Newbie 871 - Game Over Town Win

[DarthRandal1138]

Hello, everyone.

Hello again, Annachie. *tips hat*

@Annachie: No-lynch is a bad idea D1, since it gives us almost no information.
A reasoned vote would, of course, be ideal, but pretty much requires scum to slip up D1.
A random vote is almost inevitable D1, barring suspicious activity from someone, but should be avoided in following days, as more and more information accrues.

@boberz: This is my second game of Mafia ever, but I've been lurking and reading on this site and others for a good, long while, and I feel I have a pretty sound grasp of the underlying theory. Now I just need some good, practical experience.

[DarthRandal1138]

Where's Randal?

I'm here. I've gone from a 10-hour day of work, straight to a midnight showing of

New Moon

, a couple hours sleep, to another full day at work, where I am posting this from my phone. I'll give the thread a full reread tonight, with some analysis immediately thereafter, or in the morning, if I can't string together something coherent.

[DarthRandal1138]

ProTip: If you announce you'll post in the morning, it will inevitably slip into the evening...

Some quick thoughts, to be followed by heavier analysis in a post to follow:

As to any read I might have on Annachie, I really don't have one. We've only played in one game together (the first for both(?) of us), so I can't really establish any real meta on him.

On the congenial nature of Patrick, Ether and Incog's posts: I read quite a few games on this site before I started playing, and am semi-familiar with all three of our experienced posters. I'd not read too much into their banter, and I'm not remotely concerned about any "outside of the thread" type of collusion. That said, if one of them is scum, we need to be on our toes. If *two* of them are scum... we're doomed.

(As an aside, I was truly pleased to see the three of you as our experienced players this game. It's a pleasure to be in a game with y'all. ICs (and SEs) of your quality should ensure an enjoyable game. [/fanboi] ).

On the subject of my posting speed, my work schedule keeps me from posting as much as I would like, and often restricts my posting to odd hours for someone in my timezone (GMT-6). I let my last game get away from me somewhat, and nearly got replaced, but this game seems to be much faster-paced thus far, and I intend to do better.

That said, while I do occasionally check the site from my phone during quiet moments on the job, I try to restrict any serious posting to when I'm at home after work. If you see me online, but I'm not posting, don't assume I'm lurking

per se

. I'm keeping up with the game, but not able to post.

Heavier analysis to come, following a reread.

[DarthRandal1138]

First, some specific responses:

Don't put off posting to make your posts look more thorough.

Not "putting off posting." I skimmed the new content in the thread, gave some "quick impressions," per your earlier advice, and then commenced a complete reread. If my posts "look thorough," it's because I'm *being* thorough. In the future, I'd appreciate if you'd give me more than 20-ish minutes before you bust me for lurking.

@Incognito: /tips hat

Am I right in saying that you encourage random voting throughout the day, unless a person does something particularly suspicious?

Nope. That was a goof on my part. Should have read:

A random

lynch

is almost inevitable D1(…)

Bold part fixxored.

In general, the D1 lynch is "random" in the sense that there's generally very little to go on, barring any major scumslips. A D1 mislynch is nigh-inevitable, just based on the numbers.

However, that's not what Annachie was asking. I don't think a random *vote* should ever lead to a lynch. The RVS can be very useful for gathering information, but at some point, the town needs to "get down to business" and start scumhunting. That phase began very early in this game, to the point that there was hardly any RVS at all.

(The miscommunication, by the way, was due to the fact that this was sort of a continuation, as Annachie has mentioned, of a conversation we had in our previous game together. I was in the mindset of discussing random/reasoned *lynches*, while Annachie was asking about random/reasoned *votes*. My apologies for the misunderstanding, and my delay in responding to it.)

Now, for some thoughts on individual posters:

Annachie

The only player here I have any direct experience with, but nothing I'd call a "meta" yet. Seems fairly town to me, and is participating well.

However, this:

(Anything: town, scum,

power role

)

(Emphasis mine)

…is troubling. Rolefishing much? There's no benefit to asking about potential power roles, especially this early. At any rate, with no night phase yet, I'm not sure how anyone is supposed to have *any* opinion on any potential power roles. Not liking this train of thought at all…

boberz

Townish. I especially like his asking about everyone's prior experience. Just because someone has a recent join date, that doesn't mean that they're new to the game.

Not sure what to make of his vote on Incog, though. Some of his reasoning is a bit off, particularly the accusation of buddying for repeating his (boberz') question to me. I also don't get why trying to "hook scum" is a scum tell. If Incog was attempting to lay a trap to draw out scum with his vote on Ether, wouldn't that imply that Incog is town?

DarthRandal1138

A rock. Utterly, utterly town. Shame he's the strong silent type…

(Seriously, Ether, I know I've been quiet. I should be more active going into the holiday week.)

Ether

Generally town, though I wouldn't really expect a player of Ether's calibre to slip up as scum this early in the game.
That said, I really am finding her town thus far. The "Hi, Herd" poke, as well as her dogged pursuit of one of the more inveterate lurkers (/sheepish :p ), both seem to be the actions of a town player. An active scum player can make good use of townie lurkers, but she has mostly been trying to keep everyone's posting levels up. More posts = more information, and more information only benefits the town.

herd456

His random vote, cast somewhat after the RVS had clearly ended, combined with this general lack of activity (as well as his lack of content when he *does* post) are pinging my scumdar. Not quite ready for a vote yet, but I'll be watching.

Incognito

Has been posting lots of quality content. When I read his iso, I was surprised to see he only has 10 posts thus far. With the amount of content he's put out, I had assumed his post count would actually be higher. Solid town read, but, as with Ether, I think he's good enough to play very town as scum, especially this early. I've got a good feeling, but I'll be keeping my eyes open.

ksen

Not really liking all the back-and-forth about the whole "not reading the OP" discussion. I really got the impression that he *didn't* read the rules, and then tried to cover for it. That said, I don't really think that not reading the rules is a tell. I think that scum (even newbscum) would be more likely to read the rules thoroughly than newbtown, so as to avoid exactly such a slip. I don't think it's anything we can read to much into, but I think his repeated denials and covering *do* bear observation.

Patrick

No strong read one way or the other. As such he is, by default, the most suspicious of our three potentially dangerous experienced players, and will be watched accordingly. It is, of course, still early.

Yarmond

Is this guy even playing? I'd be very happy to provide my thoughts on him (or her), just as soon as he (or she) gives us something to go on.

TL;DR

:
(1)

FOS: herd456 & ksen

(2) Patrick, Ether, and Incognito all bear watching, as any of them as scum could be very, very dangerous.
(3)

Vote: Yarmond

, until he/she gets in here and starts talking.

(Preview edit:)

@Ether: Back off. I'll take exactly as long as I want to to formulate my posts. If you don't like it, log off and quit waiting.

[DarthRandal1138]

(...)when I explicitly asked you to be spontaneous and worry about fleshing it out later?

You can "explicitly ask" whatever you like; I'm not spontaneous and I'm not going to try to be.

I'll take however long I like to answer a question, simple or no.

I dictate my playstyle, not you or anyone else.

Don't like it?

Find an excuse to vote me.