Mini 848 - Second String Muppets Mafia - Game Over.

[MonkeyMan576]

Vote: Elvis_knits

I'm a roll blocker, I blocked Elvis, there was no night kill. Anyone else see what I'm getting at?

Two things:

1: It's LYLO and no reason this couldn't be a gambit.
2: Scum can do math too and likely decided not to oblige with an NK to narrow the field.

What that means is that you are either pulling a gambit, or if you are a roleblocker, it doesnt mean Elvis is guilty because it makes just as much sense for scum to no kill.

Once again Monkey is making no effort, at all. This is pretty easy to reason out, and he didn't even bother trying before throwing down a vote in LYLO.

Snix can reason out the same thing, but I see no reason why he should hide this information if indeed a roleblocker. No reason not to try the gambit as tomorrow is LYLO also even if we guess right today. His lack of a vote following his pronouncement was a plus, but my feeling is that a scumSnix would also be cautious with that vote. Neutral on Snix's opening play today.

I'd prefer if we see the results of my vote before you call my play bad.

Thank you.

[Ectomancer]

I'd prefer if you were worth a bear squat in the woods. You voted me twice...remember? I don't need to see the result of that. I already know what it would be. Even if you are town and happen to place a vote on scum at some point, you certainly wont accomplish it through any actual effort on your part.

How about some real analyzing and work from you?

Thank you.

[MonkeyMan576]

I'd prefer if you were worth a bear squat in the woods. You voted me twice...remember? I don't need to see the result of that. I already know what it would be. Even if you are town and happen to place a vote on scum at some point, you certainly wont accomplish it through any actual effort on your part.

How about some real analyzing and work from you?

Thank you.

It's an easy play for me. We vote elvis and if he's scum, yay, and if not, we vote snix for lying. One or the other is probably scum. And don't think my scum vibes on you have subsided, I'm guessing you're the third mafia.

[elvis_knits]

Are you not paying attention or are you scum?

It's probably lylo. We lynch right today or we lose. We can't do this "lynch elvis and if she's town lynch snix." Nevermind the possibility that neither of us are scum.

[Ectomancer]

Click here. It's for you. http://www.suvi.org/funstuff/slapit.html

We vote Elvis and he's town we lose. There wont BE a chance to vote Snix for lying, and this has already been pointed out to you. What exactly is your problem? How about actually putting some THOUGHT to the game? If you can't be bothered, ask for a replacement.

Here's the math for today:

4 town - 2 scum
Lynch town today that leaves 3 town - 2 scum, NK tonight and game is over. Town loses.


The optimal play today would be to lynch neither Elvis nor Snix and hit the 3rd mafia member. If Elvis is scum, Snix will block him. if Snix is scum, he cant kill without clearing Elvis. We hit scum today, we will not be in LYLO tomorrow if Snix or Elvis is the other scum, and so will be able afforded the opportunity to try them both if necessary.
Now, if

neither

Elvis or Snix is scum, then we go from a 33% chance of hitting scum to a 50% chance (or in my and one other case a 66% chance).


So Snix and Elvis are safe from lynch possibility today in my book. Any disagreements? You better back it with logic and not Monkey's usual "I don't like it".

That leaves us:

Ectomancer
Monkey
Jordan/Kiku
Ekim

I don't need a re-read to know why Monkey is a good lynch.
I need to do some meta-work on Jordan. He's not a bad lynch.
I need to read Ekim. My general impression has been town who could be lurkish scum.

Oh yes, mass claim. We need to get it done too.

I'm Sweetums. A loveable, scary, yet vanilla ex-car jack.

[MonkeyMan576]

You're assuming snix isn't a roleblocker. If he is and elvis is scum, then there won't be a nk if elvis tries to kill again.

Of course, there's the possibility of the other scum doing the kill...

I'm not opposed to going after the third mafia, the thing is I suspect it's ecto. Just because someone has sound mafia theory skills doesn't mean they're not scum.

[Ectomancer]

If Elvis is scum, Snix will block him.

I don't think I missed anything in the Snix/Elvis option, but poke holes if they are there.

You're right, sound mafia skills don't mean anything. You have to look to motivation and actions during periods of opportunity.

[elvis_knits]

I'm Camilla the Chicken. I'm vanilla.

[MonkeyMan576]

Already claimed...

[Ectomancer]

Kiku and Ekim, if you would claim please.

[kikuchiyo]

Vanilla. My name is "Lew Zealand". I have a boomerang fish act.

[Snix]

So I'm claiming last? Seems good to me.

[ekiM]

I'm Pops, vanilla.

I'm out of the house literally all day today. I may be able to post on lunch, otherwise tomorrow morning.

[ekiM]

I'm Pops, vanilla.

I'm out of the house literally all day today. I may be able to post on lunch, otherwise tomorrow morning.

[Ectomancer]

Alrighty Snix, full reveal of who you targeted, etc.

[Ectomancer]

C'mon. Got stuff to say but would like to wrap up this section before moving on to the next.

[Snix]

Night one was Ecto, I was still suspicious of you

Night Two was EL; if he was fake claiming and was instead scum he'd either be trying to kill someone or, if I asked the next day what his Result was that night he'd have to lie and I'd know.

Night three was Elvis_Knits; her and monkey attacked me viciously yesterday I was suspicious

[Snix]

quick question to all, how many scum do you think are in this game?

[Ectomancer]

Confirmed Vig to account for extra kills and standard balance would call for 2 scum left. I don't know if EL thought he was so smart he faked a guilty on DDD, I don't know him well enough. I didnt see anything about sanity either (though not sure if we would know until after game). Thing is, I still don't know what scum role could be responsible for a cop getting a false guilty, unless they can do some kind of redirect and gambled that EL would investigate town. Even though I cant imagine what it might be, it is almost certain that scum has 2 power roles, 1 likely a godfather to counter the cop, and then...a redirector to counter the roleblocker/watcher? And what exactly was the town janitor? That would make 5 town power roles. Quite a lot, but could be explained with some missing scum roles, and the fact that a compulsive Vig is neither plus town, nor plus scum. It's just swingy. I also don't know what a town janitor could be, and might not be exactly a pro-town role either if it blocks reveals. We could simply have been lucky the janitor died night 1. Beginning to ramble a bit here...

Ok, going to go through and look at some things. There is one very obvious issue with the claims, but I already noticed it earlier, and already evaluated and know what I intend to do there. Anyone else know what it is?

[Ectomancer]

Don't everyone speak at once. Mass claim and all is done, and don't be waiting around to see what I have to say about the rest of the things I'm going to look at. It's do or die now.

[kikuchiyo]

I will try and get this read tonight. I don't see the "obvious issue", but I am also not caught up.

[Ectomancer]

Alright, I've made my preliminary choice of who to lynch and also reasons why I decided against the other two.

If you disagree with not lynching Snix and Elvis, please speak out. My opinion on this is that Snix is not playing a gambit, asking us to lynch Elvis and hoping we lynch neither. If you believe there are only 3 scum in a 12 player game (as I do), then you can see that I would not be involved in the gambit myself except unwittingly, and I cannot believe at all that Snix would have expected me to call to spare them both. I think I already pointed out the statistical advantages to sparing them as well.

[Snix]

I personally would like to hear everyone else's takes on the number of scum left. Granted in a 12 player game 3 scum might be normal but nothing else about this game has been normal, why the number of scum?

This information is crucial to determining if we are infact in lylo or not.

[MonkeyMan576]

I'm still for the Elvis lynch, and Ecto is my second choice.

[kikuchiyo]

I would certainly bank on two scum still alive, solely based off the fact that town has five(one alleged) power roles and the only dead scum is vanilla. Not sure if my mind will change on my read through, but I think it would be foolish to assume anything less. due to kill flavor, though, I would assume the actual tally is one scum, one sk. Unless someone took credit for the blowings up?

Without the read through, Monkey looks like the safest lynch. He is certainly the most anti-town.