Mini 854 - Dice Mafia (Over)

[Excedrin]

Awesome, I got the Quad Damage

Vote: lewarcher82, mathcam, Rosso Carne, lewarcher82

(is that the right way to place my 4 seperate votes?)

[Excedrin]

I split votes to find out what Empking's preference was.

Other than that, it seems like the only reason to spread votes around is to show varying shades of suspicion (3 votes for one person and one vote as a more solid version of a FoS on someone else, or 2 votes on one wagon and 2 on another for the ultimate in fence sitting).

[Excedrin]

mathcam, is there something that I missed that indicates this is a nightless game (or that scum doesn't have a NK)?

[Excedrin]

Thanks, that would have been embarrassing.

le Chat does have one vote from lewarcher82.

[Excedrin]

It seems reasonable to ask questions about the fact that it's nightless. I didn't even know it was nightless until after mathcam mentioned it (I missed it in the queue, probably because I was more interested in the multiple votes mechanic). Asking about it to appear town seems like a stretch, but why else would someone ask that? As town, maybe he's just curious? Maybe he's unfamiliar with typical nightless games? Maybe he wanted to attempt to learn something about the setup:

1) I don't. Which would be why I asked that question... If the scum can talk at day, it's safe to assume there is more than one.

Even if Empking had answered this publicly, it wouldn't reveal anything about the setup since 1 scum (who can daytalk... with himself) or 2 scum or 2 unaligned scum is possible.

Well, I have the same feeling, Nacho. I do not change all my votes to you, for now (it would be virtually L-Rosso and Rosso would prolly hammer), but please answer.

Is there something I should know here?

Vote: lewarcher82, lewarcher82, lewarcher82, le Chat

[Excedrin]

I'd rather explain after he responds (obviously I'll clarify if that's necessary).

[Excedrin]

Well, that answered my question, I guess.

It seemed odd that lewarcher82 seemed hesitant to vote for his top suspect based on the idea that Rosso Carne would likely hammer. So I was looking for "Oh yea, well Rosso Carne always hammers, he's known for it, check the avatar etc."

Anyway that was a fast d1 and scum apparently doesn't have a kill. Today we have a similar situation as yesterday in that only 2 players are needed to lynch.

Vote: lewarcher82

Because I didn't like the way you jumped on the case against Nachomamma8, stated that you didn't want to let Rosso hammer, then did it anyway.

[Excedrin]

Yea, I hadn't played with Rosso Carne either and I'm now in 2 games with him. So... surprising playstyle but I agree with mathcam's take on this.

@exce: fail. I am town.

I have fever tonite.... gonna post tomorrow or ask 4 replacement if it takes longer.

feeling better, no need to replace me.

I exitated voting nacho, it is true, but then i decided to do it. The reason is that he couldn't and wouldn't give any justification for the post I found scummy.

Glad that you're feeling better. Well, I guess you're town, so I should unvote.
He did give some justification (in post 40), he was trying to learn about the setup, to town's advantage. lewarcher82 ignored it and then voted anyway despite his expectation that Rosso Carne would hammer.

to: Nachomamma8

i was just saying I did not call you scummy.

Is this like, "his action was possibly scummy, but I'm not calling him scummy"? What's the point of splitting hairs here?

hello everyone. my v/la was longer than i expected, and i have class within the hour, but i will be back for good today and post.

was surprised to see day 2. then i remembered quad rosso.

Welcome to day 2, looking forward to your post.

[Excedrin]

Talking about thin cases, what's your case to lynch le Chat?

[Excedrin]

We can't lynch without Rosso. So, despite wanting lewarcher82 lynched... I'll presume he's town, then lets see if I can find a reason to vote mathcam (as in, figure out what Rosso noticed/is thinking etc).

[Excedrin]

I probably should have made this one post.

Does anyone have any meta on lewarcher82?

I think I might see what Rosso sees.

lewarcher82:
are you opposed to a mathcam lynch today?
also, what's your experience with mafia outside of MS?

[Excedrin]

lewarcher82, please respond to some of the questions I asked in #84

[Excedrin]

1) I do not know about Mathcam: I hate the way LeChat is lurking, and I am convinced Rosso is town (I know I am, and if he were mafia in this situation he would have hammered me), so mathcam's post FoSing and voting Rosso is *possible* scum. I may hammer, if no new idea occurs to me.

Ok, thanks. I basically have no vote today. If you place both of your votes on mathcam, Rosso will hammer and end the day.

Apparently Rosso won't hammer le Chat and I'm not interested in voting le Chat, presumably mathcam doesn't want to vote le Chat.

nolynch is another option. I suspect that if you place both votes on nolynch you might get 2 additional votes for it.

[Excedrin]

le Chat, what do you think about Rosso's desire for a mathcam lynch?

[Excedrin]

Unvote

What happens at deadline if there's no majority? If it nolynches, that'd be OK with me.

[Excedrin]

Well. We know that if there's 2 scum, then it's not Sanjay and anyone else since Sanjay could hammer either le Chat or lewarcher82.

Also, it's possible but unlikely that it's lewarcher82 and anyone else since nobody's even trying to get a le Chat, mathcam, Sanjay, Excedrin lynch (lewarcher82 + X just needs to attract one more vote given how votes are distributed).

So if there's 2 scum, it's probably 2 of the single voters. From my perspective, that would make mathcam and le Chat scum. That seems unlikely. I doubt that there's 2 scum.

I think that Rosso Carne may have been hinting that nobody looked at mathcam's reasons for lynching Nachomamma8 and that he thought mathcam was scum for trying to push a lewarcher82 lynch on day 2 since it's probably the easiest lynch. So, I have a slight suspicion of mathcam.

lewarcher82 has claimed some experience at playing mafia, but his defense has been basically, "I'm town, I know my role it is town" and his suspicion seems to be based on gut entirely. I think that insisting that there's likely 2 scum is scummy since it looks like he's trying to prevent people from lynching him.

I'd suggest that, if any of that seems reasonable to Sanjay, a possible way to break this standstill (aside from nolynch) would be for lewarcher82 to claim (he's at L-Sanjay). Then if his claim looks at all reasonable, possibly look at mathcam.

mod: I unvoted earlier

[Excedrin]

lewarcher82, asking you to claim was more for Sanjay (if Sanjay wanted). But, now that you have, it doesn't seem like a role that would be scum aligned.

Also, it's a (semi) mod confirmed role.

this post and the next one say:

lewarcher82

Dice Roll

:

Original Roll String:

1d4

1 4-Sided Dice Results:

1

...
lewarcher82: 4
...
[4]lewarcher82: 0

Sanjay, if you were scum you could hammer le Chat or lewarcher82 and win (assuming that 2 town and 2 mafia results in mafia win).

[Excedrin]

I thought you were assuming the two scum were unaligned.

I don't think there's 2 scum, maybe I should. But, I was describing why I disagreed with lewarcher82's idea that it's currently lylo, which only makes sense with 2 aligned scum.

If there's unaligned scum I'm not sure how the setup would work since apparently neither has a kill, they'd each have to get the other one lynched if it got to final 3 or it'd be a draw? I suppose it depends on hypothetical unaligned scum win condition(s).

[Excedrin]

At first glance it looks like a better distribution of votes, but one of Excedrin or mathcam is required to lynch anyone.

le Chat rolled 3 and only has 1 vote... that's kinda weird, he also rolled 3 on day 1 and had 2 votes, but Nachomamma8 was a vote increaser. On day 2 le Chat had 1 vote again despite rolling 2.

So, le Chat seems to be stuck with 1 vote regardless of die roll. I'm not sure if we can use that to figure out align, but it's interesting. There might be final 3 implications (as in, we can't have him alive in final 3 since he might not be able to lynch, but I guess it would just go to next day) but I haven't thought about it much.

[Excedrin]

Mass claim would be fine if it's lylo. But I don't think it is, so, unless there's an actual reason to MC I'm not sure why we should at this point.

What we need is more discussion. So a MC would give us something to talk about and might not be bad. But, there's stuff to talk about anyway, perhaps everyone could state what they think about the case on Nachomamma8 from day 1 and subsequent bandwagon.

Was mathcam's original reason for suspecting Nachomama8 a good one?

Sanjay, what do you mean by "not townish enough"? What have you done or not done that you think causes others to see you in a non-town light? I'm curious since my read on Rosso Carne was somewhat town, since he refused to hammer lewarcher82 (mathcam's view on why that's not a town-tell is noted).

[Excedrin]

Any reason for le Chat vote?

[Excedrin]

Sounds good

Vote: le Chat x3

[Excedrin]

I am not sure if I can see what is happening here.

Hm, maybe you're right. The last few posts have been odd. I'm going to

Unvote: Lewarcher

x3. Not that this is really preventing a lynch since lewarcher can hammer, but hopefully reduces the pressure on lewarcher so that we can figure out what's going on here first.

Worried about self hammer?

Excedrin: That's all you have to say after your absence?

Sanjay: You've been pretty good at explaining your actions as you do them. Why no comment on Le Chat?

Cam

Yea pretty much. It's weird that lewarcher went from "lets lynch le Chat, he's scum" to "omg lets consider le Chat to be clear." I'm really unsure what to make of that. His reason for clearing le Chat seems kinda plausible, but the flip-flop makes me want to lynch him.

[Excedrin]

So your original reason to lynch le Chat wasn't based on thinking, then you did some thinking and decided he's likely town?

Why didn't you think before advocating his lynch the first time?

[Excedrin]

Not that my little vote matters any.

It put Chat in hammer-range, so it's not irrelevant...

That's true. What do you think about Sanjay's unvote after I wagoned?

mathcam, why unvote lewarcher82? Do you think he is less scummy now?

Not at all. In fact, his recent posts have only convinced me further. My only hiccup was you and excedrin piling on 4 quick votes on Le Chat. I was briefly worried about a Sanjay/Excedrin scum pair taking advantage of lewarcher's overdefensiveness to get a quick hammer on Le Chat to end the game. I've since convinced myself that was silly.

Fair enough. So, who's your top 2 lynch choices today?
All the unvoting is really weird (you and Sanjay), but this is a weird game in general, there's not much activity and nobody seems to have any strong suspicions (case against lewarcher is best I guess).

Worried about self hammer?

Huh? No, worried about Le Chat hammer.

Ah, I get it. I was confused by "unvote lewarcher -> lewarcher can hammer" like your vote prevented him from self-hammering.

[Excedrin]

Alright, so if we assume that le Chat is lurking/flaked/whatever because he has a relatively vanilla role and his fixed 1 vote implies that he's not scum because it would guarantee scum loss in lylo..., then that leaves me, Sanjay, lewarcher82, mathcam.

I think that Sanjay's unvote is a little scummy. But he started out pretty town, so I'm getting a neutral, slightly scummy kind of read. mathcam brought up a good point earlier re: RC, that his refusal to hammer two townies in a row could be because he's scum who would have a hard time explaining two mislynches.

lewarcher82 seems weird to me, I don't like that he repeated the idea that it's 2 scum and lylo when it looked like he was going to be lynched and voted le Chat without reason, then dropped the idea when pressure on him was decreased. So, my read is extremely scummy or weird-town. I'm leaning towards weird-town right now.

mathcam is hard to read, his case on d1 was kinda bad, but it was day 1 so that's not particularly scummy. He is consistent with his suspicion of lewarcher82 (with the exception of this post) and actually has a pretty reasonable case, but something about it doesn't feel right. Mostly I don't see assumptions (lewarcher's assumption that scum win condition is the typical majority) or questions about the setup (Nachomamma8's question) as reliable indicators of inside knowledge.

So, I don't like relying on process of elimination instead of being able to point at something that's specifically scummy, but lets lynch mathcam or Sanjay.

I'm willing to lynch lewarcher82 to avoid nolynch, there's no reason to NL twice given the current vote distribution.

[Excedrin]

Vote: mathcam, mathcam, mathcam

Oh hey, I forgot to vote.

Your unvote bugged me because it seems like, "Oh hey lets lynch this guy... (oh shit not really!)" where I don't think we have a ton to go on so town should be a bit more willing to let a lynch happen (especially when there's not much happening) whereas scum has to be careful. I'm not sure if that explains the idea, but there you go.

[Excedrin]

Hi Casey, thanks for replacing.

It's surprising that after mathcam's lynch the game didn't end. Obviously there's another scum.

Vote distribution today implies that it takes two to lynch (Sanjay + one of Excedrin / lewarcher82), but nobody's unlynchable (Casey + Excedrin + lewarcher82 = 5 votes).

The 3 posts starting here stand out to me now.

[Excedrin]

In what way do those posts stand out to you, Excedrin?

At that time, I thought that 1 scum was likely. My post was about lewarcher82's idea that we had 2 aligned scum. That you apparently assumed there were 2 unaligned scum is odd.

It could be a case of what mathcam was talking about (and that I dismissed) regarding Nachomamma8 and lewarcher82 (supposed inside info regarding the setup).

[Excedrin]

Alright, then mathcam mentioned somewhere that if it was aligned scum, they couldn't necessarily quickhammer and win even if it was lylo on the previous day because win conditions might not be simple majority. (re: this post)

So is looking at who could have quicklynched with mathcam pointless?

I can't tell if I'm excited or dismayed that this game could plausibly come down to a dice roll (e.g., 1 scum vs. 1 town, just who gets more votes). Nah, I'm pretty sure I'm excited.

Implies that scum has to be sole survivor.

Casey, how's your reread coming? Do you have any insight / suspects / questions etc? What do you think about your predecessor's opinions on the game?

[Excedrin]

if casey was mafia, since he always had 1 vote, town would have won, since there are no nights in this game.

So I do insist on Excedrin's claim.

Yeaaaaaa, I don't rly want to claim.

What do you hope to get from my claim?

[Excedrin]

Sanjay your claim please.

I need to claim in order to see who was possibly mafia in the past hammering times. As I told, LeChat couldn't and can't.

My (and other's) number of votes were known, how does a claim help verify that?

[Excedrin]

It doesn't seem like it will reveal anything that helps find scum. Also I'm paranoid about giving scum info about the setup (for example, perhaps the remaining scum has to get a specific role lynched to win).

I recognize it's paranoia, so if people really want me to claim I'll do it.

[Excedrin]

@Sanjay: I am smart enough, don't worry kid. Problem is, data confirm his claim. Even if he weren't SO weak (say that under some conditions he can get more than 1 vote), it has always been way too weak to be mafia.

That Casey has 1 vote doesn't indicate alignment. In a 6 player game, my initial thought was that there would be one scum, but since scum has no kill, 2 scum seems reasonable. If there's 2 scum making one of them weaker than "average" seems like a possible way to balance the setup. Otherwise scum could possibly quick lynch depending entirely on die rolls. The game could have ended on day 2 depending on dice unless there's something like your role or Casey's role that reduces the randomness.

That said, I don't think that anyone's going to find scum (or town) based on speculating about the setup.

@Excedrin: Sanjay moved a good objection, and even if I remain convinced of my idea I answered him. You, on th contrary, refuse to claim for some strange "paranoia-related" reasons... sounds odd.

I didn't refuse to claim. I asked a few questions about why you want me to claim that you haven't answered. I also mentioned that massclaim seemed pointless on the previous day for the same reasons.

@Sanjay(2): I cannot prevent this plan (cannot force anyone to use his brains), but it would be possible mafia win, in my opinion, cuz I am sure that either you or Exce is the last mafia. Why do you want to lynch me? I started the wagon that killed Cam yestarday. I know this doesn't prove anything,

but how can I be scummier than Exce?

Here is MY plan. Unless one of you two can get 4 votes tomorrow, which never happened (did it?), this shouldn't be lylo. So I say we lynch one of you two.

Hypothetically, if we lynch Excedrin today:
Tomorrow results in 3 alive, so,
lewarcher82 has 1 vote (3/2 = 1.5 = 1 rounded down)
Casey has 1 vote
Sanjay has 1 or 2 votes (dice = 3/2+1 = 2 rounded down)

If there's 4 votes total then 3 to lynch
If there's 3 votes then 2 to lynch.

As the number of players decreases, randomness becomes less of a factor.

In both of these cases I'm assuming that Casey's role stays consistent and that Sanjay's role follows "standard" dice mechanic.

Also, re: the bolded part, how am I scummy at all? I'm curious how your opinion changed from your post to this post.

What changed?! You're attacking me! And calling my questions stupid! You're horrible!

Is this serious? I'm asking because there's a lot of exclamation points.

[Excedrin]

However, Mathcam's reveal just says that he's Mafia, so I'm confident that the team is aligned and that Lewarcher is the last scum.

So you think that mathcam was bussing lewarcher82 on day 2 and lewarcher82 was bussing mathcam as well on day 3?

Also, just for the record, I mentioned 2 unaligned scum first (by far earlier than anyone else) here.

#105
Ooh that is true. A NL would re-roll all the votes. =] I'm totally for that, being Mr. Weak-vote.

I think I found something solid. This post by le Chat makes no sense if le Chat always has only one vote. Please take a moment to look at it in context.

[Excedrin]

I don't understand how that quote makes no sense, Excedrin. Admittedly, my role PM is very hard to understand (grammatical mistakes and an incomplete / run-on sentence), but it says that I only get one vote.

Because le Chat says, "What's the point of nolynch? Oh, it re-rolls the votes, so I could get more votes! That's a great idea!" But le Chat knew his own role. So, knowing his role (that you have now claimed), there's really no reason for le Chat to want or care if votes are re-rolled.

[Excedrin]

Oh pick me!

[Excedrin]

Alright, I'm a die made of shark tooth, aka vanilla townie.

[Excedrin]

That sums up my feelings pretty well, just replace "Excedrin" in your post with "Sanjay"

I'm looking forward to lewarcher82's analysis of claims.

[Excedrin]

Number of votes mechanic is explained in the 1st post, it's a random number between 1 and N where N is number of players / 2 + 1 rounded down.

Day 1, 6 alive, N was 4
Day 2, 5 alive, N was 3

etc.

Please stop trying to break the setup and focus for a moment on behavior.

[Excedrin]

Yea, I think lewarcher82 is town (as I did prev day), but it's kinda weird.

I have to admit that Sanjay's been more pro-town than lewarcher82, but I think it's because lewarcher82 is noob (no offense). And it's obviously possible to be pro-town as scum.

I think setup speculation makes Casey look more scummy, not less. And, conveniently for me, my view of the setup matches exactly with my reads on people.

Agreed.

I'm ok with Casey lynch, but I want to make sure that lewarcher82 has nothing sensible to say...

I don't have any hammer activated abilities

I agree with you about RC, I played with him in 2 games (this one and Starcontrol mafia, I got him lynched sorta (he flaked, and there were no replacements, he was modkilled)) and had not played with him before at all and his style is hillarious (and good!). I read some of his games and he says like, "meta is bad for your health" or something. tl;dr I like hammering too!

Vote: Casey, Casey

I will let you hammer, but after at least one more post from lewarcher82.

[Excedrin]

Unvote

Vote: Casey

Only meant to vote once.

[Excedrin]

Did you mean Excedrin? Because you certainly couldn't have meant me. How could I even win with my role if I was scum?

If mafia wincondition is the typical majority one, then, step 1, survive to final 3, step 2 get someone town lynched.

The mafia can't kill in this game, which probably means the mafia don't know who their partner or SK is.

So Rosso didn't quick-hammer Day 2 because he was worried that he found his scumbuddy.

That's an idea. So Rosso thought lewarcher82 was his scumbuddy? I don't really see it, I think that's a stretch. The idea that mathcam thought le Chat was his scumbuddy (either because it was mentioned in PM or based on his read of the thread) seems more likely considering mathcam is now proven mafia.

Alright,

Vote: Casey, Casey

We'll see the results of lewarcher82's reread tomorrow.

[Excedrin]

Good game, thanks for modding. That was a very weird theme, at the start I thought it was likely that each role would be a dice, but after Nachomamma's flip I had no idea .

I'm not sure if the dice mechanic actually changed much, except for the day we NL'd in order to reroll votes. Basically, some days had reduced majority.

[Excedrin]

Excedrin, we make a great team! I was so pleased when you said "we should lynch mathcam or Sanjay" and I said "Okay, I choose mathcam" and you said "Okay". That was some really compelling scumhunting there.

that's just how I