Mini 771 - Mafia in Ludd: Game Over

[Yosarian2]

Scum list:

Ether:60% likely to be scum. Incog, sorry if I misrepresneted you there; but in any case, I've played a lot of games with town-Ether, and Ether's most recent post does NOT look like town-Ether. Incognito, I'd be interested to hear your opinion about that, since I know you have had a lot of experence with her meta as well. Just take a look at this post again:

Patrick, I worried about you very early on in i10, too, before moving on, even if I didn't say it out loud. There it was more anxiousness for you to post; here your posts on Page 1 actually bugged me a bit. I twitched at your apathetic acknowledgement of my Incogvote, and again at that vagueness with Skitzer in your 20. Yeah, I dismissed it, but it was there.

I'mma

unvote; vote: Yosarian2

. Filtering his posts, there's just not a lot there. And I hate the claim. (I don't think Incognito is scum. The Patrick/Yosarian connection is too blatant for my tastes as well.)

Having said that, I would

still

like Izzy's and Xdaamno's top threes, and I am

still

eagerly awaiting Korts's catchup post.

Bandwagony. Note she dosn't vote me specifically for the miller claim, she dosn't even mention it; she comes up with another, quite weak IMHO, reason to vote me. When Ether's town, she can usually spot town-Yos a mile away; this kind of weak bandwagony stuff really does not feel to me like Ether's normal town play. What do you think, Incog?

OGML: 50%. I could see him acting like this as town, but I could more easily see him as scum acting like this; as scum, OGML tends to be very direct in going directly for what he wants, in bandwagoning agressivly, and such; my scum meta on him is he's the kind of guy who, when he's a godfather in a vengeful, he ALWAYS hammers.

Xdaamno: 35-40% or so. A little more likely then random to be scum, based on some early game vibes; nothing solid.

=======================

Page 10 Votecount

camn (0/7):
charter (0/7):
DizzyIzzyB13 (1/7): Incognito,
Ether (1/7): Yosarian2
Green Crayons (0/7):
Incognito (0/7):
Korts (0/7):
OhGodMyLife (0/7):
Patrick (1/7): Xdaamno
skitzer (0/7):
Xdaamno (2/7): Green Crayons, Patrick
Yosarian2 (4/7): OhGodMyLife, camn, charter, Ether

Not voting (3/12):

skitzer, DizzyIzzyB13, Korts

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

Countdown To Deadline
============================

[Green Crayons]

Yos: In the marathon game you linked to, you claimed miller because you were in a very specific situation: on the following day, the town could be in a LYLO situation. That was the driving force behind your reversal of your February miller strategy, the unique and "dire" situation you found yourself.

How did that single, highly selective/unique scenario change your mind on your general miller strategy? Because it worked once in a marathon game?

[OhGodMyLife]

Yos - are you basing your entire scum meta of me on our games at Beach Bam?

[Yosarian2]

Yos: In the marathon game you linked to, you claimed miller because you were in a very specific situation: on the following day, the town could be in a LYLO situation. That was the driving force behind your reversal of your February miller strategy, the unique and "dire" situation you found yourself.

How did that single, highly selective/unique scenario change your mind on your general miller strategy? Because it worked once in a marathon game?

It worked in the marathon game, plus I believe the meta has shifted, to a point where a miller claiming miller is a much more viable option then it would have been in the 2006 meta, in the game I was talking about in that thread.

Plus, I didn't have this horrible little "best manipulater" paranoia-inducing tag attached to my name back then, so I wasn't anywhere near as likely to draw random cop investigations as I am now.

[Yosarian2]

Yos - are you basing your entire scum meta of me on our games at Beach Bam?

Um...mostly, I suppose; play 50 or so games with someone and you start to know how they tick, I think. Why, do you think your forum scum meta is significantly different then in face to face games? How so?

[OhGodMyLife]

I think we all developed very specific metas after playing 50 or so games with the same five people. Especially playing 50 games of a very specific format which is wholly unlike most forum games. And yes, I think the way I play in person is a lot more fast and loose than the way I play on the forum, so basing your read of me in this game on a meta developed off the forum is not a good method of scumhunting.

Plus, I didn't have this horrible little "best manipulater" paranoia-inducing tag attached to my name back then, so I wasn't anywhere near as likely to draw random cop investigations as I am now.

I can see this argument being made in a game full of inexperienced players, but nobody in this game is a newbie. Did you really think it was likely that you would draw a "random" investigation in this game?

Personally I give all the players here more credit than that.

[Yosarian2]

I do not like this miller claim one bit. Yos is a skilled enough player to be able to avoid suspicion if he wants to, without needing to claim at this point. It makes no sense to me.

There is absolutly no way to avoid random paranoia, izzy. If you don't believe me, look and see how many times I've gotten mislynched or vigged as town recently...

Yeah, I agree with GC. I don't think Yos truly believes there is "absolutely no difference" between claiming now and claiming earlier, or even claiming later today. Your insistence that this would be a stupid scum move also seems a little off, because of the WIFOM.

Do you disagree with me that the odds of me being lynched now are WAY higher then they would have been if I hadn't claimed miller?

WIFOM it back and fourth as much as you want, it would be an idiotic move.

Plus, Yosarian thinking "I have played 100s of games, yawn.... I wonder if I can pull this off? If I can, then I win, and = legend."

And...no. I take mafia way too seriously for that. Every game I play, I play to win.

[Xdaamno]

Yeah, I agree with GC. I don't think Yos truly believes there is "absolutely no difference" between claiming now and claiming earlier, or even claiming later today. Your insistence that this would be a stupid scum move also seems a little off, because of the WIFOM.

Do you disagree with me that the odds of me being lynched now are WAY higher then they would have been if I hadn't claimed miller?

WIFOM it back and fourth as much as you want, it would be an idiotic move.

Plus, Yosarian thinking "I have played 100s of games, yawn.... I wonder if I can pull this off? If I can, then I win, and = legend."

And...no. I take mafia way too seriously for that. Every game I play, I play to win.

Maybe WIFOM isn't a great way of describing the situation. I just found it odd that you said it would be silly for scum to claim miller, while at the same time claiming the act of claiming miller is a town tell. It's not some kind of logical fallacy or contradiction, it was just odd. That wasn't my main point in any case.

[Yosarian2]

I think we all developed very specific metas after playing 50 or so games with the same five people. Especially playing 50 games of a very specific format which is wholly unlike most forum games. And yes, I think the way I play in person is a lot more fast and loose than the way I play on the forum, so basing your read of me in this game on a meta developed off the forum is not a good method of scumhunting.

(shrug) Well, we're only 10 pages into day 1, and as I said, I'm still kind of 50/50 on you so far. Still, the tone of your posts, the agressivness, the...well, the taking advantage of a sudden oppertunity, I suppose, are about what I would normally expect from you as scum. From most people, I would take leading a bandwagon to generally be a town tell, but not from you; I'd expect you to do that as often as scum as when you're town. Am I wrong to think that?

Plus, I didn't have this horrible little "best manipulater" paranoia-inducing tag attached to my name back then, so I wasn't anywhere near as likely to draw random cop investigations as I am now.

I can see this argument being made in a game full of inexperienced players, but nobody in this game is a newbie. Did you really think it was likely that you would draw a "random" investigation in this game?

Reasonably likely, sure.

Anyway, you realize you are contradicting yourself here, right? Your case against me was:

Yosarian2 as scum - *gets paranoid about how often he draws investigations on a regular basis, combined with what even he could probably tell was sub par play, and a higher than average player caliber surrounding him, decides claiming miller and banking on the WIFOM-o-licious why would Yosarian2 scum claim miller reaction to get him out of a lynch.*

Your whole case against me is your theory that I, as scum, was worried about "how often I draw investigations." So now you're trying to claim that I, as town, wouldn't be worried that I might have a higher then average chance of drawing an investigation? Which one is it; do you think I'm more likely to draw a cop investigation then a random person, or not?

[OhGodMyLife]

Hi-ho straw man. See the line "combined with what he could probably tell was sub par play, and a higher than average player caliber surrounding him" for reasons why I'm not contradicting myself.

I don't like how you're backing me into this weird corner where I have to provide a self-meta either. The question regarding whether I lead wagons or not when I'm scum is very much loaded to make me look bad no matter what I say.

I haven't been scum very often in forum games, but you and others are perfectly capable of reading the games where I was scum and deciding for yourself.

[OhGodMyLife]

And to answer your final question, at the point when you claimed, you were more likely than a random person to draw a cop investigation

based on your play up to that point

. You also very clearly demonstrate that

you

believe, even apart from your play in the game, that given a random investigation you are a likely target. So a pre-emptive miller claim makes plenty of sense as scum.

[Yosarian2]

Hi-ho straw man. See the line "combined with what he could probably tell was sub par play, and a higher than average player caliber surrounding him" for reasons why I'm not contradicting myself.

You still are, though, since I'm surrounded by the same high caliber of players in both cases, and you're talking about this game both times. Either I'm "paranoid" that I'm especally likely to get investigated in this game, with these players, or I'm not. You can't have it both ways.

I don't like how you're backing me into this weird corner where I have to provide a self-meta either. The question regarding whether I lead wagons or not when I'm scum is very much loaded to make me look bad no matter what I say.

Hey, you backed yourself into the corner.

I, as part of my scumhunting, stated my opinion on you, which is largely based on my meta on you. You seemed to dispute my meta on you in a fuzzy kind of way, so I'm asking you streight out if you think my meta on you is accurate or not.

If it is, that dosn't necessarally mean you're scum, since I'm sure you lead bad wagons as town as well as when you're scum. And if it's not, I'd be interested to know that. Either way, it's certanly not an unreasonable question.

I haven't been scum very often in forum games, but you and others are perfectly capable of reading the games where I was scum and deciding for yourself.

So, you're simply not going to answer the question? Interesting.

[Yosarian2]

And to answer your final question, at the point when you claimed, you were more likely than a random person to draw a cop investigation

based on your play up to that point

.

Pshaw. There was nothing wrong with my play up to that point, and you know it.

You also very clearly demonstrate that

you

believe, even apart from your play in the game, that given a random investigation you are a likely target. So a pre-emptive miller claim makes plenty of sense as scum.

If I believe that given a random investigation I am a likely target, then a pre-emptive miller claim makes pleanty of sense when I actually am a pro-town miller, does it not?

[OhGodMyLife]

Oh please, I already demonstrated how your play before your miller claim was scummy in a charming and satirical manner.

I didn't imply your meta was fuzzy, I implied it was invalid. Therefore, if you want a meta based on forum play, you can go find it yourself, rather than asking me to verify whether or not I lead wagons as scum, as I'm leading a wagon against you.

[skitzer]

GC in Post 173: Oops. So that was pretty much a mental lapse/laziness episode. But I think my underlying point was that someone made and explained a vote on Patrick, and unexplained votes followed. Basically, this is beginning to resemble a hoppable bandwagon (not sure "hoppable" is the correct malapropism...

Patrick in Post 174: So it sounds like Xdaamno started that bandwagon on you, and then you voted him and now unvoted him. It looks like OMGUS followed by quick removal; however, I do not feel that is what you meant.
On the cases, I guess I didn't ever come out and truly say that I don't like Dizzy's case because it appears unlogical to me. The other two, Xdaamno's and yours, I haven't fully looked at yet but I'm sure they will be inspected soon. For suspicions, Incognito's attack of Dizzy which started the whole case is probably my biggest suspicion.

camn in Post 175: First part: OK, whatever. Second part: the paragraph above had questions for you that also pertained to someone else. Third part: You said something about you once again being suspicious of charter. Fourth: It's not likely, but incredibly stupid or incredibly smart scum would do it. It's WIFOM now.

OGML in Post 177: Am I correct in saying that you thought of this because camn's post pertained to scum dropping the atom bomb-thingies? I can agree here.

Yosarian2 in Post 178: I almost interpreted your earlier claim post as a joke. Something seems entirely fishy about this.

OGML in Post 179: I agree with your miller strategy here.

camn in Post 182: I don't like the "let's see how you get out of this". It just seems like you could be scum watching a townsperson flounder. And I'm a meta-hater, so no points there.

camn in Post 184: Agree with this too. Either post it first thing or crumb it ASAP. Otherwise, it looks faulty and no one's going to believe you.

charter in Post 185: As mentioned earlier: Incognito's attacks of Dizzy I don't lke, but the claim by Yos2 has him jumping all over my scum list. Let's average it together and say he's tied with Incog for now.

Incognito in Post 204: I don't think she stated that prior to 86. And if she doesn't ask questions, that could be a problem. I'll have to see what success she has in the first day with this style, and then goe from there.

Yosarian in Post 225: Your percentage on OGML is 50%, which I think is kind of that icky fence-sitting/kissy-kissy to the person who started this case on you.

[OhGodMyLife]

Here I'll make it easy for you and any other interested parties. Every completed game where I've been scum.

Newbie 507
Mini 549
Open 76
Mini 633
Open 87

[Yosarian2]

:eyebrow: You mean you actually meant that silly play seriously? Do I really have to go through and list in detail how every single thing you said was a completly absurd misrepresentation of my posts? Ok, fine.

Yos: Meh, I say. Meh! Also, vote X

Translation to reality: Yos analyzes the two main issues going on in thread at the point, decides neither argument is convincing and explains that pretty clearly, so Yos scumhunts elsewhere.

Yos: Random? Why of course not.

Well, yeah. I still don't really get how anyone would assume I would make a whole big post with analysis and stuff and then end it with a random vote...

Yos: While I'm at it, let me defend my use of the word meh. It was not wishy washy. It just means I am not making any definitive statements about the alignments of any players involved in any debates so far.

Oh, thats what wishy washy is? Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

Funny, but completly and totally inaccurate.

Yos: Ummm... everyone had posted already, so my standard random vote would not apply. *Cough* Let me just reiterate that I still haven't found anything to comment on in the ongoing debates between other players. But X's only post so far was like totally not townly. Srsly.

Come on, man, if you're trying to be funny actually quote the silly post I made; it was a lot funnier then that, and not nearly so serious.

Anyway, reading the first 2 pages of the game, Xdaamno's single post *was* scummier then the net contrabutions of any other single player. Do you disagree?

Yos: Also, I will now give a reason for why my reads on Patrick can't be trusted and therefore I probably will never meaningfully comment on Patrick's alignment.

Right, right, jokes are scummy, I forgot.

In the joking post you misquoted just above, I made a joke about how I was going to vote for Patrick except I couldn't because he ozzed pro-town-ness. I then had to actually explain that, yes, this was a joke, based on the fact Patrick always looks pro-town to me. Now you're attacking me for having to explain my joke? Sheesh.

By the way, "my gut usually gives me a pro-town read on Patrick" does NOT mean "I won't be able to figure out Patrick's alignment or get a real read on him", by ANY streach of the imagination.

Let me just stop again here; did you really mean this as a serious attack on me, OGML?

Yos: Not on the fence. But while I'm at it, let me also make excuses for why my reads on charter are probably not going to ever be valid either.

ANd here I have absolutly no idea what the hell you're talking about.

Others: More questions about meh.
Yos: Defend, defend, defend about my mehs.

Blah, blah.

Yos: I'll just fan the argument flames from the sidelines.

Complete and total lie, since I actually said that they both looked town, which is the exact opposite of what you're claiming I did. We've moved waaayy beyond simple misrepresentation here...

Yos: I'll just rehash statements about not reading Patrick. And question why anyone would think he is scum
Yos: Ah, the perfect moment to finally make some comment about something going on around me. I'll begin by joining the growing chorus of people who find Green Crayons to be strikingly town. And devilishly handsome. I'll follow that up with a quick buddy up to camn, because you can never have too many friends. Finally I'll throw in some unsolicited support for Ether v. Xdaamno with a boxing metaphor just to make sure that keeps going while I sit over here comfortably on the sidelines. To finish, let me just tell Xdaamno that we most certainly have enough information now to better-than-random vote someone (so you should probably get off Patrick already). Don't mind that my vote hasn't moved since my barely better than random initial vote for you.

Lol. Mock me if you want, but if you have an actual problem with my post, you're going to have to say what part of it you disagree with.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian in Post 225: Your percentage on OGML is 50%, which I think is kind of that icky fence-sitting/kissy-kissy to the person who started this case on you.

Are you kidding me? You think "50% scum" is "fense sitting" or "kissy face"??

Dude, if you get as high as a 50% chance someone is scum 10 pages into day 1, it usually means "LYNCH THAT PERSON INSTANTLY", since town generally does FAR worse then be right 50% of the time on day 1. Only reason I'm not voting him is Ether is even scummier.

[skitzer]

Hmm...I think we were interpretting differently here.

I was speaking much more on an individual basis, where 50/50 is like uncertainty. You, on the other hand, seem to speaking more towards a group perspective (although your percentages wouldn't add up correctly), so if you feel that strongly, then I understand.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm...I think we were interpretting differently here.

I was speaking much more on an individual basis, where 50/50 is like uncertainty. You, on the other hand, seem to speaking more towards a group perspective (although your percentages wouldn't add up correctly), so if you feel that strongly, then I understand.

Well, you don't have to worry about them adding up; those are independent, since there are going to be more then one scum anyway.

But, yeah; sorry if I wasn't clear, but when I said "60% chance Ether is scum, 50% chance OGML is scum, 35-40% chance Xdaamno is scum" that is what I meant; if we lynch Ether, I think we're 60% likely to hit scum. Keep in mind that a random lynch is usually about 25% likely to hit scum in an average game.

[camn]

camn in Post 109: You seem to refuse to believe that charter can be anything but scum. I feel like you are bringing too much of your past with him to this game and not enough of the current.

How exactly does post 109 say to you that I think charter is scum?

camn in Post 175:......Third part: You said something about you once again being suspicious of charter. ....

Where, please?
Here is a link to post 109...
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 52#1595652
Can you find me calling charter scummy here? Or were you making that up?

[Incognito]

Yosarian2, as GC implied, I think the scenario for where you claimed Miller in the Marathon Day game that you linked to was certainly much more warranted than the scenario that we have here. If you really are town here, I think your claim is extremely sloppy and very poorly thought out, and I strongly suggest you shape up your play in a major way otherwise you almost certainly will get mislynched.

It worked in the marathon game, plus I believe the meta has shifted, to a point where a miller claiming miller is a much more viable option then it would have been in the 2006 meta, in the game I was talking about in that thread.

In what way do you believe the meta has shifted specifically? If you're telling the truth about being a miller, I personally think the more appropriate action would have been the one you suggested within the MD thread, so I'm curious as to why you feel otherwise.

Plus, I didn't have this horrible little "best manipulater" paranoia-inducing tag attached to my name back then, so I wasn't anywhere near as likely to draw random cop investigations as I am now.

This seems plausible. I remember you mentioning something in MD about how you get mislynched more often now because of the scummy you received.

As for your Ether-read:

Actually, she

did

comment on your Miller claim:

I'mma

unvote; vote: Yosarian2

. Filtering his posts, there's just not a lot there.

And I hate the claim.

(I don't think Incognito is scum. The Patrick/Yosarian connection is too blatant for my tastes as well.)

In fact, in the post where you actually went ahead and placed your vote on her, you acknowledged this and used it as

reason

to switch your vote to her:

Hmm. Surprising,

Ether was the one person I didn't think would vote for me on a knee jerk reaction just because I'm a miller.

I guess Incog is right; she's probably scum; town Ether generally knows better then this.

Vote:Ether

And now in your most recent post, you use the fact that

she didn't comment on your claim

as one of the reasons to give her a 60% scum read? Which is it exactly: because she used your claim as part of her reason to vote you or because she didn't comment on it? Those two reasons are on completely opposite ends of the spectrum.

Separate post for other stuff as this one's getting long.

[Incognito]

skitzer:

If you want actual replies to stuff, can you please format your posts differently? There's no way I'm going back to each of those posts to see what it is you're talking about just by you giving the post numbers. Unless of course, that's your intention in the first place...

OGML:

My linking to

one

town game where I handled a miller claim in a similar manner to here was enough for you to automatically write me off as town? Why?

camn in Post 112: This may sound weird, but I want to ask for a reason for your unvote. "You rule" just doesn't cut it for me.

GC was, and is, acting INCREDIBLY town. In my experience. . scum don't drop atom bombs on people day 1.

camn, this would be the case with your average, run-of-the-mill scum player, sure. But GC is actually fairly competent as scum (see Mini 692 - Boost Mafia) and could almost certainly drop atom bombs on people even on Day 1. I'd be extremely careful with drinking this type of wine.

[camn]

Don't worry. To me, everyone is scum until the mod tells me otherwise.

But his play is enough for now.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2, as GC implied, I think the scenario for where you claimed Miller in the Marathon Day game that you linked to was certainly much more warranted than the scenario that we have here. If you really are town here, I think your claim is extremely sloppy and very poorly thought out, and I strongly suggest you shape up your play in a major way otherwise you almost certainly will get mislynched.

How is it "sloppy" or "poorly thought out"? I did think it out, and decided before the game started that I would claim miller at some point during day 1.

You are certanly right that the marathon game is a different scenerio; I only quoted it here because you suspected me of lying when I was telling the truth. However, in general, I think this principle applies:

If a miller claims day 1, he is not much less useful to the town then a claimed townie. Of course he can't be investigated, but most of the people in a game can't be investigated anyway, just because the cop usually only has a chance to investigate 3 or so people out of 12.

On the other hand, an unclaimed miller can be a huge liability to the town; day 2 or day 3 or whatever, cop claims with a guilty on me, I claim miller in response to the claim, I get lynched, cop is outed, cop probably gets nightkilled. Result: Almost guarenteed mislynch, wasted cop investigation, cop outed. If I claim day 1, either I get lynched on my own or I don't, there's no other cost to the town.

I don't personally think my claim is "poorly thought out" at all, Incog; it was something that I now think had to be done day 1, as much as I didn't want to. (And yes, my mafia theory on the subject has changed over time.)

It worked in the marathon game, plus I believe the meta has shifted, to a point where a miller claiming miller is a much more viable option then it would have been in the 2006 meta, in the game I was talking about in that thread.

In what way do you believe the meta has shifted specifically? If you're telling the truth about being a miller, I personally think the more appropriate action would have been the one you suggested within the MD thread, so I'm curious as to why you feel otherwise.

See above for why I feel otherwise.

As for your Ether-read:

Actually, she

did

comment on your Miller claim:

I'mma

unvote; vote: Yosarian2

. Filtering his posts, there's just not a lot there.

And I hate the claim.

(I don't think Incognito is scum. The Patrick/Yosarian connection is too blatant for my tastes as well.)

In fact, in the post where you actually went ahead and placed your vote on her, you acknowledged this and used it as

reason

to switch your vote to her:

Hmm. Surprising,

Ether was the one person I didn't think would vote for me on a knee jerk reaction just because I'm a miller.

I guess Incog is right; she's probably scum; town Ether generally knows better then this.

Vote:Ether

And now in your most recent post, you use the fact that

she didn't comment on your claim

as one of the reasons to give her a 60% scum read? Which is it exactly: because she used your claim as part of her reason to vote you or because she didn't comment on it? Those two reasons are on completely opposite ends of the spectrum.

I'll go into this more later; going to have to end this post now, have to go to work in a minute or two. Let me just say that I don't think there's a contradiction there; she joined my wagon, she didn't really talk about the miller claim (other then a vauge "I hate the claim" thing you pointed out) and made some other vauge excuse for joining the wagon. On the other hand, while she didn't really talk about it, of COURSE she joined the wagon on me because of the miller claim; that was the whole point of the wagon on me, that was the event that caused me to be wagoned.

The post really dosn't feel like town-Ether to me. It also looks oppertunistic in a scummy way.