Newbie 113 - Game Over

[Stam]

/confirm Why do I always get the isle?

[Stam]

/confirm after long, unnecessary security checks

Maybe the name on your passport confused them 8)

[Stam]

I will go the Singaporean way

Vote big_kahunia

[Stam]

Two votes on me? Already?
I don't think Kain did that on purpose, but I would like to hear what he was thinking, and how he missed that post of EYNH right before his post.
Alos

FOS LML

. A second vote in a newbie game is imperative for the game to get going.

[Stam]

Just a clarification: I don't think Kain's second vote on me was scummy or anything. As I said, without second votes on players nothing will move. What I want Kain to explain is why he thought this is the first vote on me.

[Stam]

I don't think double posting is rude. If something comes to your mind right after you hit "submit", I think you should say it.

[Stam]

ok

Unvote: big_k

I don't see any reason to keep my vote on him and

lurker vote: Tamuz

.
I hope this will make him say something.
It's wierd he disappeared like that, especially after being "itching to play".

[Stam]

Stam, it looks like you've come a long way since the last game we were in together. Your points seem to be well-reasoned and insightful.

Wow, first Pheobus and now you!
Thanks. I am really flattered
Although after my performance at Newbie 108 the only way to go is up
I learned a lot on that game about what I

shouldn't

do and being lynched on day one taught me a big lesson.

Tamuz, I keep my vote on you for now, mainly because I still suspect you, but also because if are a townie, a similar lesson might be good for you.

Personally, I have no problem with the way you behaved at the beginning of Newbie 99. (Well, except for those long essays. You should be considerate of people coming as replacement on the end of day 2...) If you want to use pure logic, do it, but share your logic with us, don't hide. Not really saying anything at all unless you have pure information, as a strategy, is much much worse. Mainly because it is very convenient for a scum to say (s)he is doing that and keep low profile.

EYNH, I agree that using tautologies is scummy, but when newbies do it it's hard to tell.

LML, just a reminder, my FOS on you still holds You have much to explain to me and to others.

[Stam]

WOW!
There is only one thing to say:

unvote: Tamuz
Vote: LoudmouthLee

[Stam]

ok, I will be more articulate.
I know a lot about making mistakes under pressure.
Mr. Flay can tell you about things I did which are much worse than your post.
The two differences are:

1) You are much more experienced than myself. When you do things like that it raises questions.
2) You weren't really under pressure. There was no vote on you, just some FOSes.

For now, my vote on you stands.

[Stam]

I had noone cauching me.
I learned from my mistakes there as I am learning from my sheep mistake here.
After your post #50, I was about 100% sure LML was a scum falling into a self-contradicting trap. This is why I was so quick to follow you.
Frankly, I am strating to have cold feet about that and I realize experienced players can make mistakes too.
I will keep my vote, because I still suspect LML more than anyone else here, but I am much less sure about it now.

[Stam]

Kain, there was a vote count on post #53.
The only thing changed is that I switched from Tamuz to LML, so now Tamuz has 0 votes and LML has 2 votes. If you switch to LML too it would be a third vote.
I advise you not to do it until we hear the others.
If LML is a townie, a scum can just keep low profile and let the town do the dirty work. We should not allow that.

[Stam]

I still don't know whether LML is a scum, but in both cases Kain's behavior looks scummy. It is possible that they are scums together and Kain is trying to associate himself with the bandwagon on LML without actually joining it. It is also possible that LML is innocent and Kain is trying to get him lynched but hope someone would do the job for him. Kain's behavior was scummy from the beginning. I used to think it was just a newbie attitude, but now I think he really knows what he is doing, and it doesn't look good.
I suspect both LML and Kain, but between the two I think it is Kain who should have three votes on.

unvote: LoudmouthLee
Vote: Kain

Note: this is a third vote on Kain, unless someone unvotes, the next vote will have him lynched

[Stam]

You were set to defend Kain?
Up until now you completely ignored the bandwagon on Kain.
You didn't say anything for or against it.
As if it didn't exist.
There are only two explanation I can think of for why you were doing that.
One possiblity is that you are a townie and you thought Kain had some power role. In this case, now you have no excuse, and I still don't see why you didn't say

anything

about Kain.
The other much much more likely possibility is that you two are working together and you try to defend Kain by diverting the discussion back to you.
Anyway, I want to hear the defence you claim you were all set to make.

[Stam]

Kain,
I still think that the most likely pair is of you and LML.
It best explains both your behaviors.
Also, your tendency to accuse everyone who votes for you looks very scummy to me.
If you are indeed a townie, though, I want to tell you that I totally understand what you are going through. It is really hard defending yourself under such a pressure. I will give you the advice Mr. Flay gave me then - don't give up! Keep defending yourself and keep trying to search for the mafia for as long as you are still alive in this game.
I will now try to give you the opportunity I wasn't given and

unvote

, at least for now.
I want to see some more of how you behave with less pressure on you.
I will try to open my mind to possibilities other than the LML/Kain pair.
big_K, I want to hear more about your LML/EYNH theory or any other theory anyone might have.
My only problem with this is this is that day 1 is taking too long already, but I think we do need to explore other directions.

[Stam]

I was a scum for less than 24 hours. And not a very good one.

I am not sure if big_k is lurking, 2 posts out of 20 is not such a small number.
I do agree that he doesn't contribute much to the conversation.
I also looked at his last posts and it looks like in many cases he enters the site, writes in many threads, but doesn't write anything here.
Is this scummy? I don't know. I once played a game (Newbie 100) where both Pinky and Halo Freak were behaving like that. Eventually Pinky came out to be a townie and Halo Freak was a scum. I had a very hard time pinlinching there.

Bottom line - this behavior is not necessarily scummy, but it should be discouraged.

I think that the pairs big_k/Kain and big_k/EYNH both make some sense, but I still think the pair LML/Kain explains a lot more.

[Stam]

I was a scum for less than 24 hours. And not a very good one.

I am not sure if big_k is lurking, 2 posts out of 20 is not such a small number.
I do agree that he doesn't contribute much to the conversation.
I also looked at his last posts and it looks like in many cases he enters the site, writes in many threads, but doesn't write anything here.
Is this scummy? I don't know. I once played a game (Newbie 100) where both Pinky and Halo Freak were behaving like that. Eventually Pinky came out to be a townie and Halo Freak was a scum. I had a very hard time pinlinching there.

Bottom line - this behavior is not necessarily scummy, but it should be discouraged.

I think that the pairs big_k/Kain and big_k/EYNH both make some sense, but I still think the pair LML/Kain explains a lot more.

[Stam]

I was a scum for less than 24 hours. And not a very good one.

I am not sure if big_k is lurking, 2 posts out of 20 is not such a small number.
I do agree that he doesn't contribute much to the conversation.
I also looked at his last posts and it looks like in many cases he enters the site, writes in many threads, but doesn't write anything here.
Is this scummy? I don't know. I once played a game (Newbie 100) where both Pinky and Halo Freak were behaving like that. Eventually Pinky came out to be a townie and Halo Freak was a scum. I had a very hard time pinlinching there.

Bottom line - this behavior is not necessarily scummy, but it should be discouraged.

I think that the pairs big_k/Kain and big_k/EYNH both make some sense, but I still think the pair LML/Kain explains a lot more.

[Stam]

I have a problem posting here.

[Stam]

ok, I see this site is having some problems.
This is not the best time for lurker-hunting.

[Stam]

Stam, I’m not sure quite yet. I have to

cautch

the bus in 9 minutes. So I don’t have time to write analysis of him.

Was this spelling error intentional?

[Stam]

ok, I guess it was a typo.
I just had a feeling you were trying to hint on the coaching theory in some wierd way, and I didn't know what to think about it.

[Stam]

Kain,
my idea when unvoting you was to see a bit more of your behavior with less pressure on you.
Since then you thanked me and then fell into a long silence.
This is not the kind of response I was looking for.
When I said I will try to open my mind to possibilities other than the LML/Kain pair I meant for you to take a part in this discussion.

[Stam]

Kain,
let me get this straight - you were silent for 86 hours because you were banned from the computer, and when you were allowed back it happened to be less than half an hour after I adressed you? Very unlikely.
The only reason I don't kill you right now is that I don't want to end the day while Mr. Flay is away.

[Stam]

There is no reason to contiue with this yo-yo.
Someone has to pull the trigger, and it might as well be me.

vote: Kain

Jumping once after your name is mentioned is the #1 tell of lurkers and all he has to say to explain it is miracles and more accusations.

big_k, I agree that when EYNH started the bandwagon on Kain there was no much of a case against him, but everything he did since then is very scummy.
By now I am quite certain he is a scum. Certain enough to make the kill.

The behavior of LML here is very wierd, but we will have to deal with it tomorrow.

[Stam]

I will not believe it until I hear it from whoever will be the mod, but I agree that Kain has no reason to lie now, so it doesn't look good. A pity. I was really sure I got it this time. I guess scum-hunting is not

that

easy.
And yes, of course, if we find ourselves in a LynchOrLose tomorrow - start with FOSs, not votes.

[Stam]

I think LML is a better choice for cop investigation, but I want to hear more opinions.

[Stam]

I don't want the attention off of EYNH.
In fact, if you are indeed innocent, I agree with big_k that the pair LML/EYNH is most likely. I just think the LML made more wierd posts, so I prefer if he gets investigated.
You want to investigate EYNH - noted.
LML want to be investigated himself - noted.
I want more opinions, especially from the more experienced players.

[Stam]

Good morning.
I do have some clear suspision here, but I will wait until we hear from everyone.
For now I wil

FOS: NanookTheWolf

. Is it because esme doubted

your

manhood that you pick on to big_k?

[Stam]

I was mainly trying to see if LML and EYNH keep their lurking strategy from yesterday, which they did so far.
But I don't think I will wait any longer. Indeed, I am not saying here more than carrying my thought from yesterday as you put it.

FoS: LML and EYNH

, with a slightly bigger FoS on LML.

LML

Why did you keep acting as if you were forced to vote Kain, when no one was actually forcing you to do that? I reread your posts and it really looks as if you

knew

Kain was innocent all along.

EYNH

Ok, you started a bandwagon on Kain for a reason that intentionally wasn't supposed to make much sense, let's say I believe you that you really thought this is a good strategy. Why did you then leave it for Tamuz and me to continue the interogation of Kain? Why didn't you show your face? Why did you only say that at twilight?

[Stam]

Mr. Flay - I am not sure what you meant by me being inconsistent. Can you elaborate on that?

EYNH - Although I still suspect you, I must say your confusion sounds genuine. If you are a scum, you are very good in acting confused.

LML - post or I will vote.

mod

- can you prod LoudmouthLee, just in case he doesn't know we dawned? (not that I believe that)

[Stam]

My list goes as follows

1. LML
2. EYNH
3. Mr. Flay
4. Tamuz

I did not threat LML in order to alleviate anyone's suspision. I did it because it looks like the only way to get him to talk. It's funny that Mr. Flay sees this as an indication that I am a scum with LML and Tamuz sees this as an indication that I am a scum with EYNH.

Tamuz, I said confusion. Not confession. EYNH looked confused when trying to guess who the scums are, and I think confusion is hard to fake, but maybe I am wrong. If you think EYNH is a better target than LML, make your case. I am listening. You didn't give any good argument today besides "previously discussed reason of EYNH's supposed scummyness".

Mr. Flay looks a bit too interested me going ahead and voting on LML. This ring little alarms in my head. But still, my threat is valid. If LML doesn't post - I will vote.

[Stam]

Hey hey! My internet died teh last few days, and Time Warner just came to fix it!

Switch to Verizon DSL.

Ok, I will not vote on you for now, although I can't say I got much information from your post. Random accusations and random "hunch". It looks like you know you are doomed and you already try to play WIFOM. what about answering any of the questions you were asked?
Anyway, I just observed something that might imply EYNH is a better lynch than you. I need to gather more information to be sure.

Mr. Flay - I try to be as insightful as I can, but yes, I still make mistakes. Killing Kain of cousre was one of them, but I don't understand why you say I did that "suddenly". We were yo-yoing around Kain for several days. I said I was going to kill him once you come back, and nothing happened in the mean time that could indicate his innocence. You said my threat on LML was a bonehead's gem - maybe you are right, I really don't know. I just don't like it when the two most likely being the scums sit back and watch us without taking a part in the conversation or at least answer the questions directed to them.

[Stam]

Hey hey! My internet died teh last few days, and Time Warner just came to fix it!

Switch to Verizon DSL.

Ok, I will not vote on you for now, although I can't say I got much information from your post. Random accusations and random "hunch". It looks like you know you are doomed and you already try to play WIFOM. what about answering any of the questions you were asked?
Anyway, I just observed something that might imply EYNH is a better lynch than you. I need to gather more information to be sure.

Mr. Flay - I try to be as insightful as I can, but yes, I still make mistakes. Killing Kain of cousre was one of them, but I don't understand why you say I did that "suddenly". We were yo-yoing around Kain for several days. I said I was going to kill him once you come back, and nothing happened in the mean time that could indicate his innocence. You said my threat on LML was a bonehead's gem - maybe you are right, I really don't know. I just don't like it when the two most likely being the scums sit back and watch us without taking a part in the conversation or at least answer the questions directed to them.

[Stam]

YOU are the cop?
I was sure Tamuz was the cop finding EYNH guility.
That would explain his behavior.

[Stam]

This certainly isn't the first time I've alluded to you being a lurker, why the fuss about it now?

No reason.
This is exactly my point. No reason.
Everything LML is doing seems to be completely random. The only way I could explain it is that he is playing WineInFrontOfMe realizeing he is very likely to be lynched today and attempting to make us more confused after his death. Our best responce to this is to just ignore it.

LML, if you want me to consider your innocence, start making posts with a bit more content. If you count the posts, maybe you have about the same number of posts as Tamuz, but when it comes to content - Tamuz beats you by far.

Anyway, since Tamuz is claiming no-cop, I will assume Mr. Flay is the cop, at least for now.

[Stam]

Wow, Mr. Flay, you really

are

thorough.
There is still a small chance you are lying, but all signs are that you aren't, so this leaves me with one clear pair:

LML and Tamuz

, and I am ready to vote on any one of them. I understand from your post that I will have a hard time conviencing you of that. I will, of course, be happy to answer any question you or EYNH might have.

One thing I didn't get from your post - where did Tamuz make it clear he wasn't a cop? I missed that.

You say that we have 66% chance - maybe today, but in order to win we need to be right today AND tomorrow - so we have only 33%

Anyway, I second your call:

EnterYourNameHere

- please, come on and help. If you don't have time to read it all, at least read what Mr. Flay wrote.

Things don't look good, but I hope I will eventually sucseed in convincing you two in my innocence.

[Stam]

LML, it's nice to finally see some content in your posts.
Yes, indeed there is still a possibility that Mr. Flay is lying, but I find the pair of you with Tamuz much more likely than any pair of Mr. Flay and someone. If Flay is a scum, I see no reason why he went on such an adventure. I know that you know Mr. Flay much better than myself but I really don't trust you enough to give a character testamony of Mr. Flay right now. If you can point out any game where he went on an adventure as bold as what you suggest he is doing here, please share it with us.

Tamuz - my 33% remark was just simple probability. If we assume the two scums are two of you LML and myself, and we lynch one of us at random, we have 66% of lynching a scum. Then tomorrow, assuming Mr. Flay dies and is found to be a cop then EYNH will be a confirmed townie having 50% of lynching right. In order for town to win we need to succeed in

both

lynches, and the probability for that is 33%. Of course, things here are more complicated. We have more information and we don't lynch at random, and on the other hand we have this theory of LML, but just theoretically, the number 33% is right. I hope I explained myself well.
I am not as optimistic as Mr. Flay about EYNH's pinlynch tomorrow. I think it will be at least as hard as today's lynch if not even harder.

Mr. Flay, with the information that was in my hands at that time there was no way I could see Tamuz's post as a no-cop claim. It could very easily mean he is a cop finding EYNH guility. In that case, the phrase "no one is discounted" just means that anyone could be EYNH's partner.

[Stam]

ok, Mr. Flay, I took your reading assignment.
I looked at your past games.
Newbie 73, indeed doesn't resemble this game in any way.
The closest I got was Mini 142, where Mr. Flay's partner, Internet Stranger, claimed cop in a LOL situation. It looks to me like this was an unnecessary risk, but I didn't read the thread enough to know for sure. It would be interesting to know if this was discussed over night or this was IS's solo initiative.
Anyway, no, I don't think this might suggest Mr. Flay would do a similar thing here. I know that some paople would be offended by such a suggstion. Unless I get some new evidence, it looks quite clear to me that Mr. Flay is the cop, and that means the scums are LML and Tamuz.
I noticed that both LML and Tamuz brought out the idea that if Mr. Flay doesn't die tonight, we should lynch him tomorrow. I guess they want to see if EYNH or myself agree with this aproach, which gives them a sure win. I do have an opinion of what to do if this happens, but I will not share it with you and I advise EYNH not to share his opinion either.
If you want to keep Mr. Flay alive tonight, you are very welcome to do so.

[Stam]

Vote: LoudmouthLee

die scum!!

[Stam]

BAHHHH!!!!!!

[Stam]

I told you LML was a scum!

WOW, I can't believe we pulled it off.
LML, I am still blushing from all these complements, but I must say I worked with the best of the best.
And yes, I really attacked you like crazy. At some points I thought I was going too far, especially when it made Mr. flay suspect, but eventually it did work.
Working under Mr. Flay's nose was really hard. I needed to consider every word.
Tamuz, we didn't know what to think of your gambit on day 1 twilight (I would call it a "reverse WIFOM"). We decided to just ignore it. We killed big_k because he was the most innocent looking (more than Mr. Flay IMO) for refusing to give a hand in killing Kain.
At the beginning of day 2 it really drove me crazy that I didn't know who the cop was and who he investigated. I needed to be prepared for every possibility. At some point I thought it was Tamuz finding Mr. Flay innocent, but then Mr. Flay himself claimed. At that point it was quite obvious he found EYNH innocent, but I actually hoped it would be LML or myself being investigated. It would then be very easy to backstab the found scum and kill EYNH on day 3.
EYNH, I wouldn't want to be in your place with the pinlynch at the endgame. I don't know what I would do.
And Kain, I can really relate to the way you felt under the attack. It is really hard being in such a position. It looks like "mod, are you sure there are only two scums here?". Nothing personal, I was just doing my job.

This was really a fun game. Full of adrenalin. You all played very well. Being a scum is a real fun, and LML is the best partner to do it with.

GO SCUM!

[Stam]

Tamuz - WIFOM stands for Wine In Front Of Me. This means that information comes from someone who is clearly doen't want to give you correct information. For example, I could say, right before I was lynched something like "Tamuz, good luck tomorrow, GO SCUM!". Then EYNH would think, "he said Tamuz is his partner, but he is a scum, so probably he is lying and LML is his partner, but maybe he

wants

me to think that, so Tamuz is his partner..." etc.
This is confusing, and the best approach is to just ignore something like that. I decided not to play such a game because it looked like things were fine as they were.
What you did saying that you have no power role was also WIFOM, but in the other direction - from a townie addressed at the mafia (but it could confuse the doctor as well).

Mr. Flay - I recall you said something about "calling my bluff" when I threatened LML, what did you mean by that?