Newbie Data

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Newbie Data

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:06 pm

Post by kunkstar7 »

Newbie Data!

Welcome to my total waste of time! After chronicling the lynches, setup type, winner, of every Newbie Game from 1 to 900, I have put together these pieces of information for use by whomever for whatever purpose it may serve. Like proving to new players that no lynch does not win games. So a small table of contents:

I. Overall Stats
II. F11 Setup
III. C9
IV. Pie E7
V. Original Newbie Setup
VI. Miscellaneous / Credits

Data that will be shown will include win percentages for Town and Mafia Factions, the percentages each setup has occurred(for F11 and C9 setups), Day 1 lynches and their effect on win percentages for each faction, and maybe other stuff I have forgotten. So hope you enjoy!



I. Overall Newbie Data

Total GamesMafia WinsMafia Win %Town WinsTown Win %
86754362.6332437.37

Currently 48 abandoned* or non-standard** games have been recorded.

*Games that ended in a draw are considered abandoned.
**For the purpose of this project, non-standard games are games played with a setup that is not one of F11, C9 Variant, or the Original Newbie Setup.


Day One Lynch Data

D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie54964.5938116869.430.6
Doctor505.8834166832
Cop505.884378614
Goon15418.12559935.7164.29
Roleblocker293.4162320.6979.31
No Lynch182.1215383.3316.67


II. F11 Setup

The F11 setup is the current game format used in Newbie games. Newbie Games are Semi-Open, wherein the actual game setup is randomly chosen from one of four possible setups as detailed below:
  • [A] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies
    2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townies
    [C] 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 5 Townies
    [D] 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies



Overall Win Percentage/Record of F11 Setup


GamesMafia WinsMafia Win %Town WinsTown Win %
32119961.99%12238.01%



Variant Win Percentages and Occurrence Rate


Variant*AppearancesMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %Occurrence %
A82532964.6335.3725.55
B82503260.9839.0225.55
C85473855.2944.7126.48
D72492368.0631.9422.43

*Corresponds to lettered list of setup variants above.


Day One Lynch Data

D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie23272.271537965.9534.05
Doctor103.12737030
Cop134.0512192.317.69
Roleblocker226.8561627.2772.73
Goon4112.77182343.956.1
No Lynch30.93301000





A. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies


D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie5769.51391868.4228.07
Doctor**000000
Cop56.1501000
Roleblocker**000000
Goon1923.1781142.1157.89
No Lynch11.22101000

**Doesn't exist in specified variant.


B. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townies

D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie6073.1739216535
Doctor44.88317525
Cop**000000
Roleblocker**000000
Goon1720.7371041.1858.82
No Lynch11.22101000

**Doesn't exist in specified variant.



C. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 5 Townies

D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie5868.24332556.943.1
Doctor67.064266.6733.33
Cop89.417187.512.5
Roleblocker1011.76282080
Goon33.531233.3366.67
No Lynch000000



D. 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies

D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie5779.17421573.6826.32
Doctor**000000
Cop**000000
Roleblocker1216.674833.3366.67
Goon22.78201000
No Lynch11.39101000

**Doesn't exist in specified variant.
Last edited by kunkstar7 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:07 pm

Post by kunkstar7 »

III. C9 Setup

The C9 setup is a previously used Newbie setup. C9 is a 7-player setup and like F11, is Semi-Open, and includes four variants:
  • [CA] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 4 Townies
    [CB] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 4 Townies
    [CC] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 3 Townies
    [CD] 2 Mafia Goons, 5 Townies


Overall Win Percentage/Record of C9 Setup


Total GamesMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
38826512368.331.7


Variant Win Percentages and Occurrence Rate

Variant*AppearancesMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %Occurrence %
CA114823271.9328.0729.38
CB85572867.0632.9421.91
CC124754960.4839.5231.96
CD65511478.4621.5416.75

*Corresponds to lettered list of setup variants above.


Day One Lynch Data

D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie24262.371845876.0323.97
Doctor256.441877228
Cop276.9622581.4818.52
Goon8421.65345040.4859.52
No Lynch102.58828020





CA. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 4 Townies


D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie7263.16561677.7822.22
Doctor**000000
Cop119.6510190.919.09
Goon2723.68131448.1551.85
No Lynch43.51317525


CB. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 4 Townies


D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie5058.8237137426
Doctor1315.2910376.9223.08
Cop**000000
Goon1922.3581142.1157.89
No Lynch33.532166.6733.33


CC. 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 3 Townies


D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie7358.87472664.3835.62
Doctor129.688466.6733.33
Cop1612.91247525
Goon2116.9461528.5771.43
No Lynch21.61201000


CD. 2 Mafia Goons, 5 Townies


D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie4772.3144393.626.38
Doctor**000000
Cop**000000
Goon1726.1571041.1858.82
No Lynch11.54101000


IV. Pie E7 Setup

Pie E7 is a 7 player setup designed to address the deficiencies in the C9 setup. The setup consists of:

[P] 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 3 Townies


Overall Win Percentage/Record of Pie E7 Setup


Total GamesMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
4022185545


Day One Lynch Data

D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie184512666.6733.33
Doctor512.5326040
Cop37.5301000
Goon615335050
Roleblocker717.5070100
No Lynch12.5101000






V. Original Newbie Setup

The original setup is a 7 player setup. The setup consists of:

[O] 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 3 Townies


Overall Win Percentage/Record of Original Newbie Setup


Total GamesMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
101475446.5353.47


Day One Lynch Data

D1 LynchOccurrencesPercentageMafia WinsTown WinsMafia Win %Town Win %
Vanilla Townie5756.44322556.1443.86
Doctor109.9646040
Cop76.936185.7114.29
Goon2322.770230100
No Lynch43.96317525






VI. Misc/Credits


First, I want to thank AGar for starting this project. The original can be found here.
My personal comments:
The system has changed quite a bit since the beginning. Mostly in regards to how its played and modding. In the first page of Newbie games, I think only one game broke more than 10 pages, whereas today 10 pages is considered normal...for just one day. Also games have progressed into a much more analytical game. Games are longer, people are more serious. It all depends on your perspective whether this is a positive or negative progression. The modding has come quite a way. There were several games that were abandoned due to the mod flaking out. The quality of moderators has most definitely improved.

Regarding the data, I don't ever want to hear someone argue for a no-lynch on day one in a newbie again :P. With only a ~17% win rate, that's definitely not the way to go, among other reasons. Not surprisingly, whenever goons or a roleblocker were lynched day one, it slanted the win percentage to town. This is even more significant in the roleblocker situation. Its kind of crazy how poorly towns did when their cop was killed day one.

Here is the link to my spreadsheet. Unfortunately Google Docs totally messes with the formatting of rows/columns so not everything is as pretty as it is in the original. Yet everything is there, labelled nicely for easy understanding.
Last edited by kunkstar7 on Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:45 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:18 pm

Post by animorpherv1 »

/in b4 pie saying he is awseome and stuff.

Comparing Pie E7 to either setup, less games are played. More than 2x for Original and more than 21x in F11. I think that, untill Pie E7 is played at least 60 more times, it doesn't have enough data, compared to the others.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:52 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Yeah, the biggest problem with Pie E7 is that it gets unwinnable for the Mafia if the Town happens to hit the Roleblocker D1 (which is essentially blind luck in a Day Start game). I think someone worked out an actual optimal strategy for that, but I don't recall it offhand. Faster game, but more random; I think F11 provides enough cover for a lone Goon to pull it out, at least occasionally.
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 2:04 pm

Post by SensFan »

Mr. Flay wrote:Yeah, the biggest problem with Pie E7 is that it gets unwinnable for the Mafia if the Town happens to hit the Roleblocker D1 (which is essentially blind luck in a Day Start game). I think someone worked out an actual optimal strategy for that, but I don't recall it offhand. Faster game, but more random; I think F11 provides enough cover for a lone Goon to pull it out, at least occasionally.
Even in F11, if the RB is lynched D1, the game is very close to over. If he tries to fakeclaim Cop then gets countered, the Town wins.
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 2:36 pm

Post by Parama »

Alternate title: A guide to why No Lynching D1 is always a bad idea.
Just look at those statistics.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 2:53 pm

Post by bouncy.bouncy »

Why only day 1? jw
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:00 pm

Post by kunkstar7 »

For one it, along with day 2, are the only two days that occur consistently throughout every game. Secondly, I haven't had the chance to get around to much more than what I have posted, I only completed the recording yesterday. The next thing on my list is to see what the effects are of which day the first mafia is killed. Maybe a similar analysis of the Day One lynches should be done on Night One kills? If you have any other ideas just run them by me.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:33 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Sure. How many times did scum hit a Power Role (relative to the chance of a power role being in that game) would be an interesting statistic. I don't think it'll vary much from random chance, but I might be wrong.

Also, since I didn't say it explicitly earlier, nice work kunkstar!
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:34 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

SensFan wrote:
Mr. Flay wrote:Yeah, the biggest problem with Pie E7 is that it gets unwinnable for the Mafia if the Town happens to hit the Roleblocker D1 (which is essentially blind luck in a Day Start game). I think someone worked out an actual optimal strategy for that, but I don't recall it offhand. Faster game, but more random; I think F11 provides enough cover for a lone Goon to pull it out, at least occasionally.
Even in F11, if the RB is lynched D1, the game is very close to over. If he tries to fakeclaim Cop then gets countered, the Town wins.
Yeah, but 20% chance (while slim) is better than 0%. I was in one of those early Newbie Games where there was literally NO way for me to win unless the Cop f*cked up; it was extremely demoralizing.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:35 pm

Post by zoraster »

Wow. There's a pretty good chance that mods aren't doing their setups randomly in the current setup though it's not really not provable to a statistically significant level, but mods were terrible about it in C9.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:52 pm

Post by Thok »

Mr. Flay wrote:Sure. How many times did scum hit a Power Role (relative to the chance of a power role being in that game) would be an interesting statistic. I don't think it'll vary much from random chance, but I might be wrong.
I think you're wrong, mainly because I think IC scum are better than average at picking up scum tells and newbie vanilla are much worse than average at dropping vanilla tells.
Wow. There's a pretty good chance that mods aren't doing their setups randomly in the current setup though it's not really not provable to a statistically significant level, but mods were terrible about it in C9.
Not really. 82/82/85/72 is fairly balanced, and you would expect some random drift from 81/80/80/80. The C9 numbers are clearly out of whack, however.
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:34 pm

Post by mith »

You'd expect some random drift, but it's still a bit suspect that the no-power-roles setup is the one that keeps coming up low, given the C9 trend. At least we're doing a better job there.
Flay wrote:I think someone worked out an actual optimal strategy for that, but I don't recall it offhand. Faster game, but more random; I think F11 provides enough cover for a lone Goon to pull it out, at least occasionally.
Eh. The main difference in F11 is that half the time the setup won't have power roles, so the Goon has a chance in the resulting Vanilla game. In the setup with both power roles, it's probably a little worse for the Goon going into Night (less chance of hitting the Cop, one extra mislynch for the town). It
feels
a little better, though, because in the Pie E7 worst case, town has a forced win (D1 RB lynch, Cop and Doc both survive the night), while in F11 the scum still has some faint hope (I think). The extra townies hurt the town in that specific scenario (but overall, the EV is better for the town entering N1, if they have both power roles).

All that said, I've never had a problem with that aspect of Pie E7. The value of the RB means that the scum should play to make sure the RB stays alive, which potentially gives more grouping-tells, which makes for a better game. If the town hits the RB D1, it's because the scum played poorly (or because the town played really well); I'd guess the fact that more RBs were lynched than Goons on D1 is a result of the small sample size.

SensFan: It's worth noting that the Goon can't fake claim in F11 either, *even if there are no power roles* (again in the case where the RB was lynched D1), because no Doc will claim and the town will realize they aren't in the both-power-roles setup. (Correct play in F11 is for the Cop to come out D2, if there is one, and then for the Doc to come out D3, if still alive. This ensures that the Cop survives to the endgame, and confirms the Doc even if the Cop hasn't investigated him, and catches lying scum if he fakes in a no-power-role setup.)
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:37 pm

Post by zoraster »

Thok wrote:
Mr. Flay wrote:Sure. How many times did scum hit a Power Role (relative to the chance of a power role being in that game) would be an interesting statistic. I don't think it'll vary much from random chance, but I might be wrong.
I think you're wrong, mainly because I think IC scum are better than average at picking up scum tells and newbie vanilla are much worse than average at dropping vanilla tells.
Wow. There's a pretty good chance that mods aren't doing their setups randomly in the current setup though it's not really not provable to a statistically significant level, but mods were terrible about it in C9.
Not really. 82/82/85/72 is fairly balanced, and you would expect some random drift from 81/80/80/80. The C9 numbers are clearly out of whack, however.
I just did the numbers really quickly, and there's about a 15% chance that D would be 72 or fewer if random. So, eh. Not really conclusive or anything, but it's not nothing either. When paired with the already noted tendency that is nearly 100% certain in C9 for mods to avoid vanilla games, I think it's very likely it's going on in F11.

Why not just get the newbie list mod to do the selection? sign up for a newbie game and when he gives the go-ahead, he also tells the mod which setup to run.

I think I like Pie E7 though.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:57 pm

Post by mith »

Why not just get the newbie list mod to do the selection?
We did this for a little while... it's a bit of additional work for the List Mod, though, and we shouldn't
need
to do it. (And it's clear with F11 that we have hammered home the "do it randomly" point enough that very few, if any, mods are "cheating", whereas with C9 it was a pretty significant problem. I don't have any reason to think it's affecting games.)

(It's worth noting for historical reasons that the disparity in the C9 numbers was at least partly due to mods using different methods for choosing the roles, rather than mods "rerolling" when they hit the vanilla setup. I remember someone, due to confusion over what "C9" stood for, randomized the setup by choosing 5 pro-town roles out of the 7 "available" roles - 1 Cop, 1 Doc, 5 Townies - and the probability of getting the vanilla setup doing it that way is only 1/21. Others did a 1/6 - 1/3 - 1/3 - 1/6 split, rather than 1/4 - 1/4 - 1/4 - 1/4. But I think we did have a few own up to throwing out the vanilla setup.)
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:01 pm

Post by mith »

(The obvious modification to make to F11 to improve the town win rate - and I'm sure it has been suggested before, either for F11 or C9 - is to throw out the vanilla setup, of course. Mafia know if they are in a 2 power role setup, which makes it Pie E7+2, and they can protect the RB accordingly; and they know if there's only 1 power role, but not which, preserving the "power role hunting" aspect - in order to fake claim more effectively, they need the real power role dead or outed or figured out.)
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:10 pm

Post by zoraster »

seems a reasonable solution, mith.
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:19 pm

Post by Elmo »

lol @ Town doing 2% better than random in F11-D and 1% worse than random in C9-D.

Nice job, imo. I'd be interested to see how cop deaths correlate with win rates.
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 1:25 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

mith wrote:You'd expect some random drift, but it's still a bit suspect that the no-power-roles setup is the one that keeps coming up low, given the C9 trend. At least we're doing a better job there.
IIRC from earlier analyses, we're actually doing better than when we started with F11 (and obviously better than with C9). I think we're always going to have some residual, if we're doing
current
selection right. A time-based analysis would prove me right or wrong...
Elmo wrote:I'd be interested to see how cop deaths correlate with win rates.
You mean Cop deaths after D1? It already drops Town chances to 7.7% or so... not sure how much more you'd learn, though what Town chances are after a N1 Cop death could be interesting.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 3:02 am

Post by iamausername »

It's weird how Roleblockers are being lynched D1 significantly
more
than Goons in the C & D setups.
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:06 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

iamausername wrote:It's weird how Roleblockers are being lynched D1 significantly
more
than Goons in the C & D setups.
Seriously. Somebody needs lessons in "how to protect your faction's PRs".
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:22 am

Post by mith »

Oh, wow, I had only looked at the
C9
Pie E7 lynch numbers. That's... surprising.
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 4:33 am

Post by Hoopla »

Mr. Flay wrote:
iamausername wrote:It's weird how Roleblockers are being lynched D1 significantly
more
than Goons in the C & D setups.
Seriously. Somebody needs lessons in "how to protect your faction's PRs".
Perhaps this is due to people playing roleblocker more conservatively/unnaturally, as their individual survival is more important to team success. The same thing can happen with town powerroles sometimes too - current meta seems to reward brazen, aggressive playstyles as pro-town which are traits more commonly associated with VT's.
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Post Post #23 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 5:02 am

Post by zoraster »

I imagine it'd be too burdensome to find out how often a cop, who survives to day 2, and has a guilty manages to get that guilty person lynched.

I say this because I think this number would be very useful.
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Post Post #24 (ISO) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 5:21 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

zoraster wrote:I imagine it'd be too burdensome to find out how often a cop, who survives to day 2, and has a guilty manages to get that guilty person lynched.
Without coming out as Cop? I expect the sample size is relatively small, but it'd be pretty awesome to see, I agree.

Hoopla: I hadn't considered that, mostly because I find Newbie Games to be pretty bad at applying site-meta. Not enough newbies know it, and few ICs really want to apply it with an iron fist (not sure about SEs). I'm happy to be wrong, and the sample size of games seems small enough to scan for trends (if kunkstar could link those 22, plus maybe the 7 Pie E7s).
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