890: Cults of Darkness and Shadow - Game over!

[Magua]

Oh, hey everybody!

/confir....oh, it's started.

Anyways.

Quick readthrough: Want to incant Datadanne, but this is a knee jerk reaction from me; I simply don't find Data's playstyle helpful as a town. I can entirely believe that Data clicked on the first PM and posted without bothering to click on the second.

Multilynching seems more like a flaw to the town than a bonus; I think that engineering the votes involves a lot of coordination, which scum are going to be better at than town. The easiest time for town to do it without scum interference is d1 or d2, but those are also the days when we'll have the least information.

Being a Percy game, I am unsurprised to see that there's no real confirmation possible. =P

My first FoS is going to go onto mipe, for expressing another one of my pet peeves: "will post more after work" followed by a four-line post.

Mod: Will alignment be revealed upon death? Will skills?

[Magua]

A breaking strategy has been brought to my attention - mass suicide! Nothing in the current ruleset prevents this tactic, and I think winning in this fashion would be rather unsatisfying for all involved. However, as it stands, this is the best strategy for town to pursue to guarantee them a "win".

Woo! I broke the game!

@Magua... Data has posted only four times and with very little content. What do you see as his playstyle and why don't you like it?

No content/useless content. One line (and sometimes one word) posts. I can't read it as scum from town, because there's nothing there to read. This isn't a Data scumtell -- was town last game -- it's just that I find it impossible to read, and would rather remove when we have misincants than when we don't.

Anyways. After consideration, I don't think that having incants out is bad until someone gets to L-2 or so as normal. It's not like the lynch deadline is going to move closer and catch us by surprise.

I still FoS Datadanne for utter unreadableness (as above), but I'm going to

Incant: mipe

for doing pretty much the same thing. I've at least seen Datadanne act exactly like this while being town in another game.

I find Faraday to be mildly scummy under the pressure that's being applied. I don't FoS Seacore at this point -- that is, I don't find him scummy in isolation -- but I do find the Seacore / Chaco conversation to be scummy

semioldguy isn't even on my radar, which worries me, especially in the case of semioldguy.

I approve of DeathSauce apologizing for a mistake instead of trying to defend it.

[Magua]

Magua, you state that you won't FoS Seacore, eventhough you do find the Seacore/Chaco conversation to be scummy. So why only mention that you won't FoS Seacore, but not Chaco, while being suspicious of the Seacore/Chaco convo?

I don't find Seacore suspicious for what he has posted, unlike a lot of other people. I don't find the 'vig' comment suspicious, I don't find the setup analysis suspicious, etc. I actually treat setup speculation as a slight towntell.

So, as I said, read in iso, I don't find Seacore suspicious. I only get suspicious reading him and Chaco together. It's not that I won't FoS, it's that I don't agree with the majority of the arguments used to incant him at the moment.

[Magua]

semioldguy is back and posting things. I feel so much better about him now.

(^^^ buddying)

Anyways:

mipe: I don't mind his voting the mod (WTF as it is). I don't mind his questions to the mod; he could've easily PMed them. His explanation of coming from a heavy-bastard environment makes sense to me. My problem remains one of his not making posts that contain content or stances. Votes seacore, but gives no reason for doing so (post 150, "Anyways, I have thought it, and I will incant the person who at this moment I think is most likely to be scum.")

I have no faith that there are roles given that aren't in the first post.

Datadanne: Voting mipe because he voted the mod is dumb. I would pretty much reiterate SerialClergyman in post #154 here if it wasn't posted already.

snow_bunny: Is fitting in just above Datadanne, IMO. One useful post is better than zero useful posts, but not by much.

Deathsauce: Town-read is falling, slightly, over the voting of mipe in iso post 7. There are plenty of reasons to vote mipe; that he voted for the mod or asked questions publically have to be the worst of them.

Chaco: Curious to see the vote. Don't like the buddying explanation given in iso post 12, especially when added in with the "it's a tarp" explanation.

I currently approve of: semioldguy, serialclergyman

[Magua]

Wow.

Just. Wow.

I seriously think you would've been less scummy if you just hadn't posted.

[Magua]

I don't have much time, I'm at work, but I wanted ot post about the mipe wagon.

If we were playign normal rules, mipe would be lynched by now. That's a little worrying, especially given he hasn't done much that would actually benefit scum, mostly just WTF moments.

Why mention this? We're *not* playing by normal rules, so how the game would progress under those rules is irrelevant. mipe is currently at L-3, L-2 come Saturday night.

And given English is not his first language so some of his odder comments might be poor translations or similar, he's not as scummy as this wagon suggests he should be.

As I said, at least, I don't care about his vote on the mod, or his questions to the mod, but concentrate more on his lack of scumhunting, and then his oppurtunistic vote on Seacore without any real explanation.

There is a lot of scum on the wagon, I'm sure.

As 7/12 are on this wagon, I am almost certain there are scum on it. I'm also almost certain there are scum off of it in the other 5/12.

But I'm curious about your usage of "a lot". How many scum do you believe constitutes "a lot"?

[Magua]

Define "dreamwalker-ish". How, exactly, are you different from the dreamwalker described in the OP?

[Magua]

It sounds like Mipe's scum partner is a Guardian, from reading between the lines.

...

And hidden roles in a semi-open game? IDK, as far as I'm concerned those are hidden mechanics.

I agree completely. I have zero confidence in mipe's claim, and thus have every confidence that he is lying.

I also approve of a Datadanne / mipe lynch. I'm not convinced that Datadanne will flip scum, but I do believe that Datadanne's play is antitown, regardless of alignment.

[Magua]

The earliest we could doublelynch would be 9 days from Saturday, so I don't see any rush.

[Magua]

I don't.

The only way I want two lynches to happen at once is if it happens naturally.

The only way a double lynch would happen naturally is with a split town. That would be a *bad* time for a double lynch.

The way I see it, double lynching is essentially like getting in two lynches per night. Does anyone *disagree* with the mipe lynch, aside from mipe? I've seen people not get on the wagon, but I haven't seen anyone express disapproval of the lynch.

semi, deathsauce, do you disagree with a datadanne lynch?

If the majority of people want to lynch mipe, I don't see why a smaller minority should be the ones choosing to do the second lynch (most of whom are also presumably part of that mipe-hate). Why do a select few get to vote your second suspect and not your top suspect?

Consider it being able to vote your top two suspects. We can certainly find out who everyone's second suspect is; like I said, we have 9 days until we could possibly do it (which even then woudl require 100% participation), so why not take the time to find out?

Furthermore it allows mipe's potential partners to lessen the blow or to have an excuse not to be voting their scum buddy.

If mipe's partners weren't already on the mipe wagon, that information is already there. But I really don't care about the partners; I care about removing antitown people. Unless Datadanne becomes confirmed by some dreamwalker claim later on, I'm going to support that lynch because it's impossible for me to determine if she's mafia or not.

[Magua]

So you think that the idea of a multilynch is good, but you feel that waiting 9 days is too long to do it?

And how exactly do you fear scum would use the situation to their advantage?

[Magua]

I am 100% set for a mipe lynch.

I am set for a Datadanne lynch, unless there's a lot of content forthcoming, which is something I don't really expect unless she's replaced.

[Magua]

lynching antitown players helps the town, even if those players are not scum.

Datadanne is an antitown player. I shall quote the entirety of all posts to date:

/Nevah gonna give you up!
Nevah gonna let you down!

(Lol, Look in the "Link" of the darkness pm.)

Hey, Percy got married, Congrats!

I was quickly looking through the roles, And thought (Hey, Why does the mafia pm have a link?)

Also, Remember to not Incant/Vote so quickly, As there is no unvoting Sad

Goddamn it. Razz

Incant mipe

Whats with voting the mod?

Quote:
Unincant Seacore


Are you retarded, Or just stupid?

Willpostmoarl8er.

Fin.

[Magua]

Alright then, how's this?

Datadanne should be lynched for:

1) Easy bandwagon hopping (mipe) with no reason, no thought, no discussion.

2) Lurking. "Willpostmoarl8er" was six days ago.

3) Ignores questions from the town to expand upon reasons for doing things.

These are all scummy actions, aren't they?

What would Datadanne have to do to get you to vote for her?

[Magua]

Unincant: mipe, Incant: Datadanne

Not so much because I want Datadanne lynched at this point, as I don't want mipe lynched.

I want to see if Datadanne gets replaced. I think it's important to get players to take positions now, rather than being able to wait until d2 and see what happens during the night before taking positions. Once we know if Datadanne is going to be replaced, I'll be more amenable to a lynch.

As for the double lynch: It's simple, really. You force the people being double lynched to vote for eachother. Failure to comply results in them getting lynched individually. Once they are voting eachother, neither one can oppurtunistically lynch the other at the last second. The only way that could occur is if a partner did it.

So semi's hypotheticals about scum using it to their advantage do not seem realistic to me -- it's fairly simple to construct a situation where they simply cannot without involving a partner, in which case we get two scum. If one or both refuses to go along with it, then it'll just be a single lynch.

I think my point here is that we obviously have two scum groups. I'm going to take a stab and say we have two nightkills. We can be optimistic about scum crosskills all we want, but the truth is, if we're all so certain that mipe is scum, we are best served by going after the next scummiest, because otherwise, for every person we lynch, *each* cult gets to decide a kill of their own. Two kills is greater than one lynch.

[Magua]

Magua, I don't understand. Are you saying you don't want to lynch mipe now and want him hung out as a night kill target, or that you don't want him lynched without a double lynch, or what?

I do want mipe lynched, and mipe is 100% getting lynched today. But I didn't want mipe lynched until Datadanne got replaced.

Magua's recent post makes my scumdar sizzle

Incant:mipe

If mipe flips scum then Magua is one of his partners

Perhaps you should try reading the entire post instead of only the bolded words. Might be a little more effort, but should be worth it.

I approve of dramonic replacing Datadanne, and this removes my reason for wanting Datadanne lynched. Once Percy confirms, I'm good with the lynch going forward.

[Magua]

Your intentional missing the reason for unvoting mipe when he was at L-1 -- and then you placing him at L-1 with your vote -- have been noted.

Your question is sarcastic, but I'll answer it anyways.

If someone (say, mipe) is going to be lynched, it is in their best interests that someone else be lynched as well, unless they are convinced that the other person is of the same alignment/group as them.

This is pretty obvious if the person to be lynched is scum. If the person is town, at this point, it comes down to what they think of the other person. If they think that the other person is scum, they should be for the double lynch. If they think the other person isn't scum, they should be against the double lynch, and instead be naming/fighting for the person they think is scum to be lynched.

So, assuming that we are lynching Person A (primary) and Person B (secondary), we reach two possibilities:

Person A doesn't want Person B lynched: Votes someone else, becomes impossible to engineer a double lynch anyways. Just lynch Person A.

Person A *does* want Person B lynched: Will play along, as above. Now Person B is in the same position as A was in -- they can play along and get both lynched, or they can refuse to play along and only get themselves lynched.

I'll repeat this again, since it seems to have slipped your grasp: The more town directed lynches there are between nightkills, the better off town is.

[Magua]

@DeathSauce: No. They definitively would not survive. There is no hope for their survival.

It is simply a matter of being presented with these options:

1) You die.

2) You and [other person] die.

Unless you believe [other person] is a member of your same group, you pick #2.

If you were town and seriously believed [other person] was town, then, sure, you refuse, and you'd get lynched solo. But if you were town and believed that [other person] was scum, you would most certainly play along.

@dramonic: There's no unvotes, and I don't want to place the vote on someone else. I'll vote mipe once you're confirmed as the replacement.

[Magua]

I was thinking about this d1. Given the specificness of the "skills are irrespective of alignments" in the OP, I'm almost positive that mipe had a guardian partner.

But, I wouldn't classify one of the scum as investigation immune -- to me, investigation immune means you turn up inno

Guardians don't make you innocent on an investigation; they make you turn up no result. So there's no fake confirmation of innocent or whatnot.

[Magua]

I've been thinking. Darkness cult killed Seacore. Darkness cult is already down a member. One would expect this would meant that Darkness cult legitimately thought that Seacore was a cultist.

Looking back, I think the person who was strongest on the "Seacore is cult" wagon is Discode.

Unfortunately, Discode hasn't posted in over a week.

Mod, prod Discode please.

So, for a second place guess, I'm going to go with startransmission, who was early on the Seacore wagon and late on the mipe wagon.

Incant: startransmission

[Magua]

Magua, do you care which scum team we lynch today?

Not particularly. Any scum lynch is a good lynch. I simply think it's easiest to follow back from why Seacore would die and find those who would see him as a threat.

[Magua]

I want more from dramonic. Right now it's been "Chaco is scummy" with little explanation. Now, this is a big step up from Datadanne, but I still want more in terms of an explanation.

Here's what catches my eye on reread:

339: strartransmission makes a buddying charge against semioldguy and dramonic, and then incants dramonic.

I agree it looks like some buddying is going on; however, it looks to me likes its semioldguy to dramonic, not the other way around. And, of course, we see from d1 the same charge of buddying applied to chaco and Seacore, and Seacore was town.

@startransmission: So why incant dramonic, and not semioldguy?

@chaco: Would you lay an incant down, please?

[Magua]

@Magua
Also I don't see where I am buddying to dramonic, would you mind directing me to where you get this notion?

It's a repeated iteration of "I have no read on dramonic" with the undertone of "And I'm not suspicious of this." Now, for your consistency, you said the same thing about Datadanne. But I found that to be suspicious as well.

Me, if I have no read on someone, I ask them to post more. You haven't done this thing. dramonic and you are voting similarly, but dramonic's reasoning hasn't been given. You seem perfectly capable of picking up on small details and questioning people about them (eg, Faraday), but you don't seem interested in making dramonic expound on his point of view. That rings as an inconsistency.

Now, I don't actually think that you and dramonic are scumbuddies, simply being very agreeable with eachother. But if "buddying" is the rationale for startransmission's vote, I wanted more reasoning for it.

[Magua]

@Magua: my reasoning has been given <<

I'm going to assume you mean your iso post #5.

Of those, I think all of them are crap reasons except for the fifth (incanting and then leaving for a week), which is ironic, as it's more or less what Datadanne did, except with less reasons given. So....

But, I appreciate you taking a definite stand. =P

[Magua]

After reading through about half of the semioldguy / Chaco rant, I skipped to the end.

Look. It's pretty simple:

Chaco takes "X is not scummy" as "X is town."
semioldguy takes "X is not scummy" as "I have not detected any scumminess in X."

There. The end. semioldguy even makes this point at the end of page 17, and yet the discussion...keeps...going.

Anyways.

I find Chaco's responses in the ongoing grammar lesson to be scummier than semioldguy's. semioldguy seems to be trying to explain himself, and even says, "Oh, look, see, it's this miscommunication", while Chaco continues to paint it as "You slipped, let's lynch", which seems all out of proportion to what's being discussed.

I don't buy Snow Bunny's line of argument for incanting SerialClergyman.

I find Faraday more townie than I did before.

[Magua]

@mod: Snow_Bunny is incanting SerialClergyman, not startransmission.

I'm getting happier and happier with my startransmission vote. I encourage people to drop their lesser, weaker bandwagons and join this one instead. Or, at the very least, comment on it. =P

Snow_Bunny's attacks on SerialClergyman are reminding me of the attacks on Seacore d1. There are legitimate reasons for voting SC, but I'm struck by how fixated Snow has gotten on the "town PR" tangent. DeathSauce and Faraday's arguments are much more persuasive to me.

[Magua]

Here's a comment- fuck you.

Ok, just kidding. Couldn't resist. What about my recent posts makes your vote on me seem more sound? Why are the other bandwagons (and that really only leaves the SC wagon) a lesser wagon?

Oh, man. And the mod had just asked for us to watch our language! =P

But since you asked: You're just too out there. People have definite reads on Chaco and dramonic and Snow_Bunny -- but no one seems to have a read on you. You're just very blah and not much else. semioldguy has a slight town read on you while you have your vote on him; that's about all.

Magua: why again are you voting against stark? I feel that you have not really gave a good reason why you are voting against him. Also why not go with snowbunny instead of stark?

Snow Bunny is aggressive that I would expect her to get nightkilled. I don't expect aggressive play from mafia in this game until one of the cults is eliminated.

[Magua]

I am 99.99% that startransmission is a dreamwalker. At this point, I'm willing to say I'm 95% that he's even town. So, time to move my vote:

Unincant: startransmission, Incant: Heilograph

I still think Snow Bunny's argument on SC is bollocks. But I am persuaded by deathsauce's and Faraday's arguments as to SC being the most likely (besides perhaps Discode/Heilograph) to be mipe's partner.

But reading SC's iso post #35, he points out that the scum can daytalk, and rereading the OP, I see this is true. In light of this, mipe's claim absolutely boggles the mind, unless he is partnered with a complete newbie (not seeing one around), or his partner was flaking and not responding to communication. That would fix it onto Discode or datadanne/dramonic. Since datadanne seemed to have little trouble jumping onto the mipe wagon, Discode/Heilograph it is.

Getting back to startransmission: I think it was a bad idea to claim. As far as I can tell, it boils down to two possibilities:

1) semioldguy was protected by a scum guardian. Great! We lynch him. And then our dreamwalker dies. Not really a good trade, in my opinion.

2) semioldguy was protected by a town guardian. Boo! Now we've outted either one or two pr's. Also not a good trade.

I do believe we'll know tomorrow whether there's a town guardian or not, by whether startransmission is dead or not. (I am choosing to ignore the idea that there may be a scum team with a dreamwalker and a guardian.)

[Magua]

Didn't you say that stark was the dreamwalker in the beginning of your post?
Based on what you know, do you believe that he guardain is scum or town in our opinion?

I did say that. But as stated in the OP, roles do not indicate alignment.

As for town or scum for the guardian -- I'm almost positive, based on mipe's d1, that there is a scum guardian(s). However, the existence of scum guardians does not rule out the existence of town guardians, or vice versa. I think it's too early to play "outguess the mod".

semioldguy hasn't tripped my scumdar. I'm willing to believe what startransmission says at this point, but I'm not going to vote semioldguy because of a protection.

[Magua]

Nothing much has changed.

I agree with Serial that the scum teams are balanced.
I further believe that Darkness has a guardian.
I don't believe there are six scum.
Ergo:
I believe Darkness is a guardian and a goon.
I believe Shadow is a guardian and a goon, or three goons.

Since Shadow didn't have a night kill last night, either there is a town guardian, or there is a Darkness guardian who protected a townie. I do not believe there is a Darkness guardian who protected a Darkness goon, as I do not believe there is another Darkness goon.

Given all this, the line of thought that says "semi was protected, therefore he is scum" makes no sense to me. He could be scum -- not ruling that possibility out -- but if we remove the "was protected" line, then I'm not feeling it for today.

Looking over the last two days, SerialClergyman and I agree on a number of basic assumptions (as does apparently startransmission), yet SC and I come to exactly opposite ideas of what this means in regards to semioldguy, because SC jumps on the semi wagon almost immediately. If I can't get a Heilograph lynch, I would rather see SerialClergyman incanted than semioldguy.

All of that being said, I think lynching startransmission today is a really, really, really bad idea.

[Magua]

I heartily encourage someone to jump onto the Heilograph lynch. I think semioldguy's vote is wasted on startransmission -- he's not getting lynched today.

Heilograph has made no defense. Hasn't done much of anything. There's a lot of evidence that he is mipe's partner.

I'd prefer a Heilograph lynch over anything else. I'd prefer a SerialClergyman lynch over a semioldguy lynch. I will switch to SerialClergyman tomorrow if nothing has changed.

[Magua]

But reading SC's iso post #35, he points out that the scum can daytalk, and rereading the OP, I see this is true. In light of this, mipe's claim absolutely boggles the mind, unless he is partnered with a complete newbie (not seeing one around), or his partner was flaking and not responding to communication. That would fix it onto Discode or datadanne/dramonic. Since datadanne seemed to have little trouble jumping onto the mipe wagon, Discode/Heilograph it is.

@dramonic: I don't want a double lynch today. I fully expect that if I change my vote onto SerialClergyman that semioldguy would switch his vote over as well instead of being lynched.

[Magua]

Right. Ok, not voting SerialClergyman today then, either.

(Never would've gotten that breadcrumb, by the way.)

I feel I've gotten a better read in the differences of our opinions, now, but I'm curious as to why you assume that dramonic was the target of the shadow kill? I guess my real problem with this theory is that I don't see a good reason for Datadanne/dramonic to be the target of an n1 kill. I do agree that its highly unlikely Datadanne was mipe's partner, but it's a big jump from "dramonic is not Darkness cult" to "dramonic is innocent".

Anyways, I'm not going to jump wagons, but I'd urge you to join the Heilograph bandwagon

[Magua]

I can see stratransmission's claim: we have obvious evidence there is a guardian that stopped a scum kill, and we're relatively certain that the other scum team is only one person. So it makes sense that there's a town guardian.

SerialClergyman's claim makes less sense. I wish that he had simply voted Heilograph rather than claiming. It comes down to two possibilities, neither of which are very good:

1) There aren't two town guardians. SerialClergyman dies.
2) There are two town guardians. SerialClergyman won't die. But, on the other hand, two town guardians shoots a hole in the whole argument SerialClergyman is using to get a semioldguy lynch.

So either SC dies, or SC lives but the reason SC has for lynching semi (and thus the reason for claiming) are worthless.

[Magua]

Thought for sure that Snow Bunny was a dreamwalker after Serial's flip.

By the end of d1, I was also convinced that Startransmission was a Shadow (Shadow know who they tried to kill, so obvious their target was guarded...). Had I been alive d2, I probably would've pushed for his lynch for still being alive as well, along with Chaco's. Never really suspected Faraday -- well done.

Both mipe's and Serial's play confused me to no end. I think town might've actually done better had Darkness not been taken out so early, because of the crosskill possibility that never manifested.

First time I've had a pr on this site. Need to work on not softclaiming so bloody loudly it seems.

=P