Last-to-confirm scumtell

[EmpTyger]

Based on Battousai's sampling

P(Town last to confirm) = 14/20 = 70%
P(mafia last to confirm) = 5/20 = 25%
P(SK last to confirm) = 1/20 = 5%

Assuming a 8:3:1 setup

P(random player is town) = 67%
P(random player is mafia) = 25%
P(random player is SK) = 8%

The only thing that can be concluded from this data is that there is a very high probability that the last player who confirms has a role in the game.

Missed a game, corrected in later post

[EmpTyger]

Based on Battousai's sampling

P(Town last to confirm) = 12.5/18 = 69%
P(mafia last to confirm) = 4.5/18 = 25%
P(SK last to confirm) = 1/18 = 6%

Assuming a 8:3:1 setup

P(random player is town) = 67%
P(random player is mafia) = 25%
P(random player is SK) = 8%

The only thing that can be concluded from this data is that there is a very high probability that the last player who confirms has a role in the game.


Methodology revisions:
1) Don't accidentally skip a game
2) For the games with simultaneous last-to-confirms, count each as .5, although it should be noted that the results are still insignificant at 1

Re Adel's point: "not picking up a role PM" is not a separate behavior from "last to confirm". It's just the mod imposing a [here] undefined time limit for the behavior.

[EmpTyger]

Flay: If that mrrrr is directed at me, note what my conclusion actually stated. My [perhaps too facetiously made] point is that this data is inconclusive.

Fonz: Collected data can’t be excluded just because it happens to not fit one hypothesis. For all we know, every player in all 18 games here confirmed 20 seconds after picking up their role, but because of the variation in players checking their PMs and mod’s setting deadlines, this happened too late in 6 instances. You can’t throw out those cases because of factor X, when you have no idea whether factor X was present in the other 15 cases.

Herodotus: If we're ignoring the small sample size in the name of facetiousness, then the only other thing that can be concluded from this data is that there is a very high probability that a player who doesn’t read their role PM has a role in the game.