Vote Count Analysis: How Do You Do it?

[gob]

VCA is rather simple

There are four-five outcomes of every wagon in standard setups

1. town mislimmed with no wolves on wagon
2. town mislimmed with wolves on wagon
3. mafia limmed with wolves on wagon
4. mafia limmed with no wolves on wagon
5. no votes (sometimes)

The goal of VCA is to try and figure out what the mafia did and why.

For instance, if a townie is mislimmed on a wagon day 1, with like 70% of the players on it, then the chances of a mafia being on the wagon is high.
FURTHERMORE (and this is the most important part), if the mafia ISNT on the wagon day 1, then the lims day 2 (along with NKA) then the off-wagon PoE is made small.

So basically, day 1 the lim happens. You make a read on which of the 4 outcomes you believe happened.
You basically have to believe and follow in that outcome as if its fact, as you can readjust later with better info. (if you dont die)

So with VCA you’re standing on one assumption looking at these four outcomes. You can stand on one assumption for ONE ingame DAY, any longer and the game can get away from you.


VCA’s biggest weakness is mafia teams who bus early. The mafia has to convert their vote-control with an extra member into town-control with credit for their towny plays.

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This is the basic guide to VCA. These are the most likely outcomes, but only like 60% of the time. You cant assume things will go this swingly

Day 1 wagon townie mislim = at least one mafia on the wagon. The wagon that died for the mislim is more often than not, a wolf. Especially if the night kill is on the Day 1 mislim wagon.

So day 1 mislim -> day 2 lim the counter wagon that stinks the most -> wolf lim -> use outted wolf to find others.

If the day 1 is a correct lim on a wolf, in a game with 2 wolves or less, the remaining wolf is almost always either off-wagon or one of the last 3 people to hop on the scum-wagon.
In a game of 3 wolves or more, you need to prepare for bussing more. I cant really speak on this particular game scenario a lot cause I don’t understand it as well.

I think in big wolf games with early wolf-wagons, unless there was some role-action schenanigans, its almost certainly a bus. In 20p+ games, my playstyle is completely ineffective. So i am open for help here.

[gob]

thanks!

a couple questions

First, can you elaborate some on how you came to learn these practices for performing and reasoning about VCA?

My friend explained it to me, and i put it into practice myself.

Also,
> For instance, if a townie is mislimmed on a wagon day 1, with like 70% of the players on it, then the chances of a mafia being on the wagon is high.

Wouldn't it always be 50% + 1? Or are you counting everyone who appears on the wagon at all, even if they leave?

Overall, I'm looking for more context on how you infer whether mafia were on a town mislim or not.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by 50% + 1, but yes it does just indicate in that direction.

I'm only counting the people on the wagon when it hammers for this instance.

To determine whether or not mafia was on the wagon mislim or not. In almost all instances they are, its just how games play out on average. There are many ways to reach the conclusion (i usually just draw on my experience and what it 'feels' like. If i were to explain it and get other people on my wagon, then I would probably talk about the person's votes and how they dont come from a towny place).

If you use meta, you can also super-trap people. For example, certain players will commonly be on the end of a townie mislim wagon when they roll scum. Others will jump on a townie early and case them, and end up being the first or second on that wagon when it hammers.

VCA essentially cuts the game into pieces. After the day 1 lim, you have five outcomes. You can pretty easily infer (and if you're good and experienced, straight up know) which outcomes are impossible or not.
For example, if you have a strong feeling based on how the thread moved that there is multiple mafia off the mafia off the main wagon, you can ignore the outcomes that contradict that. So from the 5 outcomes, if you only deem 3 viable, then you solve each of those 3 "worlds" simultaneously. Or you can just solve the 'world' you find most likely (which is what I usually do cus im a lazy player).

But you want to keep these 'worlds' separate. Reads from one should not intersect with the other (until the day resolves at least), or else you'll confuse yourself since you're trying to solve the mafia team from different angles.

So VCA points you in the direction to look. Then you have to make actual reads on the players indicated by VCA.

Now there are instances, especially in smaller 9p games, where VCA does completely indicate one person as mafia. When a mafia is limmed day 1, its very common for the remaining mafia to have never voted their partner. Even doubly so if the person was scumreading the limmed-mafia without placing a vote. When the numbers get small, vca can only indicate one player. Usually the sole player off-wagon.

[gob]

Easy. VCA is making up shit that vaguely looks beneficial for what you want and push it with all the confidence in the world.

See that’s what I thought…

It’s definitely not that.