase.

Conclusion: Your reasons for unvoting are nonsensical.

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I was belittling your "case".

No, you weren't. How can you belittle my "case" when you're still pretending not getting it?

Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum is only taking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There is definitely a 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)

In other words, you're pulling numbers out of your ass because if you had done it properly, you wouldn't have obtained the conclusion you wanted. My methodology is provably correct.

Also, I'm pursuing other targets by using my vote. I have plenty of reason to unvote. Kiss my ass.

Yeah, Zang is clearly a better vote.

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We need

some

more people voting SaintKerrigan.

Fixed!

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Steam is not free to answer this question because I already know he is a shut-down hypertunneling townie. Kinda reminds me of Cyberbob in Mini 934, eh Steam?

I totally am free to answer the question. You might not want me to, but you can't impugn my right of free speech.

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FoS: SpyreX

A cop claim is a fine idea.

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In other news, SPS dislikes Spyrex calling my bandwagon lame. (This reason shall be used to explain his FoS until such time as he puts forth a better explanation.)

I do dislike it (obviously). That's a very weak reason to be suspicious of someone though, whereas my actual reason is only sort of weak.

ISOing NS gives me a slight town read on the dude.

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So what was your actual reason for FoSing Spyrex, then?

If I felt like saying, I would've said so initially.

This needs to be explained.

Explanation: my gut says so.

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I don't imitate.

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SaintK "hammered" NS, and in "twilight," NS confirmed that he is VT. Unless he's lying and he really did see what SaintK did before then, then he's town.

Scum should never claim scum (there's absolutely zero benefit) and certainly not without double-checking the vote count.

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I don't think they usually do, although yes, it does happen. I see no reason to suppose that NS would've claimed scum in this situation. Let's ask:

NS, do you claim scum when you're scum and you think you've been lynched?

Random thought: If the endgame comes down to one person from each scumteam, would the game end in a draw?

That would depend on the powers they have, no? This is not an ordinary game of mafia.

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Yarr, our move here is pretty obvious.

Also, weren't you the one that said $146 was close to the maximum limit a townie could bid and safely pay off the debt later? Why bump it up to 166? Wouldn't that put you over the safe limit?

Townies get $20 each day, not $30 like you do.

I buy Zajnet's story.

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Ugh. Should probably re-read.

SaintKerrigan, the difference between my behaviour and Cyberbob's behaviour in mini 934 is that my behaviour was mostly exaggerated to draw a reaction from you. And you've recently made some posts that make me think you're town, so another difference is that I'm capable of changing my mind.

And I FoSed SpyreX because I'm approximately 90% sure SpyreXscum would go after me seeing as an easy target/opposing scum, while I was only 70%ish sure SpyreXtown would go after me because he's bad at reading me.

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@SPS: right now, you need to claim all your abilities and transactions for the entire game, and send AGM all your money.

I got the cop and body armour, so I'm in debt and will be going bankrupt. Sorry, AGM, no money from me either.

I sadly targetted Jack Night 1 since he's fairly unreadable and I targetted SK Night 4 - innocent.

Anyway, I tend to think that Zang is Andrius' partner. Jack found a link between them right after he got the double vote - fairly irrelevant then since we did not know either's alignment, but relevant now. As such, I don't trust this nopoint fellow. I also doubt he'd be doing this if there weren't some chance of winning in it for him.

##Vote: nopoint

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Oh snap. Forgot about the Investigation Immunity.

Okay, for real this time: I'm mafia A. I bought the nightkill and tried to get both the cop and body armour to set up this claim, but I wasn't paying enough attention and failed to get the cop.

Andrius and I decided to off Jack Night 1 since he was going after Andrius (and we figured (correctly) that we'd get away with it.)
Then we decided to off SpyreX since he's a good scumhunter and he was onto me.

nopoint is scum B and all the nightkilling powers lie in their hands. He needs to die.

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I'm not. I don't have the money.

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I didn't counterclaim when the town was looking for one because the odds of me winning now that I'm outed are crazy low. As a general rule, it's bad scum strategy to admit to being scum. I might well not have claimed scum even now after the II-forgetting screw-up if not for the fact that I got essentially lynched over that very thing (ie. still denying it even after it was pretty much confirmed I was scum) in Evolution Mafia despite the fact that the other confirmed scum had clear signs of being nightkill immune.

P.S. I find it very peculiar that when faced with two confirmed scum you're voting for someone else entirely.

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Just fyi, Andrius only went after Investigation Immunity after I had failed to get Cop.

There is a problem with Nopoint being Scum B, though: SPS is definitely lying about what abilities he has. If he really was Mafia A and bought both the NK and the Bulletproof Vest, his BV should've gone to auction today, like Zang's Pickpocket did. SPS would've paid $294 for those two abilities, and the most money he can scrounge up in three days time to pay the debt off, including his starting funds, is $215. Therefore, since BV did not go to auction today, he definitely did not buy one of those abilities, and it has to be the NK. This means SPS is also Scum B.

No. Zang put it up for auction himself, that wasn't the mod's doing. I'll go bankrupt once we lynch today, that's how the timing works out. Feel free to check with the mod.

If he was really Mafia A, he would either have been very careful not to slip or counterclaim me right after I claimed.

I was careful, I made sure my first post of this day had my change of heart regarding SK in it. Sometimes stuff just slips your mind. And counterclaiming is a ridiculously bad idea.