Mini 975 - Dirty Dirty South Mafia - game over

[Hoopla]

Vote: SaintKerrigan

I don't want to have to put with your apathetic whining this game.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: Maemuki

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: Kenman

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: bouncybouncy

[Hoopla]

I'm thinking it's about time for bouncy to claim. Thoughts?

[Hoopla]

Good question. How does that make you feel? *holds mic out*

It makes me feel like you're being hypocritical since none of your posts contain more than two sentences.

Unvote: Bouncy.bouncy. Vote: Midnight's Sorrow.

Go, wagon, go!

Wait, why are you bailing from the bouncy wagon?

[Hoopla]

You realize you're setting yourself up for the Day 2 lynch if bouncy flips scum right?

[Hoopla]

What is that, Hoopla? Even if that was the case, why do you think scum would risk their neck like that?

I'm not picking up what you're putting down.

I don't know. I'm just playing the devil's avocado.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: Midnight's Sorrow

That isn't the sort of gamble a townie would make - looks to me like inside knowledge on what bouncy will flip, in a bif to manipulate a favourable scenario for himself Day 2.

[Hoopla]

Quite the opposite really.

Can you tell me who your town and scum reads are?

[Hoopla]

Wow, this is a ridiculously fast game. In the spirit of that,

Did you know when you entered this was a Speed game with 96 hour days? Also, did you know this game uses a Deep South mechanic?

[Hoopla]

No; Elaborate please.

Are you saying you want bouncy lynched so as to prove Ellibereth wrong?

Yes, he is. He

knows

bouncy will flip town, and is trying to set-up Elli. Keep up.

[Hoopla]

Lol, I guess not, but it's ok. I think I can keep up. In terms of Deep South, yes I was aware of that mechanic

You can make up for it by voting for Midnight's Sorrow.

[Hoopla]

Well that's a matter of opinion.

So, what is your opinion then? Who is scum? Enough has happened in the game to be posting content.

---

Midnight's Sorrow:

You still haven't told me anything about any of your reads.

[Hoopla]

Internal debate on Midnight being SCUM or VI right now.
Ditto with bouncy, especially after my experience with him in PYP II.

Bouncy, why are you so obsessed over a piece of logic used that was clearly intended as a joke.

I believe the VI argument more for bouncy than Midnight's Sorrow. Make a proper stance on him though, rather than keeping your options open. Would you be prepared to vote him or not?

[Hoopla]

@ Clergy......... weren't you in Deep South Speedy Massive?

He was my hydra partner in Haylen's 109 - you were a town godfather.

[Hoopla]

Midnight Sorrow's post count: 14
Midnight Sorrow's emoticon count: 12

[Hoopla]

@hoppla: Are you seriously going to use emoticons against me?? Wow....

I don't see how my post served to incriminate you in any way.

[Hoopla]

Elli-scum likes calling dying town players town. Just in case anyone was wondering. I'm not feeling Elli-town this game.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla - thoughts on Midnight? Still thinking scum?

I think one of Elli or Midnight is scum - but they're definitely not scum together. I am in favour of lynching Midnight though, because Elli is more valuable to have around if he's town.

[Hoopla]

Hoops, you don't think Elli-town would defend Midnight-Town here?

Well, I'm trying to figure what's a likelier motivation of going from this;

TOWN: Camn, Earl, Elli, Kerri, Serial, Hoops
LEAVING: bouncy, Ken, Mae, Midknight, Steamshovel, Button

If bouncy is scum, midknight is a buddy.

to this;

Internal debate on Midnight being SCUM or VI right now.
Ditto with bouncy, especially after my experience with him in PYP II.

Bouncy, why are you so obsessed over a piece of logic used that was clearly intended as a joke.

When you consider the influx of votes being heaped on to Midnight, I doubt you'd link yourself right before his death if you were his buddy. It just reminds me a lot of you as scum, because as town, you're usually less concerned about the consequences, and prepared to take a punt (especially Day 1). Tentativeness and weak defenses don't bode well for you, when it's usually one extreme or the other.

To answer your question though, I guess I could see town/town, but I don't know why else you'd try and stop it or voice your concern if you weren't trying to keep blood off your hands.

[Hoopla]

I'm not sold on bouncy's logic. There are multiple ways for a kill to be stopped, but it's a tough situation that we can't really

not

go with.

Kenman should claim soon, in my opinion.[/i]

[Hoopla]

Someone mind explaning to me why Hoops is town?

Because I am lovely.

[Hoopla]

steal

[Hoopla]

I'm flustered by the situation we're in, because there is a real chance of bouncy and Ken both being town, but we're sort of railroaded into making the next play based on this information. Protection and/or other roleblocking roles and even the possibility of the scumteam missing an action is a chance, but I feel like our hand is forced.

Ken, I'd like you to claim please.

[Hoopla]

I think it's probable he is scum, but I don't like being railroaded into decisions that can potentially mess you up on back-to-back days.

[Hoopla]

Earlder jumped from bandwagon to bandwagon, and this time he actually demonstrates that his reasons are irrelevant. A bandwagon started by Ellibereth, who is prone to making insane assumptions very early on without providing evidence. Did anyone notice he rules that HALF of the people in the game are town ON THE THIRD PAGE?! Im no genious, but does anyone really have such amazing skills to rule half the town in 3 pages?? How do townies get killed? Like this

Less blame, more claim. Get on with it.

[Hoopla]

If by "railroaded" you mean "forced", I fail to see how you are being "forced" to vote for Kenman, or how you were "forced" to vote for Midnight's Sorrow.

Towns should be making decisions together based on the best evidence we have, even though this evidence never guarentees us anything. Role/action based evidence is significantly more reliable than psuedo-psychological evidence, which is why we almost certainly have to use bouncy's information today. The kick in the teeth will be if Kenman flips town and we were pushed into this scenario without making a suboptimal play. Today's lynch feels like it needs to happen and we have no alternatives. When there are no alternatives, there is little information to be gleaned from wagon analysis/vote counts. The Midnight's Sorrow lynch wasn't forced because the 'evidence' was up for debate.

[Hoopla]

Hmmm. Hider seems like a pretty Incognito-type role.

[Hoopla]

Usually it ends up being hopless, since by the time people are asking for a claim, they are so convinced that whatever that person says is a lie.

Regardless, I am a

hider

. This is pretty much my first non-newbie game. So I am not 100%, how to effectively use my ability, but I hid behind Hoopla, because he seemed the most town to me.

Were you told if you were roleblocked?

[Hoopla]

camn, who are we lynching instead if Earl is Kenman's target?

[Hoopla]

Steamshovel!

Unvote, Vote Steamshovel

Perfect timing. Just before your name came up. I kind of agree with this wagon too, though.

What do you make of Kenman's claim?

[Hoopla]

Vote: Steamshovel

Your townieness is on the line here Elli.

Also, according to the Natural Role Resolution page on wiki, hiding resolves before blocking, so the mafia will find it difficult to manipulate the hider's results (if it's true).

[Hoopla]

I'm okay with a Mae wagon too, but wouldn't mind some more Steamshovel votes to compete with it. My scum-vibe from Elli has fallen away a little bit, but I'm nowhere near comfortable with declaring him as a town ally yet.

Roleblockers resolve after hiding, so that doesn't interfere with the tracker result, which makes it an 'either or' thing with Kenman and Earl. I have a heavy inclination that Kenman is the liar, and was probably coached into it by his scumteam. I'm not sure about bouncy's claim, but it's hard to see the scum motivation behind it.

I'm in favour of massclaim tomorrow, for what it's worth.

[Hoopla]

Earl... my strategy is sound. Kenman will take care of himself.

PLUS.. him flipping scum wouldn't confirm you in any way.
At all.
Ask Ellibereth. He knows about trashing your partner for the win

I really don't buy the double-PR fakeclaim hyper-bus theory. If Kenman flips scum, I'm pretty sure that mostly would clear Earl in my mind. I don't think they're the sort of players to attempt such a strategy. They'd need someone like Elli (or me I guess) coaching them to go down that path or even consider it.

[Hoopla]

If it's SPS or Mae, I'm with Mae. No competing vote here. Do you actually think he's scummy, or would you just like to see how the chips fall on the wagons?

I also think the huper bus theories are unlikely.

Why massclaim tomorrow over today? The scum have power to aim at today, just as they would tomorrow?

Kenman is probably scum. He won't die. Earl is a tracker and probably town. Bouncy I am not sold on, but is possibly town. I think the town probably has one or two more PR's left, so I wouldn't mind keeping them closed for tonight, as we might catch out scum attempting to off one of our PR's, rather than claiming and trying to set-up night actions, not knowing who is truthful and how scum can intervene. How'd that work out for you in Mini 956?

I kind of believe Elli here, and think he is the likeliest [other] scum on the Midnight wagon, but there is almost certainly one of it too. I don't have opinion either way on that, so give me a little while to read through the candidates for the 'off-the-wagon' scum.

[Hoopla]

That's a bit of a cheap shot - using one game is a bit unfair - I've pushed massclaims in about 5 games i can think of and in all except that one they were a major benefit to the town (or would have been if they'd gotten up - imagine what a massclaim would have done in communist mafia?)

I imagine early massclaim would have been supremely beneficial to scum, as we certainly wouldn't have claimed JOAT and tracker that early. We would have located the Vigilante and Doctor, and we had a roleblock, as well as an anti-doc kill to manipulate actions and get double kills. That would have killed the town.

The problem with early (D1/D2) massclaim is that you only have a couple more mislynches to test claims. Generally you will confirm a townie or two, or even a scum if you're lucky. Locking people into claims isn't worth sacrificing the power of independent PR's information gathering abilities. When you've got a network of claimed PR's you're working with, where some are false, some are true, you're trying to orchestrate things to prove one or two things usually. But you have no idea what roles scum have, and they can really change things. Really. I think you're underestimating how easy it is to use one night action to completely mess with the system.

I believe you'll have more luck with powerroles staying hidden, gathering information on their own, less likely to be prone to scum manipulation and then claiming the information when they have something worthwhile. Every night PR's stay hidden, the more information builds up and characterises your play. Fakeclaiming anything other than vanilla is very difficult as scum later in the game. I'm skeptical of town's abilities to logically process so much information in an early massclaim and make optimal decisions.

[Hoopla]

Good mods will prevent town's ability to break a game with massclaim. Incognito is a good mod. I feel like this discussion is best served until after the game, because tomorrow is the minimum time I will massclaim.

[Hoopla]

Of there's nothing in my ISO if when the activity happens everybody has said what I wanted to say anyway.

Camn, remember Lovers? Do you really want to turn this into lovers again?

That's dumb. Don't be dumb. Don't make threats that reference your crap games as town, because if we are to assume this is your town playstyle, then you can get away with it as scum too. Start posting or replace out.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla - it's relevent to the game now - I'm not just theory discussing for the hell of it. I get that you're not into a massclaim now, but it's good to discuss. And the point of a massclaim isn't just to break the game, that's what I'm trying to say. It's to severly cut down on the range of fakes and explanations scum can come up with by the end of the game.

Sure. But I have yet to see evidence or any crystalline logic that shows towns consistently win/benefit from early massclaims. Locking scum into claims is fine and dandy, but if they all claim vanilla, or one powerrole, the scum can easily pick off the most dangerous threat that night, and muck with another's results if they have any sort of additional power. It might have came off a couple of times, but you're gambling on confirming innocents/scum early, because town PR life (and overall power) is reduced significantly.

You're still in the boat with outed power, there is a minority trying to stop/trick you, yet you need to all work together and decide who to kill. But the outlook of the game changes and role information/actions will take precedence as the prime lynching factor, and the game will come down to whoever can plan/figure out the logic puzzle easiest. Scum have a distinct advantage here as they generally have other powers to predict the course of the game easier, whereas town can only speculate what can be messed with and who is truthful.

It does cut down the range of fakes, and massclaims are good for catching scum claiming power, but what do you think would happen if all the scum claimed vanilla? The three town PR's will be sitting there - one neutralised by scum power, one killed. What are you going to do the next day?

[Hoopla]

Massclaims work really well in high density PR games, but if half or more of the game is vanilla, it doesn't seem productive as there is too much hiding space for scum.

[Hoopla]

I'll support massclaim tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

Well....it works.
Also, in my experience, people who attack the method is usually scum but my exp. is kinda limitted so far.

And you know that it works how?

I don't deny that there's a real effect underlying the notion, but I don't think it's a particularly strong one. And there's a tendency for people to dabble in fallacious probabilistic reasoning where they fail to take into account that if 4 of the 5 wagonners look townie, then that raises the likelihood that there isn't scum on the wagon considerably. And if there are two things I can't stand, it's mohawks and fallacious probabilistic reasoning (just kidding, I don't really mind mohawks all that much).

It isn't fallacious reasoning - as far as psychological tells, it's quite efficient. Many scum players generally do have a subconcious bias toward distancing in wagon opinion and position. I've played/read a quite a lot of Mini's (mostly Normals), and it's a very rare circumstance for all three scum to be on the lynch wagon, and it's even rarer for all three to be off it. Unless scum deliberately set out to counter this specific tell, it will very rarely happen on it's own, because most scum players are generally

more

wary of being linked to partners via buddying tells, which is more commonly used than this tell. Block-voting and such tactics isn't always a bad idea as scum, but if wagon analysis doesn't get used, then you'll be caught out via buddying tells (even though most players that use these association tells suck at it), and won't reap any rewards of being in unlikely positions on lynches compared to your buddies.

The '2 off, 1 on' (and such variants) isn't a commonly enough used tell for scum teams to plan their play around. The more common a tell becomes, the less accurate is becomes as scum are likely to counter it. It doesn't mean all obscure tells are more accurate (there are a lot of poorly reasoned tells out there), but well-reasoned tells that scum don't expect are likelier to produce results because scum haven't preempted it. I deem this tell valid enough to be likelier than random.