Mini 199 - Time Travel Mafia, Game Over!

[Gaspode]

I would bet there is more than one killing group. Wasn't there a non-time-travelling SK in one of the earlier time travel games? Maybe he killed EmpTyger, and the mafia sent a kill forward in time.

vote: SinisterOverlord

Oh no! I didn't say it's random! I must be scum or a cop!

[Gaspode]

And I was trying to subtlely make a point that you should all read this (or at least some of it, I didn't even have time to read the whole thing myself): http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &showall=1

[Gaspode]

Nox: That's sort of my position. If people want to random vote to start the day, I'm not going to complain--it's not necessarily the perfect play, but it has its purpose and doesn't really hurt. However, I'm more one to follow the mith school of useless yet nonrandom babble and using any tiny hunch or idea to get the day going.

I just don't think someone voting without specifically calling it random is no real cause for alarm. Such a vote can't really be considered a mafia tell (mafia want to fit in with the crowd, not stick out), and why would a cop come out day one? There are always sanity questions, etc. Plus, if a cop was going to come out, I'd hope they would just do it all at once, rather than be all cryptic about it, attracting the attention of scum but still being useless to the town.

So if you want a definite reason for the vote, it's because I don't think every Day 1 vote needs to be random (as opposed to what SinisterOverlord implies), and any tiny ridiculous reason for a vote (like this one) is preferable to random for me, if only to start discussion. (And in this case, the fact that Stoofer didn't specifically say it was random didn't mean it wasn't.)

In other words, it's about 1% above random.

[Gaspode]

Hopefully Stoofer will show up soon to clarify things; the last thing we need is for me to continue ranting on useless voting theory.

[Gaspode]

Personally, I just hope Stoofer says

something

soon, whether it's related to the vote or not. He hasn't made a post since, and I highly doubt that there are post-restricted roles in this game.

[Gaspode]

@Gaspode: Don't assume anything. Just because your role doesn't say anything about post restrictions doen't mean anybody else won't have them. Having said that, I agree.

I'm basing the assumption on what I know of the mod (who I happen to have been playing with for more than two and a half years). He is not one to discourage discussion. Plus, I just did a search for the words "post restricted role" and "post restriction" and can safely say that in addition to the fact that he has never used a posting restriction in any of his games since the crash of 2003 (and probably before that), and none of his posts that contain those words say anything positive about posting restrictions. So I doubt he'd use them in this game. Plus, they wouldn't make much sense in time travel mafia.

it is actually an advantage to the town to have them lynched. This is because they get confirmed on death.

I understand the point, but I think the logic is flawed. It is certainly advantageous for a townie to die over another pro-town role, and it's even arguable that early townie night deaths are preferable to no night death at all (since they can be saved and are confirmed innocents). However, I can't see anything good about a townie being lynched except that the lynch a pro-town non-townie role is especially bad due to the lack of alignment info.

I'm not sure exactly what to make of Someone's post. After some consideration, it's probably just an honest mistake using some twisted logic, but taken at face value, it looks pretty darn suspicious and could theoretically be a mafia slip.

unvote: SinisterOverlord

just because he hasn't really done anything that suspicious yet, and people seem to want to be a bit more conservative than usual.

[Gaspode]

You do make a good point, though, Fishbulb. I noticed it as well, but I figured I'd give it some time and analyze a bit more before I said anything about it.

I'd like to hear some more from Sinister Overlord and Quagmire. They haven't said much. And though SpeedyKQ has been begging Fishbulb to reveal his logic, he hasn't really presented any himself. I'd like to hear something useful from him as well.

[Gaspode]

By the way, as for the Lynch All Liars debate, these are JEEP's exact words:

[Lynch All Liars] is a MetaGame ploy that is STRONGLY encouraged by -JEEP. Confusion and lies are two of the best weapons of the Mafia. Thus, it is generally bad play for pro-town roles to lie. In order to encourage GOOD play, the policy should be: Lynch anyone caught in a lie. They are most likely mafia, and if they aren't then lynching them might teach them that they should not lie.

Make of it what you will. IMO, the "generally" implies that there are

very

rare circumstances in which it is ok for a pro-town player to lie. It says nothing about strategic omission of information (a very useful, yet still basically honest tactic). Considering the strangeness of this game, I'd say that anything can happen. Absolutism is not always the right way to go.

[Gaspode]

My apologies for my absence for the last couple of days. Unfortunately, my weekend is going to be just as crazy as my last few days turned out to be. I will most likely read up and post on Monday. Sorry.

[Gaspode]

I've started to read, but I'm not done yet. Just wanted to let you know I haven't forgotten about the game; a post will come soon. I have some things to do, I'll finish reading later.

All I'm getting so far is that this is a very tough day.

[Gaspode]

Wow. A lot has happened.

The claim kind of threw me for a loop. I'm not sure what to think. It could be a scum ploy to draw out another claim, but it could be legit. He has been acting weird all game, and I kind of got more of a scummy feeling than a doc feeling, but you never know--they can be very similar.

I'd be interested to find out more about Stoofer's time fuel and other specifics of his role if there are any (is there time travel at all, is it just a basic backup doc, etc.).

I think SO's latest post reeks of CrapLogic and scumminess. I don't have time to explain now (dinnertime), but I will in my next post if anyone wants me to.

[Gaspode]

Interesting night. Somewhat good in the fact that we have only one death yet again, but bad in that the Day 1 vote count is possibly within reach of time travel manipulation (and obviously Quag's death).

This could mean we only have one killing group, but we shouldn't rule out other possibilities, as somebody could be stacking up kills for night three or four, or docs/townies could have gotten lucky. I would actually be surprised if there were only one killing group in this game, but things are looking better.

I originally thought Quag was somewhat suspicious, but the fact that he's now dead puts the odds more in favor of his innocence.

I'd comment on suspicions from yesterday, but there's a severe thunderstorm warning here and I have to shut down my PC.

[Gaspode]

Argh! So sorry I haven't posted. I was at the George Parks Drum Major Academy in Kutztown, PA from Friday to Monday (yeah band nerds!) and completely forgot to mention it in the thread. I'm kind of in a reality shock right now. I'll catch up and post tomorrow. Again, sorry I didn't say anything.

PS: Yes, I'd be happy to elaborate on my SO comment, but I need to continue catching up on life at the moment and get to sleep soon.

[Gaspode]

As for SO's post (June 28, 8:51 a.m., don't know the exact number):

In general, he just seemed to dwell on somewhat trivial matters after the first half of the post, and some of the logic that he used was faulty. But the most glaring thing that jumped out at me when I read the post was this:

So I'm prepared to be more cautious with my vote if I survive this day and night,...

Classic mafia tactic--beat the town over the head with the idea that you're pro-town and constantly in danger. It's also a good way to distract a doc into thinking you're a power role. I admit, it's not as great a point as I originally made it out to be, but on top of a general scummy feeling to his posts and logic, as well as other people's points, made it feel more profound at the time.

Also, it seems like everything following this quote was convoluted and confusing, sometimes clouding possibly controversial ideas in an attempt to stay under the radar.

Now that I look back, it's not enough for a vote, but it's plenty to warrant a closer look at SO's posting.

[Gaspode]

Hmm. That's a great role to claim; I could really see Cam using it in this game. It has not been used before (at least by that name), but it has an interesting effect that I think our mod might enjoy.

The thing is, there seem to be too many inconsistencies. For example, the spelling comment brought up by Changling Bob--there have been way too many spelling problems and similar issues in mafia games for you not to have checked your post for that.

I don't like the confirmation idea. There are too many variables, so all that would happen is useless exposure of information without a real confirmation.

Although Changling Bob seems worried about paradoxes, etc., I think almost anything could be resolved for this role, so I wouldn't say that's a major issue.

I need to check the thread for possible relationships between SO and mole, as well as anything else that might look different with this new info. For now, I'll do the same as Bob;

major FOS: SO

[Gaspode]

Sorry, but unforseen difficulties are going to prevent me from posting for about a week. I'll definitely be back by August 1, although hopefully I'll be able to get online before then.

[Gaspode]

Sorry to Someone and everyone else for not posting (although I did mention my busy week at the beginning of the day).

Anyway, I don't like the looks of Someone's claim. As Fishbulb said, it's a little too convenient. Also, this would not only be the perfect claim for scum, but the perfect time for a scum claim. On top of this, "time sage" doesn't seem like something Cam would put in the game. Again, we have the time-cop paradox issue, and all your responses to questions are a little convenient. "My info transcends all the killings and stuff?" And the SO thing--while it makes a lot of sense the way you explain it, it could be all made up.

I need some time to think this over, because Bob is far from perfect himself. Someone's claim just seems too convenient, though.

[Gaspode]

I will claim if everyone agrees a mass claim is a good idea. I'm not sure it's completely needed, as I think it's possible to figure out a decent amount from the thread--if my guesses on role types (i.e. townie/non) are correct, it's just about separating the good non-townies from the bad. But if Fishbulb and Bob agree it would help the town (obviously Someone and Nox do), then I'll be glad to join in.

Also, something I meant to point out to Bob before: Nox's vote wasn't that dangerous, as there are no instantaneous lynches in this game. You don't need to worry until the deadline gets close (I suggest we PM for an extension).

And the convenience of Someone's claim was not about the lynch setup (although that seemed to be an added bonus). It was more the timing and type of claim. The role is pretty much unconfirmable, and first thing today was the

perfect

time for scum to claim, because it puts all the pressure on everyone else (especially late in the game like this).

And if everyone actually did trust you, you would have two days and nights to live, since your scenario only requires one of Fishbulb or Bob to be scum. The vig situation is not likely--if a vig believes you now, you'll probably survive the night.

By the way, Someone, can you find me somewhere mathcam has implied that he's "been trying to incorporate an investigative role" into a Time Travel Mafia? I briefly looked, and he seemed to think that this type of game was better off without them.

[Gaspode]

I will claim if everyone agrees a mass claim is a good idea. I'm not sure it's completely needed, as I think it's possible to figure out a decent amount from the thread--if my guesses on role types (i.e. townie/non) are correct, it's just about separating the good non-townies from the bad. But if Fishbulb and Bob agree it would help the town (obviously Someone and Nox do), then I'll be glad to join in.

Also, something I meant to point out to Bob before: Nox's vote wasn't that dangerous, as there are no instantaneous lynches in this game. You don't need to worry until the deadline gets close (I suggest we PM for an extension).

And the convenience of Someone's claim was not about the lynch setup (although that seemed to be an added bonus). It was more the timing and type of claim. The role is pretty much unconfirmable, and first thing today was the

perfect

time for scum to claim, because it puts all the pressure on everyone else (especially late in the game like this).

And if everyone actually did trust you, you would have two days and nights to live, since your scenario only requires one of Fishbulb or Bob to be scum. The vig situation is not likely--if a vig believes you now, you'll probably survive the night.

By the way, Someone, can you find me somewhere mathcam has implied that he's "been trying to incorporate an investigative role" into a Time Travel Mafia? I briefly looked, and he seemed to think that this type of game was better off without them.

[Gaspode]

I keep going back to how Someone played this. Why reveal all so suddenly? Why not see where the town is going before trying to push us in a direction? I was all ready to vote for Changling bob anyway.

Exactly. That's why I'm so doubtful about the claim. The correct play probably would have been to see if one of the two in question could be lynched without a claim, and then using the info if it were needed. Claiming at the start of the day just seems like scum's way of establishing a claim before they are under pressure and heavily scrutinized.

[Gaspode]

The thing is, anything is risky for scum at this point. If you wait, you could be pressured into a claim. In that situation, any claim would definitely be seen as either too convenient or too unlikely. If you come out now, it looks like you have no reason to hesitate; nothing to hide. However, you can then have a situation like this, where that one pesky townie (in this case, me) doesn't immediately assume you're telling the truth.

Well, I`ll be honest with you, before Someone`s claim, I would`ve maybe leaned towards Gaspode. However, his name was cleared.

So, even though you think I seemed scummy for some reason (I'd be interested to hear what it is), you're willing to blindly follow Someone and just completely throw out the possibility that he's wrong? I prefer independent thinking, personally, scrutinizing both sides of every argument.

Nox seems really intent on having a mass claim. Am I the only one who thinks this isn't completely necessary yet? I think we have enough discussion for now. If you can give a good reason for a mass claim, I'll go along with it, but I don't see the need yet.

[Gaspode]

The thing is, anything is risky for scum at this point. If you wait, you could be pressured into a claim. In that situation, any claim would definitely be seen as either too convenient or too unlikely. If you come out now, it looks like you have no reason to hesitate; nothing to hide. However, you can then have a situation like this, where that one pesky townie (in this case, me) doesn't immediately assume you're telling the truth.

Well, I`ll be honest with you, before Someone`s claim, I would`ve maybe leaned towards Gaspode. However, his name was cleared.

So, even though you think I seemed scummy for some reason (I'd be interested to hear what it is), you're willing to blindly follow Someone and just completely throw out the possibility that he's wrong? I prefer independent thinking, personally, scrutinizing both sides of every argument.

Nox seems really intent on having a mass claim. Am I the only one who thinks this isn't completely necessary yet? I think we have enough discussion for now. If you can give a good reason for a mass claim, I'll go along with it, but I don't see the need yet.

[Gaspode]

True, but any smart scum would claim non-townie anyway. There is no lynch that will give us useful information today. All we can do is hope it ends the game, or at least helps the town.

I think we're hesitating because we're expecting the rest of the town to come up with new ideas. Unfortunately, there are only five of us left, and we've all spoken, so pretty much everything is out there already. We're not going to get much further, I think.

I do have one question I'd like answered, though: we've heard everyone's view on a mass claim--except for Someone. We know he'd support one, but I'd like to know why.

[Gaspode]

Okay, the day is dying. We need progress, and since I really can't see anything that could change my point of view, I think it's time I

vote: Someone

. My reasons are already stated.

[Gaspode]

As Someone said, if Fishbulb had been scum, it would have been to his advantage to vote Someone. I think he's pro-town.

But wouldn't the same hold true for Bob? He hasn't voted Someone either.

By the way, this is all moot because we don't know if we have a serial killer or other non-scum killer. Plus, nothing accounts for the fact that we almost definitely have multiple killing groups (five deaths in three nights). Come to think of it, we are in a really bad position right now.

There are cases in which the only way for the town to win is to No Lynch and hope for rival groups to take each other out (it's happened to me, and I didn't realize it at the time). Perhaps we need to consider that possibility. Then again, if it's two scum and an SK, we need to lynch one scum today. Therefore, I'd say our chances are

probably

better if we lynch.

The last thing I brought up makes me think a mass claim could help us figure out which situation is true. Maybe we should do it. Anyone else think so?

Unfortunately, I'm going away for 11 days starting tomorrow at 5:00AM, so this is my last post. If I can get on while I'm away, I will, but don't count on it. If a replacement is absolutely necessary, go ahead and get one. I'd much prefer to finish the game, but I'd hate to ruin it too. My vote will stay on Someone for now.

[Gaspode]

Unfortunately, I'm going away for 11 days starting tomorrow at 5:00AM, so this is my last post. If I can get on while I'm away, I will, but don't count on it. If a replacement is absolutely necessary, go ahead and get one. I'd much prefer to finish the game, but I'd hate to ruin it too. My vote will stay on Someone for now.

Sorry for not posting, but I did warn you.

I don't have time to post anything good now, as I just got back and can't really function right now.

[Gaspode]

Well, it looks like we've got a 50-50 chance to win here.

I'd like to hear Fishbulb claim before I do anything more. I will claim as soon as I can after that, but I don't want him to have anything more on which to base his claim if he's scum.

After that, I think I'll simply have to do some re-reading to make sure my decision is correct, and then we can end this thing.

[Gaspode]

Ok, in case anyone cares, I am a townie as well. Ironically enough, I also sent my time shield to Night 2. Not that any of that matters much, but I did promise to claim.

I've got a tough choice to make. Since the whole game rides on this decision, I will probably need a couple of days to reread. At this point, it might have to come down to pre-Someone-claim stuff. Feel free to make more arguments for your cases. I'm leaning toward voting Fishbulb, but it is by no means definite yet.

[Gaspode]

Yeah, Cam basically summed up my post. I've been working 9:30-12:15 a twenty-minute drive away, then going to band camp (yeah, bring on the jokes) from about 12:45 to 9:45 all week, where I have to keep 120 kids my age in line and help teach them an entire marching band show from scratch. Needless to say, I've been pretty beat. Anyway, sorry for quitting on you, and good job to the town for finishing off what I never got to do. Funny how, although I thought I was playing a good game, I basically misguessed every mafia until the last day, when I had a 50-50 shot and a reasonably obvious choice (and even then, I disappeared before sealing the deal). Oh well.

Thanks to Cam for putting up with all of us (especially me).