Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World


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Post Post #68 (isolation #0) » Fri Apr 16, 2010 5:15 pm

Post by manho »

##vote: serial
for taking me down from the 1st to the 7th, and also win the tie.

why are prana and sorasgoof wagoned?
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Post Post #69 (isolation #1) » Fri Apr 16, 2010 5:19 pm

Post by manho »

why is massclaim useful in this game? i think the scums can just claim whatever they get, so we can't find scums by massclaiming.
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Post Post #72 (isolation #2) » Fri Apr 16, 2010 7:28 pm

Post by manho »

PranaDevil wrote:Incidentally, for the record, in case people want to know why I said we either have a stupid townie, or clever scum, is I went for Neighborizor.

If you have a brain you'll work it out, if you haven't, the town is doomed anyway.
i think i have a brain, and i think you are implying a stupid townie or a clever scum above you, which are the top 5 in the list, has picked neighborizer. but why did you pick neighborizer if you think only a stupid townie or clever scum will do it? are you a stupid townie or a clever scum? i think you are the later one.

##unvote,
##vote: prana
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Post Post #73 (isolation #3) » Fri Apr 16, 2010 7:31 pm

Post by manho »

after a second thought, prana is more likely a stupid townie.

##unvote
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Post Post #80 (isolation #4) » Sat Apr 17, 2010 4:53 am

Post by manho »

Parama wrote:
PranaDevil wrote:Also why are your last four posts all over the place? You go from wondering why I'm wagoned, to voting for me, to unvoting me again, with sod all in between.
'cause he's scum.
I called him as scum before he even posted - glad to see my suspicions are correct!
What manho has done thus far:
1. RVS vote without reading the thread ("why are prana and sorasgoof wagoned?")
2. Questioning the usefulness of massclaim - trying to say it's a bad idea
3. Wagon vote + misrep of Prana
4. Ad hom reason to unvote now that he realizes the Prana wagon died before he hopped on it.

Confirm vote: manho
what's wrong with my 4 posts?
1. i've read the thread, but i don't see the reason behind the 2 wagons.
2. i really don't see the point behind a massclaim. maybe you guys have experience from previous games, but you still need to convince me.
3. that's not a wagon vote and not a misrep. he is calling someone stupid for picking neighbourizer but he pick it also. it really doesn't make sence. so i go for clever scum then.
4. that's not an ad hom. a clever scum should have recognise that that post doesn't make sence, so i unvoted. call it wifom.
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Post Post #81 (isolation #5) » Sat Apr 17, 2010 4:59 am

Post by manho »

PranaDevil wrote:
dramonic wrote:I can understand the clever scum part, but the idiot townie doesn't really cut it for me. Why would someone higher than you be an idiot for picking neighbour and you not be for doing the exact same thing?
Exactly.
exactly what?

dramonic is asking why you are not an idiot townie or clever scum to pick neighbourizer. and "exactly" is not a proper answer for that.
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Post Post #82 (isolation #6) » Sat Apr 17, 2010 5:00 am

Post by manho »

dramonic wrote:
manho wrote:i think i have a brain, and i think you are implying a stupid townie or a clever scum above you, which are the top 5 in the list [...]
Wrong list Manho.
:oops:
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Post Post #124 (isolation #7) » Sat Apr 17, 2010 9:06 pm

Post by manho »

i still don't get the point of massclaiming. scum don't need to fake claim, and they can take a "pro-town" role as it reduce the power of the town. and a townie can also take a "scummy" role such as a rediretor or vig, as they are too dangerous a role for the mafia team.

and i also don't see the reason for the wagon on me. parama has said something about my first 4 posts, but i've also explained them.
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Post Post #125 (isolation #8) » Sat Apr 17, 2010 9:08 pm

Post by manho »

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 12


Dramonic
- 2 - Ellibereth, mb53 - (L-10)
manho
- 4 - PranaDevil, Budja, Pomegranate, Parama - (L-8)
Pomegranate
- 1 - Hoopla - (L-11)
PranaDevil
- 3 - Dramonic, Socrates, Faraday - (L-9)
sorasgoof
- 4 - Fate, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, Porkens, CryMeARiver - (L-8)

Players not voting:12keyblade, DrippingGoofball, manho, Sando, SerialClergyman, sorasgoof, Zang, Zoiaum


@mod, i think i've unvoted


but nevermind,
##unvote
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Post Post #140 (isolation #9) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 12:39 am

Post by manho »

i got it fate. scum will defintely lie if they got a "scummy role", as they can't use that role to do anti-town things.

another example is that claimed vig can't kill a pro-town player. and i think the vig kills are pretty under control by the town. all we need to worry is a hidden redirector, or scum claimed to be redirected.

so a massclaim effectively takes away all scum's "scummy" role.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #10) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 12:44 am

Post by manho »

i would definately pick vig if i'm on the top, as a scum vig is too dangerous. but the scum vig can't kill everyone they want. that should be planned by the town on first hand.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #11) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 12:48 am

Post by manho »

a scum redirector is actually more powerful than 2 every-other-night-vig. as the redirector can redirect both vig kills and get an extra kills every night.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #12) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 2:08 am

Post by manho »

PranaDevil wrote:I'm Prana.

and people are honestly willing to lynch me for using my head, absolutely amazing.

A prize pillock is basically an idiot.

Incidentally, for the record, in case people want to know why I said we either have a stupid townie, or clever scum, is I went for Neighborizor.

If you have a brain you'll work it out, if you haven't, the town is doomed anyway.
i really don't know what you are trying to say then. explain it clearly to someone like me who have no brain please.
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Post Post #154 (isolation #13) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 2:48 am

Post by manho »

PranaDevil wrote:No Zang, no claiming.

and manho, read the OP in the sign up thread.
i've read through that post for 3 times, but i still can't get it. maybe i really have no brain.
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Post Post #156 (isolation #14) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 2:58 am

Post by manho »

tbh, i really can't see your reason behind the vote.
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Post Post #158 (isolation #15) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:02 am

Post by manho »

back to the mass claim, i think we should do it day 1. or the scum janitor will use his power night 1, and use the victim's role as his fakeclaim, if possible. that ruins the whole points behind the mass claim.
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Post Post #160 (isolation #16) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:35 am

Post by manho »

Parama wrote:
PranaDevil wrote:Also why are your last four posts all over the place? You go from wondering why I'm wagoned, to voting for me, to unvoting me again, with sod all in between.
'cause he's scum.
I called him as scum before he even posted - glad to see my suspicions are correct!
What manho has done thus far:
1. RVS vote without reading the thread ("why are prana and sorasgoof wagoned?")
there are no such reasons in the thread, so you can't prove that i'm not reading the thread. and even a RVS vote without reading the thread is not a scum tell.
2. Questioning the usefulness of massclaim - trying to say it's a bad idea
that's a misrep. and questioning such an issue is actually pro-town as it arouse discussion.
3. Wagon vote + misrep of Prana
so can you tell me prana's meaning of that post? i still can't get it and prana didn't seem like telling me. so why am i scummy for asking for that clarification?
4. Ad hom reason to unvote now that he realizes the Prana wagon died before he hopped on it.
that's not an ad hom. and the later part of this quote is just a wild guess. you can add in a scum motivation on almost every post in a mafia game.
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Post Post #161 (isolation #17) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:46 am

Post by manho »

PranaDevil wrote:There's nothing in the janitor role that states the janitor will get to know the person's role either. Thereby negating that reason to push for a mass claim that will wipe out some of our exceptionally useful roles early on.
i've been so used to those closed game in another forum where all night-killed players' role are known by scum only. i didn't realise that.
Plus, if scum do have the vigs, that means 2 kills on night 1, and night 2, and if they have the jailkeeper too, it would mean it could prevent other pro-town roles from working.
scum-vig can only make the kill approved by the town, and jailkeeper can only use the power on scummy player, approved by town also, if we are going to have a massclaim. so scums really don't have those additional power if we have the massclaim day 1.
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Post Post #169 (isolation #18) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 5:09 am

Post by manho »

Parama wrote:
manho wrote:
Parama wrote: What manho has done thus far:
1. RVS vote without reading the thread ("why are prana and sorasgoof wagoned?")
there are no such reasons in the thread, so you can't prove that i'm not reading the thread. and even a RVS vote without reading the thread is not a scum tell.
There were most certainly reasons in-thread and even some in the pre-game thread. And not reading the thread while still posting an RVS vote... well, what if RVS had ended? What would your vote look like then?
i admit to have only skim through the thread, and want to ask for a short summary on their wagon. but it isn't a scum tell. why are scum more likely to cast a random vote without reading the thread?
Parama wrote:
manho wrote:
Parama wrote:2. Questioning the usefulness of massclaim - trying to say it's a bad idea
that's a misrep. and questioning such an issue is actually pro-town as it arouse discussion.
It's not a misrep since it's what you implied even if you didn't say it.
why is "trying to say a massclaim is a bad idea" a scum tell? and questioning such an issue is actually pro-town as it arouse discussion.
Parama wrote:
manho wrote:
Parama wrote:3. Wagon vote + misrep of Prana
so can you tell me prana's meaning of that post? i still can't get it and prana didn't seem like telling me. so why am i scummy for asking for that clarification?
Your post was just complete and total misrep, don't deny it.
if you know it is a misrep, then you should know prana's original meaning. so tell me what prana mean in that post.
Parama wrote:
manho wrote:
Parama wrote:4. Ad hom reason to unvote now that he realizes the Prana wagon died before he hopped on it.
that's not an ad hom. and the later part of this quote is just a wild guess. you can add in a scum motivation on almost every post in a mafia game.
"prana is more likely a stupid townie" <--- attacking the player themself, thus ad hom, though it's a weird reverse thing where you used it to unvote. But that's really not a good reason to unvote - it just looks like jumping off a wagon after realizing it had broken down.
an ad hom is to disprove someone's claim by attacking that person himself. i attacked prana for being a stupid townie, but i didn't say his claim is wrong. assuming my interputation, which's in my 4th post, is right, then prana claim that a player picking neighborizer is either stupid townie or clever scum. i think that he's not a clever player, thus not a clever scum, thus a stupid townie by deduction.
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Post Post #171 (isolation #19) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 5:10 am

Post by manho »

Hoopla wrote:
Unvote, vote: Parama
let me try...

care to explain?
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Post Post #194 (isolation #20) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 7:34 am

Post by manho »

Parama wrote:Also this vote is still better.
unvote, vote: manho
ok then, if you insist.
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Post Post #270 (isolation #21) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 4:26 pm

Post by manho »

i still think we should mass-claim today. one night actions give the scum much more chance to fakeclaim. say the mafia kills the cop, then they can just claim to have picked cop and is vanilla. say they have an extra kill and kills the tracker, then they can just claim to have picked tracker and is vanilla. say they have a role cop and know that someone above them is the doc, then they can just claim to have picked doc and is vanilla. and the janitor can cover a victim's role, which leaves the scum another possiblity to fakeclaim, as they can fakeclaim vanilla and claim that the victim has picked his role.

@crymeariver, that list is wrong. an extra scum kill is much worse than a cop less. a scum kill usually go through, as the number of player not protected is much more than the number of player protected. but a cop usually don't hit scum, as the number of scum is much less than the number of townie. you may get a scum for ,say, every 3 nights, but you will have an extra 1.5 townie down for a scum vig by that time. that's not a good ratio and even a worse one if the cop is not that lucky.

another point is that, as you have said, scums has less players, and they are more likely to have picked the "scummy" roles. so all we need to do is to have someone at the bottom of the list to pick the cop, tracker, watcher, doc, to ensure the town have those roles if the scums don't pick them.
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Post Post #289 (isolation #22) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:48 am

Post by manho »

Super Awesome Mega Pimp! wrote:I still want to know what forum you were talking about though.
art of problem solving. there is a subforum there just for mafia.
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Post Post #293 (isolation #23) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:05 am

Post by manho »

Fate wrote:SAMP makes a good point. MC today go for broke!
maybe we need to have a vote whether having massclaim today.

aye
for massclaiming today
nay
for massclaiming later/ not massclaiming

aye
is my vote. and i'll hold the vote count.

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(1): manho
nay
(0):

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11


vote please!!!
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Post Post #303 (isolation #24) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 5:57 am

Post by manho »

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(3): manho, Fate, Porkens
nay
(0):

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11


@dram, should i consider you vote "aye"?
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Post Post #306 (isolation #25) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 6:09 am

Post by manho »

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(4): manho, Fate, Porkens, dramonic
nay
(1): Hoopla

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11


i've changed the "nay" color to brown, as i think red is the mod's color.
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Post Post #327 (isolation #26) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 5:02 pm

Post by manho »

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(10): manho, Fate, Porkens, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53
nay
(4): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11
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Post Post #328 (isolation #27) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 5:08 pm

Post by manho »

EBWOP, missed the page 14 and pom's vote...

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(11): manho, Fate, Porkens, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53, Pomegranate
nay
(4): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11

Zang wrote:shouldn't it be 12 massclaim today and 12 to massclaim later?
no, we need a majority, that's 12, to massclaim today. so if we get 11 nay, then we can't get 12 aye, and we can't have the massclaim today, thus we massclaim later.
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Post Post #331 (isolation #28) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 5:28 pm

Post by manho »

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(11): manho, Fate, Porkens, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53, Pomegranate
nay
(5): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman,
Budja

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11
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Post Post #354 (isolation #29) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 4:41 am

Post by manho »

after a massclaim, the important town powers may be night killed, but it didn't nullify all the powers, as they will only die one per night, or won't if the doc target right. but the scum powers cannot be used, at all. that's the major difference.

one of our power role will die, and maybe 2 if they have the vig, no matter we claim or not. the scum just need to kill someone on top of the list and they will kill a decent role. so, power role dying is not a reason for not massclaiming today.
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Post Post #355 (isolation #30) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 4:43 am

Post by manho »

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(10): manho, Fate, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53, Pomegranate
nay
(7): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman, Budja, Socrates, Porkens

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11
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Post Post #361 (isolation #31) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 5:16 am

Post by manho »

Sando wrote:I don't see how scum can ever fake-claim outside of what they have chosen within the scum-group?
1. they can claim the role of the lynched person.
2. they can claim the role of the scum killed person.
3. they can claim the role of the vigged person.
4. they can claim the role investigated by a scum rolecop.
5. they can guess and claim a role that no one have picked.
6. they can guess and claim (failed) a role that someone above has picked.

1-4 can only happen if we don't massclaim today. 5-6 can happen in both case, but there are risks in them.
SerialClergyman wrote:So say 5 is watcher and 12 is even vig.
5 can claim even vig and 12 can claim vanilla for watcher and we'd have no idea that any of them were lying.
So the claim would seem to us to be 5 even vig and 12 vanilla.
Now apply this principle to ALL 5 SCUM and you can see the shitstorm of fakeclaims that are possible even on D1.
it always happens if we are massclaiming, no matter when, so it is not a reason for massclaiming later.
SerialClergyman wrote:doc - will never save a life (scum never target doc's target)
cop - has target chosen for them by group (worse imo than their own decision).
vigs - same
watcher - will never catch scum (scum kill non-watched target)
tracker - will never catch scum. (scum choose someone other than tracked member to kill)
bomb - will never kill scum (scum never NK him)
rolecop - nothing much changes.
jailkeeper - will never save a life or block a kill. (scum don't target jailed member or allow jailed member to make kill)

So while I agree that the scum players will be able to do less with their roles, I count 5 power roles that are rendered completely useless if town, and many more that are lessened.

Plus - the value of scum having lots of these roles is in denying town the roles. The value of stopping the scum using their roles effectively doesn't make up for loss of role power for the town.
we can let most of the power roles to choose to from a small set of players. it will make scum decision more difficult.
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Post Post #364 (isolation #32) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 5:49 am

Post by manho »

i think the main reason for massclaiming today is to lock the scum into their real roles, as the scum have more information later and thus more ways to fakeclaim. and locking the scum into their real roles help a lot as they can't use their powers to benefit themselves.

and to help you understand the last sentence of my last post, i'll give an example of directing the doc:

chance for doc to protect the
cop: 40%
tracker: 30%
watcher: 30%

and ask the jailkeeper to jailkeep the doc with a 20% chance. then, scum need to take their chance to hit those 4 roles. they should feel free to kill one of our less useful roles though.
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Post Post #368 (isolation #33) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:07 am

Post by manho »

PranaDevil wrote:I don't get the point of the percentages. Why not just say "doc protect one of these"?
that's just an example. and the percentage is regarding the fact that cop is more useful a role than the others.
Also, what's the point in a mass claim if not everyone's here anyway?
it is problem no matter when we massclaim, so it's not a reason for not massclaiming today.
More to the point... if the jailkeeper does protect the doc, we don't get any doc results regardless.
if no one is protecting the doc, scums can just kill the doc.
Mass claim would hurt the town right now anyway (plus, if scum did just claim Vanilla as they went for the "dead" role, then during the mass claim it would be obvious anyway)
if it hurt the town now, it would hurt the town no matter when we mass claim.
Also, claiming tomorrow or the day after would mean any watchers/trackers/etc. could easily say "Actually you can't be vanilla as you did this" or acknowledge that they did nothing that night.
by claiming now, vanilla-claiming scums will worry about the watchers and trackers and may not use the power, at all.
Some of that might not work 100% but neither will a mass claim now, I see more benefit for tomorrow than today. (After all, if loads of people all claim that they went after the roles that died today/tonight, it will be suspicious).
claiming the role that die is only an option, and scum will have much more such options if we do not massclaim today. by massclaiming today, the scum can only choose claiming his real role, or his buddy's role.
On top of that, scum appear to be getting a strong benefit from the mass claim, as others have said (and myself I think, or I thought it and I'm now mentioning it) as they can just work through picking off the town players.
if we are not massclaiming today, scum can still kill anyone on top of the list and will get a decent role killed.
Plus with 5 mafia, depending on their roles, they could quite easily lie to town.
then they could
more
easily lie to town if we don't massclaim today.
No mass claim today is much more beneficial in my eyes, and if we do go for a mass claim, it needs 100% of the players to participate, not just some, if even one person doesn't participate, it can throw it all out.
it is always a problem for every massclaim at any time for any game.
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Post Post #369 (isolation #34) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:10 am

Post by manho »

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(10): manho, Fate, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53, Pomegranate
nay
(8): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman, Budja, Socrates, Porkens, Parama

Not voting (4): Ellibereth, DrippingGoofball, Zoiaum, 12keyblade

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11
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Post Post #391 (isolation #35) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 4:03 pm

Post by manho »

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(10): manho, Fate, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53, Pomegranate
nay
(9): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman, Budja, Socrates, Porkens, Parama, 12Keyblade

Not voting (4): Ellibereth, DrippingGoofball, Zoiaum

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11

12Keyblade wrote:
Nay


IMO, town power roles will be able to get enough info tonite that we might be able to verify scum fakeclaims tomorrow. (Scum: I claim nilla! Tracker: LIES)
say, you are the tracker, and you think A is scum. you will track A night 1 no matter when we massclaim, and no matter what he has claimed. if A has claimed vanilla in day 1 massclaim, and you tracked A night 1 that he is targetting someone else. then you can still say A was lying. there is no big difference.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #36) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:35 am

Post by manho »

will iso sorasgoof soon.
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Post Post #547 (isolation #37) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:01 pm

Post by manho »

Socrates wrote:God damn I wish I was a dayvig.

This game needs a flip and find some focus.

Just so people don't forget: FATE IS SCUM!

When is deadline?
maybe we just need a massclaim and find some focus.
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Post Post #548 (isolation #38) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:02 pm

Post by manho »

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(10): manho, Fate, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53, Pomegranate
nay
(9): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman, Budja, Socrates, Porkens, Parama, 12Keyblade

Not voting (4): Ellibereth, DrippingGoofball, Zoiaum

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11
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Post Post #550 (isolation #39) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:13 pm

Post by manho »

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 12


Dramonic
- 1 - Ellibereth - (L-11)
Fate
- 1 - Sando - (L-11)
Hoopla
- 1 - Socrates - (L-11)
manho
- 1 - Parama - (L-11)
Pomegranate
- 4 - Faraday, Hoopla, SerialClergyman, Porkens - (L-8)
sorasgoof
- 7 - Fate, Dramonic, PranaDevil, CryMeARiver, DrippingGoofball, Pomegranate, Super Awesome Mega Pimp! - (L-5)

Players not voting:12keyblade, Budja, manho, mb53, sorasgoof, Zang, Zoiaum

just ios'ed sorasgoof, and he is town.
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Post Post #551 (isolation #40) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:14 pm

Post by manho »

dramonic wrote:Numberfail
:oops:

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(10): manho, Fate, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53, Pomegranate
nay
(9): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman, Budja, Socrates, Porkens, Parama, 12Keyblade

Not voting (3): Ellibereth, DrippingGoofball, Zoiaum

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11
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Post Post #557 (isolation #41) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:21 pm

Post by manho »

fate is claiming role-related info that sorasgoof is scum, and i bet he will be asked to claim sooner or later. and with all the vanilla claim, lynched, killed, vigged person's flip, we will have already know more than a third of the role. it will be super easy for scum to fake claim then. so why not have a massclaim first, before asking fate to claim?
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Post Post #559 (isolation #42) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:24 pm

Post by manho »

Sando wrote:
Zang wrote:Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.
Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.
but town are more likely to be in any other spot than scum, as we have more town than scum. the point matters is that the top spot has a higher chance to be scum
than other spot
.
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Post Post #565 (isolation #43) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:33 pm

Post by manho »

P(scum|no one choosing their number)=1.55/(1.55+0.5+3.52)=0.28
P(scum)=5/22=0.23

so we are actually more likely to find scum in the top 5 spots than a random spot.
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Post Post #567 (isolation #44) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:36 pm

Post by manho »

i think the 3rd option is that Fate is scum and hoping to get the first spot town lynched.
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Post Post #569 (isolation #45) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:38 pm

Post by manho »

but why would a town-fate lie to get an unknown-sorasgoof lynched?
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Post Post #576 (isolation #46) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:27 pm

Post by manho »

Sando wrote:Nope, I did mean to multiply.

Each townie has a ~23.5% chance of noone else picking their number. As there are 17 townies, there will, on average, be 17x23.5% townies with noone picking their number. Do the same for scum and for mason, you get:

3.5 townies
0.5 masons
1.5 scum

A total of 5.5 people, on average, will have a solo-number, and therefor be ranked at the top.

Of these, 4 are pro-town, so make up ~72.5% of the top ranks, scum therefore make up 27.5%. So there are, when no rounding is done like I just did, 2.66 times as many town as scum in the solo ranks. Therefore town are 2.66 times as likely to get the top spot.
the maths is right, but you need to consider the chance for scum to be in the first spot to the chance of finding scum randomly.
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Post Post #578 (isolation #47) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:30 pm

Post by manho »

manho wrote:P(scum|no one choosing their number)=1.55/(1.55+0.5+3.52)=0.28
P(scum)=5/22=0.23

so we are actually more likely to find scum in the top 5 spots than a random spot.
we get a 28% chance to catch scum in the top 5 spots, which is higher than the 23% chance when we are considering all players.
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Post Post #579 (isolation #48) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:32 pm

Post by manho »

Sando wrote:I was merely pointing out that people were wrong in saying that the top spot is more likely to be scum than town.
who is saying that? i think i've missed it.
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Post Post #580 (isolation #49) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:34 pm

Post by manho »

Socrates wrote:Here's the plan: Fate goes "I GOTZ ROLE INFO LYNCH PLOX." Soras flips town. Fate goes "OH GEE I MESSED UP." Town goes "Oh you rascal, you, Fate! You're too crazy to actually be scum!" and muss his hair up "Why don't you go sit in the corner while the grown ups find the real scum!"

Seriously. That's what he has been doing this entire game.

And it has been working apparently. =_=
that's interesting.
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Post Post #617 (isolation #50) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:45 am

Post by manho »

Parama wrote:
manho wrote: just ios'ed sorasgoof, and he is town.
Parama wrote:.
Soras is scum.
Manho is scum. DGB doesn't understand why by DGB doesn't want to read a
Hey look! Manho calls soras town without providing any reason!
i think i should have said neutral instead. and i can't find reasons to vote sorasgoof when iso'ing him. but i think i'm fine with a sorasgoof lynch.

will iso pom soon.

@ALL, remember that the power roles need to send in night actions before the lynch, so don't hammer so soon.

@mod, can we change our night choices before the lynch?


if yes, i suggest all power role send in a backup choice first.
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Post Post #618 (isolation #51) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:57 am

Post by manho »

so why is pom scum?

and the top 2 in the draft are the top 2 wagon. i don't think it's a coincident, but scum should be behind it.

will look for that scum later.
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Post Post #619 (isolation #52) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 5:04 am

Post by manho »

the "massclaiming now?" vote count

aye
(10): manho, Fate, dramonic, Zang, sorasgoof, Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, CryMeARiver, Faraday, mb53, Pomegranate
nay
(9): Hoopla, PranaDevil, Sando, SerialClergyman, Budja, Socrates, Porkens, Parama, 12Keyblade

Not voting (3): Ellibereth, DrippingGoofball, Zoiaum

aye needed to massclaim today: 12
nay needed to massclaim later: 11


Ellibereth, DGB and Zoiaum should vote. i really don't want to see sorasgoof/pom claim before a mass claim. maybe that's the scum's plan, to get sorasgoof/pom claimed and then withdraw the lynch, and then have another option to fakeclaim.
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Post Post #793 (isolation #53) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 10:42 pm

Post by manho »

##vote: Porkens

that's L-1.

i think we should definitely slow down. i can't send in a night action. scum is taking advantage of the quicklynch as they KNOW who to target and they can send in their action way before the lynch. but town don't. we need to decide who is scum/town to choose their target.
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Post Post #794 (isolation #54) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 10:45 pm

Post by manho »

and to claim way before L-1 and a possible vig kill, as parama suggest, i'm the redirector. i take it simply to not let the scum team have it.
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Post Post #806 (isolation #55) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 2:44 am

Post by manho »

Hoopla wrote:Manho...

...Why worry about quicklynches in the same post as putting Porkens at L-1?
hoping to get a scum quickhammering it.
Hoopla wrote:
manho wrote:and to claim way before L-1 and a possible vig kill, as parama suggest, i'm the redirector. i take it simply to not let the scum team have it.
Did you use it for anything last night?
i've planned to redirect parama to parama last night, but parama's quick hammer ruins it.
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Post Post #807 (isolation #56) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 2:54 am

Post by manho »

PranaDevil wrote:That's not "claiming before L-1" That's just claiming for the sake of claiming, you were in no danger of being lynched tonight manho, and even if you're vigged, that post helps us none.
at least the vig know who he is vigging.
Weren't you the one say we should mass claim so that roles aren't readily available for scum? Yet here you are blatantly giving scum a role they could claim below you now.
but no one seem like mass claiming now.
And like Hoopla says, did you use it for anything? If you did, on who and why? If you didn't, don't do so either.
i was planning redirecting parama to parama as i think she is scum and she has claimed vanilla. so it does no harm to the town powers and will kill a scum if she makes the kill. but i actually didn't as parama quickhammered before i can send in my night choice.
And of course... the whole worrying about quick lynches, when you're putting Porkens at L-1 yourself.
see my last post.
At least we've worked out who the vig should take out... manho is as good as blatant scum, and on the small offchance he's not, he's becoming a liability for town anyway.
that only count as 1 vote, maybe we need another vote count. i won't do it again as no one is listen to me.
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Post Post #810 (isolation #57) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:24 am

Post by manho »

Fate wrote:Manho don't call out your targets.

Lulz.

+Parama is town, so yeah.
of course i won't. and i really don't have enough time is decide who is scum yesterday.
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Post Post #811 (isolation #58) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:25 am

Post by manho »

should i propose the massclaim again?
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Post Post #812 (isolation #59) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:27 am

Post by manho »

manho wrote:should i propose the massclaim again?
it helps my decision a lot.
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Post Post #814 (isolation #60) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:40 am

Post by manho »

actually, my reason for suggestion the massclaim is to help me make my decision. i really don't want to redirect the vig to themselves.

but why is parama town? i can only see a scum who can't get the janitor and a scum quickhammering to give her team advantages.
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Post Post #816 (isolation #61) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:59 am

Post by manho »

dramonic wrote:Parama is a male manho.
is it prana that is female?
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Post Post #819 (isolation #62) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 4:13 am

Post by manho »

PranaDevil wrote:
manho wrote:actually, my reason for suggestion the massclaim is to help me make my decision. i really don't want to redirect the vig to themselves.

but why is parama town? i can only see a scum who can't get the janitor and a scum quickhammering to give her team advantages.
Parama is town because I says he is.
...
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Post Post #821 (isolation #63) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 4:32 am

Post by manho »

Parama wrote:The arguments for Parama-town

1. I claimed instantaneously announcing my vanillaness and that scum have a janitor. I prompted the janitor to claim if they are town. Do you know what this means?
If the last scum alive is the janitor, everyone below me is clear.
this is the main reason why i'm not sure you are town. as a scum who picked janitor but didn't get it will can do the exact same thing. maybe a janitor claim will make you town, or a janitor power used will do so. but none of them has happened.
2. Look at my scumlist. There have already been 2 scum on it. Sure, I'd bus as scum, but there's no reason to put TWO buddies on a scumlist on D1
i've put 3 buddies on a scumlist.
3. My role PM

Manho wanted me to vig myself, I think. Lol.
how can i make you vig yourself if you are telling the truth?
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Post Post #824 (isolation #64) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:19 am

Post by manho »

i would like to target a vanilla to themself as it will not neglect a potential power role, such as making a cop investigating himself, or even worse a town-vig killing himself. and if i get it right and target the scum that make the kill, he will kill himself.

and what is the use asking me to direct someone to SAMP? you can just ask the vig to kill him or ask a cop to investigate him. the most effective way to use my power is to kill the scum who is making the kill.
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Post Post #825 (isolation #65) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:21 am

Post by manho »

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 10


Porkens
- 8 -
Pomegranate
,
Parama
,
Socrates
,
Super Awesome Mega Pimp!
,
PranaDevil
,
Ellibereth
,
mb53
,
manho
- (L-2)

Players not voting:12keyblade, CryMeARiver, Dramonic, DrippingGoofball, Faraday, Fate, Hoopla, Porkens, Sando, Zang, Zoiaum

PranaDevil wrote:Although the fact Manho said that scum could know the role if they had the janitor, and I pointed out that the role stated they couldn't, only for him to do so once again (If people want I'll dig out the posts in question)... makes me think Manho is our scum Janitor.
i've already admitted i'm wrong. and when did i said "scum could know the role if they had the janitor" again?
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Post Post #826 (isolation #66) » Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:28 am

Post by manho »

Parama wrote:Manho, argument 1 is all I really need. If I was scum and claimed janitor, then I would know town has a janitor. I prompted the janitor to claim if they were town. So obviously janitor is scum. And scum usually don't both pick the same role.
i need to confirm this.

@janitor, claim yourself.
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Post Post #1532 (isolation #67) » Tue May 04, 2010 4:34 am

Post by manho »

Sando wrote:Pom was pretty much psychic as well, picking both vigs on their kill night. Also lucky that she didn't target me onto Manho when he died :P
you target me also? i get a mango from zang that day. so there were 3 people targetting me at the same time.

1.) Did you like the game?
2.) Did you let the setup?
3.) What would you keep?
4.) What would you change?

1. yes, as i haven't won a game for a long time. but no, as it is too lopsided and i'm really bad at scum-hunting.
2. yes, the draft system is excellent. people getting vanilla can't blame the mod. i really like the redirector role. as it can instant kill a scum, if i have the skill of Pom. Pom as the redirector would have made 2 scums suicided.
3. the 2 vigs, tracker, watcher, gunsmith, weak doc, neighborizer, and of course the redirector.
4. i would drop the cop, as it is too strong a town pr, unless you add in a godfather or a framer as a counter balance. i would also drop the mason, or the weak doc, as, obviously, they are too strong. maybe you should try adding in a SK next time.

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