Newbie 113 - Game Over

[Mr. Flay]

/confirm, ready for takeoff

[Mr. Flay]

I know mircy stuff... I just don't understand why we aren't changing our means of expression as our palletes change.

We're creatures of habit; ever heard the study done with the apes, the bananas, and the firehose?

we are in doing open discourse, so no need to use shortened commands, which in reality, do nothing here other than arouse memories...

Were you abused by an mirc bot as a small child?

[Mr. Flay]

Vote: EnterYourNameHere

If you'd prefer I vote for you, feel free to enter your name there, instead.

[Mr. Flay]

*lol @ LML* If you're scum again, you're so dead...

[Mr. Flay]

Hmmmm, both the person I'm voting for and Kain are voting for Stam, apparently by accident...decisions, decisions...

Unvote: EYNH, Vote: Kain

for being evil, but mostly to see what happens. As a note, that is a second vote on Kain; in theory, the two scum could hop on and kill him (assuming he's not one). In practice, I don't think that ever has happened in the history of Newbie Games, because it would immediately lead to them getting killed the next day.

[Mr. Flay]

Mr. Flay, why so anxious over a second vote by Kain? You placed a second vote too. I don't think Kain's vote was scummy. I think he may need to read the thread a little closer, but that's it.

Yes, but Kain's was accidental (or not), whereas I explained

while I was posting it

that it was a second vote, why that might be considered dangerous, and why I didn't think it was particularly dangerous. I'm not yet convinced it was entirely accidental is all.

I'm collecting information at this point, particularly on those I haven't played with before. Stam and LML I have a bit better grasp on. If no more votes show up on EYNH or Kain, that's information. If they do, well, that's information too. Likewise, who comments and who doesn't has an impact as well.

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry Kain, my "evil" comment was based on your name/avatar, and not anything I could relate to the game itself. Probably should have left it out, but I thought I was being clever.

I don't think double-posting is rude; it's more suspicious in my book to wait for someone else to notice and call you on a mistake in your post, than to do it yourself. MafiaScum doesn't generally have a problem with that sort of thing (possibly because the site itself double-posts more than anyone else does ). Then again, I post a *lot*, so I may be biased...

I'd also like to hear from Tamuz. Vote stands for now, although I'm awfully curious why LoudmouthLee decided to FOS (Finger of Suspicion) Kain for his second vote, but not me for mine. He's also been very chummy with me, when I was scum with him in the Greek mafia game on the GL.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm awfully curious why LoudmouthLee decided to FOS (Finger of Suspicion) Kain for his second vote, but not me for mine. He's also been very chummy with me, when I was scum with him in the Greek mafia game on the GL.

Now as for what you have said here- It is my opinion that perhaps you are pointing out LML's FOS on me as to shift any SUSPICION on yourself....or perhaps you are right and LML is acting sucpisicious? it could be taken either way. And what did you intend to mean or point our when you said that he was quite chummy with you?

Well, I'm not disputing LML's suspicion on me,

per se

- there *is* a certain amount of suspicion to be weighed on the first '2nd vote'. And if we accept that yours was accidental, as it seems, then that makes my action somwhat suspect. Which is why I'm curious about Lee's motivation for ignoring mine.

As for being "quite chummy", I just got the sense that he's buddying up to me. I've played with him before (as a scum team), on the GL, as I mentioned, and perhaps he's always this cheerful and 'chummy'. I was/am wondering if he was trying to lower my suspicion of him by reminding me of our prior bond.

Still thinking out loud. I'm not entirely encouraged by Tamuz' sudden appearance after someone votes for him; the "I forgot about the thread" excuse is an old line that can't always be true.

Unvote: Kain

for now,

FOS: Tamuz and LoudmouthLee

. But yes, the site has been down in the mornings the last few days, so no new vote yet.

Yes, I'm always this suspicious; read my past newbie games if you don't believe me.

[Mr. Flay]

Stam, it looks like you've come a long way since the last game we were in together. Your points seem to be well-reasoned and insightful.

LoudmouthLee, any particular reason you don't want us to get to a 2nd vote on anyone just yet? Right now, I'm probably most suspicious of yourself and Tamuz. Kain seems to just be a newbie with a lot of thoughts, as does EnterYourNameHere...

big_kahunia, anything else I can add? You had some questions about my vote...

[Mr. Flay]

Having a hard time reading this game overall. Everyone seems to be hedging their bets. Kain, then big_k both mention the "you're either for us or against us" tautology, and while I agree with EYNH's interpretation of it, he seems to be waiting to see if anyone else will vote first.

LML, I posted a second vote on Kain just an hour before you FOSed Kain for doing the same thing, that's the "other" second vote people are talking about.

I'm seeing some interesting pairing-gaps in the posts so far:
* LML and Tamuz have NO direct interactions yet. However, since both have been semi-lurking, that's not entirely surprising.
* EYNH and LML also don't have any suspicions/thoughts about each other, which is a little more surprising.
* Big_kahunia suspects almost everyone, which I haven't made up my mind about. Could be careful play, could be waiting for a bandwagon.
* Kain waffles on everything, as does Tamuz to a degree.
* A lot of suspicion has been directed my way, Tamuz's, and Kain's.

Mod

, can we get a vote count as it stands now? I'm leaning back toward EYNH for his comments about wanting to vote for Kain, who everyone seemed to jump on after I put a second vote on him.

[Mr. Flay]

I want to address Flay: do note that you're referencing a game in which you and Lee were SCUM PARTNERS. It is natural for scum partners to have some sort of "chumminess" with each other. As such, unless you are claiming that you and Lee are partners, which I highly doubt you are, I would not consider this particular piece of evidence. I haven't been here long enough to know, but it seems that you are a well-respected veteran, and, as I know from the chat room I play in, that newbies and vets alike tend to "be chummy" with the other veterans. I'd say that Lee "being chummy" with you is just an example of this, not Lee being a scum.

I should address this before I go: I was scum in six of my first seevn games on MafiaScum & the GL, so a lot of the games I reference will be ones where I was scum. Despite the odds, probability says that has

nothing

to do with whether I'm scum in this game, of course.

What I was/am trying to say about Lee is that he's being chummy here where we're not partners, and I'm not sure if he's just naturally that way (signs point to yes), or crafting a good impression. Since that was the only game I've played with him so far, I may have a biased opinion of Lee as scummy. But I *do* find your defense of another player on Day One very edifying... 8)

[Mr. Flay]

Everyone has a biased opinion of me as scummy. It's part of my persona You love me for it, Flay.

I just reread the thread, and I apologize for missing the double vote earlier. I was not paying much attention. I'm a good natured guy, and I always remember that this is still a game.

Whereas I play for blood... Fair enough...

As for scumminess and the such, I'm going to give minor (note the term, minor)

FoS: Flay and Stam

You both seem to be on the FoS train right now. IMHO, it seems taht you guys have nearly FOSed everyone so far, so, as of right now, my vote is staying on Flay.

Ehhh, reread my other games. I always FOS/vote everybody, whether I'm scum or not. That's cause I'm paranoid.

It seems to be rather funny, Flay, because of this...

LoudmouthLee, any particular reason you don't want us to get to a 2nd vote on anyone just yet? Right now, I'm probably most suspicious of yourself and Tamuz. Kain seems to just be a newbie with a lot of thoughts, as does EnterYourNameHere...

I just feel that it is very difficult, for a game such as a newbie game, to be piling on votes is a bad idea. More discussion, less second voting.

Please elaborate on what's "funny" about that comment (and I assume you don't mean ha-ha). I don't happen to feel that second votes are as dangerous in newbie games as people think they are, partially because games move much slower here than (say) GL.

As for missing on of the double voters... there isn't much I can say. But, let's not forget Occam's razor, people...

The simplest answer is the best. I missed it with a quick skim of random votes.

I'd be ready to accept that if my vote hadn't been RIGHT before your FOS in the thread. Post 24 was the last thing on Page 1, and your FOS was Post 25, an hour later.

However, my vote was ALREADY on Flay, and that would be a competent reason on why it didnt quite matter whether I made notice to flay or not.

Yes, but which is it? You can't have it both ways; either you missed it, or you felt it was already covered. I think you're manufacturing reasons after the fact.

Vote: LoudmouthLee

- I'm pretty sure that's the first one, but I still would like a vote count.

[Mr. Flay]

Everyone has a biased opinion of me as scummy. It's part of my persona You love me for it, Flay.

I just reread the thread, and I apologize for missing the double vote earlier. I was not paying much attention. I'm a good natured guy, and I always remember that this is still a game.

Whereas I play for blood... Fair enough...

As for scumminess and the such, I'm going to give minor (note the term, minor)

FoS: Flay and Stam

You both seem to be on the FoS train right now. IMHO, it seems taht you guys have nearly FOSed everyone so far, so, as of right now, my vote is staying on Flay.

Ehhh, reread my other games. I always FOS/vote everybody, whether I'm scum or not. That's cause I'm paranoid.

It seems to be rather funny, Flay, because of this...

LoudmouthLee, any particular reason you don't want us to get to a 2nd vote on anyone just yet? Right now, I'm probably most suspicious of yourself and Tamuz. Kain seems to just be a newbie with a lot of thoughts, as does EnterYourNameHere...

I just feel that it is very difficult, for a game such as a newbie game, to be piling on votes is a bad idea. More discussion, less second voting.

Please elaborate on what's "funny" about that comment (and I assume you don't mean ha-ha). I don't happen to feel that second votes are as dangerous in newbie games as people think they are, partially because games move much slower here than (say) GL.

As for missing on of the double voters... there isn't much I can say. But, let's not forget Occam's razor, people...

The simplest answer is the best. I missed it with a quick skim of random votes.

I'd be ready to accept that if my vote hadn't been RIGHT before your FOS in the thread. Post 24 was the last thing on Page 1, and your FOS was Post 25, an hour later.

However, my vote was ALREADY on Flay, and that would be a competent reason on why it didnt quite matter whether I made notice to flay or not.

Yes, but which is it? You can't have it both ways; either you missed it, or you felt it was already covered. I think you're manufacturing reasons after the fact.

Vote: LoudmouthLee

- I'm pretty sure that's the first one, but I still would like a vote count.

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry, thought the forum ate my first attempt at posting that...

[Mr. Flay]

First, Stam:

WOW!
There is only one thing to say:


unvote: Tamuz
Vote: LoudmouthLee

Your post is awful. Sheep.

For once, we agree.

FOS: Stam

for being a sheep and (paradoxically) being SO much better this game than last. Almost as if you had someone coaching you... but it's a small theory, and not enough to make me switch yet. If LML turns up good someday, however...

Next, to answer more articulate things:

Please elaborate on what's "funny" about that comment (and I assume you don't mean ha-ha). I don't happen to feel that second votes are as dangerous in newbie games as people think they are, partially because games move much slower here than (say) GL.

Yeah, in a game like this, putting a second vote on someone is dangerous BECAUSE of the fast moving of teh games here.

Uhhh, non-sequitur? I said it's because the games move much slower here, you said it's because they move so much faster...? Was this a typo or a difference of opinion (I always have the impression GL games have a faster pace)?

Next point:

I'd be ready to accept that if my vote hadn't been RIGHT before your FOS in the thread. Post 24 was the last thing on Page 1, and your FOS was Post 25, an hour later.

My post was at 2:45AM (much like this one) and I normally get up for work early. (I'm a HS teacher). It was a moment of stupidity. Please, Flay, don't lynch for an honest mistake.

Do you REALLY think I'd make a mistake like THAT? I'd be much more careful if I were scum.

Well, it was a first vote, not a lynching one; I'm still collecting information. Knowing it was at 3am helps, a bit. At this point I'd say that if you're scum, your most likely partners are EYNH or Kain. If you're not, I'd say Stam and (unknown). I still can't get a good read on Tamuz or big_k.

Off the record, is 2:45am when you GO to bed, or GET up?

And finally, one thing I am guilty of...

Yes, but which is it? You can't have it both ways; either you missed it, or you felt it was already covered. I think you're manufacturing reasons after the fact.

Yeah, when everyone and their mother has an FoS pointed at you, you'd be feeling the same way, trying to locate the exact way to make sure everyone understands you. I should have said that it didnt matter anyway. However, I'll take my lumps for that.

It would, on the other hand, be awfully silly to lynch me for a small mistake.

I don't think that incident by itself is lynchworthy, it's more of a general sense that you're playing similar to when you were scum, and possibly deliberately deflecting me.

Or maybe I just suspect everyone, and someone else is using me to get to you... ain't paranoia fun?

[Mr. Flay]

I'm getting bad vibes from Stam.

The quick vote switching without giving reason is very suspicious in my book, almost as if someone *was* couching him.... but who Mr. Flay?
I can't really see who would, do such a thing so early, the only one I really see trying to influence everyone else is Flay, but if he were couching Stam, then why would he point out the couching himself? It doesn't make sense to completely pit the mafia against each other this early, rather to get a kill then witch hunt in the second day.

For this, although I am suspicious of Stam, I do not think he is *that* guilty. However, the way Mr. Flay is taking the reigns makes me think of a mafiatic controlling tactic, which is especially helpful when you have an unobservant poster (an easy scapegoat in LML) plus two non-regular posters such as Big K & myself (though this is not by design in my part, I'm trying to post more... but I just got home). Couple this with Kain, and we are pretty much easy to lead by Flaw... but I'm not sure enough of this to even FOS yet

Tamuz, it's natural to suspect that either the most prolific or the most lurksome posters are possibly scummy...but in my case, it's just my natural playing style. I generally post only about every other time I come on, just because otherwise I'd be spamming the hell out of the boards.... I also suspect nearly everybody, nearly all the time.

I suspect we'll be a little quieter for the weekend, but I want to hear more from big_k and EYNH soon. I'm content with my vote for now.

[Mr. Flay]

Hmmm. I'm finding the third votes very interesting at this point. Usually scum are more likely to put on 3rd votes, avoiding the killing blow on a townie. And at this point I wouldn't *expect* a scum to be on their fellow teammates' bandwagon, so in theory these pairs should be unlikely:
EYNH-Kain, Tamuz-Kain, Flay-LML, Stam-LML, big_k-LML, Stam-Kain. Interestingly this still leaves the possibilities I mentioned in post 58, with regards to LML. If he's pro-town, I'd lean more toward EYNH and Tamuz, as they seem to be agreeing an awful lot.

That said, I have a hard time eliminating possible scum at this point. LML is still acting scummy in my eyes, but Kain has been awfully erratic and jumpy, especially since he started accumulating votes again. That might be newbie jitters, or it might be a scum's nerve breaking. Stam still worries me, a bit, and EYNH's "LML might be scum, but not for the reasons Flay says, even if he is scum" seems like a distancing tactic.

Will read/write more tomorrow. Trying to reinstall my computer at present.

[Mr. Flay]

Hmmm. I'm finding the third votes very interesting at this point. Usually scum are more likely to put on 3rd votes, avoiding the killing blow on a townie. And at this point I wouldn't *expect* a scum to be on their fellow teammates' bandwagon, so in theory these pairs should be unlikely:
EYNH-Kain, Tamuz-Kain, Flay-LML, Stam-LML, big_k-LML, Stam-Kain. Interestingly this still leaves the possibilities I mentioned in post 58, with regards to LML. If he's pro-town, I'd lean more toward EYNH and Tamuz, as they seem to be agreeing an awful lot.

That said, I have a hard time eliminating possible scum at this point. LML is still acting scummy in my eyes, but Kain has been awfully erratic and jumpy, especially since he started accumulating votes again. That might be newbie jitters, or it might be a scum's nerve breaking. Stam still worries me, a bit, and EYNH's "LML might be scum, but not for the reasons Flay says, even if he is scum" seems like a distancing tactic.

Will read/write more tomorrow. Trying to reinstall my computer at present.

[Mr. Flay]

Hemm... LML missed a chance to kill Kain, maybe he was too busy... but he didn't take such an opportunity (as did flay and Big_k). I'm not saying they should have, I'm just saying we should keep that in mind if any of the aforementioned/Kain turn out being Mafioso.

It's a good thing to keep an eye on, but remember that scum have to go through at least two days to win. They can't afford a quick-lynch on Day One, which is why I think the "don't-put-a-second-vote-on-meeeee!" tactic is a little weak.

But yes, I think the fact that Kain is as suspicious as he is, and yet no one took the 4th vote, is interesting. Ditto for LML, though I don't think all of the players who *could* vote for him, have been on, yet..

Just because I thought Stam was feeling bad, doesn't mean I can't also look at others... I mean if we lynched people switching views Flay should be 6 feet under, multiple times.

*laugh* Thanks, good to know I'm still sufficiently paranoid.

Bah, Kain. I was all set to defend you.

Where did this come from? You can't possibly have had an investigation yet in a newbie game, so even if you're a cop, you've got no more knowledge than anybody else at this point (unless you're scum). With what would you defend him?

I'm content with either LML or Kain today...but my vote stays on Lee for now.

[Mr. Flay]

Actually, mafia are perfectly willing to join on a lynch for their scumbuddy, provided it looks like there is no other way out. It provides them a defense the next day when they can say "look, see, I voted for the scum!"

LML, I don't understand you. If you're 'claiming' an ambiguous power role, you're gonna be targeted by the mafia, right? And if you're claiming something you're not...well, I leave that as an exercise for the reader.

I'm still not sure if Kain is a frustrated townie or a panicked scum, but I'm 75% willing to switch to him now. However, that may partially be because I'm going out of town and don't want to see the game stall. I'll probably vote Kain in the morning if no one has any further burning questions...

[Mr. Flay]

Kain, I'm still trying to see what your argument is in favor of your pro-town nature. You keep telling us to go reread, but what specifically do you think points up your innocence? Maybe I'm just having a hard time following you...

I'm not going to vote you "just to get the day done", I was merely saying that my gut tells me either you or LML right now, and the longer you sit at 3, the more statistics bear me out. So I'll wait, for now, and see what happens.

Lee: I don't know what voting for Kain under duress does for you, except a) give you an alibi when/if he comes up townie, or b) give you an alibi when/if he comes up scum. The point remains that you only did it when people started commenting on it, which is a *crappy* way to play the game (letting other people dictate your actions). I know you're better than that...

By the way, the last time I asked the cop to investigate me, I was scum...just FYI.

[Mr. Flay]

Glad to see more out of big_kahunia. I apologize for being quieter lately, I'm at a conference and have 20-40 minutes access from the Sacramento library a day.

Now, that being said, I do *not* apologize for "exercising control" over the game, as Tamuz tried to characterize it. If I have any "authority", it is because other players let me have it and thus make their decisions for them.

Unvote

for now, just so I don't rush into a lynch on anyone. Will read more fully on Sunday, hopefully the forum will be more stable by then.

[Mr. Flay]

I’m saying we need to “rush” a lynch. Our lynch should be logical. The most suspicious person should be lynched day 1. I move that the most suspicious person is LML.

Presumably, you meant to say "we don't need to rush a lynch"... and I agree. But I just don't want my vote, while I'm mostly absent, to help lynch an innocent. I'll reread, and likely revote, when I get back in town. Already I've seen something that makes me recalculate who I think are scum...

[Mr. Flay]

Okay, I'm back. I'm really not liking Kain's lurking-and-then-returning, or LML's almost-gonna-vote-you.

What I "noticed" earlier is Stam fishing for theories that don't include the current ones going, and his backing off of Kain. So

Revote: Kain

to see what happens (that should be 3 of 4 needed?)...

[Mr. Flay]

The mod didn't say we couldn't talk in twilight, so I assume we can. Always remember that anything said can be done from either pro-town or scummy intentions, and may or may not be true...at this point scum will already know whether Kain is theirs or not, which helps.

However, once the mod posts Kain's alignment/death scene, we'll be unable to talk, so I'm not sure what you're waiting for, Tamuz...

[Mr. Flay]

Thanks, Norinel.

Tamuz, if you were going to post some last-minute observations, now would be a good time...

[Mr. Flay]

:p Flay I was just going to try a newish tactic, try and make the mafia know I'm important so I'd get NK, but the speed of Maxi didn't help me much

Yeah, I expect Maximus' disappearance has thrown all kind of strategies into disarray...we seem to be accomplishing more in "twilight" than we did the entire Day! Still, the make-'em-think-you're-more-than-a-townie gambit is worth trying once in a while...

Oh yes just for everyone to consider- the mafia will probably end up knocking somebody off in the middle of the night so that'll leave you with three townies and two mafia- it would be very unwise to vote for someone unless you were conviced that they were mafia.

Unless Kain is the most insane mafioso I've ever met, this is good advice. Start the day tomorrow with FOSes, not votes, unless you want to sabotage the game...

Of course if he's scum, we've got some breathing room, but I don't honestly think so at this point. I guess Stam hasn't become nearly as clever a scum-hunter as I feared...

[Mr. Flay]

And if we have a doctor please protect Mr. Flay. Well adios yall until tommorow- hopefully the mod will not have lynched me by then! lol wow this is one long twilight!

*laugh* Now why couldn't you be this sensible and logical before we lynched you? But yes, I would appreciate the doctor's attention this evening....

[Mr. Flay]

At this point I'm not sure who should be investigated; everything since twilight began has been vastly different than before Kain got his fourth vote. Stam's regressed quite a bit, big_k clammed back up, Kain has been expounding at great length (if you're town, Kain, I want to play with you again, but please...paragraphs??). LML and EYNH have both shut up entirely, which could mean they're lurking scum waiting not to get caught, or maybe they just assume we're in twilight and have gone on to their other games. Tamuz tried a weird gambit there, but he's been hard to read all along.

Who don't I think should be investigated? Well, me, for one... but that's easy, because I know who I am (pro-town), and everyone seems to think I'm pretty confirmed as a good guy. Unfortunately it also paints a big bullseye on my forehead... which is why I explicitly agreed that the doctor should protect me.

[Mr. Flay]

Mr. Flay in this game or another game I read him say something along the lines of " i invited the cop to investigate me and I was scum that game."

I'm pretty sure that was game 73, when I was scum and trying a "Wine In Front of Me" gambit. Surely no scum would bald-faced ask to be investigated, therefore the cop would move on and investigate someone else... it didn't work for an entirely different reason (mafia strategies change when the cop comes out Day One, and the doc survives...). So while it might very well be a ploy by LML, I'm not as sure of it as you are.

Just something to consider for our Cop...if we have one!!!!

I don't know, Maximus' game setup was so minimal, I didn't even consider if he was using the maybe-no-cop, maybe-no-doc scenario (sometimes called Variant 93). We could have 3, 4, or 5 townies, and 2, 1, or no power roles. But I'm going to proceed with assuming not, since I think he'd have mentioned that possibility. 1 cop, 1 doc, 3 townies, 2 mafia is still standard newbie game setup.

And yes, thank you VERY much for the paragraphs. My eyes, I can see@!!!1!

[Mr. Flay]

Wow, I'm still alive! Okay, everyone needs to come back to the land of the living and figure out what to do next. I'm still undecided, but want to see what people think after a good night's sleep...

oh, and big_k? Ouch..

[Mr. Flay]

I suppose I deserve the suspicion on me for that earlier post. I wanted to hear from people, since there was a big silence after Tamuz' daybreak post, and didn't have anything new to add myself. Then last night we had a storm and I couldn't follow up on it.

Right now I'm leaning towards Stam and LML being our scum, but I want to hear if we got any night results first; unfortunately big_k won't be able to confirm anyone through a successful protection, which would have been the nicest outcome.

I don't like EYNH's whole "I did that specifically for crappy logic reasons" revelation from twilight yesterday, but LML's protestations of innocence still bother me, and Stam still seems wildly inconsistent. Tamuz could go either way, still...which probably means he's scum, given my record.

As for Flay: I do not know if mafia are given an opportunity to discuss games that begin in day before they start. If not, then I can't see Flay as LML's partner at all: I doubt that scum would go at each other's throats without having coordinating it first. And his post today makes me create an image of a small child saying "No, mommy, I didn't break the cookie jar!" all while holding the shards behind his back.

In general, but not always, mafia get to talk during the confirmation stage of a Day-dawning game. I don't know which way Maximus went with, since he didn't post much of an opener and I'm not one of the scum.

It's a good consideration, though I generally assume they can talk beforehand (I couldn't in my first game, Newbie 25, and raised holy hell about it afterward, even though we won).

[Mr. Flay]

Mr. Flay - I am not sure what you meant by me being inconsistent. Can you elaborate on that?

What I meant was that you are/were being fairly insightful at times, and boneheaded at others (like killing Kain suddenly), or this little gem:

LML - post or I will vote. [/color]

My suspicions on you are not alleviated, Stam, because you threaten to vote him. Possibly *especially* because you threaten to vote him this early, knowing that we are in lynch-or-lose. If either yourself or both of you are scum, however, you know we have nothing to lose from a 1st vote on LML at this point.

Very interesting. I'm tempted to call your bluff, but I want this to be more than a two-person conversation first.

[Mr. Flay]

I'm going to take a calculated risk here, but my innocence in nearly everyone's eyes makes it a justifiable one, with big_k dead. Then maybe you'll see why some people thought I was "controlling the game" yesterday.

I'm the cop. If someone wants to make my job easy by claiming against me, feel free. I've got one investigation, on a live player, but I won't say who yet, or whether it's pro-town or scum result. I know 4 out of 7 allegiances, then, including myself and the two dead players. If we play our cards right, we should be able to wrap this up today and tomorrow with fairly little struggle.

Going to reread everyone's posts and start correlating known falsehoods; more later.

[Mr. Flay]

Think of it this way: everyone else is either (a) working off their same suspicions as yesterday, or (b) scum, working their angle as best they can. Either one can account for anyone's behavior except mine, I think...it would make 0 sense for me to false-claim now when everyone already thinks I'm innocent, if I was scum...all I'd have to do is steer the suspicion onto a non-scum, and we'd win.

[Mr. Flay]

Let me start this post by saying I know

four

things - innocent players - and the rest of this is speculation. Scum have been very hard to spot in this game, and the person I investigated was someone I was sure was going to come back guilty...

EnterYourNameHere

. However I got an

innocent result

, which limits my choices to Stam, LML, and Tamuz. I know EYNH hasn't posted in days, but here's how I read the thread with that knowledge:

• Kain
  - presumed bad, voted for by
  big_kahunia
  (RV), Flay, then unvoted by Flay, voted by EYNH in post 66, after which big_k jumps off, Tamuz jumps on and then Stam in quick succession, Tamuz unvoted after LML missed a chance to put on the 4th, to which LML put on a 3rd again the next day. Stam unvoted the following day. Tamuz put the third back on several days later, and then took it off a couple of days after that. Flay put a third vote on that same day, and Stam finished him off on the 31st. Turned out to be good. Voted for Stam first. Role-claimed townie in post 77. Had the strange 86-hour absence and then returned in half-an-hour, which Stam called him on. Really suspected Stam, EYNH, and to a lesser degree LML in his twilight posts.
• big_kahunia
  - voted for by
  Stam
  (RV) only, killed at night, turned out to be the doctor. Voted/suspicioned
  LML & EYNH
  as a scum pairing multiple times. Didn't really give off any tells that I saw for being the doc, so perhaps he was killed to set up LML/EYNH for a fall? That would leave Stam and Tamuz...
• EYNH
  - presumed bad and illogical, voted for by
  Flay
  (RV), who unvoted soon afterward, and then
  no one else the rest of Day One
  , despite lots of suspicions on him (mostly paired with LML). Turned out to be good according to my investigation. Completely worthless logic on the Kain bandwagon (admitted it in post 144), which Stam and Kain called him on. Tamuz ignored this entirely, which was interesting. In fact, all three suspicious players pretty much avoided voting for him, despite lots of FOSes and questions.
  Day Two, he started to find LML and Flay scummy, but hasn't posted since #159. Despite that, there's an uncontested investigation on him proving him innocent.
• Mr. Flay
  - presumed innocent, thought to be 'controlling', voted for by
  LML
  (RV), and that's all for Day One. Turned out to be the cop. In post 46 I noted that myself, Kain, and Tamuz had been receiving most of the suspicions so far. Two of those three are proven bogus now...
  Trying to figure out why I didn't die last night...presumably the mafia assumed I *would* be protected, since I asked for it. I'll die tonight for sure, obviously, so that won't tell us anything.
• Stam
  - Already voiced most of my concerns about him from Day One, mainly inconsistency and pulling the trigger on Kain. His attitude toward LML is also very interesting. Voted for by
  EYNH
  (RV), then Kain, at which point EYNH unvoted and no one else voted for him the rest of Day One, although LML put several FOSes on him. That means all votes for him (all tow, granted) were from pro-town players; also very interesting.
  Woke up Day Two with some undefined suspicions (post 156), then turned on LML & EYNH. When I said I was the cop, he said he thought Tamuz would be (post 173), though Tamuz had already made it pretty clear he wasn't in his opening post... Then put out an irrelevant FOS on Nanook, our new mod, instead of content. Threatened to vote LML if he didn't post after ~40 hours from daybreak. Backed off his suspicions on EYNH to favor LML. His list of scumminess in post 167 was LML, EYNH, Flay, and Tamuz, almost identical to Tamuz' list three posts earlier.
• LML
  - Drew a lot of suspicion all day, including from big_kahunia. Never got any random votes at the beginning, but was voted for by myself in post 50/51, then Stam in post 54, and big_k in post 68 several days later to make 3. Stam then jumped ship to Kain and stayed there off and on until the end. In post 86 he stated that he 'may' be a power role without pressure being put on him. Didn't think Kain was scum, even though he voted for him to prove a point. Bizarre statement in post 80 about 'being all set to defend Kain' led to this. Ignored Stam most of the day, until twilight and Stam had pulled the trigger on Kain. Was at 3 votes on 5/22, from Mr. Flay, Stam, and big_kahunia. Two of those are proven pro-town now, and Stam switched to put a third vote on Kain two posts later (#71). Lee's cavalier attitude toward being lynched also makes me suspicious ("lynch me if you want to", "everything I do is suspicious"). In post 90, he stated bald-faced that he was voting for Kain not because he thought he was guilty, but because he wanted to show that the town would find him suspicious no matter what he did.
  Absent for the first part of Day Two, then pops in at posts 168 and 169, saying he finds Flay innocent (noticed I was the cop?) and Stam and EYNH the scummiest.
• Tamuz
  - Got 'bad vibes' on Stam after my post asking if he was being coached (#62), very non-committal overall. Voted for LML in post 120, after two weeks, to 'get things done'. Switched off of Kain to do so, though, so that may not mean anything... Post 65 directly addresses my saying that Tamuz and LML hadn't interacted, and he said "though it may just get me killed in LML turns out to be guilty". Tried the 'kill-me-I'm-a-power-role' gambit before nightfall, which is weird enough to maybe be pro-town. Suspected four different people in post 99, leaving off just Kain and EYNH (and himself). In post 111, he said he had a vote ready in a heartbeat if there was a deadline, but didn't say who it was (maybe Kain?).
  Posted first when Day Two broke, which is sometimes a tell of someone with a night action...8 minutes after daybreak, in fact. Also suspected EYNH at that point, "but I don't discount anyone". Keeping his options open? His preferences for scumminess in post 164 was EYNH, LML, Stam, and Flay.

In post 75/76 I wrote this:

And at this point I wouldn't *expect* a scum to be on their fellow teammates' bandwagon, so in theory these pairs should be unlikely: EYNH-Kain, Tamuz-Kain, Flay-LML, Stam-LML, big_k-LML, Stam-Kain. Interestingly this still leaves the possibilities I mentioned in post 58 (LML-EYNH or LML-Kain, Stam+?).

Both of the first two possibilities are now proven impossible, and the "unlikely pairs" are all confirmed impossible except for Stam-LML. Could be a WIFOM game though...

Everything from post 175 to post 180 between Tamuz, LML, and Stam is confusing. But the fact that Stam wants us to "ignore what LML says" makes me suspicious that he's setting LML up for a fall, and making himself look good. I'm about 89% sure Stam is scum, with either Tamuz as his partner (if you buy that big_k was killed to set up LML & EYNH), or LML (who ignored Stam/almost defended him/etc). Hard to say, really, but we've got a 66% chance or better...

EnterYourNameHere

, we need you! Now that you're proven innocent, I've got to listen to you, and only hope you make more logical sense today than yesterday....

[Mr. Flay]

One thing I didn't get from your post - where did Tamuz make it clear he wasn't a cop? I missed that.

In Tamuz' opening post of the day, he said he "wasn't discounting anyone." To me that means he had no additional information from what he had the night before. Plus, obviously in my universe, I know he's not the cop, so that colored my read of his post, especially since he was pointing the finger at the one additional person I knew was innocent. I don't think that makes Tamuz scum (or town), it just makes him not-a-cop.

You say that we have 66% chance - maybe today, but in order to win we need to be right today AND tomorrow - so we have only 33% Sad

On the percentages; I haven't done a full workup, but right now we have three people to choose from, assuming LML doesn't persuade you all to vote me or EYNH... Two of those are scum (*I* know this much, even if I haven't convinced the rest of you yet). 66% of getting it right today, minimum, plus any slip-ups scum may make. That means we get to continue til tomorrow, at which point one of three things happens:
1) I die. You all see I'm the cop, which means EYNH is confirmed, leaving two people to choose from (the survivors of today's shootout). 50% base chance tomorrow, but I really think that we'll see enough out of the scum today to choose right tomorrow.
2) EYNH dies. Kinda silly for scum to do this, since it leaves me alive with another investigation, which means you all see EYNH is pro-town, pretty much clearing any suspicions on me, and I have another investigation. That should be a lock on tomorrow (2-1), if they do something that dumb.
3) Someone dies at random. Basically this is the same as 2), except I *may* still have suspicions over my head, and the scum MAY kill the person I investigate. Still, we'd have me and EYNH and that's 2-1, another automatic win.
So really, that's why I'm sure I die tonight. Anything else is suicide for the scum, unless we lynch a pro-town today, which I'm pretty sure is what's being angled for right now...

Flay, my scummy list is not much like Stams at all...

How is it not? Yours says EYNH, LML, Stam, and myself... Stam's says LML, EYNH, myself, and Tamuz... except for the switch of your own names, everyone's within one place of their place on Stam's, in yours, and vice versa...

We're all forgetting something of importance, and I NEED you all to realize this...

WE MAY ALL BE LED TO OUR GRAVE BY THE SCUM!

Here's how -

According to Maximus's opening post (which is no longer there.. I'm hoping you all remember.), there are a few possibilities for the game layout. There are only 2 left right now.

#1 - Doc, Cop, Townies, Scum
#2 - Doc, Townies, Scum

Shenanigans. I can't call up the original post by Maximus any more than you can, but I remember that he didn't say ANYTHING about how the roles were spread out, what the role PMs looked like, anything. In the absence of evidence to the contrary, and per Norinel's rule that variant games must be labeled as such, that means this game HAS to have 3 townies, 1 doc, 1 cop, and 2 scum. I'll allow that you've got some concerns about me trying to deflect suspicion from myself/EYNH, but this isn't a good reason for it. I was under NO threat of lynch today even if I was scum, and I could have protected EYNH much better by (say) coming up with a false guilty result on yourself or Stam, rather than trying to convince you all that EYNH is actually on the side of good. Am I that foolhardy, Lee? Or are you searching for a reason to cast doubt on me?

The quote that upset me the most and is leading to the FoS: Flay is this...

EnterYourNameHere, we need you! Now that you're proven innocent, I've got to listen to you, and only hope you make more logical sense today than yesterday....

I will repeat this for Tamuz and Stam... he is NOT PROVEN INNOCENT BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.

I can't decide right now if you're a paranoid townie or a panicked scum. Take that as a compliment, either way... I'd doubt me too. But since we're in lynch-or-lose, any cop we have CANNOT afford to have me railroading the game today. I'd come out in their place....and if no one does, what rational reason do we have to doubt EYNH's innocence by my investigation?

I don't like it either. I hemmed and hawed on whether to investigate EYNH, yourself, or Stam...and I picked the one I thought most likely to come up guilty. I actually *didn't* investigate you, because I didn't want to end up with an innocent result and be placed in this position. Imagine my surprise...


I appreciate the compliment to my skills, but really, I haven't got this many brass balls in my pocket. I'm finally pro-town in another game and am sweating bullets over every step of this Day... even though I already know I'm a walking dead man.

More in a bit, on the suspicions of me and Tamuz...

[Mr. Flay]

Just some more quotes that REALLY don't sit well with me:

All from the SAME FLAY post:

Well, sure man, it's a million lines long, and my only real post of the weekend... of course it's from the same post.

I'll die tonight for sure, obviously, so that won't tell us anything.

What if you were scum?

What are you smoking? If I live until tomorrow, I'm dead via lynch. At this point I can ONLY think that you're trying to set me up by leaving me alive tomorrow, but the point remains I'll have another investigation... which I suppose you'll try to say is bogus as well, after we lynch correctly today (or else this is all moot).

That probably doesn't parse very well. Look, Stam had my highest rating for being scum after EYNH got knocked out, but you're climbing right the hell up there. You've been skittish and weird all game, and you run between calling me an "amazing player" and saying I can't be trusted. I think you're a good player, but (from Greek mafia on GL), you can make some bad logic posts as scum, and I think you're making a bad leap of intuition here. What would benefit me by trying to clear EYNH today? Again, I could have fingered you or Stam and gotten a much easier lynch, if that was my goal. Tamuz as well, though to a lesser extent...

Was at 3 votes on 5/22, from Mr. Flay, Stam, and big_kahunia. Two of those are proven pro-town now

Who are the two PROVEN PROTOWN?

Grrr. big_kahunia's proven by death, and in MY analysis, based on what *I* know about myself, I'm proven innocent. Do you often make your game analysis including the possibility that you might be scum, when you're not? Look back to the first line of that post you're quoting, where I say that I only KNOW four things; the innocent players that are in my notes. I didn't say the TOWN knew it, though I'll be surprised if they go for this gambit.

Flay, you're using bad logic here... you're making assumptions that we, as townies, CANNOT make.

I'm not a townie. That's why I'm posting with the information I have. If someone can contradict me as being the cop, then they come out now, and you all have a 50/50 chance to kill me or the counter-claimer. I die, game's over (yes, I know this; no, you don't know this to be a fact, unless you're scum). The counter-claimer's lynched, we end up with a proven cop (me), a proven townie (EYNH), and another investigation tonight that I don't expect to live to make public.

But if NO ONE contradicts me, then what choice do we have? One player's "reasonable doubt" (and one unreasonable doubt...see below)? It's all the information I have to give you, and the only reason I held onto it was to let other people hang themselves by their suspicions/allegations before I came out with it. No one hung themselves at the time, but I'm fairly certain that we could lynch you and see a dead scum as a result. If we did, then we're in the same position...EYNH lives, I die tonight, and there are three left alive tomorrow. Whoever the pair is, they're doing a pretty good job of distancing themselves from each other, unless it's Lee and Stam.

I believe that Flay may be lying, especially after how scummy he looked coming out of the gate today. And if he is scum, Tamuz is almost 100% his partner.

So much for better logic from you today... lying about WHAT??? Being the cop, or your innocence? This post makes no sense...I've given you the only lifeline you've got, and you seem to want to hang us all with it. After admitting you joined a bandwagon on bad logic yesterday, you were number 1 with a bullet today... and I *still* found you innocent, according to Nanook. Did you send him a false role PM or something? I'm seriously lost by this entire post... yes, maybe there's some outside chance that Tamuz and I concocted a hairbrained scheme to clear YOU and try to get...well, Tamuz, or two others, lynched today. That's

brilliant

.

Aaargh. I'm tired tonight, Tamuz is making my math-related posts for me, and I'm going to sleep. Please, no one vote any suspicions until we get a little more time to discuss this. I think we're being blindsided by some seriously sweating scum...

[Mr. Flay]

At this stage, we're all sitting around the table staring each other down. I'm prepared to vote LML in order to prove myself innocent (since he's the only one really advocating this false-claim story, if he comes up scum that should be the end of it), or Tamuz for *continuing* to be 100% undecided about everything. Stam, I still think is suspicious for pulling the trigger on Kain, and if LML comes up scum, I think he's our next best bet... but those two are standing out more for me.

I'm sorry I don't have more. Everyone's playing their cards so close to their vest, and I really thought I'd have a scum-lock in EYNH...

[Mr. Flay]

Sorry for the double-post, but I feel like I should explain a few things that may have been posted pre-caffeine earlier:

1. I'm not excusing Stam from suspicions, but at this point I'm more worried about clearing my own name. If it comes to pass that the game is lost because I made a bad cop, that's inexcusable in my book. But LML's supposition that I'm playing a cop gambit is even more unlikely...

   If you can point out any game where he went on an adventure as bold as what you suggest he is doing here, please share it with us.

   I tried to counter-claim mathcam as the doctor on Day Two in Newbie #73, but that was desperation, not boldness. We had an outed/cleared Cop on Day One, and a living Doctor even on Day Two... the only way to nix the Cop's future was to lynch the Doctor during the day. If I was scum today, I was in *no* danger, hence no reason to claim something false.
2. Check my record, I've been scum MORE often than I've been town in the past, despite mathematical improbabilities. Now look at my play in those games; it's easier to run gambits and finger people for guilt when you know who is the town and who isn't. I'm actually a fairly mediocre players on the town's side, mainly because I haven't had much practice (killed Night One in Checkmate, Newbies 102
   and
   108 - and the
   first
   person to suggest that means I should always be lynched Day Two if I'm alive, gets my vote ). Contrast that with Newbie 68, where we won by catching the mafia in a double-claim. My first experience of being a townie!
3. I don't know why EYNH suspected me of lying, but can everyone agree that there were easier ways to do it if I'd just fingered EYNH, or Stam, or Lee? A non-guilty result on a townie in lynch-or-lose is about the worst result you can hope for, short of a result on a dead townie...
4. I don't know why Tamuz is latching onto me and we're agreeing on everything. Maybe he's scum with LML trying to set me up for a fall...maybe we just have similar thought patterns.

I'm itching to vote, but we've only been in daylight for less than a week, and everyone hasn't chimed in since EYNH rescinded his suspicions of me.

[Mr. Flay]

Last words of a dying scum.

"

Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.

- It's time to roll the dice."

Vote: LoudmouthLee

[Mr. Flay]

This can wait, Lee.

Unvote: LML, Vote: Stam

[Mr. Flay]

Just a note, since I'm probably dead once night falls; while it's unlikely that Lee is Stam's partner, it's an outside possibility of a gambit to prove the innocence of one scum by voting for the other. Tamuz' continued silence

seems

to indicate otherwise, though it's only been 6 hours since Stam jumped...

Good luck, town.

[Mr. Flay]

[Mr. Flay]

*lol @ LML* If you're scum again, you're so dead...

FOS: Stam

for being a sheep and (paradoxically) being SO much better this game than last. Almost as if you had someone coaching you... but it's a small theory, and not enough to make me switch yet. If LML turns up good someday, however...

Right now I'm leaning towards Stam and LML being our scum

LML - post or I will vote.

My suspicions on you are not alleviated, Stam, because you threaten to vote him. Possibly *especially* because you threaten to vote him this early, knowing that we are in lynch-or-lose. If either yourself or both of you are scum, however, you know we have nothing to lose from a 1st vote on LML at this point.

In post 75/76 I wrote this:

And at this point I wouldn't *expect* a scum to be on their fellow teammates' bandwagon, so in theory these pairs should be unlikely: EYNH-Kain, Tamuz-Kain, Flay-LML, Stam-LML, big_k-LML, Stam-Kain. Interestingly this still leaves the possibilities I mentioned in post 58 (LML-EYNH or LML-Kain, Stam+?).

Both of the first two possibilities are now proven impossible, and the "unlikely pairs" are all confirmed impossible except for Stam-LML. Could be a WIFOM game though...

Look, Stam had my highest rating for being scum after EYNH got knocked out, but

(LML)

you're climbing right the hell up there.

...

Whoever the pair is, they're doing a pretty good job of distancing themselves from each other, unless it's Lee and Stam.

Just a note, since I'm probably dead once night falls; while it's unlikely that Lee is Stam's partner, it's an outside possibility of a gambit to prove the innocence of one scum by voting for the other.

I TOLD you they were scummy! *laugh* Well done, Lee...you've obviously got more brass balls than I thought. I was pretty sure most of the game you two were the scummiest people alive, but I couldn't link you up together. Unfortunately I couldn't gamble on Stam voting for his own partner when he jumped... well played, both of you.

*wanders off muttering*

EYNH, that's the roughest place imaginable to be; a plain townie with the deciding vote for the entire game. You gave it your best shot...and Lee? You're still dead...someday.

[Mr. Flay]

I never had a lynch scene, so I'm technically alive, and nothing anybody says can change that

Yes, but with just two of you alive, Lee's gonna kill you tonight as it is...

[Mr. Flay]

Mr. Flay - I recall you said something about "calling my bluff" when I threatened LML, what did you mean by that?

Just what I said at the time - threatening Lee at that point seemed premature, and the easiest thing in the world for scum to do is threaten and bluster at their friends, because it means that even if they get caught, the friend has plausible deniability. And again, if your partner is the one putting the first vote on, there really is no danger of two people 'jumping on'... although apparently when they're second is another thing, now.