Mini 737 - Hack Poetry Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #620 (isolation #0) » Thu Mar 19, 2009 4:41 am

Post by Rhinox »

Hey all, Rhinox here, replacing in/
Let me do a quick reread before i begin/
I'm replacing DO - kinda feel its a shame/
But I'll do my best to help town win the game/

PS: Not sure I get all the poetry and talking in rhyme/
But I'll give it my best (so long as I have the time).

;)
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Post Post #627 (isolation #1) » Fri Mar 20, 2009 3:32 am

Post by Rhinox »

Just chiming in to say I'm still reading - taking a little longer than I thought.

Just wanted to nip this in the bud real quick
I am most suspicious of DO, who declared that we should lynch a freshly-claimed doc "just to see", followed by a bit of floundering then total abandonment, followed by a no-show from his replacement. I'm totally willing to put my vote down on his slot on that basis, though I'm willing to see what Rhinox has to say first.
DO is chock full of bad ideas, and is very good at looking like scum when he's town. I've played with him twice, which happen to be his only 2 completed games on the site (I think). The first game we lynched him for being obvscum. He was townie, I was townie. The second game he was up to his same antics, I vouched for him, explaining how his play in the game can't be a tell on his allignment either way due to his playstyle. Nearly everyone else wanted to lynch him. I said there was no way I was supporting his lynch. I talked the town out of lynching DO, and he got a guilty investigation that night as cop. I was vanilla town.

So... DO's suggestion to lynch a claimed doc may or may not be a bad idea - I haven't gotten that far yet - but its definitely not something that would indicate to me that I thought he was scum.

The abandonment is also a null tell. The first game I played with DO, when the pressure got a little too strong, he turned tail and ran. The more pressure, the more he floundered, until he insulted everyone and asked to be replaced. Again, he was town.

The no show from his first replacement is so not a scum tell that without even reading the thread, I would vote Spolium just for saying it was. Ok, so I'm not going to do that, but I will be reading Spolium pretty closely.

Here are the 2 games I'm talking about when I refer to DO. I hope you'll at least read DO's posts in isolation in those 2 games - I think you'll see what I mean.

Mini 716
Mini 725

All that being said, is there anything else about DO you guys find scummy other than "He suggested to lynch a claimed doc?" That sounds like a pretty weak reason to call for someone's lynch, considering there are 2 doc claims (very unlikely in a mini, imo) as well as 1 other claim as well, if I'm understanding the little bit I read so far correctly. Why do I get the feeling that there is some role fishing going on - forcing as many people as possible into claiming?
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Post Post #631 (isolation #2) » Fri Mar 20, 2009 5:24 am

Post by Rhinox »

It has been my observation that scum slots in trouble tend to cycle through more replacements than townie slots, so I'd have to disagree with you.
From what I've seen, I would say town or scum slots can equally cycle through replacements. However, regardless of allignment, the slot being replaced is usually under suspicion.

Anyways... I'm a bit into my read. I'm reading quickly so I know I'm not getting 100% of everything just yet, but one thing I did notice was Spolium jumping in to answer for Budja very early in the game, and seemed a lot like defending him to me. Normally, although it is WIFOM, I would divine that scum wouldn't openly defend their scum partner so obviously and it is more likely that a townie was doing the defending coincidentally. However, the exception would be if the player being defended happens to be a scum power role. Not sure if I'd be comfortable using this to justify a vote on spolium, but it does make me wonder.

Looking back at the lynch wagon, Spolium didn't jump on until after Budja's self vote. Seems like a safe time to jump on the wagon. I'm equally suspicious of millar13's vote on budja - To me, it seemed like he was just trying to hurry the lynch along without discussion.

I'm also suspicious of everyone who wasn't voting for Budja, since budja was a scum PR - don, fhq, plonky, and Goat. Goat stuck out to me because he was advocating wanting to vote, and didn't see the merit in discussion until deadline. It seemed the reason he didn't vote was because he didn't want to do anything to spotlight himself the next day (like hammering when the town wanted to continue discussion.)

----------------------------------------------

OK, read a little farther. Skipped ahead to the part where Jebus claimed Doc.

Only reason I can see Jebus-scum claiming doc there is because once don claimed watcher, and assuming SL is really a doc, there is no way for the mafia to kill either of them without sacrificing one of their own (SL protects Don, don watches SL). Only thing that confuses me is that Jebus wanting to lynch me/DO doesn't fit with what I would expect Jebus-scum trying to acomplish by claiming doc. Perhaps its just a way to spend another day and save the 2-doc drama for tomorrow? Maybe he thinks the mafia can use the doc doc watcher string to their advantage tonight, knowing one of their own is in there?

Lets suppose we ignore the 2 docs for the time being, knowing there has to be at least 1 more scum in the game - probably 2 if the 2 docs are real. Who else could be scum?

To be quite honest, I'm really quite confused in this whole mess, between the rhyming at the beginning, and the dueling doc claims. I need more time to think this through and read some more.
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Post Post #633 (isolation #3) » Fri Mar 20, 2009 6:53 am

Post by Rhinox »

How did you miss this? Didn't you consider checking my posts in isolation to confirm my votes before the one you pointed out?
Oh, sorry. Yeah I missed that. I looked at the mod post for the final lynch wagon. Thanks for clearing that up.
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Post Post #646 (isolation #4) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 10:56 am

Post by Rhinox »

Sorry I haven't been more active as of late. Been busy, and replacing in is tough work.
goat, RC wrote:sekinj, Rhinox, and fhq would be my top 3 choices for a lynch at this point. I'll review each and decide this weekend sometime.
I guess if this is what people are thinking, it would be prudent for me to first examine sekinj and fhq and see if either of them seem scummy to me.
goat wrote:Calling me out for not being on Budja when he was hammered is pretty weak. For all intensive purposes my vote was on him. I didn't see the merit in additional discussion; however, I wasn't going to hammer him if the rest of the game wanted to discuss. I distinctly remember saying that I was going to hold off for X period of time and allow for discussion, and then I would hammer at that point, to avoid any possible no lynchings due to waiting around. If I didn't want to spotlight myself, I wouldn't have said that I think we should just lynch Budja and end the day in the first place. That was contrary to popular opinion and drew me some negative attention as it was.

Rhinox, it looks like you are just going back and looking at the vote count at the end of the day and basing your suspicion off of that. You're missing a lot of the context. The end of the day votecount is pretty meaningless, considering Budja claimed scum prior to that point. What's more important is the vote count prior to his claim.
This seems a bit overdefensive, considering all I did was note something that seemed slightly odd to me in my first skim of a reread.

Nevertheless, what I felt like was you weren't ready to vote Budja until after he basically claimed scum, and then you were all for it, but you wanted the town's blessing before placing your vote.

It could be I've missed some key points - in all likeliness I probably have - but until I have a coherent idea of everything thats happened in this game, I can either sit here and say nothing, or put out little blurps of things that stick out to me. That was one of the things. Doesn't mean I automatically view it as scummy, or that I want you lynched for it, but it seemed like something important to discuss IMO.

-----------------------------------

anyways, hopefully I'll be able to post some thoughts on sekinj, fhq or both by tomorrow sometime.
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Post Post #647 (isolation #5) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 10:58 am

Post by Rhinox »

By the way, Spolium and anyone else, has your opinion of DO's play in this game changed any as a result of reading his comments in the 2 games I posted?
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Post Post #677 (isolation #6) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 12:53 am

Post by Rhinox »

1. DO: replacement doesn't convince me otherwise yet.
Just out of curiousity, what exactly am I supposed to convince you of? What has DO done thats scummy besides suggesting to lynch a claimed doc?

The way I see it, suggesting something and doing something are 2 different things - I don't know what DO's true intentions were, or if he seriously wanted to lynch the claimed doc. I know I have made similar crazy suggestions in the past just to spark a hypothetical discussion to see how people would react.

Bigger post coming today, just wanted to throw that out there for now.
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Post Post #679 (isolation #7) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 2:17 am

Post by Rhinox »

FHQ:

Not too sure what to think. It seems he goes back and forth a bit with his suspicions, especially with RC. Makes me wonder how genuine or serious his suspicions are right now. All in all though, nothing here that would cause me to push for his lynch at this point. Couple questions I have:
Really? A policy lynch? In the position town is now? FOS: Deuxieme Octopus
So what position does the town have to be in before a policy lynch is acceptable?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All we get out of this is that no one targeted RC last night. Not surprising really.
I still find Red a bit scummy, but the watcher claim has put these suspicious somewhat on the backburner. I mean, the results doesn't exonerate him, but I'd feel he could be kept around a bit longer.
I don't follow how RC being watched leads to you shelving your suspicions of RC... Why does RC not being targeted make him a less desireable lynch choice, in your opinion?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

sekinj:

Not too sure here either. I think SL's attack on sekinj was rather silly, but throughout that entire exchange I felt that sekinj was content to just argue back and for with SL instead of scumhunting. Seemed like a way to remain active without actually having to do anything. I also don't like the ad hom attacks.

After the second Doc claim, thats when sekinj's comments peaked my interest the most. First she wanted to speculate about what the setup would have to be to balance to docs. Then she suggested a massclaim, but backpedaled out of it by saying it was probably a bad idea. I think she contradicted herself at one point:
Let's think about what the make-up of scum woudl have to be in order to balance 2 docs...I think if we have two docs, we have to have two scum groups... expecially if you throw a town watcher in there as well...

thoughts?
and two scum parties doesn't make the scum stronger anyway, it is more in favor of the town, sicne their power is split up and they are sometimes working against each other.
-first quote seems to imply that 2 scum groups makes the scum more powerful to counteract the 2 docs; second quote refutes that.

Also, as someone pointed out, the presence of a mafia GF does not have any effect on balance vs. 2 docs and a watcher. Only a cop, and possibly a vig or sk if the GF is also UNK.

So basically, I find sekinj scummier than fhq, and I would support either of their lynches over my own obviously. But absent the presence of a deadline, and with no one yet being close to a lynch today, I don't really see anything in either fhq's play or sekinj's play that jumps out as being automatically lynchworthy. So I'll be taking my time and considering other players.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regarding the 2 doc situation - it has been brought up that 1 might be a mafia doc. A mafia doc would really only be beneficial as a scum PR if there is a town vig, or a second scum group/sk. Otherwise, a mafia doc is useless. Just pointing this out because it will effect how we interpret things later on.
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Post Post #680 (isolation #8) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 2:46 am

Post by Rhinox »

Spolium wrote:I recall that you cited various examples of DO coming across as scummy despite being town (essentially highlighting poor play to explain his actions), and you later prompted others for their thoughts on his meta.

With this in mind, why are you now implying that DO's controversial suggestion may have been a deliberate attempt to guage reactions? Why do you think, all of a sudden, that DO could have been using his initiative, given your earlier stance on his play? If DO was trying to guage reactions, why would he simply replace out with minimal comment about the affair?

It looks like you're just trying out different justifications for DO's behaviour in the hope that one of them gets you off the hook.
The point is that there are countless explanations I could come up with for DO's suggestion. Since I know DO's role is town, the explanation doesn't matter to me. Upon rereading, and knowing DO's role, my explanation is modifying. In absence of any context, I would say suggesting to lynch a claimed doc with no counterclaims, especially after this particular claimed doc counterclaimed a scum fake claim, would be a pretty stupid idea for a townie to make. Of course, I don't see how it would benefit scum to make such a suggestion either. Thus, my post about how DO is prone to bad play as town.

Upon a more complete reread, I can start adding in "or" situations. Such as, "OR, DO was trying to see how players would react." - "OR, maybe DO just didn't believe SL's claim and didn't communicate the message very well." - "OR, maybe DO knew he had to replace out and was trying to be an ass and screw with the town by intentionally playing anti-town". I'm not DO, so I can't just have 1 explanation for his play that I know to be the correct explanation.

(directed at everyone)
If you view DO's suggestion as scummy and a lynchable offense, it shouldn't matter what I say, because nothing I can say will be able to change that. If you don't view DO's suggestion as that scummy, or don't see it as a lynchable offense, then again, whatever I say, or how many explanations that are, won't matter.

Of course, I'm going to say whatever I need to say to prevent my own lynch. Contrary to the popular, oppertunistic belief, self-preservation is not a scum tell. It supports my win-con to not be lynched, regardless of which allignment I have. It only becomes a scumtell if you think I would be willing to settle for an "anybody but me" lynch. But I'll come up with as many hypothetical reasons as I have to for why town-DO would make the suggestion he did.

Can you give me one reason for why it would be beneficial for a scum player to suggest to lynch a claimed uncounterclaimed doc?
Spolium wrote:DO suggested lynching Spring and he did place a vote on her, both in the same post. What do you make of this?
Would you agree that had some players agreed with DO's plan and a bandwagon formed on spring, that scum could have been found?
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Post Post #684 (isolation #9) » Thu Mar 26, 2009 5:31 am

Post by Rhinox »

sekinj wrote:Does anyone have anything against DO/Rhinox except DO wanting to lynch spring?

That move just strikes me as a replacement wanting to stir up trouble or being bored, or not wanting to read the whole game, ectetera. Does one scumtell a scum make? and to throw a little wifom on the fire - why would scum be that stupid?
Feel like I'm being accused of something here, but I'm not quite sure what you're saying. Would you mind clarifying for me?
spolium wrote:Well, at the time some other players seemed uncertain about Spring's claim, to the point of being suspicious; an inexperienced scum player might have tried to take the opportunity to start a bandwagon under the premise of getting information from a lynch, or was perhaps prompted to say something controversial so his scumbuddies look would look good by being critical of it. Maybe he did it to test the water, planning to WIFOM his way out of it later.
Well, I did ask for some reasons scum-DO would make the suggestion. Problem is, I don't see these as likely scenarios. I'll maybe give you the first 1. 2nd or 3rd scenarios don't really seem plausible after just losing a RB, as both situations involve intentially doing something to arouse suspicion. I don't see the first scenario likely either for similar reasons, but I don't think it'll do any good to argue it.
spolium wrote:What has this got to do with my question? You were defending DO's actions on the basis of there being an appreciable difference between suggesting something and doing something. I wondered if you could clarify the relevance of this in light of the fact that DO did both, not ask me a vague counter-question which could apply to any controversial vote made by town or scum in any game of mafia.
Because I can't really give an answer to your question. On the surface, DO suggested to lynch SL, and SL wasn't lynched. Thus, what was suggested wasn't followed through. Realizing that answer is kind of a cop out, an acceptable answer would require me to know what DO's intentions were. Since I don't, the only thing I can do is guess.

Since I know DO is town, if he really wanted to lynch SL, then he disbelieved the claim so much that he felt a lynch was justified. If he didn't really want to lynch SL and was just trying to catch scum, then he wasn't intending to follow through with the lynch, and the vote was an attempt to motivate scum into bandwagoning on.

The problem with that answer is its exactly the same answer you'd expect me to give whether I was town or scum, which makes the answer almost as worthless as the question.
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Post Post #700 (isolation #10) » Sat Mar 28, 2009 5:20 am

Post by Rhinox »

I have given my thoughts on fhq in #679 above. I would still like answers to the 2 questions I've asked - especially the second one.
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Post Post #702 (isolation #11) » Sat Mar 28, 2009 5:59 am

Post by Rhinox »

I'd prefer to wait to hear from fhq first. If he doesn't answer my questions by tonight, I'll be placing my vote for him.
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Post Post #709 (isolation #12) » Sat Mar 28, 2009 10:55 am

Post by Rhinox »

Lynx -
I've narrowed it down because it's obvious that those two are the top suspects of today.
If there's another case on anyone else I've yet to hear it.
If Spolium, Goat and myself have said questionable things like you've said, then why haven't you pointed out these things? I made case against FHQ and I find merit in it. I want him lynched I've made it clear that I think it's enough against him. Through a lynch we'll gain more information. No lynch we're just going to be in the same situation with one less townie.
This post interests me. Its clear you suspect FHQ first, and I guess me second. Do you think there is no case on any other player as in no one else is likely scum, or are you just focusing in because a deadline is close and you're confident about FHQ? The part I bolded makes me think you don't suspect there is any case on any player other than me or FHQ right now (not weaker cases, but no cases whatsoever). I also wonder how closely you have looked at other players in the game besides FHQ or I - it sounds like you're looking for someone else to present a case rather than look for one yourself ("If there is a case I have yet to hear it", rather than "I don't see a case on anyone else right now"). Maybe I'm reading into this too much though and your just making sure we lynch before deadline.

Sekinj - the same information will be gained from whatever happens at night, regardless of whether or not we lynch today, yes? Why do you want to give the scum a second chance at a N1 kill, since thats what would be acomplished by no-lynching today, essentially?

I read through your posts in isolation again - I noticed that since you replaced in, the only player you've given any sort of opinion on has been SL. You argued with him at length, despite believing that he really is a town doc. Most of your comments seem like prodding the town around - you've agreed with players cases, but have never made a single case of your own, to the point where I can't see 1 bit of scumhunting in all of our posts. Can you show me, with examples, of how you've been working to find scum?
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Post Post #711 (isolation #13) » Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:35 pm

Post by Rhinox »

hmmm... at least you're honest. Then again, I've been in a game where a scum player admitted to not scumhunting after being called on it, and tried to play it off as being pro-town because he was gathering information to be able to scumhunt later in the game.

few questions:
-What cases have you been examining, and what is your stance on them?
-What was the point in arguing with SL if you didn't think he was scum, and your argument wasn't meant to find scum through some indirect approach?
-Can you summarizes one of the cases you've been examining that you would like to see followed though to a lynch?


Note to all: activity in this game is starting to depress me, 'specially given the looming deadline. Any chance everyone could post
something
to let everyone know that you're at least reading the thread? Ideally, I think everyone should vote for someone, or support sekinj's no-lynch idea through voting, in their next post. Its 7:30PM EST (GMT-5) right now. at 9:00PM, I will place my vote, depending on answers I receive/don't receive to outstanding questions by then. I will also reserve the right to amend my vote before deadline is reached if time/discussion allows.
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Post Post #713 (isolation #14) » Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:45 pm

Post by Rhinox »

^^ :goodanswer:
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Post Post #714 (isolation #15) » Sat Mar 28, 2009 2:15 pm

Post by Rhinox »

as promised...

vote: fhqwhgads


better than a no-lynch.
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Post Post #810 (isolation #16) » Fri Apr 03, 2009 7:22 am

Post by Rhinox »

Sorry for the absence... its been a busy week.

Here's what I think.

Firstly, neither Spolium or SL should be the lynch choice today - 1 of them was successfully protected N1, and with more than 1 scum remaining it seems like smart play to hunt for other scum, even IF one of spolium or SL are scum. I think its very likely SL was protected.

Who I do think we need to look at under a microscope is Don. First reason, why wouldn't a watcher watch a claimed doc N1, assuming that the claimed doc would be the likely nk target? OK, so don gives us the explanation that he confused watcher with tracker, but should I count ignorance as an acceptable explanation?

Second reason is a bit of wifom, but worth mentioning: Why would scum target jebus? If I were scum, I would assume that even a best case scenario, the kill would fail due to protection from the other doc. Worst case scenario, a scum would be caught making the kill by the watcher. To me, this seems like a textbook example where scum should've tried to kill someone who had no chance of being protected or watched, unless the scum knows that don is not a watcher.

Lets look at some numbers. I'm assuming, of course, that don would always pick one of the 2 claimed docs to watch. If he flipped a coin to pick, that means there was a 50% chance scum would be found. Add in the other doc to the calculation. Say SL picked either don or jebus to protect randomly and here is the complete breakdown:

25% - failed kill, no watch.
25% - successful kill, watched.
25% - failed kill, watched.
25% - Successful kill, no watch.

3 of those scenarios hurt the scum - only a 25% chance of scum getting a positive result based on choosing to kill 1 of the docs. Is the risk worth the reward? I don't think so. Should we just assume scum got lucky on a calculated risk, or was there no risk because don is scum and was told to say he watched SL?

And the rest:
Goat
fhq-reincarnate
Lynx
RC
sekinj

of those 5, I'm most concerned about sekinj, and I need to get a read on Goat and the new and improved FHQ. I'll post some thoughts about sekinj later tonight or this weekend.
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Post Post #894 (isolation #17) » Wed Apr 08, 2009 12:51 am

Post by Rhinox »

Answering Prod. Post coming later today. Apologies.
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Post Post #897 (isolation #18) » Wed Apr 08, 2009 7:17 am

Post by Rhinox »

So, couple things.

Firstly, what I don't like about sekinj. There has been the arguing with SL which thankfully seems to have passed for now, but now there is some bickering with don. What I don't see is whether sekinj thinks don is scummy, or if she just likes to argue and stir stuff up. I just don't see any scum hunting from sekinj at all since she was in the game. However, her very recent posts seem better in that regard but still seem more defensive to me than actually trying to scum hunt. Right now, I'm comfortable voting sekinj, and I'm prepared to lay out a more extensive post justifying all my reasons if need be.

vote: sekinj


On to Don's plan. Firstly, why talk about it like its some brilliant secret scheme to assure victory - if both don and spring are what they say they are, it should be completely obvious thats what should happen from here on out, barring gambits from one or the other to try to catch scum targetting someone else because scum are expecting spring to be watched and don to be protected.

What I don't like is what happens when its lylo and SL dies the night before and don claims to know who made the kill. On one hand, its good because we get into a 50/50 position on the lynch. On the other hand, I hope don can realize that the flaw in his plan is that we can't assume he is confirmed town right now. There are many other scenarios that could happen, but no point in speculating on them all right now.

-----------------------------------------

@spring: did you ever give a reason for why you protected spolium n1? I can't remember...


apologies for the absence... its a busy time right now - work, moving, planning for a wedding in june, taxes, procrastinating :P. I'll try to stay more active from here on out.
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Post Post #903 (isolation #19) » Sun Apr 12, 2009 6:51 am

Post by Rhinox »

hmmm... only don, spolium, RC, and goat have posted
anything
since I posted last wednesday... guess I'm not the only one destined to lurk :twisted:
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Post Post #919 (isolation #20) » Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:45 am

Post by Rhinox »

Ice9 wrote: For clarification, OhGodMyLife is not in this game, as this account is an OhGodMyLife alt.
Oh hey! Nice to see you again. Of course, this means you're Obvscum. Lynch all Liars you know. You're obviously trying to hide who you really are because you're scum ;) :twisted:
DJ wrote: for some odd reason, spring has protected spolium both nights 1 and 2. hopefully tonight she will be protecting me and i watching her.
I thought spring said he protected you last night, and spolium N1?
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Post Post #922 (isolation #21) » Tue Apr 14, 2009 7:42 am

Post by Rhinox »

don_johnson wrote:
Rhinox wrote:
DJ wrote: for some odd reason, spring has protected spolium both nights 1 and 2. hopefully tonight she will be protecting me and i watching her.
I thought spring said he protected you last night, and spolium N1?
^^ incorrect. i thought spring would protect jebus, and jebus me, while i watched spring. spring stated in thread that she chose to protect spolium again instead. we didn't have a necessarily concrete plan, but i was following along with a suggestion by RC thinking that we all would. i was wrong.
OK, I went back and re-read. You're right, for some reason I thought spring said he protected you. It was around the time I replaced in though so I must have got some channels crossed. This changes my perspective a bit. For one, I'm a lot more suspicious of spring now. However, there is still the missing N1 kill, presumedly due to Jebus' protect on spring. And the fact that spring CCed a mafia fakeclaim... Anyone starting to think 2 scumteams of 2 yet?

I'm actually liking my vote where it is though.
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Post Post #924 (isolation #22) » Tue Apr 14, 2009 8:08 am

Post by Rhinox »

hmmm... good points I guess. All that being the case, then I can't see any way spring wasn't given a town doc role PM, sanity concerns aside.
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Post Post #930 (isolation #23) » Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:28 am

Post by Rhinox »

I don't see any reasons why the deadline should be extended. 5 days is more than enough time for all players to give their thoughts, and if there is no concensus by, say, saturday, maybe then we could request to extend the deadline.
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Post Post #936 (isolation #24) » Wed Apr 15, 2009 8:58 am

Post by Rhinox »

"Rhinox - the biggest thing is the weird play by DO" - Sekinj, can you clarify what you meant by this?
ice wrote:If there were a hole in the circle being exploited by scum, it would have become clear based on what happened which of the claims were fake. As it is, leaving the power roles to their own discretion left Jebus unprotected and unwatched, and we come to today still knowing nothing for certain about the alignments of either remaining claimed player and with one dead doctor.
Which brings me to my earlier point - how did scum know it was going to be safe to hit jebus? There was only a 25% chance of a successful, unwatched hit by picking any of the 3 claimed power roles - was it just luck? Did scum assume spring had the best chance of acting on his own? Or did scum have inside information? Inside information would have to point to spring being scum, but recent conversation convinces me that I'd have to believe quite the conspiracy to justify calling spring scum right now. Problem is, I'm also having a hard time believing it was just luck.
ice wrote:Can somebody give me a short and sweet version of the case against sekinj? I'd like to know why she's the most viable lynch at this point, and the deadline looms.
I've prepared a summary of my reasons for my vote on sekinj, and I'll post them after sekinj answers my question at the top of this post.
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Post Post #947 (isolation #25) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 12:45 am

Post by Rhinox »

sekinj wrote:DO wanting to lynch spring. That was the only thing from your character that stood out to me. I think it was just a bored alt, but it is worth remembering.
The reason I asked is because when I replaced in, you heavily defended me against accusations based on DO's actions, so I find it odd that you consider it noteworthy now.

anyways...

Doc-Doc-Watcher-Cop... Which doesn't fit with the rest? Does it seem logical that the town can actually have all 4 of those roles? I think it seems likely now that at least 1 of the 3 remaining are lying.

Sekinj, if you suspect there to be a godfather, why are you willing to ride lynx off as town? Couldn't he be the GF?
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Post Post #950 (isolation #26) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 1:14 am

Post by Rhinox »

unvote


hmm.. What about a mass claim now? with 4 claimed PR, now might not be a bad time. I don't support a no-lynch though.
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Post Post #953 (isolation #27) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 3:27 am

Post by Rhinox »

Spolium wrote: I think tonight Spring should target Sekinj, while Sekinj targets someone else - Goat or Rhinox would be good choices - and Don should target Spring. No sense in making the same mistake two nights in a row.
What makes me or goat good investigation choices?

The paranoid side of me is thinking, with the threat of a godfather and the fact that goat has been under heavy suspicion from some players, that you know something about goat, and I think you threw me in there to try to hide it...

The more rational side of me says that it is anti town to try to direct a cop investigation under most circumstances regardless.
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Post Post #956 (isolation #28) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 3:41 am

Post by Rhinox »

EBWOP: scratch the last part. I missed sekinj's last post on the last page where she asked who to investigate.
Rhinox wrote:
Spolium wrote: I think tonight Spring should target Sekinj, while Sekinj targets someone else - Goat or Rhinox would be good choices - and Don should target Spring. No sense in making the same mistake two nights in a row.
What makes me or goat good investigation choices?

The paranoid side of me is thinking, with the threat of a godfather and the fact that goat has been under heavy suspicion from some players, that you know something about goat, and I think you threw me in there to try to hide it...

The more rational side of me says that it is anti town to try to direct a cop investigation under most circumstances regardless.
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Post Post #960 (isolation #29) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 4:16 am

Post by Rhinox »

Spolium wrote:@don - Whoa there. What exactly makes you think I'm suggesting a no-lynch?

@Rhinox - I mentioned Goat because his play has changed significantly between D1 and D2/3, so he's a grey area. It would help a lot to clear him up. I think you would be a good investigation target because, however townish you seem right now, DO's push for the Spring lynch could still be significant. Those are only my two initial thoughts though; if you can think of better targets for investigation, by all means present them.
Any of the unclaimed players at this point would make good targets - there isn't really anyone I would call "definately town" right now.

Beyond that, if scum know exactly who is going to be investigated, they will be able to take measures to minimize the damage. For example, suppose a town player is set to be investigated. Wouldn't supprise me if that player was the nk.

Regarding the other night actions, there is no chain of best choices that can save all 3 If they're all town. If we're working off the assumption that they're all town, best scenario would be spring protects don watches spring, and sacrifice sekinj to the nk. Thats the only way to guarentee 2 survive to endgame.

If we're assuming any 1 of them are scum, then my preferred choice of action would be to leave unwatched/unprotected the player who is most likely scum out of the 3. 3 scenarios:

1) If we feel don is more likely scum:
don
watches
spring
protects
sekinj
investegates whoever. If don's scum, he won't die.

2) If spring is most likely scum:
spring
protects
don
watches
sekinj
investigates whoever.

3) If sekinj is most likely scum, then don and spring watch/protect each other and sekinj investigates whoever.

But we're still a ways from that point though... Theres discussion to be had now, and one of those 3 may end up being lynched yet.
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Post Post #967 (isolation #30) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 5:26 am

Post by Rhinox »

You assume too much, sekinj.

Option 1 means if don and spring are both honest, don will be killed tonight with no consequences, leaving spring to be killed tomorrow. The plus side is that gives you 2 free investigations IF you're telling the truth. Obviously, this option is best if we think don is more likely scum of the 3. Don wouldn't be able to be nked if he's scum, meaning spring couldn't be killed without being watched (or fake watched in worst case scenario), and you couldn't be nked.

Option 2 means yes, spring dies first, followed by don, if they're both honest. Again, you get 2 investigations. This is best if we think spring is lying. Spring then couldn't be nked, and if don were nked, it would prove spring was scum. You *could* be killed, but we would get a watch result from don.

Option 3 means you die if you're being honest, but if you don't die, it would probably prove you are scum. Of course this option is used in the situation where we think you are most likely lying, and don and spring would be perpetually safe until endgame unless scum sac's one of their own to kill spring.

Your assumption that spring is the auto target tonight is false. A doc is not as powerful as you seem to think it is, especially when compared to the other potential PRs of cop and watcher.

If all 3 of you are being honest, then at least 2, or maybe even 3 of this list are scum: Goat, Ice, Lynx, RC, Rhinox, and Spolium. Of this list, Lynx gets a pass for now due to the innocent result. I know I'm not scum. I want to look mostly at Goat and Spolium. Ice and RC both seem very town to me, but I'm a conspiracy nut - I worry I'm being played by RC.

@Ice: There has got to be more than just DJ-scum remaining, if DJ is scum. However, if DJ is being honest about his claim and we lynch him, that leaves spring unwatched tonight.

Why not leave DJ alive to watch spring just in case he's being honest? I would then condone following through with the rest of option 1.
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Post Post #968 (isolation #31) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 5:36 am

Post by Rhinox »

Actually, now that I think about it, if you add in at the end of option 1 that sekinj investigates don, then thats a pretty tight loop - sekinj can't be killed, and would learn weather or not don is scum. That way if spring dies, we would know whether or not he was giving us honest watch results.

If all 3 are telling the truth, we're golden. If just 1 is lying, they either have to play along, or sacrifice 1 of their own to kill 1 of the the 2 honest PRs. If 2 are lying, however, the town is in a position to get played big time.
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Post Post #984 (isolation #32) » Thu Apr 16, 2009 6:55 am

Post by Rhinox »

ice wrote:I am virtually certain that Lynx is town - either sek is truthfully a cop, in which case there's an innocent investigation on him, or sek is lying, in which case Lynx is a real cop counterclaiming.
Or sek is naive, and lynx is scum taking agvantage of that to get sekinj lynched.

Or lynx is GF, and taking advantage

And then lynx thinks he can argue his way out of his own lynch after a sekinj mislynch, due to the confusion of how many claims there have been.

(not saying I think those are the most likely scenarios, just don't want to ignore the possibility)

If there really are 2 docs, possibly with sanity issues, there could very well be 2 cops with sanity issues, and the mod is screwing with us.
ice wrote:There are way too many claims. Lynx's results don't rule out the possibility that he's naive. I mention this because Rhinox is one of my top two suspects outside of the claimed group, based almost entirely on likelihood of being Budja's scumbuddy.
Well, it would take a guilty result, or a scum flip from an innocent result to prove either sek or lynx were naive. Just sayin, even if I flip town at some point, still doesn't prove lynx isn't naive.
ice wrote:So Spring should certainly be protecting Lynx. Yes it removes the random chance WIFOM from the scum kill, but it also means that the most confirmed town power role lives regardless, unless scum Spring wants to sacrifice herself to kill him.

don's watch should be on Spring. Lynx's investigation is up to him, but it should probably be hitting sek, since with Spring's protect he's guaranteed to live to tomorrow to possibly confirm her. sek's investigation should still be someone in the pool of unclaimed players.

And I think that covers all of the bases.
This plan sucks if you think lynx could be naive - we'll be no better off tomorrow if lynx has an innocent on sekinj.

This is all becoming too convoluted... my head hurts :(
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Post Post #1010 (isolation #33) » Fri Apr 17, 2009 2:31 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Just thought of something...

Sekinj and Lynx, why don't you 2 do the same type of role PM flavor comparison that Jebus and spring did? It could give us an indication if one of you two are lying.

(If it was allowed before, it should be allowed now, right?)

I think sekinj should give a word which rhymes with the first couplet, in which lynx can verify and then reciprocate a word which rhymes with the second couplet for sekinj to verify.

(Assuming the structure is still AABB, as my role PM is also AABB)
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Post Post #1015 (isolation #34) » Sat Apr 18, 2009 1:33 pm

Post by Rhinox »

Ice9 wrote:Spolium is taking a long time to give us a claim.

Claiming your role as town takes seconds.

Crafting a convincing fakeclaim is a serious time investment.
Spolium hasn't posted anywhere on the site since friday, so I don't think he's intentionally stalling.
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #35) » Sun Apr 19, 2009 3:36 am

Post by Rhinox »

Goat, you do realize you contradict yourself a couple times in that last post right?

The major contradiction being:
goat wrote:I don't have anything substantial on Spolium.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regardless of role claims, I still think Spolium is our best lynch, strictly on behavior.
The minor contradiction being that you feel strongly that at least one of the claimed PR's is scum, but you'd rather lynch a player you don't have anything substantial on.
Goat wrote:I'm willing to claim if necessary. I don't see any reason not to go through with a mass claim at this point. Who remains unclaimed? Me, Rhinox...anyone else? Ice?
Me, you, ice, and RC, I think.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Don, have you ever played in a game with a watcher or tracker before?
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #36) » Sun Apr 19, 2009 10:43 am

Post by Rhinox »

don_johnson wrote:
Rhinox wrote:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Don, have you ever played in a game with a watcher or tracker before?
i believe i was in one game with a "jack of all trades" who had a one shot tracker ability. other than that, no. i have been in mostly newbs and minis with basic roles.

I checked your posts... all 40 pages of them, to check all the games you've been in. Open 111 had a watcher role possible, but it was mod abandoned after 30-some pages. Mini 730 had your joat tracker, as well as a full tracker. And Mini 722 had a watcher, but you were lynched D1.

See, I had to check because I still have a hard time believing that you didn't understand your role ability. Even if I believed that you didn't learn what a watcher was in O111 or M722, you certainly should have learned what a tracker was in M730. Upon receiving a role of watcher in this game, I'm not sure I can believe you would interpret your role as a tracker without at least a PM to the mod asking, "hey, is a watcher the same as a tracker?"

Furthermore, I'm not a mod, but I'm pretty sure its standard practice for all mods in a normal games to give a role PM to give more than just a role name, I.E. instructions for what you're supposed to do, and what results you should expect. And it really should have been a slam dunk watch on SL N1.

I also read back to when you claimed... you never said why you targeted RC. So... why did you choose to
track
RC (since you thought you were tracking)?
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Post Post #1042 (isolation #37) » Mon Apr 20, 2009 10:55 am

Post by Rhinox »

"Speculate? No, RC, you said: " If we can suspect one of the Cops is insane, we then know sekinj would be that insane Cop, giving us another mafia in Rhinox". How did you know that Sekinj would be the insane cop, unless you could verify that Lynx's information was accurate? "


This is a good point here... I overlooked it initially. If Sekinj is the insane cop, how does that make me mafia? Presumably, that would mean lynx would be a sane cop, and lynx is the one with an innocent on me :?:*headscratch*
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #38) » Tue Apr 21, 2009 1:23 am

Post by Rhinox »

sekinj wrote:
Spolium wrote:
Rhinox wrote:This is a good point here... I overlooked it initially. If Sekinj is the insane cop, how does that make me mafia? Presumably, that would mean lynx would be a sane cop, and lynx is the one with an innocent on me :?:*headscratch*
If sekinj is an insane cop then Lynx could not be the sane cop; he would be scum.
given his claim, I've also ruled out that he is a godfather. If he was a godfather he'd be sitting pretty with an inno result, rather than putting him self out there with a counter. So either I am sane, or he is scum (from my pov)
ok.... I'm still not following though... That could mean that lynx is lying to protect his partner, or it could mean that lynx claimed innocent on an innocent so he would hope I would support his claim.

So, why then would RC make a statement that If sekinj is insane, rhinox is scum? Why not, if sekinj is insane, lynx is scum and possibly Rhinox?

Furthermore, either of them could be naive, and that wouldn't result in the other being scum. IMO, I think naive is more common than insane.
Spolium wrote:Can ALL the claimed power roles please confirm whether they received a brief description of their role mechanic in their role PM?
I second this request.
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Post Post #1062 (isolation #39) » Tue Apr 21, 2009 4:33 am

Post by Rhinox »

Don, please paraphrase your role PM. You say you have all the same things that sekinj has, so please give me a paraphrase of your role name, what you need to do each night, what the results could be, and your win condition.

FWIW, this knew exchange confirms to me at least that either Don and Sekinj are both town, in which Don really did botch his ability, or Don is scum and Sekinj is town and Don is backpedaling big time now to try to fix his story. Either way, I feel much better about Sekinj. I can't really see Sekinj-scum and Don-town being possible right now, and the only way they can both be scum is if they're different factions.
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Post Post #1065 (isolation #40) » Tue Apr 21, 2009 4:42 am

Post by Rhinox »

hmmm... the plot thickens...

Perhaps, spring, that is because your role is a passive ability where you don't receive results, whereas watcher and cop are both role where a result is expected?

Just waiting to hear from lynx now.
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Post Post #1068 (isolation #41) » Tue Apr 21, 2009 5:08 am

Post by Rhinox »

Don wrote:rhinox: if the information both sekinj and i are saying exists, is something that you believe should exist in a pm from the mod, how does our confirming now that it does, make either of us town?
Because you and sekinj contradicted, and then you changed your story to allign with her. Furthermore, between sekinj, spring, and lynx, sekinj was most suspected to be scum. I would not have expected scum sekinj to claim what was in her role PM first, assuming that she had no way of knowing you would change your story (i.e. she would have to had assumed you were correct the first time), as well as without knowning whether spring or lynx would be able to corroborate your story or hers. Thus, I now strongly believe sekinj is town.

Oh, and pretty sure paraphrasing is always allowable, so long as you're not quoting. Thats pretty much site standard. Paraphrasing should be pretty easy, since the role was written in poetry, and you can paraphrase in normal writing. So quit stallin' :P
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Post Post #1082 (isolation #42) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 1:30 am

Post by Rhinox »

don wrote:okay:

there is a poem about me sitting outside someones house.

it says i am town watcher and that i may choose a player each night and will be told who targets my choice.

it also includes my win condition.
Reading this, I find it unbelievable that you could not understand your role ability for N1. It seems pretty clear to me. Which part made you believe your role was more like a tracker?
lynx wrote:Sekinj and Rhinox you're the only ones not voting. How do you stand on a Spoilum deadline lynch?
I don't think I can get behind a spolium lynch. Recently, his posts seem very town to me, and he shares my suspicions of Don, which I view as genuine. Upon replacing in, Spolium seemed scummy based on my initial gut read, due to his interactions with Budja. But those interactions are WIFOM and null, as town can inadvertantly defend scum against what the town player feels is a bad case, and whether or not scum will defend their partner is WIFOM.

After going back to look at my early posts after replacing in, I remember saying this, and it still holds true:
Rhinox wrote:I'm also suspicious of everyone who wasn't voting for Budja, since budja was a scum PR - don, fhq, plonky, and Goat.
Of these 4, I believe there is at least 1 scum - I highly doubt all scum partners bussed the mafia RB. Goat cleared up that he was essentially on the wagon. Plonky is Sekinj, who I believe to be town. FHQ is Ice, and then of course we have Don. I feel very strongly that at least one of Ice or Don (and possibly goat, but mostly ice or don) is scum. Thus, it is one of those 2 I would like to see lynched today.

I agree that RC's latest posts have seemed sketchy, but I think the best course of action is to look for scum among those who didn't vote for budja. I wouldn't be able to believe that all other scum voted to bus the mafia RB on D1.

In the case of a deadline, I would only be willing to vote spolium if my vote was needed to prevent a no-lynch, as I feel any lynch is better than a no-lynch. Absent of the deadline, I'm not sure spolium is even in my top 3 choices.
don wrote:i understand rhinox's reasoning here, but i am still highly suspicious of the claim. rhinox mentioned before(in thread) of what he thought a role pm should contain. they could be a scumpair that tried to set me up, but that would be a bit convoluted so no
I feel its pretty straightforward logic. Maybe I can explain it a better way through an order of events type of analysis.

Lets make an assumption that sekinj is scum, and don and lynx are town, and analyze events to check this assumption.
1: I say what I expect a role PM should contain.
2: You claim that your role PM speaks nothing of results.
3: Sekinj contradicts your claim by saying that her role PM gives explicit instructions and what to expect as a result - important thing to note that if sekinj is scum here, she would have to assume you were correct when you said your role PM didn't indicate what to expect as a result of your choice. Thus, she would expect that lynx would be able to corroborate your version and not yours. Thus, it would be scum suicide for sekinj to lie to contradict you.
4: your story changed to match sekinj.
5: spring and lynx corroborated sekinj's version.

If you objectively look at these events, the only way sekinj could possibly be scum is either A) she got really lucky and guessed you were mistaken about what was in your role PM, or B) she somehow knows exactly what is in a cop role PM. The idea that sekinj and I being a scum pair trying to team up to get you lynched is pretty proposterous, considering that still doesn't explain at all how scum sekinj knew what was actually in the Power role PM.
goat wrote:I consider it somewhat of a town tell, by simple nature of scum not wanting to be the first to claim anything. However, I don't think it's terribly hard for scum to claim the way their role PM was arranged, considering scum have roles as well as town.
This is a good point, but not enough to sway my belief about skeinj. We know budja was a RB, but I don't know if the structure of budja's role PM would help sekinj fabricate the structure of a town investigative role PM. Not only that, we don't know if the structure of the Budja's role PM is something that was shared between the scum. Maybe there are other scum power roles we don't know about, but unless there are scum cops/watchers/trackers or other investigative roles, I doubt sekinj would have been able to correctly match the structure of lynx's role PM.

So, in case you guys haven't figured out, I think don or ice should be lynched today. I strongly believe Don is lying about his role and has been trying to spin his way out of it since I started questioning him more directly about it today. Don is my first choice for lynch today, Ice is my second choice. I strongly believe one of these two are scum.

vote: don
, and I will reevaluate my vote as we near deadline.
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Post Post #1086 (isolation #43) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 3:16 am

Post by Rhinox »

Don wrote:i understand your line of reasoning, but we have no way of knowing what other scum roles exist. i am much more suspicious of the late day 1 votes that jumped the wagon with little to no reasoning.
Refresh my memory - which votes were those?
Don wrote:
(1)
you are ignoring the fact that scum could most likely present their role pm to look town.
(2)
you are ignoring the fact that lynx could be sekinj's scum partner.
(3)
you seem to be focusing on one thing: getting rid of the only power role who can protect the claimed town doc.
1) huh? I don't follow. Sounds like you're saying that scum could attempt to fake claim, which of course is obvious.
2) I find this so extremely unlikely that yes, I am ignore the possibility. It does not seem to be a realistic possibility.
3) If you flip watcher, it will be up to the rest of the town to determine what my intentions were and act accordingly. IMO, I have very low confidence that you actually are a watcher, and you will either have no results in order to maintain the status quo, or results we can't immediately trust due to your unknown allignment. Regardless, I am not motivated by the fear of being wrong. I think you're scum, and I'll handle whatever consequences of being wrong if/when they arise.
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Post Post #1096 (isolation #44) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 8:43 am

Post by Rhinox »

I'm here... I'm just not sure about either RC or spolium. I feel RC has a few unanswered questions and I would hate to see a rush lynch form on him without giving him a chance to answer. Spolium at least fits my analysis better regarding who didn't vote for budja - in that even though Spolium DID vote for budja, his vote seemed more like potential bussing. RC, IIRC, was voting budja pretty much all D1, and I just don't see that a likely action considering budja was a scum power role. Also, Spolium is (IMO) more connected to don and spring based on interactions today, so it would give me a clearer picture about those players tomorrow. If my choice was forced between Spolium and RC, at this late hour, I would have to pick Spolium, based on the belief that his lynch, even if its a mislynch, has the potential to provide the most useful information to the town.

However, I still want to be on record that I'm fairly confident that one of Don or ice are scum, based on my belief that I find it improbable that all the other scum partners to budja (be it 1 or 2 or whatever) were voting to bus him. I adamantly believe Don is lying and he is my first choice. Ice is my second choice by process of elimination, and I wish there was more time to examine him closer and get some more input from him.

So, I will leave my vote for now in hopes that there will be some support for my case on don or ice, although I doubt it. I will willingly vote for a spolium lynch at deadline if need be, and I will reluctantly vote for RC or goat only if my vote is the only way a lynch can be made before deadline. I will not under any circumstances vote for sekinj, spring or lynx at deadline - I would rather no lynch.
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Post Post #1109 (isolation #45) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 9:57 am

Post by Rhinox »

I'm here. Can anyone give me an updated VC real quick before deadline?
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Post Post #1112 (isolation #46) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 9:59 am

Post by Rhinox »

vote: RC


no sense in making you both switch when its clear you both prefer RC.
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Post Post #1120 (isolation #47) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 10:01 am

Post by Rhinox »

/in 1 min before deadline... I hope its a good choice.

lolz at the simulposts.
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Post Post #1123 (isolation #48) » Wed Apr 22, 2009 10:04 am

Post by Rhinox »

That was too close for comfort, Rhinox.
I was watching the clock ;)

Pretty sure we would be ok so long as we beat Tony to locking the thread anyways.
Did we ever get any confirmation from don on whether or not he's watching spring tonight?
He better...

And with that, see you on the proverbial flip side.
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Post Post #1131 (isolation #49) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:10 am

Post by Rhinox »

This game is meant to be screwing with us, I think.

Top 3 suspects in no particular order: Don, ice, and spolium.

I wish I could say "yay I'm confirmed now", but i realize that sanities might not be revealed, and there still could be the threat of a godfather.

Although I still think don is lying scum, my suspicion has actually dropped a small bit, due to the fact that with all the power roles, I think we're meant to get paranoid/distracted and lynch them off, rather than searching for scum. I am interested to hear what don claims his results are.

I really wish we had RC's results. Maybe we should comb through his posts looking for crumbs to see who he targetted and if he got any interesting results?

I have a feeling this is going to be a long, rough day...
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Post Post #1132 (isolation #50) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:12 am

Post by Rhinox »

Also want to add that upon doing some rereads during the night, I'm not too suspicious of goat, and I'm more suspicious of sekinj than I was yesterday.
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Post Post #1134 (isolation #51) » Sun Apr 26, 2009 12:02 pm

Post by Rhinox »

don wrote:it should be pretty obvious that RC tracked me at some point.
How so?
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Post Post #1145 (isolation #52) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:43 am

Post by Rhinox »

I agree that its looking bad for spolium at the moment. I also want to point out that don and ice can be scum working together here... however, that could just be my paranoia because its hard to argue with the crumb goat found.

I
was
a vanilla townie, or so I thought. However, when I checked the thread I had a PM from the mod that stated I was activated in my secret role as a
deputy
due to lynx's death. So, good news is I have lynx's results: Lynx investigated Goat last night, and an innocent result was returned. Coupled with goat's last post, I am believing that goat is in fact innocent, although GF isn't technically out of the question.

Thats also why I posted that I was more suspicious of sekinj - I was skeptical of the presence of 2 cops and a deputy. Although, 2 cops, a deputy, 2 docs, 2 watchers and a tracker doesn't make any sense either in a mini, with only 1 townie killed, another 2 claimed, and a mafia RB killed.

Spolium does bring up a good point though...
Is it normal for someone to be told they're a doc but actually be a jailkeeper?
However, we still have A) The N1 no kill, and B) why would scum-spring CC a scum doc fakeclaim? Only thing is if it was all just a big gambit - 1 scum claims doc, the other CC's, when 1 of them gets lynched, the other looks confirmed. Then send in a no-kill, which makes us think the real doc (jebus) preveneted the kill attempt, which essentially "confirms" spring. Then, jebus' death further confirms jebus' role/results, and we start PR speculating, which the other scum play on to claim other power roles.

So... What do we know...

100% confirmed roles:
Doctor (Jebus)
Cop (lynx)
Tracker (RC)
Townie (fhqwhgads)

Mafia RB (Budja)

100% confirmed to me:
Deputy (cop) (Rhinox)

Claimed Roles:
Townie x2 (Spolium, Goat)
Watcher x2 (Don, ice)
Cop (sekinj)
Doc (SL)

Claimed Results:
Lynx/Rhinox Cop:
N1-Jebus innocent
N2-Rhinox innocent
N3-Goat innocent

Sekinj Cop:
N1-No action submitted
N2-Lynx innocent
N3-Blocked

Spring Doc:
N1-Protected Spolium
N2-Protected Spolium
N3-Protected Sekinj

Jebus Doc:
N1-Protected Spring
N2-Killed, (targeted goat)

Don Watch:
N1-RC,
saw nothing

N2-Spring,
saw himself

N3-Spring, saw ice target spring

ice watch:
N1-no action submitted
N2-watched goat, saw jebus target goat
N3-Spring, saw don target spring

RC track:
crumb found that RC probably tracked Don

in the same post as the other crumb:
Unlike some others, I didn't find that whole DO "let's lynch a Doctor claim" thing to be scummy. Like I said at the time, seemed more newbish than scummy to me. Rhinox may be a little overly concerned with defense and not enough with offense, but that really isn't enough to put him over the edge. I've played with Rhinox before, and (don't want to talk about it too much because it's an ongoing game) I think I have a better feel for reading Rhinox. Like, you can't really see it here, but I can
track
the way he was pressuring people yesterday to explaining why DO was scummy other than because of that one comment I mentioned. You can argue it might seem a little too defensive, but to me that shows he's interested in getting other player's opinions.
So I guess RC must have tracked me/DO at some point and got no result. That might explain why I was feeling that RC was buddying up to me hard.

Also found this. Either RC is really good, or this gave ice the idea to fake claim watcher:
RC wrote:
ice 978 wrote: There are also a lot of paired roles going on here - dead doc and claimed doc, two claimed cops. Could be a pattern, could just be coincidental fake claim(s).

Hinting at an unclaimed Watcher, Ice?
OK, so I still have to read RC some more, but this is all the known/claimed information. Logic puzzle time... which pieces don't fit?

I noticed a discrepincy in Don's reported results - when he reported that he watched RC, he said he saw nothing. However, after N2, he said he saw himself target spring:
Don wrote:role claim: town watcher
night 1 target: Red Coyote
results: confusing

i misinterpreted my ability. i thought its properties were more akin to the role "tracker" and have been back and forth with the mod as to my results.
My first return PM stated that RC was home alone all night.
when asked to clarify i got the response that as watcher i only see who targets my target and am given no information as to alignment. however, based on my continuing conversation i am leaning towards RC being town despite his entirely crap argument. has anyone here been watcher before? mods answers were puzzling to me and i have been wrestling with the results.
Don wrote:target: spring lullaby.
noone targeted springlullaby but me.
So... slip?

I've rambled long enough for now I think...
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Post Post #1147 (isolation #53) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:53 am

Post by Rhinox »

Sekinj, multiple choice quiz for you:

Since I'm a cop now, I had lynx results reported to me. Last night I got results about goat that said either:

A) Not Guilty
B) Innocent
C) Town Alligned
D) Not Scum Alligned
E) None of the above

Which choice above matches the result you got about lynx N2 from your investigation?
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Post Post #1151 (isolation #54) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 3:30 am

Post by Rhinox »

sekinj wrote:Rhin - B) Innocent


spring - How many scum do we have remaining? We could have 2 scum left. Spoilum sent in the kill N1 and was blocked, and the second night scum2 sent in the kill and was successful.
Interesting...

My results actually said A) Not Guilty.

Therefore, I believe sekinj is lying and we have found scum.

vote: sekinj
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Post Post #1158 (isolation #55) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 5:28 am

Post by Rhinox »

Spolium wrote:One thing which stands out to me now is the apparent abundance of cop roles.

@Rhinox - Please paraphrase your deputy role PM.
Technically, I don't have a deputy role PM. The Role PM I received when I replaced in was a standard townie PM, with no indication I was a deputy.

When I went to check the thread at the start of the day, I saw I had a message from the mod. It said I was activated as a deputy, and I was given the investigation results of Lynx, as well as a little poem.
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Post Post #1161 (isolation #56) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:07 am

Post by Rhinox »

goat wrote:Rhinox: I'll echo the call for details on your deputy roll PM. I'm interested specifically in how your PM is worded in regards to how you learn results. Meaning, does your PM imply the existence of multiple cops/deny the possibility of multiple cops, etc?
See above^^ my previous post.

Until this morning, I was a normal townie, with no indication of being a deputy. This morning, I recieved a PM saying I was activated as a deputy. I was given a list of Lynx's 3 investigations results: N1 Jebus, N2 myself, and N3 Goat all Not guilty. As part of the flavor poem (paraphrased), I was told that I could ensure Lynx's death wasn't for nothing. It also says I assume my role because lynx has died, although it does not specify that I could only replace lynx or if I could replace whichever cop was killed first, if there is more than 1 cop. It gives no indication of how many cops exist.
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Post Post #1171 (isolation #57) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 8:50 am

Post by Rhinox »

I think this semantics argument is silly, however...

i would have said "I got no result, so I assume I was blocked."

When I read "I was blocked", thats what I assumed.
sekinj wrote:Rhin - I doubt the mod is looking very favorably on our attempts to compare PMs at this point. he may be intentionally adding differences.
You mean like the
differences
similarities we were using to confirm jebus and spring? :roll:
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Post Post #1173 (isolation #58) » Mon Apr 27, 2009 9:25 am

Post by Rhinox »

sekinj wrote:
Rhinox wrote:
sekinj wrote:Rhin - I doubt the mod is looking very favorably on our attempts to compare PMs at this point. he may be intentionally adding differences.
You mean like the
differences
similarities we were using to confirm jebus and spring? :roll:
exactly. When we tried to do that again, he told us to desist.
Good thing we're not comparing PM's then. We're comparing results. ;)
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Post Post #1214 (isolation #59) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 2:10 am

Post by Rhinox »

@goat/Spolium: When I read sekinj saying "I was blocked", I assumed she meant "I got no result", because I believe it is the convention to be told you got no result rather than being told you were specifically roleblocked. However, were I to receive no result, I would assume I was blocked. Thus, I don't fault sekinj for saying she was blocked, although the way I would have worded it would have been something akin to "I got no result, so I assume I was blocked", rather than the certainty and vagueness the phrase "I was blocked" implies.

However, I feel the entire conversation is irrelevant, because I believe sekinj is lying. I think don makes good points in 1202, and I think spring makes even better points in 1207, specifically the one where sekinj suggested a massclaim as cop on D2 without any result.

Took the liberty of removing the doubleness
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Post Post #1218 (isolation #60) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 3:30 am

Post by Rhinox »

springlullaby wrote:No one dare hammer before there is a response.
Is there anyone in particular you're looking for a response from?

Spoliums post is interesting, but only speculation unless sekinj flips scum power role upon her death. Even then, its still just guessing.
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Post Post #1222 (isolation #61) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 7:22 am

Post by Rhinox »

unvote
for a moment...

update coming shortly.
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Post Post #1223 (isolation #62) » Tue Apr 28, 2009 7:42 am

Post by Rhinox »

ok...
revote: sekinj


Sorry for that. i had a bit of a fit of paranoia about the wording in part of my new deputy role... I got it cleared up with the mod, turns out it was just a flavor issue in the poetry, nothing important. I'd have to quote the PM to show you what I mean.

Continue on, nothing to see here :P
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Post Post #1243 (isolation #63) » Sat May 02, 2009 9:18 am

Post by Rhinox »

Don is lying. I'm not a cop. I was gambitting. The extent of my deputy power was only getting Lynx's results. Therefore, I didn't target anybody last night.

confirm vote:don


FYI: the reason I unvoted yesterday was because the mod PMed me to ask if I was aware I wasn't actually a cop, or if I misread my PM. I revoted when I decided I could gambit and possibly catch scum. I was hoping to be nked with a watch result, or blocked with a watch result. Nice play don... you re-convinced me you were town after I was certain you were scum. Now you have to die. I probably wouldn't have even considered you for lynch today if it weren't for your last post.
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Post Post #1247 (isolation #64) » Sat May 02, 2009 4:14 pm

Post by Rhinox »

"Rhinox: how do you justify don being scum in term of traceable night actions?"

First things first. As I know there was no way I submitted any action last night, its clear to me don is lying scum. The only traceable night actions are that RC maybe tracked don somewhere don said he targetted, and ice watched don target ?you?. That would make don is a mafia watcher, I'm guessing. Thats the only way he would be able to get right who targetted who. This is my word against his. He claims I'm the only one to target ice, and I know thats a lie.
Don wrote:you've been painting me as scum from way back.
It appears there was good reason for that. The best argument I can make is to ask everyone to go look back at my original case for voting don, just before we lynched RC. I think I was dead on, and it was clear don was clearly scrambling to get any explanation to stick. The only thing against me all game is right now don's claim that I targetted ice, which is hardly verifiable.
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Post Post #1249 (isolation #65) » Sat May 02, 2009 6:01 pm

Post by Rhinox »

"Explain the gambit to me. You were pulling a gambit in hopes of drawing scum fire?"

It was actually an inadvertant gambit, because in most cases, when a deputy is activated after the death of a cop, the deputy actually becomes a cop. Therefore, I assumed incorrectly that I was a cop, when the extent of my deputy ability was that I only received Lynx's results.

I thought about coming clean yesterday before the sekinj lynch, but I really thought sekinj was scum due to the not guilty vs. innocent contradiction. I also though that don and/or ice might watch me last night and see either a nk attempt or a RB attempt on me. Since I'm still basically only a townie, yes I was hoping to draw scum fire away from the other real power roles, so even if nobody watched me, me being nked or blocked would have been best case scenario for the town. I was also worried that going back on what I said right before a lynch was about to happen would be distracting and cause people to rethink lynching sekinj, who I really thought was scum.

You're right that don is definately a watcher, I just didn't really expect that he was going to end up being a mafia watcher and try to frame me. It all makes perfect sense now though.

Also, I should point out that I have tried gambits before as town successfully. The only really obvious one was in Mafia 87. You'll have to read it to get the whole effect, but it basically won the game for the town. I can't give you any examples of my scum play evidence of whether I would fake a gambit because I was only ever mafia in newbie 645, my very first game on the site.

The only thing is in this game, I didn't sneak in my gambit code signal (a '*' typo). Usually, I throw one of those in when I'm up to something, everyone thinks its a typo, and then later I can go back and explain why I put the * there. The goal is eventually I will be able to signal to certain players that know the signal that I'm up to something when I trust them. The reason I didn't throw it in in this game is because the gambit was improvised last minute, and Ice (OGML) would have recognized the signal and I didn't 100% trust him.


"Rhinox doesn't have anything to verify his claim of deputy, and now has claimed that he doesn't actually have the ability to make investigations, which seems kind of sketch to me. That would be a good way as scum to justify not bringing in any new results for the rest of the game. However, I also have to take into consideration that he cleared me by nature of claiming Lynx's innocent on me. I guess as scum, he would have had to fake a result for Lynx's last night."

Theres 2 points I was hoping someone would realize without me having to point them out and make them WIFOM.

1) Does it make any sense for me if I'm scum to fake claim cop and then instead of making up fake results today, say nevermind, I'm really not a cop?

2) If Don was really a town watcher and me scum, why would the scumteam have me submit the nk when I was set up to give fake cop results? It would be suspicious giving results on a player who is dead, especially with the chance the a watcher might see me be the only one to target the player.

I also want to point out that claiming lynx's innocent on you should have no bearing on anything. If I'm scum and you're town, then its not hard to fake an innocent result on someone I know to be town. We also don't know Lynx's sanity, and you could still be a GF.


"Rhinox, did you get any information from Sekinj? As a deputy, would you not get info from both cops? "

I will PM tony to check, but no, I did not receive any information from sekinj's results. Could mean I was only linked to lynx, or could mean I only got results from the first cop to die, or that I only got results from the sane cop, or ???
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Post Post #1254 (isolation #66) » Mon May 04, 2009 2:10 am

Post by Rhinox »

goat wrote:Claiming deputy is different than claiming cop. It's easier as scum to "cop" out and have a viable reason why you would no longer get results than it is to have to keep providing fake results all game. You would either have to keep semi-clearing people by giving out innocent results on townies,
or you would have to eventually pit yourself in a 1-1 counterclaim by saying you got a scum result on someone.
Granted, you would never fully be clearing anyone by nature of godfather as a possibility or the possibility that Lynx wasn't a sane cop, but nonetheless it's less appealing to lynch someone who has a cop innocent on their shoulders.
The bolded is essentially what don is doing :roll:

Look, there are many things I could have done if I were scum claiming deputy yesterday. For one, if I were scum and didn't want to semi clear any more townies, I could have said I had an innocent on my scum partner, or I could have claimed to have been blocked. For that matter, why go through the trouble of claiming deputy and pretending it means cop when I could have just claimed the deputy part with lynx's results and not even made up the part about being cop? The point is, I messed up and misread the deputy PM, and then thought I could turn it into an opportunity to find scum. I didn't work as intended, but it did fid scum. Its just a matter of whether or not I can convince you guys. If don doesn't lie about me this morning, I come clean about my gambit, and we'd be having an entirely different conversation right now. For one, Don would have been on the bottom of my list of people to lynch today. Instead, don does what everybody was worried about since he claimed and says he saw who made the kill in LyLo and here we are.
goat wrote:I don't follow. You said that you don't have the capability to make an investigation, so what fake cop results would you be setting yourself up to give? Secondly, why would making a night kill prevent you from being able to lie about giving fake cop results?

The gist of your argument here from what I gather is "it wouldn't make sense for me to be the one to make a NK." In reality, it would make a lot of sense. Who of the remaining players in this game as scum would be better fitted to make a kill? You were under practically no suspicion, and had claimed investigative powers, making it unlikely spring would try to block you.
Are you intentionally playing stupid? If I were scum pretending to be a cop, then of course I would setting myself to give fake cop results. But if I submit the kill, the only player I could claim to have investigated was the player who died, and I would be doubly screwed if I were the only one to target that player. Don't you think its all too convenient now for don to have given the results he's giving now?
Goat wrote:I'm leaning towards believing don more.
I'm trying to think of what motivation he would have as scum to lie about Rhinox targeting Ice.
As scum, he could simply have continued to give truthful results and probably skated to a win. Tying himself in a 1-1 against Rhinox just seems unnecessarily risky play for scum in that situation.
Easy. If I get lynched, scum wins. Clearly don would never try this if there would be a tomorrow. He would be lynched then after I flip town. Scum are probably expecting that because ice confirmed don as a watcher, that don would just be believed by default and today would be a quick, easy win. Playing "honest" would have carried more risk because there would have been a greater chance of a scum lynch today.
Goat wrote:I'd like to hear opinions from Spolium and Spring, though.
I agree and I'll answer any questions you want, but I realize all I have to offer in defense of myself is a big pile of WIFOM and kudos to don and his partner for getting me stuck in this position, so if you guys are going to lynch me for it don't bother wasting your time and mine talking all day about who my scum partner could be - If I'm really scum, I'm experienced enough to not give you guys any information that would help pinpoint my scum partner, so any speculating you would want to do you could do just as well after my lynch. I say its a waste of time because if I get lynched, we're having post game discussion by dinnertime tonight.

I think the best non-wifom point I can get right now is what goat brought up - when don gave his fake result on me, he didn't even vote for me. The initial answer he gave was"
don wrote:target: ice9

only rhinox targeted ice9

i would vote, but i am thinking this is lylo.


goat/rhinox?
Whats he worried about if he's telling the truth? I think its pretty clear he's just trying to play the "responsible townie" by appealing to the fear of LyLo, even though he would know that whether he's town telling the truth, or scum making stuff up, that there isn't going to be any quick hammer had he voted. I didn't even have to think about it after don gave his fake results. I knew I could vote without there being any scum quickhammer because I know don is scum.

Then after being questioned by goat, don gives this response:
don wrote:i don't know rhinox' partner. discussion would help.
also, i need to be protown.
wifomic, but true. it appears to be my word against his as i thought it would be.
Notice the bolded... its as if he's incinuating I'm not pro-town because I voted... For 1, Its just BS that you're trying to figure out my partner... you'd learn more about who jumped to vote me/didn't vote me if I was really scum then you would spending days deliberating and coming to a town consensus before voting, because consensus means you take all the personal responsibility out of the votes they don't really count towards tomorrows analysis. Discussion on who my partner is today is pointless because a) I'm not scum, and b) if I were, I wouldn't give up my scum partner and would probably make it harder to figure out through distancing.

In the event I'm not lynched today and don is, I'll definately be nked. Whoever left is town, don't give goat a pass just based on the innocent result. Since don is lying about me, scum were probably gambling on a townie voting me so they could quick hammer me. That would require both scum to be around checking the thread regularly, and don and goat are both here while spring and spolium haven't posted yet. Goat is also playing wishy washy about it, tending to believe don, but sitting on the fence about it and playing both sides in case you guys believe me, so he can bus and still look good tomorrow piggybacking on the innocent result I have on him. If don gets lynched, spring should protect/block goat, and hope there is a no-kill. I wouldn't recommend protect/blocking me, as it would open spring up to being the nk if the scum thinks spring would protect me.

^^I'm not saying I'm sure about goat, just that so far today his and don's interactions are giving me bad vibes. Doesn't mean that he's not just being cautious, and spring or spolium are sitting back stalking the thread waiting to see what happens.

*checking post histories*

Spolium hasn't posted anywhere since friday, so that rules him out as scum IMO. Spring has posted even this morning, but spring's role is more confirmed, IMO. scum-spring would really fuck with my head though. If I had to bet right now, I'd say goat is probably second scum.

Thats about all I can offer. This will probably be my last significant post, unless you guys have any direct questions for me. If you think you're going to vote me, and this post hasn't changed your mind, then nothing I can say will. I'm not just going to keep repeating things I've already said and wasting my time and yours if I'm just going to be lynched anyways. So just do what you're gonna do. I'll answer questions, but there's nothing left for me to say here. Lynch me and we'll talk about it in endgame, or lynch don, have a nice LyLo tomorrow, and I still won't see you til endgame.
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Post Post #1256 (isolation #67) » Mon May 04, 2009 4:47 am

Post by Rhinox »

Don wrote:dj has been in this position before(lylo as questionable townie). not sure why you peg me as "insinuating" anything with my statements.
i need to be pro town
because if i am lynched and this is in fact lylo, then scum wins. if there are two scum, then a quicklynch is a possibility. have you never seen scum self-hammer?
This is all BS. Again, there is nothing pro-town about waiting to place your vote in this instance, and you are suggesting that it would be anti-town to vote.
Don wrote:funny, you misread your role pm. according to you, misunderstanding one's role was so unbelievable earlier in the thread that it was a lynchable offense. oh, the irony.
Look scum, theres a big difference between how you misunderstood your role and my misread. I hope the town can realize that. You took a perfectly clear role PM (IMO, based on your paraphrase) that anybody else would have understood perfectly and claimed to not understand it so you could explain not watching SL N1. I was given information and interpretted it the way anybody else would have -
activated
deputy given cop results after cop death equals backup cop.
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Post Post #1258 (isolation #68) » Mon May 04, 2009 6:21 am

Post by Rhinox »

Don wrote:i misunderstood the role, not the pm. not sure why you keep pushing that story. besides, i thought you were "gambitting"? also, please account for your "misinterpretation" of the results which were a major factor in contributing to the sekinj lynch.
The point is, the way you paraphrased your PM, there is no way in hell you should have misunderstood your role. your role is the PM and vice versa. Quit arguing pointless semantics.

I was gambitting, but I sort of forced my hand by thinking and claiming that I was a deputy turned cop, and not realizing I wasn't actually a cop until after I claimed.

There was no misinterpretations of the results, I don't know where you are getting that from. I was told all 3 of lynx's choices were "not guilty". Sekinj claimed her result of her lynx investigation was "innocent". I thought that was a contradiction that proved she was lying. Now, I'm inclined to believe that the differing results might point to different sanities (i.e. sekinj would have been naive, thinking everyone was innocent), or tony decide to report results using different words to prevent this type of gaming the mod.
Don wrote:wiki wrote:
A Deputy is a role that begins as a Vanilla Townie with no knowledge of their special role. Once the Cop has 'died', the Deputy will be notified and can choose to 'retrieve' the results of that Cop's investigations. If there is more than one Cop, the deputy usually can only get the results of one of the Cop's investigations, so they must choose wisely.


^^ doesn't say anything about being "cop". were you asked if you wanted to "retrieve" the results, or did the mod just send them along?
TBH, I've never heard of that role before this game. I've heard mentioned deputies and backup cops, and I'm the idiot for assuming they were one in the same, and assumed they worked such that when a cop died, the deputy took their place.

I wasn't asked if I wanted to retrieve any results, they were given in the same PM I was told I was a deputy. Maybe I was supposed to get the results of only the first cop death, or maybe thats a clue that lynx was the sane doc, and tony was being nice and not having the deputy have to decide who was the sane cop and who was the insane cop. Knowing that deputies are usually given the option to retrieve now actually makes me think I would have been more confident in lynching sekinj, as it would have made me think lynx was the ONLY cop and sekinj was lying. :shrug:

I have to hand it to you don, you got the drop on me and I'm in an indefensible position. I'm even convinced that your attack on me right now is genuine. Isn't there a scum role similar to a framer where scum can make it look like someone targeted someone else? That would definately make sense in this game for scum to have against 2 watchers and a tracker. Because I didn't actually target ice. Thing is, if we're both town, you'd already be hammered unless there is only 1 scum left (or unless scum-spolium is sleeping).
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Post Post #1260 (isolation #69) » Mon May 04, 2009 7:35 am

Post by Rhinox »

don wrote:i'd heard of the role before. i read the pm upon recieving it. i misunderstood the "scope" of possible results. i will not pursue this farther because i think it is a lie, but if you want to apply this argument to me, please realize the hypocrisy of not applying it to yourself.
I will submit that I was ignorant to what the deputy role actually was, but I will not outright admit to any hypocrisy. I think the situations are different.
don wrote:^^ this had occurred to me. though i hadn't heard the term "framer" until recently, i believe there is a role termed "busdriver" and i am not sure if that would fit the townrhinox scenario. you said yourself that spolium hasn't posted since friday, so maybe you should remove your vote if you are reconsidering your position.
unvote
until spolium checks in, and we get definative opinions from him, spring, and goat.
don wrote:regardless, i think it is pointless for you and i to go back and forth. i have to make a decision based on the info i have at hand, and it is hard to envision a scenario with townrhinox, but i am becoming suspicious of the fact that we seem to be the only ones talking. we need more input. i am going to read up on some roles to see if it is plausible that you have been set up, but as of right now i don't know of any "watcher-immune" roles.
Agreed that the back and forth isn't going to acomplish anything.
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Post Post #1267 (isolation #70) » Tue May 05, 2009 1:27 am

Post by Rhinox »

@spring: you're good, but you only got it almost right.


I'm an sk. If you lynch me today, you're handing the game to the scum.

I believe the setup is currently 2 townie + 2 mafia + sk.

I tried to kill spolium N1 and failed. After that, I didn't kill until last night due to being paranoid about all the tracking/watching roles that were coming out. Last night, I thought it would be safe to kill ice because I hoped don would watch me (I was buddying up to him hard yesterday, and the cop claim thing) leaving no one else to see me kill ice (bigger threat than don, or so I thought). I made up the deputy claim, and made up the innocent on goat. He could very well be scum.

Town has to lynch scum today and hope I can cross kill if the town wants any chance of winning. If I kill scum tonight after a scum lynch today, town can lynch me for the win.

I still think don could be a mafia watcher. I think spring is town. If you guys don't want to lynch don today, then my vote is between goat and spolium. 1 or both of them are scum.

Thoughts?
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Post Post #1269 (isolation #71) » Tue May 05, 2009 3:21 am

Post by Rhinox »

don wrote:why did you hope i would watch you last night? you wanted to be outed as scum?
Getting your role mixed up again?? How would you watching me out me as scum? you're not a cop...
don wrote:looking back, i do notice the lack of flavor for nightkills. i think it is a convenient coincidence for you. also, i don't see why you would target spolium night 1. any particular reason? there were players much more townie than he.
since when do sk's need a reason to target anyone? I'm not a vig. I generally target players for nk's who are unexpected choice. Want me to link you to my comment last week in the MD thread? Hang on...

Who do you kill, the lurker or the obv. town?
Rhinox wrote:I need a neither option. I tend to seek out the unexpected choices, and then laugh hysterically as the town tries to determine why on earth scum would ever kill THAT player! :lol:

The experienced, obv-protown player will probably be doc protected/watched/etc. anyways.
don wrote:this is getting all types of convoluted. i am going with the sure thing, this discussion doesn't seem to be beneficial. i have to operate on the idea that rhinox is scum with either goat or spolium, which is the scenario that makes the most sense.

vote: rhinox i regret being in the position i am in now, but i feel like i've done my best. i don't believe we have an sk. rhinox has done a decent job of distancing himself from everyone so i think we should proceed to night and see what happens.
really? you as town would lynch an sk in this situation and hand the game to the scum? Funny, now all of a sudden, discussion isn't beneficial and you want to vote. What happened to being pro-town? If I am scum with goat or spolium, wouldn't it be better for the town to decide between them in case I really am an sk?

Don is seriously scum. Town should lynch him if they want the best chance to win. Alternatively, its 50/50 between goat and spolium, regardless of whetever don or I are. Spring is the only sure town, IMO and should be her decision. As a claimed SK, i've already lost at this point. I'd rather see town win, but it honestly doesn't matter to me. Lynch me, town loses. Don't lynch me, town has a chance.
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Post Post #1270 (isolation #72) » Tue May 05, 2009 3:43 am

Post by Rhinox »

And for the mathematically inclined...

The mathematical odds of the town losing by randomly choosing between me and don is 58.3% (only 41.7% chance of a lynch that does not end the game) if you assume the odds of me being town/sk/mafia are 33/33/33, and the odds of don being town/mafia are 50/50.

There is a mathematical 50/50 chance of a desireable outcome by selecting between goat and spolium, assuming that spring is 100% town (which I feel comfortable doing).

So, mathematically, its better to pick between spolium and goat. (although, subjectively, don is obv-mafia).
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Post Post #1272 (isolation #73) » Tue May 05, 2009 4:23 am

Post by Rhinox »

don_johnson wrote:
Rhinox wrote:
don wrote:why did you hope i would watch you last night? you wanted to be outed as scum?
Getting your role mixed up again?? How would you watching me out me as scum? you're not a cop...
because you killed ice. were you hoping someone else would target ice as well?
If you watched me, you wouldn't see me target ice... because you're a watcher, and not a tracker. Whats so hard to comprehend about that?
don wrote:imo sk needs game balance to win. if scum is lynched on day 1 it makes more sense for sk to look for obvtown. but i'll humor you.
Isn't this just WIFOM. Some players would lynch you the second you tried to reason who an sk would or should kill.

Besides, sk doesn't need balance, sk needs to eliminate scum as quickly as possible to win. And trying to eliminate scum sets up a vig fake claim, while killing pro-town players makes it obvious there's an sk, not a vig.
don wrote:so why adjust your meta for the ice kill?
I'm an sk, and I was frozen due to the watchers. Statistically, with two watchers, targetting anyone else would likely get me seen. It was either eliminate one of the watchers, or continue no killing and an sk without killing isn't much of an sk. I've played with ice (OGML) before and he seemed more of a threat to me than you at the time.
don wrote:no. i would lynch the scum who is most likely fakeclaiming sk.
First, you thought I would quicklynch myself to cut off town discussion... now you think I would claim sk as mafia to prevent my own lynch and draw suspicion on my scum partner, increasing the chance that he's lynched? not likely...
don wrote:you are not sk. it doesn't fit for me. sorry, but eventually townies have to make decisions and go with them. if one of goat or spolium is not scum and town chooses wrong then town loses. you are asking me to abandon the evidence i have in my hands. i am not going to vote on speculation during a possible lylo. evidence points to you being more likely scum than sk.
No, its clear you would like to lynch the sk because you are mafia.

The only "facts" you have are that I targetted ice, and that doesn't prove either way whether I'm mafia or sk. I sure hope the townies can see right through you as I do.
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Post Post #1275 (isolation #74) » Tue May 05, 2009 6:47 am

Post by Rhinox »

I like it that you're arguing with about about the proper way to play sk. gives me a chuckle.
don wrote:another thing: you didn't target spolium night 1. you weren't even in this game. you failed to mention that it was your predecessor who sent in the night 1 kill and you are trying to justify your choice. it was obviously not your choice. please explain.
I was hoping nobody would catch that... kinda hard to justify being an sk when I'm not an sk.

Gambit #2 was claiming to be an sk... thought it would prevent my lynch and town loss. I'm not an sk, and its clear don knows that because mafia killed ice last night, and he's mafia.

I am a deputy, and I did receive lynx's results automatically. I didn't kill ice - I didn't target anyone all game.

And for the record, the best way to play sk is to try to kill scum, and claim vig if you have to. All that talk about balance is nonsense. Leaving mafia alive as an sk means you're susceptible to being nked by mafia, unless you're UNK (only time I was sk, I was able to be nked.)



Here's my final play. I would like goat to vote me to L-1. I think Goat and don are the scum. When I'm at L-1, its choice time for spring and spolium. Obviously if either of you are scum you'll autohammer me. If you're town, last chance to consider the happenings of the last page.

Since I know I'm town, if neither spring or spolium autohammer me, that will confirm to me that goat and don are scum.

Now 'nuff talkin. Goat should vote me to L-1. If there is no autohammer, I'll answer whatever questions spring and spolium have to help them decide whether they want to hammer me or believe me to lynch don and goat. I really have no other options, and there is nothing left to say.
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Post Post #1284 (isolation #75) » Wed May 06, 2009 1:36 am

Post by Rhinox »

goat wrote:There is no way Rhinox as town suggests this play right here. If he's town, he risks a town loss based on his idea that I'm scum. However, as scum, he knows he won't be hammered, because he's scum. So, by having Don and myself vote him, and then by showing he wasn't hammered, he's trying to make a fallacious argument that he's town by nature of having 2 votes on him and not being hammered. Nice try.
spring wrote:Rhinox, as much as I'd like to command you for being fun, the chance of you being town=0.
I'm sorry my plays didn't work out, but with don, goat, and spolium willing to lynch me, and spring ok with a coin flip, as town I'm willing to try anything to stop my own lynch in this situation.

The sk claim might have worked except I was trying to be too convincing and forgot when I replaced in. The goal was to trap don in his own fake results. The only reason he knew I wasn't an sk is because he knows scum took out ice, and he didn't watch me kill ice at all. Otherwise, I think any town player would accept my explanation. I didn't expect that don might argue that I was mafia faking sk to prevent my own lynch, even if I don't think it likely and I still stand by my belief that scum in my position would just sit quietly, accept the lynch and wish best of luck to his scum partner for tomorrow. I don't think its WIFOM because I think its horrible scum play to intentionally try to extend the day and possibly make it so my scum partner would be figured out.

Anyways, the goal was to hopefully lynch scum today between goat and spolium, force don to nk me in case I really was an sk who just also happened to target ice, and then when I was revealed as a townie, don's lie would be revealed and town could lynch him. I realized it would fail if don saw anything as a mafia watcher that contradicted with my story (such as actually watching ice and seeing I did not target him), or if he didn't nk me in case I was UNK.

Regarding my lastedst plan, I realize its full of holes, but there is nothing left I can do. Do any of you have any better ideas of what town should do in my position? Many other players would have given up by now.

Specifically regarding the plan, its intentions are not to "prove" I am town. And anyways, I've changed my mind. If don is leaning towards goat being scum, then I'm more convinced spolium is scum. Because I know don is scum, or at least got inaccurate results regarding last night's watch. But if no one else is willing to humor the idea of some sort of framining role, then the only other answer is Don is lying scum.

Regarding claiming sk, I was originally going to try something else, namely claiming mafia, saying spring was right, and echo the request for the other mafia team to claim. But, it was obvious to me that wouldn't work because Don, Budja, and whoever are probably a team of 3, would know I didn't kill ice, and I'd just get lynched anyways for claiming mafia.

The only thing that worries me now is spring talking about 2 scum teams. Spring, how is it that you see that a likely scenario? If there are 2 scum teams, knowing I'm town, then almost certainly spring is scum trying to get the other scum team to reveal. And honestly, if there wasn't 1 dead scum sitting out there, I might even believe I'm the only townie left alive.
spring wrote:Why? Beyond the whole claiming scum thing, there is the beautiful fact that you claimed to be deputy with innocent on Goat, then went on to say that that he was scum with Don in the next breath without so much as an afterthought.
The afterthought is burried in my posts... Going back to before RC's lynch, spolium was the one who supported my case on don and pushed it a little. It's possible he was bussing, but it seemed genuine to me. I guess if I could go back, I'd have stuck to my guns about do before and refused to vote RC. I was just worried if I was wrong then, I almost certainly would have been lynched next for forcing the mislynch of a townie. Although, Rc probably would have been able to claim the next day.

So anyways, thats why I don't think spolium is scum. Because I know don is scum, and spolium was helping me and willing to vote for don if I refused to vote for RC. I realize there is an innocent on Goat, but I think Goat has been too willing to call himself cleared by it. I remember one post he said he didn't think I was scum because scum wouldn't want to clear a town player. So obviously, if goat is scum, he's a godfather, or lynx was naive. I think Mafia RB+watcher+GF complements all the town roles nicely. Me knowing Don is indeed a mafia watcher, and a RB already lynched, what other scum role makes sense? Possibly the framer type role I was speculating about, in which case don might really be town, but no one has ever heard of the role I'm thinking about or consider it a possibility. So, that leaves... a GF.

But considering Don is leaning goat, and taking WIFOM into consideration, I'd rather see don lynched today, and then decide between goat and spolium tomorrow.

OH, and by the way... Are you guys forgetting that there is an innocent on me too? If you're putting that much weight on the innocent on goat, maybe you should at least consider that the innocent on me might mean, you know, that I'm innocent. And lynx claimed innocent on me before he died, so you have to know its real even if you think I'm making up the innocent on goat.


(colored for emphasis)


And if it comes down to a coin flip, we should definately use the dice tags.

I just really hope tony is enjoying his game... I bet he feels like a mean kid with a magnifying glass, and we're the ants :P
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Post Post #1287 (isolation #76) » Wed May 06, 2009 4:14 am

Post by Rhinox »

spolium wrote:As I said, Rhinox is looking like the best choice, and he's sort of flapping all over the place (I'm deputy cop/special deputy cop/sk/I'm town, don't forget the inno result on me/etc). It doesn't sound like he's trying to do what's best for town so much as save his own skin.
:lol:

Saving my own skin IS whats best for the town in this situation. Now you're the one trying to apply the Textbook self defense tell in a situation where it doesn't apply.

I guess now I'll find out if I'm right about don and goat, although spols last post makes me think he's actually don's partner.
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Post Post #1289 (isolation #77) » Wed May 06, 2009 4:39 am

Post by Rhinox »

After I had explained my first gambit and done everything I could to convince the town that don was lying, You, don, and goat were all willing to vote me, and the only player I believe is town (spring) didn't seem to care and suggested a coin flip. As there was nothing else I could possibly say at that point, I was willing to try anything extreme to prevent my lynch, including something as outrageous as claiming sk (which, if you really look at it, is no different than claiming town when deciding whether or not to lynch me, considering that I could have been mafia lying about being an sk).

Saving my own skin for the sake of saving my own skin? thats just rediculous. If I were mafia, I'd have no reason to be so adamantly opposed to my own lynch. I'd accept the quicklynch and hope my mafia partner would be convincing enough tomorrow to not get lynched. It would definately make it easier on him to just shut up and accept the lynch. The only reason I'm so adamantly against my lynch is because being town, my lynch will certainly end the game with a mafia victory.

I'd even accept springs coin flip suggestion, because a 50% chance of not getting lynched seems better than I have been doing by trying to be persuasive.
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Post Post #1291 (isolation #78) » Wed May 06, 2009 7:44 am

Post by Rhinox »

goat wrote:My opinion didn't change between the vote and the unvote. Rhinox is scum. I just wanted to hold off and give a chance for the rest of the game to come to a conclusion before pushing to lynch him.
Hai scum. Way to slip that the game will end with my lynch.
goat wrote:It's fairly obvious he's scum. I highly doubt there are multiple scum groups. There is literally no evidence to suggest that is the case. And even if there are multiple scum groups, I'd rather take the sure scum lynch in Rhinox rather than a shot in the dark.
:lol:

gg scum. Here comes the DJ Hammer...
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Post Post #1293 (isolation #79) » Wed May 06, 2009 7:52 am

Post by Rhinox »

Goatrevolt wrote:
Rhinox wrote:
goat wrote:My opinion didn't change between the vote and the unvote. Rhinox is scum. I just wanted to hold off and
give a chance for the rest of the
game
to come to a conclusion
before pushing to lynch him.
Hai scum. Way to slip that the game will end with my lynch.
How is that a slip in any way? More BS?
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Post Post #1295 (isolation #80) » Wed May 06, 2009 8:08 am

Post by Rhinox »

Whats obvious is that as soon as DJ shows up and hammers me, you guys can give me your honest opinions about what a townie was supposed to do in my position today.

By the way, that reminds me. You never did answer my question in game context. Assume for a moment I'm actually town, though you think I'm scum. Is there anything I could have done after don's fake results and 3 out of 4 players were ready to lynch me that would have prevented my lynch?
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Mafia Scum
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Post Post #1301 (isolation #81) » Wed May 06, 2009 2:49 pm

Post by Rhinox »

If it means what I think it means, then spring is don's scum partner?

If thats truly the case, I don't mind as much because I would have NEVER voted for spring, even if don would have been lynched today.

Can't wait to see how all the roles really went together.

And as I said a couple posts ago, gg scum. You deserve it.
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Rhinox
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Post Post #1324 (isolation #82) » Thu May 07, 2009 1:00 am

Post by Rhinox »

argh! :P I hate being right and not being able to do anything about it.
spolium wrote:If Rhinox hadn't gone through that whole SK claim thing, I'd most likely have settled on don. I'm kicking myself for not pushing what we had on him earlier.
double argh! the only reason I tried the sk gambit is because I thought you and spring were both town, and spring wanted to coinflip and you were leaning towards lynching me after I basically said everything I could. The sk thing might have worked, except don was really on top of everything this game. Goat you were great too, but don really played pretty spectacularly.

I think once don comes out with the guilty on me, I can harp on the major points all I want, but pretty sure I'd have been lynched eventually anyways, due to don being a confirmed watcher by both RC and ice. But what I regret more is not pushing harder on don before RC's lynch. Sorry bout that RC, I really felt bad about lynching you. I didn't think you were scum (I really didn't think spolium was scum either though).

On a side note, this is only the second time I've been lynched, and both times were in LyLo :-? :P

Tony, nice modding, and I didn't see too many problems with the setup really. With so many power roles in a closed setup, any town is going to be worried about the PR claims lying and forget to actually scum hunt, like we did for a while :P. You run this same game as an open setup though, and I guarentee the town wins every time.
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Post Post #1326 (isolation #83) » Thu May 07, 2009 1:22 am

Post by Rhinox »

"And I didn't feel I could hold back the night for replacements once i found out they were gone, as it would be obvious they were holding the night back."

Well that would have been outguessing the mod :P

But I think as long as you make sure every day starts with all active players, and don't extend the night only for certain replacements and it woulda been fine.

Still can't believe... even having a real watcher, we didn't catch scum trying to kill SL...

OK, so maybe if all roles were active N1, town woulda pretty much coasted to victory :P
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Post Post #1336 (isolation #84) » Fri May 08, 2009 7:26 am

Post by Rhinox »

FYI: I have nominated don for the "Best Performance by an Individual (Scum)" Scummie. His play was probably the best I've seen since I joined the site, and I really think he deserves it. Head on over to the Scummies nomination thread to second or third the nomination if you agree.

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