Mini 737 - Hack Poetry Mafia (Game Over)
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Just chiming in to say I'm still reading - taking a little longer than I thought.
Just wanted to nip this in the bud real quick
DO is chock full of bad ideas, and is very good at looking like scum when he's town. I've played with him twice, which happen to be his only 2 completed games on the site (I think). The first game we lynched him for being obvscum. He was townie, I was townie. The second game he was up to his same antics, I vouched for him, explaining how his play in the game can't be a tell on his allignment either way due to his playstyle. Nearly everyone else wanted to lynch him. I said there was no way I was supporting his lynch. I talked the town out of lynching DO, and he got a guilty investigation that night as cop. I was vanilla town.I am most suspicious of DO, who declared that we should lynch a freshly-claimed doc "just to see", followed by a bit of floundering then total abandonment, followed by a no-show from his replacement. I'm totally willing to put my vote down on his slot on that basis, though I'm willing to see what Rhinox has to say first.
So... DO's suggestion to lynch a claimed doc may or may not be a bad idea - I haven't gotten that far yet - but its definitely not something that would indicate to me that I thought he was scum.
The abandonment is also a null tell. The first game I played with DO, when the pressure got a little too strong, he turned tail and ran. The more pressure, the more he floundered, until he insulted everyone and asked to be replaced. Again, he was town.
The no show from his first replacement is so not a scum tell that without even reading the thread, I would vote Spolium just for saying it was. Ok, so I'm not going to do that, but I will be reading Spolium pretty closely.
Here are the 2 games I'm talking about when I refer to DO. I hope you'll at least read DO's posts in isolation in those 2 games - I think you'll see what I mean.
Mini 716
Mini 725
All that being said, is there anything else about DO you guys find scummy other than "He suggested to lynch a claimed doc?" That sounds like a pretty weak reason to call for someone's lynch, considering there are 2 doc claims (very unlikely in a mini, imo) as well as 1 other claim as well, if I'm understanding the little bit I read so far correctly. Why do I get the feeling that there is some role fishing going on - forcing as many people as possible into claiming?-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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From what I've seen, I would say town or scum slots can equally cycle through replacements. However, regardless of allignment, the slot being replaced is usually under suspicion.It has been my observation that scum slots in trouble tend to cycle through more replacements than townie slots, so I'd have to disagree with you.
Anyways... I'm a bit into my read. I'm reading quickly so I know I'm not getting 100% of everything just yet, but one thing I did notice was Spolium jumping in to answer for Budja very early in the game, and seemed a lot like defending him to me. Normally, although it is WIFOM, I would divine that scum wouldn't openly defend their scum partner so obviously and it is more likely that a townie was doing the defending coincidentally. However, the exception would be if the player being defended happens to be a scum power role. Not sure if I'd be comfortable using this to justify a vote on spolium, but it does make me wonder.
Looking back at the lynch wagon, Spolium didn't jump on until after Budja's self vote. Seems like a safe time to jump on the wagon. I'm equally suspicious of millar13's vote on budja - To me, it seemed like he was just trying to hurry the lynch along without discussion.
I'm also suspicious of everyone who wasn't voting for Budja, since budja was a scum PR - don, fhq, plonky, and Goat. Goat stuck out to me because he was advocating wanting to vote, and didn't see the merit in discussion until deadline. It seemed the reason he didn't vote was because he didn't want to do anything to spotlight himself the next day (like hammering when the town wanted to continue discussion.)
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OK, read a little farther. Skipped ahead to the part where Jebus claimed Doc.
Only reason I can see Jebus-scum claiming doc there is because once don claimed watcher, and assuming SL is really a doc, there is no way for the mafia to kill either of them without sacrificing one of their own (SL protects Don, don watches SL). Only thing that confuses me is that Jebus wanting to lynch me/DO doesn't fit with what I would expect Jebus-scum trying to acomplish by claiming doc. Perhaps its just a way to spend another day and save the 2-doc drama for tomorrow? Maybe he thinks the mafia can use the doc doc watcher string to their advantage tonight, knowing one of their own is in there?
Lets suppose we ignore the 2 docs for the time being, knowing there has to be at least 1 more scum in the game - probably 2 if the 2 docs are real. Who else could be scum?
To be quite honest, I'm really quite confused in this whole mess, between the rhyming at the beginning, and the dueling doc claims. I need more time to think this through and read some more.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Sorry I haven't been more active as of late. Been busy, and replacing in is tough work.
I guess if this is what people are thinking, it would be prudent for me to first examine sekinj and fhq and see if either of them seem scummy to me.goat, RC wrote:sekinj, Rhinox, and fhq would be my top 3 choices for a lynch at this point. I'll review each and decide this weekend sometime.
This seems a bit overdefensive, considering all I did was note something that seemed slightly odd to me in my first skim of a reread.goat wrote:Calling me out for not being on Budja when he was hammered is pretty weak. For all intensive purposes my vote was on him. I didn't see the merit in additional discussion; however, I wasn't going to hammer him if the rest of the game wanted to discuss. I distinctly remember saying that I was going to hold off for X period of time and allow for discussion, and then I would hammer at that point, to avoid any possible no lynchings due to waiting around. If I didn't want to spotlight myself, I wouldn't have said that I think we should just lynch Budja and end the day in the first place. That was contrary to popular opinion and drew me some negative attention as it was.
Rhinox, it looks like you are just going back and looking at the vote count at the end of the day and basing your suspicion off of that. You're missing a lot of the context. The end of the day votecount is pretty meaningless, considering Budja claimed scum prior to that point. What's more important is the vote count prior to his claim.
Nevertheless, what I felt like was you weren't ready to vote Budja until after he basically claimed scum, and then you were all for it, but you wanted the town's blessing before placing your vote.
It could be I've missed some key points - in all likeliness I probably have - but until I have a coherent idea of everything thats happened in this game, I can either sit here and say nothing, or put out little blurps of things that stick out to me. That was one of the things. Doesn't mean I automatically view it as scummy, or that I want you lynched for it, but it seemed like something important to discuss IMO.
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anyways, hopefully I'll be able to post some thoughts on sekinj, fhq or both by tomorrow sometime.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Just out of curiousity, what exactly am I supposed to convince you of? What has DO done thats scummy besides suggesting to lynch a claimed doc?1. DO: replacement doesn't convince me otherwise yet.
The way I see it, suggesting something and doing something are 2 different things - I don't know what DO's true intentions were, or if he seriously wanted to lynch the claimed doc. I know I have made similar crazy suggestions in the past just to spark a hypothetical discussion to see how people would react.
Bigger post coming today, just wanted to throw that out there for now.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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FHQ:
Not too sure what to think. It seems he goes back and forth a bit with his suspicions, especially with RC. Makes me wonder how genuine or serious his suspicions are right now. All in all though, nothing here that would cause me to push for his lynch at this point. Couple questions I have:
So what position does the town have to be in before a policy lynch is acceptable?Really? A policy lynch? In the position town is now? FOS: Deuxieme Octopus
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------All we get out of this is that no one targeted RC last night. Not surprising really.
I don't follow how RC being watched leads to you shelving your suspicions of RC... Why does RC not being targeted make him a less desireable lynch choice, in your opinion?I still find Red a bit scummy, but the watcher claim has put these suspicious somewhat on the backburner. I mean, the results doesn't exonerate him, but I'd feel he could be kept around a bit longer.
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sekinj:
Not too sure here either. I think SL's attack on sekinj was rather silly, but throughout that entire exchange I felt that sekinj was content to just argue back and for with SL instead of scumhunting. Seemed like a way to remain active without actually having to do anything. I also don't like the ad hom attacks.
After the second Doc claim, thats when sekinj's comments peaked my interest the most. First she wanted to speculate about what the setup would have to be to balance to docs. Then she suggested a massclaim, but backpedaled out of it by saying it was probably a bad idea. I think she contradicted herself at one point:Let's think about what the make-up of scum woudl have to be in order to balance 2 docs...I think if we have two docs, we have to have two scum groups... expecially if you throw a town watcher in there as well...
thoughts?
-first quote seems to imply that 2 scum groups makes the scum more powerful to counteract the 2 docs; second quote refutes that.and two scum parties doesn't make the scum stronger anyway, it is more in favor of the town, sicne their power is split up and they are sometimes working against each other.
Also, as someone pointed out, the presence of a mafia GF does not have any effect on balance vs. 2 docs and a watcher. Only a cop, and possibly a vig or sk if the GF is also UNK.
So basically, I find sekinj scummier than fhq, and I would support either of their lynches over my own obviously. But absent the presence of a deadline, and with no one yet being close to a lynch today, I don't really see anything in either fhq's play or sekinj's play that jumps out as being automatically lynchworthy. So I'll be taking my time and considering other players.
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Regarding the 2 doc situation - it has been brought up that 1 might be a mafia doc. A mafia doc would really only be beneficial as a scum PR if there is a town vig, or a second scum group/sk. Otherwise, a mafia doc is useless. Just pointing this out because it will effect how we interpret things later on.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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The point is that there are countless explanations I could come up with for DO's suggestion. Since I know DO's role is town, the explanation doesn't matter to me. Upon rereading, and knowing DO's role, my explanation is modifying. In absence of any context, I would say suggesting to lynch a claimed doc with no counterclaims, especially after this particular claimed doc counterclaimed a scum fake claim, would be a pretty stupid idea for a townie to make. Of course, I don't see how it would benefit scum to make such a suggestion either. Thus, my post about how DO is prone to bad play as town.Spolium wrote:I recall that you cited various examples of DO coming across as scummy despite being town (essentially highlighting poor play to explain his actions), and you later prompted others for their thoughts on his meta.
With this in mind, why are you now implying that DO's controversial suggestion may have been a deliberate attempt to guage reactions? Why do you think, all of a sudden, that DO could have been using his initiative, given your earlier stance on his play? If DO was trying to guage reactions, why would he simply replace out with minimal comment about the affair?
It looks like you're just trying out different justifications for DO's behaviour in the hope that one of them gets you off the hook.
Upon a more complete reread, I can start adding in "or" situations. Such as, "OR, DO was trying to see how players would react." - "OR, maybe DO just didn't believe SL's claim and didn't communicate the message very well." - "OR, maybe DO knew he had to replace out and was trying to be an ass and screw with the town by intentionally playing anti-town". I'm not DO, so I can't just have 1 explanation for his play that I know to be the correct explanation.
(directed at everyone)If you view DO's suggestion as scummy and a lynchable offense, it shouldn't matter what I say, because nothing I can say will be able to change that. If you don't view DO's suggestion as that scummy, or don't see it as a lynchable offense, then again, whatever I say, or how many explanations that are, won't matter.
Of course, I'm going to say whatever I need to say to prevent my own lynch. Contrary to the popular, oppertunistic belief, self-preservation is not a scum tell. It supports my win-con to not be lynched, regardless of which allignment I have. It only becomes a scumtell if you think I would be willing to settle for an "anybody but me" lynch. But I'll come up with as many hypothetical reasons as I have to for why town-DO would make the suggestion he did.
Can you give me one reason for why it would be beneficial for a scum player to suggest to lynch a claimed uncounterclaimed doc?
Would you agree that had some players agreed with DO's plan and a bandwagon formed on spring, that scum could have been found?Spolium wrote:DO suggested lynching Spring and he did place a vote on her, both in the same post. What do you make of this?-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Feel like I'm being accused of something here, but I'm not quite sure what you're saying. Would you mind clarifying for me?sekinj wrote:Does anyone have anything against DO/Rhinox except DO wanting to lynch spring?
That move just strikes me as a replacement wanting to stir up trouble or being bored, or not wanting to read the whole game, ectetera. Does one scumtell a scum make? and to throw a little wifom on the fire - why would scum be that stupid?
Well, I did ask for some reasons scum-DO would make the suggestion. Problem is, I don't see these as likely scenarios. I'll maybe give you the first 1. 2nd or 3rd scenarios don't really seem plausible after just losing a RB, as both situations involve intentially doing something to arouse suspicion. I don't see the first scenario likely either for similar reasons, but I don't think it'll do any good to argue it.spolium wrote:Well, at the time some other players seemed uncertain about Spring's claim, to the point of being suspicious; an inexperienced scum player might have tried to take the opportunity to start a bandwagon under the premise of getting information from a lynch, or was perhaps prompted to say something controversial so his scumbuddies look would look good by being critical of it. Maybe he did it to test the water, planning to WIFOM his way out of it later.
Because I can't really give an answer to your question. On the surface, DO suggested to lynch SL, and SL wasn't lynched. Thus, what was suggested wasn't followed through. Realizing that answer is kind of a cop out, an acceptable answer would require me to know what DO's intentions were. Since I don't, the only thing I can do is guess.spolium wrote:What has this got to do with my question? You were defending DO's actions on the basis of there being an appreciable difference between suggesting something and doing something. I wondered if you could clarify the relevance of this in light of the fact that DO did both, not ask me a vague counter-question which could apply to any controversial vote made by town or scum in any game of mafia.
Since I know DO is town, if he really wanted to lynch SL, then he disbelieved the claim so much that he felt a lynch was justified. If he didn't really want to lynch SL and was just trying to catch scum, then he wasn't intending to follow through with the lynch, and the vote was an attempt to motivate scum into bandwagoning on.
The problem with that answer is its exactly the same answer you'd expect me to give whether I was town or scum, which makes the answer almost as worthless as the question.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Lynx -
This post interests me. Its clear you suspect FHQ first, and I guess me second. Do you think there is no case on any other player as in no one else is likely scum, or are you just focusing in because a deadline is close and you're confident about FHQ? The part I bolded makes me think you don't suspect there is any case on any player other than me or FHQ right now (not weaker cases, but no cases whatsoever). I also wonder how closely you have looked at other players in the game besides FHQ or I - it sounds like you're looking for someone else to present a case rather than look for one yourself ("If there is a case I have yet to hear it", rather than "I don't see a case on anyone else right now"). Maybe I'm reading into this too much though and your just making sure we lynch before deadline.I've narrowed it down because it's obvious that those two are the top suspects of today.If there's another case on anyone else I've yet to hear it.If Spolium, Goat and myself have said questionable things like you've said, then why haven't you pointed out these things? I made case against FHQ and I find merit in it. I want him lynched I've made it clear that I think it's enough against him. Through a lynch we'll gain more information. No lynch we're just going to be in the same situation with one less townie.
Sekinj - the same information will be gained from whatever happens at night, regardless of whether or not we lynch today, yes? Why do you want to give the scum a second chance at a N1 kill, since thats what would be acomplished by no-lynching today, essentially?
I read through your posts in isolation again - I noticed that since you replaced in, the only player you've given any sort of opinion on has been SL. You argued with him at length, despite believing that he really is a town doc. Most of your comments seem like prodding the town around - you've agreed with players cases, but have never made a single case of your own, to the point where I can't see 1 bit of scumhunting in all of our posts. Can you show me, with examples, of how you've been working to find scum?-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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hmmm... at least you're honest. Then again, I've been in a game where a scum player admitted to not scumhunting after being called on it, and tried to play it off as being pro-town because he was gathering information to be able to scumhunt later in the game.
few questions:
-What cases have you been examining, and what is your stance on them?
-What was the point in arguing with SL if you didn't think he was scum, and your argument wasn't meant to find scum through some indirect approach?
-Can you summarizes one of the cases you've been examining that you would like to see followed though to a lynch?
Note to all: activity in this game is starting to depress me, 'specially given the looming deadline. Any chance everyone could postsomethingto let everyone know that you're at least reading the thread? Ideally, I think everyone should vote for someone, or support sekinj's no-lynch idea through voting, in their next post. Its 7:30PM EST (GMT-5) right now. at 9:00PM, I will place my vote, depending on answers I receive/don't receive to outstanding questions by then. I will also reserve the right to amend my vote before deadline is reached if time/discussion allows.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Sorry for the absence... its been a busy week.
Here's what I think.
Firstly, neither Spolium or SL should be the lynch choice today - 1 of them was successfully protected N1, and with more than 1 scum remaining it seems like smart play to hunt for other scum, even IF one of spolium or SL are scum. I think its very likely SL was protected.
Who I do think we need to look at under a microscope is Don. First reason, why wouldn't a watcher watch a claimed doc N1, assuming that the claimed doc would be the likely nk target? OK, so don gives us the explanation that he confused watcher with tracker, but should I count ignorance as an acceptable explanation?
Second reason is a bit of wifom, but worth mentioning: Why would scum target jebus? If I were scum, I would assume that even a best case scenario, the kill would fail due to protection from the other doc. Worst case scenario, a scum would be caught making the kill by the watcher. To me, this seems like a textbook example where scum should've tried to kill someone who had no chance of being protected or watched, unless the scum knows that don is not a watcher.
Lets look at some numbers. I'm assuming, of course, that don would always pick one of the 2 claimed docs to watch. If he flipped a coin to pick, that means there was a 50% chance scum would be found. Add in the other doc to the calculation. Say SL picked either don or jebus to protect randomly and here is the complete breakdown:
25% - failed kill, no watch.
25% - successful kill, watched.
25% - failed kill, watched.
25% - Successful kill, no watch.
3 of those scenarios hurt the scum - only a 25% chance of scum getting a positive result based on choosing to kill 1 of the docs. Is the risk worth the reward? I don't think so. Should we just assume scum got lucky on a calculated risk, or was there no risk because don is scum and was told to say he watched SL?
And the rest:
Goat
fhq-reincarnate
Lynx
RC
sekinj
of those 5, I'm most concerned about sekinj, and I need to get a read on Goat and the new and improved FHQ. I'll post some thoughts about sekinj later tonight or this weekend.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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So, couple things.
Firstly, what I don't like about sekinj. There has been the arguing with SL which thankfully seems to have passed for now, but now there is some bickering with don. What I don't see is whether sekinj thinks don is scummy, or if she just likes to argue and stir stuff up. I just don't see any scum hunting from sekinj at all since she was in the game. However, her very recent posts seem better in that regard but still seem more defensive to me than actually trying to scum hunt. Right now, I'm comfortable voting sekinj, and I'm prepared to lay out a more extensive post justifying all my reasons if need be.
vote: sekinj
On to Don's plan. Firstly, why talk about it like its some brilliant secret scheme to assure victory - if both don and spring are what they say they are, it should be completely obvious thats what should happen from here on out, barring gambits from one or the other to try to catch scum targetting someone else because scum are expecting spring to be watched and don to be protected.
What I don't like is what happens when its lylo and SL dies the night before and don claims to know who made the kill. On one hand, its good because we get into a 50/50 position on the lynch. On the other hand, I hope don can realize that the flaw in his plan is that we can't assume he is confirmed town right now. There are many other scenarios that could happen, but no point in speculating on them all right now.
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@spring: did you ever give a reason for why you protected spolium n1? I can't remember...
apologies for the absence... its a busy time right now - work, moving, planning for a wedding in june, taxes, procrastinating . I'll try to stay more active from here on out.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Oh hey! Nice to see you again. Of course, this means you're Obvscum. Lynch all Liars you know. You're obviously trying to hide who you really are because you're scumIce9 wrote: For clarification, OhGodMyLife is not in this game, as this account is an OhGodMyLife alt.
I thought spring said he protected you last night, and spolium N1?DJ wrote: for some odd reason, spring has protected spolium both nights 1 and 2. hopefully tonight she will be protecting me and i watching her.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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OK, I went back and re-read. You're right, for some reason I thought spring said he protected you. It was around the time I replaced in though so I must have got some channels crossed. This changes my perspective a bit. For one, I'm a lot more suspicious of spring now. However, there is still the missing N1 kill, presumedly due to Jebus' protect on spring. And the fact that spring CCed a mafia fakeclaim... Anyone starting to think 2 scumteams of 2 yet?don_johnson wrote:
^^ incorrect. i thought spring would protect jebus, and jebus me, while i watched spring. spring stated in thread that she chose to protect spolium again instead. we didn't have a necessarily concrete plan, but i was following along with a suggestion by RC thinking that we all would. i was wrong.Rhinox wrote:
I thought spring said he protected you last night, and spolium N1?DJ wrote: for some odd reason, spring has protected spolium both nights 1 and 2. hopefully tonight she will be protecting me and i watching her.
I'm actually liking my vote where it is though.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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"Rhinox - the biggest thing is the weird play by DO" - Sekinj, can you clarify what you meant by this?
Which brings me to my earlier point - how did scum know it was going to be safe to hit jebus? There was only a 25% chance of a successful, unwatched hit by picking any of the 3 claimed power roles - was it just luck? Did scum assume spring had the best chance of acting on his own? Or did scum have inside information? Inside information would have to point to spring being scum, but recent conversation convinces me that I'd have to believe quite the conspiracy to justify calling spring scum right now. Problem is, I'm also having a hard time believing it was just luck.ice wrote:If there were a hole in the circle being exploited by scum, it would have become clear based on what happened which of the claims were fake. As it is, leaving the power roles to their own discretion left Jebus unprotected and unwatched, and we come to today still knowing nothing for certain about the alignments of either remaining claimed player and with one dead doctor.
I've prepared a summary of my reasons for my vote on sekinj, and I'll post them after sekinj answers my question at the top of this post.ice wrote:Can somebody give me a short and sweet version of the case against sekinj? I'd like to know why she's the most viable lynch at this point, and the deadline looms.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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The reason I asked is because when I replaced in, you heavily defended me against accusations based on DO's actions, so I find it odd that you consider it noteworthy now.sekinj wrote:DO wanting to lynch spring. That was the only thing from your character that stood out to me. I think it was just a bored alt, but it is worth remembering.
anyways...
Doc-Doc-Watcher-Cop... Which doesn't fit with the rest? Does it seem logical that the town can actually have all 4 of those roles? I think it seems likely now that at least 1 of the 3 remaining are lying.
Sekinj, if you suspect there to be a godfather, why are you willing to ride lynx off as town? Couldn't he be the GF?-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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What makes me or goat good investigation choices?Spolium wrote: I think tonight Spring should target Sekinj, while Sekinj targets someone else - Goat or Rhinox would be good choices - and Don should target Spring. No sense in making the same mistake two nights in a row.
The paranoid side of me is thinking, with the threat of a godfather and the fact that goat has been under heavy suspicion from some players, that you know something about goat, and I think you threw me in there to try to hide it...
The more rational side of me says that it is anti town to try to direct a cop investigation under most circumstances regardless.-
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EBWOP: scratch the last part. I missed sekinj's last post on the last page where she asked who to investigate.
Rhinox wrote:
What makes me or goat good investigation choices?Spolium wrote: I think tonight Spring should target Sekinj, while Sekinj targets someone else - Goat or Rhinox would be good choices - and Don should target Spring. No sense in making the same mistake two nights in a row.
The paranoid side of me is thinking, with the threat of a godfather and the fact that goat has been under heavy suspicion from some players, that you know something about goat, and I think you threw me in there to try to hide it...
The more rational side of me says that it is anti town to try to direct a cop investigation under most circumstances regardless.-
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Any of the unclaimed players at this point would make good targets - there isn't really anyone I would call "definately town" right now.Spolium wrote:@don - Whoa there. What exactly makes you think I'm suggesting a no-lynch?
@Rhinox - I mentioned Goat because his play has changed significantly between D1 and D2/3, so he's a grey area. It would help a lot to clear him up. I think you would be a good investigation target because, however townish you seem right now, DO's push for the Spring lynch could still be significant. Those are only my two initial thoughts though; if you can think of better targets for investigation, by all means present them.
Beyond that, if scum know exactly who is going to be investigated, they will be able to take measures to minimize the damage. For example, suppose a town player is set to be investigated. Wouldn't supprise me if that player was the nk.
Regarding the other night actions, there is no chain of best choices that can save all 3 If they're all town. If we're working off the assumption that they're all town, best scenario would be spring protects don watches spring, and sacrifice sekinj to the nk. Thats the only way to guarentee 2 survive to endgame.
If we're assuming any 1 of them are scum, then my preferred choice of action would be to leave unwatched/unprotected the player who is most likely scum out of the 3. 3 scenarios:
1) If we feel don is more likely scum:donwatchesspringprotectssekinjinvestegates whoever. If don's scum, he won't die.
2) If spring is most likely scum:springprotectsdonwatchessekinjinvestigates whoever.
3) If sekinj is most likely scum, then don and spring watch/protect each other and sekinj investigates whoever.
But we're still a ways from that point though... Theres discussion to be had now, and one of those 3 may end up being lynched yet.-
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You assume too much, sekinj.
Option 1 means if don and spring are both honest, don will be killed tonight with no consequences, leaving spring to be killed tomorrow. The plus side is that gives you 2 free investigations IF you're telling the truth. Obviously, this option is best if we think don is more likely scum of the 3. Don wouldn't be able to be nked if he's scum, meaning spring couldn't be killed without being watched (or fake watched in worst case scenario), and you couldn't be nked.
Option 2 means yes, spring dies first, followed by don, if they're both honest. Again, you get 2 investigations. This is best if we think spring is lying. Spring then couldn't be nked, and if don were nked, it would prove spring was scum. You *could* be killed, but we would get a watch result from don.
Option 3 means you die if you're being honest, but if you don't die, it would probably prove you are scum. Of course this option is used in the situation where we think you are most likely lying, and don and spring would be perpetually safe until endgame unless scum sac's one of their own to kill spring.
Your assumption that spring is the auto target tonight is false. A doc is not as powerful as you seem to think it is, especially when compared to the other potential PRs of cop and watcher.
If all 3 of you are being honest, then at least 2, or maybe even 3 of this list are scum: Goat, Ice, Lynx, RC, Rhinox, and Spolium. Of this list, Lynx gets a pass for now due to the innocent result. I know I'm not scum. I want to look mostly at Goat and Spolium. Ice and RC both seem very town to me, but I'm a conspiracy nut - I worry I'm being played by RC.
@Ice: There has got to be more than just DJ-scum remaining, if DJ is scum. However, if DJ is being honest about his claim and we lynch him, that leaves spring unwatched tonight.
Why not leave DJ alive to watch spring just in case he's being honest? I would then condone following through with the rest of option 1.-
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Actually, now that I think about it, if you add in at the end of option 1 that sekinj investigates don, then thats a pretty tight loop - sekinj can't be killed, and would learn weather or not don is scum. That way if spring dies, we would know whether or not he was giving us honest watch results.
If all 3 are telling the truth, we're golden. If just 1 is lying, they either have to play along, or sacrifice 1 of their own to kill 1 of the the 2 honest PRs. If 2 are lying, however, the town is in a position to get played big time.-
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Or sek is naive, and lynx is scum taking agvantage of that to get sekinj lynched.ice wrote:I am virtually certain that Lynx is town - either sek is truthfully a cop, in which case there's an innocent investigation on him, or sek is lying, in which case Lynx is a real cop counterclaiming.
Or lynx is GF, and taking advantage
And then lynx thinks he can argue his way out of his own lynch after a sekinj mislynch, due to the confusion of how many claims there have been.
(not saying I think those are the most likely scenarios, just don't want to ignore the possibility)
If there really are 2 docs, possibly with sanity issues, there could very well be 2 cops with sanity issues, and the mod is screwing with us.
Well, it would take a guilty result, or a scum flip from an innocent result to prove either sek or lynx were naive. Just sayin, even if I flip town at some point, still doesn't prove lynx isn't naive.ice wrote:There are way too many claims. Lynx's results don't rule out the possibility that he's naive. I mention this because Rhinox is one of my top two suspects outside of the claimed group, based almost entirely on likelihood of being Budja's scumbuddy.
This plan sucks if you think lynx could be naive - we'll be no better off tomorrow if lynx has an innocent on sekinj.ice wrote:So Spring should certainly be protecting Lynx. Yes it removes the random chance WIFOM from the scum kill, but it also means that the most confirmed town power role lives regardless, unless scum Spring wants to sacrifice herself to kill him.
don's watch should be on Spring. Lynx's investigation is up to him, but it should probably be hitting sek, since with Spring's protect he's guaranteed to live to tomorrow to possibly confirm her. sek's investigation should still be someone in the pool of unclaimed players.
And I think that covers all of the bases.
This is all becoming too convoluted... my head hurts-
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Just thought of something...
Sekinj and Lynx, why don't you 2 do the same type of role PM flavor comparison that Jebus and spring did? It could give us an indication if one of you two are lying.
(If it was allowed before, it should be allowed now, right?)
I think sekinj should give a word which rhymes with the first couplet, in which lynx can verify and then reciprocate a word which rhymes with the second couplet for sekinj to verify.
(Assuming the structure is still AABB, as my role PM is also AABB)-
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Goat, you do realize you contradict yourself a couple times in that last post right?
The major contradiction being:
The minor contradiction being that you feel strongly that at least one of the claimed PR's is scum, but you'd rather lynch a player you don't have anything substantial on.goat wrote:I don't have anything substantial on Spolium.
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Regardless of role claims, I still think Spolium is our best lynch, strictly on behavior.
Me, you, ice, and RC, I think.Goat wrote:I'm willing to claim if necessary. I don't see any reason not to go through with a mass claim at this point. Who remains unclaimed? Me, Rhinox...anyone else? Ice?
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Don, have you ever played in a game with a watcher or tracker before?-
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don_johnson wrote:
i believe i was in one game with a "jack of all trades" who had a one shot tracker ability. other than that, no. i have been in mostly newbs and minis with basic roles.Rhinox wrote:
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Don, have you ever played in a game with a watcher or tracker before?
I checked your posts... all 40 pages of them, to check all the games you've been in. Open 111 had a watcher role possible, but it was mod abandoned after 30-some pages. Mini 730 had your joat tracker, as well as a full tracker. And Mini 722 had a watcher, but you were lynched D1.
See, I had to check because I still have a hard time believing that you didn't understand your role ability. Even if I believed that you didn't learn what a watcher was in O111 or M722, you certainly should have learned what a tracker was in M730. Upon receiving a role of watcher in this game, I'm not sure I can believe you would interpret your role as a tracker without at least a PM to the mod asking, "hey, is a watcher the same as a tracker?"
Furthermore, I'm not a mod, but I'm pretty sure its standard practice for all mods in a normal games to give a role PM to give more than just a role name, I.E. instructions for what you're supposed to do, and what results you should expect. And it really should have been a slam dunk watch on SL N1.
I also read back to when you claimed... you never said why you targeted RC. So... why did you choose totrackRC (since you thought you were tracking)?-
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"Speculate? No, RC, you said: " If we can suspect one of the Cops is insane, we then know sekinj would be that insane Cop, giving us another mafia in Rhinox". How did you know that Sekinj would be the insane cop, unless you could verify that Lynx's information was accurate? "
This is a good point here... I overlooked it initially. If Sekinj is the insane cop, how does that make me mafia? Presumably, that would mean lynx would be a sane cop, and lynx is the one with an innocent on me *headscratch*-
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ok.... I'm still not following though... That could mean that lynx is lying to protect his partner, or it could mean that lynx claimed innocent on an innocent so he would hope I would support his claim.sekinj wrote:
given his claim, I've also ruled out that he is a godfather. If he was a godfather he'd be sitting pretty with an inno result, rather than putting him self out there with a counter. So either I am sane, or he is scum (from my pov)Spolium wrote:
If sekinj is an insane cop then Lynx could not be the sane cop; he would be scum.Rhinox wrote:This is a good point here... I overlooked it initially. If Sekinj is the insane cop, how does that make me mafia? Presumably, that would mean lynx would be a sane cop, and lynx is the one with an innocent on me *headscratch*
So, why then would RC make a statement that If sekinj is insane, rhinox is scum? Why not, if sekinj is insane, lynx is scum and possibly Rhinox?
Furthermore, either of them could be naive, and that wouldn't result in the other being scum. IMO, I think naive is more common than insane.
I second this request.Spolium wrote:Can ALL the claimed power roles please confirm whether they received a brief description of their role mechanic in their role PM?-
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Don, please paraphrase your role PM. You say you have all the same things that sekinj has, so please give me a paraphrase of your role name, what you need to do each night, what the results could be, and your win condition.
FWIW, this knew exchange confirms to me at least that either Don and Sekinj are both town, in which Don really did botch his ability, or Don is scum and Sekinj is town and Don is backpedaling big time now to try to fix his story. Either way, I feel much better about Sekinj. I can't really see Sekinj-scum and Don-town being possible right now, and the only way they can both be scum is if they're different factions.-
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Because you and sekinj contradicted, and then you changed your story to allign with her. Furthermore, between sekinj, spring, and lynx, sekinj was most suspected to be scum. I would not have expected scum sekinj to claim what was in her role PM first, assuming that she had no way of knowing you would change your story (i.e. she would have to had assumed you were correct the first time), as well as without knowning whether spring or lynx would be able to corroborate your story or hers. Thus, I now strongly believe sekinj is town.Don wrote:rhinox: if the information both sekinj and i are saying exists, is something that you believe should exist in a pm from the mod, how does our confirming now that it does, make either of us town?
Oh, and pretty sure paraphrasing is always allowable, so long as you're not quoting. Thats pretty much site standard. Paraphrasing should be pretty easy, since the role was written in poetry, and you can paraphrase in normal writing. So quit stallin'-
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Reading this, I find it unbelievable that you could not understand your role ability for N1. It seems pretty clear to me. Which part made you believe your role was more like a tracker?don wrote:okay:
there is a poem about me sitting outside someones house.
it says i am town watcher and that i may choose a player each night and will be told who targets my choice.
it also includes my win condition.
I don't think I can get behind a spolium lynch. Recently, his posts seem very town to me, and he shares my suspicions of Don, which I view as genuine. Upon replacing in, Spolium seemed scummy based on my initial gut read, due to his interactions with Budja. But those interactions are WIFOM and null, as town can inadvertantly defend scum against what the town player feels is a bad case, and whether or not scum will defend their partner is WIFOM.lynx wrote:Sekinj and Rhinox you're the only ones not voting. How do you stand on a Spoilum deadline lynch?
After going back to look at my early posts after replacing in, I remember saying this, and it still holds true:
Of these 4, I believe there is at least 1 scum - I highly doubt all scum partners bussed the mafia RB. Goat cleared up that he was essentially on the wagon. Plonky is Sekinj, who I believe to be town. FHQ is Ice, and then of course we have Don. I feel very strongly that at least one of Ice or Don (and possibly goat, but mostly ice or don) is scum. Thus, it is one of those 2 I would like to see lynched today.Rhinox wrote:I'm also suspicious of everyone who wasn't voting for Budja, since budja was a scum PR - don, fhq, plonky, and Goat.
I agree that RC's latest posts have seemed sketchy, but I think the best course of action is to look for scum among those who didn't vote for budja. I wouldn't be able to believe that all other scum voted to bus the mafia RB on D1.
In the case of a deadline, I would only be willing to vote spolium if my vote was needed to prevent a no-lynch, as I feel any lynch is better than a no-lynch. Absent of the deadline, I'm not sure spolium is even in my top 3 choices.
I feel its pretty straightforward logic. Maybe I can explain it a better way through an order of events type of analysis.don wrote:i understand rhinox's reasoning here, but i am still highly suspicious of the claim. rhinox mentioned before(in thread) of what he thought a role pm should contain. they could be a scumpair that tried to set me up, but that would be a bit convoluted so no
Lets make an assumption that sekinj is scum, and don and lynx are town, and analyze events to check this assumption.
1: I say what I expect a role PM should contain.
2: You claim that your role PM speaks nothing of results.
3: Sekinj contradicts your claim by saying that her role PM gives explicit instructions and what to expect as a result - important thing to note that if sekinj is scum here, she would have to assume you were correct when you said your role PM didn't indicate what to expect as a result of your choice. Thus, she would expect that lynx would be able to corroborate your version and not yours. Thus, it would be scum suicide for sekinj to lie to contradict you.
4: your story changed to match sekinj.
5: spring and lynx corroborated sekinj's version.
If you objectively look at these events, the only way sekinj could possibly be scum is either A) she got really lucky and guessed you were mistaken about what was in your role PM, or B) she somehow knows exactly what is in a cop role PM. The idea that sekinj and I being a scum pair trying to team up to get you lynched is pretty proposterous, considering that still doesn't explain at all how scum sekinj knew what was actually in the Power role PM.
This is a good point, but not enough to sway my belief about skeinj. We know budja was a RB, but I don't know if the structure of budja's role PM would help sekinj fabricate the structure of a town investigative role PM. Not only that, we don't know if the structure of the Budja's role PM is something that was shared between the scum. Maybe there are other scum power roles we don't know about, but unless there are scum cops/watchers/trackers or other investigative roles, I doubt sekinj would have been able to correctly match the structure of lynx's role PM.goat wrote:I consider it somewhat of a town tell, by simple nature of scum not wanting to be the first to claim anything. However, I don't think it's terribly hard for scum to claim the way their role PM was arranged, considering scum have roles as well as town.
So, in case you guys haven't figured out, I think don or ice should be lynched today. I strongly believe Don is lying about his role and has been trying to spin his way out of it since I started questioning him more directly about it today. Don is my first choice for lynch today, Ice is my second choice. I strongly believe one of these two are scum.
vote: don, and I will reevaluate my vote as we near deadline.-
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Refresh my memory - which votes were those?Don wrote:i understand your line of reasoning, but we have no way of knowing what other scum roles exist. i am much more suspicious of the late day 1 votes that jumped the wagon with little to no reasoning.
1) huh? I don't follow. Sounds like you're saying that scum could attempt to fake claim, which of course is obvious.Don wrote:(1)you are ignoring the fact that scum could most likely present their role pm to look town.(2)you are ignoring the fact that lynx could be sekinj's scum partner.(3)you seem to be focusing on one thing: getting rid of the only power role who can protect the claimed town doc.
2) I find this so extremely unlikely that yes, I am ignore the possibility. It does not seem to be a realistic possibility.
3) If you flip watcher, it will be up to the rest of the town to determine what my intentions were and act accordingly. IMO, I have very low confidence that you actually are a watcher, and you will either have no results in order to maintain the status quo, or results we can't immediately trust due to your unknown allignment. Regardless, I am not motivated by the fear of being wrong. I think you're scum, and I'll handle whatever consequences of being wrong if/when they arise.-
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I'm here... I'm just not sure about either RC or spolium. I feel RC has a few unanswered questions and I would hate to see a rush lynch form on him without giving him a chance to answer. Spolium at least fits my analysis better regarding who didn't vote for budja - in that even though Spolium DID vote for budja, his vote seemed more like potential bussing. RC, IIRC, was voting budja pretty much all D1, and I just don't see that a likely action considering budja was a scum power role. Also, Spolium is (IMO) more connected to don and spring based on interactions today, so it would give me a clearer picture about those players tomorrow. If my choice was forced between Spolium and RC, at this late hour, I would have to pick Spolium, based on the belief that his lynch, even if its a mislynch, has the potential to provide the most useful information to the town.
However, I still want to be on record that I'm fairly confident that one of Don or ice are scum, based on my belief that I find it improbable that all the other scum partners to budja (be it 1 or 2 or whatever) were voting to bus him. I adamantly believe Don is lying and he is my first choice. Ice is my second choice by process of elimination, and I wish there was more time to examine him closer and get some more input from him.
So, I will leave my vote for now in hopes that there will be some support for my case on don or ice, although I doubt it. I will willingly vote for a spolium lynch at deadline if need be, and I will reluctantly vote for RC or goat only if my vote is the only way a lynch can be made before deadline. I will not under any circumstances vote for sekinj, spring or lynx at deadline - I would rather no lynch.-
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I was watching the clockThat was too close for comfort, Rhinox.
Pretty sure we would be ok so long as we beat Tony to locking the thread anyways.
He better...Did we ever get any confirmation from don on whether or not he's watching spring tonight?
And with that, see you on the proverbial flip side.-
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This game is meant to be screwing with us, I think.
Top 3 suspects in no particular order: Don, ice, and spolium.
I wish I could say "yay I'm confirmed now", but i realize that sanities might not be revealed, and there still could be the threat of a godfather.
Although I still think don is lying scum, my suspicion has actually dropped a small bit, due to the fact that with all the power roles, I think we're meant to get paranoid/distracted and lynch them off, rather than searching for scum. I am interested to hear what don claims his results are.
I really wish we had RC's results. Maybe we should comb through his posts looking for crumbs to see who he targetted and if he got any interesting results?
I have a feeling this is going to be a long, rough day...-
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I agree that its looking bad for spolium at the moment. I also want to point out that don and ice can be scum working together here... however, that could just be my paranoia because its hard to argue with the crumb goat found.
Iwasa vanilla townie, or so I thought. However, when I checked the thread I had a PM from the mod that stated I was activated in my secret role as adeputydue to lynx's death. So, good news is I have lynx's results: Lynx investigated Goat last night, and an innocent result was returned. Coupled with goat's last post, I am believing that goat is in fact innocent, although GF isn't technically out of the question.
Thats also why I posted that I was more suspicious of sekinj - I was skeptical of the presence of 2 cops and a deputy. Although, 2 cops, a deputy, 2 docs, 2 watchers and a tracker doesn't make any sense either in a mini, with only 1 townie killed, another 2 claimed, and a mafia RB killed.
Spolium does bring up a good point though...
However, we still have A) The N1 no kill, and B) why would scum-spring CC a scum doc fakeclaim? Only thing is if it was all just a big gambit - 1 scum claims doc, the other CC's, when 1 of them gets lynched, the other looks confirmed. Then send in a no-kill, which makes us think the real doc (jebus) preveneted the kill attempt, which essentially "confirms" spring. Then, jebus' death further confirms jebus' role/results, and we start PR speculating, which the other scum play on to claim other power roles.Is it normal for someone to be told they're a doc but actually be a jailkeeper?
So... What do we know...
100% confirmed roles:
Doctor (Jebus)
Cop (lynx)
Tracker (RC)
Townie (fhqwhgads)
Mafia RB (Budja)
100% confirmed to me:
Deputy (cop) (Rhinox)
Claimed Roles:
Townie x2 (Spolium, Goat)
Watcher x2 (Don, ice)
Cop (sekinj)
Doc (SL)
Claimed Results:
Lynx/Rhinox Cop:
N1-Jebus innocent
N2-Rhinox innocent
N3-Goat innocent
Sekinj Cop:
N1-No action submitted
N2-Lynx innocent
N3-Blocked
Spring Doc:
N1-Protected Spolium
N2-Protected Spolium
N3-Protected Sekinj
Jebus Doc:
N1-Protected Spring
N2-Killed, (targeted goat)
Don Watch:
N1-RC,saw nothing
N2-Spring,saw himself
N3-Spring, saw ice target spring
ice watch:
N1-no action submitted
N2-watched goat, saw jebus target goat
N3-Spring, saw don target spring
RC track:
crumb found that RC probably tracked Don
in the same post as the other crumb:
So I guess RC must have tracked me/DO at some point and got no result. That might explain why I was feeling that RC was buddying up to me hard.Unlike some others, I didn't find that whole DO "let's lynch a Doctor claim" thing to be scummy. Like I said at the time, seemed more newbish than scummy to me. Rhinox may be a little overly concerned with defense and not enough with offense, but that really isn't enough to put him over the edge. I've played with Rhinox before, and (don't want to talk about it too much because it's an ongoing game) I think I have a better feel for reading Rhinox. Like, you can't really see it here, but I cantrackthe way he was pressuring people yesterday to explaining why DO was scummy other than because of that one comment I mentioned. You can argue it might seem a little too defensive, but to me that shows he's interested in getting other player's opinions.
Also found this. Either RC is really good, or this gave ice the idea to fake claim watcher:
OK, so I still have to read RC some more, but this is all the known/claimed information. Logic puzzle time... which pieces don't fit?RC wrote:ice 978 wrote: There are also a lot of paired roles going on here - dead doc and claimed doc, two claimed cops. Could be a pattern, could just be coincidental fake claim(s).
Hinting at an unclaimed Watcher, Ice?
I noticed a discrepincy in Don's reported results - when he reported that he watched RC, he said he saw nothing. However, after N2, he said he saw himself target spring:
Don wrote:role claim: town watcher
night 1 target: Red Coyote
results: confusing
i misinterpreted my ability. i thought its properties were more akin to the role "tracker" and have been back and forth with the mod as to my results.My first return PM stated that RC was home alone all night.when asked to clarify i got the response that as watcher i only see who targets my target and am given no information as to alignment. however, based on my continuing conversation i am leaning towards RC being town despite his entirely crap argument. has anyone here been watcher before? mods answers were puzzling to me and i have been wrestling with the results.
So... slip?Don wrote:target: spring lullaby.noone targeted springlullaby but me.
I've rambled long enough for now I think...-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Sekinj, multiple choice quiz for you:
Since I'm a cop now, I had lynx results reported to me. Last night I got results about goat that said either:
A) Not Guilty
B) Innocent
C) Town Alligned
D) Not Scum Alligned
E) None of the above
Which choice above matches the result you got about lynx N2 from your investigation?-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Interesting...sekinj wrote:Rhin - B) Innocent
spring - How many scum do we have remaining? We could have 2 scum left. Spoilum sent in the kill N1 and was blocked, and the second night scum2 sent in the kill and was successful.
My results actually said A) Not Guilty.
Therefore, I believe sekinj is lying and we have found scum.
vote: sekinj-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Technically, I don't have a deputy role PM. The Role PM I received when I replaced in was a standard townie PM, with no indication I was a deputy.Spolium wrote:One thing which stands out to me now is the apparent abundance of cop roles.
@Rhinox - Please paraphrase your deputy role PM.
When I went to check the thread at the start of the day, I saw I had a message from the mod. It said I was activated as a deputy, and I was given the investigation results of Lynx, as well as a little poem.-
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See above^^ my previous post.goat wrote:Rhinox: I'll echo the call for details on your deputy roll PM. I'm interested specifically in how your PM is worded in regards to how you learn results. Meaning, does your PM imply the existence of multiple cops/deny the possibility of multiple cops, etc?
Until this morning, I was a normal townie, with no indication of being a deputy. This morning, I recieved a PM saying I was activated as a deputy. I was given a list of Lynx's 3 investigations results: N1 Jebus, N2 myself, and N3 Goat all Not guilty. As part of the flavor poem (paraphrased), I was told that I could ensure Lynx's death wasn't for nothing. It also says I assume my role because lynx has died, although it does not specify that I could only replace lynx or if I could replace whichever cop was killed first, if there is more than 1 cop. It gives no indication of how many cops exist.-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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I think this semantics argument is silly, however...
i would have said "I got no result, so I assume I was blocked."
When I read "I was blocked", thats what I assumed.
You mean like thesekinj wrote:Rhin - I doubt the mod is looking very favorably on our attempts to compare PMs at this point. he may be intentionally adding differences.differencessimilarities we were using to confirm jebus and spring?-
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Rhinox Mafia Scum
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Good thing we're not comparing PM's then. We're comparing results.sekinj wrote:
exactly. When we tried to do that again, he told us to desist.Rhinox wrote:
You mean like thesekinj wrote:Rhin - I doubt the mod is looking very favorably on our attempts to compare PMs at this point. he may be intentionally adding differences.differencessimilarities we were using to confirm jebus and spring?-
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@goat/Spolium: When I read sekinj saying "I was blocked", I assumed she meant "I got no result", because I believe it is the convention to be told you got no result rather than being told you were specifically roleblocked. However, were I to receive no result, I would assume I was blocked. Thus, I don't fault sekinj for saying she was blocked, although the way I would have worded it would have been something akin to "I got no result, so I assume I was blocked", rather than the certainty and vagueness the phrase "I was blocked" implies.
However, I feel the entire conversation is irrelevant, because I believe sekinj is lying. I think don makes good points in 1202, and I think spring makes even better points in 1207, specifically the one where sekinj suggested a massclaim as cop on D2 without any result.
Took the liberty of removing the doubleness-
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