Mini 901: Real Time Mafia (Over)

[manho]

/confirm

Lynching and voting.

1. The town may lynch every 7 days or later.
2. At the end of 7 days, the last player to receive a majority will be lynched.
3. There are no unvotes, but you may vote "no lynch." If a majority are voting for "no lynch" at the end of 7 days, no one is lynched, even if someone else previously had the majority. No one is lynched until someone has a majority.

we can lynch only one person in every 7 days. so we need to make sure someone has the majority votes for some time before the 7 days period end.

vote: snow bunny

for being the only one i've played with before.

[manho]

it seems that i've played with juls and vaya also.

[manho]

unvote, vote borge

.
purely OMGUS.

[manho]

so what is a policy lynch? and why CSL is a good policy lynch?

[manho]

that's mean CSL like hammering himself. and i'm fine with people hammering themselves.

[manho]

Vote: DRK

[manho]

is a random lynch better than a no lynch?

if random lynch is better, then we should get someone over the lynching criteria first.

[manho]

but if a "default lynch" cannot be developed naturally, should we get an artificial one?

[manho]

12 Alive

Snow Bunny ( 0 )
DeathRowKitty ( 3 ) manho Vaya TonyMontana
bigmc109 ( 0 )
Vaya ( 2 ) Juls Ellibereth
Ellibereth ( 3 ) Snow Bunny Plumegranate bigmc109
malpascp ( 0 )
Plumegranate ( 0 )
Juls ( 0 )
Bogre ( 0 )
manho ( 1 ) Annachie
TonyMontana ( 0 )
Annachie ( 1 ) DeathRowKitty
No Lynch ( 2 ) malpascp Bogre
Total Votes ( 12 )

With 12 alive, 7 needed to lynch.
Next Lynch Available at: January 9th 00:00 EST
Lynch Will Be: No Lynch

so we agree to get someone lynched when deadline come, let's resume our scum-hunting.

i think elli is innocent for starting the bandwagon, and DRK is scum for supporting it.

[manho]

i think annachie is right that DRK was trying to make his push of CSL's lynch seem like joking, but i think it was serious.

[manho]

My main worry, as I think I said earlier in the thread, that if there had been a rushed default lynch set up, it would prevent a real lynch from occuring and that the default lynch's flip would have provided little to no evidence.

i think that's the reason why some of us are pushing for a really quick policy default lynch so that we can have the rest of the day discussing the real lynch.

[manho]

2 days to deadline, and 2 votes on DRK to have a default lynch.

[manho]

i don't think the neighbour revealing would give us anything valuable. the neighbour has the same probability to be scum as everyone has. unless DRK flip scum, the neighbour will very likely be town. it would be stupid for the 2 neighbour be the same scum team.

[manho]

really don't know what's going on here. too many on-going games. really need some time to read the thread.

[manho]

busy with the new semester, will read the thread and post more when i get through this first week.

[manho]

In other news...
Manho is quickly creeping up my scumlist due to the empty promises. Last time I saw someone have so many "will post later" posts was Jebus in my Dexter game...guess what, he was scum.

2 only, and this will be the third one with "will post later". i thought i have a game before with much more "will post later" posts, and i was town then. don't have the time to search for it.

will post later when i've got the time.

[manho]

V/LA until 17/1, may have a chance to post before the deadline.

[manho]

9 Alive

Snow Bunny ( 0 )
DeathRowKitty ( 0 )
don_johnson ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
Flareonage ( 2 ) Snow Bunny Fishythefish
Plumegranate ( 0 )
Juls ( 0 )
farside22 ( 0 )
manho ( 1 ) Juls
Fishythefish ( 4 ) Ellibereth don_johnson farside22 Flareonage
No Lynch ( 2 ) manho Plumegranate
Total Votes ( 9 )

With 9 alive, 5 needed to lynch.
Next Lynch Available at: January 23th 00:01 EST
Lynch Will Be: No Lynch

back from V/LA, but it's 3am now. will be here posting tomorrow morning.

[manho]

why is Flare still alive? he is the scum.

Interesting turn of events. Elli suggesting makes me think she is town but at the same time she could be doing that to make us think she is town. Then there's the buddying she's been doing with me and telling everyone that I'm town

It also goes to show that Snow Bunny has a possibility of being scum. Mafia roleblocker comes to mind because it's similar to Town Jailkeeper. Of course if she flips scum then we don't know if she was telling the truth about targeting plum or just trying to confuse us more. Now I'm tempted to lynch Snow Bunny to see if her claim and her claiming that Plum was her target were just a trick

Elli claimed for nothing and forced Fishy to also claim for nothing. That's pretty scummy if you ask me. Elli could be a mafia watcher and saw that Fishy had a target and claimed Gunsmith. It's in the wiki so that means it wouldn't be hard to make up that role. Add the fact that Gunsmith or Flavor Cop is not on the list of roles provided by the mod. I know the mod also said roles could be based on that list but I think Elli forced Fishy to claim because he is in fact a mafia watcher.

Unvote

VOTE: Ellibereth

How's that for being a sheep, SB?

that's 2 times he asked for a claimed-powerrole lynch. and he has something like:

I guess it won't kill me

VOTE: Deathrowkitty

is the "I guess it won't kill me" too obvious for scum?

vote: Flare

[manho]

manho – I treat the lurking as a nulltell. And there is little else.
@manho: why is asking for the lynch of a claimed PR a scummy thing to do?

reason for TOWN to ask for a lynch of a claimed pr:
1. he think that the pr is fake claimed
2. can anyone think of another reason??
cost: the town may loss a pr.

reason for SCUM to ask for a lynch of a claimed pr:
1. get rid of the town-pr
2. bussing the fake-claiming scum-buddy
3. get rid of a fake-claiming third party
cost: no direct cost except for the 2nd case.

it is clear that scum has a much higher incentive to get the claimed PR lynched, so it is a scum tell.

[manho]

it's right for elli to not answering that.

[manho]

IIRC there were only a few hours/minutes left when Ann counterwagon started.
Assuming Ann is town, the scum know that both DRK and Ann are town.
If they switch over to Ann, and the lynch doesn't happen, they win, DRK dies.
If they switch over to Ann, and Ann is eventual lynched, they win. Ann dies, and they can settup DRK and myself to take the blame for the mislynch.
Of course, the second hold some risk as they would be on the Ann mislynch wagon, but the probability the switch was going to happen didn't look to high, and they use the oppurtunity to look they're going off a townie lynch wagon.

At least that's how I see it. Am I missing something?

really can't understand what you mean here.

Manho, have you ever played as scum?

not in this site yet, but have played for several times in mathlinks.

[manho]

Also, the lack of NK makes me think Snow jailed scum.

maybe snow jailed the person scum was killing.

[manho]

fishy was voted mainly based on an investigation result, and his claim saved himself. but you are voted because you are scummy. that's different.

[manho]

Elli was killed less than 2 hours right after SB claim his jail keeping action end.

i really think SB is the scum here trying to look townie.

need to reread SB to have a better decision.

[manho]

i don't know why, but SB's iso smells scummy, maybe it's the gut feeling.

[manho]

SB's action-claiming post is approximately 10 days after the first kill, and i think she didn't include the 10th day after the first kill in the time duration of her action. except that the duration of her power is really short, i can't find a reason not including that day.

@SB, why don't you include the 10th day after the first kill in the time duration of your action?

[manho]

is it lylo now? it is likely that we have 3 scums, and with a maximum recharge time 10 days for a scum kill, they can kill 1 before we have 2 lynches, so scum can win unless we lynch right, the next scum kill is blocked, or we have a vig killing a scum.

maybe we need a mass roleclaim, right?

[manho]

Why must I tell you of everything I think?

I don't understand at all manho's 636.

the first kill is 10 days after the start, so it is reasonable to predict the second kill would be around 10 day after the start, that's 22/1, but you claim your action end in 22/1. so why not covering the 22/1 for a better chance to block the kill?

[manho]

I'm sorry I'm confused a bit. SB your ability does not kick in as soon as you PM the mod?
Fishy do you have this same delay?

No, you're getting it wrong. My ability kicks in as soon as I PM the mod, but it last for some days before wearing off. I'm saying the same thing could happen to the scum kill.

if this is so, the kill will be really really hard to be protected. you need a time interval of the scum kill completely belong to the time interval of the protection in order to protect a kill. i don't think the mod would make the scum kill so strong.

[manho]

and it makes SB's claim not that convincing, so it makes SB more scummy.

[manho]

SB looks more town now, but still couldn't understand her last action.

seriously, should we have a mass role claim as it is lylo now?

[manho]

The mechanics of this game are such that we don't need to worry about voting in lylo. In fact, I can easily see a mad scramble to get a lynch at the end happening, which would be bad.

There is one thing to be cautious about; having votes around near deadline, if you can't get on to change them.

I'd still like you to answer why you think ani and SB are scum, and what if anything is the connection between them.

You seem to have gone dramatically into quiet mode just in time for lylo day, which stinks of scum trying to coast to victory.

who are you talking about? is it ani?

and regarding the mechanics, we should always vote someone, imo.

SB was the scummiest before, but need to read a bit to decide who to vote for.

[manho]

Right, access is going to be a bit spotty until deadline. I'll be able to get on and vote and stuff, though. Players in the game:

farside: town
manho: probable town
Juls: no read to speak of. Wasn't comfortable with his play around the manho wagon. Needs to get his reads out there asap after his V/LA.
ani: didn't have much of a read on p-fruit. I'm not sure I quite believe ani's case. Leaning scum
dj: Not comfortable with the change in his play at this important stage.
SB: most likely scum
Of the scummy players, the two who correlate well are ani and SB - ani's attack on dj came as SB was coming under pressure, and they've been ignoring both the wagons on each other and the cases they each made. I'm happy with lynching SB at the moment.

i have a similar scum list with fishy probably town, except that SB is more likely pro-town than ani now, but still, they are my top 2 suspect and i'm happy with both lynch.

vote: ani

@ani, do you think SB is scum? and the reason?
@SB, do you think ani is scum? and the reason?

[manho]

sorry farside, but i didn't think it was a mystery that i've lost interest. ani seems to think this is some sort of scumtell. tbh, i would need to reread in order to find a firm list. ani's behavior, though, seems like obvscum at this point. its like if a 700 pound alligator walked into the room. wouldn't you find it odd if he attempted to take credit for "discovering" it? i'll try to get back here before deadline with more analysis, but

vote: animorph

i think its a safe bet.

i have a feeling that dj is a scum trying to direct the lynch from him. but maybe he really find ani suspicious.

[manho]

we should lynch ani or SB today, and agree with fishy for the unvoting part.

@fishy, will you take the lead and switch to the ani lynch?

[manho]

Vote: SB

, i'm happy with both lynches as i think both are scum.

[manho]

@Juls, and where is your analysis

[manho]

I'm going to reread everything today and have a breakdown of all players.
I'm really busy today but I'm withholding my vote and looking for anything that shows scum pairing.

DJ right now I'm most suspicious of you, fish and manho. I point to you the most right now because you haven't done a case and seem to just follow people the last few lynches.


mahno: Who do you think is scum and why?

DJ and Juls for now. they both came out quickly after the lynch, voting ani. seem like scum trying to settle on another mislynch quickly.

[manho]

I'm going to reread everything today and have a breakdown of all players.
I'm really busy today but I'm withholding my vote and looking for anything that shows scum pairing.

DJ right now I'm most suspicious of you, fish and manho. I point to you the most right now because you haven't done a case and seem to just follow people the last few lynches.


mahno: Who do you think is scum and why?

DJ and Juls for now. they both came out quickly after the lynch, voting

fishy

. seem like scum trying to settle on another mislynch quickly.

fixed. and the reason is still valid.

[manho]

fish/ani/juls

well done guys.

vote: fish

i think you mean you also find juls scummy here. what's the reason behind?

[manho]

i've tracked 2 scums...

i tracked Juls, and she was targetting DJ. and the following it my deduction:
Juls won't be a town tracker as I'm the tracker.
she won't be a town doctor as I really don't see the reason scum will kill him.
she won't be a town watcher as I don't see him being targetted at all.
she won't be a town jailkeeper or gun-smith as we have a claimed one.
so, i narrow the possible choice to scum-framer and scum-doctor.

i was looking for a right timing to ask for Juls's claim, better just after a scum kill. but the V/LA from Juls screw the timing.

i tracked farside lately, from 31/1 to 2/2.
@mod, who made the last kill and did I track it?

[manho]

really didn't think fishy is scum. the claim is so great.