Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World

[Sando]

My apologies, been a busy weekend and won't really have time till tomorrow. Just really checking in.

Forcing someone so low to claim and basically setting up the statement of 'wait for his fake-claim' is stupid. It's pretty much site meta that VTs never get saved, and someone so low is very likely to be VT. This looks a lot like:

1: Start wagon to force claim
2: Get the entirely expected VT response
3: 'Well guys, he claimed VT and we never don't lynch VT'

Also, arguing against a mass-claim and for a singular claim on D1 is pretty rediculous. There's no way to tell from the claim whether they're scum or town, and noone would be stupid enough to fake-claim I think.

I totally agree with Hoopla, you guys failed miserably to try and logically 'break' the game in pre-game, with a strategy that at best got us a minor advantage, and was never going to go close to best.

Giving Parama town-cred for claiming VT on a role that only scum would use is silly btw. It's what a townie should do if they got nilla'd from it, but it doesn't preclude scum in any way.

More tomorrow.

[Sando]

Ok, this seems way too obvious not to have been thought of, but after the signup thread, I'm no longer convinced that everyone would be able to tie their own shoe-laces...

How on earth does claiming on D2 compared to D1 change things for vig? How are they less locked in after having had 1 night to kill?

Basically, a D1 massclaim doesn't really seem to gain us anything over a D2, and gives scum an extra night to plan and kill the PRs.

[Sando]

Ok, this seems way too obvious not to have been thought of, but after the signup thread, I'm no longer convinced that everyone would be able to tie their own shoe-laces...

How on earth does claiming on D2 compared to D1 change things for vig? How are they less locked in after having had 1 night to kill?

Basically, a D1 massclaim doesn't really seem to gain us anything over a D2, and gives scum an extra night to plan and kill the PRs.

I agree, I think it would be best for us to claim day 1 or as soon as possible.

...I'm advocating the opposite of that

[Sando]

## Vote: Manho

How many times do we have to point out that massclaim is a bad idea. The only people actually providing reasoned arguments for or against happen to be those against.

For the record: Nay

Also, nice try with trying to get all the Nay'ers to use the mod's colour of red...

[Sando]

Sorry what question? You mean why did I choose 7 when I tend to think 5 or lower is the best option? That was because I was under the wrong impression of how the draft worked when I submitted my numbers. I realised later that the second number being chosen by someone else only matters if that person also chose the same first number.

Am I misreading the question?

Not so much throw-away snideness, I just think it's a dick thing to do, to be trying to get the people who disagree with you to do something against the rules. I don't think a town player would do it on purpose, I'm not convinced enough that it was on purpose to call scuminess on it.

[Sando]

Ok Ellie, but if we don't MC today can you agree there is very little reason to MC D2 or D3?

Diminished returns ftw.

If we don't to it today when scum no jack *** about the setup (no town flips yet), then we might as well not do it until MyLo.

Lolwat?

Laces are right out of the equation, clearly...

[Sando]

You do realise that scum also benefit from a massclaim right? They get to find where all the town-PRs are.

It basically comes down to whether scum are benefiting more than town, and whether that ratio changes based on days.

I think scum get more benefit from a D1 claim compared to D2 claim than town get from a D1 claim compared to a D2 claim.

[Sando]

I don't see how scum can ever fake-claim outside of what they have chosen within the scum-group?

I've rethought my view on the Janitor btw. I think we should and can force the Janitor to claim today. First, we tell the Janitor he has to claim. If he does, good, if he's scum he can never use it, if town, well that kinda sucks, but not hugely.

If noone claims, we know scum have it, and we can reasonably assume that a townie tried to get it and didn't. We simply go down the list and ask 'did you choose janitor and get rejected'. First yes and we know scum is above them as Janitor.

Then at a mass-claim, it becomes pretty obvious who's the janitor.

Basically, the scum-janitor can either out themselves and settle for never using it, or almost guarantee their D2 lynch after a MC for 1 nights use of the Janitor ability. Or they can take the risk that literally no townies picked it.

Anyone see any problems?

[Sando]

Parama already claimed the janitor was above him, ftr.

We can possibly narrow it down more. But yeah, that means that scum basically have to claim it and not use it or get nailed in a mass-claim.

[Sando]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 12

Dramonic

- 1 - mb53 - (L-11)

Hoopla

- 4 - PranaDevil, DrippingGoofball, Zang, Socrates - (L-8)

manho

- 3 - Sando, Pomegranate, Parama - (L-9)

mb53

- 1 - CryMeARiver - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 4 - Faraday, Porkens, SerialClergyman, Hoopla - (L-8)

PranaDevil

- 1 - Dramonic - (L-11)

sorasgoof

- 3 - Super Awesome Mega Pimp!, Fate, Ellibereth - (L-9)

Players not voting:12keyblade, Budja, manho, sorasgoof, Zoiaum

I love that Fate and Dramonic are both arguing in favour of a mass-claim, yet Fate doesn't think we should direct the PRs, yet Dramonic assumes we'll be directing them. Fantastic...

Also, accusing Serial of being close minded to creative ways of playing the game, hilarious.

[Sando]

God I hate OMGUS accusations, they're the easiest accusation to make, ever, require no reasoning and don't have to even conform to any specific requirements for a scumtell.

[Sando]

##Unvote
##Vote: Fate

All credit for this vote must go to Serial, it's his theory that I'm blatantly stealing.

SerialClergymans nugget o' wisdom: First to accuse of rolefishing is scum.

Pretty sure this was the first?

[Sando]

Not really, they're only more likely to get the #1 pick out of all the scum, they still have zero knowledge on the town's numbers (except for those who rolled in the sign up thread). They're all just as likely to find themselves either beaten by a lucky town player, or lodged alongside a town player (or a pair, or a trio) who picked the same first number as them.

No matter how you talk it, that is just as likely whether they are scum or not,

the only thing we know scum could co-ordinate is whether they had the same numbers as another scum member.

Right, which means that each scum knew which 4 numbers not to pick. That's 4 less chances to get bumped to the back of the list than each town had.

Man, these laces are never going to get done up.

Yeah, scum have a better chance of noone else choosing their number. My napkin maths puts each scum at around 31% chance of that. Napkin maths puts Masons at ~25% and Town at ~23.5%. So yes, you're right, scum individually have better odds.

However, there's 3 times as many townies compared to scum... and then you've got masons on top of that...

The top spot is most likely to be a townie. But then I'm pretty sure every slot is most likely to be a townie.

PS, my napkin maths is (14/15)^(number people who could choose the same number). So it's:

Scum = (14/15)^17
Mason = (14/15)^20
Townie = (14/15)^21

This only works out the chance of noone else choosing your number though.

[Sando]

Ok, I'm not responding to simple reasoning without any maths, if you know I'm wrong, and I'm more than willing to accept that I could well be horribly wrong, then show me how. I can't say that I'm fantastic at stats, but I've done Stats 101 and work with stats a fair bit at work.

Also, we know that Scum were number theory'ing this. I've previously stated why a low second number is the best option, yet the top person chose 12 for their second number? Why?

Fate, why are you quoting scum-motivated maths?

[Sando]

Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.

Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.

[Sando]

Ok, I never did the math. There are 5 scum and about 10 players that rolled their numbers or revealed their numbers. That let's scum know more than half the numbers so I assumed that scum would have a better chance of getting the #1 spot.

Assuming everyone pretty much randomly picks, on average, 5.5 people would be the only one on their numbers. Of these, 3.5 would be town, 1.5 would be scum, and 0.5 would be mason. So town are 266% more likely to be the top spot than scum.

first, 3,5 when compared to 1,5 is 233%
second, its clear not everyone randomly picked.

Mason aren't town now?

[Sando]

But scum's numbers aren't (really) at random- they have the help of knowing the numbers of four other players.

This is taken into account.

Each scum has a (14/15)^17 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each mason has a (14/15)^20 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each town has a (14/15)^21 chance of noone choosing their number.

Scum - 30.95%
Mason - 25.16%
Town - 23.48%

5 scum x 30.95% = 1.55
2 Mason x 25.16% = 0.5
15 Townie x 23.48 = 3.52

There, you have my complete reasoning. Now can we lynch Fate please.

[Sando]

Nope, I did mean to multiply.

Each townie has a ~23.5% chance of noone else picking their number. As there are 17 townies, there will, on average, be 17x23.5% townies with noone picking their number. Do the same for scum and for mason, you get:

3.5 townies
0.5 masons
1.5 scum

A total of 5.5 people, on average, will have a solo-number, and therefor be ranked at the top.

Of these, 4 are pro-town, so make up ~72.5% of the top ranks, scum therefore make up 27.5%. So there are, when no rounding is done like I just did, 2.66 times as many town as scum in the solo ranks. Therefore town are 2.66 times as likely to get the top spot.

[Sando]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 12

Dramonic

- 1 - Ellibereth - (L-11)

Fate

- 1 - Sando - (L-11)

Hoopla

- 1 - Socrates - (L-11)

manho

- 1 - Parama - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 4 - Faraday, Hoopla, SerialClergyman, Porkens - (L-8)

sorasgoof

- 7 - Fate, Dramonic, PranaDevil, CryMeARiver, DrippingGoofball, Pomegranate, Super Awesome Mega Pimp! - (L-5)

Players not voting:12keyblade, Budja, manho, mb53, sorasgoof, Zang, Zoiaum

No, each townie has a 23.5% chance of noone else choosing their number, putting them into the top ranks.

[Sando]

the maths is right, but you need to consider the chance for scum to be in the first spot to the chance of finding scum randomly.

Oh, I'm not trying to argue with you, you're completely right, there are more scum in the solo-numbers than average, on average.

I was merely pointing out that people were wrong in saying that the top spot is more likely to be scum than town. Comparing it to other spots, sure, but town are still nearly 3 times more likely to be in the slot.

[Sando]

Does it make sense to you if we switch it up a little? --"Scum is more likely to have gotten the number 1 draft pick"

[Sando]

Pretty sure that's L-1, you've been warned that a vote from here on is probably a hammer on Soras...

[Sando]

Soras needs to claim a few hours ago.

Hi Scum.

[Sando]

Soras needs to claim a few hours ago.

Hi Scum.

Same to you. Why don't you want him to claim?

Where did I ever say he shouldn't claim?

[Sando]

Soras needs to claim a few hours ago.

Hi Scum.

Same to you. Why don't you want him to claim?

Where did I ever say he shouldn't claim?

OK, then just explain the response.

A claim is presumably because you want to know whether someone is a PR worth saving, correct? Soras is 100% a PR. Anyone waiting for and forcing a claim is probably scum. Anyone lynching him knew for sure that they were lynching a PR.

[Sando]

I still don't support the soras wagon by the way.

Says the hammer.

I proved a point. Don't you hate me for it?

You proved a point that noone was referring to... congrats

[Sando]

But it's something that's generally ignored that I think is stupid.
Don't wait until L-1 for a claim!

He hasn't posted since L-4 at least. It's not like he was here at L-2 saying 'hahahaha I'm not going to claim till L-1'.

[Sando]

He hasn't posted since L-4 at least.

L-6 :eng101:

Thank you, so since he was at half the votes required for a lynch.

[Sando]

But it's something that's generally ignored that I think is stupid.
Don't wait until L-1 for a claim!

You hammered someone you didn't suspect of scum at all just to prove a point?

Yup.

well, I agree that you shouldn't wait til L-1 to claim, but I don't support your way of proving it.

He merely 'proved' that you shouldn't wait till L-6 to claim.

[Sando]

Obviously it worked
It's not like we don't have MLs, and he was on my 5-man scumlist anyways.

Yeah I'm going back to... hi scum.

[Sando]

Well it's not like a claim would've saved him anyways.

(unless he tried to fakeclaim mason)

Pretty much, I'm not all that unhappy with how it went. Scum tries to force a fairly meaningless claim from a known PR, then quickhammers.

[Sando]

Well it's not like a claim would've saved him anyways.

(unless he tried to fakeclaim mason)

Pretty much, I'm not all that unhappy with how it went. Scum tries to force a fairly meaningless claim from a known PR, then quickhammers.

This is hilariously hypocritical.

Do you know what hypocritical means?

[Sando]

Okay the proper term is contradictory but "hilariously contradictory" doesn't have the same ring to it.

Pointing out how your argument is false as misleading is yelling at you? Just because you can't make a coherent argument, don't have a cry when someone points out your shortcomings.

[Sando]

Whoops I'm getting players mixed up. 12keyblade was the one yelling at me.

But here's the contradiction I was referring to:

Where did I ever say he shouldn't claim?

---> Implying you wanted him to claim

Pretty much, I'm not all that unhappy with how it went. Scum tries to force a fairly meaningless claim from a known PR, then quickhammers.

---> Saying you didn't care if he claimed or not

Also agreeing with SAMP's terrible 669 is a scumtell in itself.

That's not a contradiction in any way. The first statement does not express an opinion either way. You can try and put words in my mouth, but it aint going to work.

[Sando]

Bottoms up then? Happy to let Pom out someone first though.

[Sando]

If the vig is town and shot Budja I'll **** my pants.

COPS take shots in the dark, not vigs.

FFS.

Also the Odd-night vig is obviously scum. Everyone assumes that would be the first choice, so scum picked even-night instead and let the oddnight slide down to Sando/Porkens.

What? Vigs going after lurkers is classic vig. It's exactly how they should play, killing people that are inherantly hard to get lynched and a danger to town, without tying up the towns time.

[Sando]

Quicklynching Porkens is rediculously scummy, regardless of whether he's scum or not. Not giving people a chance to submit actions is baaaaaaad.

[Sando]

If the vig is town and shot Budja I'll **** my pants.

COPS take shots in the dark, not vigs.

FFS.

Also the Odd-night vig is obviously scum. Everyone assumes that would be the first choice, so scum picked even-night instead and let the oddnight slide down to Sando/Porkens.

What? Vigs going after lurkers is classic vig. It's exactly how they should play, killing people that are inherantly hard to get lynched and a danger to town, without tying up the towns time.

Hi scum. Don't apologize for him just yet.

And Budja was coming back from V/LA. Here are the people a town vig would've vigged in order from most likely to be mislynched to reputable player:
Zoiaum
Zang
mb53 (who?)

Etc. Etc.

Instead they took a shot at a legitimately above-average away player?
HAHA LULZ.

Other people lurking, and Zang has 3 times as many posts as Budja btw, does not change the fact that Budja wasn't here, didn't really contribute except to vote for 1 person and then unvote.

[Sando]

I'm odd-night vig. I shot Budja in his face for promising the reread. I don't regret it, I'd do it again.

The site is really slow for me ATM. If I don't talk that may be why

Haha. You also submitted the scumkill on SerialClergyman. Lynch please.

Fun times, I think we should wait till everyone has had a chance to submit their night actions though before lynching. This gets us 2 dead scum PRs, with only 1 town one dead. Town have a fair advantage at the moment, and making sure someone like the doc can submit their protection is fairly important I feel.

[Sando]

Is porkens at L-1?

And I would still like to claim today.

I disagree, we've basically got a proven investigation role with the possibility of the doc staying hidden and protecting them.

[Sando]

Fate: If both Porkens and soras are scum, then Sando is probably town, I think. Also, no reason to suggest vig targets if we don't have one.

There's a universal backup who is now an even night vig.

[Sando]

Elli's here, yay.

Who haven't we heard from and might not have had a chance to submit?

[Sando]

See, that's why a warning is useful aye?

We could be here for years waiting on Zaeioum

[Sando]

Anyone else find it odd that the scummiest people were not on the wagon?

##Vote: Mb53

You were lynching guaranteed scum. The people not on the wagon were merely not there because the hammer went down when they weren't on. I explained why I wasn't hammering. You're trying to throw scum points on people when there was literally no reason for scum or town to try and stop the wagon, and scum apparently had reason to force the wagon.

How come Fate appears to be claiming day actions by the way?

The scum having the universal backup would have made them much more willing to lynch Soras I think too.

BTW this weekend is a massive weekend in Aus, so my posting could be sporadic, and it's a 3 day weekend.

[Sando]

My apologies for my absence, ANZAC day basically wiped me out for two days, fun times though.

I'm just re-reading now.

Just some thoughts, I've already brought it up, but how much store do people actually put into a wagon-analysis of the Porkens wagon? It was on guaranteed scum, there was no real reason for scum to stay off it, quite the opposite if they can submit their buddies actions if they're away.

Are we waiting for people to check in for night actions?

[Sando]

We're waiting for you to hammer Dramonic.

Thanks for avoiding the question, that was quite useful. I haven't finished re-reading and want to know if we are missing people and need to give them a chance to submit actions.

[Sando]

So...
I'm the UBU, now even-night vig.
I shot manho because he was scummy, with a pro-scum role, with requests from multiple players to shoot him down.
In retrospect, I should've shot Prana.
Did I mention he's scum?

Dram, why would you vig a redirector? And why would a scum-redirector not have redirected away from the person submitting both of the scum kills? Why would you not think that a scum redirector would redirect your kill away to a townie?

[Sando]

Well Sando, unless I'm not following something, no one knew that he was the UBU, therefore the new even-night vig.

Huh? I'm asking why as the new vig, did he vig the redirector. What's that got to do with whether we new he was the UBU/Vig or not?

[Sando]

I think you said that if the redirector was scum, (dram though) he would have redirected dram. Am I mistaken?

I was under the impression a redirector redirected all the things directed at 'X' to 'Y'? This is my first game with one, am I wrong?

You seem to be saying they basically change 1 persons target?

[Sando]

Reread the role, you're right.

[Sando]

I thought it worked like this:

Redirector targets Sando to redirect to Pom. All actions that would have targetted Sando now target Pom.

Turns out no, I was wrong.

[Sando]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to Lynch : 9

Sando

- 1 -

mb53

- (L-8)

mb53

- 1 -

Sando

- (L-8)

Dramonic

- 7 -

Fate

,

Ellibereth

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Socrates

,

Pomegranate

,

CryMeARiver

,

Hoopla

- (L-2)

Players not voting - 7 - 12keyblade, Dramonic, Faraday, Parama, PranaDevil, Zang, Zoiaum

Yeah having thought about it, a redirector is basically 100% testable later? First person to claim redirected is either lying or the redirector is scum?

I'm still confused as to how you're claiming day-info though?

##Unvote
##Vote: Dramonic

[Sando]

So can we get the left-over Mason to claim with who Zoa 'protected' and hopefully cleared?

[Sando]

I'm so F'ing confused by Fate atm.

[Sando]

Prana, thanks for outing your mason buddy you ****ing dumbass.

Tell us who is town.

I told you you'd be alive Sando.

That Gunsmith better have a guilty.

Gunsmith could presumably have a gun result on cop though?

[Sando]

Wait, Fate has claimed Day-cop? Since when is there a day-cop?

[Sando]

Have we decided to mass-claim tomorrow?

Fate still confuses the hell out of me ><

[Sando]

Having thought about it a bit more, I think that considering the roles, scum were much more likely to want to avoid the MC. Both Vigs would have been directed by town. This does point a bit of a spotlight at the 'nay'ers from D1, including myself, but I think it's necessary.

Fate, you around? I know you want the hammer, can I have it please?

[Sando]

No Sando. Me and Hooppa scum go way back

Are you going to hammer in the next hour if I vote now?

[Sando]

##Vote: Hoopla

[Sando]

Thanks, Elli has a gun, scum can't change the kill to him now, pretty sure he's cop.

[Sando]

Fo shiz? Elli was claiming an innocent on someone at some point, I coulda sworn he was cop.

[Sando]

It basically is tomorrow...

[Sando]

BEEEEP.

Quick Sando post the rest of your results

There are none, sorry, I thought I could submit in twilight on N1, and N2 I targetted Manho.

I also thought when noone countered Elli's town claim on DGB I think it was that he was prolly cop, and shouldn't be outed today.

[Sando]

I'm still retardedly confused by the D1 role-info.

This game seems to have set up a rival informed minority to the scum, and I'm not in it

[Sando]

Since when is there a day cop?!

[Sando]

Scum should have realized how potent town getting lucky and picking almost all the investigation roles would be. It's made the game a bit one-sided...

If Spyrex had locked the thread one second after Fate's hammer this would be a different story right now.

There was a reason I was asking for the hammer, Fate was just being a douche for no reason.

[Sando]

ROFL

[Sando]

1.) Did you like the game?
2.) Did you let the setup?
3.) What would you keep?
4.) What would you change?

1) First few days were confusing and somewhat frustrating, and roles were lucky/way too powerful. It turned into a really interesting game though, and if I hadn't gotten Elli it would have been fun to watch.

2) I think there's a lot of potential for town to break it. We should have mass-claimed on D1 in hindsight considering the scum-powers. Masons have the potential to be very very powerful. Unfortunately given lack of action from a mason, this wasn't tested.

3) All of it really, I think the roles are generally good, but should perhaps be watered down somewhat.

4) The draft will get broken next time, it's pretty easy to do, and ruins the fun I think, something should be done. Since scum and masons are presumably assigned randomly, simply 1 person posting a draft list that forces people to be in the same order as the sign-on, or some similarly arbitrary listing, will break things. Draft also needs to be better explained I feel.

Good game town, Fate controlled things well, but got well and truly over-confident. Pom was pretty much psychic as well, picking both vigs on their kill night. Also lucky that she didn't target me onto Manho when he died

I feel slightly better about my cop read on Elli considering there was no cop. I felt dick doing what I did, but Fate forced my hand by refusing to let me hammer, for absolutely no reason it turns out ><

The scum-play was incredibly ballsy, I loved it actually, but I think probably a mistake with so many town-investigative roles, even without the cop! Role-cop + neighbouriser so you can group the investigative roles with yourself and hopefully influence them away from yourself could be really cool. Not sure how it was going to play in the end-game though.

[Sando]

What would be the real downside of not assigning alignments till after the draft, but before role-picks. Then there's basically no point in rigging the draft. Scum lose some advantage in being able to set up their picks, but they'd lose a lot more if it got rigged. Remove Masons and that might level it a bit?

Masons are pretty hard to quantify as a power in this, they can be insanely powerful, or basically just confirmed townies later. Probably too much randomness to be balanced.