Pick Your Power III: A Brave New World

[Porkens]

Well, I think it's safe to assume that the selves be in or past the bunch of 9s. So, lets lynch our way from #1 down. I'd also support a reverse massclaim (from bottom to top) now rather than later.

[Porkens]

Well, I think it's safe to assume that the

scum wouldn't let them

selves be in or past the bunch of 9s. So, lets lynch our way from #1 down. I'd also support a reverse massclaim (from bottom to top) now rather than later.

ebwop

[Porkens]

##vote: Sorasgoof

[Porkens]

##unvote vote pom

i feel the mojo of the game has been messed up by the signup thread somewhat.

Amen.

I'd bet a zillion dollars that SpyreX meant:

##unvote

##vote: Pom

[Porkens]

[green]aye[/green]

[Porkens]

unaye

nay

[Porkens]

Does it make sense to you if we switch it up a little? --"Scum is more likely to have gotten the number 1 draft pick"

[Porkens]

The picks were not completely random. The scum had more knowledge than the town or masons, so they could ensure (WIFOM aside) that they didn't pick the same numbers as each other.

Of course it isn't 100%, but they certainly had a better chance to pick better numbers.

Thus, a scum had a better chance to get the #1 draft pick than a non-scum individual.

[Porkens]

Not really, they're only more likely to get the #1 pick out of all the scum, they still have zero knowledge on the town's numbers (except for those who rolled in the sign up thread). They're all just as likely to find themselves either beaten by a lucky town player, or lodged alongside a town player (or a pair, or a trio) who picked the same first number as them.

No matter how you talk it, that is just as likely whether they are scum or not,

the only thing we know scum could co-ordinate is whether they had the same numbers as another scum member.

Right, which means that each scum knew which 4 numbers not to pick. That's 4 less chances to get bumped to the back of the list than each town had.

[Porkens]

God damn I wish I was a dayvig.

This game needs a flip and find some focus.

Just so people don't forget: FATE IS SCUM!

When is deadline?

Naborize me.

[Porkens]

But scum's numbers aren't (really) at random- they have the help of knowing the numbers of four other players.

This is taken into account.

Each scum has a (14/15)^17 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each mason has a (14/15)^20 chance of noone choosing their number.
Each town has a (14/15)^21 chance of noone choosing their number.

Scum - 30.95%
Mason - 25.16%
Town - 23.48%

5 scum x 30.95% = 1.55
2 Mason x 25.16% = 0.5
15 Townie x 23.48 = 3.52

There, you have my complete reasoning. Now can we lynch Fate please.

There is no need to multiply, is there? You've already shown that the scum, as a group, have a 30.95% chance to pick the lowest unique number, while masons have 25.16, and town have a 23.48.

I think you also mean to divide, here.

30.95% / 5= 6.19% (each individual scum has a 6% chance to pick the LUN)
25.16% / 2= 12.58% (each individual mason has a 13% chance to pick the LUN)
23.48% / 15= 1.57% (each individual townsperson has a 1.57% chance to pick the LUN)

[Porkens]

Nope, I did mean to multiply.

Each townie has a ~23.5% chance of noone else picking their number. As there are 17 townies, there will, on average, be 17x23.5% townies with noone picking their number. Do the same for scum and for mason, you get:

3.5 townies
0.5 masons
1.5 scum

A total of 5.5 people, on average, will have a solo-number, and therefor be ranked at the top.

Of these, 4 are pro-town, so make up ~72.5% of the top ranks, scum therefore make up 27.5%. So there are, when no rounding is done like I just did, 2.66 times as many town as scum in the solo ranks. Therefore town are 2.66 times as likely to get the top spot.

Each townie has a 23.5% chance to get the top spot? There's a serious flaw there, somewhere. It can't be more than 1/22 (4.54%) for any

individual

, regardless of alignment.

[Porkens]

My instinct tells me that something is off with your math, either in the initial calculation or interpretation of the results.

Sadly, I can't show my work at this time, so for now I bow to your numbers for now.

[Porkens]

Christ almighty I'm voting for pom.

##unvote
##Vote: SorasGoof

[Porkens]

I'm odd-night vig. I shot Budja in his face for promising the reread. I don't regret it, I'd do it again.

The site is really slow for me ATM. If I don't talk that may be why

[Porkens]

And Budja was coming back from V/LA. Here are the people a town vig would've vigged in order from most likely to be mislynched to reputable player:
Zoiaum
Zang
mb53 (who?)

Etc. Etc.

Instead they took a shot at a legitimately above-average away player?
HAHA LULZ.

shrug; says you. Zoiaum, Zang and mb53, if scum, will get themselves lynched for it eventually.

[Porkens]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzZ34T4ynZA