Open 171- Carbon 14, Part 2!! Over!!

[semioldguy]

/confirm

Sorry, I've been V/LA the past few days due my failure of a motherboard as posted in my other games.

[semioldguy]

I still want the bunny suit.

[semioldguy]

I don't always random vote in my games.

Who was scum last game?

[semioldguy]

Links please.

Feel free to check my wiki. Should be up to date, or close to it, with my completed games.

[semioldguy]

Vote: Snow_Bunny

[semioldguy]

Why only an FoS instead of a vote?

[semioldguy]

@dramonic
Who are you talking about?

[semioldguy]

I don't know what's wrong with just voting/lynching the players that come across as most scummy. How else would people pick a first lynch?

I don't think that Scigatt's reaction to the two quick votes is indicative of his being scum. He didn't seem nearly as concerned about the voting in the previous game when he was scum (until his partner was getting several votes). Even with such little amount to go on from last time, his play here feels different than it did last game. As such, I don't think he is likely scum in this situation, unless he is partners with Snow_Bunny.

[semioldguy]

also, sog's lie about not random voting doesn't really strike me as scummy.

I didn't lie about that.

[semioldguy]

Good catch on the Khamisa-sog, thing. You can count on my support if I don't find something.

Was there any scum discussion between you two during the pregame phase of the last game?

[semioldguy]

Good catch on the Khamisa-sog, thing. You can count on my support if I don't find something.

Was there any scum discussion between you two during the pregame phase of the last game?

Khamisa should feel free to answer this as well.

[semioldguy]

I said I don't

always

random vote.

[semioldguy]

Right. People have to stop being overdramatic about putting someone at L-2. It is not a big deal, period. L-1 deserves scrutiny, and people not paying attention to votecounts certainly does too. But if everyone gets too scared to vote because more than one vote on a person is ohso evil, the game stagnates like whoa.

Putting some at L-2 in the first 3 pages of the game can be a big deal. Yeah, it can be expected with the random votes, but still, it's really unlikely that all of those votes are really

random

.

Since L-2 is only two votes, I don't think it's a very big deal. I'd be surprised if it took very long before a player was at L-2. This game is much smaller than most games, so I don't think the ame mindset regarding an L-2 wagon applies.

L-1 wagons are probably more dangerous though, especially early on, as a potential quick mislynch would be extremely helpful to scum, even if one of them is potentially outted with the lynch. As town we only have one mislynch before we lose.

[semioldguy]

Oh, I'll be away for the computer for most of Friday. In case there's a lynch and I don't make it to D2, I'd just like to say that if we lynch scum or get a guilty investigation result, the 'useless' investigator should claim, so we can narrow down lynch options.

The investigators should claim anyway, even if we lynch an innocent, since we will be in lylo tomorrow in that case.

[semioldguy]

A modification to the above would be that in mass claim time an investigator claims merely that he is an investigator and does not reveal which type of investigator he is unless we have three investigator claims. This way scum wouldn't know which of the claimed investigators to kill on night two and have a 50/50 chance of killing the wrong one.

[semioldguy]

Unvote; Vote: Khamisa

FoS:

Snow_Bunny

You need to put your votes somewhere and come up with suspects. You are both coasting through this game for the most part, which I find suspicious. It makes it easy to ride on the tails of the ideas of town without having to put yourself out there. For both of you, who are your top two suspects. The both of you are mine.

[semioldguy]

I don't like dramonic's pushing of you either, especially since I find you the most likely town player based on your play this game and also your play this game in comparison to the previous one in which you were scum. You just don't feel at all the same now as you did in the other game.

@dramonic
You seemed to have been starting to pick up on Scigatt's scum vibes the last game, what are you picking up from him now along those same lines and if your find him scummy in both games would you mind making a comparison?

[semioldguy]

Well, surely you shouldn't need to be insisted upon to have suspicions. Out with them!

[semioldguy]

I really do not buy into dramonic's case at all. Between the two of them dramonic both looks more scummy and scigatt's case makes more sense. I can't shake the feeling that scigatt's play this time around feels different than last time. dramonic's insistence that the two games are similar puzzles me, as I don't think he has sufficiently pointed out why hey are similar to each other or what makes them similar. It does seem like misrepresentation to me. dramonic, I would like a better explanation/analysis of your case and why you think scigatt's scum tells from last game are apparent in this one as well, because I just don't see them.

@Khamisa
You still haven't committed to much, which I find a little suspicious. I don't have a case other than that per se, but there isn't a whole lot of content from you to develop an opinion one way or the other. Your refused to answer as to who you are suspicious of is noted and slightly scummy as well. What is your opinion of Cass?

@Cass
See my comments above toward Khamisa. Most of that applies to you too, as there is little you have taken a stand on in this game. Which players/cases do you agree with (if any) and which players/cases do you disagree with? Your vote on Khamisa is hypocritical at best, and scummy at worst. Do you still like your vote where it is?

[semioldguy]

Is feeling better going to happen within the next 24 hours? Because that's when our deadline is.

@Mod:

If Cass needs to be replaced can we get a deadline extension until the replacement is found?

[semioldguy]

Also, I find the fact that Khamisa has continued to defend dramonic even when they were the only two plausible lynches perplexing. The only semi-rational explanation I can think of is that they are scum partners, but I find it unlikely that things lined up so well for town and even if that is the case and Khamisa is scum-partners with dramonic, it's a really bad strategy she is using.

Another explanation that'd I'd see for this, that I didn't realize until you put it this way, is that Khamisa is town and honestly sees dramonic as town also (whether she is right or wrong is irrelevant to my point)

In one of my Newbie games I replaced in as one of the two top suspects near and impending lynch (much like our situation now). I was town, and I did not find the other lynch target to be scummy at all and was confident he was not scum. They lynched him anyway, instead of me, and I was right. I easily could have been wrong though. Other stuff with Khamisa doesn't necessarily add up though

@Khamisa
Why do you have no suspicions?

@Cass
How is that read coming along?

@Snow_Bunny
You have been recently quiet as well. Are you feeling better? You still haven't placed a vote.

@Alduskkel
Do you think they could likely be scumbuddies? (Khamisa and dramonic)

I like the players on dramonic's wagon much better than Khamisa's. Alduskkel and Scigatt are two players I see as likely town and I am wary of both of the other players on the Khamisa wagon.

I also don't really like Snow_Bunny potentially having the deciding vote. She has been somewhat non-committal and also has much less presence in the game now than she had earlier. Her play seems to have changed the most from the previous game.

[semioldguy]

Unvote

I'll have a vote down well before deadline. Tomorrow morning when I wake up.

[semioldguy]

Why are the males the only active players in this game?

[semioldguy]

Vote: Khamisa

[semioldguy]

I am actually leaning more toward Cass, but don't think there is enough time to feasibly change the lynch to her and even if we do I'd prefer to have enough time to see how she reacts to votes on her, which we won't have time for before deadline.

[semioldguy]

Unvote, Vote: Cass

[semioldguy]

Hey, why'd you go from sounding like you preferred dramonic in 165 to voting Khamisa in 174?

when did I sound like I preferred dramonic? I don't prefer him.

[semioldguy]

Maybe your right, I'm a little inebriated at the moment.

My 177 was thinking that maybe there was time to get a reaction anyway, but there probably isn't. The only people who seem to be here are the same ones who have been here all along and seem pretty town to me. Of course explaining that as I voted would have made it pointless, but maybe it wasn't a very good idea anyway.

[semioldguy]

Oh, my vote's still on Cass.

Unvote, Vote: Khamisa

[semioldguy]

V/LA for a few days.

I am at the hospital right now, had a really bad back muscle spasm, but they've got me drugged up and feeling better and I'm hoping they send me home within a day or two.

[semioldguy]

I am not the Cop.

I am more suspicious of Snow_Bunny than I am of Alduskkel. She has been quiet most of the game and the removal of her vote from Khamisa, even though it was a random vote, didn't really come with a reason or a vote somewhere else and it seemed as she was just making an excuse to get her vote off.

When the vote starts swinging more toward Khamisa and away from dramonic vs. Scigatt, Snow_Bunny becomes even more quiet. Yes, she was sick, but toward deadline this was surely not the case as Alduskkel noted. I would really like to hear more detailed thoughts from her on the two of us.

The strongest point I see against Alduskkel is that he could not have prevented Khamisa's lynch. Not too sure what to think of the fact that he brought it up himself first, but speculation on that likely won't help.

Vote: Snow_Bunny

@Snow_Bunny
What role did you have in the previous game before we restarted?

@Alduskkel
I think that analysis is an accurate representation of the events. Khamisa didn't really give much to go on, and Snow_Bunny was not much better. I'd like to go back and note down your play during all of that, but I will do that later as I want to check in to my other games and the doctor says I shouldn't be in a sitting position for too long due to my back. Fortunately I have more free time than I know what to do with for the next week though (hooray disability pay!) and I'll be back hopefully later tonight or tomorrow to do this.

[semioldguy]

I asked what role you had previously to compare play-styles between the two games. You said in this game wasn't as appealing as it was the first time and were having trouble getting into it.

[semioldguy]

I thought I was the Seer last game... must have been the cop. Deleted my PM from that one.

[semioldguy]

To potentially compare playstyles. I think that question has been answered a couple times now.

[semioldguy]

Blame me if you will, but as someone else said, if I was scum, I had the chance to help Khamisa and probably myslynch, and I didn't. What does that tell you?

This doesn't really tell me much of anything to help your case.

If you are using this logic and also voting me it doesn't really makes sense to use that as a defense because I also could have voted to keep Khamisa from being lynched. Using this as a point to your defense is hypocritical considering your vote.

Keeping your suspicions to from the town is scummy. Even if you liked neither wagon, voicing your suspicions is pro-town. Having no motivation to have discussion during an impending deadline is scummy.

[semioldguy]

A posy-by-post analysis of a single player can be used to make anyone look scummy and are often themselves scummy. Isolation reads and post-by-post analysis of a player can be helpful, but it leads to ignoring much of the rest of the game and the larger picture as well as interactions between players.

I like Alduskkel's post analysis because it doesn't fall into the trap of isolating a single player, it looks at the interaction between players.

@Scigatt & dramonic
Speculation on night kills is not often fruitful and leads to lots of second guessing and whatnot. It could be argued that killing the towniest player is not the way to go in this setup, especially since scum being lynched day one means the nightkill must either hit one of the investigators or the target of the good investigator or it is auto-lose for the scum.

@Scigatt
Before lynching me I would like the other two non-confirmed (since they both are most suspicious of me) to post detailed cases on me and why they find me scummy. Tomorrow (since dramonic will surely take the hit tonight) you can review the two cases of the remaining players to help determine which seems genuine and which seems forced.

I of course think this will lead to Snow_Bunny, who hasn't committed to anything on her own this whole game. Her defense is based on WIFOM, saying that if she were scum that she could have stopped Khamisa's lynch isn't a good argument. She has changed her story as to why she didn't post at the end of the day which became. Initially it was because she "didn't have much to say" and "had nothing useful to add" which turned into that she "had suspects" and "had no motivation whatsoever to start a discussion so near the deadline." If that was the case you should have said that from the beginning. Who were you suspicious of on day one? Why were they suspicious to you and why didn't you feel like posting that?

@Snow_Bunny
My initial vote on Khamisa was a pressure vote to get her to do something or anything in the game. She reacted poorly and never did anything, nor did she even provide us with suspects. My pressure vote became a non-pressure vote because of that.

[semioldguy]

V/LA in all my games for a couple days, back problems acting up again. Hope to be back by this weekend

[semioldguy]

...so that I can vote for whomever is the least persuasive writer. Because everyone knows good writing=townieness.

No, because if they write nothing it gives you one less day/lynch to get a read on and writing nothing means that the scum can't slip up. You shouldn't be looking to or let yourself be persuaded, you should be looking for scumminess.

I did not post anything near the deadline because I had nothing useful to add.

Neither Khamisa's nor dram's wagons were appealing to me. What else I was going to say? I unvoted her because my vote was purely random. Would you have preferred my vote to stay where it was? Why?

My bad. No,

I had suspects, but nothing regarding the coming deadline. And truth be told, I had no motivation whatsoever to start a discussion so near the deadline

, specially after coming out from my sickness. Blame me if you will, but as someone else said, if I was scum, I had the chance to help Khamisa and probably myslynch, and I didn't. What does that tell you?

She changes her story in a matter of hours. If the second post was the reason, she shouldn't have felt the need to hide that reason from the town.

Now, if we look at previous roles(which you insisted on doing(p.233), but never wrapped up.), you can see by process of elimination(me and Kham were scum, dram and you were investigators) that she was a townie in the other game. Also, we know that she is either townie or scum in this game. Also, you say that she wasn't as appealing as the first(you say that p.233, she says it p.58 and possibly elsewhere). Therefore, you are asking me to believe that S_B-scum in this game was less into the game than S_B-townie last game. Unless you can give me a good meta reason to believe that isn't unlikely, I can't in good conscience vote for S_B's lynch.

Because people play differently under different roles and different people have different role preferences. I most prefer townie and was happy with the re-roll because I didn't have to be cop anymore (even though I was essentially townie in that game I couldn't have known that)

More information can help to get better reads on players. It doesn't always, but avoiding more information seems much less likely to help. I think Snow_Bunny's differences from last game in addition to her behavior alone in this game BOTH point to her being the remaining scum.

@Snow_Bunny
Of course I can't say that a vote is a pressure vote when it is, because saying that removes all the pressure of the vote if the person being voted doesn't believe it's real.

My vote for you in Post 42 was from your post about getting the game moving and get on a wagon and dramonic's following post. I started a wagon, which helped get us past the RVS stage and is something to get reads from. However, dramonic unmade the wagon before we could get many reads from it.

[semioldguy]

Alduskkel is likely not scum because he could have gone over to Snow_Bunny, it would have been me him and scigatt as the last three with me the one having the hard time to stay alive. He didn't do that though, so that would make him likely town (yes, it's WIFOM).

Scum can't keep dramonic alive. He will know the result from one of the two other players no matter what and that player will know that dramonic is town.

[semioldguy]

Snow_Bunny does not have an established meta as her time is too short on this site and much of it would involve other ongoing games.

[semioldguy]

Really easy to do my meta, I keep all my completed games linked in my Wiki with roles and modes of death included.

[semioldguy]

I didn't play very well.

I almost killed dramonic, but because I thought he would be a likely investigate target. I actually thought that he wasn't the cop and in the end made my decision to kill Cass because I thought she had a chance of being either a cop or an investigate target.

dramonic, your reads on me are usually very good. Though the two of us haven't appeared in many games, my alt has played a few games with you and you've always been pretty spot on about my alignment in those games.

If I was town I would not have lynched you on day one dramonic. It wasn't something I could see myself doing as town and thought that it would have given me and my partner away.

[semioldguy]

@SOG: Was I right about you changing your vote back to Khamisa in 174 after you saw that your vote switch hadn't changed the fact that she was still going to be lynched?

No, that wasn't why I went back. I intended to go back from the beginning. I didn't think about whether she would or would not have still been the lynch with my unvote (before or after the fact until it was brought up by someone else).

[semioldguy]

The night choice was sooo stressful since I knew I'd have nearly a 40% chance to just auto-lose.

[semioldguy]

I think I would have been much better off if I had just not done any of the vote switching toward the end of day one like I did and stayed steady with my Khamisa vote but not lurking into the end of the day. That'll teach me to drink and post.

[semioldguy]

But I can't counterclaim either of the cops, because with two days left both are lynched and I would lose. So I have to kill one of the cops or the investigation target of the good cop to leave enough non-confirmeds for me to have a chance. Or if the good cop chooses the other cop as the investigation.

Two cops plus a confirmed innocent (since with a scum death you'll know which cop result is good) makes it 3 vs 2 and no way for the scum to win at that point as the uninformed majority becomes the informed majority.

[semioldguy]

May I know the identity of said alt? :3

No