Mini 809 ~ Mafia ViPod (Game Over!)

[Moriarty147]

This is definetly not a confirmation post.

[Moriarty147]

Yeah, prods/forced replacements/modkills are needed. I mean come on this game should have started already!

[Moriarty147]

I'm think I'm not ho-ing it up enough. Suggestions?

Get a Santa suit and put on some weight. No wait, that would be

ho-ho-ho

'ing it up. Sorry, no idea.

More seriously, the fact that hasdgfas basically publicly implied that he had a night action is slightly strange, you'd typically not want to give that away at the very beginning of D1. Any reasoning why you couldn't have PMed that question to the moderator instead, hascow, as opposed to posting it in the thread?

Finally,

##Vote: pesco47

as he's always scum.

[Moriarty147]

Because implying you have a night action is a way to make yourself look like potential town and thus avoid being lynched.

Ugh, except this is a crap way of trying to avoid getting yourself lynched and I have no clue why you're pushing it so hard, VP.

Furthermore, the issue I have with softclaiming on D1 is why would you do that, ever? It basically guarantees you being the N1 NK.

[Moriarty147]

hascow is still strange and I'm not sure what his motivation was, I do want to know what PaperPenguin was trying to imply by his comment about baiting NKs to the "low-hanging fruit", Empking is universally horrible but I feel we have better targets today (i.e. SOMEONE VIG HIM PLEASE).

First off, VPB/e_k:

Regarding VP Baltar, I do think his actions are unwarranted rolefishing but I don't think they're enough to make him scummy, at this point. The rapidly-climbing wagon on him does imply that it's v. likely for there to be scum on the wagon (even if it *is* a bus attempt), taking a look at the votes up to VPB's post #99 it seems as if he managed to garner 3 (three) votes during the RVS, which is definetly something to note. (2 have unvoted since, as for the third: Sotty7: do you think that your vote is still best kept on VPB?)

As for e_k, she definetly seemed to be quite happy with playing gotcha games with VPB. Her comments seemed less intent on actually determining alignment and more on trying to "trap" VPB by tricking him into making a statement that made him seem scummy (as well as further rolefishing).

Ultimately I think VPB is town atm, and e_k may potentially be scum. I'm uncertain of this and don't think she's worthy of my vote at this point, though. There is a distinct possibility that they may be both scum in a D1 argument, mainly due to the way that e_k is handling things (a bit of overreaction as far as I can tell)

Regarding pesco, I second the request for more clarification regarding his case: in post #98 you claim to find VPB and e_k suspicious, but the way you word things in it seems to me as if you are considering either one or the other to be scum (in fact, based off the argument, it does seem that way, at least at first). Then in 105 you claim that you suspect that both of them may be scum, so...are you considering a VPB/e_k scumteam? And if yes, why?

Vote staying until I see another post.

Have nothing else really to comment on anyone else, except for the fact that wasn't that one game you're referring to in 108 a barrel of laughs, FL?

[Moriarty147]

Yay, I've been up for 40 hours and not really in a state to do proper mafia analysis so there may be some minor errors in this post. First off, what I'm wondering is...Empking has been universally horrible and done nothing at all this game (seriously Empking do everyone a favour and go jump off a bridge or something. Or ask for replacement at least.), hascow has actually created the same amount of

content

as him, once you exclude the early D1 spat with VP Baltar over the night action, which is quite worrying.

PP also does not do anything to endear himself to me at the moment. Hate basically all of his arguments. Hate his explanation for what he was trying to say in his post of "let's have the mafia kill the low-hanging fruit" and how it turned into essentially a crap post of Here Are A Bunch Of Hateful Roles, hascow was likely one of them because of a really bad attempt at using deduction!

Not sure if pesco is still the most scummy at the moment. Hascow and PP both need a re-investigation. Will post again when I've had some actual sleep.

[Moriarty147]

Finally had enough time to sit down, read through things and post.

First off, when I made my previous post, in no way did I claim to clear pesco47, in fact, I was still perfectly fine with him being the D1 lynch at that time and did not think he was now Likely Town. I merely stated that I thought there were better targets to pursue, and that I was going to properly expand on this (and move my vote, if PP/Hascow really *did* wind up being more likely to be scum than pesco after my latest reread and analysis.)

Finally, any scum trying to pull off a quickhammer

On Day 1

is a moron who will promptly get lynched the next day. Therefore I see very little danger in leaving people at L-2 on D1 for even extendend periods of time. Even if scum do coordinate a quickhammer it will almost certainly screw them over the very next day.

Anyway! First order of business is the image overreaction to my post. Personally, his immediate response to it seems a bit of a "Gotcha!" style thing and it does take a bit of reading into what I said to get that result. That being said, it is a plausible interpretation of what I said, combined with being a rather...weak argument (are you implying that it makes me scummy, for instance? If yes, why no ##Vote?), and furthermore Sotty7 brings up the point that...how do you know that it would necessarily be a mis-lynch?

Later post again brings up the point of a turbo-lynch of pesco, which, again, see my comment about a quickhammer of someone on Day Freaking One being completely freaking idiotic.

Granted, his later post does improve his opinions of him in my eye again. Going to put him under IGMEOY territory, but I doubt he's scum atm. Certainly not the ideal lynch target for today, in any order.

On the other hand, PP...

Post 114 states that you think that hascow was deliberately trying to bait the NK. To be honest, I actually had (and still have) this opinion, hence me being v. perplexed at his post earlier in the thread. What I don't like is how this is coupled with very blatant rolefishing that actually seems like a scum trying to figure out if he should NK hascow N1 after all, or not.

In post 126 we have the following phrase:

1.) Trying to place yourself in the mafia's shoes is what every townie should aspire to do.

I do agree with this, it's one of the main methods by which one can catch scum.

But then, you continue onwards to...

Trying to look as town as possible though, is bordering on the mafia mindset. If I was mafia then that would be what I would do; I find it strange that you would look at even trying to predict mafia actions as scummy. Bad logic indeed, image.

The first part is just the Too Townie fallacy. There is no reason why a townie should ever look

deliberately scummy

, that is utter nonsense. Don't do that shit, ever. This is followed up with a classical Argumentum ad Hitlerum (If I was mafia, I would be trying to lynch people, therefore lynching people is bad and we should all vote no lynch every time!), and a statement which I actually do agree with, namely that trying to predict mafia actions is, while usually a pile of WIFOM, not inheritly scummy in and of itsself.

It's just so strange how everything is worded, though. It seems like a deliberate attempt to make image sound scummy.

In 163 he votes image for what he claims to be "potentially an OMGUS, but he wouldn't know". What does this even mean, really? Is it an OMGUS, or is it not one? Do you legitimately think that image is scum? And would it take so long to specify which post number is the one with your reasons for voting him? Seriously.

One thing worthy of note is that in Post #156 Sotty7 calls his vote on VPB a "random" vote, whereas he dispelled this claim when I asked him about it earlier. Is this just an issue of semantics here, Sotty7, or what? Furthermore, what's your opinion on VPB now.

Pesco is only concentrating on VPB/e_k again and not being v. clear on why they are scummy beyond "lol arguing" "lol scumteam" and a bit of psycholinguistics (which may be valid, but still). So what are your opinions on people

not

named "VP Baltar" or "elvis_knits", pesco?

I am curious why the blowfish has not done any analysis on some of today's main targets, like VPB/e_k, or pesco, or PP. I understand that you're busy, but I would definetly like to see more input from you about people not named Empking (no matter how f$%#$%$#ing hateful Empking is). Explicitly stating that you don't want to take sides is bad, because while they all

do

have scummy merits, it has the appearance that you're reluctant to say anything lest it potentially connect you to someone who may be on your scumteam.

Post 190 has Sotty7 making a good point about X and image, another instance of IGMEOY on image for me at this point, really.

As for hascow, I find his claim that Sotty7 is trying to be UTR rather laughable, I don't see this at all, in fact Sotty7 seems to be present quite often and seems to consistently make solid posts, at least so far (inb4 chainsaw defence). That being said, I can't see why Sotty7 went on hascow's case about trying to tie in our good friend the blowfish to image just based off a single line asking for more opinions. More interestingly, she mentions herself and f-light, but not pesco, despite all 3 being mentioned in the same line from hascow.

In 199, I am wondering why hascow would think that not posting an opinion about a player immediately is necessarily the right thing to do (in fact in almost all of the scenarios I keep thinking up, this is blatantly anti-town and the classic case of a mafian making sure his lies are consistent across posts), so I would definetly like an explanation from hascow on this point.

I somewhat dislike e_k defending me so strongly in post 204, but the points *are* valid so ultimately no complains there.

Finally, Empking, can you just go die, seriously. You're about to take the "most useless player" award from its current candidate in my mind, and this is not a good thing. Since it seems there are no vigs, I actually do support an Empking lynch on D1, as I really do not want him around in the game later.

The issue is that, we have bigger fish to fry right now. So here's the TL;DR version of my above post:
- Image is slightly weird in his post and definetly warrants close watching, but I don't think he's scummy just for it.
- PP has managed to do massive rolefishing, bizarre posts, inconsistent posts and seems to be perfectly happy with justifying his vote solely by means of an OMGUS. At this point,

##Unvote, ##Vote: PaperPenguin

- Pesco is still my second target for a lynch today. My reasons for this are largely the same as e_k's in 204.
- Strangely enough, my next most likely target for scum would be, actually, e_k. The way she's interacting with pesco makes it seem as she is trying to artificially push pesco's lynch. The issue is that this is just gut and doesn't have enough justification, but if I was to have a 1vig and be forced to use it right now, she would be my target.
- VPB, Sotty7 and Juls are all likely town at this point, though I want more input from Juls on people who are not named "Pesco47" or "Empking".
- hascow...needs to post more content. I can't seem to get a read on him at all right now too, which is worrying when combined with some of his weirdness (not the least of which is his softclaim).
- X seems to actually be doing a semi-decent job at skirting under the radar, and his QFT of image regarding my post is worrying (especially when coupled with the claim that he doesn't necessarily think that my post was scummy - yet image seems to be at least insinuating in that post that I was a possible scum due to it). Basically, he needs to post more and offer opinions on more people. I do want to hear what he thinks of me specifically, as well as why that post of mine could be considered scummy.
- Empking needs to go die in a fire.

Finally,

---Moriarty147 has been prodded off a cliff with his arch-nemesis.

You win for this.

[Moriarty147]

While I dislike Empking about as much as everyone else here and do agree that today is the day to get rid of him, I am surprised that there is little opposition to lynching someone this early in the day, especially after we've already had one day pass and gotten an alignment flip, which really does make me wonder about things.

Proper post later.

[Moriarty147]

I do find it very strange that in this post image tosses Empking an FoS, yet today he is nothing but wishy-washy about him. It's true that a player like Empking is argh for anyone who has not dealt with people like this before, but it's still inexcuseable for image not actually having any reasons to suspect

anyone

, beyond Juls's weirdness with Empking.

In any order, due to math conference, I am going to be

V/LA until Saturday evening.

Much apology, sorry.

[Moriarty147]

JUST got back, literally minutes ago. Doing a full read of the thread since I left and posting, nobody hammer until then.

[Moriarty147]

The amount of votes VP got in the RVS combined with e_k's comment about how "Apparently your buddies are reluctant to buss you, VP." (every time someone has made a comment about buddies not bussing someone in D1 so far it has turned out that they were scumbuddies with that person, which is worrying in this case, especially considering the VPB/e_k argument D1) makes me a bit nervous.

D1 wagon analysis has turned up something interesting:
Both VPB and Juls never voted PP at all. Juls wasn't around much near the end of D1, which explains that, whereas VPB claimed to want to do a reread before the day was cut short by the hammer. As a result, I'm starting to think that VPB might be Town, given that PP was perfect lynchbait at that time and a vote would not be seen as strange at all around this time in D1.

Early D2 we start out with a turbolynch of Empking. Really no issue here, the way Empking is playing is hateful and there is virtually no way to properly read him barring a cop investigation of some form, not to mention I do not want him in endgame at all. As a result, I'm quite comfortable with his lynch, especially when he thinks that e_k is scum for reasons "he cannot recall". I mean seriously.

Looking back at VPB's wagon peak analysis in 295, we come across some interesting questions. Like PP's wagon: he was basically lynchalicious, he had made enough mistakes to justify a lynch of himself easily, and from that point onwards he just kept putting his foot in his damn mouth. So as a result, scum would likely be near the beginning of that wagon, which gives more reason to suspect image.

From post 306,

Side Note: Empking not dying N1 means that either

Empking is NK immune

or that there is no Vig. If there is another alternative, I am oblivious to it.

Buh? What about the third possibility, that Empking simply wasn't the NK target? If I was scum he certainly wouldn't be on my priority list for NKs given how he's a free lynch. Or the fourth one, that Empking himself is scum. No matter how many times I read this sentence, it seems very horribly weird and I can't seem to explain it away as either something Town would say or something Scum would say.

I really don't give a crap if Empking's a Jester or not, Jester's a hateful role that can go die in a fire for all I care, and therefore I can't see why Juls would get +1 scumpoint

for bringing the point up at all

in post 310, forbiddanlight?

Furthermore, your vote for Juls in 324 seems a bit out-of-nowhere, VPB.

hascow:

First off, we have the /sarcasm tag. While I understand that people use this, I always find it scummy, because one thing that I've found is that subconsciously, scum want to tell you they're scum, and will say something only scum would say, but hide it as a joke.

This is the relevant quote from image:

I too am suspicious of Elvis for reasons Empking can't recall; this seems like a very iron-clad case, and I'm wondering why Elvis hasn't been lynched yet.[/sarcasm]

This isn't trying to "hide something scum would say", this is openly mocking an absolutely idiotic statement of Empking. How does this give image scumpoints? The second point I do agree with, image is getting a bit wary about Empking (I brought this up in post 345, and it seems to not have been answered in a satisfactory manner by image yet)

In 339, X makes a bunch of points about Juls being scum

that are all dependent on Empking being scum

, but does put his money where is mouth is and votes Empking, even going as far to ask others why they are voting Juls instead of Empking. +1 goodposting, though the fact that he did not elaborate on that quote from 306 despite it being brought up on the previous page by VPB is slightly strange.

Not getting your logic in 348, VPB. I'm not sure why it's "obvious" that this would implicate her as scum, given how mafia works by definition there are always going to be some townies on townie wagons, and therefore I'm not sure why the threat of *gasp* being on TWO WHOLE TOWNIE WAGONS, especially on people who are either being suspicious as all hell (PP) or playing beyond horribly (Empking) in earlygame would make her be worried enough to try to make a really awkward wagon jump off of Empking on D2.

Wrong. Empking isn't really trying to protect himself.

Buh? What? What the heck do you mean by this? Empking seems to be quite adamant at least by what he says that he's Town and does not want to be lynched because then you'd be lynching a Town player.

Even Empking scum hunts in other games even if it is unconventional.

Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyno.

So my final conclusions? Empking needs to die today, if solely for the fact that he seems to be completely unwilling to play, is not readable at all, cannot seem to do any analysis beyond "jump on the leading wagon" and "attempt to save self by means of jumping on any other wagon that's developing" and does not seem to attempt to correct this and try harder, despite us trying to get him to actually

play the damn game

. This combined with his claim basically means that I am not averse to lynching him at all, and as a result am comfortable with hammering him if the battery meter drops below 10% at any time.

After that? Head says Juls, Heart says VPB. Juls is incredibly wishy-washy, and has created a really awkward attack on VPB, all while not doing much to endear herself at all. However, a lot of what she's done

can

be explained away by Jester-paranoia and general laziness at playing the game, and as a result I'm not terribly sure if she is that likely of a scum. VPB...despite the evidence making him look Townie, for some reason I'm very nervous about him for some reason gut-wise. I'm not sure why, but it's definetly something to keep my eye on for the rest of the game.

Other than those 3, image is still unnerving for being quasi-lurktastic, combined with the fact that he's been playing this game from an observer's standpoint to some degree. Definetly want more posts from him, ideally soon.

Finally, people in general need to post more. Also, X, are you a math major as well?

[Moriarty147]

So you think that VPB and EK are scum together?

The possibility has been there in my mind since early D1, yeah. It's a minor possibility and imho not worth following at the moment, but it's still a possibility.

You do realize what a Vig is?

Fixed the tags again. ~Vi

Oh, the implication being that only a Vig would NK Empking was there. That'll teach me to make posts while extremely sleep-deprived.

Read the thread, please.

I did catch 368, but I thought it unsatisfactory as it seems that

all

of Emping's posts are approximately this deep, and therefore this isn't a tell in either direction for him.