Mini 862 ~ Mafia of Order (Game Over!)

[Locke Lamora]

Vote: VP Baltar

for suggesting that we don't use up too many posts in forming a wagon and then posting three times himself. Also, what's scummy about wanting to hear post counts?

[Locke Lamora]

First of all, outguessing the mod in this game is a terrible idea. Nobody should be doing it.

VP: no, you pointed out what you thought the advantages for scum were of claiming post counts early. I don't think you gave a balanced view of the advantages and disadvantages of claiming, you just said it all favours scum and then voted Cobalt for being eager to know numbers. Do you think that the advantages for town stated by Cobalt are simply incorrect? Also, how do you reconcile Cobalt being a VI with the strong doubts you express at the end of 78 about the softclaims?

Cobalt: why did you claim as quickly as you did?

[Locke Lamora]

Cobalt and Sens should stop arguing over Micaiah and third parties. It's not getting us anywhere and it's wasting posts. The speculation is pointless and it's turning into a circular theory debate.

Fuzzy: your vote on VP seems to be based on his aggressive playstyle. Do you think that being 'quick to judge' is a scumtell? Where, specifically, have you found VP's approach to be scummy, other than his remarks about you?

DTMaster: what do you mean, 'if Cobalt's claim is true'? If we knew whether Cobalt's claim was true or not, I think it would make voting a much easier decision. Is Cobalt definitely town for you?

[Locke Lamora]

Cobalt: the win condition for the mafia is kill all other factions? Specifically that wording?

Juls: why were you interested in seeing whether others saw the same thing as you were seeing with DTMaster? Would it have led you to vote for him if they did?

[Locke Lamora]

I'm not going to be around until Monday so this will be my last post before deadline. I believe Cobalt's claim at this stage and I think DDD's playing differently to when I've played with him as scum before; I think he contributed a lot more as scum. I certainly don't consider there to be enough to go on for a lynch at this stage. I don't like Saberwolf's vote on DDD at all; he doesn't even give any reasons other than 'he's the only one left'. I'm getting enough pro-town vibes off VP lately compared to what I've seen of him in the past to go for Saber over him.

Unvote; Vote: Saberwolf

[Locke Lamora]

Mod: will be V/LA until Monday.

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry guys, have been slipping behind on the site in general. Will be catching up as soon as I can. I also gained 7 posts overnight.

VP: you only gained 2 posts?

[Locke Lamora]

Not sure what to make of Cobalt's claim right now, but I think it's more likely that she was roleblocked than fakeclaimed the post ability.

Saber's vote on me is pretty opportunistic and I would also like to know how I became top suspect ahead of Sens.

I don't like KMD's vote-hopping close to deadline. His suspicion of DDD was basically gut and the way he tried to dissuade people from voting DDD then hopped on him twice near deadline smells of opportunistic scum to me.

I'm also getting more and more dubious of Sens' obsession with Cobalt. I agree that Micaiah does not automatically make her town but a substantial amount of his contributions have basically been 'lynch Cobalt' and I get the impression he's now going to think everything she does points to her being scum. His reaction to her being roleblocked indicates this; in the context of her losing posts to give to others, being told that her roleblock failed makes perfect sense.

Unvote; Vote: KMD

[Locke Lamora]

All I can say about not posting enough is that I haven't been able to get on the site much and that I'm in too many games for the amount of time I can get online. It doesn't look like I'm going to get a KMD lynch now and I dislike Cobalt's vote-hopping and her inconsistent reasons for doing so, which leads me to:

unvote; Vote: Cobalt

I will endeavour to get back online and claim later if I'm going to be put at L-1. As we're this close to deadline I agree that lynching me is preferable to a no-lynch and I understand why people think I'm active lurking, so all I can really do at this stage is apologise for that.

[Locke Lamora]

I believe that's L-1; I am Janaff, the right wing of Hawk King Tibarn. I have 3 1-shot abilities under the title of Insight - character name, role name and post count. My post count restriction is 60. My voice of Yune says 'I wonder how much the post count restriction matters anyway?'

[Locke Lamora]

No, each one is an individual investigation. I can find out a character name one night, a role name one night and I've already investigated Saber's post count because the way he claimed it sounded dodgy to me, but he did indeed start the game with a restriction of 50. I'll investigate whoever people would like investigated for either of the other two tonight.

[Locke Lamora]

I'll wait until massclaim happens (if it does today) before I reveal my result.

I fully support a Sens lynch. I thought the tunnelling on Cobalt was just townie stubbornness early on but the complete refusal to acknowledge any reasonable points concerning her and the persistent 'LYNCH LYNCH LYNCH' posts have convinced me that he doesn't have pro-town motives. I can see Sens/DTM/Fuzzy as a scumteam right now.

[Locke Lamora]

DTM: how does it make sense to claim anything now? If I reveal my result now, everyone else who has yet to claim will feel more comfortable about fakeclaiming. If I wait and we go through massclaim, all the players who have yet to claim will have to act more cautiously in case I have investigated them.

Saber: you want to lynch Fuzzy because of his voice of Yune and then massclaim tomorrow? What's your theory if Fuzzy flips town?

[Locke Lamora]

I've taken a look back over SensFan's posts. Here's a brief summary of their content:

Posts 1-19: Lynch Cobalt/speculation over third party win condition
Posts 20-22: Attack on Saber (for his attack on Sens and acceptance of the Cobalt claim) and subsequent vote (twice)
Posts 23-25: Lynch Cobalt

I'm happy to lynch Sens but if we're going to do massclaim, I'll wait for that before I vote. DTM's attempt to get me to reveal my result early has also set alarm bells ringing in my head with a team featuring Sens/DTM looking very possible to me right now.

[Locke Lamora]

I'm going to be away from home until Thursday night so I will probably only be able to post once or twice until then. I will be back before deadline and as I've already claimed everything about my role except my latest result, I've not got much to say during massclaim. I'm not sure why my votes are considered particularly good by KMD and I'd also like him or Sens to go first if massclaim does take place.

[Locke Lamora]

Right, I'll try and address everything directed at me and hopefully I won't miss anything. I apologise for missing more time and the deadline yesterday; I had no internet access at all when I expected to have some and I was unable to get online until Friday afternoon.

First of all, results: I investigated DTM's role name N2 and it is Duelist. I investigated Sens' character name last night which is obviously now pointless.

As to the specifics of my claim: my role name is Townie Watcher, Role COAT. The right wing part is what it says following the bolded part of my PM, along with the information that I am one of the last Hawks able to fight following Kilvas' betrayal. As to why I claimed in the format I did, I don't really know what you want me to say there. VP's right that I don't know the flavour of this game; I looked at my PM and gave my character name and role specifics. I didn't put a whole lot of thought into the format.

Regarding my still being alive: I'm the first to admit I haven't been of much use in this game and I've also been under suspicion for a lot of it. That's as good a reason to leave me alive as any. Not only that, but I suspect that if the mafia were worried about me outing them as having fakeclaimed, they would have killed me. With everyone having claimed now, I would guess that everyone has claimed their genuine character and role name. None of the role names have been obviously anti-town and looking at the wiki, none of the character names seem to be either. I would suggest that basing anything on flavour (such as Fuzzy's attempt to do so with Ranulf) is thus entirely pointless. I'm also under the impression that with characters and roles not obviously anti-town, my role is fairly weak as PRs go, particularly once I claimed.

DTM: Yesterday I thought you were suggesting I come forward with my result

if I already had an effective guilty

. I think I interpreted you correctly there. My point was that whoever had not already claimed had to think very carefully about what they said during massclaim because I hadn't revealed. If I had revealed, everyone else claiming would have known which of my abilities had already been used and what they were safe to fakeclaim. In addition, what was the point of me revealing my result before massclaim even if I had a guilty?

I think that responds to everything today. Will now be rereading and responding to anything else and posting my own suspicions.

[Locke Lamora]

I'm working on an analysis of each player but in the meantime, I'm interested in hearing about a few things:

KMD: why the insistence on defending me? Can you clarify exactly why my Saber and Cobalt votes were good?

VP: any thoughts on why you are still alive? Are you still convinced Goat is town?

Saber: if there is a third party, got any thoughts on who it is?

[Locke Lamora]

I've been doing a lot of rereading and collecting my thoughts on every player. It's taking a lot of time because I haven't been keeping up with this game very well but I'm going to go ahead and post what I'm done with so far so people can respond/analyse/whatever.

ACSN/Saber: ACSN makes an early push on VP and votes Cobalt later. Seems to get quite frustrated very quickly and bails. I don't like Saber's classic AtE complaining about how he always gets lynched D1 and always flips town. I still have no idea why he voted for me, which he basically explained as 'if Sens can vote without reasons, so can I'. Also strange is his suggestion to lynch Fuzzy based on his voice of Yune being about PRs being independent of alignment. He didn't really follow this up at all afterwards and I don't think it would have achieved much. The other thing that gives me a slightly scummy feel is that earlier in the game he was making reference to having used up a lot of his posts; now he's making posts like the last one, which basically says nothing that I couldn't have told you myself with nothing else of use besides. All in all, I find a few things about saber strange or slightly scummy but I'm not getting a big scum read off him.

DTMaster: I get the impression a lot of people have uncertain reads on DTM. He uses a lot of votes to pressure people into action (ISO 3,6 and 10, DDD, ACSN and KMD votes being prime examples) which strikes me as moving his vote around without actually doing much with it. There's also something I don't like about his flavour references, such as his 'Town Sniper' comment; I don't think flavour is something to be relied on for evidence here and there's also an element of outguessing the mod going on. I'm not really sure what we're even arguing about with this whole claiming results pre/post mass-claim now. I feel like his push to get me to reveal if I had a guilty was a way for him to tell whether I had one or not and I'm very dubious about his motivation in that whole situation. I'm uneasy about a Fuzzy-DTM connection in particular right now as they each seem to have drifted through this game without really saying much about the other.

[Locke Lamora]

KMD: it's hard to say much about his earlier posts now but his vote-hopping on DDD was pretty scummy. On the posts he has made, the 'Ok, I suck' opener reads fake to me and his reasons for thinking I'm town are weak, as is his initial reasoning on a Fuzzy neutral read instead of scum read, although he later attributes this to Fuzzy's PR claim. It doesn't look like that was part of the initial thinking; it looks like VP calls him on the poor Fuzzy reasoning and KMD then attributes that read to his PR claim. He's been defending me rather enthusiastically and I don't really think my play has warranted that defence so I'm struggling to think of a pro-town reason for it aside from the fact VP is after me and he thinks VP is scum.

More to come as I finish my reread.

EBWOP: in my previous post, I referred to Saber's last post; I meant 431, not 433.

[Locke Lamora]

Oh, and as people seemed confused by this: my PM just said Role COAT. I wasn't told what COAT stands for but I assume it's cop-of-all-trades.

[Locke Lamora]

VP: the most active scumhunter throughout this game and I haven't found a great deal scummy about him since his early attack on Cobalt. The main problem I have with him is WIFOM-y as hell, and that's the fact he's still alive. I agree that scum NK choices don't seem to make a whole lot of sense this game, particularly Sens last night, but something about a town-VP still being here on D4 doesn't sit right with me. Putting the WIFOM aside, I find his play pro-town and I think the manner in which he has led the scumhunting matches up with when I've played with him as town before.

To respond to VP directly: I claimed the way I did because that's the information I selected when I read my PM. I don't think everyone has claimed in exactly the same format anyway but yes, the way I did was different. I put out what I thought was relevant information for people to assess my claim and I didn't include Townie Watcher and Role COAT; there was no conscious decision to leave that out for any specific reason. As far as I can see, your problem with this really rests on Goat's information about the 3 fakeclaims and the fact that Cobalt had one, so one of the scum, if there is a 3-man team, must not.

Fuzzy: managed to contribute about as much as me to this game, which I'm not in a great position to criticise him for. I'm not sure why anyone would accept his PR as inherently pro-town just because it gives every player posts; it could easily be a scum or a neutral role. I feel like he's often paraphrased what other players have said, particularly in giving reasons for votes: e.g. saying Cobalt acts as though Micaiah is confirmed town and saying Sens was just tunnelling on Cobalt the whole time. It's difficult for me not to sound like a hypocrite when I'm talking about lack of contributions but I really get the impression he's not even trying to offer anything new to the game. His weak flavour-based attempt to try and group Sens and myself together as scum because of our characters also reads scummy to me. As mentioned previously, I see a DTM-Fuzzy connection as very possible.

[Locke Lamora]

Goat: not really sure what to make of him right now. His early play in particular was very pro-town and cut through a lot of nonsense, especially his dismantling of Sens' attack on Cobalt. He seems to decline in activity and content following the DDD lynch, although his posting is still logical and useful, such as his reaction to VP's suggestion to me about investigations. He then starts to waver in his suspicions, basically because he's still alive, and says he's lacking in town reads, other than Saber. It's a similar 'why is he still alive?' WIFOM situation, much like VP.

As a general note: Both Fuzzy and Goat's absence appears to be legitimate rather than lurking as neither have posted since Thursday.

Conclusions: I definitely like the Fuzzy-DTM connection. Neither Fuzzy nor KMD's claims are inherently pro-town and I don't think they should be treated as such by anyone, as has been done up to this point. I think DTM could be using his 'flavour expert' position to give off townie vibes and the way he enquired after my result before massclaim just gives me the impression of scum trying to figure out if I'd pegged one of the team. I can sort of see where KMD is coming from by calling my votes good but his general defence of me just gives me scum vibes and he's one of the aforementioned defenders of Fuzzy based on his claim. Saber I could see going either way and I can see scumbuddy potential with Fuzzy but I wouldn't want to lynch him right now. Goat and VP I just get into endless WIFOM wondering why they're still here and the likes of Sens are dead and I'm getting fairly strong town reads from both so I'm going to stick with that.

SCUM
Fuzzy
KMD
DTM
Saber
Goat
VP
TOWN

I don't know if there's much point voting Fuzzy at this stage if he's going to get modkilled but he's definitely my favoured lynch and the common denominator of any scumteam I think likely.

Mod: can I get one of those double posts deleted?

Done. ~Vi

[Locke Lamora]

Good point about the modkill. Let's definitely treat it as though Friday is the deadline and then we avoid that problem.

DTM: my point is that you and Fuzzy don't really seem to have looked at each other critically

at all

. Now you're doing a little bit of 'Fuzzy, you're not posting, contribute' but it's not exactly aggressive scumhunting.

[Locke Lamora]

DTM: if the WIFOM around the voice of Yune think is sending you round in circles, why not forget it completely? What I do know is that Fuzzy must be telling the truth about his ability because we all keep getting 7 posts. Fuzzy's Voice of Yune is WIFOM-y to the point of being irrelevant. Regardless of alignment, Fuzzy almost certainly thought about the same WIFOM before he claimed it. How is it counter-productive if, by claiming it in conjunction with his role, he's actually made you think he's not scum? That sounds like very productive for scum to me.

I believe you would agree with the following:
-his role is proven.
-giving posts to everyone is not a guaranteed pro-town role.
-his vote patterns have been scummy.

If you leave aside the Yune WIFOM, what's your conclusion?

[Locke Lamora]

Goat: can we actually get a claim from you?

[Locke Lamora]

By others do you mean Goat and Fuzzy, Saber? As far as I can see, VP, DTM, KMD and myself have all given their thoughts on a Fuzzy lynch.

As seems to be apparent from Vi's comment, Fuzzy will be modkilled if we get into the last day. I think 2100 EST on Saturday is the deadline, which means that unless Fuzzy posts in the next 18 hours, he's getting killed regardless of whether we choose to lynch him. I'll be able to get on regularly for the next 4-5 hours so I'll keep checking if he has posted to change that scenario, but I'm going to vote for him at the end of that time if he hasn't. We really need to hear Goat's claim, thoughts on Fuzzy and the game in general before we end this day.

[Locke Lamora]

The modkill thing? I wasn't actually here, but I think that was a completely different situation. I think you asked about Sens when there was still over 48 hours until modkill. We've now got about 17.

Can you elaborate on why you think I'm scum? One of the reasons you gave for your vote earlier was that you haven't heard my results, which you have now, so has your opinion been affected?

[Locke Lamora]

I agree that my results have been largely useless other than to verify that you and DTM are telling the truth about those respective characteristics. My best bet of getting something really valuable was to catch out someone who claimed before I revealed my abilities and you were the only two players who I had the option on at the time. I'd wager that everyone who claimed since then has probably claimed their genuine names and roles so that I couldn't catch them out.

Something else I find interesting:

although I really feel LL is one of our scum, there is a good chance I suppose fuzzy is the other.

This implies you think there are two scum. You know something we don't?

[Locke Lamora]

I disagree.

Hammertime.

Vote: fuzzylightning

[Locke Lamora]

That went well, scumbuddies who didn't know I existed! I struggled for time at various points in the game but when I finally caught up properly on D4, I basically designed my analysis to support more or less what I thought was VP's scumlist. Not quite sure how I didn't get lynched but I guess I have Sens to thank for at least one of those. Fuzzy really made it easy for us at the end too. I deleted all of KMD's posts because I thought people would be reluctant to lynch anyone who they couldn't reread. With DTM attacking him fairly regularly I also figured people wouldn't have them pegged as the pair and as long as one of them survived, we'd win.

Thanks to Vi for modding, awesome job.

[Locke Lamora]

VP was actually pretty close to the mark about my claim, although he was wrong that I was a scum player without a fakeclaim. I was pressed for time and wanted to get a believable fakeclaim out there that would get a 'I'll give Locke a night to prove himself' type response. I looked up Janaff and decided that his Insight ability was a plausible flavour basis for a type of cop, then combined it with my actual JOAT role. I didn't ask Vi for the actual PM until after I'd claimed in case people came back on me for details but I honestly completely forgot to make the format match the sample or the previous claims. I literally just read 'Janaff, the right wing of Hawk King Tibarn' off my PM and claimed that without thinking about the 'Townie XXXX' part. I found it quite amusing and worrying at the same time when KMD kept defending me, as I assumed he was doing it to appear as though he was protecting a townie and make VP look bad, which obviously would have backfired horribly if I'd been lynched.