Open 188 - Tweed Mafia - Over!

[nhammen]

I am replacing Scott. Will read up as soon as I finish my modly duties for my game.

[nhammen]

P.S. Today is the first day I actually read the whole thread. Does anyone want to explain why my insanely anti-town behaviour hasn't warranted a single vote? At most I got a few slaps on the wrists from Yabba and Locke, but really...I mean, if I was anyone else in this game, I would probably be voting myself already out of policy (oh wait, I already did. Lol.) Just pointing out that it seems strange for there to be so much discussion about certain players, yet if I was scum (and wasn't acting like a jackass with my anti-townness) I would breeze through day 1 almost completely unnoticed.

WIFOM!

Deadline's in 3 days guys, we might want to come to a consensus on a lynch here.

Unvote: Vote: Lowell

Why him, rather than Suave or XScorp?

You have the same amount of votes.

I picked you because I am more suspicious of you.

Same amount after your vote. And you saying you are more suspicious of him is meaningless if you don't back this up with reasons. Looks like avoiding the question to me.

Scummiest players:
Zach
XScorp
Suave

unvote
vote Zach

I am willing to change to Suave at deadline.

[nhammen]

BTW a Zach Suave pairing looks likely from ISOing Zach. But that could just be buddying.

[nhammen]

BTW a Zach Suave pairing looks likely from ISOing Zach. But that could just be buddying.

Buddying from who?

Also if you had done an iso read, you would have found the reasons I am suspicious of Lowell. Did you conveniently ignore this and only look for things that fit your pet theory of a scum pairing? (Which you haven't actually elaborated on.)

Hmmm... OK, it wasn't you. I know I ISOed someone that was buddying to Suave. Well, nuts. Now I have to go back and re-ISO the 3 or 4 players I did...

Now for you and Lowell. You say that you are suspicious of Lowell for stating that meta attacks are scummy, but not attacking Suave, who is relying on meta attacks more than you were. Then, when Lowell attacks Suave, he is scummy for attacking Suave. So what is it?

[nhammen]

BTW, Lowell went up onto my scumlist after ISOing Zach and doing ctrl-f on Lowell. But I'd still like an answer to my question.

[nhammen]

@nhammen: Why do you think XScorpion is scummy? Why do you think MrSuave is scummy? Why do you list XScorp above MrSuave in your 'scummy' list, but only say that you're willing to move to MrSuave at deadline?

I'm suspicious of XScorp, because his arguments look like he is reaching. Trying to find, or create, something incriminating.

I'm willing to go with both, but there is not a wagon on XScorp currently. If one grew, I would be willing.

And I keep second guessing myself. I couldn't remember which players I ISOed, so I ISOed StrangerCoug, and his arguments looked like reaching too.

[nhammen]

I know I ISOed someone that was buddying to Suave. Well, nuts. Now I have to go back and re-ISO the 3 or 4 players I did.

I can't find it. This is what I get for not using any notes. It was only a few hours ago... I should remember.

[nhammen]

@nhammen: So now that I know why you think XScorp is scummy, what do you think of MrSuave?

If I'm remembering this correctly, he attacked someone for a meta that was not true. And then when asked about it, he dodged the questions.

Lynch zach or suave and I'll do better tomorrow.

Excuse me! Why not do better now? Maybe I should switch back to you...

[nhammen]

We need to agree on a lynch. I can go with Lowell.

unvote
vote Lowell

[nhammen]

hmmm... actually, the night kill could give us some info. Maybe a No Lynch is a good idea...

[nhammen]

BTW, self-deflection = scumtell... abrasiveness, no. Abrasiveness is a personality tell. Unless you have meta for the player, then it isn't a scumtell.

And I would personally prefer a zach lynch over a Lowell lynch. But I could provide the 5th vote on Lowell, which is why I changed my vote.

[nhammen]

Wouldn't it be better to think of the possible motives for yabbaguy's death first?

Ummm... from what I've seen, in games that scum know there is a power role, they go after people giving off PR tells first. Players that have the scumteam pegged or are so town they are practically confirmed are second. So, the question is whether or not the scum could plausibly have seen PR tells from yabbaguy, or any other player. I have never been able to spot PR tells, but I would guess that was the reason.

I tend to find that night-kill speculation just leads to WIFOM and nothing useful for town. If you want to discuss it, go ahead, but I'm still gonna put my vote back where it was. As for yabbaguy, I'm convinced that his death was as simple as him being seen by scum as the most pro-town player.

I have seen a game lost because scum were able to A) kill all of the players targeting them (after first killing the PRs) and B) convince the town not to speculate on NKs, even though a lot of the NKed players happened to have been suspicious of the same players. So I will never outright ignore possible reasons for an NK. This early in the game, scum were probably targeting for PR tells, so this gives not much information.
Just in case he was killed for some other reason, I will speculate here. (Note, this means nothing at this point, but may be turn out to be important later on) He may have been killed because he was suspicious of a member of the scumteam. He was suspicious of farside, SC, and zach to a lesser extent from ISOing him. So that gives a 1/3 chance of each of these players being scum... which is barely more than the 3/10 that all players have right now. And that is with ignoring any scumtells that come along. But as I said, he was probably killed for the purpose of hunting for PRs.

I'm much more interested in if there were any successful investigations (indicating scum).

If there are any, I'm sure they have their own ideas of how to handle them.

Any chance we should do some sort of mass copclaim situation? Can we use two cops to our advantage here or what?

All I have heard about hypoclaim is arguments against it.

[nhammen]

XScorp: Quit that WIFOM. There is no scum reason and there is no town reason for what you are doing. STOP

After rereading, I still find real information hard to come by. But I did see one thing. Farside, why do you insist on commenting more on theory questions than try to find scum. Someone else accused you of this earlier (I don't remember who) and the entire hypocop conversation has been you showing the theory of it, while saying it is a bad idea. What about the person proposing it? Do you have any reads on lowell at all?

I'm too tired right now to post more, but I am back, so yeah.

[nhammen]

Well, that is a lot of activity since I was gone. I think I've caught up, and I was just lynched in my other game, so I should be more active now.

So, about farside: I agree that he has been somewhat scummy, but I don't agree with some of the arguments presented here. I have seen too many quickhammers recently to believe that claiming at L-1 is scummy in itself. I can see some of his play as Cop. As for the rest of his play, I'm going to ISO him, post my conclusions, and then get some sleep. Maybe I should start coming to MS in the mornings instead of right before bed...

[nhammen]

I can believe everything about farside's play as Cop except for possibly his choice of targets. Then again, I have only once not believed a Cop claim, and that one time was because he claimed a neutral result, so...

Farside, is there a recent game you played as Cop that we could look at to compare? Did you breadcrumb anywhere? Do you usually breadcrumb as power-roles, or usually not? Could you show us examples of these too?

[nhammen]

Kitty, it isn't just one post either:

Well she clears me so I'm game. I'll believe it.

So the obviously solution is to TENTATIVELY clear both farside and myself, at least unless something else happens to make that not seem true.

No scum fakeclaiming cop outs their own scumbuddy, so the theory that I'm scum is retarded, EVEN IF farside is lying about her role.

He seems to be going to a lot of effort to make sure everyone knows he should be seen as innocent. Scum doth protest too much?

[nhammen]

Lowell, MrSuave, and nhammen - why didn't you vote Farside yesterday?

Because actually believed his claim could be possible... Not too bright.

Why do you seem to know for a fact whether or not the tailor is still alive?

Um, because farside was a goon?

Lowell, read the setup again. Carefully, since you obviously missed important parts of the setup.

Rereading farside to see if there are any partner tells coming from him.
Rereading jazz to see if there was any breadcrumbing from her (although a first glance shows that she went after farside pretty thoroughly yesterday).

[nhammen]

Did she replace in before or after night 1? She might not have had a chance to investigate anyone...

[nhammen]

Apparently jazz replaced in DURING night 1 and the mod extended the deadline for her. Hmm... So, at least we know that she got an investigation in.

Farside was buddying up to Kitty all Day 1. However, Kitty then uses this as evidence against farside. Would scum point this out so readily? Then there is the serious WIFOM from his "investigation" of Lowell. Both of these give a high amount of WIFOM. I'm pretty sure that one of these two would probably be scum.

It looks to me like Jazz investigated farside... she had no town reads at all, so she did not get a town result. And she started off voting farside, which means if she got a scum result it was on farside.

[nhammen]

what about chainsaw defense?

[nhammen]

Buddying and Chainsaw defense are two clearly different things.

Which do you think Farside was doing in regards to Kittymo, nhammen?

Both. Kittymo also said he was doing both:

Looking back on Day 1, farside pretty much chainsaw-defended and buddied me all day

I'm assuming now that everyone who voted Farside is town.

So what is your reasoning for thinking that scum absolutely did not bus farside?

This means we have:
nhammen
Starbuck
Suave
Lowell
As the potential scum. I've marked out Lowell as the obvious choice for #2, leaving nhammen Starbuck and Suave. Of the three, nhammen seems the most townish to me, Starbuck hasn't done anything yet, so if I had to make a wild stab I would point the finger at Suave.
So, @all three:

If

one of the three of you is scum, who is it?

LL/Starbuck's slot hasn't posted enough info for me to have any kind of read. Suave has appeared scummy on Day 1, and he was one of many players (including myself) that lurked through Day 2. Given a slight scumread on Suave and no read on Starbuck, I would say Suave is more likely to be scum. But really, there is not enough info on either player.

[nhammen]

It's highly unlikely scum bussed farside to L-1, given that I don't see why he was worth bussing over obv. scum Lowell.

Hmmm... if Lowell is scum, then he could be the tailor. That could explain why scum would bus farside over Lowell. Other than that possibility, I agree with you.

I decided to look back at the vote counts of Day 1 for a bit.

• It seems that both farside and Lowell were on the Suave wagon for most of Day 1. If Lowell is scum, this probably wasn't bussing (there were the 2nd and 3rd votes), so Suave would be town.
  
• Both our dead townies were on Zach at the end of the day. Zach's possibility of being scum just rose slightly.
  
• I put the possibility of a Zach Lowell scumpair at approximately 0.000001. There are just so many reasons they aren't scum with each other it's not even funny.

Hmmm... Lowell flipping scum would practically confirm a few players as town.

[nhammen]

@kitty- when I consider the scummiest actions the bandwagon on me after farside's death, then unfortunately OMGUS is what I'm left with.

What other scummy actions have you noticed?

Suave's "softclaim" doesn't mean anything to me. VT is the default, we're all implicity claiming VT by not claiming otherwise. I actually find 583 otherwise townish, though.

Why are you saying this? What reason is there at all to say this?

584 is as off has kitty's other posts. The tone of her response to me makes me think she

knows

I'm town.

How so?

On nhammen

Jumps in the game and automatically names Zach, X and MrSuave as scummiest.

Why? Do you have any cases on them?

At this point nhammen is still very quiet.

I believe I was asked this already, and I answered already. My answers are in the first 10 posts of my ISO. There wasn't very much good discussion from Day 1, so this was what I had to work with.

On nhammen

Wow, this guy is barely ever around.

But his defense of Farside worries me...

So, about farside: I agree that he has been somewhat scummy, but I don't agree with some of the arguments presented here. I have seen too many quickhammers recently to believe that claiming at L-1 is scummy in itself. I can see some of his play as Cop. As for the rest of his play, I'm going to ISO him, post my conclusions, and then get some sleep. Maybe I should start coming to MS in the mornings instead of right before bed...

What about this worries you, other than that it is a defense of a player that flipped scum? Or is that it?

Also, is that everything from your read of Day 2?

[nhammen]

But I do have a question for you, Kitty left a pretty blatant list at the end of the day that yabba was not on. Do you think this implicates her at all?

The one with the bottom part of her scumlist? I don't see why her thinking he is town makes her scum...seems a stretch to me.

I agree with this. I don't know of anyone that did not think yabba was town... Where were you going with this Starbuck?

[nhammen]

Lowell, where are you? I want participation from you! This almost looks like you are trying to lurk so as to get the spotlight off of you.

On nhammen

Wow, this guy is barely ever around.

But his defense of Farside worries me...

So, about farside: I agree that he has been somewhat scummy, but I don't agree with some of the arguments presented here. I have seen too many quickhammers recently to believe that claiming at L-1 is scummy in itself. I can see some of his play as Cop. As for the rest of his play, I'm going to ISO him, post my conclusions, and then get some sleep. Maybe I should start coming to MS in the mornings instead of right before bed...

What about this worries you, other than that it is a defense of a player that flipped scum? Or is that it?

Never answered this. Also, why did you mention how I'm never around when Suave lurked through Day 2 just as bad? Is there a reason you are ignoring her?

[nhammen]

Lowell seems pretty scummy, but I have this sinking feeling I'm missing something here, about who the scum is. I am starting to doubt whether I really believe a wagon pushed this hard could have a scum flip. That is main thing making me uncomfortable here.

Same. I find Lowell very scummy, and have been tempted to L-1 him every time I have logged in since he got those votes on him. But where is the scum's counter-wagon? Is this a bus? But all 3 on Lowell were also on farside. So, why would scum bus both of their buddies? Doesn't make sense. If Lowell is scum, there are very few possible scumpartners.

[nhammen]

For the record, your deliberate misuse of pronouns bothers me. You kept calling Farside "him" when she has the female symbol under her name and you are doing the same thing by calling MrSuave "her". That's why the gender is there. Just a reminder.

Oops... And I always try to be good about that...

I'm not ignoring Suave. If you noticed,in my first catch up post I said the following about HIM.

On MrSuave

He seems to just be adding a lot of fluff to the thread rather than actual scumhunting. I'm just trying to get through the thread right now, but

I'm going to be doing an iso on him later on.

He seems a bit to crazed about Nikanor though.

Right now, I've been just trying to get through reading and then I will be going back to do iso's as needed.

The above quote is also right above where I wrote about you. So why would you go out of your way to allude that I'm ignoring him?

Yeah, but that was your Day 1 catchup post, and you never mentioned him in your Day 2 catchup post. I was just wondering why that was...

Let's get on Lowell or KittyMo please, preferably Lowell. I would not like another No Lynch.

You have barely been suspicious of kitty at all... Where did this come from? In fact, the only other time that you have mentioned kitty at all today is:

A quick KittyMo ISO gives me the impression that she hasn't attacked Lowell really heavily, if it doesn't confirm it. While I will entertain the possibility that she could be scum, I don't think she's scum with Lowell. Something about KittyMo bussing Lowell isn't ringing.

Well then, what is scumkitty's motivation for avoiding attacking townLowell? At that point, enough of the town was pursuing a Lowell lynch, that scum could get away with it without taking scumpoints. Why not do this?

Nevermind, I misread the roles. I thought it was two cops and two mafia, in which case the last mafia will just tailor him/herself every day. It's not, it's three. Carry on.

I'm having a hard time seeing Lowell scum after reading this again. (If Lowell is scum, he knows there's 3 scum regardless of how badly he misreads the roles or setup.)

He could be faking... and preview shows that nik made the same argument.

@nhammen- kitty tried to steer a lynch away from me while simultaneously saying how scummy I am. That's what makes me think she just didn't want to be caught on the "wrong" wagon.

Hey, I was just about to ask you to answer those questions. Preview saves the day! Although you still didn't answer the questions the way I would have liked, but oh well. I can't expect people to read my mind. So you think that scumkitty is not attacking you so as to gain town-cred. What response to her 584 other than "makes me think she knows I'm town" do you have? Such as a response to the argument she presented?

And on the note of kitty's 584,

And look at farside's interaction with ME and tell me she was not doing the exact thing you're accusing me of doing to you.

Ummm... the main thing I remember between farside and you was farside buddying to you and attacking players that attacked you on Day 1. So, how is this similar to the situation between you and Lowell?


ARG! people! I keep having to respond to more while writing this! OK. I'll post this now, and see if there is any interesting content to respond to.

[nhammen]

Hmmm... I'd like a response from Zach as well: why is your vote on SC?

[nhammen]

A quick KittyMo ISO gives me the impression that she hasn't attacked Lowell really heavily, if it doesn't confirm it. While I will entertain the possibility that she could be scum, I don't think she's scum with Lowell. Something about KittyMo bussing Lowell isn't ringing.

Well then, what is scumkitty's motivation for avoiding attacking townLowell? At that point, enough of the town was pursuing a Lowell lynch, that scum could get away with it without taking scumpoints. Why not do this?

I think the answer is very simple—she could want us to think that someone other than Lowell-town is scum; therefore, she would be avoiding what she might perceive as an easy mislynch. I'm more confident in Lowell-scum than KittyMo-scum, however, therefore my stating my preference for which one.

Ummm... what? Why would scum want us to think someone else is scum if Lowell's town? I don't get your argument.

On nhammen

Lowell flipping scum would practically confirm a few players as town.

I'm uncomfortable with you assuming this.

Yeah, I can see why that could end up being a bad assumption, but there are a lot of players that I don't see as being partners with both farside and Lowell.

So the red flags look more like scumbuddies, you mean? I was thinking the 'Lowell lynch is just as good as Suave lynch' was fencesitting in case she needed/wanted to flip back to Lowell, but I guess it does make even better sense for it to be scumbuddies.

That is a plausible possibility I have started to think about. I have also considered the possibility that she's distancing from the Lowell lynch because she knows he'll flip town.

OK, do you think kitty or Lowell is more likely to be scum, because this looks like you are saying one thing and voting another.

I have also considered the possibility that she's distancing from the Lowell lynch because she knows he'll flip town.

In that case, why would she say that Lowell is just as good a lynch? It's slightly WIFOMic, but it doesn't make sense for her to be scum distancing from a townLowell lynch with her vote on Suave.

I agree, which is why SC and Lowell's accusations against kitty don't seem right to me.


Also:
Lowell, claim.

[nhammen]

Make your last words quick.

I wish he would.

Why does no one have anything to ask me? If I was scum it would be gg for town right now :/
Either kill Lowell already or at least pressure me, I'm getting bored.

OK, this isn't the first time you have decided to add WIFOM to the discussion by mentioning the "what if I were scum" factor. Why do this?
And since you want questions: you have on multiple occasions stated that you don't believe farside was bussed. How much will Lowell's flip affect this belief?

Let's keep in mind that the day ends Wednesday and we need a hammer for a lynch by then, otherwise there won't be a lynch.

Oh, don't worry about that. I will hammer him. He just keeps saying that he has more info to give, so I am willing to wait. It really looks like he is trying to stall though, hoping that someone else will draw attention. The only reason I haven't hammered yet is that I don't see any harm in letting the day last just a bit longer and having that bit more discussion.

Okay I'm a convert. Scorpion, Zach, and especially SC are all town. More thoughts coming.

Why did it take you that long to post that little information? Why don't you post these "more thoughts" now instead of later?

[nhammen]

well... there goes my theory... But there's still a tailor out there. For all we know we may have killed scum and we wouldn't know,

Ummm... What? How do you know there's still a tailor? What do you mean by"we may have killed scum and we wouldn't know"? Explain.

ISOing Zach to see if he breadcrumbed anything.

[nhammen]

Well, on Day 3 Lowell started the day wth a Lowell vote. In fact, the only player that Zach really pushed hard for was Lowell. But, on day 2, he mentioned that Lowell was a "likely tailor target regardless of alignment" so I think he probably wouldn't investigate him. I don't know that he didn't investigate Lowell for sure though.

If my assumption is correct, it seems to me that he probably got town results on both nights. On Day 2 he says:

I don't really like the attacks on Xscorpion.

I'm trying to be careful not to overly excuse his general bad play, but I have a gut town read on him, and I feel pretty strongly about it, as a result I feel uneasy about pretty much any attacks on him.

Which lead me to believe that he was bread-crumbing his investigation results as gut. But on Day 3 he says:

Also I'm trying to zero in on a third scum, but one isn't really screaming out at me at the moment.

My gut's saying either Suave or SC.

I think Nikanor, Kittymo, and Xscorpion are town.

Might have this narrowed down enough in my mind to be comfortable lynching everyone else.

Which kills the gut=investgation theory. The "might have this narrowed down enough" comment would support my idea that he got town results each time (if it was a breadcrumb), but it also implies he had 3 town results. But there had only been two nights. So, I have no idea whether or not he breadcrumbed any results or what they are. Hmmm... Unless

Mod, did the cops get an investigation on Night 0?

[nhammen]

Prodding nhammen. This will be the last prod before he will be forced replaced.

I think I do need to be replaced.

I am working on a project that must be completed by March 3rd, and I thought I could devote time to both that and this game, but I have been unable to do so. I should have realized much earlier that I could not do this. I apologize for taking so long to ask to be replaced out.