Mini 734 - GrimMafia - OVER

[JereIC]

Vote: Ectomancer

because his avatar looks waaaaaaay too happy.

[JereIC]

Hmm.. half of me wants to random vote again, half of me wants to know what Ectomancer is up to with this:

[quote="Ectomancer]My vote was not random. [/quote]

Coin flip says investigate, so

Vote: Zachrulez

[JereIC]

I thought Ecto had some sort of mad-genius scheme going with his first vote, but now it looks like the only reason he voted for Zach in the beginning was because he took Zach's random vote reason at face value. I'm not really buying the case that scum try to kill the people they've played with before. They may know you better, but you know them as well, so it might be easier to manipulate them.

Unvote

I do want to see how zwet and Nuwen respond to Ecto's argument.

Springlullaby's "call it a day" post was odd and possibly a joke. However, her current vote feels scummy because she implies there's a reason without actually stating it. I also think it's reckless to put a third vote on a person without

anyone

giving a rationale.

Vote: springlullaby

[JereIC]

Unvote

Just realized that was the 4th vote on spring, thought it was the 3rd. i r gud at math.

FOS: Springlullaby, though

[JereIC]

FOS JereIC

Why pussy out of voting me?

What is the difference between being the third and the fourth on a wagon?

I'm not comfortable putting anybody over halfway to a lynch unless I intend to actually lynch them. Right now I just want an explanation. Why are you voting for Ectomancer?

[JereIC]

You see, I define the end of RVS as when the majority of the town are actually making posts of content and true playing. When you say that your vote is not random you can't just assume that everyone else is going to hop on board with you. There are plenty of times that is said in joke random votes.

Thus, in this case, I see the RVS ending on the first post of page 2 because that marks the point where the town as a majority began to give actual reasons for votes. If it ended, as you say, when you posted why did you not call out Zer0ph34r or Beyond_Birthday for random voting in posts 19 and 23 respectively?

He's got a point about Skillit. You can argue whether or not we were out of RVS at post 19 or 23 - by his definition we were, by yours we weren't - but by post 43 it was pretty clear everyone else thought we were into the meat of the game already.

[JereIC]

Anyway, I'm more concerned with JereIC at the moment. I don't get why he was so worried about casting a 4th vote on someone. Lynch -3 really isn't that bad is it?

I don't understand one why he cast the vote in the first place, and two how he didn't realize that springlullaby had 3 votes on her.

Just find it strange.

As I said in my earlier post, I don't like to put people over halfway to a lynch unless I actually intend for them to get lynched. If you've seen speed lynches on page 2, you'll know where my caution is coming from. Counting the votes is simply my screw up - I didn't see Zerophear's vote in post # 19.

Anyway, this line in Sipylus's post is bugging me:

...in terms of wheat to chaff I'm off to a rocking start - along with JereIC, Nuwen, PerArdua and Zachrulez...

I don't understand how you're identifying these people. If it's for the large amount of wheat, then why aren't Beyond_Birthday or Springlullaby included? Why are you, since you said you didn't have any content posts?

[JereIC]

Why, I think speedlynch on page two is the best that could happen to town, yes/no?

What is so detrimental about speedlynch?

Are you kidding? A speedlynch deprives the town of information, which we desperately need on the first page. This is a well known problem - it's even discussed on the (admittedly brief) Speedlynch page on MafiaWiki.

[JereIC]

Now, I am not familiar with the whole terminology of "wheat" in terms of chaff=useless matter, but are you saying that spring and I are posting worthless posts or useful? Just curious because I have no idea how to react to this or otherwise approach this conversation. (ie, your question and conversation resulting from ~)

Useful - according to Sipylus. In his post he noted you had made 6 posts, all 6 of which had content, while spring had 7, 6 of which had content. The other people he said were "off to a rocking start" all had a similar number of posts, all of which were content - except for himself.

Questions addressed at the populace in general, requesting replies:

How many players do you think are not aware of the fact that a reasonable amount of discussion per day is propitious to town?

How scummy would a speedlynch in a normal setup be?

How is scummy activity not good news?

Are you truly unfamiliar with this line of argument?

If you've got a point, just make it. We don't need to spend a page or two exploring this with the Socratic method.

[JereIC]

JereIC, wanna answer my questions?

Not really. Those questions are a distraction from what we should be discussing - who's scum or not. But, briefly:

How many players do you think are not aware of the fact that a reasonable amount of discussion per day is propitious to town?

Not many.

How scummy would a speedlynch in a normal setup be?

Not very. The speedlynches I've seen always depend more on townies being reckless rather than scum instigating it.

How is scummy activity not good news?

Scummy activity is good news - but as I said, speedlynches are more about recklessness than scumminess, so speedlynches aren't good news.

Are you truly unfamiliar with this line of argument?

I am familiar with it. From my experience, it's not a very good line of argument.

Now, briefly, can you tell me why you want to discuss speedlynches?

[JereIC]

I don't particularly want to discuss speedlynch, I just want to see how people respond to the questions.

But what has motivated me to ask in the first place is my not liking your unvote of me and your subsequent reply when I called you on it.

As I see it, there was in reality very low danger of my getting speedlynched on page 2. And I think that had it happened, it would have been a pretty good thing because, in the specific frame of this game, I was not nearly scummy enough to warrant a lynch at the time of your unvote.

This make me think that your justification of your unvote, namely wanting to avoid a speedlynch, is pretty bunk. And kinda the worse possible answer you could have found in a sea of possibility.

It was a pretty low chance, but I didn't see any upside so I didn't want to risk it. Even if you were mafia, a speedlynch before you had a chance to post a defense would have kept you from possibly incriminating your buddies. I don't think I'm being overly cautious, I just don't see the point of risk for risk's sake.

Anyway, onto a new topic - what do you think of Zer0ph34r?

[JereIC]

I'm sorry to hear that, PerArdua.

My top suspects right now are Zero and spring. As other people have mentioned, Zero hasn't contributed much but posted to appear like he was. His insistence that his question may be a distraction tactic too - let's talk about what there is to talk about, not who's scum or not.

Spring really hasn't contributed much either. I'm beginning to think that she was trying to speedlynch Ectomancer with her "random" vote, and originally thought up the whole "speedlynches are good for town" argument to try to explain that. When the bandwagon swung around to her, she used it instead to try to knock us off-topic. On the other hand, she's right about Beyond_Birthday's posts - their tone is self-conscious, like he's constantly evaluating his own behavior.

By my counting, this is the fifth vote on Zero. I think he's scum, and I think we're going to be able to use the fact that he's scum to implicate other players.

Vote: Zer0ph34r

[JereIC]

JereIC's #138 in regards to Spring feels like craplogic IMO. What makes you believe that spring was attempting to speedlynch Ecto? And what makes you think the "quicklynches are good for the town" piece was created ahead of time?

It's not really deductive logic, and I apologize for not making that clearer. I'm making up lots of theories when I read what other folks have to say and seeing which ones help explain their behavior. In this case, I thought it was odd that Spring had a argument about how speedlynches are good for town, and it occurred to me that she had been third on a wagon against Ectomancer, so maybe she had thought up the theory when she was on that wagon to try to get herself out of trouble afterward.

JereIC has hit a nerve with a few people, but looking at his most recent posts, something stood out: he says that using Zero as scum, "I think we'll be able to use that to implicate other players as scum" (or something like that). It's full of confidence, but if he's wrong, we'll have nothing to go off of to make said implications. Now, unless he's bussing on day one to set up lynches later (seems very unlikely), it dosen't seem to me that scum would make that assumption. ...did that make sense to anyone?

Honestly, the only person I think he can implicate now is Spring. Mostly thinking of how he voted for her at the random stage, how she hasn't found him acting weird, and how she seems to be helping him out now. If he's scum, I think all that indicates she's scum too. If not, she still may be scum, but we can have a lot more fruitful day tomorrow.

[JereIC]

I was about to say the same thing as zwet, but actually looking over some other games it's about 50%/50%, although I only found about six games where there were appeals to emotion like this. That doesn't really weaken the case against him IMHO. He still hasn't contributed much to the game (active lurking), and his only defenses have been modified versions of the newbie defense.

[JereIC]

2) Please back up words like 'she seems to be helping him out', and 'she hasn't found him acting weird'.

In posts 135 and 144 you said you're ambivalent about Zero without commenting on the actual case against him.

In post 78 Sipylus made his case against Zero. In post 83 you started the discussion of speedlynches, and in 91, 97, and 104 demanded that everyone answer questions about speedlynches - right as the discussion about Zero was heating up. In 161 you told him to claim, then in 177 said you were up to lynch him but that we should wait a day so you could make a post. However, your posts today weren't about his case, it was about your case against me. That's twice you've tried to sidetrack the discussion from Zero to something else.

[JereIC]

You haven't made your opinion clear at all. You said yesterday you were up for lynching Zero, but you haven't voted for him. You say it's a crapshoot as to whether he's scum, but don't explain why the case is weak. You haven't commented on Nuwen's analysis, which could support your case against me pretty well, but would require you to talk about Zero.

My point's not just about content - your timing and apparent unwillingness to discuss Zero, even when it's in your interest, are suspect. That's what makes it look like you're trying to cover for him while distancing yourself from him, and if he turns out to be scummy, that's going to make you look scummy too.

[JereIC]

[Insert long and intelligent analysis here]

Brilliant. If Zero is scum, you are the obvious scum partner. Therefore, Zero is not scum, and you are scum. (This is tongue in cheek, do not take seriously. But seriously, bravo, and I agree with your logic.)

Unvote

Now, moving on to the next point:

Actually, your initial play and the questions relating to them, Spring, are a bit scummy in my book. Your questions have offered you a bit of defense, but JereIC, I feel, has a better point in your unwillingness to lynch him. It could either be:

A) you do not want to lynch a townie.

OR

B) You do not want to lynch a scum partner. However, this is severely lacking. I think if you were both scum, then you would rather bus him off, by your current logic.

As a result, I am working off of Zero is stupid townie (this and Nuwen's argument), and as a result, I think that your defense "[JereIC's] argument would apply if Zero is scum" is false. I think that

Vote Springlullaby

is a better place for my vote.

...

That doesn't make any sense. My case against Spring is built mostly on Zero being scum. If you assume he's a townie I don't see how you can vote for her.

[JereIC]

Nuwen, I've reread your posts about Zero at least three times now, and all I get out of #190 is a long and colorfully-written version of the newbie defense. In #206 you add the argument that no one tried to redirect the bandwagon, but it's just as likely that his scum buddies stayed clear or tried to bus him. Are there other reasons you think he's not scum?

[JereIC]

BB, just making sure I understand your argument: Spring is scummy because she tried to stop Zero's lynch. She did this, even though he's a townie, because she knew that his lynch would make evidence against other scum. Am I missing or messing up anything? Also, what in particular in Nuwen's post convinced you?

Nuwen, you believe that there's scum among the six players who were on the Zero bandwagon. Are you saying all the scum were in the bandwagon, or just some of them? If it's all of them, then I think you're severly underestimating the average player - how likely is it that all scum would associate themselves by joining the same bandwagon? If it's just some of them, I'm not sure I see your point - you could pick six players at random and you'd have a good chance that at least one of them would be scum. Do you think we should focus on the earlier or later voters maybe? Please expand on your thoughts about us six.

Spring, you mention your default alignment for lurkers is scum. Does that not apply to active lurkers like Zero?

[JereIC]

Ditto.

[JereIC]

Dit the toe.

As in a toe named Dit?

Still waiting for a response from Springlullaby and Nuwen to my questions in #233.

[JereIC]

Jere and Zwet, you support an extension, but your votes are still on. Were you not concerned with Zero at L-2 if you support more discussion?
This cellphone is horrid for research. Can someone see what their apparent stance was prior to this request? (We still need to submit to the mod)

That's a good point, I just hadn't thought of it.

Unvote

My stance up to post 195 was to lynch Zero (and, if he was scum, start the case against Spring in earnest). As of post 213 I wanted more information from other players, and I should have unvoted to make sure they had time to answer. As the fifth vote, that contradicts what I said in post 44. 213 was basically a screw up in that I was too focused on spring and zach's quarrel, BB's argument, and Nuwen's defense of Zero to think to unvote.

[JereIC]

My God, did MaFoHero break out of the same asylum as Nuwen and Spring? Who scrawled onto your padded cell walls "SPEEDLYNCHES ARE GOOD 4 TOWN"? You all can't be part of a science experiment: not even the maddest of mad scientists are that insane.*

Obvious insanity aside, your points about Zach and Zwet seem decent, and Zach's response to them is fascinating. However, you defense of Zero is

exactly the same

as Nuwen's and Spring's. And it's still basically the newbie defense. I can't imagine you picked that up at the insane asylum too.... Also, I plain don't like anyone who comes to the defense of another in this game, unless they're masons or otherwise have proof of each other's towniness.

I've got some thoughts about beyond_birthday too, gimme a chance to write them down and make them clear.

* Not that I'm interested in discussing it atm. After the game, I've got a thesis I'm going to post on this.

[JereIC]

First off, I was hoping to wait for Nuwen’s response to my question about his speedlynch argument, but it’s not necessary now as I’m not that suspicious of him anymore.

Anyway, BB’s arguments against Spring are craplogic. The main thing is his justification for his vote on Spring. In post 241, he says his argument is that she delayed Zero’s lynch, and assumes that Zero is a townie. Delaying a lynch of a townie is not particularly scummy imho. I really don’t see scum trying to delay any lynch except that of their buddies. As MaFoHero said about zwet’s 184, the real scum tell is when they stay on the lynch and gloat when it’s close to succeeding. But what really bugs me is that this argument works just as well against the other people who posted but didn’t vote for Zero. It could even work for BB and me, as we’ve jumped the bandwagon – that’s going to stop the bandwagon a lot better than just posting. Without any reason to distinguish Spring from the rest of us, his argument doesn’t hold any water.

Add to that the self-consciousness that Spring and MaFoHero pointed out and his early support of the Zero bandwagon, and I’m willing to vote for him.

Vote: Beyond_Birthday

I’m not up for a Zwet lynch yet, but I also haven’t read all of his posts that closely. I’ll try to do that tonight and post something in the morning.

[JereIC]

Ok, one thing struck me as odd about Zwet's posts. In post 57, BB calls Zero's posts up to that point "cute". In post 64 Zwet dismisses BB's criticism and says that cute posts are ok. But in post 87 he goes after Zero for a "blah" post. The change of heart seems odd, especially because Zwet goes onto vote for Zero because of these blah posts.

BB's monster post is going to keep me busy for another day at least.

[JereIC]

Only a couple of points about BB's post I want to ask about so far. I should be able to read it more in-depth tomorrow.

Also, while I feel that Spring is town (and I strongly disagree with this sentiment on me in the following post), I would like to note that it wasn’t until

@ Ectomancer: I see now. I was thrown off by you saying 'I think you missed etc.', kinda unusual to see people interpreting other people to such a degree.

I'm still not liking JereIC, has actually contributed nothing now that the game is under way bar from a vague question about what I think of Zero. I'm not liking Beyond_Birthday either, I think his post sounds very self-conscientious. I'm kind ambivalent concerning Zero, could be awkward town or awkward scum at this point.

So Zero, what do you think of the game so far?

That anyone commented that they felt that I have said, essentially nothing. As a result, I am more suspicious of EVERYONE who failed, before this post, to argue against others, for example, Zwet, to acknowledge this “fact” and then said that it was true. Zwet, I use as an example, who said that I gave reasons for my post. I would use Per for saying I have 6 content post out of 6 (at the time he made that list), however, she isn’t around. I am pretty wary of these people right now.

I cannot make heads or tails of this paragraph. It's like a couple of important verbs are missing or something.

Alright, just a question, let’s suppose that Zero IS scum. At this point (on page 11/12, where we are now), who would his mafianess implicate? Myself, Spring, or Nuwen? (Only included because she is the primary defense for Zero at the moment.) Or someone else entirely? What if Zero flips town? Any leads then?

I stand by my basic argument - if Zero is scum, then it's very likely Spring is too. The case against her alone is fairly weak though, and I don't I could vote for her today based on the evidence so far.

Also, I support the arguments against him and the weakness of his defense (and the defense of others on his behalf), and would argue it's more likely than not that he's scum. The only reason I'm voting for you and not him now is because your vote for Spring was incredibly scummy.

If Zero gets lynched and is town, Zwet looks more suspect for his early participation in the bandwagon.

I don’t like what you are suggesting here, which is that Spring IS scum if he is and might be if he isn’t. Mostly because you are insinuating guilt no matter which way he falls, which should be self evident. Saying this seems to serve the sole purpose of setting Spring up for tomorrow...

I don't follow what you don't like about this. As you said, it's self-evident that everyone might be scum until they are proven otherwise (cop, death, etc.). The case against her would be weak if Zero was town, and she wouldn't be my first choice to vote for on Day 2, but she still might be scum. All I was doing was stating the obvious.

[JereIC]

And by "ask about," I meant "respond to." Go me.

[JereIC]

Bump to get this out of Meme's "Last post" spam.

I still can't tell what BB is talking about with the whole "self-conscious" thing. All I've picked out of it is that you've FOSed everyone.

[JereIC]

Nooooooooooooo... *keels over*

Go... town! ack!