Mini 918 - A Hot, Steaming Bowl of Mafia - Game Over!

[d3x]

I hope that was a rhetorical question.

[Locke Lamora]

Why, because we agreed not to out-guess the mod?

[d3x]

Yeah, pretty much. That and it's a discussion that we can get stuck into that won't further meaningful discussion, imo. It's not really going to help us figure out who to Lynch today. After the game's done, I'd be more than happy to enter into a discussion about whether the mechanics were broken or not, as that's the only time we'll truly know.

[Locke Lamora]

So your response that two mafia kills would be broken and thus very unlikely to happen was an odd thing to say, really. That's not what I call keeping a completely open mind about the setup.

[d3x]

The '2 Mafia NKs being broken' was more of an after-thought. My main opposition to the line of thinking was my first response...

what would be the reason of waiting until N3 or beyond to use it? Why not just blast a few proTown players N1?

Given it may stray into WIFOM territory, but I was trying to illustrate that I didn't believe your hypothetical suggestion of Scumcharter+extra NK was very plausible.

Since we're obviously both online atm, what are your thoughts on the 2 lurkers? Do you buy Bio's answers?

[Zachrulez]

Yeah, I'm finding Charter's claim hard to believe.

You'd have to buy 2 vigilantes AND 2 investigative roles.

It looks pretty convenient too.

Did you miss my whole don't outguess the mod post?

I did, I still don't think it's likely that there are 2 vigs or 2 investigative roles.

[charter]

That's all you have to say?

Move Zach up to number two suspect after Bio.

[d3x]

That's enough for me.

UnVote/Vote: Zachrulez

[sigma]

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

The deadline is March 16th at 7:00 AM (EST)

Vote Count:

Col.Cathart ( 0 )
d3x ( 0 )
RedCoyote ( 0 )
charter ( 1 ) Col.Cathart
Bio Hazard ( 0 )
Zachrulez ( 1 ) d3x
Locke Lamora ( 0 )
No Vote ( 7 )

[Zachrulez]

Zach- What are your thoughts about D1 and D2 {before you joined}? What are your thoughts on Nik? What are your thoughts on Konowa/Bio?

To be honest, it doesn't really feel like a whole lot happend between day 1 and 2.

The only things that really stood out to me were Shotty's strange early play (Which didn't really mean anything in hindsight with his flip.) Hoopla's bizzare bandwagoning without actually posting any content, and Redcoyote's strange comment following the Sotty Vig kill.

Day 1 was pretty lurky in general and the lynch happend really quickly which didn't leave much to go on beyond that and the lynching wagon.

Day 2 is where I came in and was pretty much convinced that Hoopla was scum. The vig claim was pretty much all that was discussed from the start of the day, so I'm not sure how much I can really say about that now.

Bio's hammer was scummy, but in light of the Tracker result, and what is IMO a ridiculous claim from Charter. I'd probably actually lean a bit more to lynching Charter right now. Just happend to target Shotty? (who he's been tunneling on.) With a roleblock? Yeah... it just looks too convenient for me.

Anyway... I'll give a brief rundown of how I see everyone in the game.

Col. C - Pretty much confirmed town with the way he counterclaimed Hoopla when she fakeclaimed.

d3x - I haven't really seen anything from him that looks all that suspicious. His reaction to the hammer yesterday seemed reasonable to me, and his vote on MIC was very early and seems unlikely to have been a bus.

RC - Reaction to the Sotty kill seems off, but I don't seem all that much that really points me either way on his alignment. I'd probably say neutral right now

Charter - All about Shotty prior to his death, until Hoopla's fake claim came into play moving his vote. This looks opportunistic in hindsight. That plus the tracking result on him and the fact that I don't believe his claim makes me think he's likely scum.

Bio Hazard - Lurky player slot. Scummy hammer on Hoopla. His reaction and his rational acceptance of the suspicion on him for what he did do redeem him a little... but I still don't like the play from this slot.

Locke - Lurky and very little in the way of vote patterns to analyze when it comes to him. I find this frustrating when trying to get a read on him, and it gives me a worrying feeling that this play might be tweed mafia all over again.

I think that's everyone. I know I shouldn't have put this off for as long as I did. My lack of activity has been absolutely inexcusable. I've found it difficult to motivate myself to post in mafia in general and I don't really know why... It's no excuse for my play here up to this point though. I'll make my best effort to stay active in this game from here on out.

[RedCoyote]

An idea popped into my head when I was in the shower earlier.

We lynch either BH or Zach, and charter shoots the other one.

Most of us agreed that there is going to be a scumflip between the two of them, right? This way we will be two scum down come tomorrow. Thoughts?

[d3x]

An idea popped into my head when I was in the shower earlier.

First.. wow. Lol!

Second and more importantly...

We lynch either BH or Zach, and charter shoots the other one.

Didn't we just talk about the fact that if we misLynch and misVig, we're essentially losing the game tonight? Are you confident enough that one of the two lurkers are Scum that you'd risk the game right now?

[Locke Lamora]

I'm not convinced that there's going to be a scumflip between them. That idea had crossed my mind too.

Zach: you find something particularly lurky about my play?

d3x: I didn't like BH's response much. He didn't back his thoughts up much, such as his town read on RC, and I want to hear why he picked charter out for the bus. As for his hammer, that's another one of those things that you think scum wouldn't do, like MIC sticking his neck out to defend RC. His being humble and apologising I don't think makes him any more likely to be town - I did the same thing as SK in FF Mafia after I'd gone after a townie all day on D1. I thought Zach was a little eager to put his vote down; he seemed too quick to decide that the dayvig could be scum and I don't think the pressure was warranted because Hoopla had already agreed to direct her kill wherever we wanted. I agree with him about charter and his reads on most players seem reasonably thought-out. As he admits, we need a lot more contribution from him too. I find BH scummier and I already favoured a Konowa lynch. Zach I'm unsure on, I thought his decision to put Hoopla at L-1 was a poor one but I don't have enough of a read from him or Nikanor to find him particularly scum or town.

[RedCoyote]

First.. wow. Lol!

I'll let you relish on the lovely visage of my glorious naked body while I respond to you and Locke. I get my best ideas in the shower, and that's how I know this is going to work.

I think there is scum there, and, although I'd have to go back to verify this, I think more players than just me and Hoopla agreed that there was at least one scum between BH and Zach.

[d3x]

I <3 RC and the lovely visage of his glorious naked body. End transmission.

Seriously though, I'm leaning towards one Scum between the two {hell, I've Voted for each today}, but I don't know that I'm so confident that I'm ready to Endgame this right now. That's what we're talking about here. Unless it's 1 Scum and a potential 3rd party left, we'd lose now if you were wrong.

[Locke Lamora]

I did agree that it was very likely. I also thought charter wasn't scum. I'm definitely not so sure about that now, so my thinking one of BH and Zach has to be scum is also uncertain.

[Locke Lamora]

The more I think about it, the more I don't buy that town-charter is going to use his protect N1 instead of investigating, blocking or killing Shotty. It just doesn't seem like the kind of thing he'd do after tunnelling on Shotty all day. It's too conservative a move and I'm finding it hard to picture it.

Vote: charter

[charter]

An idea popped into my head when I was in the shower earlier.

We lynch either BH or Zach, and charter shoots the other one.

Most of us agreed that there is going to be a scumflip between the two of them, right? This way we will be two scum down come tomorrow. Thoughts?

I'm not sure about this if we lynch one and they flip town. If they flip scum, then I think it will work.

The more I think about it, the more I don't buy that town-charter is going to use his protect N1 instead of investigating, blocking or killing Shotty. It just doesn't seem like the kind of thing he'd do after tunnelling on Shotty all day. It's too conservative a move and I'm finding it hard to picture it.

Vote: charter

I already explained, I assumed we would just be lynching Shotty so I wasn't going to be wasting my cop on him. I already also said I was saving the vig for endgame when it becomes much better or can buy us another day. I don't investigate people I think are obvscum and are going to get themselves lynched anyway. Have you ever been a cop? How do you do it?

[Locke Lamora]

I don't think I ever have been a straight-up cop, actually. When I have information roles, I usually focus on investigating someone who I think is scummy. Take my tracking KMD on N1 in Star Control, for example. I just don't see how anything from the way D1 went made you think we would get an automatic Shotty lynch. The two lurkers were virtual unknowns, I clearly hadn't expressed any preference for lynching Shotty and most people you sounded out on it were getting a neutral/slightly scummy read at worst. Add MIC's lynch and his vote to all that and it simply makes no sense whatsoever. If anything, I'd say I would be a more likely lynch than Shotty after D1 because I voted for Hoopla and not MIC.

For argument's sake, I'll wash over not doing anything to Shotty and come to my other concern. How do you justify using the protect on N1, when you had 9 targets to choose from? If you'd waited even one more night, it would most likely have been at least 2 fewer players to choose from to protect.

[charter]

I already said I thought Cathart was town. Go back and check. It looks like I picked a good doc target too.

I don't investigate people I think are obvscum and will get lynched. It's pointless. If they're innocent, then you either let them swing anyway and waste the investigation or you have to claim to save them and out yourself, which is terrible. It's no win.

You're saying I'm dumb to protect night one. What if I had investigated shotty? A lot of good that would do right now, would have been wasted all the same. Your logic of waiting to doc because it will be more effective applies to my thinking of waiting to cop and vig.

[charter]

Are you even reading my posts Locke? This is like the third time you're questioning me about something I've already gone over.

[Locke Lamora]

Yes, of course we know Cathart was a good target to protect now. If you'd investigated Shotty N1, you wouldn't have kept focus on him D2 and you might have put your block/kill/protect to better use last night. Instead of which, you blocked a dead vanilla townie. You even said you were wavering in your view of Shotty-scum on D2, which is not really obvscum. Personally, I can see quite a lot of use for investigating Shotty D1.

[charter]

Well, I don't really see any point in continuing this debate, what's done is done. I was trying a new strategy for JOAT this time in saving the cop/vig, clearly it was bad idea.

[Locke Lamora]

Perhaps I just have too different an idea of how to play a JOAT. I think if I was sure (or as sure as you can be D1) someone was scum, I'd at least have used the block on them N1. If Shotty had been more of a prime lynch candidate with MIC's flip, I might be able to see why you used the protect instead. No matter how many times I reread, I just can't see the sequence of actions matching up with your play and the game as a whole. You seem less sure that Shotty is scum on D2, so instead of investigating you use the far less definitive block? You might just be a victim of circumstance, but it all sounds a little bit too unlikely; using two JOAT abilities that are both unverifiable and being tracked to the kill last night? Either you're lying or scum got very lucky with how things played out.

[charter]

Well, what I am worried about is if I get lynched, then there's probably two scum left and I don't see any way to find them other than both of them being tracked. Unless both Zach and Bio are scum, it's going to be an easy scum win if I'm lynched today.