Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[DocPotter]

I'm kinda thinking that the nine groups are kinda like neighbourhoods. I know they can't communicate or such but, some will contain no scum, some one scum, maybe one with two scum.

Not a reason to vote for somebody, but a reason to study groups carefully.

Vote FeFiFoFum For doing the RVS wrong, and voting Socrates (srsly guys, if he's not dead tommorow he's either BP or scum).

FFFF didn't vote Socrates.

Care to explain?

Someone brought up Vengeful townie in relation to Fate. Is there a good case for scum to take it?

[DocPotter]

Can someone tell me if in the first PyP game the first and second draft picks were killed early, ad if not would a former scum from that game say why?

I'm wondering if the wagon on Fate is worth it on the basis tha a town Fate might be an early scum target, as Fate himself alluded to concerning Socrates.

[DocPotter]

Thanks Pom, that's the shorcut info I was looking for, but silly me was looking at the post game first.

Hoopla's numbers are right. It's the underlying assumptions that are optomistic I think. While I generally agree that the scum could try and hit five different x numbers, they might not have all wanted too/read the QT first, whatever.

The 55% chance, which is probability not statistics btw, sounds optomistic.

I think there is a better than average chance of finding a scum in the first four picks, but that's not enough to base a vote on. (That is, better than finding scum in any random set of four players)

At this point we hunt the scummy. Later on we worry about the numbers.

I'm still not sure about Fate. Wish he had answered better. He didn't even bother to check his own post to see the he said that FFFF voted soc when FFFF had FOS'ed him when asked about that. Minor thing though.

[DocPotter]

Bugger the theory, lets hunt scum huh Elli?

Hoopla, why are you promoting your idea using the most optomistic odds? Why not use some more realistic numbers? Also, why Fate over Socrates? I don't think that Fate is that scummy. Don't think Soc is scummy either at the moment.
But I do think that Scum might try and mis-lynch the top picks. Especially after seeing Cobalt in PyP1.

[DocPotter]

Hoopla's math is flawed.

It isn't Jack. His assumptions might be crook, but the math isn't.

Yours however I'm not sure of.

p.s. Hoopla, don't quibble with the math. Tell us your suspects based on in thread stuff.

This is right however.
The probability arguements are a nice aditional to actual scumhunting at this stage, not a replacement.

I believe Fate should wait to claim until someone says they are willing to hammer, not before.
That wont be me.

FOS Jack

Not happy with the claims about Hoopla's work, even if I think Hoopla has too much faith in it.

[DocPotter]

You know Hoopla, and Happy birthday btw, much as I like talking theory and such, there is one basic assumption in your probabilities that you have failed to address. Your own alignment.
If you are town then your other assumptions are fair, but if you are scum then you'll already know how many 'X' numbers the scum are on and can tailor your assumptions to suit.

So rather than lynch the top, lets lynch you. If you flip town we know we can trust your assumptions and place a little more faith in your theory/plan. If you flip scum then ...

[DocPotter]

Something about Porkin's comment is not right.

But FFFF's vote was worse. #260 is not that good either. Fate gave an answer, of sorts

However, you lacked agreement with my logic therefore you voted me for no real reason.

This just doesn't sound right.

Vote FFFF

Plum, was this circumstance special enough?

[DocPotter]

It's viable. But there's a decent chance that neither Socrates nor Fate are actually scum, so we'd just probably be wasting our best two power roles.

[DocPotter]

You want to use theory to lynch roles on the (decentish) chance they are scum, I want to use theory to help lynch scum and don't care if they have a role.

Fair summation?

[DocPotter]

Look forward to it StrangerCoug, especially Soc's.

[DocPotter]

I wonder if reaction fishing will become an Olympic sport?

Unvote
Vote The1fifi

[DocPotter]

Cobalt is pushing for a Pom lynch, not you The1fifi.

[DocPotter]

Missed that, but it still doesn't explain the quoted stuff. That refered to Pom.

[DocPotter]

You're trying to show the chance that scum picked a singular number based on the results. You should look at the chance of scum picking singular numbers based on what they had to choose from.

To analyse the results we need to purely look at the results.

We know there are 5 scum. They could have picked either:
1 'x' number. Didn't happen, as the largest group has 4 people in it.
2 'x' numbers. 4:1 unlikely as bad tactics, but 3:2 is just possible but still unlikely.
3 'x' numbers 3:1:1 or 2:2:1
4 'x' numbers.
5 'x' numbers.

We kow that there were 9 'x' numbers picked, so taking the best of the likely options for town which is 3.

We get 3 of the 9 groups have at least 1 scum in it. Or 33% chance of any group containing scum.
4 'x' numbers runs to 44% with probably 1 scum per group.

5 'x' numbers gives 55% chance for 1 scum in each group.

If we assume the best scum option, then lynching the singles gives us the best chance of lynching scum but a large chance of wiping out a good town PR. If we choose the worst likely scum option, then hitting the groups of three becomes a better option. (Chance of multiple scum for a better hit chance, lower chance of PR's)


However, I still believe that we need to look for scummy players first, and once we get a flip or two, or some definate scum/town feels, then we should start looking at the numbers.

Purely going by numbers, NUFFL, or Murphy, will bite us in the arse.

ATM, I'm flippin between Jack and Hoopla appearing slightly scummy for pushing optomised math and not looking at the their assumptions properly. Could be scum trying to push theories affected by known scum choices.

[DocPotter]

Just quickly Jack, because the number stuff is taking too long.

Hoopla's, and my, little spiel is looking at the distribution of scum through a known set of 'X' numbers and taking into account probably distrabution paterns. (ie: number of 'X' selected by scum over the 9 'X' numbers.

Hoopla only really talks about the set-up that most favours what she wants to do.

You however Jack, and more actively mis-representing things.

Now, to get to the math you are misrepresenting specifically.

1, 1, 1, 2, 1

That's the result from random.org I just got. So is the probability of getting "1" 80%?

With five results, and four of them known to be a '1', the probability of any of those results being a '1' is 80%, not 33%. If we didn't know the results then the chance of any result being a '1' is 33%.
(Actually with the draft we can deduce the results because we know there are five scum in the game, we know how many result groups there are, and there are limited distrabution/spreads available to the scum)

This is exactly what myself and Hoopla are getting at.
With nine result groups, and either three, four, or five* of them containing scum the chance of any group containing at least one scum is 33%, 44%, or 55% respectively.

Let's say that by chance 18 people picked one number, and 4 people picked single numbers. Now let's assume that the scum didn't double up on any of the numbers. That would mean that the 4 singular numbers have to be mafia. This is the essence of your guys analysis.

The essence of my math discussion is a chance that gets expressed as aprox 6e^-20% chance. Wow, I mean wow.

*There is a chance of 2 groups, which would be 22% but that kid of spread seems too unlikely to bother with.

ATM, I'm flippin between Jack and Hoopla appearing slightly scummy for pushing optomised math and not looking at the their assumptions properly.

I'll let Elli worry about his 'catch' himself now. (Yes I knew out what he was doing, and why)

Unvote

Jack, you seem to be attempting to do anythiing to discredit analysis of the draft result, analysis that not many people seem to be following at the moment. I might argue about when it should be applied, or the specifics of the assumptions, but not about the theory itself. I can't think of a town reason for anyone to argue against the analysis itself.

Vote Jack

Ok, it wasn't so quick

[DocPotter]

Hoopla is right with her math though*. Your math is not. And where it is, you're trying to push it as unreasonable.

Why use hypotheticals? We have the exact situation we need. Same percentage chance for both btw. 32% off of the top of my head.





*But she forgets to take Power Roles into account. Or doesn't care about them. There's also some simplification/rounding involved. But do people really want to see it all?

[DocPotter]

I'm glad it's a direct comparison Jack. Now what are you trying to get at. WHat actually are you trying to say.

Plain english please.

[DocPotter]

I'm glad it's a direct comparison Jack. Now what are you trying to get at. WHat actually are you trying to say.

Plain english please.

I changed the numbers to make it intuitive. But the process used is the same. Here's another alternative:

1,000,000 townies and 2 mafia. Picking numbers between 1 and three.

1) 1 person
2) 500,000 people
3) 500,001 people

Ignore how unlikely the number breakdown is. Isn't it clear that the the 2 mafia are probably in groups 2 and 3?

So with our nine groups, you can't say that each is equally likely to contain mafia. Some are more likely than others, and that's why socrates and fate don't each have a 50% chance of being mafia.

Lol, now I see your falacy Jack. Apart from the obvious* it doesn't matter how many people are in each group, if we have 'i' number of groups and 'j' number of them contain scum then the chance of any group containing scum doesn't depend in any way on the number of people in each group*.


*The obvious is of course that the number of people in a group must be large enough to hold the scum that could be in the group. The 1:1:1:1:1 fits into everything but a 2:1:1:1 changes the chance that the singleton groups contain scum slightly, which is Hoopla's error. A 2:2:1 or 3:2 or 3:1:1 really screw with the odds.

Damn it, family intruding lol

[DocPotter]

Bouncy.Bouncy - 3 - RedCoyote, Faraday, Fate - (L-9)
Cobalt - 1 - The1fifi - (L-11)
Dramonic - 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)
Fate - 3 - Bouncy.Bouncy,

Dramonic, FeFiFoFum

- (L-9)

FeFiFoFum

- 2 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart - (L-10)
Jack - 1 - DocPotter - (L-11)
Pomegranate - 2 - Socrates, Farside - (L-10)
Socrates - 2 - Hoopla, StrangerCoug - (L-10)
The1fifi - 3 -

Cobalt

, Porkens, Devotress - (L-9)
wolframnhart - 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Official Vote Count
Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy - 3 - RedCoyote, StrangerCoug, Porkens - (L-9)
Fate - 3 - Bouncy.Bouncy,

Dramonic, FeFiFoFum

- (L-9)

FeFiFoFum

- 9 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart, Faraday, Hoopla, The1fifi, Ellibereth, Jack, Fate, TonyMontana - (L-3)
Jack - 1 - DocPotter - (L-11)
Pomegranate - 2 - Socrates, Farside - (L-10)
The1fifi - 2 -

Cobalt

, Devotress - (L-10)

Bouncy.Bouncy - 5 - Fate <snip>

If bouncy flips town, I'm voting Fate. Too coincidental. The people who stuck on the Fate vote are either dead or leading the vote count.

[DocPotter]

Well for starters the chance that you are scum goes to around 60%

[DocPotter]

No, no, no. That's only if you use Hoopla's optomistic figures. Got to take into account the chance of the other possible scum 'X' number set-ups. But we're still in Nuffle range.


Really it's just the co-incidence factor. I don't believe in that much co-incidence.

[DocPotter]

Either that momentum has to be stopped by a competent defense (

by

bouncy)

<snip>

Fixed

[DocPotter]

@Ray. After a few moments thought, maybe it should be your call if Bouncy posts his results.

The1Fifi, chances are that if Ray is town the scum will assume he has a decent PR anyway, so I don't think we'll be giving much away.

[DocPotter]

In favour of the Bouncy lynch.

So much I don't like. Especially Ray breadcrumbing before Bouncy revealed.

[DocPotter]

Vote Socrates

Then almost certainly Fate.

[DocPotter]

No Elli. It looks like the vig is scum, which means we must hunt him down. Vig will be a top pick, so we will start with the top pick. Then follow with Fate.

[DocPotter]

Find me something that makes Red look scummy enough for a town vig to hit?

[DocPotter]

Mod. Fairly sure I voted Scorates, not myself

[DocPotter]

After finally finishing charting the votes I'm in several minds.

I think the vig has ended up in scum hands, but am not sure where.
Soc has really focused on Pom and Fate. If he was a town vig, one of them would have died.
But would Fate have tried for it? Being second I doubt he would have. I wouldn't have. But if he did, well he did vote for Dramonic so a town vig is believable, but Ray or Red. Nope.
Thirdly, someone way down the order could have lucked out. Who here thinks that that is likely?

[DocPotter]

unvote

When Pom flips scum, Tony next?

[DocPotter]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 9

Pomegranate

- 7 - Porkens, Faraday, Socrates, Devotress, Ellibereth, Jack, Farside - (L-2)

Socrates

- 4 - StrangerCoug, Fate, Hoopla, DocPotter - (L-5)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate, The1fifi, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

unvote:
vote: Pom

I really wish we had not forced soc to claim. I'm surprised he didn't take vig and now I have to wonder who has it as Fate has been giving me town vibes all game.

My 4am count says this hammered. Someone want to dbl check?

[DocPotter]

Farside was 8, 9 to lynch.

I reall shouldn't do this when the kids get unettled in the middle of the night.

Claim please Pom.

and if VT, what you tried for because you're going reguardless, but if you're town we'll need the info as we lynch Soc.

[DocPotter]

Pomegranite

Obligatory DGB quote

[DocPotter]

Bah.

Vote Pomegranite

[DocPotter]

Before I did my read I speculated Socrates bussing Pomegranate in order to remain scum Vig.

Hoopla. This is why I wont call you confirmed town.

Does not rule out Socrates/Fate/Pom being scum either. Not likely perhaps, but still possible.

Paranoia is a way of life.

[DocPotter]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 9

Pomegranate

- 8 - Porkens, Faraday, Socrates, Devotress, Jack, Farside, DocPotter, The1fifi - (L-1)

Socrates

- 2 - Fate, Hoopla - (L-7)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Ellibereth, Pomegranate, StrangerCoug, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

If it's sundown on the east coast of the US (I think) then she's VLA for the Sabath. From memory Plum usually posts that she's leaving. Does Pom?
Not that it matters, she's had her chance I reckon.

My count has her at L-1.

[DocPotter]

If Soc took cop, then there's a good chance that vig headed down the list.

Pom can't claim for at least a day. iso her and see if you want.

Which means we might have scum stalling so they can get their kill order in.

I'm also thinking that if Pom flips scum, Wolf sould be next.

[DocPotter]

Socrates is extremely likely town guys. Trust me.

Um, don't do anything stupid...

I'm dead serious.

Can someone do me a wonderful favor and find out everyone that had at some point voted Soc yesterday? There's probably scum in there.

Soc (#125-#127)
StrangerCoug(#20-#58, #141-#405, #414-#485)
Hoopla(#215-#482)

[DocPotter]

vote Soc

[DocPotter]

unvote

Claim:

Vanila town.

But that's not important.

Anyone who has played with me recently, or if the search worked, would know that I get lynched a lot early on. I'm improving btw but.

Because of that I tried for Vengeful Townie.

Someone above me has it.

Scum Soc claiming cop having Vengeful is a distinct posibility.

Currently we have 8 town and 5 scum
Lynch a scum vengeful and assuming we don't stop a NK we get:
5 town and 4 scum. At which we have to lynch the vig or we're done.
Mis-lynch and we have 5 and 5 for a scum win.
Lynch other scum and we have 6 and 4.
lynch the vig and we have 7 and 4.

Scum Soc is trying to attract a lynch so he could well be the vengeful.

For that to be likely, the scum must have the first two picks because it's obvious they have the vig as well.

Vote Fate

With a scum TM as my outside chance for a low level pick-up of cop or vig.

[DocPotter]

Because Fate, why I chose it is logical for the way my games had been going.
I mention it because it fits with the way that Socrates has been playing this day.

Whereas, you have 9 votes day 1, 7 of which were on town, drove a mis-lynch day 2 unvoting to then hammer, Hammered day 3, and threw your vote at Soc for 1 post. Hammered twice after delaying. Waiting for ton PR's to send PM's or scum buddies?

Buddy up to Hoopla who says that lynchign Soc might not be towns best move, call me scum for saying that lynching Soc might not be towns best move. I really love the contradiction in your post.

One thing about those little scenarios. Lynching scum two nights running is still good for town. So thanks for reacting Fate, confirming yourself as scum to my mind.

If the vengeful lynchee is in townie hands, then they need to claim.

Unvote Fate, vote Soc

Fate next.

[DocPotter]

*EBWOP, it: ie, me knowing it's above me

[DocPotter]

Fate, who needs to claim. The bolded ones, the unbolded ones, all of them?

[DocPotter]

Soc is at L-2.

Good try though Soc.

[DocPotter]

Strange Soc, how your list and Fate's claim list work with each other.

Jack, StrangerCoug, The1fifi, DocPotter

fifi, Fate, Doc, Jack, and Faraday

Three people the same. The difference, Devotress and Faraday and Fate.

Some sort of desperate attempt to deflect from Fate no doubt.

As I said. Good try Soc. No cigar.

[DocPotter]

True, I hadn't considered the govenor killing off a lynch on the vig to give the extra day of NK's

Still doesn't change that we need socrates votes.

[DocPotter]

Not on a slim chance. We can survive not hitting the vig if we hit scum. (If they have both vengeful and govenor then we are probably screwed reguardless)

Fate, Socrates, TonyMontana.

Hoopla, the highest Wolf has gotten is 3 votes, and the second time it happened that third vote was placed by fifi, and it was Elli who shifted off first.

[DocPotter]

Ultimately I'd like to see the vig down played. Either limited shots, or untargatables that cost the vig something.

Thereare other ideas that I have, but they might be abit on the bastard side of things.

For example, hidden roles based on draft order. Picks '5' and '9' are neighbours with a 1 shot vig on a target they agree on, as well as what ever they draft.

[DocPotter]

As long as you say that the hidden ability is in the mix it wouldn't be that bad. That certain, un specified, draft picks will be neighbours.

Now Serial Killer would be a real bastard.

[DocPotter]

A published list of what abilities were taken? Not who took them or how ever many tried to take it.

Bit artificial but would allow fake claims.