Mafia 86 - mafia.gif - Game Over!

[LlamaFluff]

Hey, im replacing cybele. Finals start monday for me so it might take a while to catch up completely, but I will do my best to get there.

[LlamaFluff]

All caught up now. My top two picks today are Seph (who is Niv now), and BA. I think that BA is likely Jap mafia given all the interactions between him and the dead members there. Seph is very likely Greek mafia, and very unlikely Jap mafia.

Starting with Seph-gor-niv though

Seph for day one was basically non existent. He made a random vote on SG, and that never went away, or was reinforced. He made excuses twice, the first time because he is bad at the random stage, and later because he is bad with big games. The second excuse made some acknowlagement that the random stage had been left, and called BA slightly scummy for pushing a “quick hammer”, the random vote still existed here though.

Now, BA is hinted at scummy given that he is quick hammering according to Seph. In what is the first in a chain of quotes that hints to scum-alignment, the player BA is called scummy for wanting to quick hammer was tajo, a very scummy

town

player.

The first reaction from Seph on the second day, is that there are two mafia families, and they just crosskilled. This is just a big stretch to me. If there were only two killing factons in a large game, especially with a cult death, I would put it at something like scum-cult-sk. Assuming two mafia families when there are only half of what have become the normal death rate makes me think he saw an opposing mafia faction flip, and jumped to a conclusion.

Later when Emp starts his crash and burn, Seph starts calling him a jester. Also at this point Seph has failed to make his caught up post for a few weeks. There is more mention of emp being a jester here, and an excuse of why he is not contributing as “material he is not familiar or comfortable with”.

Ending the day though, Seph slips up again with inside information. When he hammered Emp, he said he speaks with the majority with the vote sounding like it was a self-decision and he came to the conclusion Emp was scum and not a jester like he had been saying. In the same post, he tacks on that it was Tar almost forcing him to vote Emp, and stresses this when asked by CKD later. This goes against the entire idea that the vote for Emp was a decision made by Seph, but was suddenly a decision made by Tar for him, passing off the blame for a townie lynch before they flipped. The second time Seph has made hints at a scummy player being town before they died.

In his last post of the game, Seph takes an “I told you so” stance over the two families situation now that it is confirmed (a full game day has passed since he claimed two families). Says he will reread, and disappears off into the sunset.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote BlakAdder

Finals week so im a little busy. The Japanese mafia is still killing, therefore they arent all dead. I would much rather get rid of the end of the first faction today so we only have two anti-town groups left.

@Massive voters - Do you think massive is Jap mafia? Who is if no?

[LlamaFluff]

I wasn't keeping track of who might be in which mafia. I'm not picky at the moment.

If there was a guilty on one of each family wouldnt you rather get rid of the Jap mafia first in an attempt to cut down ammount of NKs? Same question to BA and the other massive voters. This wagon massive is really weak, BA is very likely the Jap member, Seph very likely a Greek.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
vote EA

BA is not Jap, Seph fits more with Greek then Jap, EA could fit as Jap.

[LlamaFluff]

Jebus isnt lying, if he is there is a mafia doctor. Hypothetically, Greek should win if we lynch non-vig town today, all kills go through, and no greeks die. Even if Jebus is Greek trying to do something like this, he gets viged at least if EA is town, and likely killed by anti-town player even if EA is scum.

Translation - BA is confirmed anti-town since he didnt just claim vig. EA is nearly certain anti-town since the vig probably killed Rush.

Lets kill EA since it might get rid of the last Jap

[LlamaFluff]

If Jebus is telling the truth you are confirmed anti-town. If you were vig you dont think Jebus is lying, so you wouldnt of voted him. So either Jebus just went major gambit mode on us, or is telling the truth.

If its the second one, EA and BA are of opposite groups in the SK-Jap-Greek trio, and we should be down to at most two killing groups before this night ends.

If Jebus is watcher, you and EA need to be lynched/vigged immediately. I think you are anti, EA I did have leaning town, but results say he killed the townish CKD last night. Rush was nearly certaintly the vigs doing.

[LlamaFluff]

Also, how can you be so sure that Jebus is not lying? And how did you come to the conclusion that there must be a Mafia Doctor if he is lying? I smell scum slip.

There is no reason for Jebus to be lying regardless of alignment. As SK or a Jap member he just nuked his chance at winning unless he picked a member from both other factions correctly. I brought up mafia doctor to show how over the top stupid calling Jebus lying scum is, since it is the only way that this is a good idea.

[LlamaFluff]

Dead (13/24)

17- populartajo - vanilla townie - lynched on Day 1

15- Stef - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 1

16- ooba - cult leader - murdered on Night 1

10- Empking - vanilla townie - lynched on Day 2

09- Electra - greek mafia member - assassinated on Night 2

13- GhostWriter - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 2
22- sekinj - japanese mafia member - murdered on Night 2

21- Tarhalindur - tracker - slain on Night 2
01- skitzer - doctor - lynched on Day 3
04- armlx - vanilla townie - assassinated on Night 3
07- curiouskarmadog - vanilla townie - murdered on Night 3
11- hasdgfas (TheSweatpantsNinja) - roleblocker - slain on Night 3
20- Rush - vanilla townie - killed on Night 3

We should probably try and determine the alignment of EA/BA so we either kill the SK or the Jap mafia. Greek would leave us with four kills to deal with.

Jap is not killed or murdered. This means that the kills of EA and BA are from vig/SK/greek. Here I am confused though since BA says he isnt the vig. I would assume the vig was the one who "killed" stef-GW-Rush.

I just dont know, but I like the EA lynch since he is the one doing the murdered kills, and neither ooba or CKD looked scummy to me meaning I dont think he is the vig.


@BA - What other accusation? I dont think he is lying because you denied being a killing role, you look really scummy, and there is no pro-town reason for him to claim double guilties, especially when he could get the vig coming out contering him. The only way that it would be good for scum is if he was Greek and was assured to not get killed. Thats how far fetched Jebus lying about this is.

If you were a vig, you would know he is telling the truth, and already be voting EA. You are scum. Enough said.

[LlamaFluff]

My other accusation was that if I had claimed vig, you still would have said I was confirmed scum.
I'm not a vig, but I still know he's lying, because I'm a vanilla.

If you claimed vig and voted EA I would of bought the claim 100% since the Rush kill I thought came from a vig. If the vig kills or murders then we do have proof that Jebus is lying though (assuming EA isnt vig) since he will be claiming having targeted one of the two dead watched players.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
vote EA

BA is not Jap, Seph fits more with Greek then Jap, EA could fit as Jap.

Even though I shot Japanese scum night 2?

Good point. With two killers IDed I got a little anxious of been able to finish off the Jap/SK group.

unvote
vote BA

back to the first vote

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama: Can you explain or restate this?

If the vig kills or murders then we do have proof that Jebus is lying though (assuming EA isnt vig) since he will be claiming having targeted one of the two dead watched players.

Which part would Jebus be lying about? Why does it factor on what the vig does?

Jebus claimed to of found two different players doing two different types of killing. If Jebus was fakeclaiming, and even managed to pick out two kiling roles of different alignments, he would of needed to match the vig with the correct kill style. Let say I was the vig and did the "killed" style, even though I wasnt claimed to of killed the wrong target, I could of busted the claim since I should of shown up killing one of them.

[LlamaFluff]

Need to explain this again? OK...

As for the mafia doctor theory - It is the only concieveale way this is a scum gambit, and you would need to be Greek scum to even have it be an option. Greek wins with a non-greek lynch today, and all kills not being at greek members. If they can assure Jebus living through scum doctor, its a good gambit. That is why I kept saying its not a scum gambit.

Rush or BA were going to be killed by the vig last night, that was really obvious if you were reading the game. Plus Rush was the only player who I had a scum read on who got killed, armlx was town, cow was town and CKD looked pretty town. It was also why I was a little warry of BA and brought up the vig thing. Given that he didnt die and Rush did (while BA was scummier) I thought he might of been the vig when you claimed.

For 915, you have to be kidding me. You claim watcher and give us results. My first thought is not "Are there reasons for a town player to fake here", its "would this be a good move for scum". The only way it could possibly be a good move I have already discussed. On top of having that happen though, you also would need to of correctly identified two killing roles, from two different groups and either match the vig to the vig kills, or not account for any of the vig kills. Fakeclaiming town never crossed my mind, or should of happened.

I didnt stop to debate your claim, because its pretty damn believeable. There was no reason for town to fakeclaim results or a role, there is no reason for scum to fakeclaim something that has such a massive chance to have holes shot through it. When someone claims something that solid, there is no reason not to belive it. What did you expect BA to do anyway if he was scum? This plan outted the vig at least, and easily could out other types of roles depending on what BA was.

[LlamaFluff]

I have doubts that CKD was killed by a vig. A vig would of been the one to kill Rush, since he was likely to be scum. The 'duel' excuse doesnt make sense for targeting CKD over massive/Rush, actions were submitted after the duel ended.

Right now I think the Greek is Seph have some idea of partner possibilities but will bring that up later, EA is either the SK or Vig, BA I still think fits too well with Jap to not be it.

If EA is the SK, I would actually prefer a vig claim today, since it does eliminate one anti-town role in its entirety. This would mean only two anti-town kills to deal with per night. If the vig waits for the night to kill EA, there is still a shot going out from him.

[LlamaFluff]

Well, then we'd probably lose our vig for sure seeing as the doctor is gone... But at least the mafia/SK won't be taking down another pro-town player.

Maybe maybe not. In the case that EA is the last Jap mafia, or is the SK the vig isnt a lock to die.

Jebus watches the vig. Now we have power role A watching power role B. So power role A has to be killed first or scum get caught killing power B. We have two killing groups trying to get rid of two players, so they would have to kill Jebus first, because if they both get the smart idea to kill EA thinking that Jebus will be killed by the second, we catch ourselves two scum.

The highest chance is that Jebus gets double killed and EA lives to me, so I am all for a vig claim if EA is not one.

The outcomes are

1) All groups kill Jebus
2) Groups kill both players
3) All groups kill EA

Situation 1 and 3 are decent since we keep a strong town role, and even have the offchance of catching scum.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote
vote niv

Since niv is scum for sure. I still want to get it down 100% if EA is the vig or not. As I already pointed out scum are left with a WIFOM issue if a vig outs themselves to finish EA. Also conisder this me claiming "not-vig".

@Jebus - Response to my post about why I voted BA? You seemed to ignore it and still are voting me.

[LlamaFluff]

vote: LlamaFluff

How do you know that the town are in lylo with the Greek mafia? I say scum slip again.

Please use some logic about what the setup is. We have three dead Jap mafia and still four kills a night, which means that there is four (or more) from that faction. Balanced factions would mean likely three Greek mafia left, which with four NKs can make it lylo at 11 players since a town lynch followed by four non-greek deaths leaves it at six players, three Greek.

[LlamaFluff]

@farside - EA doesnt get lynched if no one counters vig. If you are vig, counter him. I already how showed taking out a faction works given the WIFOM situation it makes for scum involving their next NK.

[LlamaFluff]

First Niv isnt going to be Jap mafia, I am pretty sure of that on connections alone and how much we knew when Seph made is slips. EA I dont know what he is going to be, if its anti town, there is a higher chance of non-Greek. If we can take out someone who has a chance of finishing a faction at the expense of getting our vig in the open, it is worth it to me.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah fair enough, just given my read and guesses on what the groups were overnight, coupled with how people are acting today make me certain that Niv is scum.

Still hold true what I said about no counter-vig means we dont lynch EA. A scum-scum-SK-SK-cult setup is just wow.

[LlamaFluff]

Can someone explain the massive wagon to me? When we have someone like Niv still in the game I dont understand that choice of a vote.

@Farside - If no one claims vig would you still want a EA lynch?

[LlamaFluff]

I still dont believe two vigs. As far as I am concerned though, EA is not going to be lynched unless someone counters him.

[LlamaFluff]

I still like the possibilities of the WIFOM situation where we kill SK-EA and scum have to let him live or risk getting caught by you. You indirectly act as a doctor in this game now.

[LlamaFluff]

@Mod - Prod Niv

/*
* Did that already a while ago. If he doesn't reply by tomorrow, I'll get him replaced.
* I already have a replacement in line. I just wanted niv to show up, since I cross
* replaced with him.
*/

This day isnt going anywhere untill he claims

@Niv - You are at L-1 with your selfvote and have one impending vote, claim.

[LlamaFluff]

I really want a claim from Niv before I have to leave sunday...

[LlamaFluff]

Well im V/LA from the 21st to 26th, expecting to have zero access, at tops I would be able to get one post in. Would prefer if you dont lynch when I am gone though.

[LlamaFluff]

1) Cybele's weirdness with regard to her random vote. YES, it is still a valid tell.
2) Being the one living player clearly tied to the dead greek mafiate: see above, regarding to Electra's behaviour re: EA tunnelling on Cybele.
3) Insistence on Jap mafia being the priority, even when Greeks could win overnight.
4) Trying to get a vig to out itself needlessly. (Indicates that EA is SK or genuine rather than Greek if Llama is scum).
5) Calling Niv (me) certain scum, without a single good argument for the proposition to his name.

Just got done with a very long drive so making a brief post, more tomorrow.

I cant really refute 1 or 2 since that wasnt me, but given my role and what i thave figured out, I know I am town and am trying to piece together a few more things.

3) Swing and a miss here. We have 11 alive, and I am making a 4-4-1-1 assumption for killing roles, or a 3-1-1-1 alive. If we eliminate one of the 1s, there are only three kills and the game cant end given that three greeks need four non-greek kills to win. Jap lynch eliminates today being a possible lylo.

4) I dont want what I am thinking to be a wash here, and if EA is the vig what I am working on will take much longer to actually figure out, and possibly cause quite a bit of confusion. There is a good reason for me to want to know if EA is lying about being the vig, since there are a few people who are obviously not the SK already. It being another 1 faction, eliminating it would prevent lylo

5) I put some stuff up on Seph a while and will go through again later. There just seem to be multiple instances where he ended up with an idea about the setup of the game before it became part of the scene. You fit as greek to me though, and eliminating a greek does take away from the lylo threat unless its a five player scumteam.

[LlamaFluff]

You are correct that that is the case; you are incorrect in that the Greeks are still the priority. The chance of five kills all hitting different non-greeks is pretty small anyway; the 'can win overnight' point was merely to show that they are the strongest threat right now.

They are the strongest threat at this point, while getting rid of an entire faction is slightly preferable since it does bring the ammount of NKs down, bringing down a faction to the point where they can not end the game (even on a low chance) is ideal.

Again, trying to argue for something that would lead to an SK (ie non-Greek) lynch.

I have a bit of a personal priority to be hunting the SK, and have a really good reason for getting a counter to EA. Given that again a SK lynch (especially non-EA one) would not only present a WIFOM between jebus-EA as the modified doctor and only two anti-town threats, but also prevent one anti-town kill and eliminate any chance at the game ending.

I've looked, and this is flatout untrue.

Seph was the first to speculate about multiple factions, with just two kills at night. There was a cult and scum flip which again really doesnt sound like scum-scum-cult-sk threat to me. At this point in my read I expected scum-cult-sk-maybe vig.

There was also the fact that Seph when hammering Emp, really sounded like he expected a town flip. When he hammered, he first said that the lynch was Tar's idea, called Emp likely jester, secondly scum. This hammer just still leaves me floored. Seph hammered a player 1) Because of another player 'making' him 2) who he thought was a jester. It just feels like newbie scum being overly cautious of what is an easy lynch to me, and trying to shuffle the blame to another player a bit too blatantly given that he knew Emp wasnt scum (with him at least). The fear of having Emp be opposing scum is likely what made him keep scum as second option. Remember Seph knew there were two families at this point.

Later Seph brought back the "two families" arguement after the death of a Greek, but for the first time gives any reasoning for this train of thought. At this point though the reasoning was already public.

While this is primarily inside information thoughts that make Seph Greek (not Jap since Jap could not of known of duel families untill D3 broke), the actions regarding the lynch of Emp make him look very scummy.

Gor on his own feels pretty scummy as well. He initally really doesnt commit to a whole lot, his first read comes as SG-scummish due to OMGUS reasons about his predicessor. Later this changed to a massive vote for "willing to vote many people", which I disagree with as being suspicious of and sticking to three suspects isnt trying to lynch everyone.

Apart fromt that all the Gor did over his short stay was apoligize for Seph being scummy, and for not contributing too much. Him coming in with a very weak suspicion of SG and a vote against massive (who was a pusher of a Seph lynch with some decent reasons) is scummy in the suspicion category.

You just replaced scum who was on the way out here I am thinking. In your opinion though - What is the ideal scum group to lynch?

[LlamaFluff]

Removing a Greek mafiate removes the chance of an overnight loss, too.

Which is why I am voting you at this point.

I'm sure you do have a personal priority to lynch the SK; he isn't your scumbuddy. I'm not sure what you're getting at about this 'modified doctor wifom' thing- could you clarify?

I do have a priority, that is all about that. The modified doctor is the reason I would prefer a Jap/SK lynch. We have EA who is our vig and Jebus who is our watcher. Jebus watches EA at nights, and scum can not kill him. If we eliminate one entire anti-town faction, that increases the likelyhood of only having Jebus be NKed, while still leaving the chance of EA getting double killed, and two scum caught. Whoever Jebus watches cant die before Jebus, modified doctor.

He said 'if he's not a jester, he's DEFINITELY (emphasis mine) scum.' Please explain how, in a million years, that can be translated as 'expecting a town flip.'

When he hammered, he first said that the lynch was Tar's idea, called Emp likely jester, secondly scum.

He said 'ok Tar, this is your idea,' sure. The obvious implication of this is not to blame Seph if Emp was, indeed, a jester. It's a 'don't say i didn't warn you' kind of thing.

I just hate any "I warned you" type posts, since regardless of what they net, quite a bit of the blame is ready to be shifted. While when its a good lynch Seph would lose some credit, he still gets enough for a few points.

See the following newbie thought process:

And for countermeasures this one

1. Emp looks really scummy, is he Jap?

2. I wonder if he is jester?

3. Emp is an easy lynch, but I dont want to lose the game by taking the easy lynch and killing the jester.

4. Ok fine its worth the risk, but if we lose I blame Tar.

Ah, the OMGUS accusation. How I hate thee.

Did you read the reasoning behind his suspicion? It was due to the SG-Seph exchange.

Being willing to 'float in the wind' certainly is a scumtell.

Listing multiple suspects on the otherhand does NOT fall in the scumtell category. Look at massives eighth post, small cases on his top three. Not 'float in the wind'. Over the next couple

weeks

he voted for two of them, in fact by the time gor voted him, he had only voted for one. Not even close to 'float in the wind'.

Also, note LF's clear double standard in expecting me to defend Seph, whilst saying of my suspicions of Cybele 'well, that's not me, I can't answer for it.'

Difference here is all you have done apart from an analysis is post a case on me. What do you expect me to do here? It seems like you want me to just drop everything all your predicessors did for no real reason. You on the otherhand are using things that I have done and calling me scum for it. So we either both drop predicessor actions and I can only defend or belittle your analysis, or I can use the scummy stuff Seph and Gor did as active evidence.

[LlamaFluff]

WHY does Jebus have to watch EA? Answer: he doesn't. Since we think EA is likely SK, we have no problem with him being killed; in fact, we expect our vig to do it.

EA is not going to be the SK, doesnt fit. I am thinking vig, small chance other scum. SK really doesnt fit the kill pattern though. Again you trying to increase the chance of our vig dying is scummy.

1.

Removing a Greek mafiate removes the chance of an overnight loss, too.

Which is why I am voting you at this point.

The modified doctor is the reason I would prefer a Jap/SK lynch

I dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.

I just hate any "I warned you" type posts, since regardless of what they net, quite a bit of the blame is ready to be shifted. While when its a good lynch Seph would lose some credit, he still gets enough for a few points.

You just hate them. A-ha. And, again, it is scummy how? HE HAS STATED EXPLICITLY he doesn't see any chance of Emp = town. He is clearly not trying to deflect responsibility in the event that Emp is town.

He suggested Jester. He got told that was a really stupid, perhaps even scummy suggestion. He gives in, but with the caveat that he still feels a jester is a distinct possibility.[/quote]

I still think that Seph was thinking that Emp was either jester, jap or town at the end. What I dont see is town really fretting about a jester too much if he also saw Emp as scummy. Scum would seem a little bit more afraid about the Jester possibility, especially Greek who got rid of the cult threat, and an opposing facton member.

Go check out the MD discussion entitled 'OMGUS doesn't exist.' Started by me. Gorckat claimed to get a scummy vibe off SG's interactions with seph; if you want to try and make the case that you don't think a town player really would have gotten scum vibes there, be my guest. Calling it 'omgus' doesn't add anything, and is the kind of thing people throwing mud rather than genuinely scumhunting do.

Damn I hate this debate. To me OMGUS in pure terms really doesnt exist, but a player being hostile or voting you, will, even if it is very slight, make you think they are scum. You may be able to back up the vote with evidence or things like that, but being influenced by people voting against you occurs in the game. As less and less reasoning for a return vote occurs, the vote moves farther from the "logical vote" area of the scale to the "OMGUS vote" scale (which is onyl achieved in the random stage and again is debateable there).

ANYWHO. Gor called SG suspicious purely on the exchange between SG-Seph (who Gor just replaced). This suspicion was also never really elaborated on, just left at gut. Even if you disagree on the OMGUS vote line, you have to agree that this was a really shitty suspicion.

Seem to fit that description perfectly, in my eyes. He also lists things he 'finds suspicious' about three others. Then makes the above post. Then votes Seph, who wasn't one of those three- based on truly horrific reasoning. Then goes to SG.

Then of course, there's these - from consecutive posts no less-

Of course I'm willing to vote for anyone.

Please point out where I've indicated I'm willing to vote for anyone.

While I am not saying the vote on Seph was well reasoned, I do think its the correct vote so am probably giving it some deserved slack. The quote of "I am willing to vote for anyone" is being exaggerated a bit though. I dont think that it was everyone in the extent of every player, but everyone as in anyone he is suspicious of (SG, Seph, BA, EA, armlx). This is something for massive to clarify though.

Nope. That's what you're doing. Again, expecting me to defend Gorckat/Seph, but unwilling to defend Cybele.

Well partially because I have zero clue HOW to defend 'lurky' since I am more of a prolific poster then anything else, especially when I am into a game.

Anyways for the backing off, I just think that Cybele was afraid of getting wagoned D1 for what really was a semi-serious vote and freaked out. He isnt a mafia player for the most part, still at the goon status while having almost 2200 onsite posts. I have seen lots of new players who are experiancing things for the first time just freak out under pressure as town.

I dont get the #2 point though. I dont see Cybele ever tunneling on anyone or Electra being suspicious of anyone really (except maybe KUF/Jahudo).

[LlamaFluff]

Also, what makes you think Sierra or I are the SK?

My notes basically just have you two as options at this point. EA doesnt fit and SL doesnt fit for that part of the puzzle. I have strong greek or a town read on everyone else (except BA who I just am clueless on).

I know its pretty conveluted in the process that I went through, but if someone counterclaimed right there it would of ment a scum lynch, no questions asked. If fact it still would if someone counters EA, would make my job a bit easier.

Will get to the other stuff a bit later.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok given how many votes I have and how many people seem to be showing intention of voting me, im going to claim now to try and get this game back on track.

I am the

psychologist

. Every night I can talk to one person (not literally message but flavor summary) and if they are a serial killer, they will become pro-town.

Night one Cybele talked to EA (which I will get into more later), who was not the SK

Night two Cybele talked to TSN (hascow) who obviously was not the SK.

Night three my read put me between SL and Sierra for my choice. I ended up checking SL, who again was not the SK.

So basically I know that EA is not the SK, and neither is SL. If I do target the SK during the night, they become vanilla town, and their night kill does not go through.

So, this is why I reacted the way I did when EA claimed. When he claimed, I knew that he was not the SK, but it would of been in my favor for a vig to counterclaim him, or a SK to take the gamble of "I can get the vig lynched and hopefully leave town in lylo so I wont be killed tomorrow".

If EA got countered by someone, the possibilities would be he is either the vig or scum. If he got countered, Jebus watches the player who countered, and EA gets lynched. In the situation where EA flips vig, I would target the counter claimer, hoping they were the SK trying to play into a scenario where town lynching them loses town the game due to number of Greeks alive. If EA flipped town I would take a shot at Jahudo or Sierra who I think one of which has to be the SK.

It was in my massive favor to have EA get countered if he was lying, since it guarenteed a scum lynch, and maybe gave us confirmed town in one of the SK turned town or me. One of us getting NKed from that point would of confirmed us both town.

Where my notes stand right now are as follows

Greek - Fonz, Farside, one of SL/Jahudo/SG. More likely SG then the other two.

Jap - EA or BA. This one is just giving me some problems. BA looks Jap, but the reaction over the whole Jebus fakeclaim makes me think he is town. EA makes some sense, but this one is just giving me a hard time

SK - Jahudo, Sierra. No one else really is showing up to me as SK. Both of these players just have a way of posting that is setting off bells, but I cant get a good grasp on why. When I try to fit them to a scumgroup I have some problems even though it does work, so they are my SK suspects.

Town - Massive (feel free to yell at me for this one), if not the SK, Sierra. Massive just feels town to me, especially with the piece of shit wagon that started on him early today. That made me eliminate him from the Greek pool 100%, especially given that quite a few of his pushers are likely Greek. Sierra seems townish to me, but for some reason I just get a nagging feeling about her, but she is leaning the SK to me.

Moving on to places where I breadcrumbed (even though it should be apparent when I gave up with the "get the non-SK countered" plan).

I still dont believe two vigs. As far as I am concerned though, EA is not going to be lynched unless someone counters him.

-Knowing there is an SK. I really doubt (and would be pissed) if my whole role is a red herring. Also this is me forshadowing the fact that I am not going to let EA get lynched since no one claiming was leading me to belive he was the vig. If it came down to it I would of claimed to save the vig today.

[4) I dont want what I am thinking to be a wash here, and if EA is the vig what I am working on will take much longer to actually figure out, and possibly cause quite a bit of confusion. There is a good reason for me to want to know if EA is lying about being the vig,

since there are a few people who are obviously not the SK already.

It being another 1 faction, eliminating it would prevent lylo

-Starting the claim that I know some people are not the SK. Reading the game there is really no clear way to ever of figure out who is the SK and who isnt, which is why they are one of my least favorite roles to hunt for.

I have a bit of a personal priority to be hunting the SK, and have a really good reason for getting a counter to EA. Given that again a SK lynch (especially non-EA one) would not only present a WIFOM between jebus-EA as the modified doctor and only two anti-town threats, but also prevent one anti-town kill and eliminate any chance at the game ending.

-Basically claiming I am a psychologist here. It is my priority to be hunting the SK because that is all my role is there for. Also I emphisized the boon of getting a non-EA SK lynched (which I would settle for in this situation). At this point I knew that EA was not the SK so made a point to emphisize a NON-ea SK, since the SK is not EA.

I do have a priority, that is all about that. The modified doctor is the reason I would prefer a Jap/SK lynch. We have EA who is our vig and Jebus who is our watcher. Jebus watches EA at nights, and scum can not kill him. If we eliminate one entire anti-town faction, that increases the likelyhood of only having Jebus be NKed, while still leaving the chance of EA getting double killed, and two scum caught. Whoever Jebus watches cant die before Jebus, modified doctor.

-By this point I am trying to get Fonz to STOP PUSHING why I am pretty interested in the SK. I also again am calling EA basically a confirmed vig at this point since I know he is due to no one countering him. Me claiming will likely distract the SK, and we still will have jap/greek trying to figure out who is better to kill out of jebus/me/ea with the mod-doctor.

EA is not going to be the SK, doesnt fit. I am thinking vig, small chance other scum. SK really doesnt fit the kill pattern though. Again you trying to increase the chance of our vig dying is scummy.

-EA is not SK, yadda yadda yadda. I even acknowlage that he could be other scum to try and prove a point its

specifically

SK that I know he isnt.

My notes basically just have you two as options at this point. EA doesnt fit and SL doesnt fit for that part of the puzzle. I have strong greek or a town read on everyone else (except BA who I just am clueless on).

I know its pretty conveluted in the process that I went through, but if someone counterclaimed right there it would of ment a scum lynch, no questions asked. If fact it still would if someone counters EA, would make my job a bit easier.

-This is me starting to describe my notes as only Jahudo/Sierra as SK. Also this is my first claim of my N3 target being SL, who I previously had just been ignoring for the most part over the whole claim thing. Also this is me reitterating the helpfulness of someone counterclaiming EA, for not only meaning a scum lynch, but still giving me that shot at getting an extra townie while losing an SK.

tl;dr

I am the psycologist

N1 target - EA
N2 target - TSN (became hascow)
N3 target - SL

breadcrumbs above.

[LlamaFluff]

Oh yeah, Jebus should be in the town category too.

[LlamaFluff]

I just can't believe EA isn't the SK. God help me.
Llama do you know for sure if you are blocked by someone? I ask only because I just can't believe someone town killed CKD for such poor reasoning so forgive me question.

I sumbitted SL as my target last night and I just got a response basically boiling down to "okay". I will try to check though with claus but I think that im more along the lines of doctor then cop in the RB category. Also rereading TSN/hascow to see if I can pick up on any RB breadcrumbs.

Anyways. I am rereading a few others right now, starting to lean to adding my vote to the SG wagon. A lot of my case on farside is on connections (some not proven) and it seems like no one really likes my fonz case. Jahudo is bugging me again though in seeming insistant on a EA lynch.

@Fonz - Probably shouldnt of gone about my role the way I did, always tend to play bad as a PR though for some reason. I saw a possible gambit that I thought someone might take if they were desprate enough SK or Jap (BA, SG came to mind specifically) and went for it, didnt work.

[LlamaFluff]

I just can't believe EA isn't the SK. God help me.
Llama do you know for sure if you are blocked by someone? I ask only because I just can't believe someone town killed CKD for such poor reasoning so forgive me question.

I sumbitted SL as my target last night and I just got a response basically boiling down to "okay". I will try to check though with claus but I think that im more along the lines of doctor then cop in the RB category. Also rereading TSN/hascow to see if I can pick up on any RB breadcrumbs.

Skim of TSN makes me think he blocked BA N1, never even really paid attention to Cybele so I think even if I dont receive a "positive non-sk" result I dont see any way I was blocked. I think hascow blocked SG N3 so SL is pretty much in the clear too for being the SK to me.

I still think SK is one of Jahudo/Sierra

[LlamaFluff]

unvote, Vote ShadowGirl

Reading the thread again I think she actually could even be the last Jap mafia, even if you ignore a lot of the blanket scummy behavior that she has done for the most part of this game.

I came to the possible Jap conclusion given a lot of her interactions with Stef, who on multiple occasions was defended either outright, deflected away from or had implied guilt of.

First was the early stage comment of

CKD, I think you're taking Stef's vote too seriously. :/

which came shortly after Stef voted CKD for "asking questions". Once it started catching flak SG never commented on this quote again.

I don't think anything should be excused even if he is a new player. We can take into account that he is one, but that doesn't mean we should overlook scumtells.

@Stef: But I do think you should get a bit thicker skin, because you will encounter people who will not be quite so courteous. People will insult you, and you just have to deal with it.

This again is in relation to Stef. Here SG is trying to play both sides by trying to get people to let him off the hook slightly by playing the newbie card for him, while at the same time agreeing with the tells he has performed. There also is what seems to be a "suck it up" coaching line to Stef here. At this point in the game SG has a random out on Sera for being lurky. With the admission that Stef is playing scummy here (and even Tajos vanilla claim), I would assume the vote would be in a useful place.

Anyway, I'm taking Tajo's 'vanilla claim' and Seraphim not wanting to participate in random voting as null tells, as is Stef's joking statement of wanting to be lynched or a very weak scumtell.

Still, I find Tajo defending him rather odd and slightly scummy.

This one is just red flags all over the place. First, Tajo and Seras actions are null tells, which is amazingly hard to believe when you read this game. I personally was surprized Tajo lasted as long as he did. Stef is regarded as a weak scumtell though. Now at this point SG had just unvoted in the same post and does have Stef at scum, weak it may be but at scum. There is no vote for Stef though. It continues as calling Tajo scum for defending Stef. Now, player A defending player B is not scummy if you do not know either alignment. Player A having defendED player B who flipped scum is scummy though, and is reason to take a closer look at player A. Now - SG is using Tajo as A and Stef as B. Stef is being used to build up suspicion on Tajo, but neither player has flipped, so SG is essentially using unknown alignment (which she only has as slightly scummy) to call another unknown alignment scummy. This just seems like SG knew that Stef was scum and tried to use that to further other lynches before Stef was actually revealed.

Vote: Black Adder

I've been getting minor scum vibes ever since this snippet:

So, vote: populartajo. Since your scumminess relies on the assumption that you and tajo are partners, you'll be partially cleared if tajo flips town.

Hn, I think the quick hammer is a null tell at this point.

Now this is interesting. Both BA and SG did similar things D1, just SG did it a bit less blatantly then BA did. They both made a connection between tajo-stef that hinged partially on the other being scum. BA said that tajo town leans stef town, SG used stef scum so tajo scum. SG just jumps on BA though, and then lurks for most of the rest of the day.

Starting to get a bit worn out though, more tomorrow probably.

[LlamaFluff]

Your first two points: Basically that I was protecting Stef and trying to get attention off him? Anyway about the second quote (since I don't see the big deal about the first one) : at the time he was taking tings very personally - why shouldn't I tell him that the way he was going about it was not the right way? I am more leanient on newbies, but as I said that doesn't entirely excuse their behaviour. Not much else I can say on those points - you can view as such a way. However, do you think at such an early stage I would have risked my neck for him?

First yes, you seemed to be trying to defend Stef by firstly trying to counter the line of questioning CKD was starting, and secondly by trying to calm him down instead of taking a strong stance on the conversation that was occuring. Your post was more on a way to ignore the entire string of events, you completely fence sat on if Stef was scum, and tried to calm him down. Also nice WIFOM defense at the end there.

This one is just red flags all over the place. First, Tajo and Seras actions are null tells, which is amazingly hard to believe when you read this game. I personally was surprized Tajo lasted as long as he did. Stef is regarded as a weak scumtell though. Now at this point SG had just unvoted in the same post and does have Stef at scum, weak it may be but at scum. There is no vote for Stef though. It continues as calling Tajo scum for defending Stef. Now, player A defending player B is not scummy if you do not know either alignment. Player A having defendED player B who flipped scum is scummy though, and is reason to take a closer look at player A. Now - SG is using Tajo as A and Stef as B. Stef is being used to build up suspicion on Tajo, but neither player has flipped, so SG is essentially using unknown alignment (which she only has as slightly scummy) to call another unknown alignment scummy. This just seems like SG knew that Stef was scum and tried to use that to further other lynches before Stef was actually revealed.

I was playing with Tajo in another game, and his playstyle was very much the same so I didn't really see him as being overly scummy. So, what are you getting at with me saying they were null tells? One of those people did flip town, you know. You're exaggerating my post - nowhere do I deem him scum for defending scum. I say he is 'slightly' scummy. Neither do I say Stef is scum either, but merely exhibited a weak scumtell. So, all in all : you have majorly exaggerated what I said.

First of all, I dont see how someone claiming vanilla the way tajo did can ever be seen as a nulltell, hell even if someone like Nat did that I would be wanting them lynched. Now you are pulling the "well I was right" card on tajo flipping town, which I dont think surprised you. What you did do though is use Stef to incriminate Tajo in your 11th post. Since you saw tajo who you called town, slightly scummy for defending stef, who you also saw as town. In your 14 though, you change this around, and are trying to make Stef scum because tajo is scum, which gave you reasoning not to carry through with any case on Stef day 2. Much like BA was accused of doing.

Now this is interesting. Both BA and SG did similar things D1, just SG did it a bit less blatantly then BA did. They both made a connection between tajo-stef that hinged partially on the other being scum. BA said that tajo town leans stef town, SG used stef scum so tajo scum. SG just jumps on BA though, and then lurks for most of the rest of the day.

Where have I explicitely said that if one flipped scum that it meant the other was as well?

You implied this paring multiple times (your 11 and 14 are the best examples of this)

I also completely agree with what EA posted about how BA is not scum. It doesnt make sense as Greek, Jap or SK. BA is really town in my eyes right now thanks to Jebus' gambit he pulled.

[LlamaFluff]

@BA - How long untill you move your vote for self preservation?
@SL - Thoughts on SG?
@Massive/EA - Is SG or BA more likely scum?

[LlamaFluff]

What do you mean by that question?

Quite simple really, are you going to vote SG at deadline for self-preservation?

[LlamaFluff]

I don't necessarily agree with the EA/LF interpretation of BA's recent activities, and in any case, it's not enough to overcome the string of scummy Japanese-related things he's done. BUT he can only be Japanese in my mind -- SG could be either. Mathematically then I guess SG is more likely scum.

Giving an approaching deadline you probably should vote SG then since you think she is more likely scum then the player who appears to be deadline lynch bait.

BA should just vote SG already, sure its selfpreservation but when it gets scum lynched its worth it.

@Farside - If BA get lynched and flips scum will you at least take a closer look at SG for me tonight. This goes for the other BA voters as well, but farside a little more so.

[LlamaFluff]

BA should just vote SG already, sure its selfpreservation but when it gets scum lynched its worth it.

Do you think I'm scum beyond any doubt? (100%)

I would say above 90% sure. You fit as Jap pretty well, even without those connections though you are one of the scummiest players.

@Farside - If BA get lynched and flips scum will you at least take a closer look at SG for me tonight. This goes for the other BA voters as well, but farside a little more so.

But yet... you seem to entertain the possibility that BA could also flip scum. So, it seems you think that me and BA could possibly be scum buddies? What evidence do you have to support this? Also, I believe I refuted some of your points in 1108 that you haven't responded back to.

Replace scum with town, got your alignment confused with BAs for a bit there. Will respond to a few of your posts later, am in a little too much right now gamewise, with classes on top of that I have fallen behind in a couple games. Tomorrow I have no classes though so will have a response up then.

SL wagon is interesting though, I would support that before a BA one at this point if it comes down to it. SG wagon is much better though.

[LlamaFluff]

I would say above 90% sure. You fit as Jap pretty well, even without those connections though you are one of the scummiest players.

Without those 'connections' - really just Stef's, since I'm not aware of any others you've brought up - would you think I still fit as Japanese?

My point is even if we ignore the Jap connections you still look very scummy in isolation, and when there are multiple groups and you see someone scummy on connections AND scummy in isolation, they are by far the best lynch. I expect you to be Jap mafia at this point, but a Greek flip would be far from shocking.

[LlamaFluff]

When is our deadline? Four, five days from now?

Too soon, I have three games deadlined within two days of eachother. Will respond tonight no matter what.

@EA/BA - Will you consider moving your vote when we get closer to deadline?

[LlamaFluff]

First yes, you seemed to be trying to defend Stef by firstly trying to counter the line of questioning CKD was starting, and secondly by trying to calm him down instead of taking a strong stance on the conversation that was occuring. Your post was more on a way to ignore the entire string of events, you completely fence sat on if Stef was scum, and tried to calm him down. Also nice WIFOM defense at the end there.

I had no problems with the line of questioning (did I say anything of the sort?) and as to why I didn't discourage it. Having no prior playing experience with Stef, I didn't know if this was his typical behaviour (taking things so hard and all). As well, why shouldn't I calm him down? The way he was playing was detrimental to town. About the last part (as I explained to Jahudo) :

Of course, it's still a possiblity - I just meant in terms of percentages that it's more likely someone in such a case wouldn't have.

In your seventh post you push on CKD for overreacting towards Stef. In this post there is zero sense of encouraging the line of questioning towards Stef, but more of a defense of Stef given that you are trying not to counter the questions but the questioner. You also really didn’t pay a whole lot of attention to Stef apart from trying to get him to calm down, especially alignment wise. You mention him a few times near the end of the day but most of the attention you gave him was related to the question.

First of all, I dont see how someone claiming vanilla the way tajo did can ever be seen as a nulltell, hell even if someone like Nat did that I would be wanting them lynched. Now you are pulling the "well I was right" card on tajo flipping town, which I dont think surprised you. What you did do though is use Stef to incriminate Tajo in your 11th post. Since you saw tajo who you called town, slightly scummy for defending stef, who you also saw as town. In your 14 though, you change this around, and are trying to make Stef scum because tajo is scum, which gave you reasoning not to carry through with any case on Stef day 2. Much like BA was accused of doing.

As I've said before, I've played with Tajo before so I wasn't completely surprised with his theatrics, so no, I wasn't surprised that he flipped town. I didn't view Stef as town (and have not said so) - I viewed him as neutral - his behaviour was either scummy or very anti-town. As well, am I not allowed to change my views after a page and a half and more information has come to light? As well, my fourteenth dealt less with Stef-Tajo scum and more on the possiblity of Tajo being scum by himself (being that he was deflecting attention back onto stef).

Can you link me to the game or games where Tajo claimed vanilla town on page five and really was vanilla town? This view on him seem to be entirely meta based, and I really don’t want to get into the whole “antitown meta” argument in another game right now. If someone is scummy you lynch them. Now, you say that you thought Tajo was town given the way he played. You call him scummy in your 11 and 14 though, so I don’t get those conflicting reads. Also in your 12 you called Tajos move WIFOM, you never backed it up with a meta until just recently.

Now you are trying to explain the Stef-Tajo thing as Tajo was more likely scum by himself. This again goes against multiple things that you have just said because I thought Tajo-town was not at all surprising to you. Guess not. Also Stef-Tajo connection was looked at and you thought Tajo was scum deflecting onto his scum buddy? Getting really confused about your Tajo reads throughout the day, and trying to find out what they were makes me realize how much you ignored the whole thing.

You implied this paring multiple times (your 11 and 14 are the best examples of this)

Implied, yes. Not say 'if one flips scum the other must be'. If one flipped scum I would certainly take a closer look at the other, no doubt - but that did not gurantee the other to be scum.

This is different then what BA did, and what you voted him for how? I kind of wish Stef would of got vigged N2 instead so I could of seen you completely ignore Stef given that Tajo flipped town.

@BA - I will stop pestering you for now but I would much rather see SG lynched before you so when you arent doing anything to stop it im going up the walls a bit.

@Jahudo - Can you just vote BA already? Its beyond obvious that you are planning to.

[LlamaFluff]

BlakAdder's seeming unwillingness to shift his vote to save himself is bizarre, but town-looking.

My thoughts, pretty much. I'm more inclined to vote LF, really. I'm not really quite so sure we have a SK and not a second vig.

Anyway, since I'm at

L-1.

(Just in case anyone tries to pull the 'accidental hammer' thing.)

I'm a cop. I haven't breadcrumbed anywhere.

On night one, I investigate armlx: innocent.
Night two, Tar : (No result, he died.)
Night three : BA (I was blocked.)

I'll reply to LF later, after I eat lunch.

Wow, kill the lying scum now.

Not only did you investigate armlx (obv town N1), Tar (obv town N2), BA (got "blocked"), but you also never breadcrumbed, go no result when a player died (which I dont believe for a second) and are not faction specific?

One cop who could get a guilty on what is looking like nearly half of the game is so fabricated its not even funny.

[LlamaFluff]

I always seem to be kept around for this sole reason - I'm a fairly easy lynch. As far as not breadcrumbing, I didn't breadcrumb as doctor in Open 70 either.

Being lynchable does not make you town. Having not breadcrumbed in a past game does not mean we should let that part of a claim go.

Armlx seemed very pro-town to me, and such is this case that I usually turn the other way - so I figured I'd ensure that he was on town's side. I'd intended to investigate BA, but changed my mind at the last minute.

Dont pro-town players usually get, you know, nightkilled? Also as I have pointed out before, you had similar thought processes on Stef-Tajo as BA.

In my notes I see something about a possible Tar-Sierra team because of post 396, but I didn't elaborate on much else.

So you investigated Tar based on interactions with Sierra who as far as I can tell you never got a single read on?

And then I decided to investigate BA on night three, partially because of all his oppurtunistic voting, and the fact that my gut is usually half right.

What about how nearly everyone was in agreement that a vig should kill BA? Did that just get ignored?

As far as 'not getting a result' I was basically just told to go look at the thread and see his alignment there, which I consider not getting a result.

Investigative roles should ALWAYS get a result. It helps the player with any insanity issues they might have.

Not faction specific? What kind of point is that? I didn't realize we were playing in some topsy turvy game where pro-town roles had their alignments flipped.

So you would get a guilty on any Jap mafia, and Greek mafia and the SK? If it is a 4-4-1-1 setup and you got guilties on all mafia, that would make your role so unbelieveably powerful, especially with the watcher and doctor that it just isnt feasable. Maybe,

maybe

if this was faction specific it would be believeable, but it isnt. So it isnt.

Jahudo should either hammer or express belief in his next post.

[LlamaFluff]

Jahudo should either hammer or express belief in his next post.

Neither of the two things above

[LlamaFluff]

Being lynchable does not make you town. Having not breadcrumbed in a past game does not mean we should let that part of a claim go.

Did I ever say anything of the sort? As far as being 'lynchable', it was 'partially' bad play on my part, in the sense I was more concerned of making it through to the next day. And hopefully in that time as we purged town of scum, I would get some useful results. Do you think I'm happy that my results aren't useful?

Im a little confused here, it sounds like you are saying that you intentionally played slightly scummy so you would not get NKed and hope results or claim saved you when people finally decided to lynch you.

Dont pro-town players usually get, you know, nightkilled? Also as I have pointed out before, you had similar thought processes on Stef-Tajo as BA.

What about yourself, LF? I don't believe I've played with a game with you where you were town where you didn't get NKed. (Other then when you were scum.) And I've explained the 'similar thought process' thing in the post above. He wanted to eliminate suspicion.

Did you just imply im scum because im alive day four? This also in no way defends against the logic of investigating someone that you find pro-town.

So you investigated Tar based on interactions with Sierra who as far as I can tell you never got a single read on?

Correct. I inspect people based on my gut, and whom I can't get reads on. (As well as people whom I think are trying to look 'too town'. Not usually a reasoning I want to pull out, but does sometimes lead to something.)

Actually why did you not go back to BA here? You found him suspicious given how D2 played, yet you did not investigate him despite that and the suspicion of him on N1. Also why did Tar-town mean Sierra-town? Why Tar over Sierra?

What about how nearly everyone was in agreement that a vig should kill BA? Did that just get ignored?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't our vig claim on today, not yesterday? I don't think you can bring up the plan to exterminate him if it didn't happen at the time.

Most people were saying the vig should kill BA. Investigating someone in a three way tie for deadline lynch is a great way to get your investigation target killed. EA didnt claim untill today but there is no way I would of tried to check a player I saw as vig bait when it was apparent there was one out there.

Investigative roles should ALWAYS get a result. It helps the player with any insanity issues they might have.

As far as 'not getting a result' I was basically just told

to go look at the thread

and see his alignment there, which I consider not getting a result.

I consider that as not technically getting a result, but being told to go look at the front page and seeing him show up as town - I guess you could say I got an innocent on him. That's what I could take out of the PM I recieved.

I still dont like not getting a result either way, or even not requesting one just to be absolutely sure of sanity.

So you would get a guilty on any Jap mafia, and Greek mafia and the SK? If it is a 4-4-1-1 setup and you got guilties on all mafia, that would make your role so unbelieveably powerful, especially with the watcher and doctor that it just isnt feasable. Maybe, maybe if this was faction specific it would be believeable, but it isnt. So it isnt.

I would think it'd be the opposite. Wouldn't knowing the exact faction be more powerful, say, to perhaps help us out in a case like this where we want to erase one faction completely? But to answer your question, yes, I would get guilty on them.

Well lets just do this - Swordsmith (given that most Jap kills seem to use sword). Gets "knife carrier" on Jap, SK, (doctor-scalpel?). Gunsmith gets "has gun" on Greek, vig. Right there is a very crude way of having two investigating roles that pick up different factions and doesnt give it away right off the bat.

Underselling a role that can just keep clearing people is scummy too. Given the doctor + watcher you are impossible to touch without taking those two roles out or getting caught in the act. Also universal cop doesnt fit with what has flipped so far too much. Tracker/Watcher are the main investigative roles and I am the specific investigative one.

If we have to wait untill deadline for this lynch that is pretty depressing.

[LlamaFluff]

Did you just imply im scum because im alive day four? This also in no way defends against the logic of investigating someone that you find pro-town.

I said armlx seemed almost 'too town'. And secondly, yes, I did imply that you

could

be scum, not solely because of that, but that point is something that makes me wonder.

*Pulls up 'Too Townie' notes from ICing for use if needed*. Also I replaced N3... it wasnt even publically announced untill D4.

Actually why did you not go back to BA here? You found him suspicious given how D2 played, yet you did not investigate him despite that and the suspicion of him on N1. Also why did Tar-town mean Sierra-town? Why Tar over Sierra?

I hadn't really been following the game that much in day two, but BA seemed slightly better - I believe it was day three that most of his oppurtunistic votes happened. And no, it's opposite. I thought perhaps Tar-scum might Sierra-scum. Sierra seemed townier to me.

I have a hard time understanding Tar looked scummier then Sierra given that he was NKed, and he was a very believeable watcher gambit claim. Also I dont think BA looked townie D2, he just lurked out of the spotlight.

Most people were saying the vig should kill BA. Investigating someone in a three way tie for deadline lynch is a great way to get your investigation target killed. EA didnt claim untill today but there is no way I would of tried to check a player I saw as vig bait when it was apparent there was one out there.

So? That didn't mean he would be killed. I don't understand your second two points. How would my inspect get them killed? And you just said I should investigate someone who I would see as vig bait...? o_O

I would of bet big money on Rush or BA getting killed by the vig, and im shocked EA didnt kill either of them really. Someone must of though Rush dropped a PR tell or something to that nature. My point is as a cop with a KNOWN vig, you dont want to start investigating the most likely people to be killed.

I still dont like not getting a result either way, or even not requesting one just to be absolutely sure of sanity.

I considered that as pretty much getting an innocent result on him, but it was technically a no result. Would you like me to ask for clarification?

Yes. Are your results "not mafia" or "innocent"?

[LlamaFluff]

Hammer time yet?

[LlamaFluff]

Hammer time yet?

[LlamaFluff]

Didnt hit the SK (its not Sierra) so three kills is wierd.

Leaning to a Jahudo lynch right now but I need to reread with two Greek flips. Any luck Jebus?

[LlamaFluff]

Going to post a little as I think, it helps at times when I am trying to work things out as people spots logic errors

03- The Fonz (Niv (gorckat (Seraphim)))
05- LlamaFluff (Cybele)
06- Erratus Apathos
08- Jahudo (Ku_F)
14- Jebus
18- massive
23- Sierra

Interactions with greek are likely the easiest to pick up on. We can still assume Greek is alive too at this point.

EA is easy to eliminate as Greek, his kill method just killed Greek. This also confirms him as the vig. Jebus is the watcher and not Greek. Massive is not Greek given the BS wagon that was mostly Greek on him yesterday and xtoxm for that breif moment yesterday as well.

I also dont think that Jahudo is Greek, although he is bugging me a bit on a gut level a lot like Sierra was. The seeming to delay the hammer of SG yesterday made me think he wanted to be sure it was okay given how cautious he was there. However interactions between Electra and KuF make me think that he is not really Greek afterall.

This leaves Fonz and Sierra as Greek. I think I have to give it to Sierra to when you go back and look at the searching for connections. Sierra used quite a bit from Electra, and it all led to non-Greek players. While Fonz does work, its a much harder fit then Sierra is.

At this point I would put Sierra as the Greek, Jahudo as Jap damned if I know (massive/fonz just know not sierra/EA) as SK.

It should be obvious enough though that EA and Jebus are town, which is a good thing with as few alive as there are, the pool gets much smaller much quicker.

Vote Sierra

I will have more of a case up within a few days.

[LlamaFluff]

While Fonz does work, its a much harder fit then Sierra is.

Now where was this kind of reasoning yesterday when you were allying with Sierra to try to make out I was Greek?

With Electra alone you work better to me but how farisde/sl played I think sierra works a little bit better. Still close though, 70/30 or so.

At this point I would put Sierra as the Greek, Jahudo as Jap damned if I know (massive/fonz just know not sierra/EA) as SK.

The SK strikes me as pretty much a non-issue if you're genuine, since you'll be able to psych tonight, and that will narrow it right down.

I DO think Jahudo strikes me as lynch candidate no1 at this point.

This is why I would rather hunt for Greek/Jap in a lynch then the SK. Its already down to jahudo, massive, you and after tonight I should have it all wrapped up.

Also, remember: since we gave the SK the chance to come out, this means we now have to agree to lynch anyone claiming SK. Agreed?

Also: I demand a massclaim.

Yes and yes. I would personally say massive goes last though since I am pretty sure he is town, apart from that im more or less indifferent to the order of things.

[LlamaFluff]

Need to rethink a bit apparently... I missed the afformentioned intereactions but the rival niv-ba wagon was a bit concerning even though I thought how Sierra played was more aligned and building off Greek.

Massclaim is good though, I think Sierra/Fonz should start the massclaim

[LlamaFluff]

Hello. I watched The Fonz. Nobody targetted him.

Still wondering why we never got rid of massive.

Vote: Massive

What is massive? Greek is just about guarenteed in Sierra/Fonz so I would rather look there, if not there SK given that its not you, me, EA, Sierra.

I would say massclaim needs to happen... Fonz or Sierra should go first, no real prefrence which of them.

[LlamaFluff]

I'd rather go Fonz, Jahudo, massive, Sierra.

I could support this order

[LlamaFluff]

There has to be a way to make this work out right. I dont think there would be two doctors in a game, and according to the mod a faction doublekilling a player would register both methods in the night scene.

So here is my theory - One of Jahudo/EA is the SK, and the other is the vig. Cybele did target EA already, and I never got a message from that saying he was converted or anything to that matter, but also given how last night went I think my thing works more like a doctor then a cop in the sense that I wouldnt be told if it failed for any reason. Moving on to more theory - The SK is immune to NKs, and one of the mafia factions just tried to kill them last night. This is why we only had three kills instead of four.

Now, today we can try and lynch Greek. IF and only if we lynch greek. Then force out some night actions as follows. EA - Jahudo target eachother, I target Jahudo. In the event that Jahudo is the SK, he will turn town and get killed which would prove my role. EA would get killed unfortunately. Jebus I think would watch me in order to prevent the Jap mafia from killing me because if they did they would be caught. This would make it a me/massive/sierra or fonz alive for lylo most likely. Its a pretty brutal idea, but I think it works as at least a baseline for us to try and figure stuff out.

Any other ideas on it? I think there might be a forced win in here.

[LlamaFluff]

Thinking more what I said first only works if Jahudo is the SK, if he is vig it fails pretty badly since it leaves two anti town in four remaining alive. Maybe lynching one of the vig claims is the best move. It finds the SK beyond a shadow of a doubt which is good, although it can have the reprecussion of leaving a forced lynch tomorrow in the SK unless mafia wants to pick him off instead.

On the plus side though it does give mafia more incentive to cross kill instead of hunting town given a prisoners delimma type endgame that could easily occur from this sort of a setup.

Looking at Jahudo/EA though everything tells me that Jahudo is the vig

except

my role information. Right now I am trying to figure out if somehow EA can dodge a hit from me, I got roleblocked or what really. I just cant believe that EA is the vig and Jahudo is the SK given that first Jahudo had no real reason to claim, kills line up with Jahudo as vig more then EA, and even kill method sounds like Jahudo is the vig instead. Even three kills and speculation on a NK-immune SK point to EA being the SK since a vig would of been a prime target for mafia to hit.

Gah!

Working numbers now 7 alive, 6 alive tonight.

Best case we lynch SK leaving vig, watcher, psyc, and three vanillas with two mafia in there. vig would basically need to hit mafia though during the night for town to have a chance, either that or have mafia cross/double kill. Hell this is even a best case scenario.

If we lynch the vig though things stay around the same since it becomes obvious who the SK is and I dont think they would be able to have any other outs since EA killed N1 so its not like he can give up a kill for recruit immunity, and the RB and doctor are gone even though I doubt the doctor would of done anything to my move. I just dont get the way things are playing out coupled with my role information. Best case scenario we gain a free town member, worse case scenario I really am just a red-herring type role and the game is basically over with something anti-town winning barring both mafia dying at night.

If we lynch mafia we have still two anti-town roles, and I get another shot as a psyc to try and see if Jahudo is the SK. If he is and I pick him up for town it looks a little bit better since either of our flips confirms the other one as town given that he has uncountered kills after a massclaim and my role with a lack of his kill makes him confirmed town.

I really am not sure what to do here since almost anything is skating on thin ice as it is. Either way we cant afford a mislynch today, and whatever lynch looks the highest probablility to netting anti-town is what needs to be taken.

What we have for shots are
1) SK - EA or Jahudo 100% certainty
2) Greek - Fonz or Sierra 99.9% certainty
3) Jap - ??

So naturally I want to lynch one of the four mentioned above. Just dont know which one yet though. Need to reread the time around EA claiming, and look back through greek connections to see if I can start gaining some confidence on what the best thing to do is here. It just seems like we can actually power out a win if we play correctly.

[LlamaFluff]

There has to be a way to make this work out right. I dont think there would be two doctors in a game,

Is that what you become once the SK is turned into a vanilla? That's what the Wiki says under "Psychiatrist" but you are a "Psychologist" and there isn't a Wiki for that. It says Psychiatrists are linked so there has to be an SK. Do you think the Psychologist = Psychiatrist? Does anyone think a naive Psychologist/Psychiatrist is bastard modding or legit?

All I know is that im a Psychologist and was told targeting a SK would turn them into vanilla and I would be told when I was successful. I dont think there is such thing as a naive obscure role and would be really pissed off if thats what I was, or if it was two vigs and I was a red herring role to mess with the town.

and according to the mod a faction doublekilling a player would register both methods in the night scene.

Who said that and where?

I PMed the mod to get an answer to that before my first idea post.

The SK is immune to NKs, and one of the mafia factions just tried to kill them last night.

It would have had to of been the last remaining greek. Since the greeks went into night with 3 people, maybe SL or farside tried to send their kill but it didn't work because they got killed first? Or maybe they thought that killing EA was more important. From their POV, EA wouldn't be greek, jap (he already NK'ed one), or SK (if they believed you).

Right, this again is another thing that points to EA-SK which really is messing with me given that my role is saying he isnt.

Now, today we can try and lynch Greek. IF and only if we lynch greek.

Why if and only if greek? They both have 1 now right?

Greek has to be between two people so it makes more sense to look there. EA and you are killing roles, Jebus is a watcher, massive doesnt fit after that BS wagon yesterday and im the psych. Just leaves two people to fill that slot.

Then force out some night actions as follows. EA - Jahudo target eachother, I target Jahudo.

This is probably the best solution.

Not if EA is SK though as I found out when I started running scenarios since it just about forces a town loss.

What do people think of my farside and springlullaby reads? I disagree with this:

thinking about it gets you into a blatant Wifom situation, so I choose to avoid that.

Because I believe that more often than not scum will support a town lynch that A) doesn't contradict the scum's prior statements and B) is already wagoned with town members. They don't have to vote like opportunistic scum but they should show more enthusiasm than farside and SL did towards Niv.

I actually do see your point on this one, trying to calculate if actions towards Niv or actions from Sierra are the bigger tell and I still am pretty conflicted over the two.

[LlamaFluff]

*sigh*

I reread the area of the game where EA claimed vig, I looked over the NKs and compared them to ongoing discussion from the players and from the town and Jahudo seems to really be the vig. I just dont get how EA is the SK though without me being unknowingly blocked, ineffective or some other role somehow screwed with my night actions.

Ive been running through the scenarios and if the SK really is NK immune, they are the top priority over any other role. Even if we mislynch the vig I can at least attempt to target the SK tonight, with any luck it would work this time, and worst case scenario we have confirmed anti-town tomorrow right off the bat.

Vote EA

[LlamaFluff]

Greek has to be between two people so it makes more sense to look there. EA and you are killing roles, Jebus is a watcher, massive doesnt fit after that BS wagon yesterday and im the psych. Just leaves two people to fill that slot.

If either Fonz or Sierra is greek, then wouldn't the last jap be either massive or Fonz/Sierra that isn't greek? Then I understand what you're saying that we have the best chance at finding mafia in Fonz/Sierra.

When I am looking for Greek mafia I can eliminate you and EA due to you two being vig/SK. Jebus is the watcher which is proven or the most amazing lucky guess from scum ever. Massive I dont think is Greek after the wagon that farside and SL tried to start on him yesterday on the weakest reasoning possible. That just leaves Fonz and Sierra from process of elim.

I dont have any solid reasoning to eliminate Massive from being Jap mafia, so its in that trio that I see the last Jap mafia. 1/2 is better odds then 1/3 if we are going to insist on mafia hunting over Sk hunting.

I just dont get how EA is the SK though without me being unknowingly blocked, ineffective or some other role somehow screwed with my night actions.

You've probably already answered this, but have you gotten PM's saying this guy isn't SK each time? Was night 1 any different? I'll admit that getting RB'ed sounds more realistic than naive psy or red herring psy.

I just got a target list when I replaced in, and my investigations havent gotten anything more then an acknowlagement from the mod. It leads me to believe that I wouldnt be told when I was roleblocked for that reason, when I asked if I got confirmation on being blocked I got the typical "cant say" response.

Even if we mislynch the vig I can at least attempt to target the SK tonight, with any luck it would work this time, and worst case scenario we have confirmed anti-town tomorrow right off the bat.

There shouldn't be anything to stop you now unless getting killed prevents you from using a power. And it will give us an extra town, meaning an extra vote tomorrow.

Exactly why I want an SK lynch. I am pretty sure that the SK doesnt have any way to dodge my conversion appart from interaction with other roles. Getting killed shouldnt prevent me from using a power but im just trying to map out any possible scenario, if for some reason I die and the SK stays SK they are outed in this situation.

[LlamaFluff]

^^^I endorese the above product^^^

unvote
vote Fonz

[LlamaFluff]

Fonz is at L-1. We should have more talk about who is greek and jap in people's eyes. I'm not sure which of Sierra and massive is more likely Fonz.

Llama: can you post you're Sierra case in fulll?

Reading interactions I would be shocked if Fonz wasnt Greek given how much the wagon on massive defended him during D4, a wagon that was supported primarily of Greek and called stupid by everyone else.

That makes either Sierra or Massive Jap, and the distiction there is pretty hard given that they both were lurky and for the most part ignored the dead Jap members (and vice-versa).

If I had to pick I would lean Sierra as the Jap mafia member just barely given that her early suspicions in the game really included no greek scum, but there were occassional mentions of Jap mafia, mixed in with town as secondary suspects. The entire game she never voted for any of the dead Jap mafia, but apparently bought the "smiley meta" that was used against Stef and called him suspect for it. Also she called sek suspect for defending stef with kuf.

I would just recommend sticking to the plan since I am fairly sure that massive is town just given how he has played. PoE basically makes Fonz/Sierra as the last mafia, and in the event that Massive is mafia, a vig of Sierra tonight (who also becomes forced Greek if Fonz flips town) would leave Massive as the last scum since the SK will be vanilla tomorrow.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote EA

Should be obvious what I am. Your choice who wins since EA is NK immune even though I think thanks to a wierd win condition this is a draw or everyone loses thing

[LlamaFluff]

http://www.quicktopic.com/42/H/7fMQEBeMspgm

my QT, which turned into my notes.

I killed farside thinking she was the vig and Jahudo was Greek, that one really panicked me at day scene.

[LlamaFluff]

Seriously, Llama if you're not scum the way you're playing really pisses me off, because it only took me, like, five minutes to look all of that up. And that little lot couldn't be more obviously a bus if it were red, had two decks, a driver, a conductor and an advert on the side saying 'God probably doesn't exist. Now stop worrying and get on with your lives.'

I actually was convinced that you were the last Greek near the end of the day, and almost everything I said scumhunting wise there was exactly what I was thinking. In a situation like farside was where massive said something that was

not

scummy and he was my partner in a potential mylo, with targets like BA and SG already obvious, I didnt buy a bus at all.

Sure I thought SL was on that wagon too for some reason, not sure why, but was getting preoccupied in trying to figure out a way to controll either the SK or vig kill since if I could land on a different target it introduced the three player endgame.

This is the same reason I didnt kill last night, if there were no x-kills, then it was a two player endgame and EA won. I wanted to keep my shot alive, although admittedly it was wierd submitting "no kill" N5.

[LlamaFluff]

Hold on, near the end couldn't Jahudo have vigged LF? Since technically there was a way to revert his majority? Not that he doesn't deserve to win. <3

He reached his win condition at twilight and I wouldn't have reached mine until night. Note to self: Never trust scum when they try to bargain a draw

I actually wasnt sure since it was something like "can not be reverted" and what percent of zero is zero