Mini 975 - Dirty Dirty South Mafia - game over

[Ellibereth]

I'm guessing 2 scum on 1 scum off. Usually has been in my experience.

[Earlder1]

Unvote

I sent my pm at the very beginning of the day. I looked up my time and it was...

Monday at 9:18 pm

I tracked Kenman because he's my buddy lol. I don't know any other players in this game so I figured I would just track him, although I am currently tracking someone else because Kenman is sure scum and I don't wanna waste my ability on him.

So I guess the plan is to lynch neither Kenman or I...? If that truly is the strategy then please lynch Kenman tomorrow. I don't wanna drag this out because both my death and his death will confirm me. The scum may just keep me alive and roleblock me so that it doesn't expose that Kenman is lying.

I'm not sure who else I'm comfortable lynching at this moment, however, so I will run through the thread again before suggesting someone else.

Kenman is scum though.....we should just lynch him......

[camn]

Earl... my strategy is sound. Kenman will take care of himself.

PLUS.. him flipping scum wouldn't confirm you in any way.
At all.
Ask Ellibereth. He knows about trashing your partner for the win

[SerialClergyman]

Yep, OK, I'm in with the mae wagon.

If there's any scum off the wagon it's probably her.

I'm also not totally sold on Steam Powered Shovel. I don't disagree with almost anything he's said, and he reacted well to you voting him, Elli. It's possible that (scum out of kenman and earld) was the only one on the wagon, and that button and mae were both off the wagon - the first one was pushed pretty hard, quite possible that the scum decided they could avoid most votes.

Vote Maemuki

[SaintKerrigan]

Ask Ellibereth. He knows about trashing your partner for the win

Lol this.

[Hoopla]

I'm okay with a Mae wagon too, but wouldn't mind some more Steamshovel votes to compete with it. My scum-vibe from Elli has fallen away a little bit, but I'm nowhere near comfortable with declaring him as a town ally yet.

Roleblockers resolve after hiding, so that doesn't interfere with the tracker result, which makes it an 'either or' thing with Kenman and Earl. I have a heavy inclination that Kenman is the liar, and was probably coached into it by his scumteam. I'm not sure about bouncy's claim, but it's hard to see the scum motivation behind it.

I'm in favour of massclaim tomorrow, for what it's worth.

[Hoopla]

Earl... my strategy is sound. Kenman will take care of himself.

PLUS.. him flipping scum wouldn't confirm you in any way.
At all.
Ask Ellibereth. He knows about trashing your partner for the win

I really don't buy the double-PR fakeclaim hyper-bus theory. If Kenman flips scum, I'm pretty sure that mostly would clear Earl in my mind. I don't think they're the sort of players to attempt such a strategy. They'd need someone like Elli (or me I guess) coaching them to go down that path or even consider it.

[SerialClergyman]

If it's SPS or Mae, I'm with Mae. No competing vote here. Do you actually think he's scummy, or would you just like to see how the chips fall on the wagons?

I also think the huper bus theories are unlikely.

Why massclaim tomorrow over today? The scum have power to aim at today, just as they would tomorrow?

[Hoopla]

If it's SPS or Mae, I'm with Mae. No competing vote here. Do you actually think he's scummy, or would you just like to see how the chips fall on the wagons?

I also think the huper bus theories are unlikely.

Why massclaim tomorrow over today? The scum have power to aim at today, just as they would tomorrow?

Kenman is probably scum. He won't die. Earl is a tracker and probably town. Bouncy I am not sold on, but is possibly town. I think the town probably has one or two more PR's left, so I wouldn't mind keeping them closed for tonight, as we might catch out scum attempting to off one of our PR's, rather than claiming and trying to set-up night actions, not knowing who is truthful and how scum can intervene. How'd that work out for you in Mini 956?

I kind of believe Elli here, and think he is the likeliest [other] scum on the Midnight wagon, but there is almost certainly one of it too. I don't have opinion either way on that, so give me a little while to read through the candidates for the 'off-the-wagon' scum.

[SerialClergyman]

That's a bit of a cheap shot - using one game is a bit unfair - I've pushed massclaims in about 5 games i can think of and in all except that one they were a major benefit to the town (or would have been if they'd gotten up - imagine what a massclaim would have done in communist mafia?)

Besdies, it SHOULD have been effective in that game - we got Ecto and McGriddle to depend on each other's claims, and the same with the masons. Unfrotuantely, we didn't capitalise on that fact, but again, in theroy I think it was the right option.

Ok, have a read and come back with your thoughts. I'm OK with people changing frames of reference to include those two lynch candidates, but I want them to admit it. And asking for a coutner-wagon on someone who you have no real opinion on is a little odd.

[Hoopla]

That's a bit of a cheap shot - using one game is a bit unfair - I've pushed massclaims in about 5 games i can think of and in all except that one they were a major benefit to the town (or would have been if they'd gotten up - imagine what a massclaim would have done in communist mafia?)

I imagine early massclaim would have been supremely beneficial to scum, as we certainly wouldn't have claimed JOAT and tracker that early. We would have located the Vigilante and Doctor, and we had a roleblock, as well as an anti-doc kill to manipulate actions and get double kills. That would have killed the town.

The problem with early (D1/D2) massclaim is that you only have a couple more mislynches to test claims. Generally you will confirm a townie or two, or even a scum if you're lucky. Locking people into claims isn't worth sacrificing the power of independent PR's information gathering abilities. When you've got a network of claimed PR's you're working with, where some are false, some are true, you're trying to orchestrate things to prove one or two things usually. But you have no idea what roles scum have, and they can really change things. Really. I think you're underestimating how easy it is to use one night action to completely mess with the system.

I believe you'll have more luck with powerroles staying hidden, gathering information on their own, less likely to be prone to scum manipulation and then claiming the information when they have something worthwhile. Every night PR's stay hidden, the more information builds up and characterises your play. Fakeclaiming anything other than vanilla is very difficult as scum later in the game. I'm skeptical of town's abilities to logically process so much information in an early massclaim and make optimal decisions.

[SerialClergyman]

What can I say - I totally disagree.

I think it's easy to claim almost anything in lylo - that's kind of the point. The earlier the claim, the longer you have to keep justifying that claim. Claim cop in lylo you can put whatever resutls you'd like, dead people, already confirmed people etc etc. Claim cop on D1 and you ahve to keep comign up with results, painting yourself into a corner.

PRs should have freedom, no question, and I'm generally not in favour of town dictating all PR choices. In that case it certainly is too easy to mess up.

But in terms of simply gaining a role title, I couldn't disagree more. I think it's harder to maintain the earlier you do it, the earlier you do it the longer you ahve to process the results. Even something as simple as getting a rough gauge of where scum are based by power - if there's a huge amount of power you can pretty much tell most of the scu mare in the roles group - easy way to fight them.

/inv 4 - for example - we determined that there was too much power so the scum were probably fakeclaiming. That, plus we realised that 2 people in one group were easily confirmable and 1 was confirmed. So that allowed us to lynch a claimed hider and find him scum, and then lynch the person he 'hid' on who was also scum and we hit I think 4/5 scum in the next 5 lynches to win the game.

I guess you're looking at it very much in terms of results - what resutls do we have this early and what results are we likely to get effectively from the MC on. What I'm suggesting is that locking fakeclaims EARLY without dictating night choices makes life difficult for the scum because you've got enough time to deal with it and for the fake results to get significantly harder.

[Hoopla]

Good mods will prevent town's ability to break a game with massclaim. Incognito is a good mod. I feel like this discussion is best served until after the game, because tomorrow is the minimum time I will massclaim.

[Maemuki]

Of there's nothing in my ISO if when the activity happens everybody has said what I wanted to say anyway.

Camn, remember Lovers? Do you really want to turn this into lovers again?

@ Elli, that is the stupidest reason ever. We do not know if you're town, although you may know. Therefore, I can vote you for the exact same reason. Anything else to add?

[Hoopla]

Of there's nothing in my ISO if when the activity happens everybody has said what I wanted to say anyway.

Camn, remember Lovers? Do you really want to turn this into lovers again?

That's dumb. Don't be dumb. Don't make threats that reference your crap games as town, because if we are to assume this is your town playstyle, then you can get away with it as scum too. Start posting or replace out.

[Maemuki]

That's dumb. Don't be dumb. Don't make threats that reference your crap games as town, because if we are to assume this is your town playstyle, then you can get away with it as scum too. Start posting or replace out.

I'm posting, what do you want me to talk about aside from what everybody else already said?

[SerialClergyman]

Mae - At least signify which thoughts from other people you agree with so we can get an understanding of exactly what your thoughts are on this game.

Hoopla - it's relevent to the game now - I'm not just theory discussing for the hell of it. I get that you're not into a massclaim now, but it's good to discuss. And the point of a massclaim isn't just to break the game, that's what I'm trying to say. It's to severly cut down on the range of fakes and explanations scum can come up with by the end of the game.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Okay, I agree with camn that we should give kenman a day. And I'm opposed to a mass claim today.

I don't really see the case against Maemuki. She's been lurking, sure, but I don't see that as particularly indicative of alignment. I prefer my Buttonvote.

P.S. I am allergic to "N scum on/off the wagon"-type reasoning.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla - it's relevent to the game now - I'm not just theory discussing for the hell of it. I get that you're not into a massclaim now, but it's good to discuss. And the point of a massclaim isn't just to break the game, that's what I'm trying to say. It's to severly cut down on the range of fakes and explanations scum can come up with by the end of the game.

Sure. But I have yet to see evidence or any crystalline logic that shows towns consistently win/benefit from early massclaims. Locking scum into claims is fine and dandy, but if they all claim vanilla, or one powerrole, the scum can easily pick off the most dangerous threat that night, and muck with another's results if they have any sort of additional power. It might have came off a couple of times, but you're gambling on confirming innocents/scum early, because town PR life (and overall power) is reduced significantly.

You're still in the boat with outed power, there is a minority trying to stop/trick you, yet you need to all work together and decide who to kill. But the outlook of the game changes and role information/actions will take precedence as the prime lynching factor, and the game will come down to whoever can plan/figure out the logic puzzle easiest. Scum have a distinct advantage here as they generally have other powers to predict the course of the game easier, whereas town can only speculate what can be messed with and who is truthful.

It does cut down the range of fakes, and massclaims are good for catching scum claiming power, but what do you think would happen if all the scum claimed vanilla? The three town PR's will be sitting there - one neutralised by scum power, one killed. What are you going to do the next day?

[Hoopla]

Massclaims work really well in high density PR games, but if half or more of the game is vanilla, it doesn't seem productive as there is too much hiding space for scum.

[SerialClergyman]

Well, knowing all the scum is in the vanilla contingent and you can trust results from PRs (and have all 3 as confirmed town) is worthwhile in and of itself. (you can make this assumption based on power of the town etc) Plus you have full access to all of their results so far (something you won't get if one of them gets killed without breadcrumbing).

Plus in this game, like in almost any other I suggest the claim, we already have SOME claimed roles. Which means we likely have one neutralised and one killed today ANYWAY.

I still feel like we're talking about apples and oranges somewhat when I hear your arguments.

Anyway, it does indeed seem moot given I have a total of zero support for the plan.

[Hoopla]

I'll support massclaim tomorrow.

[SerialClergyman]

Consolation prize from the lovely lady

We'll discuss theory more after the game.

[SaintKerrigan]

I disagree with massclaiming today as well.

Maaaaaybe

tomorrow, but I'm more likely to agree with it sometime around Day 4 or later.

Roleblockers resolve after hiding, so that doesn't interfere with the tracker result

That's only if Incog uses Natural Action Resolution or something like it. According to the Deep South rules, certain actions resolve before others. Roleblock starts from the time the action was submitted until the end of the day.

Kenman, do you know what action category your role falls under in the Deep South mechanic? Is it an Instant action, a Rest of the Day action, or an End of the Day action? Yes, this is very important.

Guys, let's not lynch anyone until morning is over. Will explain later.

That said, Maemuki needs to produce moar content.

[Ellibereth]

@ Elli, that is the stupidest reason ever. We do not know if you're town, although you may know. Therefore, I can vote you for the exact same reason. Anything else to add?

Yeah, so I know I'm town so it's a legit reason for me. If people think I'm town it's a legit reason for them too.
Also: Asking ME if I have anything else to add???? From you???? We all have no idea what YOU think about ANYTHING.

P.S. I am allergic to "N scum on/off the wagon"-type reasoning.

Well....it works.
Also, in my experience, people who attack the method is usually scum but my exp. is kinda limitted so far.

Agree with Hoops about massclaim TOMORROW and that competing Steamshovel and Mae would be golden.