Open 199 - Friends, Enemies, and Enemies - OVER

[evilsnail]

Vote: RayFrost

For posting above me.

[evilsnail]

Bleh, danakillsu is so obviously inexperienced that it seems weird to jump all over that.

Unvote,
Vote: SaintKerrigan

[evilsnail]

But look how quick he is to deny that he treated xReck's questions seriously. Doesn't that feel slightly off to you?

Not really. It sounds like he's saying that he didn't treat xReck as being serious about wanting to be lynched.

How is it weird that I "jumped" on DKU?

Well, it could be scum trying to go for an easy newb lynch by treating something innocuous as something revealing. So, better than my random vote.

[evilsnail]

Considering that most mafia games take longer than that, I don't see what your point is.

[evilsnail]

Some experience does not mean much. And I read that post. I just don't see it that way. Deal with it.

[evilsnail]

Either you can be suspect for reading it differently as well as us or it's a null tell.

Obviously I can be suspect for reading it differently too. You started arguing with me! I never attacked you for suspecting me. There's no hypocrisy here at all.

[evilsnail]

You suspected sainty for suspecting DKU's post.

I was pointing out that you suspecting sainty for something but saying you aren't suspect for it was hypocritical.

Hypocrisy =/ disagreeing with someone.

I think my reading is the more sensible one. Hence, no hypocrisy.

[evilsnail]

Nah, that's not what I meant. It was mostly snark, borne out of frustration from having to argue points to death in a number of other games recently.

I genuinely believe that what danakillsu said was fairly innocent and that, if you look it his response closely, there's really not that much there.

[evilsnail]

Did a post just disappear? I agreed with that guy!

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

[evilsnail]

Guys, seriously, why the fook is everyone ignoring Flareonage

Can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually agree with you on this. His last vote was pretty terrible. Fate basically had to tell him what he should be thinking.

Unvote,
Vote: Flareonage

[evilsnail]

Being annoying =/ being scummy.

FOS: yawetag

He's obviously voting you for fishing for info about Masons.

[evilsnail]

You are the first person on this site to say so. Thanks much. Most seem to want to lynch me for no reason in every game. Might have something to do with my newbie playstyle.

This happens. It gets better, as you learn the more common scum tells. Though it helps to be more conservative with your vote. From what I've seen of your play, you change votes relatively frequently. That can make people suspicious if they don't like your reasoning (even though there's nothing necessarily anti-town about using your vote). So vote less, but with more argumentation.

Anyway, sorry I didn't check in for a bit. Still a fan of a Flareonage wagon. I also pretty much agree that there's not much sense in asking for a claim.

[evilsnail]

CryMeARiver, I'm not sure your DKU-Flare scum theory really holds up to scrutiny. Flare defending DKU is pretty meaningless. It could just as well be buddying. In addition, the fact that they voted the same person together at some point doesn't mean much. DKU then proceeds to vote Flare, and in a way that doesn't read like a bus to me.

To be honest, I found SaintKerrigan's wishy-washy behaviour regarding the Flare lynch towards the end of the day more scumbuddyish than those things combined.

[evilsnail]

ummm...
@RayFrost
If Flare is scummy and needs to die, why is your vote on me???

I don't keep track of my vote.

In taking another read through the thread, this jumped out at me.

Why don't you keep track of your vote? Not only does the mod post it in intervals, it's on the first post of the thread. Barring that, there should be no reason for you NOT to know where your vote is cast.

You realise RayFrost was NKed, right?

[evilsnail]

[evilsnail]

Everyone should quickly pile their votes on mavsfan.

Vote: mavsfan

Totally agree with this. His Day 1 posts were scummilicious. I toyed with the idea of voting him in my first post today, but I'd like to see him actually post first.

[evilsnail]

Masons will list their partner, as well as a random third person. A Mason kill at night, or even a Mason lynch, will cause a counter-claim between the two "trusted" players -- especially if one of them is non-town. So, this puts us in the same situation we're already in. Our position would be no better than it is now. Neither of the "trusted" players can be fully trusted, and the town will be forced to lynch one of them.

This is a strong chance that both of the trusted players will be townies, though. And, if someone fake-claims Mason, we'll soon find out who the real mason was. Honestly, narrowing down scum to two people is good for town. It increases our chances significantly.

That said, I'm not sure there's necessarily a point to this. Breadcrumbing is much more effective and masons can tell each other how they breadcrumbed during the night. That way, we can be pretty sure all the masons have info to back up their claim.

We should not NL today because of mavsfan. If we can get him modkilled, that's awesome, because it's like having an extra lynch. In no way does that motivate no lynching. Getting mavsfan modkilled means we can get two lynches with one night phase instead of two lynches with two night phases.

Pretty sure CMAR is the way to go today.

Vote: CryMeARiver

[evilsnail]

We have that chance if we lynch twice as well. Except then we have an extra night phase tacked on, which means we lose.

Besides, just randomly, there's a 77% chance scum is either our lynch target, mavs or hit on a cross-kill after.

Optimal play is to let mavs get modkilled and lynch anyway. You can do the math yourself.

[evilsnail]

It's perhaps instructive to compare the worst-case scenarios for both.

Lynch + modkill:
Day 2 - Lynch player X and get mavs modkilled. Both turn up town.
Night 2 - Two townies NKed.
Day 3 - LyLo. We lynch player Y. Y is town.
Night 4 - Remaining mafia member killed and one townie. We lose.

No Lynch + modkill/lynching mavs:
Day 2 - mavs modkilled. Turns up town.
Night 2 - Two townies NKed.
Day 3 - Lynch player X. Turns up town.
Night 4 - One townie and the remaining mafia member killed. We lose.

Same outcome, but on the first scenario we have one extra shot at avoiding this result, because we get to lynch player Y.

Look at it this way. On the first scenario, there are two townies left, one mafia member and two werewolves on Day 3. On the second scenario, we have the same group, but in Night 4. It's obviously better for us for it be to Day, in the same way that a Day start is better for town than a Night start.

[evilsnail]

Your comparisons are off.

You shouldn't compare both scenarios at the same point (D3 in your scenario), because at this point we have had an extra lynch on the modkill+lynch scenario. To make this work, you're assuming an extra mislynch on that scenario, on D3. If you assume that on the lynch mavs scenario, we also autolose. So we are better off on the modkill+lynch scenario.

My math was quite basic:
Chance of mavs not being scum - 2/3
Chance of not lynching scum, assuming mavs town - 5/8
Chance of mafia not hitting scum, assuming mavs and lynch town - 2/3
Chance of werewolves not hitting scum, assuming mavs and lynch town - 4/5

2/3*5/8*2/3*4/5 = roughly 22%. Ergo, there's a 77% chance of a scenario in which a scum dies.

Please point out the problem in this calculation. I'm not a math genius, so maybe I'm overlooking something here, but I think this holds up.

[evilsnail]

I wasn't taking several scenarios. I was calculating the odds of the scenario in which no scum dies. To do that requires multiplying the odds of the component parts.

But regardless, my point about your comparison stands. If you think about this carefully, you'll see that I'm right.

[evilsnail]

I meant for both of these to be in the same post. I apologize for the frequent EBWOPs.

Your comparisons are off.

You shouldn't compare both scenarios at the same point (D3 in your scenario), because at this point we have had an extra lynch on the modkill+lynch scenario.

No, it's a very fair place to compare both scenarios. It's the point of losing or being in LYLO. Yes, it's worst-case, but you have to account for worst-case or you lose. That's what MYLO and LYLO hinge on.

You're not getting my point. It's fair to compare both scenarios, but it's meaningless to do so on the same days, because the scenarios entail moving at different speeds.

You're assuming a mislynch on your modkill+lynch mavs scenario that's not in your other scenario. Therefore, the scenarios are imbalanced. If you assume the same mislynch in the other scenario, on D4 with 2/0/1, we also autolose.

[evilsnail]

I checked my math and it's fine. Yawetag, could you calculate for me the odds of not hitting scum at all on the modkill+lynch scenario? I think you'll find you get the same answer.

[evilsnail]

Not true, you do have an extra lynch. It's right here:

Here are the numbers assuming only townies are killed and lynched (in town/maf/wolves order) if we lynch someone other than mavs:
After D2 - 4/1/2
After N2 - 2/1/2
After D3 - 1/1/2

D3 in this scenario has a townie lynch. This is not mavs or today's lynch (since these take place on D2), so it's an extra mislynch.

Maybe it'll help you to think of it this way. Suppose that instead of a modkill, the punishment for lurking was: a night phase is skipped and the lurker is the next day's autolynch. This is equivalent to a modkill, if you think about it.

That way, the worst-case scenarios are as follows:

modkill+lynch:
D2: lynch player X = town
N2: skipped, because of lurker
D3: autolynch mavs = town
N3: two townies killed
D4: lynch player Y = town/mafia
N4: town/mafia killed, werewolves win

lynch mavs:
D2: lynch mavs = town
N2: two townies killed
D3: lynch player X = town
N3: one townie, one mafia killed, town loses

In the first scenario, we last longer and get an extra lynch. I don't see why this is hard to comprehend for you.

You do see that having multiple lynches is good for town, right? This is why there are 4 scum in a Nightless setup, for instance.

Your math does not add up, btw. You don't even have a situation listed in which all three scum die (which can happen if one of CMAR/mavs is a werewolf and scum cross-kill each other). Clearly, you're doing something wrong.

[evilsnail]

You are wrong because the Day 3 townie in situation #2 is lynched on Day 2 in situation #1. There is an extra townie lynch, the Day 3 lynch, in situation #1. If you add this to situation #2, on Day 4, we also autolose. Situation #2 is then worse, because we have a chance of not even getting to the point where we can get that lynch.

And it is important to have this argument, because there's a chance someone might believe you and it would be bad for town not to take advantage of this opportunity.

No, you're looking at it wrong. You wanted to know the odds of hitting scum with a lynch and a modkill. This has NOTHING to do with night actions, only the actions of the town during the day and the modkill that will presumably happen before night begins. In that case, there are only three possibilities: scum/scum, scum/town, town/town. Nothing else.

I wanted to know the odds of hitting scum with a lynch, modkill and cross-kills. This is then where our calculations differ. I think you'll see that if you include cross-kills, you get that 22% I got. At which point you'll also (hopefully) finally realise that my math was not faulty, as you claimed.

[evilsnail]

Argh, how can you not be getting this? I'll first address your calculation and then the WCS.

Your calculation is wrong, though it is on the right track now at least. The first two fractions are right, but the second two are affected by the fact that scum will not kill themselves. So, mafia has a 4/6 chance of hitting a townie, because the mafia member takes themselves out of the equation. Similarly, the werewolves are actually choosing from 5 players out of 7, because they are not going to target themselves. So, the last fraction should be 4/5. Using these will yield you:

2/3*5/8*2/3*4/5 = roughly 22%.

And taking this into account makes sense, btw, because the nightkills do affect our situation.

[evilsnail]

So you think you're right, but your hope is that someone believes me and takes advantage of it? Do you normally double-talk? I agree that the argument is nice, but it's getting to the point of hurting town more than helping.

No, that's not what I said. I'm right and I hope we take advantage of this opportunity to have two lynches. You're wrong and this argument is important, because someone might believe you and try to squander this opportunity with you.

Okay, now let's see if I can get you to see my point about the WCS.

Suppose we have three scummy players that we want to get lynched:
CMAR, mavs and yawetag

Let's ignore the complexities of scumhunting and suppose that these will be the town's lynches, in the order given above. The town will lynch these players when they get the opportunity. This then reflects the town's effort at scumhunting. Of course, these are worst-case scenarios, so it turns out that these players are all townies.

Now, let's go to scenario #1.

Scenario #1

Day 2: CMAR is lynched and mavs is modkilled. 4 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member.
Night 2: Two townies are killed. 2 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member.
Day 3: yawetag is lynched. 1 townie is left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member. No way for the town to win.

In this scenario, hitting three townies in a row causes town the game.

Now, let's see what hitting three townies in a row does for town in scenario #2.

Scenario #2

Day 2: mavs is lynched. 5 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member.
Night 2: 2 townies are killed. 3 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member.
Day 3: CMAR is lynched. 2 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia.

Now, there are two possibilities. Night 3 can go bad for town, costing it the game. In this case, just hitting

two

townies in a row with lynches has cost the town the game.

This possibility never arises in scenario #1 and is why scenario #1 is superior for town

.

Night 3 can also go well for town. Let's consider this option, finally:

Night 3: The scum cross-kill and we have 2 townies, 1 werewolf and 1 mafia member left.
Day 4: yawetag is lynched. Town loses.

Now, hitting three townies in a row has cost the town the game. This is equivalent to scenario #1.

As such, scenario #2 is always either equivalent or worse than scenario #1.

[evilsnail]

Night 3: The scum cross-kill and we have 2 townies, 1 werewolf and 1 mafia member left.

Er.. this should be "2 townies and 1 werewolf," of course.

[evilsnail]

We're almost done, I promise.

[evilsnail]

Anyone who thinks yawetag is right should read my 251. It should show you why he's wrong.

Shrinehme, what phase we lose in doesn't matter. It's about how much scumhunting we can get done. If we only lynch/modkill one person today, there's a chance two mislynches will cost us the game. If we modkill and lynch, we will always have three lynches.

If you think of the modkill as an extra nightless day instead, which is effectively what it is, then you'll see that we actually end up in a losing situation later.

[evilsnail]

You're right. After I posted it, I realized the werewolves have one less target to choose from. With that, I get either 79.2% or 80%, depending on whether you take mafia's choice or werewolves' shot first. So, your 77% from before is really close.

'kay, good. We can forget about the math then.

Let's forget the math for a second. Let's even forget the situations. Let's look at your idea in the most basic way we can.

We both agree that looking at worst-case scenario is what we're doing. By agreeing with that, we've both used the scenario where only townies are lynched and killed.

Yes.

Using that agreement, you are arguing that killing two townies in one day is better for the town. There is NO situation in ANY normal setup where an extra death of a townie is better for the town. Any time a townie dies, that's one less townie -- there's no other way to look at it. When we lose an extra townie, the town is one death closer to losing.

Yes, that is exactly it. Killing two townies in one day is better for the town. Why? Because otherwise we kill the same two townies in two days. If we don't lynch CMAR today, but tomorrow, that only means we have an extra night phase with more dead townies. A modkill is effectively an extra nightless day.

Your constant arguing against this basic principle of the game of Mafia started off as a simple mistake on your part. However, your unwilling to see the truth is now toeing a line of FoS. It now appears that you're trying to manipulate the town into agreeing with you, hoping you can set the trap of no chance for town to win.

This is so bizarre. Your argument is hurting town, not mine.

[evilsnail]

And what do we do tomorrow if CMaR is killed today? We lynch someone else. Lynching CMaR today doesn't nullify the fact that we still have to lynch tomorrow.

Yes, if we lynch CMAR and he's town, we have an extra shot at lynching tomorrow. An extra shot at hitting scum.

If we lynch CMAR tomorrow, there's a good chance that, if he turns up town, we don't get that extra shot. That's the point of lynching him today. It ensures we get that extra shot.

[evilsnail]

Yes, lynching an extra body helps town, because it's an extra shot to hit scum!

Honestly, how do you propose playing mafia without lynching? You have to accept the risk of hitting town in order to hit scum.

[evilsnail]

Yawetag, there's no issue of feelings or ideas to it. You are quantifiably wrong.

If CMAR and mavs are town:

On your scenario, we have a 41.7% chance of losing immediately (this is the chance of losing two townies Night 2 and Night 3 producing a loss + the chance of werewolves killing mafia and mafia killing a townie Night 2, which is also an autoloss).

On my scenario, we have a 0% chance of losing immediately.

I agree, though, that this discussion isn't getting us anywhere. We should be lynching CMAR.

[evilsnail]

There's no issue of feelings or ideas to it. You are quantifiably wrong.

If CMAR and mavs are town:

On your scenario, we have a 41.7% chance of losing immediately (this is the chance of losing two townies Night 2 and Night 3 producing a loss + the chance of werewolves killing mafia and mafia killing a townie Night 2, which is also an autoloss).

On my scenario, we have a 0% chance of losing immediately.

I agree, though, that this discussion isn't getting us anywhere. We should be lynching CMAR.

[evilsnail]

ON the yawetag/evilsnail argument, I agree that the possibility of town losing 2 bodies, and then possibly 2 more tonight too big of a risk...and evilsnail keeps bringing up that "lynching is the way mafia is played"...first of all, don't generalize this to the entire site, it depends on the situation...second, we would still be getting a "lynch" out of mavsfan...it just as normal as any other mafia game's day...What you are going for is a double lynch which is not usually "how the way mafia is played"...Also pointing out that if you look at evilsnail's argument as if he is scum, then it does match (trying to lynch two possible townies and try and put them at Lylo)

lol

[evilsnail]

Not sure what that's about, but I do agree that the argument that you two are having is going nowhere else, you both have different opinions and nobody is changing... any opinion on my argument against xRex and his counter?

Sorry, I just thought that your thoughts on my discussion with yawetag were quite dumb. Probably could have been more polite about that. I think your case against xReck is flimsy at best. It's pretty obvious that his playstyle is just like that.

I think others have outlined quite well why the case on you is a good one. That's why I didn't bother doing it myself and just voted you.

[evilsnail]

Come on guys, we only have a few days left before the deadline and we need a majority to lynch.

If CMAR is not today's lynch, he'll be tomorrow's lynch. It's really a waste to have an extra night phase.

[evilsnail]

Just one more vote, people. Otherwise we've basically wasted a day.

[evilsnail]

Yes, the same logic applies.

The basic mechanism of mafia is that, during the day, the town gets to kill someone and, during the night, the mafia does. These are the basics of the game. Two teams trying to kill each other. The mafia just have fewer people, to balance out the fact that they get to participate in choosing who the town kills.

So, obviously, if one team gets an extra kill, that's a boost to that team. Two lynches are good for town just like two kills are good for scum.

[evilsnail]

Imagine a setup in which town gets to lynch twice every day. Would you put in more or fewer scum to balance this out?

[evilsnail]

Thank god someone hammered.

@CMAR: ?
Paranoid Gun Owner isn't in the set-up.

[evilsnail]

Pretty sure we need to be lynching The Tracker today. I'll outline the reasons why more extensively later.

It's a good thing we lynched a werewolf yesterday. Otherwise we'd have lost automatically on a mislynch. We should still treat today as LyLo, though. If we mislynch, the only way we can win is if the remaining scum cross-kill each other.

[evilsnail]

Btw, cdubs, if you're town, you really need to post more. We can't afford to lose another townie to a modkill.

[evilsnail]

It's a good thing we lynched a werewolf yesterday. Otherwise we'd have lost automatically on a mislynch.

So now you're agreeing with me? Interesting.

No, I wasn't agreeing with you, because you are wrong.

What I meant was that CMAR turning up werewolf instead of mafia is fortunate because we're not necessarily at LyLo today. Though, thinking about that now, that doesn't really make sense, because we'd also have had an NK less... So forget I said that.

[evilsnail]

God, you're not serious, are you? I said what you say here in my last post:

And, for fairness, killing a mafia would have been just as good, and even better. It would have been one less death at night, since mafia would have been dead.

What I meant was that CMAR turning up werewolf instead of mafia is fortunate because we're not necessarily at LyLo today. Though, thinking about that now, that doesn't really make sense, because we'd also have had an NK less... So forget I said that.

I just forgot for a moment that a mafia lynch yesterday would have meant an NK less. There's nothing more to it than that.

I'm not getting how that bears on anything you said yesterday, to be honest.

[evilsnail]

Okay, the case against The Tracker.

1) He has basically done no scumhunting of his own. He jumped on both the Flare and CMAR wagons very late and has contributed nothing except for a FOS on danakillsu, one of the masons. I was just in another game with him, in which he was town, and he was much more actively trying to find scum.

2) His Flareonage vote was scummilicious:

Good to go, huh? I think the day lasted long enough and even though I know I never put a case on Flareon, consider this: he's made some scumlicious posts and has otherwise been useless. Scum or a simple VI? This might put me on the chopping block, but as gamblers always say, there'll always be another game.

vote: Flareonage

This was like page seven or something. No way the day has lasted long enough. Also, there's some pre-emptive defense here, which feels off.

[evilsnail]

Evil, if the conversation hadn't been stagnating then I wouldn't have bothered saying that. It's foolish to draw out a day with 'more discussion' when there is no more discussion to be had. Yeah, I've mostly been jumping on bandwagons but I find the wagon leaders had good points. Nothing wrong with agreeing, is there?

Well no, but you haven't really been contributing much yourself.

Oh, and as for saying there was no reason for me to hammer, consider the deadline was less than 24 hours away. Would you not agree a lynch period is better than no lynch? I really had no choice to start up a new conversation, I was damned either way.

The point about the deadline is fair enough. My main problem with the hammer vote was that you were basically already making excuses for the vote in that post. The day having been long enough and your pre-emptive defense. I don't believe that this is a pro-town player who agrees Flare looks like scum. It feels like someone who knows or at least has a very good idea of Flare's alignment.

[evilsnail]

I'm not a huge fan of meta.

Fair enough. I usually steer away from it, but I was just in a game with him and his play and the tone of his posts seem noticeably different. And my main point here is that he's not done any scumhunting. Also, I can easily see both of his real votes as bussing.

[evilsnail]

I don't think we need to be too concerned about voting. It's pretty hard for scum from different teams to coordinate. That said, there's a little bit of a risk and there's no danger in being cautious.

@The Tracker: Even though bussing is not a viable strategy for scum, I don't see yawetag-wolf trying to save his buddy

that

obviously. I mean, even if you hadn't hammered, CMAR would have been lynched today. In addition, yawetag was voting xReck D1 with Flare, which I don't see scumbuddies doing, especially not when one of them is about to be lynched. I'm pretty sure yawetag is town.

[evilsnail]

Although I definitely agree that yawetag was wrong about the CMAR lynch yesterday, I do think he was sincere in his beliefs. So I'm not sure your evidence is as strong as you make it out to be.

[evilsnail]

I think yawetag would be a terrible lynch today. I'd much rather lynch The Tracker.

Cdubs is worrying me a little bit. He doesn't strike me as town or anything, but him getting modkilled could basically take this game out of our hands.

[evilsnail]

Okay, I've been thinking about this game a lot. I'll first do a post about the possibility of cdubs getting modkilled and then I'll do one on who I think is the scumz and why.

First, note that

the deadline is in four days

and, in the ideal situation, cdubs posts before then and doesn't limit our options.

@MOD:

Is it possible to get a prod on cdubs? I looked over the rules, but it wasn't clear to me whether prods are done in BaM games. Probably not, but I figured I'd give it a shot.

Now, we need to allow for the possibility that cdubs doesn't post. There are two logical possibilities: cdubs is scum or cdubs is town.

cdubs is town

- If we No-Lynch, the only way we can win is a mutual cross-kill. Now, if the remaining mason claims (something I think is a good idea anyway, particularly if the breadcrumbs are convincing, because we're sort of at LyLo and we can use any info we can get), it should be pretty clear who's scum, creating a Prisoner's Dilemma. This sort of hinges on the idea that it's obvious that I'm town.
- If we lynch town, we're in a Prisoner's Dilemma. Again, for this situation it would be good if the remaining mason claims, because this should ensure that both scum know who the other scum is.
- If we lynch scum, we're screwed. This hands the win to the other scum.

cdubs is scum

- If we No Lynch, the remaining scum NKs one of the remaining players and we're at LyLo tomorrow. This is a pretty good situation for us.
- If we lynch town, we lose.
- If we lynch scum, we win.

To summarise, if cdubs is going to get modkilled, No Lynch is a safe strategy, giving us a chance at winning regardless of cdubs's alignment. We then have a 50% chance at LyLo Day 4 and a 50% chance at a near-Prisoner's Dilemma. Lynching is a risky strategy, giving us a 50% chance of losing right away, a 25% chance at Prisoner's Dilemma and a 25% chance of winning.

On the basis of this, I think that, if it seriously looks like cdubs is going to get modkilled, a No Lynch might be best.

[evilsnail]

Wait. You're not the mason? I thought you were. That's why I've been defending you. I was trying to steer pressure away from you.

[evilsnail]

Yeah, I still think I was right yesterday (though I might have been a bit dickish about it, my apologies), but I agree that No Lynch is a safe strategy today. We can save the D2 discussion for MD, including why today is different.

[evilsnail]

Yeah, I agree that the mason should claim. I just had a gut feeling it was you.

[evilsnail]

As was probably already clear, I'm also not the mason. Shrinehme, why did you think The Tracker the mason?

[evilsnail]

Yeah, I agree that the mason should claim. I just had a gut feeling it was you.

I knew yawetag was the remaining mason, because there are some pretty clear breadcrumbs. There's the dana thing and another really obvious one. I only said this because I cottoned on to the fact that yawetag was trying to elicit a fake claim.

Shrinehme and The Tracker, I'd like you to reevaluate your suspicions now that you know yawetag is the last mason.

I think what we do now depends on cdubs. If cdubs posts, I think we should lynch The Tracker. If not, we should No Lynch.

[evilsnail]

Yeah, I know. He's in some newbie game. I don't understand why he's not posting. It doesn't make sense from any perspective.

[evilsnail]

Thanks!

[evilsnail]

Good. I had a whole post planned analysing cdubs's activity level and what it said about his alignment, but I'm not sure it's meaningful now.

We have three days before the deadline, so I'm going to upgrade to a vote. I'm pretty much sure The Tracker is scum anyway.

Vote: The Tracker

Still would like The Tracker and Shrinehme to post their thoughts now that yawetag has claimed.

[evilsnail]

Though I love votes on The Tracker, we should hold off hammering until cdubs has posted his thoughts.

[evilsnail]

I suppose so, though I hardly think we need extreme caution here.

Unvote

.

[evilsnail]

Yeah, I'm not sure I buy cdubs's story. Also, Shrinehme's post seem pretty pro-town so far and he was pretty well-positioned on both scum-wagons. So I'm thinking cdubs is our last scum.

[evilsnail]

I'm going to put my vote back on, so yawetag can hammer tomorrow. We need this lynch.

Vote: The Tracker

[evilsnail]

I can see where you're coming from, but I think you have to keep in mind that it's very easy to lie about activity and there's so much RL stuff that can interfere. It's a really unreliable indicator of alignment.

[evilsnail]

Deadline is today, so, yawetag, you need to hammer The Tracker at some point soon.

[evilsnail]

Fate! Awesome.

Re The Tracker: I was just convinced the dude was Flare's buddy on the basis of his hammer and, once I convince myself of something, it's hard to let go off. And Shrinehme and cdubs just didn't seem anywhere near as suspicious. Also, I was kinda expecting to get NKed after the CMAR lynch, but then dana and Reck were and both of them were explicitly suspicious of The Tracker towards the end of D2. So I had this theory that he chose to kill one of them because of that.

Anyway,

Vote: Shrinehme

.

[evilsnail]

*high-fives Fate*

I'm soooo glad we're getting a town win. This game deserves it. I would not have forgiven myself if my being wrong about The Tracker had cost us the game.

Re cdubs: It's an open setup, so the only thing that could have happened is cdubs not sending in an action. Unless he self-targetted or something.

[evilsnail]

Sweet sweet revenge for myself... I wonder if something like this has happened in another game before.

It has. Replacing back into a game in which you've died isn't that uncommon. It happened to me in World Summit Mafia. I was SK and got NKed, replaced back in as townie and helped lynch the last scum for the win.

Anyway. Good game! I liked the player cast, mostly. Would gladly play with you guys again [except mavsfan. o;]. Even Reckoner even though he frightens me.

It's a shame it was wrecked by modkills.

And by Cdubs not killing EvilSnail or Yawetag for me on Night 3 [grrrrrrr.]

I agree, I enjoyed this game a lot. And cdubs could have killed you too. Anyway, there was a poetic justice in cdubs not sending an NK. The NKs had really been terrible for town up until that point and cdubs's absence made him impossible to read. For the record, I was lying about thinking cdubs was the last scum on D3. I actually thought it was you, but I wanted to see what you'd do in the NK. I didn't occur to me that I could be wrong about The Tracker.

[evilsnail]

First off, before I make any post-game comments, I'd like to explain my sudden departure from the game.

As I was playing chat-based Mafia on another site, a message came across the chat stating evilsnail was the last scum. I asked the other player if they were evilsnail. They denied and stated who they were.

With this (now-known-incorrect) information, I immediately screen-printed the chat and PMed it to Papa Zito along with my recommendation to be taken out of the game. I expected a reply similar to "It doesn't matter -- the game is over," but instead received a "Thanks for the info. I'll let you know what will be done." I was surprised to see that both myself and evilsnail were still alive.

I feel I must apologize for the situation, but it wasn't my fault. In hindsight, I'm glad the chat occurred. I had decided that if I had lived to D4, I was lynching evilsnail -- even before the chat I received.

Wtf. That is bizarre. I think both you and Papa Zito handled it in exactly the right way, though. Thanks for that!

I was pretty relieved when Fate replaced you. I was expecting you to come after me D4. Why were you so suspicious of me?

I enjoyed this game a lot. We had a good collection of players (with the obvious exception of mavsfan and CMAR). I thought Shrinehme was great scum. I only started suspecting him very late D3 and only because I thought cdubs's lack of activity would have prevented him from NKing Night 2 (which I was wrong about, in retrospect).

Papa Zito, thanks for modding! I particularly appreciated all the flavour text. It must have been a lot of work.

[evilsnail]

Your first post:

/confirm as well. Just for your knowledge, I live in the US, but will probably post more at night, as that is when I'm active.

I have read over the thread already. I can understand the attack on DKU, but remember that there

are

three groups in this setup; it's possible she's a Mason who knows the identity of two other townies.

There was no doubt in my mind you were the last mason after I saw this.

Our argument on D2 on whether to lynch or not, then your complete turn-around on D3. Also, your idea of having the Mason claim D3 smelled of a way to narrow down options for that night.

The thing is, I still think I was absolutely right D2. I actually thought you were scum with CMAR after the lynch because of that argument. Right up until I started looking for mason breadcrumbs after the NKs were announced.