Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Fate]

Do we have any reason to believe scum had the possibility to actually communicate legally before sending their draft/role?

This. I must have missed a rule... IIRC, he said we would all get a PM with our alignment, and then have to send back a reply with the picks.

Does alignment include list of team members? Hmmm... Any scum want to claim and tell us?

Vote FeFiFoFum

For doing the RVS wrong, and voting Socrates (srsly guys, if he's not dead tommorow he's either BP or scum).

[Fate]

EBWODP: , and FOSing* Socrates

[Fate]

Nice failquote^

By the way, we were supposed to put effort into picking those numbers? The whole system was way over my head, so I just picked two numbers I thought would be close to ones that other people wouldn't pick... And Fate was in my favor.

Bwhahah!

[Fate]

Everything according to plan, then.

[Fate]

What is this I don't even?

[Fate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Hoopla

- 1 - Porkens - (L-11)

Jack

- 1 - Cobalt - (L-11)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-11)

TonyMontana

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Players not voting: Bouncy.Bouncy, curiouskarmadog, Devotress, DocPotter, Dramonic, Ellibereth, Faraday, Farside, Fate, FeFiFoFum, Hoopla, Pomegranate, Rayfrost, RedCoyote, Socrates, The1fifi, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

Do we have any reason to believe scum had the possibility to actually communicate legally before sending their draft/role?

The Draft:[/b]

Once the order is done, you will then straight down the list attempt to pick a power role.

If someone above you on the list has picked that role you will be vanilla.

Note: The mafia will be able to talk before the draft begins for a period of approximately 24 hours.

Although, I'd normally be skeptical about someone making statements like that (a similar one is, 'oh I didn't know scum could daytalk' ), this seems genuine.

Apparently I completely missed this post in which Hoopla pointed out the rule that I said I missed several posts later. Teach me to not read thoroughly before posting...

Anyway, this is a failwagon. Half of you aren't even saying "GO WAGON GO!" or "Same reasons as X, die Fate." etc.

Unvote

Vote: FeiFiFoFum/b] For speculating/voting about number picking right after Jack pointed out how counterproductive it is...

FOS: Hoopla

For doing the same thing.

[Fate]

@RC:

The Draft:

Once the order is done, you will then straight down the list attempt to pick a power role. If someone above you on the list has picked that role you will be vanilla.

Note: The mafia will be able to talk before the draft begins for a period of approximately 24 hours.

The roles:


fos dramonic and socrates for having this fake argument.

Since the "Note" containing the rule comes after the paragraph "Once the order is done" we might be able to infer that the mafia were only allowed to discuss role choices, not number choice. It isn't really clear,

BUT, it doesn't really matter. Number speculation is a waste of time. All that follows is WIFOM (Maybe scum had a few players all pick the same numbers as a perfect defense? Maybe they tried to spread things out to get more power?).

I'm willing to let it slide early game, but if people seriously start using this attack/defense later I'll policy vote their asses.

[Fate]

People who are rejecting the concept of number analysis are idiots. It is as much wifom as vote/wagon analysis and other mainstream scumhunting techniques.

We know scum were able to coordinate before/during the draft (despite a few people pleading ignorance to this, some genuine, some probably not). Lets think about it logically though. Some people are trying to sweep this under the wifom rug, and although there are options for scum to take, some are illogical and detrimental to scum's win condition.

Optimum scum strategy is to spread your numbers across 5 different X values, and try to pick up as many of the powerful roles as possible. This is probably the easiest way to cripple the town, by getting power on your side. However, scum may suspect town will figure out what their optimum strategy is, which lowers the effectiveness, and in turn scum may choose to throw the town off. However, there is only so far they can go, before giving too many roles to the town is a negative net result for them.

The good news for town is, we can already pick out unlikely combinations of scumpairs/teams based purely on numbers. At the very most scum would have doubled numbers once - any more than that leaves them too far down the draft. And frankly, if they have done that I'm thrilled because our roles will probably catch them before they can the reap the benefits of illogical number partners.

Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers. The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk of

probably

town players. This forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.

Assumptions are bad. If someone flips scum in the (1, 1) group, should we lynch you based on your own policy? What about the other pairs?

You really think scum is going to shoot 'probable townies' (based only off number choices, I might add) in lieu of probable power roles?

Another problem is that "optimum scum strategy" is the

same

as optimum town strategy. I picked numbers I didn't think anyone else would pick, worked out pretty well for me.

There are a lot more town than scum. This obscures the data. So far, the only unlikely "team" we can rule out is: Hoopla, TonyMontana, AND Dramonic.

So if two flip scum the third is automatically cleared? Call me a purist, but I rather rely on other, more traditional techniques. Instead of "follow the numbers." Also, if one of the "doubled up teams" (Pomegranate+Faraday, WRM+fifi, etc.) flips scum, we're supposed to grill the other one?

I'm sure there is some merit to your theory, such as more scrunity based off of it, but it shouldn't be relied on too heavily.

@Farside: I agree there is scum on my wagon. I predicted either a Socrates wagon or myself, as having either of us (prob PR) claim would be beneficial to scum. Though if your 'gut' goes off based off two one-liners from Bouncyx2, I'd be amazed.

Unvote

Vote: The1fifi

For post #66. Assuming my plan is to be lynched, and rolefishing.

[Fate]

But I want to ask what you think. As scum, would you deliberately bid the same number as a teammate? How would you organise your team's number choices? Because you know if you picked the same numbers, it's automatically going to ruin your chances of good roles. Do you think it's likely scum doubled somewhere? Or they are spread across 5 different numbers?

2) If they were smart, yes. This would be a pretty bad situation to be stuck in for them (the result of going after the singular/doubles);
StrangerCoug (3,1)
The1fifi (3,7)
wolframnhart (3,7)
Devotress (8,3)
Porkens (8,9)
DocPotter (8,10)
Ellibereth (1,2)
Dramonic (1,1)
Hoopla (1,1)
TonyMontana (1,1)
Farside (6,3)
curiouskarmadog (6,12)
Pomegranate (6,4)

Town could easily eliminate A LOT of possible scumteams if there are fewer brackets of numbers. I repeat, the scum WON'T be in the same 2-3 numbers.

I would definitely not pick the same number as my teammates. That is what I would do, but I don't know what scum in

this

game has done. Maybe they did spread their choices out, maybe they did double up. But people are selfish, who is going to agree "sure I'll double up and likely not get a role." Also the fact that they only had so much time to choose their numbers, I don't know if they debated the issue enough.

Call me "dumb" and "uncreative" all you want. I don't want to get to lylo, and see the town vote someone based off numbers, and then lose the game. It is comparable to outguessing the setup, in my mind. I also said there was "some merit" to your case, but not for use now.

So you do think scum will go after the less prob town roles with their kills, all right. Now I was reading the other game, and assume we have a vig. Who do you think a pro-town vig would aim for? Singulars? People doubled up? Why?

@Ellie: What do you think of the wagon on me? You're on that wagon, are you going to share your reasons? I know you're whole meta is "never post anything than two sentences, that way if I'm scum I can hide behind it." I also remember the game where you came out as a cop D2, saying "bah I hate being cop. Here's my investigation, see ya I'm dead tonight."

Great addition to town we have here -_-

[Fate]

Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look like

that

was my sole reasoning for my vote.

Simulpost. So you admit you really did vote me for being a singular number? I was hoping that was a last bit "RVS' joke...

[Fate]

Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look like

that

was my sole reasoning for my vote.

Simulpost. So you admit you really did vote me for being a singular number? I was hoping that was a last bit "RVS' joke...

It was a combination of reasons. I will likely want to lynch you or Socrates or a double today, and will probably pick the scummiest one of that set of players (barring significant slips from low draft picks). You are currently the scummiest of that set, for reasons outside number analysis.

Wow, you're serious? I found a contradiction ladies and gentlemen:

The good news for town is, we can already pick out unlikely combinations of scumpairs/teams based purely on numbers. At the very most scum would have doubled numbers once - any more than that leaves them too far down the draft. And frankly, if they have done that I'm thrilled because our roles will probably catch them before they can the reap the benefits of illogical number partners.

Yet you yourself just advocated lynching either Socrates or myself, who are the probably the ones with roles most beneficial to town. You are also giving too much weight to numbers. "Scummiest of that set, barring a significant scumslip..." so you are saying you are more likely to lynch me over scummy player X? You are only even looking at people who fit your "prequisites" for scum (either a singular # or a double) which is a fallacy.

What if one of the doubles is made a triple by chance from town? In that case,

all players

fit your categories. And here we are back at square 1: all players should be lynchable at this point, and you should pick the scummiest out of [i[everyone[/i]. Practically ignoring other players, barring a "significant scumslip (do these even happen these days?)" Thanks for sending a message to scum that they can cruise by today, since you won't be grilling them anyway based on their position.

Though, for all the critique of you I am doing, it is more likely that you are misguided town. I don't think scum have the balls to be under fire like you are this early.

[Fate]

Um, Hoopla, maybe I missed something you posted, but why would scum try to spread their numbers? If they pick the same numbers, they aren't automatically roleless. All they need to do is coordinate which

roles

to pick.

So why the hell did you bandwagon me if you didn't even understand all the reasons Hoopla voted me? (Which, I think, a BW vote implies unless other reasons are given for the vote)

Unvote

Vote: bouncy.bouncy

[Fate]

Hi fate, why did you cite fake meta?

Hey Elli, why is your memory so poor? Do I really have to go search for your

own

past games?

[Fate]

slippery slop of wifom.

Are you saying my question is WIFOM? My post wasn't just a rhetorical "why would mafia do that?"; it was attached to the idea that

I believed

"doing that" would have absolutely

zero

strategic value for the mafia. As far as I know, WIFOM is only in play when both sides of the argument have some strategic value for the mafia.

I genuinely saw no reason for why mafia would want to pick different numbers.

What. The. Hell? You can't think of a reason mafia would want to pick different numbers? You think they would all pick the same one?

HOWEVER, I didn't think the scenarios through before I posted that. My theory was wrong and Hoopla's was right. So I'm not going to make that argument anymore.

ORL what was it that fate said that no townie would say?

"Hmmm... Any scum want to claim and tell us?"

Really? Ok, thanks for sharing with me one the unwritten rules of MS. Townies with brains are forbidden from making jokes. (/SARCASM, by the way.)

[Fate]

Hi fate, why did you cite fake meta?

Hey Elli, why is your memory so poor? Do I really have to go search for your

own

past games?

It's funny because I haven't been cop yet
It's even funnier because you're still stubborn enough to believe that you're right.

Ok I'll go find it then, just because I want to show you the egg on your face. You replaced into a game and were a cop, now give me a few minutes.

[Fate]

Well I'll find it one of these days, heading to work now. Either way, a game in which someone with a female sounding name replaced someone during N1 and then came in D2 and claimed cop with a guilty exists.

Somewhere out there.

I'm not crazy I swear...

[Fate]

@DocPower: I must have mixed up FFFF with someone else. It was just a joke vote anyway.

Also the person my current vote is on brought up vengeful here:

@Fate : How come is everything going accord to plan? How can someone's plan be : Getting Lynched? Well, i see only one role that benefits from being lynched, and that is vengeful. Lets take a look..

Townie Vengeful :

-Has no point in wanting to be lynched so early on, cause its more than like ly he would revenge kill a townie.

-Has scum : A 100% chance of removing a town aligned player...

Vote Fate

and 4 big Fos at Ellibereth

1. "Hmmm, I think Fate is breadcrumbing vengeful, and only scum would want to be lynched as vengeful."

2. /Proceeds to lynch me.

Anyone else see the stupidity in this? His argument against me is that I am scum because I "hinted" at vengeful (hint: I didn't), and then he proceeds to vote said vengeful?

Last time I checked, you DON'T want to lynch the vengeful. You want to vig them. Failarguements are always a good scumslip.

[Fate]

Haven't read past this, but this needs to be addressed immediately.

And yeah, you kinda do want to lynch a vengeful Fate. It gives town a double lynch during the day. Why would you not utilise it?

Um. What? Fifi voted me saying that I was scum vengeful, which gives scum an extra townie kill, not town an extra lynch. I am voting him because his thinking is contradictory, he wants to give scum an extra kill? Hopefully you misunderstood the premise, otherwise there is a serious flaw here.

[Fate]

EDWOP: Damn. The above quote is from Faraday, by the way.

[Fate]

Ok, I now understand the benefits of lynching a vengeful. Better to do it now than at a more critical point, and trading 1-1 is in favor of town.

Unvote

FOS: Jack, Pom

Jack: You haven't responded to Socrates post "What do YOU think about Fate?"

Pom: HoS, but in your catchup I didn't see any points against me, other than you were willing to lynch me.

[Fate]

^For the record, are you saying you want to see me put at L-1 and claim, Hoopla?

[Fate]

Hello all, see I've finally gotten to L-1.

I clarified it in the following post. I just meant that it seems as though people are opening up to Hoopla's plan, because I certainly do not see any other reason for Fate's wagon to be as large as it is. There was no scumslip, so far as I can tell.

Scum are scared of the numbers and are bussing Fate hard. Either that, or they're wagoning Fate to protect Socrates - I haven't come to a definite conclusion just yet. Either way, I agree that the speed of this wagon implies there is quite probably a decent amount of scum on it. I hope it's because of bussing.

~~

A sidenote; it's funny how all the people wanting to do traditional scumhunting aren't really doing much of it at all.

First off, this is bullshit. "Scared of numbers?" Scum are bussing me hard? Because the "slip" I made (what was that again? I don't remember because I'm not scum in the first place).

Why would scum buss their (most likely, unless you want to think both Socrates and I are scum) TOP draft choice?

Answer that, please.

Vote: Hoopla

I'll tell you what scum is really doing, on the other hand, and that is bandwagoning in full force to get the #2 PR to claim.

And guess what: No.

[Fate]

I'll put you at L-1 because I didn't get your inital vote on me to begin with, nor did I get why you said things were going as plan.

vote: Fate

Another great person to look at. OMGUS L-1? L-1 because you don't understand my 'plan'? (Hint: it is to out scum).

My plan worked, very well I might add. I can see with 99% confidence that there are

multiple

scum on my wagon. I'd like to think at least 3, because my behavior so far hasn't been enough to warrant this huge of a legitimate 'scumhunt' wagon.

[Fate]

God this number talk really did bite us in the ass. 5 pages of me being at L-3 and all people are talking about is number speculation.

Though, I did find this gem. His name is dramonic:

Yes, I'm obviously in dire need of being told that <_<

I'm trying to get accross to you that while Fate is scummy anyways, so his lynch is a pretty sure thing, I will eventually push for statistically good lynches, wether you dont like em stats or not.

Also, if you agree with the theory why dont you want to use it?

Read an iso of him. The first mention of him thinking of me as scum is "nothing really much happened except Fate being scummy___"-paraphrased.

And in the quoted post he sees my lynch as a "sure thing." Really? I thought the way we did things here around MS was to vote someone, ask questions, see how they react, try to get a read, if they get worse and worse push to L-1, let them claim, evaluate claim, then lynch.

You're skipping a lot of those steps, pal. So much so you deserved your own post, as I'm still going to make a list shortly.

Your complete devotion to Hoopla's (guess what, Hoopla may be scum!) strategy is noted as well. Are you voting me because of your complete agreement with this flawed plan? (It is the equivalent of saying, "yeah I did a die roll. Let's lynch X because we have a 30% chance of lynching scum!) Or are you voting me because of how "scummy I am" (still never really pointed that out.)

HoS: Dramonic

More suspicions to follow, if anyone else besides RayFrost is awake around now.

[Fate]

I hope you don't take it personally, but I believe scum are spread 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-2, which means for me, you or Socrates are the highest percentage lynch. I play mafia to win, and your lynch gives the best odds for Day 1.

Personally? How could I take it "personal?" You're voting me, and (per your own words) are persuading other people to vote me based off my luck in the draft, not anything personal. So sure, none taken.

I hope you take this personally though:

Stop. Tunneling. Get off your high horse. We get it, your statistics are right. Using them to advocate lynching me may have even made scum jump at an "easy lynch"-a justifiable target. Dramonic seems the biggest offender of this.

But you're glaringly missing the percentages I have for holding an important role. I think we can I agree there is a better chance that I am a PR than I am scum, right?

Here, let me try another approach to get through to you. Hoopla, in regular mafia games, what is your approach to Power roles? Let's put all the numbers and PYP and everything aside for a moment, just to humor me, and tell me: What would you do in this situation?:

1. We have Fate, at L-1, softclaimed PR.
2. We have many votes on him that are suspicious.

How do you proceed?

[Fate]

Ok, back to your regularly scheduled bandwagon review:

Porkens- Voted with no reasons given. Says he won't let his "FoS" get away. After this he posts no 'town probing' posts towards either me or his FoS. He just talks about the numbers, the setup, etc.

Bouncy- No reason given. See RayFrost's "lol 3 posts, 0 content." Later gives the reason as me saying something "no townie would ever say" when all I said was clearly a joke. Never responds to me pointing out it was a joke.

Cobalt- "Approves" of my Bandwagon. Scum bomb is good for town, because it would kill the vig too. Supports a "jack, fate, or hoopla" lynch. Talks about last PYP and setup.

Devotress- Votes me for being scummy. Disagrees with use of numbers. One of the better votes on me.

thef1f1- Votes me thinking my 'plan' relates to me being a vengeful. At least he gives a reason.

Faraday-Votes me for being scummy. Doesn't like the numbers speculation. Appears to be scumhunting. Asks where dram's vote is.

Socrates-votes me for implying he is scum/BP if not dead after day one (that was a joke by the way, see the way I spelled "srsly"). Talks about the setup, numbers, etc. Asks Jack what he thinks about me.

Ellie- votes without a reason. Asks questions of other players. Appears to be scumhunting. Hates the 'percentages' post.

I think that's all. My vote on Hoopla has served it's purpose since he came in here and answered my question. I'm still leaning misguided town on you Hoopla, you stubborn bastard.

Unvote

Vote: Dramonic

[Fate]

EBWODP: Change all instances of referring to Hoopla as 'he' to 'she' (thought you fell into the Ellibereth, danakillsu category of usernames, sorry.)

Ray, the game wouldn't really get anywhere if you were allowed to vote people for things you were you doing yourself, though. Why did you feel the need vote if you were fully aware of the hypocrisy?

Ray is contributing to the game. He is observing. I am pretty confident that he is getting good reads off this wagon, if he's town, and he's staying off it, if he's scum. Either way I have a meta on him as 'intelligent' so I don't see the hypocrisy.

Number of posts? Sure. Content? Yeah. But look me in the eyes and say that RF's posts and bouncy.bouncy's are on the same level...

[Fate]

I'm not really suited to large games, if anyone can tell. Too many ***ing names. Bouncy has what amounts to 3 posts as well, which is probably why I confused them.

I also left FFFF out of my list above, though I did point him out in #234, I'll do it better here.

FeFiFoFum-Votes me because I voted him earlier (I voted him for FOSing based off Socrates being #1, right after Jack said to put the number speculation to the side), which he "didn't like" for no given reason.

i did mistype my post, I was agreeing with the before statement of hoopla, since scum could talk before hand they were allowed to make sure they didnt pick the same number

That's his second post. And his third is way up there putting me at L-1. Yay for an easy iso.

Useless? Most likely. Scummy? Well, an L-1 vote isn't something you just do offhand for those reasons, so yeah scummy. I still think Dramonic is worse.

[Fate]

I already said your numbers are fine. You're relying too much on them. You've allowed people to bandwagon me based off these theories (which, imo, is good. It is how I found dramonic as target #1). Now keep your damn megaposts to yourself.

That's your way of scumhunting, fine. I hope you aren't too self-important to disagree that latching on to your way of thinking and voting because of it is bad.

Now, outside of your numbers, I am still the scummiest 'single' number? Oh wait, you wouldn't know. You haven't scumhunted for half the topic, you've spent it defending and explaining them in head-banging posts.

We get it. I'm not trash-talking your theory anymore. It is there and it will always be a huge part of who you are willing to lynch. Now the draft order and # choices are permanent,

now

can you focus on other techniques, (which I hope you have) for catching scum?

What do you think of my wagon? Is it just a product of your 'flawless' numbers analysis that have convinced half the town? Well, in my iso readings, a few of the votes on me disagreed with you...

[Fate]

For those of you that, like me, saw Socrates vote and said, "huh?" and reread her, I found this quote which directly contradicts what Socrates quoted:

The problem with this is that the cop is outed, and likely killed that night. Yes, there is a doctor. But there's also an empowerer. Or he's roleblocked. I don't think it's worth it to out a cop, because once he's outed, it's unlikely he'll get any investigations. I don't think we should find scum this way. As said previously, by Elli, if I'm not mistaken, it should be treated like meta- a good addition to a case, but not a case of iy's own.

Pom, if you agree that outing Town PR is bad, not just a cop but I'm sure you'll agree other roles being outed are bad, why did you want a claim from me?

Was I really probscum enough to outweigh the disadvantages of me being town PR? If I was, why wasn't your vote on me?

FOS: Pom

You are scummy, your defense sounds like that of a man whose back is against the wall and instead of trying to divert the wagon by scumhunting, you are lashing out at me.

The theory is just a theory, but you are the scummiest AND possess quite decent odd of being scum by stats.

Looks like you're scum stuck with suspecting me, so this is the best you can come up with? Scumhunting=scummy, apparently.

Do you play russian roulette? By the stats, you're much more likely to hit it rich than die...

[Fate]

Looks like the fate wagon has run it's course.

FOS EVERYONE WHOS JUMPING OFF OMG (I haven't actually looked ath the names of who was on / is jumping off but if there are then there ya go)

So are you going to jump off? Are you going to self-FOS?

Since it has run its course, you'd be a hypocrite not to jump off yourself.
If you want to leave it on, please elaborate on the reasons you think I am scum (since you never did in the first place).

FOS: Porkens

[Fate]

Wow, I'm dazzled by how quickly Fate's wagon has evaporated. I still wouldn't be opposed to lynching him, but it makes me think scum were trying to protect Socrates via a Fate wagon;

Unvote, vote: Socrates

I'm not forgetting you, Fate.

I'm not forgetting that you're #2 in the draft order, as there was barely anything scummy about you, Fate*

*Fixed.

[Fate]

Wow, I'm dazzled by how quickly Fate's wagon has evaporated. I still wouldn't be opposed to lynching him, but it makes me think scum were trying to protect Socrates via a Fate wagon;

Unvote, vote: Socrates

I'm not forgetting you, Fate.

I'm not forgetting that you're #2 in the draft order, as there was barely anything scummy about you, Fate*

*Fixed.

A watcher watches two players visit the house of a townie who is murdered - don't tell me you wouldn't use that information against a player, even if there was barely anything scummy about them.

Damn right I would. Then they turn around and claim: Cop, Tracker, etc.

"Barely anything scummy about them" + "Claim that fits"="oh ok, I'll back off now."

See what I did there? I didn't 'follow the Watcher' and completely forget about my read on the person. Using your numbers against me is fine, I was just highlighting the fact that that is

all

your case consists of. Well, at the least, you never built on your earlier suspicions of me being 'scummy.' All you even did when I made posts at L-1 was talk about numbers, some more, and not about my defense posts.

I've already FOS'd you though, so no point beating a dead horse.

[Fate]

Fate post 53:

Vote: FeiFiFoFum For speculating/voting about number picking right after Jack pointed out how counterproductive it is...

Does this make sense? Where did Jack point out that it was couterproductive and how is it counterproductive?

I've said this before. It looks like you've read the thread well enough, but I guess you missed it? Jack said, in one of his first posts, "let's hold off on number speculation for now. I feel that it accomplished nothing."

It is counterproductive, which I said in one of my back and forth posts with Hoopla, because of how much it detracts from scumhunting. 5 pages worth of posts (iirc) about the stuff while I was at L-3 and no one was really mentioning me.

Lets not forget bouncy post 104 saying he voted for fate for something no townie would say and that was: Hmmm... Any scum want to claim and tell us?"
I really don't get why fate is voted for dramonic in post 242

Probably because you need to read 239 first. I was posting as I was reviewing people on my BW.

Read an iso of him. The first mention of him thinking of me as scum is "nothing really much happened except Fate being scummy___"-paraphrased.

And in the quoted post he sees my lynch as a "sure thing." Really? I thought the way we did things here around MS was to vote someone, ask questions, see how they react, try to get a read, if they get worse and worse push to L-1, let them claim, evaluate claim, then lynch.

You're skipping a lot of those steps, pal. So much so you deserved your own post, as I'm still going to make a list shortly.

Your complete devotion to Hoopla's (guess what, Hoopla may be scum!) strategy is noted as well. Are you voting me because of your complete agreement with this flawed plan? (It is the equivalent of saying, "yeah I did a die roll. Let's lynch X because we have a 30% chance of lynching scum!) Or are you voting me because of how "scummy I am" (still never really pointed that out.)
HoS: Dramonic

I agree with you on Bouncy, and Porkens though. Porkens continues to joke and not contribue anything, while Bouncy's vote on me was and still is complete bull***. I'll support either of those lynches but I want more people's thoughts on Dramonic.

[Fate]

Devotress, who do you think is scum and why aren't you voting them?

[Fate]

...

I should read them roles...

Vote: Fate

Actually nvm. RayFrost made me go back and see if he had unvoted me, but he didn't

Mod: Votals don't include dramonic's vote. (But they did when I was at L-1 so don't kill me!)

[Fate]

There's way too many good lynches out there.

Pom-wanted me to claim
Dramonic-Noted earlier
FFFF-L-1 omgus (what the hell do you mean bandwagons are useless on you?)
bouncy.bouncy-doesn't want to contribute except BWing me

I think Pom is in the lead, but these should be looked at as well.

[Fate]

Pretty much. She had a wall of quotes text in which she voted Hoopla, then HoS: Fate and Jack.

Then she did this when someone else asked for my claim:

I believe it is a good time for you to claim, Fate.

I think that he should claim, even though I don't agree with Hoopla's plan that prompted this.

That's about it. That list was in no particular order, btw.

[Fate]

[
To end off, the logic on my wagon is FAIL. It's made up of two things, if I'm not mistaken:

- I didn't want Fate to be lynched without claiming
- I said that I find it possible that not all the scum were able to coordinate draft numbers.

1. You didn't threaten to hammer me, and say "claim" and I was in no danger of being lynched (as anyone with common sense can see).
2. I agree with you that it is unlikely they fully co-ordinated. I have other reasons for voting you though:

Unvote

Vote: Pom

No wagon is ever fail. I welcomed my wagon and it was based off even less than yours (imo), and look at all the information it brought.

[Fate]

farside, look at post 186:

I'm going to treat the number thing like meta, i.e. it can help a case but behavior in thread is still numero uno.

^^^ This.

I think numbers are good. I just think scumhunting is better. If there's a reasonable case that combines both, then it's all good.

And you're right, my vote on Hoopla is out of date.

Unvote

.

So.... you voted Hoopla because you thought numbers were bad and detracting from scumhunting. You realize that that isn't really a good reason to vote someone and now you unvote, but you don't have any further suspicions.

Yeah, my vote stays.

@Hoopla:

Fefi - Undercontributing, and made a very bad vote to get onto the Fate wagon. I think a lot of scum were on Fate's wagon, and he's probably one.

Again your logic escapes me. A lot of scum were on my wagon, yet you still suspect me? Hardcore bussing of #2 power role to look good later on (even though half the wagon, had any real reasons that they could later look back on and say "hey I was right!") doesn't seem plausible to me right now, no matter what my role is. Even if I'm vanilla scum such a buss wouldn't be the right play as the first wagon of the day...

[Fate]

@Hoopla:

Fefi - Undercontributing, and made a very bad vote to get onto the Fate wagon. I think a lot of scum were on Fate's wagon, and he's probably one.

Again your logic escapes me. A lot of scum were on my wagon, yet you still suspect me? Hardcore bussing of #2 power role to look good later on (even though half the wagon, had any real reasons that they could later look back on and say "hey I was right!") doesn't seem plausible to me right now, no matter what my role is. Even if I'm vanilla scum such a buss wouldn't be the right play as the first wagon of the day...

I suspect you on the basis if scum went 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-2, you have a 54% and 46% chance of being scum (respectively). Although your wagon is probably scum driven, the odds I believe (numbers) probably eclipse this other belief (a lot of scum on your wagon). It's possible they are bussing, it's possible they are protecting Socrates via a Fate wagon, or it's possible you're both town. Bussing is a viable possibility late in the wagon, maybe 7th onward - it's a reasonable expectation for a wagon to go through when it reaches that point, and scum may have thought it was better to cut their losses. I don't see scum starting your wagon though.

I've recently admitted Socrates is a better choice than you now, due to my hunch that your wagon was scum-fueled, but it still doesn't hide the numbers which override a lot of other less significant data.

Socrates posted this before.

Since numbers "override" a lot of other data, i.e., everything fucking else about mafia.

Your proposal is that we lynch straight down the list all singular numbers right? And you think this is a viable way to play D1?

[Fate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 2 - RedCoyote, Devotress - (L-10)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 5 - Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, The1fifi, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-7)

FeFiFoFum

- 4 - Rayfrost, Faraday, wolframnhart, DocPotter - (L-8)

Hoopla

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 5 - Socrates, Farside, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Fate - (L-7)

Socrates

- 2 - StrangerCoug, Hoopla - (L-10)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting: Pomegranate

So FFFF and Pom as competing wagons, hmm. I like the people on the Pom wagon a lot better.

The majority of people on the FFFF wagon are "Active lurking" scum imo, who just came in to vote a competing wagon. Course we don't know that until after Pom flips, but meh.

I still think it says something that I like most of the people on Pom's wagon (with the exception of Cobalt, you minimal poster you).

Let's not forget the scum still on my wagon that are afraid to jump off and be called on it: i.e.

Dramonic, Porkens, and bouncy

Porkens especially since he was "sincerely disappointed" that town didn't have the balls to quicklynch me D1 with <10 pages... and then FOSing anyone who came off it.

[Fate]

well i didnt understand the process of the draft..obviously so, since I was at the last of the draft...

so many wagons already. am I surprised that the wagons are on people close to the top of the draft?...no, those are probably the better roles that scum want eliminated. at any rate..

vote wolf

, cause I got a day 1 feeling.

here is an interest tid bit of information I asked the mod while during the draft process (maybe it was in the rules, but I missed it)...mafia could talk all during that drafting process...so if they are smart, they have even more information than usual.

Also, who are you and why have you voted Wolf and done nothing to further suspicion on him?

You haven't asked him a single question in your ten (estimating) posts. Nor have you posed any other real suspicions.

FFS, too many good wagons. This is why I like small games...

[Fate]

Ellibereth, once you have something for me to defend against, I'd like to hear it. (If my activity is bothersome, I find it bothersome to myself too. However, the game's still a bit over my head.)

Over your head? I'll make it easier for you.

Ignore Hoopla's posts.

Easier to find scum now?

[Fate]

EBWODP:

Also, I have something to for you to defend against. You look scummy because you don't have any suspicions. Now that you're well again, do you have anything to contribute?

[Fate]

If I ignore Hoopla, then my two strong scum reads become Socrates and Pomegranate. Socrates I have the better support for, but what I have on Pomegranate is basically hearsay, which is not grounds for me to want to jump on a wagon.

Unvote

in case I need to.

I dunt get this post.

Fate asked if ignoring Hoopla would make it easier to scumhunt. I replied that not taking Hoopla into account would make Socrates and Pomegranate scum in my mind. While I think Pomegranate has the bigger wagon, I can more easily post a case on Socrates. I don't want to just take everybody's word for it and vote Pomegranate—I'd rather look into her first. (I'm doing that right now, by the way.)

Instead of looking in to her, please post this 'easy' case on Socrates.
I'd be very interested in that.

@Ellie: Yeah let's just quicklynch a lurker. Hell why we're at it, let's do the lurker highest up on the list as they have the highest prob of being scum! LOLDIEBOUNCYDIE
/endsarcasm

[Fate]

This wagon is fail as hell. Thanks for making yourselves more obvscum, Porkens and Cobalt.

Let's not derail the wagon on their scumbuddy Pom...

[Fate]

1) I honestly didn't think about it. I'm not really the most in-depth strategizer myself, so that could be why.
2) I didn't work either of your math's out in my head, though I'm sure they both are mathematically and logically sound, they are both

less than relevant

in my eyes.

[Fate]

slippery slop of wifom.

Are you saying my question is WIFOM? My post wasn't just a rhetorical "why would mafia do that?"; it was attached to the idea that

I believed

"doing that" would have absolutely

zero

strategic value for the mafia. As far as I know, WIFOM is only in play when both sides of the argument have some strategic value for the mafia. I genuinely saw no reason for why mafia would want to pick different numbers.

HOWEVER, I didn't think the scenarios through before I posted that. My theory was wrong and Hoopla's was right. So I'm not going to make that argument anymore.

ORL what was it that fate said that no townie would say?

"Hmmm... Any scum want to claim and tell us?"

I still think you're reason for voting me is complete and utter ***. Especially since you didn't even list this reason when you first voted me. At least have some balls and vote me just for the wagon, like Porkens or Cobalt.

I don't think Pom will claim anything but vanilla anyway, but I still don't want to lynch someone that isn't here. Bouncy is on a few people's "lists" as lynch-able too. (Hey Hoopla! Look he's #3 on the list!)

Unvote: Pom

Vote: Bouncy.bouncy

[Fate]

Too many V/LAs+Wagons falling apart+More Mathtalk=

More and more frustrated by this game.

Ellie what changed your minds?

Is it the fact that wagons formed on them, therefore scum are on those wagons? If that's your theory no one should ever be lynched...

Glad to see Jack sees my point on dramonic.

[Fate]

FFFF= easily confused with f1f1.
I almost forgot about him and his horrible L-1...

Unvote: Bouncy

Vote: FeFiFoFum

I hope we can all agree to get on bouncy tomorrow if he continues to be... unenthusiastic?

@Hoopla: Don't act as if dying is going to prove your 'numbers' theory is spot on. Scum can kill you just to make it seem that way and mislead town... (Hint: Watch for Hoopla dying and Dramonic trying to take up the mantle to lynch me tommorow).

[Fate]

Oh this is lightness isn't it.... heh. Thanks for the reminder, mod.

[Fate]

or nightless*

[Fate]

Looking forward to Pom's future contributions. Same goes for Ray Frost, Porkens, etc.

For now,

Vote: bouncy.bouncy

Don't have much of a case on wolf, hasn't posted a whole lot.

[Fate]

Vote: Socrates

Do I need to repeat it?

No you need to add to it. I know one other, Jack I think, said "O RLY? You have a case on Socrates?" along with me when you first brought it up.

It's still weak.

FOS: StrangerCoug

Also NK speculation (lulz): Top two slots might get protection. Go down a little further, bouncy may be scum, ok Cobalt. Someone vigged Dramonic, who was looking scummy D1.

[Fate]

Um. Frost.... we're on D2. FFFF is dead.

*DIES LAUGHING*

[Fate]

Ellie, for the nth time I don't see any town ANYWHERE using this argument against someone else:

Quote:
ORL what was it that fate said that no townie would say?
"Hmmm... Any scum want to claim and tell us?"

Taking a joke seriously and using it as reason to vote... I've done that before. As scum.

@Jack: Last three posts? Let's see... "Cobalt F1f1 distancing theory" Well, actually, F1f1 (Cobalt flipped tracker, so not distancing) looks bad just because of that FFFF vote.

Also, I'd like to point out the starting point of the FFFF wagon: Post #478, Faraday. His only reasoning is, "changed my mind people" and then people join him in quick succession.

[Fate]

It ruins the 'lol he fails' meta on me. >.>"

I missed this the first time I was laughing. Excuse me,

HAHAHAAAAHAHAHPRICELESS

[Fate]

TM is definately the worst offender when it comes to jumping on a BW to vote for FFF. Redcoyote and faraday were both on bouncy before moving to FFFF. So if bouncy isn't scum I could see those who were on the bouncy wagon jumping onto the FFF wagon to give it the fuel to go.

This. Bouncy's flips gives us major insight to the jump to the FFF wagon. We can look into RC, Faraday, TM, etc... And if bouncy flips town we can see their moves as townish (If they were scum they would've stayed on bouncy, as he was the most ideal mislynch in terms of draft order.)

[Fate]

I maintain that bouncy is town.

I maintain that bouncy has done nothing to prove towniness, besides a few "posts" that you don't think scum would make.

He still hasn't scumhunted. Worthless town who's flip provides town with good information on multiple players? Let's go people!

[Fate]

I don't get how you're confused.

If bouncy flips town, I would've expected scum to stay on the more likely power role. This means the first few to switch the wagon (Wolf, Faraday) are more likely town than those who pounced on later.

[Fate]

If bouncy flips town, I'm voting Fate. Too coincidental. The people who stuck on the Fate vote are either dead or leading the vote count.

That doesn't prove anything other than they were stubborn town? When I die and flip town, are you willing to vote who ever I had my vote stuck on?

Seems like an excuse to vote me without actually coming up with a case on me...

[Fate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 10

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 7 - Fate, wolframnhart, Devotress, RedCoyote, The1fifi, StrangerCoug, Hoopla - (L-3)

Ellibereth

- 1 - Farside - (L-9)

Pomegranate

- 2 - Socrates, Porkens - (L-8)

wolframnhart

- 2 - Jack, Ellibereth - (L-8)

Players not voting: Bouncy.Bouncy, curiouskarmadog, DocPotter, Faraday, Pomegranate, Rayfrost, TonyMontana

Well for starters the chance that you are scum goes to around 60%

So you openly admit that your whole argument only adds a measly 6% chance to my already high chance of being scum?

Weak I tell you!

*continues to wait for Pom's reading of the game*

[Fate]

Ironic. I don't believe in coincidences either...

[Fate]

Bullshit.

Your vote stays on me all day, and you don't even investigate me? If you thought I was scum, wouldn't you want to see if I had a scum role to back it up?

Hoopla's theory sounds about right. I could definitely see him using a lower down's role in order to protect himself (the better PR).

You also ADMIT that your role is next to useless in PYP. Why the hell did you choose it with #3 slot?

And then you ADMIT you randomly choose your night target.

Hoopla, you unvote after saying "lol town is afraid to lynch power roles." Look a single number just claimed a BS power role, and you let it slide? Definitely looking worse and worse.

FOS

Devo, Farside, Hoopla, for unvoting.

[Fate]

Well, lets try and believe in bouncy

unvote

.
Going that way..
I think she shouldn't tell ray's role, cause its already one townie that claimed, and we can't afford give scum more info. But.. that is IF Ray is town.

@Ray: I know you don't post much on almost every game of you, but i'd be very interested in hearing from you. Whats your opinion about bouncy?

@Bouncy: Wouldn't it make more sense to target one of the top roles? Maybe you could have dound out the cop/vig, or something similar, and be able to unmask fake claims, since cop/vig are common claims when under pressure.

I missed this line of thinking. Bouncy is far from L-1 now, if you had issues with his claim like I did, why did you unvote?

@Bouncy: Do you think telling us Ray's role will help town or scum? Surely a player as great as you can figure that one out, or are you just going to give Ray the benefit of the doubt?

[Fate]

EDWOP: I missed this post** not line of thinking.

[Fate]

Hmmm. Yeah I figured Ray Frost shouldn't claim. Still waiting for Bouncy

[Fate]

Actually if bouncy is scum like I think, then Frost revealing will be giving town information that scum have.

You probably are dead tonight Ray. Might as well claim and hope a doctor protects your or something...

[Fate]

Are you suggesting bouncy fakeclaimed Role cop? Now that would take some balls.
Might as well get a read on Frost and have him claim first.

[Fate]

Jailkeeper isn't in this game http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 38&start=0

I agree we bouncy looks worse at this point, and should answer all the questions, but here's how I see it:

1. Bouncy's scum.
1a. Scum already knows RF's role
1b. Scum fakeclaimed Role Cop to out the real role cop, and try to get RF to claim

2. Bouncy's town.
2a. Frost reveals his information before he gets NK'd, doc'd, etc.
2b. Frost doesn't reveal, leaves scum guessing.

I think 1b is the most unlikely situation, as bouncy didn't look

so

bad that he would need to resort to last minute measures like that.

I think bouncy is scum more than town, pending his answers that I probably won't be satisfied with, which is why I lean on 1a.

Though 2b is a better situation for town, 1a is more likely at this point, imo.

[Fate]

*Wiki's Ray Frost*

Hmmmm. I think I know what you are now, don't see why scum would be that. Unless you are

that

in which case... No, I'm pretty sure you're the first one.

[Fate]

Bad rolefishing, farside.

If someone was the neighborizer, they would connect themselves with another player. If they revealed themselves in the thread, the neigborizer (Most likely town, but I could see scum messing around with this role as well) would be outed.

[Fate]

Blatant rolefishing says what?

I'm starting to like you >_>'

[Fate]

Rolefishing is worse than roleouting?

Shouldn't you be on the bouncy wagon, Ray?

[Fate]

PROGRESS YAY! BOUNCIES READY TO DIE!

RANDOM.ORG FOR NIGHT ACTIONS? HOLY HELL.

KILL THIS WITH FIRE!

[Fate]

="Bouncy"] don't know whether it will help town or scum. How about you show me logically who it will benefit so that you can make me look like a moron?

Besides the last part not making sense,

I agree we bouncy looks worse at this point, and should answer all the questions, but here's how I see it:

1. Bouncy's scum.
1a. Scum already knows RF's role
1b. Scum fakeclaimed Role Cop to out the real role cop, and try to get RF to claim

2. Bouncy's town.
2a. Frost reveals his information before he gets NK'd, doc'd, etc.
2b. Frost doesn't reveal, leaves scum guessing.

I think 1b is the most unlikely situation, as bouncy didn't look

so

bad that he would need to resort to last minute measures like that.

I think bouncy is scum more than town, pending his answers that I probably won't be satisfied with, which is why I lean on 1a.

Though 2b is a better situation for town, 1a is more likely at this point, imo.

I already did. Just claim what RFrost is... *sigh*

[Fate]

For anyone that doesn't like their arguments posted in all caps, I'll offer you this:

Would anyone, with any sane mind, in any game of mafia, investigate someone's role based completely at random?

Maybe?

Ok.

Would anyone, with any sane mind, in

this

game of mafia, where the bottom picks on the draft list have a considerable less chance of having a role than others, investigate their target at random?

I especially want to hear from Ellie, who has been maintaining town bouncy so far, and only poked in to mention farsides' rolefishing.

[Fate]

No. 2b is if you're both town, and you don't reveal his role nor does he, so scum doesn't find out.

[Fate]

1. Oh ok, I know X player is vanilla. Oh look, the rare situation in which they claimed and I'm still alive has occurred. He's fakeclaiming! He's a vanilla!

2. Hm I investigated a Cop/Tracker/Watcher, and they are pushing for X's lynch. I think I'll follow on with my own reasoning, since I know that person's role

3. Hm I investigated a Vig and town has died for the past three nights, I wonder if should claim what I know to get them lynched?

Which situations are more valuable, bouncy?

[Fate]

bouncy, claim your result.

unless you are claiming you got VT on me?

Tracker

Knew it. Yay breadcrumbing... (i.e., Ray Frost you really haven't been power in the games listed in your wiki often...)

[Fate]

I am, in fact, a tracker.

want my target, etc?

Depends on who you tracked

[Fate]

Well I don't think you'll die tonight, but they might have an empowerer or something, so might as well claim. (Guesses: "went nowhere" result)

[Fate]

As for 2. maybe that person is scum, so why would I follow them?
As for 3. maybe they are town and guessed wrong for the past three nights

Ok scumlogic now, this should be easier to counter:
Version2.

2. If you follow a cop onto a lynch, and the person flips incorrectly? I wonder what you infer?
3. If a vig has been bad at guessing, are they still a pro-town force? Shouldn't one inform town who the bad vig is so town can direct the kills?

As for not knowing what to do, we don't accept the newbcard here in PYP town. You're #3,

PICK

a role you know how to play, or one that requires no playing at all (Bulletproof, etc.)

Not much more we can get out of today. Even Pom will come in and just buss bouncy, so no more point waiting for her catch-up post anymore either.

[Fate]

No. With night actions and roleclaims come legitimate reasons to investigate people.

I don't know why I'm still debating with you, maybe just to make sure the rest of town is 100% convinced.

Me saying something "no townie would ever say" is

not

a legitimate reason to investigate me?

Same goes for your f1f1 vote (which farside pointed out, I had forgotten about that)

[Fate]

I retract what I said about bouncy looking town. This very much sounds like his scum partner is the role cop. The scum partner had a reason for picking ray frost, but bouncy doesn't know what it is-->so he claims to have used random.org.

Why didn't you vote bouncy?

[Fate]

Did I miss something from Ray from here or you talking about earlier when he voted for me fate?

unvote, vote: bouncy

your explanation is good enough.

I believe he is referring to your explanation of the rolefishing you were accused of.

Jack we've heard enough. What do you think?

[Fate]

Bouncy if you were allowed to live, who would you investigate and why?

[Fate]

As a side note, I propose everyone confirm they have read all that has happened before we lynch bouncy.

Just because I doubt half of the PR's got their night actions in yet...

[Fate]

And the whole asking "why" back and forth just proves my point.

You are town, right bouncy? Who would you investigate tonight?

[Fate]

Failing that, anybody who hints at a role D2.

I'll tell you what scum is really doing, on the other hand, and that is bandwagoning in full force to get the #2 PR to claim.

And guess what: No.

[Fate]

YOU ROLECOP YOUR SCUM SUSPECTS BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES WHO ARE GOING TO LIE ABOUT THEIR ROLE.

That is all.

^scum... coaching bouncy.

If bouncy actually flips role cop, we can look into Socrates as #1 scum pick.

No one put bouncy at L-1. He will self-hammer to try to stop PRs from sending in actions.

PRs: Catch up and send in action.

[Fate]

Unvote:

Bah Porkens....

[Fate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 10

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 8 - wolframnhart, RedCoyote, StrangerCoug, Faraday, Farside, Rayfrost, The1fifi, Porkens - (L-2)

Pomegranate

- 1 - Socrates - (L-9)

Rayfrost

- 1 - Hoopla - (L-9)

The1fifi

- 1 - Bouncy.Bouncy - (L-9)

wolframnhart

- 2 - Jack, Ellibereth - (L-8)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Devotress, DocPotter, Fate, Pomegranate, TonyMontana

[Pffft. He's at L-2 and Fate is right about everyone checking in before he is lynched. Putting him at L-1 could let him selfhammer and the town lose out on night actions.

I missed this post and all of the ones after that before I posted #773... please disregard that post >_<;

[Fate]

I don't think it was a bad investigation...Ray was in my scumlist...
But he probably would make up an excuse if he was scum, Ray was unreadable to him, or something like that...

Ellie, scum defense this late in the game is bad. Stop being stubborn.

I would've expected scum to make up an excuse as well, but what he is doing is worse.

On the slim chance he is dumb town, do we want him outing more power roles? RayFrost is either going to be RB'd, empower killed, etc. now, and he didn't have enough time to have good investigations.

Is town bouncy even scumhunting at all? He has done nothing but try to defend his horrible stance with futile arguments.

The fact that you are ignoring his obvscum status, makes me think you are stubborn scum sticking to a scumbuddy defense. This flip is going to make or break my opinion on you, Ellie.

[Fate]

I'm re-voting bouncy first thing in the morning. All players that have not posted after bouncy got to L-1 just make a post noting that you are here and caught up. That is all.

[Fate]

It doesn't make sense to play this way if he has a scumteam talking to him, telling him what to do. You know?

Yeah sure if he was on AIM with his scumteam through this whole event, asking them what to post in each situation, I'd buy it.

Scum usually act independently of each other, don't overestimate the power of scum boards. I'm playing a game as scum offsite with a scumboard (not nightless) and a lot of our players did sketchy moves without asking first.

The fact that I was asking you to lynch based scum tells, and not numbers, but then calling you out for doing the former is not a contradiction. Are you suggesting you altered your play based off my advice?

The stubborn Hoopla? HA!

Devotress defends bouncy too, interesting. I really think scum would have abadoned bouncy at this point, and I'll admit VI is the only real counter-claim against my tunneling, but I don't care. VI's and anti-town vigs should be lynched all the same.

What if he scans someone else poorly and outs them? We can't let him live regardless of alignment.

[Fate]

Also the Socrates coaching thing was a joke, or maybe Socrates was WIFOM coaching!

[Fate]

At the moment, I'd prefer Socrates or RayFrost over this lynch.

Um. You realize RayFrost has been confirmed Tracker, right? Is there any reason for scum to have this role?

[Fate]

I'm Hammering soon, get your freakin actions in

Players that haven't checked in, iirc: CKD, Wolf, SC. Please post acknowledging you have read that bouncy is going to die.

Oh and Wolf answer the questions @ you, lest you face town wrath.

[Fate]

nightless game, kinda, more like insta-over night game.

EBWOP: We're just waiting on Wolf, this was his last post on 2/15, Monday.

Since he might be scum anyway I might just hammer... CKD and SC did check in recently.

[Fate]

Bouncy if you are town you are the most fail power role ever.

All the posts going back and forth are just filler pages of your horrible, horrible logic.

Your suspicions haven't changed from D1, even though F1f1's "distancing" partner flipped town, and all the other things that took place today.

Hoopla: Think I'm town now? Interesting...

[Fate]

I wanted my name on that lynch Jack! Damn you!

People started jumping off of it after his claim (we'll look at you after the flip), but I called them back on to it!

Vote: Bouncy!

[Fate]

1. Bouncy you...
2. I guess we don't have a doctor, or they didn't protect RayFrost... -_-
3. Bad vig is Bad.

Vote Socrates

Then almost certainly Fate.

Thought you were going to vote me for sure when bouncy flipped town, but ok.

Vote: Socrates

[Fate]

If the #1 drafted is scum,

he probably wouldn't go for vig

, cause as i said, it usually

does more damage to town

than to scum.

DID YOU INHERIT BOUNCY'S FAIL!?

[Fate]

First post in awhile, and nothing but role speculation.

FOS: POM

Scum List: Pom, TM, Wolf, maybe Socrates

[Fate]

Jack's plan is unlikely. I doubt anyone would go for vig, unless they were really, really low, and then it doesn't really eliminate the suspect list.

Let's just have Socrates claim for the sake of brevity..

[Fate]

I was thinking that if someone like coug or fifi had gone for it it would really narrow it down, make things easy.

If either of them claimed it, that means it would either be you (but hey you proposed this idea, so why not just claim vig?) me, or Socrates.

Yeah.... we're basically full circle.

[Fate]

Scum could have an empowerer.

This is your comment on the day??

fos:devotress

Still trying to decide what I think of the going after top power slots now re the scum vig, which is what this day is about.

Only scum think.

FOS: Devotress

[Fate]

That post does nothing for you TM, just to say.

"Yeah I was going to say yesterday lynch bouncy.
Today we should vote Socrates, yeah.
This is why #1 picked vig just like everyone else said.
I have nothing else to contribute."

[Fate]

First post in awhile, and nothing but role speculation.

FOS: POM

Scum List: Pom, TM, Wolf, maybe Socrates

Hmm why are you voting a maybe on your scum list over the others? Is it because of the posibillity he's a scum vig?

I tend to think Socrates is town, however I think him claiming at this moment would be beneficial. The Vig is probably scum. I don't see why any vig in their right mind would kill RedCoyote.

Vote Pom

has she provided content yet????

Answered your own question. Voting Socrates because we need him to claim to move forward, will definitely move on to the Pom wagon when we've sorted him out.

[Fate]

Oh, ****.

[Fate]

Once again, everyone needs to get all their actions in.
NO quickhammer Ellie...

[Fate]

Right, assuming this cop claim isn't some sort of scum gambit, I'm confirmed innocent, and probably going to die tonight if scum have either the doctor or the empowerer (if town have these roles, I should be safe).

LOL-DOC-PROTECT-HOOPLA-NOT-SOCRATES, WUT?

[Fate]

Time to go re-read D1 and see who called Pom as scum heh.

[Fate]

Pomegranate D1

Pomegranate:


HOS: Fate and Jack in post #1, votes Hoopla

Socrates is the first to vote Pomegranate.
Cobalt votes Pom

"@Cobalt : Could you please post more. What the hell was that post voting on Pom?! "-FIFI

Farside votes Pom

"Seriously, we should be lynching Pom right now"-Socrates

Ellie asks for the case on Pom, then votes her

"The case on Pom seems of"-DEVOTRESS

"Need more..." CKD on Pom's case

I vote Pom, for threatening to hammer and not doing much else.

"Hmmm Devotrescum with Pom?- ELLIE

"____" Fifi about the Pom case, again

[Fate]

Pom, Wolf, Devo, Tony, {fifi?}

This looks about right, with you being more certain on Fifi, and maybe throwing in (CKD?)

[Fate]

Before I did my read I speculated Socrates bussing Pomegranate in order to remain scum Vig.

This is why:

He calls for Pom lynch D1, but investigates Hoopla? (He had suspicion on Hoopla, but still)

Scum gambit theory:
1. Socrates sets up suspicions on people he "would" investigate
2. Depending on the day he is forced to claim, claims investigating Pom the night before (explains not claiming with a guilty)
3. Lack of counterclaim because scum got cop lower down

I'm willing to go with Occam's Razor here, but I think a VT->Cop claiming would be appropriate right now.

[Fate]

Bouncy if you're still reading, NOW do you see why you should've role coped Socrates or myself?

-_-'

[Fate]

This is a weak FoS reason.

FoS: Fate.

This is a weaker FoS reason.

FoS: SC.

[Fate]

Fate is glad to have pleased scum.

[Fate]

You were doing so well, Hoopla, but then you came up with what you yourself admit is a conspiracy theory.

There are other roles besides bomb that benefit from not claiming, it is shame you can't think of them.'

The vig is scum, and is either Jack, SC, Wolf, or f1f1. I also highly doubt this elaborate plan of Claim cop -> mislynch -> Governor on Socrates -> Lylo theory. That would require some excellent coordination and planning.

[Fate]

I wasn't trying to discredit your entire post, sorry.

Things I agree with:
-We need to find vig ASAP tommorow
-Numbers theory is looking better with reduced number of groups
-100% agree with your town list

Disagree:
-Scum picked up Cop, Governor, AND vig. What the hell did town get, tracker/watcher/neigborizer/doctor/etc.? I'd be surprised if no town went for at least one "scum" role to see if it was in play/block it
-Socrates/Fate team theory: I don't think scum would be afraid to shoot the top of the draft order. Worst thing that could happen is the person who sent in the kill (vanilla scum, assuredly) dies and then they don't have to worry about bomb later on.

My theory:
-We don't have a doctor and scum doesn't have an empowerer. They wouldn't want a blocked NK (I would assume doc would protect me or Socrates as prob cops N1), and they took a chance on RayFrost and he was killed N2.
-Socrates actually is cop, regardless of alignment, either bussing/nailing Pom, and dies tonight
-Socrates Vig theory getting off one more doublekill and mislynch is probable as well, but his behavior hasn't been that scummy.

What this means:
-Lynch Pom
-Pending night actions
-D4

[Fate]

The "Socrates actually is cop" line should read as him dying tonight as town and being lynched tomorrow.

Reading it a 2nd time, the scariness of your theory begins to set it, as offchance as it may be. Let's say it is true: Where do we go from here? Lynch Socrates, not Pom?

[Fate]

Actually, I forgot about role blocker. They might let Socrates live to throw off the town tomorrow.

Also the "all that has to happen is for the cop claim to fly" means that they have to be sure Cop won't counterclaim. Which means either Socrates is cop, or scum got cop later on.

Still think the former is more likely, based on Socrates posts.

Hopefully you're still around so we can have more neighbor like chats. This may seem like a weird question because you're basically confirmed town now: but why didn't you speculate me as the scum vig?

[Fate]

Fate - 10 - Hoopla, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Devotress, The1fifi, Socrates, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-2)

My wagon, for the record. It was town started all the way up to bouncy, with three scummy people sandwiched there (Porkens, Devotress, fifi), then Socrates, then town to L-1.

Why are we waiting for Pom again? Letting scum talk before they die just messes things up. She could lie about the role she went for, trying to mess with town's head (i.e. I went for ____ and failed so town has that role) to create WIFOM.

I'm all for hammering in the morning after I go to bed.

[Fate]

Last thought: If Socrates is town, and I'm town, Jack is 80-90% scum. Explains why he went so far to discredit the number theory (through math of his own), and tried to shed doubt on Hoopla as "scum trying to mislead town with her numbers."

I also think he's the scum vig based off the draft, so he's definitely a higher priority than Wolf tommorow.

[Fate]

Jack hasn't posted for awhile, hammer on the off chance he didn't action?

:evilgrin:?

[Fate]

Meh, I'll sleep on it. Days only been up 24 hours or so I think, might as well let people check in tomorrow and action if they haven't.

[Fate]

Its 5:30 EST right now. Still not waiting for Pom, but other people to catch up. But hey, if Pom wants to make some connections now that's cool too.

[Fate]

Well I had a good night's sleep. Looks like some more people showed up.

Jack, while correct, scum would also want to kill people up top before their roles did a lot of damage. And that would leave a few singular numbers sticking out like sore thumbs.

Why is wolf next? The vig is next, and we're going to raise hell and flip over tables and *** until we find him.

[Fate]

Nothing better than a hammer over a nice cup of joe and a banana...

Unvote:Socrates

Vote: Pomegranate

[Fate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 7

Hoopla

- 1 - Socrates - (L-6)

Socrates

- 3 - Ellibereth, DocPotter, Jack - (L-4)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Devotress, Faraday, Fate, Hoopla, StrangerCoug, The1fifi, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

Ah HELL!

Vote: Socrates

[Fate]

Oh we're waiting. Yeah he's scum so he's sending in the kill, quicklynch only hurts town PRs

Unvote

[Fate]

Then again a quick lynch might stop a governor.. if Hoopla's prediction comes true we're all dead. ALL DEAD I TELL YOU.

AND WHY DID NO ONE COUNTERCLAIM!?

[Fate]

Ok, I am going to be completely straight with you guys.

I'm not actually the cop. I am the bomb.

I looked at the wagon's building on me yesterday, and combined with my certainty that Pomegranate was scum, I decided I would try for a gambit.

I would fakeclaim cop with a guilty on Pomegranate.

The plan was to catch a scum pomegranate and get the mafia to NK me that night, killing two scumbags at once.

But alas, it was not to be.

So ya, don't lynch me.

Faraday is scum that knows I'm another mislynch and is scared to commit, btw.

I'm scum blah blah blah my gambit failed here's another gambit blah don't kill me.

[Fate]

While the theory Socrates just posted makes some sense, I would have faked a different PR, probably doctor. Maybe empowerer if I figured there was a Mafia RB running around.

So yeah. I don't know how to take it, but there were better ways of gambiting than that.

Read the post Faraday quoted. If Socrates had replaced that post with a, "ok seriously this is what I did" I would've bought it.

Or if had chosen someone scummier than inactive Pom... Now I regret not letting her speak =X

[Fate]

Great. I go from semi-confirmed innocent, to blatant scum wifom target. Thanks!

Before we speedlynch Socrates, lets stop and think about the situation. Socrates is very likely not the scum vig, as he as essentially spontaneously combusted, which isn't something scum would do to their vig. We know scum (almost certainly) have vig and the cop, and I seriously doubt scum would have got either of those roles without picking one of them first. So, the most logical answer is Socrates is the scum cop, and they managed to pick up vig lower down the order.

Although, that seems like bizarre scum-play. Why would you not take vig when you have number 1 choice? One explaination is that Fate is vig, meaning scum got top two spots. But I already think that situation is unlikely based on Fate's wagon. So, if Fate is scum, he should be the vig (but that probably isn't true) - which makes him strongly town.

Jack, StrangerCoug, Fifi and wolf are the logical choices to for the scum vig, and I'm wondering if it's worthwhile having a massclaim now to try and flush the vig out. We might get lucky with role information contradictions and figure the vig out, because I'm not so sure lynching Socrates now is a good idea. It just seems so planned that I'm becoming more and more worried about a scum governor stopping a potential scum vig lynch.

Hmmmm... there's no real way to counter this unless the governor isn't on often, and we can quicklynch someone else instead and the power is wasted (Or is it only used up if it actually stops the lynch?)

I think Socrates is indeed vig. He just needed an extra night, that's why he claimed cop to give him one. Now this means the real cop wasn't here in time to counter, or the scum have cop too...

[Fate]

I'm anti-mass claim.

Let's say Jack, SC, of fifi is scum vig.

They have all sorts of outs: "I claim vanila going for tracker. I claim vanilla going for bomb (makes me believe Socrates) I claim vanilla going for watcher."

And so on. Massclaim only helps scum pick their targets at this point, imo.

[Fate]

The only way Socrates is vig is if you're the scum governor or scum cop, Fate. There's no way scum would have picked up cop

and

governor at 7th or lower in the draft. Why would scum waste a mid-range draft pick trying for cop, when there are plenty of other great scum-roles out there (see; rolecop, roleblocker, empowerer etc.)

The only way this gambit works is if scum have all three roles (cop, vig, governor). They're probably not going to get these roles without a 1/2 draft combination. Socrates is probably the cop.

There is no way scum would have done this fake-guilty ploy if they didn't have the cop.

Regardless, Socrates is scum, and massclaiming now won't help us find the Vig. Lynch Socrates, pressure the likely vigs tommorow.

[Fate]

DocPotter we all agreed if we mislynch today, we're done.

Socrates is scum. Is he vengeful? Maybe. Does scum have a governor? Maybe. Is he a Vig? More likely, but not guaranteed.

If scum have Vig, Cop, Governor like Hoopla foretold, there's not much more we can do. Governor will stop

any

correct scum lynch, and any mislynch we're dead.

I don't know if lynch Socrates is the best town move right now. It feels like we're just playing into scum's hands. They would have known what was going to happen if Socrates did this - I can tell you now, it wasn't just a, 'hey, i'm cop lol! lets lynch pom' thing. There must be a reason why they are doing this.

Like I said, if we are playing into scum's hands it is already too late. SC and DP just seem like scum trying to work your theory against us, which makes me hopeful Socrates is the vig.

I'll vote Socrates when I get back from work tonight.

[Fate]

unvote

Claim:

Vanila town.

But that's not important.

Anyone who has played with me recently, or if the search worked, would know that I get lynched a lot early on. I'm improving btw but.

Because of that I tried for Vengeful Townie.

Someone above me has it.

Hmm the more I read this the more I don't like it. Seems like another gambit to mislead town. Based on my D1 play, isn't it more likely that I'm vengeful scum?

I also don't like your explanation. No one asked you why you picked Vengeful, yet you provided at as if to stave off any suspicion.

[Fate]

We're lynching him, rest assured. Just, once again, want to extend the day for power roles to get their actions in.

[Fate]

meh, I was going to wait until I got back from work... Maybe we can get Spyrex in here before I leave.

Vote: Socrates

[Fate]

Heading to work, then. If Socrates doesn't flip Vig...

. I don't think Socrates would take the risk that I would grab vig and let someone lower take it, so I'm pretty confident he is.

If he's not:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 38&start=0

Draft List

Socrates (12,1)
Fate (13,4)

Jack (7,2)

FeFiFoFum (7,11)

StrangerCoug (3,1)

The1fifi (3,7)

wolframnhart (3,7)

Devotress (8,3)
Porkens (8,9)

DocPotter (8,10)

Ellibereth (1,2)
Dramonic (1,1)
Hoopla (1,1)
TonyMontana (1,1)
Farside (6,3)
curiouskarmadog (6,12)
Pomegranate (6,4)
Faraday (6,4)

They all need to claim.

[Fate]

1.

Because Fate, why I chose it is logical for the way my games had been going.
I mention it because it fits with the way that Socrates has been playing this day.

2.

Whereas, you have 9 votes day 1, 7 of which were on town, drove a mis-lynch day 2 unvoting to then hammer, Hammered day 3, and threw your vote at Soc for 1 post. Hammered twice after delaying. Waiting for ton PR's to send PM's or scum buddies?

3.

Buddy up to Hoopla who says that lynchign Soc might not be towns best move, call me scum for saying that lynching Soc might not be towns best move. I really love the contradiction in your post.

4.

One thing about those little scenarios. Lynching scum two nights running is still good for town. So thanks for reacting Fate, confirming yourself as scum to my mind.

These arguments are terrible. I can see why you would be lynched often.

1. What is also logical based on the way he's been posting? Vig that did a gambit to stay alive an extra day, and now is posting another gambit in hopes to confuse town (with the help of his scumbuddies DP and SC following it). ALSO it is only logical to vote me AFTER Socrates flips "vengeful lynchee." If he is that role, AND scum have Cop, Vig, Governor, etc. I would basically be guaranteed scum even in my own mind, and I'd have to check my role PM again.

But you have to lynch Socrates first for that theory to work, which you just now figured out. (Nice hammer on top of a hammer, btw).

2. Threw a vote on Socrates after one post? How about I voted scum after one post of him rambling "mwhahaha got ya" AFTER he claimed a guilty on someone who was town? Yeah that's why I voted him, for a single post.

3. Buddy up, wha? Hoopla doesn't think lynching Socrates is the best move. I say that it definitely is. Are you even reading?

4. Again, I'm really not confirmed scum in anyone's mind unless Socrates flips something besides both Cop/Vig, then I would agree with a wagon on me. This won't happen. It is just too unlikely they got all that power.

[Fate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 7

Hoopla

- 1 - Socrates - (L-6)

Socrates

- 5 - Ellibereth, Jack, The1fifi, Fate, DocPotter - (L-2)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Devotress, Faraday, Hoopla, StrangerCoug, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

Earlier I said you had one of the better reasons for voting me. Now I'm analyzing my wagon after a good portion of it was revealed town.

You are now one of the scummier people on that wagon.

Also, I could've sworn that was a hammer. I'm already policy lynching anyone who buys his "town gambit" for one second... Fakeclaim cop and claim a guilty on someone you hope is guilty? AND claim an innocent on someone you have no idea about? All for the purpose of drawing 1 NK?

K Socrates,

is what I would say except I did most of the work for you.

QFT. If you came up with this gambit all by yourself you should be proud. Especially if you're governed and this game is already over. Come on just tell us...

[Fate]

True, I hadn't considered the govenor killing off a lynch on the vig to give the extra day of NK's

Still doesn't change that we need socrates votes.

WOW ISNT THIS A COMPLETE 180 HUH SCUM?

[Fate]

I should mention that the bomb is somebody above me, Hoopla, so one of Socrates, Fate, and Jack has to be it. (In my opinion, it is least likely Jack.)

Directed at Hoopla, hmm? I smell scum trying to buy Socrates more time (bomb is above me, since Socrates claimed it, it has to be him!) What makes you sure Jack is the least likely?

Also, @whoever, Socrates didn't fakeclaim Doctor because the scum don't have the doctor this game, so he would've been scared of a counter-claim.

And i should mention the vig is someone above me.

Will look at this again if Socrates flips non-vig.

[Fate]

But why would scum do this cop fakeclaim play if it didn't improve their chances of winning? If Socrates really was the vig, I'd expect more people picking up my arguments (or creating some of their own) about why Socrates isn't a good play and probably isn't the vig. The town consensus seems to be that Socrates is scum, but have no idea if he's the vig or not.

I'm saying we need to deal with this later and find the scum vig now, otherwise it will just be two more town kills. I don't think your argument for Socrates possibly being the vig is too solid. As you said yourself, it just seems like hope more than anything, which is not enough. Logically, it doesn't make sense for Socrates to be scum and put himself in this situation.

If Socrates is the vig, it means scum also have the cop, because Socrates must have known cop was a safe claim. If this was the case, why not claim cop with innocents (maybe even innocents on corpses), or even a guilty on a scumbuddy? He would have known claiming a fake-guilty is only a short-term survival strategy, which isn't anywhere near optimum scumvig play.

Here's the breakdown again.

I agree:
-Socrates is acting oddly. There were much better fakeclaims to stay alive longer as the vig (claiming innocents on dead people, etc.)
-It is getting more and more likely that scum have governor
-Socrates has all but given up at this point, definitely not optimum scumplay.

My points:
-So what? What if we do magically out the real vig? The governor will just stop

his

lynch.
-Realistically, we won't find the real vig. Therefore we have a high chance of mislynching and losing automatically
-I think scum are playing into heavily WIFOM right now: "You can't lynch me! I have a presidential pardon *wink wink*" We can't be afraid of roles we have no proof of being in the game (unless someone wants to claim vanilla going for Governor, but even then I'd take it with some salt as scum trying to diffuse a Socrates lynch).
-Let's lynch Socrates and see what happens, that's all we can do at this point.

[Fate]

Why the hell would I draft doctor? Its a nearly useless role, especially if the scum end up with the empowerer. Drafting doctor with the first pick would have been a utter waste of the pick, and it would be an obvious fake-claim.

Look, I know how it feels to claim scum and go crazy with power. I did it when I got flavor-scanned guilty in a theme game.

But you already crossed the line from, "last minute gambit to save your hide" to "mwhahah I got you good town!" in your first post. None of what you say has any bearing right now, unless you want to self-hammer or something. Especially if you really have the governor.

[Fate]

I agree:
-It is getting more and more likely that scum have governor

My points:
-So what? What if we do magically out the real vig? The governor will just stop

his

lynch.
-Realistically, we won't find the real vig. Therefore we have a high chance of mislynching and losing automatically

1) Lets wait until everyone checks in again before make such assessments. I'll bold this request -

if you're the town governor, you must claim now.

2) Well, if we don't find the vig today we will likely lose. If we don't find it tomorrow we almost definitely lose. If nobody claims governor, then we know for sure this is the case.
3) If you think this is a no-hope chance for the town, why not listen to me and follow my orders, and let me try and give the town a chance at winning this game. I think I'm one of the one's taking it most seriously, and could do some damage if I have people to back me up. I will likely die tonight, and I hope the town just doesn't give up, so I'm staking everything on finding the vig.

And at the moment, I think it's one of the three players in the only untouched group - StrangerCoug, Fifi, wolf.

I'm listening. I think Jack said this before: if scum have the governor they aren't going to claim it. If town has it, they are best left until a lylo situation, and them claiming only satisfied our fears of not lynching Socrates, which we should do without fear anyway.

SC and Fifi just denied Vig, as expected. If Jack is the vig, he'll deny it. If Wolf is the vig, Fifi lied to throw off suspicion AND Wolf will deny it.

Seriously, in a game where you can claim VT reasonably after this many flips, how do you propose we find the vig?

1. Lynch SC, fifi is telling the truth and it is either Jack or SC (or Socrates)
2. Lynch Jack, see above
3. Lynch Me, see above
4. Lynch Wolf for no reason other than he could be lying
^All these situations a mislynch will lead to instant loss

[Fate]

I've already answered your questions Hoopla.

The only reason I would even consider your plan is this:

If we had taken the long shot, and lynched Socrates over Pom yesterday (or let her claim or something) we would've been in a better position today. But the longshot isn't 50% this time, it is more like 25% (Jack, SC, Wolf, Fifi) at least from my POV (assuming Socrates is scum cop) for hitting the vig.

25% Hitting Vig vs.

Fate and The1fifi, depending on if the latter's claim is correct.

I'm having a hard time figuring out why it would hurt in the long run unless Socrates is town, something I'm still unsettled on.

Fate and The1fifi, depending on if the latter's claim is correct.

STILL UNSETTLED ON SOCRATES?

Also, I'd like to point out to the rest of town the

clear

inconsistencies in SC's thought process:

1. Claims VT for bomb. If he's telling the truth the bomb is among Socrates, myself, and Jack. He thinks it is

not

Jack.
2. Implies that both he and fifi are telling the truth about their claims
3. His suspects for the vig? Fifi, who he believed before, and myself, who, according to him, is more likely bomb. Why not Jack? If Jack is neither bomb, nor Vig, then what?

Also, "depending on if the latter's claim is correct." What does that even mean? We have no way of "verifying" his claim without losing. Lynch Fifi=VT="oh the vigs above-AUTO-LOSE.

Maybe he's deflecting from Jack. Post wise I've gotten town reads from Jack, but otherwise I can't think of what role he'd be.

Still, we need to lynch Socrates first.

[Fate]

You're unsettled on a lot of things it seems, SC.

[Fate]

2. Implies that both he and fifi are telling the truth about their claims

As I told Hoopla, point to where I'm doing this, please.

3. His suspects for the vig? Fifi, who he believed before, and myself, who, according to him, is more likely bomb.

As for my believing The1Fifi is vig, see my response for #2. As for my believing you being vig, I remember saying how you and Socrates is more likely bomb than Jack. I don't recall picking one of you over the other.

Why not Jack? If Jack is neither bomb, nor Vig, then what?

I haven't settled on Jack yet.

Meh, if it helps convince other Town, sure.

#2: That was the way it came off to me. The first reaction I had was "he believes Fifi's claim" Post #1073. You say Wolf can't be Vig if you're both telling the truth. If you're telling the truth, that has no bearing at all on Wolf being vig. If fifi's telling the truth, sure Wolf can be vig.

So if you suspect fifi for being the vig, (which=scum, from now on for the rest of the game), why don't you include thoughts on Wolf? And fifi trying to deflect from him?

#3 I recall you picking one over the other. You were hedging on believing Socrates, he claimed bomb after all right? You were one of the first to believe his "town gambit theory." I see no townie believing Socrates is town at this point in time. But if you do, then surely he must be bomb right?

You go: "Hmm Socrates explanation is gambit."
Sensible townie goes:"WHAT THE **** SOCRATES! YOU COST US A DEAD TOWNIE!"

[Fate]

EBWOP:

You go: "Hmm Socrates explanation is plausible" ***

[Fate]

Yeah, this is all good material, and I'm a little worried that the scummiest player besides Socrates is voting Soc, makes me have pause and think about Hoopla's "playing into scum's hands" theory.

But the bottom line, from my POV is this:
I'm not scum with Socrates.
Scum would not have wanted the chance I'd take Vig, (if I were smarted I should've gone for it to either have it or to prove Socrates had it. Alas, I got greedy and wanted a "sure Power role" instead of vanilla so I stayed away from Cop/Vig).
We lynch Socrates.

[Fate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 7

Fate

- 1 - Socrates - (L-6)

Socrates

- 5 - Jack, The1fifi, Fate, DocPotter, StrangerCoug - (L-2)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Devotress, Ellibereth, Faraday, Hoopla, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

....
Quicklynch was the only way to win, now we're screwed.
Scum have the governer, I tried for it and came up blank. Someone above me on the list has it. Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay....

\

GG...

We tried the quick lynch I honestly thought he was at L-2 before fifi voted him and then me.

But yeah if we can get enough people in here to quicklynch another player before someone has a chance to pardon I'm down.

Who knows, maybe Wolf is town governor...

[Fate]

Please can we have some votals, mod?

I have no idea where Socrates is at. DP and SC both voted him as my top suspects though, so I don't know about "extending the day" theory either.

[Fate]

L-1 Candidates: Hoopla, Faraday, Devotress, TonyMontana (don't forget about this guy), CKD....

[Fate]

Erm, I meant those are candidates to

put

Socrates at L-1 so you can hammer him.

[Fate]

Not the kills, the hope was that the governor wouldn't be around.

I don't see Hoopla being scum with Socrates unless scum DON'T have Governor. But I'll trust your word on CKD (since your read of me is correct).

[Fate]

Well, shit. Well now that scum know my role (if SC is town), and town basically know my role (unless SC is scum) It is over.

I am the bomb. Breadcrumb? Signup thread where I said I would pick it. I grilled SC yesterday to make scum think I wasn't the bomb and maybe draw a NK. I don't think SC would take the gambit to fakeclaim "bomb is above me" if he didn't know my role (or possible Jack's).

Also, neigbhorizer, I'm not going to claim who you linked with me, and I don't think you should claim either right now, but please link me with more people. I'm basically unkillable now, unless scum really want to trade 1-1.

The scummiest person right now I think is fifi. BUT Jack is more likely to be vig, since (let me check the draft order) there are two town between him and fifi.

Also if Jack is telling the truth, we'll get a "Town vig shot" if we lynch him. Jack, how do you feel about taking the lynch and vigging fifi?

ANOTHER BUT:

We need a serious prod on Wolf

. He needs to claim before we do anything else today, imo.

[Fate]

ALSO,

Jack if you had a town read on me, you realize we could have both not claimed, and scared the scum each night with a 50% chance of hitting the bomb?

But I understand that you had to claim not bomb, especially since you thought SC was setting up a fakeclaim for me. Oh well..

[Fate]

Apologize for major lack of inactivity on my part, no excuse for it.

@fate
I need to claim?

Yeah that's what we're doing today. Trying to find the vig and hoping Ellie hasn't gone mad with power.

[Fate]

Also if Jack is telling the truth, we'll get a "Town vig shot" if we lynch him. Jack, how do you feel about taking the lynch and vigging fifi?

The truth about what? His role and alignment? That is such a bad idea - I'll explain why;

If Jack is town vengeful:

1) Lynch Jack - 5:4
2a) Vengekill any scum except vig - 5:3 ---> double-kill ---> lose
2b) Vengekill town 4:4 ----> lose
2c) Vengekill vig 5:3 ----> single-NK ----> 4:3

One possible out that doesn't = instant lose

Then, if Jack is scum vengeful:

1) Lynch Jack - 6:3
2) Vengekill town (obviously) ----> 5:3 ----> double-kill ----> lose

~~

This isn't even taking into account the possibility of a scum governor too. If the scum have it, we lose before we even get to consider any of those options.

But lets assume the town still has a chance - why would we take that chance that A) Jack is town and B) he will get lucky and hit the vig. Why don't we just try and lynch the vig now?

The only way a Jack lynch should be considered is if he is counterclaimed, which gives him a chance of being vig.

You were supposed to let Jack answer, but ok, don't let me pressure anyone.

[Fate]

Jack if you had a town read on me, you realize we could have both not claimed, and scared the scum each night with a 50% chance of hitting the bomb?

This sounds like you think I'm town, but you just implied that I was the scumvig.

The scum would have just ignored us.

Like I said I'm really torn on you Jack. My reads so far this game have been trash (DP, bouncy, Dramonic, etc.) Statistically, you have a higher chance of being the vig than, say fifi. Play wise, I think fifi looks worse/wolf could be vig.

Vengeful is also a very convenient claim, that, as Hoopla pointed out, makes it harder to lynch you.

[Fate]

Ah, I see. Well then I am the Neighborizer.

First night I neighborized Fate and Faraday together, only because I had a town read on both of them and I wanted to see how my power worked really. They didn't say much about if they talked so the next day after Ray asked the neighborizer (me) to do it with him i did, unfortunately he died. The next time I neighborized with Soc for if he was the cop I thought it would be good to pass along any info he had or at least if he survived who he would possibly be looking at in case he died. I didn't get a chance to talk to him though before i saw the whole Soc is not the cop, and before I could proceed to question him he was dead, which was my fault for being inactive.

Farsides explanation of how the Neighborizer should us his power makes me hang my head with shame on how i have used it =/

Faraday and I were both when we saw neither of us was it. I personally thought he was scumgambiting to try and mess with me. I'm guessing that you didn't get an action in yesterday though.

[Fate]

This is good, (unless Faraday and Wolf are scum together and we're screwed) that Wolf is a confirmable role.

Now it's either Fifi, Jack, or SC. SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack. In the latter case, Jack should've waited for me to claim first to see if I was bomb or not, so that he could claim bomb.

That makes it 50% right now on Fifi and Jack. Like the numbers better now, Hoopla? Either 50% that Jack is vig, or he's town and vigs Fifi, and then we go to lylo again (what an intense game!)

[Fate]

Wolf, why did you take that role so high up the draft list? It seems like a mostly worthless role.

To be honest I was thinking about taking that role. If survived long enough it can create a web of masons as well as a confirmed neigbhorizer. Also seems, from Wolf's perspective I'm guessing, like an odd enough role that he could be sure he wouldn't turn up vanilla.

[Fate]

You're right it doesn't. Take into consideration that it is true for a moment, is it not the best play?

Ok back to realistic land: I could be the scum vig with SC setting up my fakeclaim. While this is plausible, plausible is the land of "scum push through their fakeclaims."

Remember Socrates claiming his actions yesterday as bomb and made them all seem plausible? But we knew he was lying based on the rest of the game. This is why I (secretly, still wanted scum to think I was not-bomb) believed SC when he sort of believed Socrates.

If I were scum with both Socrates and SC, wouldn't the better play have been to claim bomb right away and bus Socrates? Especially since I knew it was my eventual fakeclaim? But I was anti-massclaim yesterday, because I wanted one more day to try and draw the kill.

Based on the rest of the game, do you think my play lines up with Vig?

Wolf claimed, Hoopla. Who else do you think is vig, what is going to prove it? Do you want to just add me to the pool and take a 33% chance?

Only thing left I can think of is Faraday claiming Vanilla-> Vengeful townie or something. Wait, isn't that what

you

claimed?

[Fate]

Nevermind, you went for Universal.

Why are you answering for wolf, i'm trying to pressure him!!!!11

I c what u did thar. This case is different though, because wolf is confirmed neighborizer in my eyes. Unless he's Vig and someone else lower down is neighborizer, and fifi is scum, and *mind is blown*

Let's just say he's neighborizer for now.

[Fate]

Elli = Govern
Wolf = Neighbor
Hoopla = Vanilla (Backup)
Jack = Venge
Fate = Bomb!!
The1fifi = Vanilla (vig)
StrangerCoug = Vanilla (bomb)
Devotress
Faraday
TonyMontana

Is this right so far?

Yes. These also should be included:

DocPotter-Vanilla (Vengeful)
And any others that said what they went for...

Then again, it could be either fifi or Jack... with them switching claims around to mess with us. Which still makes me feel better about lynching Jack.

Another thing that makes me think better about lynching Jack: They could've been afraid of DP fakeclaiming vanilla, (being actualy vengeful townie), which would have outed Jack today. So they killed him today to line up Jack's fakeclaim.

[Fate]

Shit, Devotress! DEVOTRESS IS ABOVE DP.

Devo could easily be vengeful scum.

This situation is confusing the hell out of me. I'll be back tonight when I have more time and write it down on paper, to try and make sense of the possible teams and roles.

But right now I'll say this: It isn't SC unless he's scum with me.

[Fate]

I'm back.

@Ellie, my gambit with Faraday proved him town.

I pretended to be Porkens in the QT. When Porkens died he said, "ugh Socrates. At least we got one scum." Then he said, after realizing it, "oh you're dead, fuck it."

Scum would not have done this, knowing they killed Porkens. Faraday is 100% town to me.

I'll respond to the rest in a few.

[Fate]

I don't get where Fate is getting the "coug must be town". Is it solely based on "he took a hell of a risk claiming it"? He didn't take a big risk.

Fate is saying that me or fifi is the scumvig, and that he (fate) is town. If that's the case, then coug going for bomb makes sense as scum, it's not a huge risk. If he gets counterclaimed they know where the bomb is and one of the non-vig scum (coug could be non-vig) gets lynched. If fate thinks I'm lying about being vengeful, then coug could be the vengeful and the scum could win with his lynch.

Ok, that's as clear as I can make that paragraph. Essentially, there is no reason for Fate as town to assume that coug is innocent. All of the other assumptions he's making (devotress could be vengeful, etc) make sense with coug being scum. Ergo, he is probably coug's scumbuddy.

He didn't take a big risk? Look, since you're saying you're town and I'm town as well. He claimed bomb was above him: Only town was above him. He'd be outed as a liar. This is so simple I do not understand why people are failing to grasp it:

1. SC didn't know my role, or Jack's
2. SC claims the bomb is above him. The only way this works as scum was to "prove" Socrates was the bomb, but it should have been clear to him that Socrates was going to be lynched.

Actually #2 looks more tempting right now. Especially with the way he is defending himself...

[Fate]

Initial vote for soc (after the rvs vote which was unvoted):

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

Context:
Soc said hoopla was scummy because her plan for pushing the top of the draft order was pro-scum (the town power roles would get lynched). He theorized that if hoop was scum, the mafia had done badly in the draft.

RedCoyote said this was contradictory because it's like he is using hoopla's logic (about scum being in a certain part of the draft). He isn't though, she's going by number analysis and he's saying her scummy pushing of it indicates that the mafia did badly if she herself is scum.

Coug agrees, but

misses the point

. He focuses on the "hoopla and/or fate flips scum" part. The other reason for his vote is that he's remembering getting lynched as scum in the last game--or something, the last part of the post doesn't make much sense to me. It sounds more like he's thinking about not making the slip he made last game.

Announcing a wish not to repeat the same mistake last time is a null tell. Supposed you were lynched as scum for heavy tunneling on a player. Would you want to tunnel heavily again? I don't think so. Would you view people who tunneled heavily on a player as scummy afterward? I can't think of a logical reason why not. Your attack here basically calls me scummy for acting on past experiences.

Defense of irrelevant D1 BS, don't like this at all.

Heh. So I did.

Screw it anyway. I'm hurting myself by leaving myself open on Socrates, and the "backfired gambit" reads more scum than town.

Unvote if necessary
Vote: Socrates

Fakey and awkward.

Is it worse than sitting on the fence, which is what I was doing before this?

It is worse because it backs up the theory that maybe you fakeclaimed vanilla going for bomb to try to hold up Socrates' theory, and then backpedaled realizing "leaving myself open on Socrates will only make me look worse."

SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack.

Your wording implies that you think I'm scum either way. I don't think your statement here is scummy, but I want to probe into your thought processes for a bit: Why would it be more risky for me to claim I went for the bomb if I were scum with Jack than if I were not?

You got it backwards

This does not come off to me as genuine. It is OMGUS and WIFOM mixed together, and I'm having a hard time seeing any sort of case on Fate. (Pop quiz for everyone else: Who do I think is vig?)

Vote: The1fifi

I don't like this post. SC, you fail to mention the fact that EITHER JACK OR MYSELF ARE THE BOMB. You, "fail" to see the case on me? From your POV, the only case you could have on me is:

I'm scumvig with Jackbomb and he claimed something else so I could claim bomb. But you mention none of this in your thought process, even though it should be very important to you.

This almost seems like a scumslip, SC. Did you forget you had claimed bomb?

I really don't know what to read of SC. He could be just a confused townie, but if I were in his shoes I'd latch on to the "look I claimed vanilla going for bomb and Fate was bomb! Why would I do this as scum?" Instead of, "I don't see the case on Fate. Here's a defense of all my scummy posts I made in the past."

[Fate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

StrangerCoug

- 1 - The1fifi - (L-5)

The1fifi

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-5)

Players not voting: Devotress, Ellibereth, Faraday, Fate, Hoopla, Jack, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

I'm back.

@Ellie, my gambit with Faraday proved him town.

I pretended to be Porkens in the QT. When Porkens died he said, "ugh Socrates. At least we got one scum." Then he said, after realizing it, "oh you're dead, fuck it."

Scum would not have done this, knowing they killed Porkens.

Faraday is 100% town to me.

I'll respond to the rest in a few.

that doesn't help, you know.. we need to find the vig..

It will help later on. Are you against confirming townies?

[Fate]

I don't get where Fate is getting the "coug must be town". Is it solely based on "he took a hell of a risk claiming it"? He didn't take a big risk.

Fate is saying that me or fifi is the scumvig, and that he (fate) is town. If that's the case, then coug going for bomb makes sense as scum, it's not a huge risk. If he gets counterclaimed they know where the bomb is and one of the non-vig scum (coug could be non-vig) gets lynched. If fate thinks I'm lying about being vengeful, then coug could be the vengeful and the scum could win with his lynch.

Ok, that's as clear as I can make that paragraph. Essentially, there is no reason for Fate as town to assume that coug is innocent. All of the other assumptions he's making (devotress could be vengeful, etc) make sense with coug being scum. Ergo, he is probably coug's scumbuddy.

If I wasn't clear, I meant it was a hell of a risk to

claim

to have gone for bomb and not actually done so. Are you suggesting that he is scumvanilla that went for bomb?

Devotress being vengeful and SC being scum are two different entities entirely. Devotress is above, DP. She could be vengeful with you being the vig, Jack. Nothing to do with SC at all, Ergo, that didn't make sense.

[Fate]

Fate is saying that me or fifi is the scumvig, and that he (fate) is town. If that's the case, then coug going for bomb makes sense as scum, it's not a huge risk. If he gets counterclaimed they know where the bomb is and one of the non-vig scum (coug could be non-vig) gets lynched.

If fate thinks I'm lying about being vengeful, then coug could be the vengeful and the scum could win with his lynch.

I finally made sense of this post, you're saying either:

1. Coug claimed vanilla going for bomb to try and draw a counterclaim from below him, thus letting scum know where the bomb is and losing Coug as vengeful lynchee, which makes them win.

But this requires you to be lying about vengeful lynchee. And we would know the scumvig wouldn't take a chance at being counter-claimed, so we wouldn't lynch Coug even if he was caught with the bomb below him.

But I still rather use occam's razor. SC got vanilla after trying for bomb, which is why he waffled on Socrates case. He also said he didn't think Jack was likely to be the bomb (which would prevent the SC+Jack team having Jack claim bomb after my claim, if I didn't do so.) Also he is terrible when responding to arguments on his case... I guess.

He isn't really clear, in the way other people are, but I just can't make sense of it my mind the situation where he is the vig and claims going for bomb without knowing if it is above him or not.

Also scratch what I said earlier about scum killing DP to make sure he wasn't vengeful himself. This doesn't make sense in my arguments because that would mean they still wouldn't fakeclaim Vengeful because a townie about DP would have it.

So most likely:
Jack=Scum vig/Town vengeful
Fifi=Scum vig/???
Devotress=Scum vengeful/Scum vig

But right now I bet everyone is getting more and more confused. We need:

1. The rest of the claims
2. A debate on who the scumvig is if Jack isn't it, so that we can direct TownJack's shot

[Fate]

Why I did not mention the bomb is very simple: I am not hunting for the bomb. Yes, I should know—and I do—that it's either you or Jack. I also remember people presenting evidence that the bomb is scum. Why is my failure to mention the bomb suspicious?

Look. If I am the scumvig, and you are the town vanilla, I would in no way in hell claim Scum bomb. I could claim Vanilla going for Cop, and the guess what? YOU'D be the liar since Jack didn't claim bomb either.

Me claiming Bomb should be a significant point for you. I don't remember your evidence that the bomb is scum, but I do remember you thinking Socrates was the town bomb as he claimed.

You're line of thinking continues to baffle me. "I should know-and I do-" Well what conclusions do you draw from this? How does you knowing where the bomb is point you to thinking fifi is the vig? Why did you not think Jack was the bomb earlier and that it was either myself or Socrates?

[Fate]

@Fate : I already said i am not the vig. I don't wanna lose, so don't make that mistake.

You really are terrible no matter what side you're on?

Town: HELP US OUT. Why aren't you the vig? Because you freakin said so? Because you don't want to lose? WHO IS THE VIG THEN? SC? Why the hell did you vote SC? In what situation would he claim vanilla (bomb) in his situation? To set up my fakeclaim as bomb? Then wouldn't I be more likely scum vig?

Your vote on SC is just pure OMGUS

Scum: You look terrible right now. If it wasn't more likely that Jack was vig based on the draft, I'd want to lynch you directly.

[Fate]

@Jack: Read my last post directed at fifi.

Since you are also pressuring SC, I want to know what scenario in your head works out with him claiming vanilla (bomb) as the scum vig.

You only proposed a situation in which he is scum Vengeful trying to draw a lynch by being caught in a lie.... ??? We need to find the Vig today Jack, and you trying to deflect onto a bad townie doesn't look too good.

What do you think of fifi, Jack?

[Fate]

WHY?

[Fate]

If you read back, I admitted my own failings for not going for the Vig role. I'm not judging you, if anything it is an ATE.

Your ATE: I don't want to lose please believe me.
My ATE in response: You are doing badly, please improve the quality of your posts.

Now please, what situation makes sense that SC is the scumvig? I'll give you a hint: I'd have to be scum with him to corroborate the bomb fakeclaim. You can now elaborate as to what you think I am if SC is the scum vig, etc. etc.

[Fate]

SC : His posts today have been diferent and look scummy imo. Jack pointed out some pretty good ones, but i can't figure out who of them two is the vig. you seem the less likely , by your posting throughout the game, but u can be a really good actor.

You and Jack together on SC. Interesting interesting. His posts look scummy. Bouncy's posts looked scummy. FFFF's posts looked scummy.

That doesn't tie into the situation we have here with all the power roles and draft orders in play. SC would be taking a huge risk to claim vanilla (bomb) if he were the scumvig and Jack and I were town. If Jack+SC were scum, Jack could

*lightbulb*

Jack could've gone for Vig, and SC for BOMB, so that (like Hoopla described earlier in relation to me/Soc) the Vig could fire at will! It failed because I had the bomb.

BUT... why did they shoot RC? or Cobalt? They should have been afraid of the bomb above SC. Maybe they read me too well when I didn't claim D1, and figured I was the bomb the whole time.

Either way, this now looks like Jack is bussing SC. Whether Jack is trying to mislynch SC or bus him, all fingers point to Jack. Or fifi. But, like I said earlier, under the possibility that Jack is town we can have him Vengeful fifi.

Mind sacrificing yourself for town, Jack? I'll vote you as soon as the others claim (and don't mess with everything), rest assured.

[Fate]

Not really, Fate. It could be a gambit from him, and in case it failed, scum would have some info on where the bomb was. But at lylo, we can't go for remote ideas... I am trying to figure out what would be the better lynch..

So a gambit to find the bomb is worth sacrificing SC, who you think is their Vig?

[Fate]

^In the above SC+Jack situation, FFFF would be the perfect mislynch in case he was bomb. They vigged everyone below SC and shot everyone above.

It makes sense now. Scum would have wanted bomb if they had vig. They wouldn't go for the bomb first before vig, so they went after.

[Fate]

Not really, Fate. It could be a gambit from him, and in case it failed, scum would have some info on where the bomb was. But at lylo, we can't go for remote ideas... I am trying to figure out what would be the better lynch..

So a gambit to find the bomb is worth sacrificing SC, who you think is their Vig?

Well, it doesn't make sense to gambit with the vig, no..

Then are you going to change your vote?

[Fate]

No. This is totally wrong. There is no IF.They had to choose what to go for. And there is no first or last. The pick results came out all at the same time for everyone, so they couldn'r "oh, we got vig, lets go for bomb too"...

I didn't mean it in that way. I mean their thought process was:

"What should everyone pick?"
Etc. etc.
"Jack go for vig, and SC for bomb. If we get both we're golden."

With the reasoning that getting vig by itself was more important than bomb by itself, so they assigned a player higher on the draft to get it. Why it wasn't Socrates is beyond me, (I guess they predicted all eyes would turn to him when we were looking for the vig. And wala! 2 days wasted on the bastard).

[Fate]

25 posts. I've never played with Porkens and his one-liners didn't help me emulate him... so I just winged it. Faraday said he bought it because of my "thoughts" on TM.

Here's an ongoing game with fifi if you want to observe. He hasn't flipped, but... (well you'll see):

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=13336

[Fate]

Either Fate or Jack are the vig.

I don't think jack shares my vision of going for vig relatively low on the draft, so:

unvote

Vote Fate

Why did you pick Vig again, fifi?

How could you possibly know whether Jack "shares your vision" in relation to choosing roles?
Why is SC left out of this list, but added later when you agree with Jack and vote him?

[Fate]

Hoopla should be here right about now to push her numbers theories. Not doing that worries me...

Anyway:
Socrates (12,1) -Scum
Fate (13,4) -Town
bouncy.bouncy (2,1) -Town
Cobalt (2,10) -Town
RayFrost (4,6) -Town
Redcoyote (4,9) -Town
Jack (7,2) -???
FeFiFoFum (7,11) -Town
StrangerCoug (3,1) -
The1fifi (3,7) -
wolframnhart (3,7) -Town
Devotress (8,3) -????
Porkens (8,9) -Town

If Jack is town and SC is also town, only one scum was in the top 9. Doubtful. Anyway, shamelessly ripped from Hoopla:

Group 2:

Fate

Group 3:

Jack

Group 4:

StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart

Group 5:

Devotress

Group 6:

Ellibereth, Hoopla, TonyMontana

Group 7:

Faraday

SC and fifi could very well be the doubled up scum. This is also the first post I actually realize that almost half the town is scum right now... How the hell are we supposed to get a majority on the scum's own vig?

[Fate]

Not the kills, the hope was that the governor wouldn't be around.

I don't see Hoopla being scum with Socrates unless scum DON'T have Governor. But I'll trust your word on CKD (since your read of me is correct).

Btw fate, scum have no governer. Help me out on Hoopla. I've flipped flopped back and forth, front and back on her all game.
(I know she won't be of much consequence today, since today is lynch-the-vig-day, but I'm a piece of dead meat soon and I want to figure it all out. )

Why did you claim again? You didn't really need a bigger target on you anyway... (should've waited for TM and Devotress then claimed Bulletproof, imo.) At least scum have to choose between you and Faraday now. And if Wolf lives he gets to make another connection to me (That's what you're doing tonight, right Wolf?)

Hoopla isn't pushing numbers as much as she used to. That's her "meta" imo, regardless of alignment (this is the first I've played with her though). I can easily see her using them all the time regardless of alignment.

Things against her:
1. Socrates called innocent on her. WIFOM land
2. Today the only thing I've seen from her is "Here's the math on why we

shouldn't

lynch Jack." Don't like that at all. I think Town Hoopla would've used the fact that Jack is probscum if I'm not based to him being one of the few singulars.

She also WIFOM'd earlier that Jack was town because "scum wouldn't kill RC and leave Jack in a group by himself so early" which is complete BS. Or she believed her number theory so strongly that assumes scum bases their NK around it...

Like you said, she'll be of consequence later. I gotta take it one day at a time here.

[Fate]

My random paranoia is probably getting annoying for anyone doing a read, but I can't help it:

Faraday said something in the QT that triggered it: SC and Fifi claimed around the same time.

Remember my theory of SC being scumvanilla going for bomb, and Jack being the scumvig?

WHAT IF:

FIFI is the vanilla that went for the bomb. This throws my whole "SC wouldn't gambit a bomb claim as the vig" theory out of the water. SC is the real vig, then. Jack is an actual vengeful lynchee.

Now why fifi and SC countervoted eachother, I don't understand. But this explains their both claiming so unprovoked and near eachother.

This situation makes SC even less clear, and it makes me think lynching Jack to have him shoot fifi/SC is worse because it is 50% shot.

Ranked in order of scariness:

Fate's list of fear

1.

Jack is scumvig with SC as vanilla bomb below him. Devotress is vengeful lynchee

2.

SC is scumvig with vanilla bomb fifi below him. Jack is townlynchee

3.

Fifi is scumvig with town vanilla SC above him and... town Jack above him as well?

Writing it out like that makes #3 look pretty stupid. #1 is really scary because we have to deal with a scumvengeful. This means we have to hit the vig today, and scum nonvengeful until we're out of Lylo (not sure if this math is even posssible).

#2 looks pretty plausible. But that would require a town jack, and a pretty good scumteam, and, let's be honest, did fifi and SC come up with this? Hoopla? LurkerTM?

Which boils down to this: Lynch the scummiest person, SC. Obvious distancing from Socrates early on, rest of the case on him, etc.

But fifi was voting. him, but then unvoted when I posted a plausible situation. What do I make of this? -_-

@Ellie's town list: Wow. Looking at it that way scum did a hell of a lot of damage with nothing more than a cop and a vig. Maybe an empowerer somewhere near the bottom. TM is the wildcard that makes or breaks the list though, since we need every single member of town voting the Vig (unless the scum want to buss them and never be suspected again! ;D)

It's only been two days since he posted though. Feels like a lot longer than that.

[Fate]

Fruits of my re-read:

Pages 42-43, SC and fifi have an interesting exchange. fifi FoS's SC for "Seeming to believe" Socrates.

Post #1052: Hoopla
In my opinion, if the governor is town, they need to claim now, so we can assess if they are likely town or not. This gives us a better understanding of how urgently we need to find the vig, and how long we have left. If we can safely assume the governor is town, then it gives us a bit more security.

What does everyone else think? Having the governor hidden only benefits scum, because if the governor is town, they are not going to use the power anyway. So, even by outing the governor we don't lose anything by it claiming.

We all agreed that if scum had the governor at this point, we were dead. Bad post by Hoopla.

#1056: Jack
He disagress with Hoopla thinking the governor should claim.

#1058&1059, SC and fifi claim back to back.

#1060: Socrates
Stranger is obvtown btw.

Not much to work with, but hey he voted me as his scumbuddy in the same post...

#1071: Hoopla

1) Lets wait until everyone checks in again before make such assessments. I'll bold this request - if you're the town governor, you must claim now.
2) Well, if we don't find the vig today we will likely lose. If we don't find it tomorrow we almost definitely lose. If nobody claims governor, then we know for sure this is the case.
3) If you think this is a no-hope chance for the town, why not listen to me and follow my orders, and let me try and give the town a chance at winning this game. I think I'm one of the one's taking it most seriously, and could do some damage if I have people to back me up. I will likely die tonight, and I hope the town just doesn't give up, so I'm staking everything on finding the vig.

And at the moment, I think it's one of the three players in the only untouched group - StrangerCoug, Fifi, wolf.

Consistent with her number analysis. She points the finger at the untouched group thinkin scum are afraid of the number theory.

#1073: SC
"Hoopla wrote:
And at the moment, I think it's one of the three players in the only untouched group - StrangerCoug, Fifi, wolf."
That's impossible if both The1fifi and I are telling the truth. We both implied that we tried for a role and got beaten to it. I tried for bomb and didn't get it, leaving me as VT, and likewise for The1fifi trying to get the vig role; wolframnhart is below The1fifi."

WOW LOOK WHAT WE HAVE HERE. THE SITUATION I AM PUSHING NOW IS IMPOSSIBLE, HUH?

#1077: SC
Actually, in Mini 895, it was discussed a bit that you can tell the truth and still be scum. Here, scum can just keep their claims to "vanilla" and not worry too much about lying there. I'm just reminding you that if one of the three people you say is most likely vig is indeed such, one of The1fifi and I have to be scum.

Show me where I assume The1fifi to be town that went for vig and I'll answer your question.

Poses a situation that is close to what I believe to be true, (i.e. fakeclaiming vanilla). Links himself with fifi unnecessarily again. He should've said "if one of the three of us are the vig like you say, it is definitely fifi." This is a very significant post.

POST #1115&116

:
Either Fate or Jack are the vig.

I don't think jack shares my vision of going for vig relatively low on the draft, so:
unvote

Vote Fate
-----
Or stranger coug, but he already claimed he went for bomb.

So between Jack and Fate, one is the bomb and the other is the vig

He automatically believes SC? After forgetting to mention him in the first place? SCUMSLIP.

Then we get to the part where Ellie claims governor, fifi asks who ellie wants to lynch, and Jack has his huge post on SC, the first one of the day to bring suspicion on him.

I think we have enough. I think it is time to go back to Mafia 101 and say:

If Jack were scum with SC, he wouldn't bus him here. A scum kill gives us one more shot at the vig.
Jack hasn't been all that scummy all game.
SC has been terribly scummy. Flailing when Jack and I pressure him. Scumvig afraid to slip up?

Scew those unclaimed punks, I'm making a move:

Vote: StrangerCoug

Check and Mate.

[Fate]

I get wierd gut feelings about Elibereth

?

4/10 scum right now. If Ellie were scum and had stopped the lynch yesterday (she hammered, so don't come up with any crazy theories) it would be 5/11. Then we would've lynched Socrates again assuming he was the vig and lost...

[Fate]

Everyone is clamming vanilla.. afraid of a counter claim, devo and TM?

You're right fifi, Devotress claiming nilla also?

UNLIKELY

Unvote: SC

Vote: Devotress

Let's go!

[Fate]

MWHAHHAHAHA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqeNC54F ... re=related

Unvote

Vote: SC

[Fate]

I don't even know what you're trying to do, Fate. The way you're vote-hopping so frequently makes me suspect you don't know what you're doing and haven't thought about all the possibilities. Or you're just trying to create noise and distract from something. I don't know what yet.

HoS: Hoopla

DOUBLE TRAP! ITS SUPER EFFECTIVE!

As any member of town would clearly see:

WHY THE HELL WOULD VANILLAVIG FIFI VOTE BELOW HIM!

FAILFAILFAILFAILFA