Mini 862 ~ Mafia of Order (Game Over!)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote: VP Baltar

I keep trying to figure out how to phrase best my skepticism with VPB's revote, but I think Cobalt's "lol at your vote, VP" might just be the most accurate way of doing that.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm not lynching Cobalt based off what I've seen so far and Sens makes me want to /headdesk until my brains leak from my ears, but he's probably town as well. I'm comfortable with my vote where it is.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I didn’t comment on claiming post counts because frankly it wasn’t worth my time. I see no benefit or detriment to either position because I simply don’t see it coming into play.

I absolutely fail to see how DTMaster’s “plan” that can’t actually happen in anyway confirms Cobalt. I mean it confirms his ability, but it seems like an incredible leap to assume that it’s a pro-town ability.

Incidentally that KMD post is wrong-headed on about every point he addresses. He just completely cherry picks a bunch of pointless quotes and then agrees with Sens which is about the high point of inanity and insanity.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Hey, LL and DDD, do you think I am the best lynch today? If so, please explain why.

I wouldn't be voting for you if I didn't think you were the best lynch right now. Besides my discomfort with your early vote, unvote pattern you simply aren't reading pro-town to me. You say I'm always scum when we play, I saw you're always town and always obvtown at that, the fact that you aren't this game says scum to me.

@DDD/KMD/Goat

To me discussion is invaluable, and Colbalt's post transfering allows protown players to discuss more. Discussion is one of the key weapons for the town. To me you three read as people trying to stop him before we can verify bits of Colbalt's claim.

It's like lynching an uncounter claimed PR, all PR roles should be tested from day 2 onwards.

I've said that I'm not lynching Cobalt today, period, so I don't know why I'm included in this group. Like almost any ability you can come up with, it's not only a town role, so while it'd be nice to confirm the ability it doesn't do much of anything in regards to Cobalt's town/scum issues.

~~~

Not an issue that feels smart to raise, but odd how KMD has gone from I'm scum with gut/meta/connection reasons behind it to saying he won't be voting for me today. I mean I guess from his perspective it makes sense to test the make believe connection between myself and Cobalt, but it certaintly doesn't mesh well with his earlier confidence.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, what makes you think I don't think you are scum anymore? Just the fact that I won't try to run up a last minute wagon that will probably result in a no lynch considering we already have three popular wagons?

I don't think I suggested that; just that you stated pretty definitively that you wouldn't be voting for me despite having the utmost confidence that I'm scum.

Why do people think Saber's posting is protown? Saber is worse than Starry IMO.

Agreed.

~~~

VPB's nonsensical confidence is giving me pause, as is my discomfort with saberwolf. Might push saberwolf ahead of VPB, but I need some time to reread and think about it, I'll come to a decision tonight. I also don't like Sotty either, but she's not a viable lynch today.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

VPB's nonsensical confidence is giving me pause, as is my discomfort with saberwolf. Might push saberwolf ahead of VPB, but I need some time to reread and think about it, I'll come to a decision tonight. I also don't like Sotty either, but she's not a viable lynch today.

Gonna give reasons? Cause if you don't I am going to go with the assumption that it is because I said I would be happy to wagon you today.

Seemed like a pretty good reason at the time, meet fire with fire. Also there was a bit of confusion on my part as it was actually your points against Juls that had me interested earlier and in my head I had flipped you two in my head as you being the suspicious one of the pair.

~~~

VPB did have it right that we should already be at the point of having a serious wagon and a claim to evaluate instead of waiting till the last possible moment. Everyone who isn't on one of the big three wagons really should be at this point with only three days to go.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

If people read him in iso and honestly don't support his lynch at all, then I'm willing to switch later today or tomorrow to saber.

What are your reasons for voting for me again other than the dreadedly nonsensical "he didn't ask questions" and maybe a shallow OMGUS?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

What are your reasons for voting for me again other than the dreadedly nonsensical "he didn't ask questions" and maybe a shallow OMGUS?

First, there is no OMGUS about it. Second, nice attempt to strawman.

I don't suck and it was a nice attempt? You're just full of compliments today VPB.

You have not been scumhunting at all this game, which I know you are perfectly capable of.

Oh certainly I'm capable, I've just found my attempts to do so conventionally in the past are completely ineffectual so I've pretty much ditched that.

You got on my wagon in your first post for reasons that made little sense ("skepticism with VPB's revote") and have coasted ever since that point. You make some mild commentary jabs early on without making any real effort to fish out the scum, and even those fall off as the game progresses.

Dude, you said you should've stuck with your gut in regards to voting Cobalt when your initial vote on Cobalt was the first post in the game. You don't see how that comment doesn't make any sense.

Point me to actual scumhunting you have done if I'm not making a valid case against you.

I offer commentary, I answer questions, I vote. Those things constitute scumhunting to me. Elaborate lines of questiong and digging out other people's logical fallacies don't work for me.

~~~

I did fail to do my usual trend analysis, but we just hit the point where I could yesterday. Sotty, Fuzzylightning, Sens, Juls, and ACSN/Saber all register as highly probable as scum. Logic would suggest that only one of Sotty and Juls is scum though the way they've gone after each other early. You also register as highly probable town along with Cobalt and DTMaster. The numbers don't lie, or at least I hope they don't.

Unvote; Vote: Saberwolf

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD: I'm very curious why VP went from Scum not playing like the Obv-town you know to highly probable town. What caused this swap?

I didn't/wouldn't expect scum-VPB to scum out swinging at me as much as he did which concerned me. And then my trend analysis (which I didn't feel comfortbale running till page 7) showed him as highly probable town with ACSN/Saber showing as far more probable scum.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD: I'm very curious why VP went from Scum not playing like the Obv-town you know to highly probable town. What caused this swap?

I didn't/wouldn't expect scum-VPB to scum out swinging at me as much as he did which concerned me. And then my trend analysis (which I didn't feel comfortbale running till page 7) showed him as highly probable town with ACSN/Saber showing as far more probable scum.

Trend Analysis? I haven't seen you do anything of the sort. You've merely labeled some people as scummy and others as town with no rationale. If that is a trend analysis, then I am pretty good at doing them myself.

Why does your trend analysis show people as town and others as scum? Why weren't you comfortable "running" it until page 7? Why wouldn't VP-scum swing at you as much as he has done?

Just because I don't post every minor detail doesn't mean it's not done. There are certain behavioral trends that correlate highly with scum and town. I use an exact statistical formula for newbie games where I originally developed the concept, but I apply the general ideas to mini games as well. Essentially I'm looking for outliers who are more likely to be town than scum and I'm looking for certain incongruous behaviors among the non-outliers who are more likely to be scum. I don't run the analysis until page 7 because it takes time for certain pattern to emerge so you're not just grabbing a single snapshot of where a certain player was V/LA or some other aberration.

I'm not going to get more detailed then that because doing so is like explaining why you have a meta read on someone, it loses its effectiveness thereafter.

Well it's certainly not the behavior I would take as scum and I generally think VPB and I think along the same lines. I wouldn't have considered myself a big threat as someone without a lot of posts who wasn't pushing hard and was already getting grief from other players. Hence there's not as much scum need to try and build a wagon when he could've dismissed or ignored and continued to attack Cobalt and/or ACSN/Saber.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Well it's certainly not the behavior I would take as scum and I generally think VPB and I think along the same lines. I wouldn't have considered myself a big threat as someone without a lot of posts who wasn't pushing hard and was already getting grief from other players. Hence there's not as much scum need to try and build a wagon when he could've dismissed or ignored and continued to attack Cobalt and/or ACSN/Saber.

You're voting ACSN/Saber, presumably based on your opinion that he's scum. I don't understand why VP moving away from Saberwolf to you makes him more likely town. If Saber is scum, then VP as scum would benefit from building a competing wagon instead of letting his scum buddy roast. The idea that VP as scum could have just sat on Saber also revolves around the idea that Saber is town, but yet you think Saber is scum. How does this make sense?

No it would've made more sense to once again come back to the Cobalt wagon he was on earlier in the day anyways, unless of course you're implying that the scum team is VPB/Cobalt/ACSN which would be simultaneously hilarious and awesome and stupidly unlikely.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

No it would've made more sense to once again come back to the Cobalt wagon he was on earlier in the day anyways, unless of course you're implying that the scum team is VPB/Cobalt/ACSN which would be simultaneously hilarious and awesome and stupidly unlikely.

1) After he called Cobalt a VI? How would he justify his spot back on that wagon?

2) I don't think Cobalt/VP/ACSN are the scum team. 3) I also don't think your radical swap on VP from scum to town is genuine.

1) Seriously? You're going to suggest that a competent player like VPB couldn't find his way back onto a major wagon because of a one-liner where he called a player a VI.

2) Hey, me neither, glad we agree.

3) I keep trying to write a response to this point, but none of those responses seem genuine either which is ironing and makes them not terribly useful.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

*Which is ironic.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@KMD...I don't like your post 185 yet again...it feels like you are protecting DDD...partners?

I agree. The opposition to the DDD wagon for no logical explanation irks me big time. You should vote him ASAP, Juls, cause the scum are rushing toward this saberwolf lynch in short order.

The fact that you're driving my wagon with no logical explanation irks me big time. Also the fact that you're trying to entice Sens by stacking my lynch with his prefered future lynch is just incredibly low. If you know your case sucks and you can't secure my lynch without essentially bribing another player just say so. You're already off the hook today and we'll lynch saber who we both know is a proven VI and likely scum.

I am leery of the fact that it is based off of something he came up with in newbie games. The more experienced players are going to more often play better than newbies and this trend analysis could be just like meta in that it can be fairly useless with players who have experience.

Well I agree that if expereienced players knew exactly what I look for they could scheme against that to confuse me, hence why I've been vague with the exact behaviors I look for. That being said it's worked pretty well in the limited cases I've been able to use it so far.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

204: You do realize you are applying a formula derived from newbie games to a normal games. Just as a warning: 3rd party variables and more advanced mafia concepts make trend analysis tougher.

Hence why I just use some of the principles as guidelines as to who is scum and not porting the complete formula over to other formats.

@KMD/DDD about Sabre
Wut? Content < ACSN 1 liners? Explain.

He opens with a bad vote where he conflates stupid or obnoxious play with scummy play and the proceeds to tack on a random reason as well which dilutes any seriousness he originally had. He then votes me not out of real conviction that I'm scum, but simply because I'm available as not him, he's taking the path of least resistance.

@DDD
Just noticed. Cleared VP because he didn't go for an easy bandwagon on ACSN/Sabre. But wouldn't that mean you are attacking the easy bandwagon?

Just because it's easy doesn't mean it's wrong, the point is that Saber took the path of least resistance while VPB took what I view as an unneeded chance which suggests more town than scum.

The fact that you're driving my wagon with no logical explanation irks me big time.

I gave legit reasons to be voting you: mega scum coasting. It is funny that immediately after I did that you suddenly had "trend analysis" vaguery that indicated the opposing wagon to you was scum. How convenient.

So, your best reason is playstyle, pretty terrible reason VPB.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

We've got a scummy and useless player claiming vanilla. I am not claiming, make of that what you will. Someone needs to secure the saber lynch before deadline.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

DDD, I'm sorry about your lynch and its probably my only regret in this game. I was just getting antsy Day1 and was really displeased with all of the options presented. It was a hard way to learn about your trend analysis. If we had lynched elsewhere, we would have been much better off and I think you and I could have won this game. Apologies.

It happens, I figure M98 was still prominent in your mind and when I was "undercontributing" on day one you weren't going to let me get away with the same thing, but the more minimalist style (especially on D1) is the way my general play has gone regardless of alignment. And yes the trend analysis is a real thing, but in this game it failed and failed hard anyways so I'm not sure how much help I would've been anyways.

*Vi, I think if you want to run a theme game in terms of flavor then you need to mostly open it up to general signups for people interested in the flavor. If you want to assemble a good/interesting playerlist then you need to generalize the flavor. Despite the good player list and it being mostly fun for me for the time I was alive, I don't think I'd sign up again to this because I have absolutely no connection with the theme/flavor.

*So I decided to go to the grave with the fact that their was a mafia traitor because I thought it benefited scum to know that more than town. Right or wrong?