Mini 918 - A Hot, Steaming Bowl of Mafia - Game Over!

[Hoopla]

*shrug*

Vote: Locke Lamora

[Hoopla]

*shrug*

Unvote, vote: Moai Interceptor Cannons

[Hoopla]

What else do you expect him to do at this stage of the game?

Although I guess he could have asked why.

Then I'd get votes for being too worried about a vote on page 1.

That sounds like you were worried about appearing too worried.

[Hoopla]

Charter always tries too hard as town!

[Hoopla]

Wow. Should we be iso'ing Sotty now to see who her suspects were before she died?

[Hoopla]

I was making a joke, but I thought using the rolling eyes smiley would be too pretentious.

[Hoopla]

Is this a new wagon I see forming? I love it!

Vote: RedCoyote

[Hoopla]

Is it just me or is Hoopla's play in this game really suspicious? I know she doesn't trust D1 lynches to produce scum at all, and I have a feeling that it's too blatant to be genuine scum antics, b-b-but ...

I don't understand what you're talking about.

[Hoopla]

Do you think I'm scum, RedCoyote?

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: Moai Interceptor Cannons

[Hoopla]

Moai, I acknowledge I am blatantly bandwagoning, but I think it's a perfectly viable tactic in a town so dead (actually, even in active towns). Bandwagon analysis is one of the most reliable forms of catching scum - I hate it when people are frigid with their votes.

We're not going to get information from twiddling our thumbs, and posting once every couple of days. I'm also at fault for this one, and I'll be trying harder on this front. We need a nice healthy bandwagon on someone very soon, though.

[Hoopla]

Moai, I acknowledge I am blatantly bandwagoning, but I think it's a perfectly viable tactic in a town so dead (actually, even in active towns). Bandwagon analysis is one of the most reliable forms of catching scum - I hate it when people are frigid with their votes.

But what worries me is that you don't usually play like this. Not so much the blatant bandwagoning, but the lack of content to accompany your blatant bandwagoning. What makes you play like this in this game? Have you played like this before?

I think it mostly depends on my mood. I'm not very good at self-analysis and all that, but maybe Mini 863 and Mafia 105 has similarities for you.

[Hoopla]

Someone pointed out that Hoopla's position on D1 voting is unique, although it isn't unreasonable. It's essentially that everyone's scumhunting on D1 is much less effective than they'd care to admit. I can agree with that, although I know when I get some brilliant idea in my head that it's hard for me to back off from it. Anyways, she doesn't seem to be following that mentality here. She's content with piggybacking on other player's scumhunting, as d3x pointed out, and not really giving input as to why. The Hoopla I've played with is loathe to join someone else's wagon, especially on D1, without giving her own perspective.

I have no idea where you're getting your meta on me, but I'd love to know your sources. I have phases of going through a defeatist mentality about early lynches, and usually prefer to policy lynch Day 1. I don't think we have anyone that fills that category - normally I'll show my support for several candidates and try and ensure we get a couple of decent bandwagons on Day 1 to compare for the next day.

I also realize it is people that take definite stances (players like charter and roflcopter are good examples) that create more information even if they're wrong/deluded about their accusations. It's necessary for people to push themselves into the role of believing someone is scum, even when you have little to go on. If everyone sits around bemoaning the lack of information available, and that the odds are so terrible, you get nowhere.

I like to trial different playstyles (as both alignments) to figure out what works, what doesn't work - because I dislike the current Day 1 meta and how games normally play out. I thought trying to push and follow as many wagons as possible would be a good way to generate information, but if you're indiscriminate about which wagons to join, I guess it really doesn't give much insight.

~~

In other news, the deadline has crept up on us surprisingly quickly. With the amount of V/LA's and whatnot, we'll probably be struggling to get a lynch other than me or Moai. I'm not sure if I actually find Moai genuinely suspicious - the most serious issue is the lurking, but a number of us fit this profile to make it null.

Cathart's vote on Moai feels very weak and opportunistic, which seems unusual for him. I don't remember him as a particularly dangerous or wreckless player, and would imagine he'd normally use a stronger vote as town to put someone in the L-1 position. If we still had/have time, I'd switch my vote to Cathart if others were interested.

RedCoyote seems quite town, and is one the main people keeping this game afloat - I'm not sure of charter's alignment, but his argument with Shotty seems sincere. But this game has been slower than I expected.

[Hoopla]

Screw it. I know it's a long shot to have any chance of getting this lynch, but it's a better choice than Moai.

Unvote, vote: Cathart

Someone join me please!

[Hoopla]

Cathart's vote on Moai feels very weak and opportunistic, which seems unusual for him. I don't remember him as a particularly dangerous or wreckless player, and would imagine he'd normally use a stronger vote as town to put someone in the L-1 position. If we still had/have time, I'd switch my vote to Cathart if others were interested

Why opportunistic? I declared my doubts about MIC since the first time I made RC/MIC connection. We're very close to deadline, and one of my suspects is at L-2. What's so opportunistic in here?

Your attempt to derail the wagon is noted.

Hmm, valid. I still think it's a feeble assertion, however. I'd like to wait and listen to a second opinion on the matter though.

[Hoopla]

It seems weird that was the reason, or rather, an additional reason for the vote, rather than voting earlier. Why not just point to your previous arguments? It looked like it was a linked reason (as if he was waiting for just one more scumtell) to get onto the wagon, which undermines previous suspicions.

[Hoopla]

Also really disliking Nikanor got to lurk out this whole day. Closing comments for the day I suppose since charter hammered (?), don't know why Hoopla jumps on Col, he provided ample reasoning for his vote in his earlier posts imo. Also Hoopla why do you think Maoi isnt suspicious? All I get from you on him is a fence-sitting 'eeeeeh' view.

I don't think he's not suspicious - there's probably not enough information on him to get an accurate read. I just dislike Cathart's vote on him, and think by the way his wagon has formed, he will probably flip town.

Oh well.

Unvote, vote: Moai Interceptor Cannons

[Hoopla]

If Moai is indeed scum, that would make 5 out of the nine games I've played on this site where mafia was lynched on day 1, so I hardly think day 1 scumhunting is pointless.

@Hoopla, you seemed to imply you thought the Moai wagon was scummy. I'd like to know who else besides Col. on the wagon you find scummy. If you can't answer during twilight, I'd still like to know tomorrow.

Too small of a sample size.

I don't know who else I find particularly scummy - to be honest I would have settled for a policy-esque lynch on some of the lurkers. I don't see the RedCoyote/MIC pairing which has been implied.

I have/had vague suspicions of Cathart, but almost all my Day 1 thoughts will have gone out the door with a scum flip. That confirmed information is 10 times better anything you can find on Day 1.

[Hoopla]

If MIC is scum like he says he is, I'm going to make some quick predictions based on that information.

If anyone is bussing, it'll be charter or shotty. Cathart could have easily tilted things in my favour if he was scum, rather than choosing to bus - I don't see him as suspicious at all now. If there is scum on the wagon, it will almost certainly be only one. d3x and dry-fit are probably town.

Off the wagon, RedCoyote feels town, despite being a pusher of my wagon, which was one of the main competitors on D1. I don't understand the RC/MIC connection beyond this small facet - I'll have to keep an eye on it.

Locke's jumping ship to my wagon is sooo shady. This is definitely something to look into tomorrow.

Konowa and Nikanor I have no read on, but are more suspicious than random due to me having stronger town reads on other players.

[Hoopla]

Your

(Hoopla's)

attempt to derail the

(MIC)

wagon is noted.

vote: Hoopla

What scum motivation is there to attempt to derail MIC's wagon when he's at L-1? It was very likely his lynch was going to go through, and even if he wasn't lynched until later, I would

know

it would look quite incriminating. Then, even if I managed to get votes off MIC, their revotes would all have to be on the same person to avoid getting myself lynched (I was the competing bandwagon). Do you really think the town had 9 votes on two different competing scum wagons on D1? I know this is a wifom defense, but I don't care. It's stupid scum play, and I don't think I'm stupid.

[Hoopla]

d3x, please read my post and respond to it point by point, rather than just picking out a wiki-tell you don't understand and mindlessly following it. Please stop and just reread without bias and come to a deeper conclusion. If you can't do that, please explain your definition of wifom and why wifom is bad.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: your 'if MIC is scum' post seemed incredibly contrived to me. Do you not think I justified my vote on you adequately? Does anything about my attitude towards MIC yesterday make you think I'm his scumbuddy?

Need to hear a lot from Zach and more from Konowa in particular.

To be honest it was just a spontaneous mind-dump. Racking my brain as quickly as I could before the day ended, because I didn't have much hope in him flipping scum. Everything I said was true as it was fresh from the top of my brain. Really though, I don't understand why you're claiming it looks fake. Can you explain if it was the feel of the post, or the actual directions of my suspicion?

I think you justified your vote adequately - you did that just fine. But I'm suspicious of you because I really don't think scum double-bussed their roleblocker on D1. I have little to no read on either of the lurkers (Konowa and Zach), and out of RC and you, you look like the most logical choice for scum not bussing. You jumped at just the right time - when MIC wasn't too far ahead, and when I was a feasible choice.

Your attitude specifically toward him isn't conclusive, and I'm not going to try and fabricate any evidence or put forward a long-shot theory, because it'll probably just be me interpreting what you're doing as scum, without being able to say why you're doing it. My suspicion for you is based on guessing where I think scum are, and why you unvoted MIC. And also one other thing I haven't mentioned yet.

Everyone: please state your current opinion on the likelihood of Locke-scum.

[Hoopla]

Hey RC, what are your thoughts about Locke?

[Hoopla]

Ok, if I'm missing something here, please point it out.

My suspicion for you

{Locke}

is based on guessing where I think scum are, and why you unvoted MIC.

As far as I can tell, Locke never voted MIC.

Locke's Voting Record

Iso1-Vote:Hoopla
Iso3-Vote:RedCoyote
Iso8-Vote:Hoopla

Yes, that was foolish.

Locke, why weren't you on the MIC wagon? What was your opinion of Dry-fit?

[Hoopla]

Time to drop the bombshell. I am a tracker, and followed Locke Lamora to Dry-fit last night. He's got some explaining to do about why he was there.

[Hoopla]

STOP!

I have a confession to make before you lynch me.

[Hoopla]

I messed up MASSIVELY! I am the day vigilante, responsible for Sotty's death, and I still have a bullet up my sleeve today that the town should use before you do what you do with me.

I was fakeclaiming tracker on Locke to try and get a read of his reaction, to decide whether to shoot him or RedCoyote today. I had a hypothesis that one or the other is probably scum, due to me being the competing wagon with Moai. I doubted that scum would have not tried to push a different wagon if their roleblocker was in jeopardy.

SORRY SORRY SORRY!

[Hoopla]

I literally am facepalming myself right now. I need to quit mafia.

[Hoopla]

Well... Tracker is the new Cop as far as I've seen lately, so you didn't at least consider possibility of the real one around?

Also - You should better have a damn good explanation for Sotty kill.

My vote stays.

I did, but I didn't if that makes any sense.

My explaination was that the game was going slow and being boring, and that I am a gambler. Imagine if I hit scum - that would have really destroyed them psychologically, losing a member in the first 3 pages. I picked Sotty based on a hunch. I actually wrote a massive PM to the mod explaining my reasoning and philosophy in extreme detail. I'll post it here if he'll let me.

I don't think you should kill me until you use up my kill though. Maybe I should vig myself, so the town doesn't waste the lynch today.

[Hoopla]

Here is my message I sent sigma about my kill choice;

This might seem bizarre to use it so early, but this game seriously needs an injection of life. Of the last 80 3:9 mini normal games, scum have only been lynched 17 times on Day 1, which is well below what random would be.

In other games I've suggested a random lynch Day 1 as a viable way of using that lynch - it would theoretically improve our chances at lynch. The downside is losing a good powerrole, and this is still prevelent here. But the difference is, I'm not factored into the random process, protecting a valuable role and slightly improving the chances of a random lynch, as it's 3 from 11 (presumably).

At the moment, I'm tossing up between Sotty, Locke and d3x - I'm vibing pretty hard from all of them and think there is probably one scum there.

Here we go;

KILL: SOTTY7

[Hoopla]

[Hoopla]

I'm prepared to be dictated, and let the town do what they want with my bullets. If you want to kill me, I understand. I feel very foolish. I don't have a limit d3x (other than 1 shot per day).

As for my vibes, I'm too embarrassed to explain them, because you'll think I'm crazy. They're very wifomy and guess-y. I used to test myself, when I was really into mafia. I'd read the first 2-3 pages in the massive data-bank of newbie games (without looking at roles) and try to guess who the scum were based on gut. I performed slightly better than random, but I think I just got a bit overconfident and carried away yesterday.

[Hoopla]

I'm not unvoting, not sure I even buy the claim either. I don't get why you would do this if you could just kill Locke and bypass trying to convince anyone else to vote him. Although I guess if you are lying about being able to daykill, you don't have long to live.

I think Hoopla should just vig herself and then we proceed with lynching Shotty. Hoopla definitely needs to die, and it's better to do these things sooner rather than later, because her initial claim seems like a ploy to save herself, but then the counterclaim ruined her plan.

I'm okay with vigging myself if it's what the town wants to do.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla-

I don't get why you would do this if you could just kill Locke and bypass trying to convince anyone else to vote him.

I thought if Locke was scum, then I have a (probably) 50% chance of trapping him. Then if he isn't, it's a really good way to gauge his reaction. If it feels town, I can shoot RedCoyote instead.

[Hoopla]

I'm starting to think RedCoyote needs to die. What does everyone think about me taking him out to prove I am the killer?

[Hoopla]

Too late. It's sent.

[Hoopla]

I kind of wish I was bluffing, because I like you. Sigma is asleep though, so you have ~12 hours to get a lynch to save yourself.

[Hoopla]

you have ~12 hours to get a lynch to save yourself.

I doubt that would save him. The games I've read where this situation comes up has the Vig/SK go through when the day ends {ie- when the Mod shows up} as opposed to saving the target.

I kind of think you're wrong about RC being Scum, but I sure as hell hope you're not.

Hoopla- Why did you agree for the Town to direct your kill and then shoot anyway?

Because I trust my 100% pro-town motivated read moreso than a town consensus riddled with potential scum influence. The general consensus seems to be doubting my killing abilities more so than my alignment. When I am proved I can kill, it either means I am the vig or an SK. Either way, it's in scum's interest to take me out at night.

Who would you have wanted me to shoot, d3x?

[Hoopla]

Okay, I didn't kill anyone yet. Red's reaction, town or scum?

[Hoopla]

Do you think any scum were on MIC's final wagon?

[Hoopla]

Are you normally a 1-vote per day type of player d3x? I find it unusual, you vote MIC on page 1 and don't shift it. Dry-fit did this too for some reason, but 'confirm' at some stage which at least makes clear his position. You seem to question other players while clinging to your page 1 vote. Why?

[Hoopla]

I do have a tendency to park my Votes, yeah. I don't care for bouncing my Vote around a lot because I believe it needs to have weight to it. I do have a fairly good track record, so aside from a few embarassing games {one which sigma and Zach can both attest to when/if Zach finally shows his face} it hasn't done me

too

wrong thus far.

Flicking through your games, it does just look like a playstyle thing. It just irked me because the only other time I'd seen it happen is when I was scum with Cyberbob who parked his vote on our other buddy for the whole day until lynch. It proved to be quite an effective tactic, but I don't think you would do this is you were partners with MIC.

Going through the rest of the MIC lynch; Dry-fit has flipped town, we know Cathart is town, we should know I am not scum. That leaves charter and Shotty left on the MIC wagon. Funnily enough I can't see charter bussing so wrecklessly, especially a roleblocker. It just doesn't make sense to me - sure the vote came late, but I think my wagon was still in contention if he really wanted to protect MIC. Just doesn't feel like a charter play. I'm actually also getting vibes that Shotty probably isn't scum either based on his vote - it just again, seems like a silly thing to bus MIC, when he had even more time to get a different wagon pushed.

Scum would concious of this happening, however, and might normally have considered a late bus, but it isn't true with myself and Cathart being the ones to fill that slot. Charter maybe, but I still think it's a low chance. So why wouldn't scum bus in this scenario, knowing that anyone off the wagon would come under pressure the next day? Easy - the lurkers. I really think that one of them is probably scum, not only were both missing almost the whole day, they were both ominously off the MIC wagon. And I doubt the wagon would have gone through in the first place if 3 scum had been condensed in the remaining 10 players who had an influence in the game.

At the moment I see a scumteam containing one of Zach/Konowa and one of RedCoyote/Locke - because I just don't think both lurkers would be scum, AND MIC who was a lurker. The fact that scum killed someone

on

the MIC wagon suggests they are trying to keep the pool of players

off

the wagon as large as possible. Not wifom, trust me!

[Hoopla]

Quid pro quo- Do you usually Vote 6x D1? Also, why haven't you Voted at all today? I'm also still waiting on that fluff, btw.

It varies. I'd say about 5-6 votes per D1 is my average. What fluff are you talking about?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: why do you think it's unlikely that both lurkers are scum?

I don't know - it just seems so unlikely that the three lurkiest players on Day 1 would all turn up scum. I think one of them is almost definitely scum, and it's where I will take my shot today. The reason stems from how infrequently towns actually lynch scum on Day 1 - it's significantly less than random. I think this has to do with scums' ability to manipulate and steer lynches in a certain manner. Maybe if the mafia were inactive, they lose that edge a little bit.

Konowa's play matches up best with this theory. Of the few times he was actually around on Day 1, he was pushing alternate votes/wagons to MIC and, well, that's it really. He wasn't here any longer.

@Hoopla- p190Are you permitted to post flavor text?

I don't know, I'll ask!

[Hoopla]

Hi Bio Hazard, welcome to the game. Have you read the thread yet? Because I'm contemplating shooting you.

[Hoopla]

WOW, that was soooo scummy. You didn't want to use my day-kill? Even if I vigged myself, that is far better than a lynch.

That was even worse than my play! I think Bio Hazard did this because he knew I was going to take a shot at him. Nice play!

[Hoopla]

Do you seriously think scum has a night and daykill?

[Hoopla]

I was town this time too RedCoyote. Can you believe it?

[Hoopla]

Please avenge me and take out Bio Hazard tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

I always mess up when I get awesome roles, and never get to do much with them. So sad. We could have been lynching for the win today if I was quicker.

[Hoopla]

I, for one, had no idea why Zach felt compelled to bring her to L-1 either.

I found her to clearly be the most suspicious player out of anyone else. I felt like the pressure was warranted.

I did not expect to see her hammered so quickly though.

Ridiculously stupid play. Seriously, way worse than mine. I was either the vig or the SK, and I was offering you my kill (even on myself)! What the hell was your pressure going to do?

[Hoopla]

Blessing in disguise - the scumteam has appeared from nowhere! I hope you slightly more sensible townies can finish this off.

[Hoopla]

When have you ever seen a MAFIA DAY-VIG? Why would scum get a shot during the day and the night? This is a mini normal game!

....

I think Bio Hazard did this because he knew I was going to take a shot at him. Nice play!

That's exactly why I hammered.

Do you seriously think scum has a night and daykill?

Who said you had more than 1 shot?

lol.

[Hoopla]

I'm OK with people calling me scummy, but I don't see why my play is bad. Hoopla lied about her role, backed out of her claim, and made a crappy early kill (on a player on a scumwagon).

^That's not voteworthy? If not, what is?

I was giving the town my kill! That's why it isn't vote (hammer) worthy. If I went against orders, then by all means lynch me. You still got a lynch no matter what I did.

[Hoopla]

So you already lied about your role, and yet I'm supposed to trust you to do what we say?

The killing aspect of my role is provable - which almost certainly guarentees me to be vig or the SK.

[Hoopla]

So you already lied about your role, and yet I'm supposed to trust you to do what we say?

The killing aspect of my role is provable - which almost certainly guarentees me to be vig or the SK.

How?

By me claiming the first kill....

Then by me offering to make another day-kill...

Come on.

[Hoopla]

If I was lying about how many shots I had, then you shouldn't have needed to worry about being killed! Good luck surviving the noose tomorrow. Whoever is Bio's buddy needs to bus him hard to have any chance of winning.

[Hoopla]

Nice job townies! I was probably shaping to shoot Bio Hazard over Zachrulez - perhaps me dying was a good thing, because I was very wrong all game. What a waste of being day vigilante - I bet I'll never be one again.

[Hoopla]

I'm gonna go ahead and take the credit for this one. Obviously my two posts are what won the game here

Do you still love me?

[Hoopla]

I'm gonna go ahead and take the credit for this one. Obviously my two posts are what won the game here

Do you still love me?

How could I not?

*pets head*

[Hoopla]

sorry about the reckless hammer, hoopla.

Still, what possessed you to kill sotty on page 1?

Page 3 thankyou! And I was vibin' man, vibin'. Plus, I thought it'd FREAK scum out if they lost a team member so early. It would have totally crippled them psychologically, handing us two easy lynches. It was worth the risk!