Mini 892 - Mayor Mafia (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #15 (isolation #0) » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:30 am

Post by Socrates »

Hoopla wrote:
I will post in the thread (which can be found HERE) and send all players a pm when the game starts. The start of the game will be at least 72 hours after I have sent out the rolepms. If I need to replace people pre-game, the start of the game will be later.
I really think it isn't a brilliant idea to talk too much about mayor choices, set-up discussion, or anything that could be alignment telling until this 72 hour window is closed. Scum will most likely be able to talk during this period, and I don't want to give them three days worth of day-talking and planning if this game psuedo-begins now.

I encourage everyone to post sparingly or chat about non-game related things. But lets not talk about the game until we actually begin.
I guess a Counterpoint would be that the scum won't have had a chance to fully coordinate how they are going to handle the election and waiting to discuss that would eliminate such a window, and they will be fully ready when we do start discussing. Oh well, I don't care too much.

In other news, I was looking at my moniter from a funny angle and just realized that the background to Hoopla's avatar is purple, not black.
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Post Post #60 (isolation #1) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:03 am

Post by Socrates »

I am going to say this once, and then I will probably say it a few more times after someone calls me scummy for it, but there is no pro-town reason to not try and win the Mayoral election. The members of the town only have one way to guarentee that the mayor will be used in a pro-town fashion, and that is by getting themselves elected.

Anyone deliberately not wanting the position is avoiding the spotlight and the scrutiny it brings or attacking someone for campaigning for themselves will get the stink eye from me.

support Myself
I don't have the street cred to get elected, but I am going to give it the old college try. C'mon people, I've got fire! I already have a town read and a scum read! I am here to play! Vote for me!

[campaign] If elected Mayor, I swear to only be mildly incompetent, wait until my last year in office to have a drug scandal, and to think very very hard about not sleeping with my secretary [/campaign]
Charter wrote: Pretty sure he's scum after his blanket suspicion statement. Probably the first time I've ever caught a scumbag before day one.
Damnit, I was going to say that.
vote:MonkeyMan
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Post Post #62 (isolation #2) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:12 am

Post by Socrates »

SerialClergyman wrote:*slap*

Why not discuss what we're doing with the mayor and what the best qualities are rather than go into a pretty unnecessary RVS?

I'm thinking good qualities would be:

a) Active
b) Easy to read
c) Good scumhunter
d) Good townhunter
e) Convincing.

To be honest, I have a) down pat. b) and e) I'm certainly not and c) and d) are variable and late-game centric at best, so I'd consider myself pretty mediocre as mayor. I was only half kidding in what I wrote to charter - I doubt one extra vote will be what I need to lynch scum.

Anyone else thinking of mayoral qualities/candidates?
There are two possible lines of thought that I have: give it to the best player you can find, or give it to someone who will crack under pressure. In other words, I think b) and c) are the most important, especially for day 1. It is also important that we make sure no one tries to let the mayor suck up all of the town's attention and fade into the background, so personally I want a mayor who is willing to attack lurkers.
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Post Post #65 (isolation #3) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:22 am

Post by Socrates »

Col.Cathart wrote:
vote: Reckoner


I don't trust anyone who supports himself for the mayor.

support: Hoopla


I think, with her plans and logic, she's a good candidate.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #4) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 9:52 am

Post by Socrates »

Saint, don't make me give you the stink eye.

Why don't you like that I nominated myself, and what problems do you have with me saying it is pro-town for a member of the town to try and become mayor?
I wrote: There are two possible lines of thought that I have: give it to the best player you can find, or give it to someone who will crack under pressure. In other words, I think b) and c) are the most important, especially for day 1. It is also important that we make sure no one tries to let the mayor suck up all of the town's attention and fade into the background, so personally I want a mayor who is willing to attack lurkers.
I would just like to clarify that I think by far the most important thing is to ensure that a townie gets it. If I had to choose between an extremely good player that I am unsure of and a weak player that I have a sure read of, I would pick the weak player every time (barring players that are actively anti-town).

This post was brought to by the Socrates For Mayor Assosiation. He's got fire!
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Post Post #70 (isolation #5) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 9:54 am

Post by Socrates »

I screwed up my campaign slogan :(
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Post Post #76 (isolation #6) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:24 pm

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SerialClergyman wrote:The problem with Socrates' theory of all town should want to be mayor is good except that if we all sat here with supports on ourselves noone would get elected.

My list of 5 criteria were totally made up on the spot by the way - if anyone can think or different ones give us all a shout, I've never played with this mechanic before.

Monkeyman is not coming with the pressure of an early wagon at all. How experienced are you, Monkey?

Support Hoopla
Well, players would obviously need to keep realistic expectations about their chances of being elected.

I will also reiterate that I think the most important thing to do is ensure that town gets elected, so I must ask: Do you have reason to think that Hoopla is town? Why her and not yourself when there are multiple people that want you as mayor?

~This post was brought to you by the Socrates For Mayor Assosiation. He's got fire!
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Post Post #77 (isolation #7) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:28 pm

Post by Socrates »

MonkeyMan576 wrote:
SerialClergyman wrote:The problem with Socrates' theory of all town should want to be mayor is good except that if we all sat here with supports on ourselves noone would get elected.

My list of 5 criteria were totally made up on the spot by the way - if anyone can think or different ones give us all a shout, I've never played with this mechanic before.

Monkeyman is not coming with the pressure of an early wagon at all. How experienced are you, Monkey?

Support Hoopla
I'm fairly experienced. I've played in a lot of games anyway.

I'm not exactly sure what "proper action" would be at this point, considering there is four votes on me and no case.
Defend your position or accept that you have acted scummy. Your first post contains a scummy and unjustified generalization and blanket statement that flies in the face of what (I think) optimal pro-town behavior should be.
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Post Post #103 (isolation #8) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 6:06 pm

Post by Socrates »

Town reads: Charter, Moi

current suspicion: SerialClergyman, Monkey.

SC's reasoning to jump on the monkeywagon was underwhelming to me.

I have yet to sees a post by Monkey that makes me think he is town.

I wonder what Hoopla will say when she see all this support she has. The way she has built up so much support without even being present is sending off alarm bells in my head.
SerialClergyman wrote: I've been somewhat negative about calls for supporting myself because although I am definitely town I feel there would be better options. I disagree that any player who is defeinitely town is better than a goodp layer who is likely town. If the double vote is tunnelled on a bad case we're going to have real trouble lynching elsewhere, for example. But I gave my own assessment of my own playstyle and it's suitability to be mayor above.

The argument reminds me of getting lynched - if you were at L-1, you could argue that even if you were vanilla you should claim cop with a guilty on someone else in the town because any lynch is better than yoruself, a confirmed townie. But it doesn't play out that way in practicality, sometimes even though you are only sure about yourself, the team's success is bigger than the mistake they are about to make.
Do you even know how much power this role has in the hands of scum, SC? We lose out on an ENTIRE day! Not to mention the extra ability for scum to throw their weight around and direct exactly what lynches will happen where. I would DEFINITELY rather this role be wasted on a tunneling townie than give it to a possible scumbag.
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Post Post #105 (isolation #9) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 6:09 pm

Post by Socrates »

EBWOP: I also want to hear a response from Saint to the questions I levied at him and my stink eye on Cathart still stands.
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Post Post #107 (isolation #10) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 6:15 pm

Post by Socrates »

BTW: I hate the way people are dismissing the suspicion on Monkey as "Charter tunneling". My gods people its page 5! Its like, the first wagon of the entire game! Sure, the case isn't full proof but there is nothing wrong with pushing such a stance aggressively in my view.
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Post Post #110 (isolation #11) » Wed Dec 02, 2009 6:23 pm

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The problem is scum are likely to say exactly this if they see a townie tunneling on another townie. Then it wastes a day AND directs attention towards the tunneling player. Personally, Serial is looking ALOT more townie than you are.


How does it waste an entire day in the hands of a bad townie? I was talking about how they are a whole vote closer to holding majority and the game will end one day sooner. This isn't kingmaker, and if the mayor obviously isn't on the right track we can still lynch the old fashioned way.

Isn't it common knowledge how much more powerful a scum doublevoter is than a town doublevoter?

Mayor in the hands of scum: very bad

Mayor in the hands of negligent town: not good, but doesn't nearly put the town in as bad a posiotn.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #12) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:55 pm

Post by Socrates »


Socrates - I refer you back to my 'your own death is worse than any other death' point. If you die and you're town, the town definitely lose a day. So does it justify doing anythign to lynch someone else? No. Any player we pick to be mayor will most likely be town. 11/12 of people, regardless of how much they try to get themselves elected, will end up with a mayor they don't know is town. I think your point is much more shallow than it appears.
Well, barring extreme circumstances I don't think a townie should ever take his own lynch lying down. Doing something demonstratably anti-town in order to do so is bad play, yes, but I wasn't advocating a townie lie or do something that would probably help the scum just to get elected.

The problem, SC, is that your are construing my position "All townies should attempt to become Mayor if they can help it" to "All townies should attempt to become mayor at the cost of all else." Which is not what I am saying at all.

I must ask, how do you feel about self-preservation votes?

Oh well. I am ready to drop this. The point is this: I want to be mayor, and it is not scummy for me to say so, contrary to what multiple players in this game have said.

Re: Hoopla's theory: I don't really see much of an issue with it. My only trepidation with it is that we are putting the decision in the hands of someone a majority of us would agree is very likely scum. That either means we are putting the decision to either scum or a player who isn't playing very well. I don't know.

One other problem: We lose all of those juicy connections we could go back and look at later in the game if we don't elect the old fashioned way. Right now we essentially have two lanes of people forming connections with each other (votes to lynch and votes to become mayor).
SaintKerrigan wrote:
Socrates wrote:Why don't you like that I nominated myself, and what problems do you have with me saying it is pro-town for a member of the town to try and become mayor?
It's more related to my feeling that people that nominate themselves shouldn't get the role. But since a lot of people are doing it, I might have to reconsider that stance. I also don't recall myself stating that I had any problems with a member of the town trying to become the mayor. I'm not sure how you inferred that.
Ummmm, how are townies supposed to actively try and become mayor without nominating themselves? Also, you haven't explained why it is Bad for a player to sell themselves anyway.

You are doing what monkey and cathart were doing. Throwing a blanket suspicion on people for doing an action with no real justification for why it is bad.

Hmmmm... Kyle hasn't posted yet (I think?).

DDD, how do you feel about Monkey, the people on his wagon, and MIC, who jumped off the wagon?
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Post Post #150 (isolation #13) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 6:12 pm

Post by Socrates »

Hoopla wrote:
Socrates wrote:Re: Hoopla's theory: I don't really see much of an issue with it. My only trepidation with it is that we are putting the decision in the hands of someone a majority of us would agree is very likely scum. That either means we are putting the decision to either scum or a player who isn't playing very well. I don't know.

One other problem: We lose all of those juicy connections we could go back and look at later in the game if we don't elect the old fashioned way. Right now we essentially have two lanes of people forming connections with each other (votes to lynch and votes to become mayor).
We don't lose that many connections - the only one we're eliminating is the mayor lane on D1. Regardless, I think quite a few players may find it difficult spotting scum influence on mayor wagons. It is many times more fraught with WIFOM and guess games (especially on D1), as there is less importance on the outcome of the wagon than a regular lynching wagon. The stances scum could take to the mayor wagons seem highly variable. I don't even know how I'd pick off scum from mayor wagons, as it's the opposite of a normal wagon which is where everyone has honed their radars.

But it is a double-edged sword - becoming mayor will come with heavy scrutiny. I can imagine some scum players may feel the extra power of a vote might not be worth the attention, especially early in the game.
Eh, I actually had a very clear idea of how I was going to go about looking for scum based on how the Mayoral election went down going into today. I don't want to go into what those tells are yet mind you, but I do have them. But yea, there is no prior experience to fall back on when it comes to dealing with this, and I don't have any data or anything to actually back up my thinking.

Have there been any kingmaker games in mafia scum's history that involved directly electing the king? I wouldn't know where to look.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this, I am just trying to judge your plan correctly.
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Post Post #154 (isolation #14) » Thu Dec 03, 2009 6:56 pm

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Monkey wrote:My opinion that recommending yourself for mayor is suspicious is just my personal opinion. I would be willing to consider a campaigning player if there is ample support from other players. My point is that campaigning for mayor before you are nominated by someone else isn't a tell per se, but to me it seems self serving. Scum could do it and town could do it, but it would be more dangerous in the hands of scum. I would be more likely to trust someone that was nominated by someone else. It's like if someone is being attacks and campaigns for their own pro-towniness, it is less effective if they are the only one's doing the defending, rather than if there are other players making a valid defence of a player being attacked.
I had lots of responses to this at once.

My first is: none of this actually argues why scum would be more inclined to do this action, or why townies shouldn't do it.

My second is: This attitude is preying on (or falling prey to) two things 1) a central dislike/distrust of people who want to lead: "This guy is asking for my trust, he MUST have ulterior motives." and 2) the impulse to think of the guy highlighting his qualifications as arrogant. This is why nobody trusts politicians even though a signifigant portion of them aren't corrupt
. It is comforting to look at somebody acting all humble and modest and think "that guy isn't trying to mislead me, I should trust him. and he isn't an arrogant jerk who only talks about how awsome he is." Even though this ignores that modesty isn't proof of qualification for a position, and modesty is easy to fake.

My third is: that point about a defense coming from someone other than the accused is really bad. You should judge the logic and the facts, not where it is coming from to determine if the points are valid.

My fourth is: if you are genuine, scum would have such an easy time manipulating you it isn't even funny.

I guess what I am saying is that your argument is a complicated form of AtE and you are being too irrational Monkey.
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Post Post #172 (isolation #15) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 10:07 am

Post by Socrates »

I just want to ram my head through my monitor right now.
MonkeyMan576 wrote:It actually does. You just aren't taking the time to look at my argument.
No, monkey I read your argument completely. It just has no substance to back up what you are saying. I am not going to go line by line in that paragraph and point out how they don't support your case.
Monkeyman wrote:Mafia isn't a game where you are supposed to trust everone. Trust is earned through your actions, it's not pro-town behavior to trust everyone at the beginning of the game.
Both town AND scum want you to think of them as town. I am going to say this one more time, and I will not repeat it again.
wanting you to trust a person is not indicative of that person's alignment
.
Monkeyman wrote:Looking at statements alone and not in game relationships is pretty dumb.
And dismissing a point based purely on who said it is REALLY dumb.
Monkeyman wrote:
Socrates wrote:My fourth is: if you are genuine, scum would have such an easy time manipulating you it isn't even funny.
I don't see how.
Scum A: "Hey guys, watch me be all modest and shit."
Scum B: "man, that guy is such a good player, I support player A"
Scum C: "Yea, like, A is soooo cool. Lets all support him."

You: "Man, that guy is both modest and is getting support from other players, clearly he is best qualified to be mayor."

--

Okay, I need to take a moment and re-evaluate my read of MonkeyMan again, because I am worried that I am letting myself vote him for being stupid.
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Post Post #173 (isolation #16) » Fri Dec 04, 2009 10:22 am

Post by Socrates »

Rec's vote on me makes me go :?. I'll respond later. I want to sleep.

Posts 170 and 171 are :goodposting:.
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Post Post #255 (isolation #17) » Sun Dec 06, 2009 11:52 am

Post by Socrates »

im here. My computer has been on the fritz. I think I am Ok right now though.

I'm not sure how to respond to Monkey's claim. On the one hand, the idea of Monkey living to the endgame is completely laughable and if he is telling the truth it would be nice to get at least 1 investigation out of him. On the other, I am worried about being led astray by a fakeclaim, and letting someone I think is scum live seems like bad strategy...

I don't know. I want Monkey to die eventually, but does it have to be today?

Nhammen's response to Monkey's claim is similar to how it went down in my head. I don't think his indecision is scummy at all.

I think there is some stuff I need to respond to. I'll do that tonight.

If I had to move my vote, im not sure who I would vote quite yet. I have multiple town reads, but I have few strong scum reads right now.

I am going to look more closely at SC, RECKONER, MIC, and Kyle.

@Kyle: QUICK, off the top your head and without looking back at previous pages, what do you feel about SerialClergyman and MIC?

@Hoopla: What do you feel about the fact that you got 4 support votes for mayor when the only game post you had was a reasonless vote on Kyle?
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Post Post #258 (isolation #18) » Sun Dec 06, 2009 12:23 pm

Post by Socrates »

kyle99 wrote:
Socrates wrote:@Kyle: QUICK, off the top your head and without looking back at previous pages, what do you feel about SerialClergyman and MIC?
Serial seems like a clueless townie, and MIC seems scummy.
SC: What do you mean by clueless? Are you finding yourself disagreeing with much of his arguments? if so, why do you get town from that?

MIC: How strong is this scum read? Would you be willing to lynch him instead of Monkey today?
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Post Post #281 (isolation #19) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 9:35 am

Post by Socrates »

Responding to SC's problem with me because I put it off.
SerialClergyman wrote:This looks to me like the goal of the entire bit of play. I don't have much problem with the statement itself, it's the grandiose nature of what he's said that makes me somewhat suspicious.
It is roughly equally important to get mayor for scum and town. Thus both scum and town have a reason to try to get themselves elected to the position.

However if scum refuses the mayorship, then the chances that the mayor will go to their team are greatly lessened. If a town member refuses the mayor role, the chances remain high it will end up in the hands of a townie.
This is my first problem with your logic. 1) scum know exactly who their buddies are. They can easily play the "I don't want to be mayor" card while still pushing scum for mayor. 2) You are assuming that the mayor role is chosen completely at random, which is so obviously not the case I am mildly frustrated that you would argue that.
SC wrote:So on the face of it, before WIFOM is introduced, it looks to me like scum would be more likely to want it than to not.
I actually disagree completely. My first thought going into this game was that the scums were going to try to throw shit on anybody that tried to sell themselves, and most of them would try to generally to prey upon people's general paranoia (see my second point in post 154). Also, scum could feasibly be inclined to avoid the mayor position at first for the same reason they lurk: they don't want to attract attention to themselves. I know this is WIFOM and I don't have a meta to prove it yet, but if I was scum I would not push myself for mayor nearly as hard as I am.
SC wrote:Now, I accept that there is town motivation to want it as well, which is why the action is not scummy. But to call people not wanting the mayorship scummy, when in fact it hurts scum more than town to be in this position, is a bizarre argument that takes a fair bit of WIFOM to even approach. (Scum want to be seen to do things that hurt scum so they refuse the mayorship to be seen to be more town).
First, its less the people that don't want to become mayor are scummy, and more the people who attack people that DO want to become mayor are scummy, and that I extremely encourage townies to campaign for themselves.

Second, where do you get that not becoming mayor hurts the scum more than it hurts the town? I thought I have already explained numerous times how much it hurts the town if scum become mayor, not to mention that scum can NK the mayor quite easily, while getting a scum out of mayordom would take an organized lynch from almost the entire town. If an even halfway competent scum becomes mayor, lynching him will be an uphill battle at best.
SC wrote:As such, I think I'm coming ot the opinion that I don't want Socrates to be mayor. He's just made too big a deal out of his proposition. I dont' necessarily think he's scum, but he has me uneasy because of it.
Let me ask you a question. Say I AM town, see that both Monkey and Cathart have pushed what I think is a scummy agenda, and I do want to be mayor. What exactly to you expect me to do? I can understand thinking that I am scum and had all of this pre-planned out, but do you think I wouldn't do as I am doing as town?
SC wrote:Finally - what's with ignoring the meta you have on me Socrates? You know exactly how I play and you've seen me deliberately take a lynch because I thought it was the best thing for my team. You know that I have a heavy team-first attitude, so why ask me?
I am fully aware of your meta. I never said I was suspicious of you for nominating Hoopla for mayor, and I can fully see you doing it as town. I still think it is suboptimal play in this instance though, and if you are town I want to convince you to behave optimally.

I am sick of talking theory. Maybe we can just agree to disagree for now SC and continue this debate another time? I am not getting anything about your alignment from this.

Ok, now to post something that is actually productive.
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Post Post #283 (isolation #20) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:37 am

Post by Socrates »

Ive been thinking about connections and whatnot and it is truely driving me crazy.

I am going to post my notes and if anybody has any questions I will answer them.

Right now I can be reasonably comfortable saying that if monkey is indeed scum, there are about five players that probably aren't his buddy.

Me
Charter
Kyle
DDD
MIC

2 of these names might confuse you.

for MIC, a scum would never say this about his scumbuddy:
MIC wrote: No, I said Nhammen and Charter AND opportunists, suggesting that you two lie out of the 'opportunists' category. I intentially stuck those comments near lines that I know people (especially you, Charter and opportunists) are gonna want to bash me for. See right above. I acknowledge that it's horrible logic, but I really am tempted to want to lynch Monkey in this situation. Some likely scenarios: He flips scum, all good, someone can vig me tonight or something. He flips town, scum can nightkill me, you can all start scumhunting for real.
Sure, call it WIFOM all you like, but MIC really and truely thinks Monkey is town, whether that is because he is scum defending town or because he just really trusts his read on him. He most certainly is not defending a buddy.

Kyle I will get to in a minute.

--

I would be surprised if these people are his scumbuddy, but it isn't nearly as strong a read:

SaintKerrigan
RECKONER

These reads are based on how monkey chose to attack them, plus the timing of saint's vote. I concede that RECK could be a buddy of Monkey and he was just distancing, but Monkey doesn't seem the type to distance right out of the gate.

That leaves only a few people I can reasonably see as his scumbuddies:

Hoopla
SerialClergyman
Col. Cathart
nhammen

and all 4 of them voted monkey. I don't think all of the other scums bussed him and I have mild town reads on nhammen, and after reviewing SC I don't see much that jumps out at me other than his flimsy jump on the Monkey wagon.

It is seriously wierding me out how every single player in the game other than MIC and maybe REC has attacked monkey in some round about way, and I have reason the belive that MIC wouldn't be his scum buddy. Combine that with Monkey's general meta and the utility of letting him live a day and I am starting to get cold feet about lynching him.

So who in the world SHOULD I vote?

Kyle's vote on monkey is timed just so perfectly to read to me as scum trying to get a power role lynch. He doesn't say anything for the entirety of the wagon building, but jumps on after Monkey claims cop. I don't know, but I can say with much certainty that kyle and Monkey are not scum buddies. A bus just doesn't make sense here. His answers to my questions were pretty consistent with what I expected a scumKyle to say, weak town read on SC, decent but not strong scum read on MIC, and a desire to keep his vote on the claimed power role.

Also, remember those 4 support votes Hoopla got that I keep bringing up? I will go on record and say there is absolutely no chance that all 4 of those votes came from town. (ESPECIALLY if hoopla is scum) I want everyone to remember this for posterity when we get some alignment flips. Who would I pick as the worst support out of that bunch? You guessed it: Kyle.

My reads on other players are generally inconclusive:

Charter is town.
nhammen is probably town.

SC I am neutral on.
Hoopla hasn't posted enough.
I could see a scum RECK.
I am not ready to pursue a MIC lynch at this time.

Cathart started the game in a way consistent with how I expected scum to start (as previously discussed). After I called him out on it he backed down from it and has generally been pretty low key for most of the game. I could get behind a wagon on him at the least.

Saint- Hasn't posted enough. Did what Cathart did. I am not quite sure what to make of how he jumped on the Monkey wagon. I don't agree with MIC's case on him though. Maybe some other time.

unvote, vote:Kyle


Sorry for two wall of texts in a row.
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Post Post #284 (isolation #21) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:42 am

Post by Socrates »

EBWOP:

Oops, I forgot DDD: Neutral. I haven't had a problem with any of his posts, but none of them seem like they wouldn't necessarily come from scum.
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Post Post #311 (isolation #22) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:00 pm

Post by Socrates »

Hey. Serial. Why don't you say something about Kyle?

I think Kyle is a better lynch than DDD, by the way.
Hoopla wrote:I don't think this point is as relative and poignant as you'd like to think. These supports were based on reputation - they're the equivalent of voting to policy-lynch someone with anti-town meta before they've posted. They are not relevent to this game specifically - and I could see a make-up of 3/2/1 or even 0 scum on that wagon because they weren't comprised of any actual cases. But you're welcome to guess if you have better insight than me.
That fact that the entirety of the reasoning for the support was based on your reputation only makes me more confident of my opinion.
Kyle wrote:So you think that monkeys claim of cop is legit? Because claiming cop on day one is almost always a bad thing to do, especially without a known doctor. Monkey being scum is the only logical reason I can think of claiming cop, besides the option of monkey being a bad player, which I don't think. If monkey is actually the cop, then he's almost guarenteed to be lynched tonight, which wouldn't be good for the town. Thus, I think monkey being scum is the only logical reason for claiming cop.
What do you think cops should do if they are wagoned to a claim? Lie about their role?

And saying that he shouldn't have claimed yet wont fly with me. Monkey is the type of player who will see that he is at L-1 and claim without considering the context of the situation.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #23) » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:28 pm

Post by Socrates »

Hoopla wrote:
Socrates wrote:
Hoopla wrote:I don't think this point is as relative and poignant as you'd like to think. These supports were based on reputation - they're the equivalent of voting to policy-lynch someone with anti-town meta before they've posted. They are not relevent to this game specifically - and I could see a make-up of 3/2/1 or even 0 scum on that wagon because they weren't comprised of any actual cases. But you're welcome to guess if you have better insight than me.
That fact that the entirety of the reasoning for the support was based on your reputation only makes me more confident of my opinion.
That I'm scum, and other scum are trying to elect me?
No, you don't have to be scum. If you ARE scum, I don't see myself backing down from this position for the rest of the game though.
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Post Post #341 (isolation #24) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 3:19 pm

Post by Socrates »

Just so you guys know, it is currently finals week for me. I just spent this whole day studying for, getting pumped about, and failing my calculus III final. I am in a terrible mood.

So ya, I won't be posting much during the day for the rest of this week.
Hoopla wrote:So, you don't think town would want to elect someone based on reputation?
I think it should be fairly obvious that I think that is a terrible reason to want someone to be mayor.

Its also a shallow and easy to manufacture reason that a scum wouldn't expect to get much flack for. Much easier than coming up with a plausible town read and a nuanced justification for support.

--

I want Kyle to respond to my last post.

After the last night, I wouldn't be averse to a Hoopla wagon.

How does everyone feel about Col. Cathart?
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Post Post #343 (isolation #25) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 4:40 pm

Post by Socrates »

Sorry, I meant my last post directed at you. 311.
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Post Post #348 (isolation #26) » Tue Dec 08, 2009 5:14 pm

Post by Socrates »

SerialClergyman wrote:Socrates - if you're up for a Hoopla wagon, get it done.. where's your slow to appear vote?
I'm not quite ready to move off of Kyle yet. Patience is a virtue.

Hoopla, earlier you said you would be okay with Kyle, what changed since then?
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Post Post #400 (isolation #27) » Wed Dec 09, 2009 7:29 pm

Post by Socrates »

Antiprod. Kyle is giving me the cold shoulder. :( I'm wondering if he is hoping that I will just go away if he keeps quiet long enough.

Earlier I endorsed the Hoopla wagon, but right now I am getting the sense that Hoopla's wagon is based on one of those things that townies do all the time but it gets called scummy anyway. In this case, its apathy and a low confidence. (See Serial's comments about fire and whatnot). It seems to me that generally, outside of players with an explicit scum meta of this sort of thing, passion and confidence has more of a direct correlation with a players interest and investment in a game, not their alignment.

Her case on charter is admittedly pretty bad, but I can also see it as a desperate bid from a townie who is getting harassed for her activity to say something, anything, even if it isn't that thought out.

That doesn't make Hoopla town in any fashion, but this isn't grounds that I am willing to follow through with a lynch for.

Okay, I am done playing the Hoopla apologist.

Hoopla, I would love to hear your thoughts on Kyle, RECKONER, and Col. Cathart. Also, what is, in your opinion, the single scummiest post in this game?

Well this turned into more than an antiprod, but whatever. Really sleepy. Post tomorrow maybe?
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Post Post #422 (isolation #28) » Thu Dec 10, 2009 6:57 pm

Post by Socrates »

Kyle, I want you to respond to this:
Socrates wrote:
Kyle wrote:So you think that monkeys claim of cop is legit? Because claiming cop on day one is almost always a bad thing to do, especially without a known doctor. Monkey being scum is the only logical reason I can think of claiming cop, besides the option of monkey being a bad player, which I don't think. If monkey is actually the cop, then he's almost guarenteed to be lynched tonight, which wouldn't be good for the town. Thus, I think monkey being scum is the only logical reason for claiming cop.
What do you think cops should do if they are wagoned to a claim? Lie about their role?

And saying that he shouldn't have claimed yet wont fly with me. Monkey is the type of player who will see that he is at L-1 and claim without considering the context of the situation.
Your hop on Monkey looks sooooo much like scum justification to jump on a power role. Please, flesh out your thought process in order to convince me that it is genuine.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #29) » Thu Dec 10, 2009 7:07 pm

Post by Socrates »

That isn't your argument at all. In the paragraph
that I just quoted
you claimed that his claim was a really bad move for a cop to make so you have to conclude that he must be scum fakeclaiming. You were using Monkey's claim itself to justify your vote right there.
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Post Post #426 (isolation #30) » Thu Dec 10, 2009 7:42 pm

Post by Socrates »

kyle99 wrote:
Socrates wrote:That isn't your argument at all. In the paragraph
that I just quoted
you claimed that his claim was a really bad move for a cop to make so you have to conclude that he must be scum fakeclaiming. You were using Monkey's claim itself to justify your vote right there.
No, I said there was no good reason for him to claim cop unless he was scum, hence the vote for him.
Um, yea, thats EXACTLY what I said you were doing, and I am saying it is scummy as all hell.

Answer my question Kyle. Pray tell, what SHOULD a cop have done in his situation?
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Post Post #440 (isolation #31) » Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:28 pm

Post by Socrates »

Anti-prod FTW!
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Post Post #451 (isolation #32) » Fri Dec 11, 2009 8:01 pm

Post by Socrates »

*Sigh*

What is with it with newbies and their absolute hatred of claiming? Its like they heard somewhere that knowing power roles helps scum and decided that they should never claim, ever, and anybody who does is probably scum.

Someone really needs to write a good detailed article about the logic and timing of roleclaiming and post it on the wiki so that new players can be pointed towards it. Does such a thing already exist? It would really cut down on this kind of thing and make it easier to pick out scum using this terrible logic.

The next step here is to do a thorough meta of Kyle to see if this is the kind of stance he would plausibly take as town. If, in other games, I find that Kyle has a thorough grasp of claiming mechanics and that he isn't apt to take such weird stances, I will be parking my vote here for the rest of the day. If I find that this is consistent with townKyle play, then I will consider letting him live, for now.

Also, now that finals are over and I have more time, I plan to do a scum meta of SerialClergyman, because I have only seen his town play while looking around the site.

I also need to do more meta-ing of Monkey, and he knows why.
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Post Post #452 (isolation #33) » Fri Dec 11, 2009 8:05 pm

Post by Socrates »

Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
kyle99 wrote:Just saying that Hoopla and Monkey are at L2 and Socrates is at M1.
What a useful post, I mean it wasn't like there was a vote count posted just a few posts ago or anything that anyone could clearly read. Tell me Kyle, are you afraid of posting much because I'll compare your play here with the newbie game we just got out of?
Well, this is interesting. Can you link to this game? What is your interpretation of Kyle so far?
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Post Post #481 (isolation #34) » Sat Dec 12, 2009 8:52 pm

Post by Socrates »

Gah. the meta on Kyle wasn't as conclusive as I had hoped. The sample size to build a meta on is just too small. The only completed game he has is one as scum where he replaced in late in the day and was caught extremely quickly.

God I wish he had a game where he is confirmed town I could look at.

The biggest impression on him that I got is that, yes, he is the type to drop extremely transparent scum tells as scum, and if we catch a buddy it will be pretty easy to determine his alignment.

The problem is that, to me, the post I voted him for IS an extremely transparent scum tell.

Note: I do NOT want him to live until endgame.

Gah again.

Okay here is the breakdown to me:

I don't think the case on Hoopla is that compelling (as previously stated) and lynching Hoopla will be as good as lynching randomly.
I think Kyle has a slightly higher than random chance of being scum at this point. But a wagon seems to refuse to form on him...
I think Monkey has a higher than random chance of being scum at this point, but there is potential use from him living a little longer.

I want to give one last go on trying to push a Kyle lynch before I give up.

Nhammen, Can you get behind a Kyle lynch? Why Hoopla over Kyle? What do you think about the take on the Hoopla wagon that I gave earlier?

MIC, If you were scum and you were getting a lot of crap for V/LA problems, how would you have reacted? If town? How about if you were off a wagon when the person being wagoned claimed a power role? How would you expect newbscum to react in such a situation?

SerialClergyman, Lets go beyond the actual reasoning for Kyle's jump on the Monkey wagon for a moment. Scum can and always will try to look for valid reasoning for their jumps. Do you disagree that the
timing
of his vote is abysmal? How about how non-commital he was about it?

SaintKerrigan, You have twice asked Reckoner why Kyle is scummy, but you have neither asked me why nor have you presented your own perspective on his play.

Monkey, you are voting Hoopla out of self preservation. Do you actually believe that she is scummier than Kyle?

Charter and DDD, What would it take for you to vote Kyle over Monkey?

Hoopla, Kyle starts out supporting the biggest support wagon (you), then move his support onto the new biggest support wagon (me) while simultaneously voting for the biggest lynch wagon after that slot had claimed power role (and a powerful one at that). More likely scum or town moves?

Col. Cathart, I am running out of new perspectives on this. It seems the reason you are not on the kyle wagon is because you cannot fathom Monkey being town. :?

Reck, feel like helping to push the Kyle wagon with more than just saying that he is the right lynch?

----

@Monkey: Could you be ever so kind as to link me to a game where you were a town power role?
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Post Post #499 (isolation #35) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:21 pm

Post by Socrates »

I don't have enough time right now to respond to everyone's responses to my post, so I will get to that tomorrow. (I think Hoopla, Monkey, and Saint are the ones who have yet to respond to the question I levied at them.)

I will say this though:
Charter wrote:nhammen, letting Monkeyman live to "find out if we have a roleblocker" is such a horrible idea. If I was a town roleblocker, I would be blocking him in a heartbeat. If Monkeyman is scum, he's probably sending in the kill then be like "oh, I investigated the dead guy, what a shame" which, quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if we see tomorrow anyway.
I don't see myself letting monkey live past day 2, in all honesty. Something dramatic like a second player claiming cop with an innocent on Monkey or something tomorrow is about the only way to resolve the problem of Monkey with him still being alive. If he comes in with an investigative result on the NK target, then we lynch him on the spot, IMHO.
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Post Post #503 (isolation #36) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:45 pm

Post by Socrates »

MonkeyMan576 wrote:What happens if the person I investigate ends up dead? What should I do? Lie? Decline to report it? Resign to being lynched?

I'm not doubting Socrates is town, but I am doubting weather he should be mayor.


Unsupport: Socrates
If a cop is investigating people that are likely NK targets they R DOIN IT RONG.
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Post Post #504 (isolation #37) » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:47 pm

Post by Socrates »

And Monkey, if you are a cop, and you do investigate the NK, and then you lie about it, I swear to god I will push a policy lynch on you in every game we play together from then on and never let up no matter how obviously town you are.
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Post Post #544 (isolation #38) » Mon Dec 14, 2009 7:09 pm

Post by Socrates »

Charter, I am seriously considering moving my vote back onto monkey, I am honestly unsure of where to go since my Kyle wagon seems to be going nowhere.

Just as a shot in the dark without much to back it up, if Kyle flips scum, my first guess for one of his buddies would be Kerrigan, just based on the way he has been acting these last few pages.

I need to think a little more about the recent pages.
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Post Post #554 (isolation #39) » Mon Dec 14, 2009 11:25 pm

Post by Socrates »

Well... you know... the swingin single's life is starting to wear on me a bit...
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Post Post #561 (isolation #40) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:01 pm

Post by Socrates »

SerialClergyman wrote:Acceptance speech please.
Okay.

---

Thank you, thank you, good citizens of our fair city*! It humbles me greatly that you would look to me** for guidance in this time of fear and danger. There is much for me to do in order to help bring stability*** back, but together, I think we can work together to bring about such a happy future very soon****!

*suckers
**of all people
***stability to my wallet
****So you better start bribing me soon

---

I'll get a more serious post up in a bit.
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Post Post #562 (isolation #41) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:02 pm

Post by Socrates »

NOBODY HAMMER UNTIL I GIVE THE GO AHEAD. I AM NOT READY TO END THE DAY YET.
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Post Post #564 (isolation #42) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:08 pm

Post by Socrates »

SaintKerrigan wrote:Oh god, he's already drunk with power...
I still have a lot to say and ending the day before people have finished getting their thoughts out is anti town. This is especially important for the mayor role as it will undoubtedly be an occupation with a high death rate. Going forward, the town should always make sure that the mayor puts out as complete and detailed a post wrapping up their perspective on the game before going to night.
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Post Post #565 (isolation #43) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 3:11 pm

Post by Socrates »

Responses to people's reactions to my questions:
Moai Interceptor Cannons wrote:
MIC,

I'm here!

If you were scum and you were getting a lot of crap for V/LA problems, how would you have reacted?

I would point out that what they are accusing me for is ridiculous. I would then write a reasonable townie-looking catch up post, pointing out scummy things other town players have done but with a bit of distancing here and there on my scumbuddies as well (only if they have done anything scummy, otherwise no mention).
Then depending on how suspicious my scumbuddies are, I will either join the most popular non-scum wagon* or bus one of my scumbuddies who is under heavy fire.
If people continue to push that my attitude during limited access is scummy, I will ask them to clarify what exactly about my play was scummy and defend myself to the best of my ability (if the case is valid), or start acting like Danny (if the case is ridiculous).

* Unless said wagon is a claimed power role or has some other special circumstance that might discourage me from joining the wagon.
In this case I might join the next popular non-scum wagon, but usually there isn't one popular enough in which case I'll just make the most logical looking vote on a non-scum person.
The bolded parts, I think, are the most important observations about typical scum strategy in this situation. There were plenty of easy targets that a scum hoopla who was merely concerned with plausible scum reads could attack and try to start a wagon on. Off the top of my head, she could have attacked Kyle, Monkey, Saint, and Reck without looking too terrible. A coursery glance through the thread would have told her that pretty much every single player in this game has a town read on Charter, (even those he had attacked relentlessly) and to attack him would be a foolhardy plan at best.

So, let it be established that attacking in the way she chose to do would be terrible scum strategy. Then, let is also be established that those reads must not have been very well thought out regardless of her alignment.

Why does this make her more likely scum?
Moai Interceptor Cannons wrote:
How about if you were off a wagon when the person being wagoned claimed a power role?

Well this is the case with me in this game (Monkey's wagon). I was not in support of the Monkey wagon in the first place, and you can read of my reactions in this game if you want the practical answer. Basically I wouldn't really comment on it at all (as was the case here) unless people start acting like Kyle and saying stuff like 'he claimed cop, so he must be scum', in which case I would write a really huge wall post detailing the ridiculous stance that the town is taking and do my best to whack some common sense into them. I haven't really used his claim to justify why he shouldn't be lynched either, because I don't believe that way of thinking is correct (I campaigned to lynch a claimed doctor in my last game). The important thing to look at would be the reactions to the claim I think. Unless you're asking if I was scum?
I should have been more specific. If you were scum, and a wagon happened that you have yet to take a side on went to a claim and that person claimed power, what would you do?
MIC wrote:
How would you expect newbscum to react in such a situation?

I don't have an answer to this question TBH. I don't know.
An honest answer that I can understand. How about just on a gut level though? Would you be more surprised to see newbscum avoid a claimed power role like the plague, or to try and push such a wagon over the edge? (I need to double check, but I am pretty sure Kyle's vote was the first response to monkey's claim.)

---
SerialClergyman wrote:The timing was after a claim which kyle has insisted was the reason for the vote. it's at least consistent.

I don't know - don't expect me to defend him, i just think a newbie lycnh is a wasted lynch - he's too likely ot just be bad/unconventional, in my opinion. I genuinely think Hoopla is liklier to be scum.
I meant more the timing of Kyle's posting in general. He lurked through the ENTIRE formation of the monkey wagon, and it wasn't until
after
Monkey's claim the he says that he is suspicious of Monkey and that he thinks he is the right lynch.

This is a game with high activity requirements and he still manages to do the classic lurk lurk lurk => hop on the biggest bandwagon.

---
Col.Cathart wrote:
Socrates wrote:Col. Cathart, I am running out of new perspectives on this. It seems the reason you are not on the kyle wagon is because you cannot fathom Monkey being town. :?
Because I cannot. I said already, if MM lynch will be impossible, I'll vote for someone from other my other suspect (Reck, Kyle, Hoopla), but as long, as there's still a chance to lynch Monkey, I'll stick with this vote. I don't remember any other player who would tilt my scumdar so much in any game on this site so far. Seriously.
How thorough is your meta on Monkeyman? Have you played with him before?

---

Charter and DDD, fair enough. The question was more to gauge whether it would even be possible for me to convince you to move off of Monkey for today.

---

Hoopla hasn't responded to the question I asked her. Monkey hasn't either.

---
SaintKerrigan wrote:As for my opinion on Kyle...my general impression of him has been newb town so far, but it's been awhile since I've felt fully on top of this game, so that might not be an accurate read. I still owe everyone a reread, and once it's done, I'll post my thoughts.
Thats interesting. Lots of players have expressed decidedly neutral and unsure reads on Kyle, but you are the first person pretty much all game to explicitly state a town read on Kyle. Please, give your reasons for this.

My next post will detail my perspective on each of the major cases and what I think they say about alignments.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #44) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 4:38 pm

Post by Socrates »

I personally like it when a new alternative wagon appears, as I think the way people respond to those is a very concrete way to establish connections between players.

DISCLAIMER: RAMPANT SPECULATION BASED ON DAY 1 READS AHEAD, FOLLOW AT ONES OWN RISK.

Here's what I expect:

If Kyle is town, scum would not have much reason to cling to a bus vote and any scum that are bussing would hop over. As such, the fact that almost nobody did is indicative to me that if kyle IS town, and one of {Hoopla, Monkey} is scum, then most of the scum are very probably currently located on the other's wagon. This means that if one of them flips scum, it IS town points for those on that wagon

Two bonus observations: This means that Nhammen did exactly what I expected a scum that was bussing would do. This observation fails to account for Reck. He would need to be read independently.

Kyle and Hoopla can possibly be scum buddies. Nothing dramatic pulling one way or the other. Kyle has said nothing about Hoopla at all except for his early support on her, and Hoopla played neutral on him.

Monkey and Kyle probably wouldn't be buddies based on the way kyle voted for him.

Hoopla could have originally been bussing Monkey and she is currently voting him out of self preservation, so her pressure on Monkey is not an associative tell one way or the other.

If both Kyle and Hoopla are scum, I expect the ENTIRE scum team to be on the monkey wagon. (In other words, if there are 3 scum, then I expect the third scum to also be voting Monkey right now.)

If Kyle is scum:

- scum would NOT bus him here, so RECK and Nhammen would be town.
- Take a good hard look at SaintKerrigan.
- Monkey is likely town.

If Monkey is scum:

I detailed this before. My picks for reasonable buddies would be found in {RECK, Saint, SC, Hoopla, Col. Cathart, and Nhammen) With anti-buddy points for RECK and Saint. Pro-buddy points would be added to SerialClergyman because of how he jumped off of the Monkey wagon.

If Hoopla is scum, SC is town, and visa-versa.

If RECK is scum, Kyle is town.

Col. Cathart: Has managed to not make any defining associative tells during the course of the day. The way he has clung to his Monkey vote in the face of multiple other wagons IS notable, but his vote on monkey is well within bus range, so it isn't definitive. He hasn't been strong on anything else. I guess his intense dislike of RECK's play could count, but he never pushed it very hard.

Putting this all together, here are my picks on scum groups:

for Kyle, buddies from most likely to least likely (factoring personal reads):

Saint
{Col. Cathart, Hoopla, MIC, SC}
DDD
Charter
Monkeyman
Nhammen
RECKONER

For Monkey:

{SerialClergyman, Nhammen, Hoopla}
{Col. Cathart, RECKONER, SaintKerrigan}
MIC
DDD
Kyle
Charter

For Hoopla:

Nhammen
DDD
{RECKONER, SaintKerrigan, Col. Cathart, Kyle, Monkey}
MIC
Charter
SerialClergyman

Now, this is tentative as hell, and a lot of these thoughts are independant of each other, so I had a hard time tieing them together. Please point out any inconsistencies that you see.
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Post Post #572 (isolation #45) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 4:45 pm

Post by Socrates »

EBWOP:

I also forgot a 4th scenario, all 3 are town. Let me get that up.
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Post Post #574 (isolation #46) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 4:46 pm

Post by Socrates »

SerialClergyman wrote:For the most part that's an excellent post. Be careful to judge individual probabiliies when you haev more information, because when you've done all this work there's a habit of just using it as a lookup table when some reads are more solid than others.

The only thing I'd question personally is this:
If Hoopla is scum, SC is town,
and visa-versa.
Why am I scum if Hoopla is town? Or did you mean more likely to be scum?

Personally, I feel it's more likely I'm scum if monkey is scum than if Hoopla is town.
I mean that if you are scum, then Hoopla is town.
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Post Post #578 (isolation #47) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 5:14 pm

Post by Socrates »

If all three wagons are on town players, then I expect the scum to evenly distribute themselves among those wagons, with very little interplay between them. They would be very comfortable to just letting the town push wagons on each other and just take a very hands off approach.

As such, my first instinct would be to look at the more lurkish type players who have been mostly going with the flow: Col. Cathart, SaintKerrigan, and maybe RECK and DDD a bit.

In this scenario, Nhammen's vote hop is an anomaly that I doubt a scum would make, just because it is a wholly unnecessary move, but it would be a weak town tell at best.
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Post Post #580 (isolation #48) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:40 pm

Post by Socrates »

I figured that my 565 made it clear that I am still pushing for a kyle lynch.
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Post Post #605 (isolation #49) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:22 pm

Post by Socrates »

Yea, I did a double take at 594.
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Post Post #621 (isolation #50) » Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:50 pm

Post by Socrates »

Cliff notes version of page 25:

Monkey: NO U!
Hoopla: NO U!
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Post Post #633 (isolation #51) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:59 am

Post by Socrates »

I do find Hoopla's BLATANT LIES to be obnoxious, and I don't know what to make of it or whether I should put any weight behind it. I would like to hear how she justifies that comment at any rate.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #52) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:34 pm

Post by Socrates »

MIC wrote:You're pushing 'too scummy to be scum' here. Hoopla was initially posting a whole lot of nothing, which I let her get away with due to her limited access. After she got back full access, her post was still a whole lot of pseudo-nothing, followed by a whole lot more of nothing accompanied by erratic shifts in stance. Hoopla's not scumhunting at all, I'm sure you've noted her stance of 'we're not likely to lynch scum today so let's not try at all'. While I see the point you're trying to make here, 'I wouldn't do that if I was scum in her place' is not the kind of reasoning I want to use to dismiss suspicions ever.
Its not the "Too scummy" defense", its the "There's no scum motivation here." defense. I don't think her actions are actually indicative of alignment. You haven't explained why her terrible reads on Charter and Serial are more likely to come from scum than town. Her reads of Charter and SerialClergyman ARE attempts to scumhunt, regardless of how weak the reasoning behind them are.

I will give you that she didn't try to do anything more than that after, and her push on Monkey is primarily fueled by self preservation, and I am certainly not going to argue that her play has been pro-town, but I really think there is more weight behind Kyle's case, who has also failed to scumhunt pretty spectacularly, if you are going to take that tack.
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Post Post #642 (isolation #53) » Wed Dec 16, 2009 4:18 pm

Post by Socrates »

I'm about ready to give up on Kyle. Post 630 makes me really, really, want a wagon on Saint at some point, but I probably wont get it today.

I will move my vote, I am just not sure on who yet. Let me get back to you later.
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Post Post #655 (isolation #54) » Thu Dec 17, 2009 11:26 am

Post by Socrates »

Screw it. This day needs to end.

unvote, vote:Monkeyman


My last decree as mayor as this days ends is that Saint needs to have the fear of death put into him tomorrow.
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Post Post #658 (isolation #55) » Thu Dec 17, 2009 12:52 pm

Post by Socrates »

Moai Interceptor Cannons wrote:Socrates, I'm starting to think you could be Hoopla and Nhammen's third scumbuddy. :?

I'll admit that I can't manufacture scum motivation for Hoopla's 375, but there's a point where cases are so bad it can't really be a serious attempt at scumhunting (otherwise
anything
can be passed off as scumhunting). It's a pathetic attempt at
looking
like she's trying to scumhunt IMO. Again, you're trying to justify a dangerous line a thinking that assumes everyone plays perfectly, when they really don't. Practically, I'm willing to bet that your line of thinking will be wrong more times than right. Hoopla is more scummy than Kyle IMO, Kyle just wants Monkey lynched whilst Hoopla has been all over the place.

You know if you really wanted the day to end that badly I'm sure everyone on the Hoopla wagon would've moved to Kyle, albeit reluctantly in my case.
Dude, I have been trying to get you guys to move for forever. You didn't. I gave up.
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Post Post #661 (isolation #56) » Thu Dec 17, 2009 1:34 pm

Post by Socrates »

Moai Interceptor Cannons wrote:That's because there was still time to try get Hoopla lynched. :(
To be honest, I probably should have said something like "If I don't get my Kyle lynch, I am lynching Monkey, so all you Hoopla voters better jump over here!" or something. I just got impatient. Sorry.
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Post Post #680 (isolation #57) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 11:15 am

Post by Socrates »

I wont be voting RECK until he checks in in the thread.

Col. Cathart, you seem to have had previous experience with MIC. How good a scum player would you say he is?
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Post Post #682 (isolation #58) » Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:11 pm

Post by Socrates »

Mmm... How does this post make you feel about MIC?
Moai Interceptor Cannons wrote:Socrates, I'm starting to think you could be Hoopla and Nhammen's third scumbuddy. :?

I'll admit that I can't manufacture scum motivation for Hoopla's 375, but there's a point where cases are so bad it can't really be a serious attempt at scumhunting (otherwise
anything
can be passed off as scumhunting). It's a pathetic attempt at
looking
like she's trying to scumhunt IMO. Again, you're trying to justify a dangerous line a thinking that assumes everyone plays perfectly, when they really don't. Practically, I'm willing to bet that your line of thinking will be wrong more times than right. Hoopla is more scummy than Kyle IMO, Kyle just wants Monkey lynched whilst Hoopla has been all over the place.

You know if you really wanted the day to end that badly I'm sure everyone on the Hoopla wagon would've moved to Kyle, albeit reluctantly in my case.
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Post Post #698 (isolation #59) » Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:41 am

Post by Socrates »

Col.Cathart wrote:
Socrates wrote:Mmm... How does this post make you feel about MIC?
Moai Interceptor Cannons wrote:Socrates, I'm starting to think you could be Hoopla and Nhammen's third scumbuddy. :?

I'll admit that I can't manufacture scum motivation for Hoopla's 375, but there's a point where cases are so bad it can't really be a serious attempt at scumhunting (otherwise
anything
can be passed off as scumhunting). It's a pathetic attempt at
looking
like she's trying to scumhunt IMO. Again, you're trying to justify a dangerous line a thinking that assumes everyone plays perfectly, when they really don't. Practically, I'm willing to bet that your line of thinking will be wrong more times than right. Hoopla is more scummy than Kyle IMO, Kyle just wants Monkey lynched whilst Hoopla has been all over the place.

You know if you really wanted the day to end that badly I'm sure everyone on the Hoopla wagon would've moved to Kyle, albeit reluctantly in my case.
Actually, it's a town-tell to me. I mean, he said it before seeing Monkey flip, and looked genuinely annoyed, that you just hammered someone who he thought was town. I doubt, scum would come up with a post like that, especially when they already knew the result of the Monkey flip. Of course, that could've been intentional, but as I said, I doubt it ATM.


Mod: I will be V/LA from Wednesday 23 to Monday 28, due to Christmas.
That was actually exactly what I was going to say, but I wanted to run it by someone else to see if they saw what I did. I asked you how good you thought MIC would be as scum, because I was wondering if he would think to make a post like that as scum.

Right now, I am thinking that MIC is town and wouldn't support a lynch on him today.

This post by Hoopla really rubs me the wrong way:
Hoopla to Monkey in 590 wrote:Stop trying to link yourself with me.
In fact, that whole exchange between Monkey and Hoopla on page 24/25 was a major waste of words and it seems likely to me that that was a last ditch effort by Monkey and Hoopla to distance themselves from each other.

I think Kyle is likely town at this time.

Reck's jumping off of the Monkey wagon to attack one of the primary pushers of said wagon (me) seems iffy, then staying off of the wagon because of the cop claim. To be honest, I was totally expecting Reck to claim mason just because of the hard core buddying he was doing on Nhammen yesterday. Monkey's piss-poor attempts to throw dirt Reck's way at various times yesterday are still points in his favor though.

You know, a Hoopla, Reck, Monkey scum team almost works
too
well to explain the play day 1.

vote: Hoopla
for now.
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Post Post #706 (isolation #60) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 1:12 pm

Post by Socrates »

@Kyle: Who are you suspicious of today?
SaintKerrigan wrote:Hoopla could possibly be an SK. She's not playing like she's town, in my opinion, but if she were scum I would've expected her to jump off the MonkeyMan wagon and onto Kyle; thus, an SK.

Vote: Hoopla.


@ DDD: Why is Cathart a town read?
Meh. A Hoopla-Monkey scum team is one of the few situations that I wouldn't be surprised to see scum decide not to drop a bus. She would have already had to put her vote there for self preservation even though Monkey was a scum power role, and it was pretty obvious that Monkey was doomed to die at some indeterminate time in the future. Since trying to save monkey would have been a hopeless exercise and if she did hop over to Kyle, and then Kyle flipped town and Monkey flipped scum, she would be looking at a pretty tight spot, it would be reasonable for scum to decide to go for a distancing tactic. And I have already said how I feel the antagonism between her and Monkey as the day ended seemed artificial. I mean, come on. "Nice job fooling them Hoopla."?
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Post Post #717 (isolation #61) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 6:26 pm

Post by Socrates »

Hoopla wrote:If there was a vigilante, why am I (and to a lesser extent kyle) still alive after Night 1. I don't remember anyone really being that suspicious of nhammen.
Charter, is this a scum slip or am I just crazy?
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Post Post #720 (isolation #62) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 6:33 pm

Post by Socrates »

Hoopla wrote:
Socrates wrote:
Hoopla wrote:If there was a vigilante, why am I (and to a lesser extent kyle) still alive after Night 1. I don't remember anyone really being that suspicious of nhammen.
Charter, is this a scum slip or am I just crazy?
I don't understand. Explain to me.

Also, Charter wouldn't be that stupid to shoot nhammen if he was town aligned.
You seem to know that SerialClergyman was the mafia kill. I see no reason to assume that.
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Post Post #722 (isolation #63) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 6:50 pm

Post by Socrates »

Hoopla wrote:
Socrates wrote: You seem to know that SerialClergyman was the mafia kill. I see no reason to assume that.
Who other than me would shoot SC?
Anyone who thought he looked pretty bad after hopping off of the Monkeywagon to champion letting him live a day while pushing an alternative lynch.

Who would shoot Nhammen?
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Post Post #724 (isolation #64) » Tue Dec 22, 2009 7:07 pm

Post by Socrates »

:?
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Post Post #734 (isolation #65) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 11:45 am

Post by Socrates »

Yay for quick hammers?
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Post Post #740 (isolation #66) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:07 pm

Post by Socrates »

charter wrote:Do we not have a mayor or something anymore? The votecount doesn't show Socrates as having two votes. Also, apparently Socrates decides who gets lynched if we hit a deadline, so even though I think Socrates is town, this scenario should never happen.

Anyhow, I'm not sad that the day is over. Hoopla, if you're town and you are a power role and you have useful information, it'd be great if you could post it.
I lose my double vote if we have an odd number of players. I assume it is a balancing decision to prevent breaking end game scenarios for the scum. (Town couldn't win a 3 man end game with a scum mayor.)
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Post Post #742 (isolation #67) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:18 pm

Post by Socrates »

I just looked at the rules and was like, "the only time the mayor can change majority is when we have an odd number of players, so why not just say that?" I was actually expecting to see some other roles that could manipulate votes, just because of the wording of the rules, but we haven't seen any so far.

I actually didn't notice it myself until I got elected.

Anyway, Reckoner is the lynch tomorrow. If he is town, then I guess the scum would be found somewhere between Kyle and Col. Cathart. This is pretty much my view regardless of Hoopla's flip, interestingly enough.
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Post Post #748 (isolation #68) » Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:00 pm

Post by Socrates »

So your feeling is that Charter came out of the gate and bussed his partner from post 1 and never let up?
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Post Post #820 (isolation #69) » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:23 pm

Post by Socrates »

MIC was obv town after Kyle tried to fake a guilty on him, IMO.

I need to trust my day 1 reads more, apparently. I was right about Monkey, I was right about Hoopla, and I was right about Kyle (for the wrong reasons. ;)).

I am never trusting a "scum slip" again.

I LOVE that DDD didn't claim vig.

Saint handled the game very well in endgame, props to him.

Props where props are due, I think Kyle's bus was well timed. Looking back, Kyle being unable to fathom a townie claiming when Monkey did makes so much more sense now. :)

This was a very fun game. One thing I must remark upon is that there was ZERO replacements in this game. I don't think I have ever seen that before.
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Post Post #825 (isolation #70) » Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:33 pm

Post by Socrates »

Also, there were two scum on Hoopla's support wagon, just like I predicted, and two of the three players who exhibited my political scum tell were scum, and I think I can see the difference between the scum who did it and the townie who did it. Both Monkey and Cathart tried to actively cast suspicion while Saint was just nervous about that kind of thing.

Definitely stuff to keep under my hat for future games.
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