Read Your Role Mafia - Game Over

[Kinetic]

Hi, I R New Replacement

I R have fun.

Incoming.

[Kinetic]

Ok, just got my role, making some adjustments from my reads and getting a clarification from PJ.

[Kinetic]

Got the clarifications, putting the final touches on my wall of text.

[Kinetic]

Two Notes in the Rules:

4.) There are at least four different alignments (i.e. win conditions) in this game.

5.) All nightkills will have the flavor of “shot”. If a player is shot multiple times, the flavor will still be simply “shot”. If a player is told they will “strangle somebody unto death”, the official flavor will still be “shot”.

There are three issues in the game that need to be resolved as I see it:

First:
Looking over the game and what I know, I can think of about 4 ways the game can be:
2 Mafias (2 each)(Mafia A, Mafia B), 6 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia(2 or 3), 1 SK, 6 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia(2 or 3), no SK, 7 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia (2 or 3), something I can't figure out (Cult, another survivor?), 6 townies, 2 survivors

I'm saving my analysis here until I get my role.

Second:
Caboose dilemma-
There are four possibilities:
1, Caboose is lying, he is a full vig, and has killed every night.
2, Caboose is lying, he is a SK, and has killed every night
3, Caboose is not lying, there is not another killing role and there is some other reason for the N1 and N3 kills. (I believe there currently is some dispute over the Day 1 kill, if it could be a modkill, but I can't figure anything out to account for N3 among the claimed roles)
4, Caboose is not lying, there is another scum group (either another mafia or SK), Caboose's kill mirrored one of the scum group's kills. (see special rule 5, quoted above)

As I see it:

1: Highly unlikely, in my personal opinion this happening is at best 1%. If he claims this now it is most likely a smoke screen for:

2: If he claims full vig I would say there is a 80-90% chance he is actually a Serial Killer. Overall I give this chance being about 30% overall.

3: Again, a very highly unlikely event. If there is a way to account for the N3 kill this could go up, but at best I would say this is, at best, a 10-15% chance of happening.

4: In my opinion this is the most likely occurrence. However, this also could be a smoke screen as well. Of all the choices, I give this about a 40-45% chance of being what is going on.

Third:
Elektra's role-
Some things stick out at me. At this point it looks like Sensfan was the liar in the Sera/Elektra are telling the truth, however I'm not so sure...

Second, what Elektra just stated has me wondering a few things. There is the Mafia B possibility (with Sera and Emp being both Mafia B), but that isn't actually what is bothering me the most. What is bothering me is this part:

Wouldn't Seraphim have the same alignment as Sens if he were Mafia, though? (mafia-aligned)

First, this wouldn't make sense, because if this is thought in the same way then all "Self-Aligned" players would also be considered "one-alignment".

In this possibility only three alignments are accounted for. Where would the fourth alignment be?

But something is sticking out to me, its sort of an out there possibility but... what if Sera and Electra are Mafia A? Or what if Electra and Sens are both Mafia B?

Where this whole thing was cooked up as a gambit with the following contingencies:

IF Sera and Electra are scum buddies:

The town completely believes the claim, Sensfan turns up town (that is where the lynch seemed to be heading, and I know Sens was in fact scum, but Elec/Sera scum in thi situation wouldn't.), town lynches either of Sera or Elektra finds them scum, and virtually clears the other. (Sera is lynched, Elektra is cleared as no matter what Sens turns up as, they're different alignments. Elektra is lynched Sera is believed town because of gambit. Works even better since Sens would have been from the other mafia faction)

Town disbelieves the claim, lynches Elektra, either Sera or Sens or both are felt as town. Effectively this is the worse of the two scenarios.

Either of them is NKed, the other comes out better and pretty much considers themself confirmed.

IF Electra and Sens are scum buddies, then:

The town completely believes the claim, Sensfan turns up scum, town clears Electra, but Sera is still under scrutiny, he could be town or SK/Survivor.

Town disbelieves the claim, lynches Elektra, either Sera or Sens or both are felt as town. Effectively this is the worse of the two scenarios.

Either of them is NKed, the other comes out better and pretty much considers themself confirmed.

--------

Anyway, I wrote all of this before I received my role PM just from a quick cold read and some targeted reads.

Since it seems everyone wants me to role claim: I'll go ahead and try and give as much about my role without quoting.

I'm the Blind Targeting Mason

I also know that Yaw was the Deaf Searching Mason, and apparently we had an odd ability that we knew who the other was, but that we needed to find a place to meet without communicating it in private. Basically at night we both sent a target in but I could not target myself or Yaw, and if we chose a target of the same faction then we'd both be allowed to send one message to the mod, who would then relay that message to the other mason, but since one of us was deaf and the other was blind the message would not be exactly as we sent it.

Additionally in our special notes it said that on death of the first mason that they would not be revealed, but after the second died only the second role would be revealed. I'm assuming that if my role was revealed that Yaw's name would show up "[deleted]" and possibly set up for someone else to claim the "other" mason.

It also said in my special notes that most of our message would be kept intact, just the mod would remove anything that could be used to plan our next targets.

Since learning of this I did a re-read of Yaw and RG/Tamuz, but couldn't learn anything from it. :/ Additionally I was told by the mod that Yaw and RG/Tamuz never connected with each other.

My characters targets were Ooba in N1, Sensfan in N2, and no target was chosen on N3 (I'm assuming since Yaw was dead and all Tamuz decided not to do it).

At this point I can still target at night, if you guys want me to and someone can track it or something, but otherwise as far as I can tell my power is useless at this point.

-----

Now that I have this information I'm going to use what I know here plus what I've figured out from before and try and get a grasp on both how I think the final 5 are situated and see if I can figure out who is who.

Based on what I wrote up earlier:
2 Mafias (2 each)(Mafia A, Mafia B), 6 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia(2 or 3), 1 SK, 6 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia(2 or 3), no SK, 7 townies, 2 survivors
1 Mafia (2 or 3), something I can't figure out (Cult, another survivor?), 6 townies, 2 survivors

I think we can figure that most likely the third option and fourth option are not this game.

So, as I see it there are three possibilities, and two out of the three of them are not good for the town right now. First I make the following assumptions:

1) There are exactly 2 killing groups.
2) One of those Killing groups is Mafia B
3) The other killing group is either Mafia A or SK, but both cannot be there.

The only scenarios I can see are:

The final five are 1 mafia (linked with other dead), 1 SK, and 3 townies.
2 mafia (Mafia A), 3 townies
or 1 SK and 4 townies.

Now I'm going to go over each scenario and describe both what I think and who is most likely to be what in each scenario.

First scenario:

1 mafia, 1 SK, 3 townies:
This is by far the worst case for town. If we don't lynch either the mafia or the SK in this situation we're going to just have to pray for cross kills. Even if we lynch one of them, we go into the final day in a Mexican Standoff.

If this scenario is true, then as I see it, this is the spread:

First: If Electra is telling the truth then
Electra, Emp, and Sera are all town, thus, Caboose and myself must be mafia or SK each.


Second: If Electra is lying, then
Then most likely Electra is either SK or mafia. I would bet on mafia, as my previous statements, so she would be the last remaining one:
If this is the case, then Empking, myself, or Caboose would be the SK. I would put my money on Caboose.

Thus: The only way for this case (1 mafia, 1 SK, 3 townies) to be is if Electra is lying.

Second scenario:

2 Mafia, 3 townies
If this scenario is true then, if Electra is telling the truth then:
Either Mafia A is Sera/Empking or Myself/Caboose.
Thus, if we lynch one of the above and they come back Mafia A, then the other HAS to be the other mafia.


If Electra is lying then we have:
Electra is mafia, and among Sera, Emp, myself and Caboose is the other mafia.

In this case, I sincerely doubt Caboose is mafia. This is also the only case I'll accept that Caboose is actually a Full Vig and not a SK. This is, as far as I'm concerned, one of the better chances for town. Even though we're in LyLo in this situation, we have an easier time of finding the mafia.
In a choice between Empking and Sera, I am leaning toward Sera as being the other mafia.

Third scenario:

1 SK and 4 townies
If Electra is telling the truth, then:
Caboose is the Serial Killer.

If she's lying, then Electra is the Serial Killer. If we lynch one of them, they turn up town, and there is only one kill at night then we can assume that there is either only one scum alive or its a standoff between killing roles. Either way, the other one is the SK.

Now, pulling all of these things together, and adding some personal probabilities, I come up with this list, of people, from the most scummy to the least scummy:

Caboose: In case 1 and 3 he is the most likely to be the SK. I find his likeliness of being mafia very low. The only way I can see it is possibly a Caboose/Electra pair, but even that is low.
Electra: Obvscum if lying, but town if not. Its a hard decision. I rank her above Sera though for reasons explained below.
Empking: Bit of a wild card. I can't rule him out in many cases, but I can't pin where I think he would be. I'm placing him above Sera because I'm more unsure of him.
Sera: At this point Sera's only likely scenario of being scum is if Electra is lying, thus the most likely case I can find is contingent on someone else being scum. I think there was only one contingency that Sera could be scum without Electra being scum.

Thus, I'm confused as to why Caboose must wait for me to role claim before he role claims...

If his role claim doesn't specifically mention me, I'm going to be very very suspicious.

Either way, I believe the best play is to lynch Caboose. I don't believe his 1-shot Vig ability in the slightest, and I think he's the most likely person alive to be scum.

I'm going to wait until his "big reveal" though before voting him. I'm waiting with bated breath...

[Kinetic]

I'm... not sure...

But Caboose makes a very good point... Empking or Sera would be the better play in this situation IF Electra is telling the truth.

Because if Electra is not lying then Sera/Emp HAVE to be Mafia A and there is No SK.

But if Electra is lying, then Caboose/Electra could be Mafia A, or either could be SK or Electra and anyone could be Mafia A.

IF there is a Mafia A then I'm almost positive we can rule out there being a Serial Killer. There are only two killing roles in this game UNLESS some crazy occurance that we've had a double kill every night: The odds of which are (2/13 N1, 1/5 N2, 2/7 N3, which comes out to less than a 1% chance of happening (1/113.75 exactly)).

However, Caboose could still be part of Mafia A in that situation, and the only person who can be his partner is Electra.

If Caboose is a SK though, then the only possibility that the game doesn't end, is frankly, either Electra or myself is scum. In that situation either Electra is not scum and has true results on Sera/Emp and I'm the scum (obviously impossible from my point of view) or Electra is scum and faking results preparing for end game.

However, I CANNOT imagine a three NK game, the odds of it are so far out... The only way it could be possible is if one of the scum factions has not been making their kill...

And the fact that Caboose is claiming credit for three Night Kills proves there is either A) One enemy faction (meaning the last person MUST be Mafia B) -OR- B) That Caboose is part of a Night Killing faction, being either SK or Mafia A.

I'm still leaning heavily to Caboose, but I want to hear from Empking. He's been very... flighty... If there is just a SK left, then Caboose is the best play. If there is a SK/Mafia B, he is the best choice, if there is a Mafia A, then he is the best choice...

The ONLY way I can see that Caboose is NOT the best play is if there is a SK/Mafia B left and then the best choice is either him or Electra, as they're equally the best two choices...

Yea, the more I think about it the more sure that Caboose is the best play...

This role block thing is... odd. I don't know where it is coming from because the only way a role block I could think as possible is if there is two of the same mafia faction left. Every mafia roleblocker role I've ever read the roleblocker HAD to give up their kill... So a RB with not kill is a pretty good thing. The ONLY possibility of a RB and Kill taking place this night is if we don't kill one of Mafia A and in THAT case they've already won.................

I don't like that argument from Electra. It sounds like a red herring.

[Kinetic]

Vote:Caboose

Re-read my own stuff, and I trust my gut and logic on this one. Caboose is the right play.

[Kinetic]

Kinetic, I'm obviously not lying, since my role has been verified.

Please point me to where the mod verified your role, because I didn't see it.

Maybe your role is true. If that's so then the game is over with Caboose's death. If it isn't, then either

A) You made one hell of a gambit (assuming that Caboose turns up Mafia A and you are scum with him.)
Or B) You are mafia B (assuming Caboose shows up SK), and you KNEW Sensfan would show up as something different then anyone but your other scum buddy charter.

Why would Mafia have such a convoluted role, and why would Mafia claim when I did, anyway?

If you're mafia, then you're either Mafia A and made a gambit or Mafia B, and thus knew Sens was not the same as another, and in fact you made a strong play, but one where you would know the outcome. Either you look good or Sens looks good, but Mafia B makes a great play and gets someone in to win the game. If Sens survived to today, you could prob win the game without lynching him.

Why do you think Mafia A would be more likely to be me and Caboose, than Seraphim and Empking?

Killing. IF Mafia A has a killing role, then Caboose MUST be part of it. The only person who Caboose can be mafia with is either myself or you. I'm not it, so it has to be you.

Why do you ask. Because ASSUMING you are not mafia A, then you clear Sera/Emp to be part of the same group. Thus they are either Mafia A without a Night Kill or both townies. Thus, the scum MUST be myself and Caboose in this situation. I know I am a townie, THUS either Caboose is a SK or if there is a Mafia A, you are the ONLY person who can be part of Mafia A with him.

Honestly, if there _is_ a Mafia A, then I would lean towards it sharing a kill with Mafia B (alternating night kills) rather than each having their own kill simply because of how they're named.

Makes no sense. I'm not sold on the fact there is a Mafia A either, but that just makes no sense.

[Kinetic]

Vote:Caboose

Re-read my own stuff, and I trust my gut and logic on this one. Caboose is the right play.

*sigh*
Waiting for a quick hammer from Empking.

You know what guys, I'm not going to take this. This was my first game as vig, and I did my part and I think I used my night action well. I killed 3 anti-town for three nights in a row, and look what I get for it. I just couldn't pick up the slack for the town who was SOMEHOW struggling to grow a pair and lynch Sens. I don't deserve this loss, I made logical arguements, I pointed out Mafia A, I killed off Mafia B, and look at what I get... lynched. I even sat and took notes on all you guys. Yeah, that's right. I sat and I thought out my kills instead of just killing off the lurkers and it turns out that I had a good shot. But NO. I get lynched because of the "Lynch all Liars!!!!111" stupid arguement. And you can all sit and say "this is an appeal to emotion." Guess what, it is.


I need some sleep...

Empking/Sera cannot be Mafia A. That stopped being possible as soon as you claimed for all the kills.

They could be a cult I suppose, but Mafia A is impossible unless they some how don't have a kill. Cult is the only scum group I can think of that doesn't have a kill, would show up as the same alignment, and let your little fantasy survive. We know PJ's feelings on cults, so they'd have to have some other type of ability and not a recruit ability or something...

Would be a very odd role, I admit, and not something I can completely rule out in this game, but its much more likely that there is a SK or another mafia and that you are it/you are in it.

[Kinetic]

Vote:Caboose

Re-read my own stuff, and I trust my gut and logic on this one. Caboose is the right play.

*sigh*
Waiting for a quick hammer from Empking.

You know what guys, I'm not going to take this. This was my first game as vig, and I did my part and I think I used my night action well. I killed 3 anti-town for three nights in a row, and look what I get for it. I just couldn't pick up the slack for the town who was SOMEHOW struggling to grow a pair and lynch Sens. I don't deserve this loss, I made logical arguements, I pointed out Mafia A, I killed off Mafia B, and look at what I get... lynched. I even sat and took notes on all you guys. Yeah, that's right. I sat and I thought out my kills instead of just killing off the lurkers and it turns out that I had a good shot. But NO. I get lynched because of the "Lynch all Liars!!!!111" stupid arguement. And you can all sit and say "this is an appeal to emotion." Guess what, it is.


I need some sleep...

Empking/Sera cannot be Mafia A. That stopped being possible as soon as you claimed for all the kills.

They could be a cult I suppose, but Mafia A is impossible unless they some how don't have a kill. Cult is the only scum group I can think of that doesn't have a kill, would show up as the same alignment, and let your little fantasy survive. We know PJ's feelings on cults, so they'd have to have some other type of ability and not a recruit ability or something...

Would be a very odd role, I admit, and not something I can completely rule out in this game, but its much more likely that there is a SK or another mafia and that you are it/you are in it.

Really?

Keep your words in your notes, because you'll be eating them post game.

Less than 1%. That is the odds of there being a third killing role in this game. Against the odds of you being a scum (which is around 65% in my opinion)

The ONLY case I can see of you really being a vig is that there is no other mafia, and there is only Mafia B as scum, that means there MUST be a third mafia person, and the only person THAT can be is Electra.

[Kinetic]

Kinetic, your suspicions of me are complete BS, either you are scum or you are just ignoring everything that happened this game.

You're not looking at this logically. You're also not looking at it from my point of view.

Look at it as if you were me: This is what I know. I know my own role. I know that there is at least one scum left. I also know that IF there is another scum team with a Kill, it is virtually impossible that Caboose is NOT on this team. The likelihood is SO remote that it isn't even worth more than a cursory consideration.

Thus:

Case A) There is a Mafia A.
Caboose MUST be in it as he is claiming credit for all the kills that could be attributed to Mafia A.
Empking and Sera cannot be in it. Based both on play (Caboose has shown willingness to vote them in effectively LyLo) and logic (Electra claims that they are of the same faction. The only way this can be is either 1) they are both mafia A, which is impossible if Caboose must be in mafia A, or 2) That they are both town, or 3) They are some other faction that is the same alignment.
THUS, the only possible scum partners for Caboose, who must be in Mafia A, are either myself or you. I know I'm not his scum partner, so it MUST be you in this case.

Either way, Caboose is the common link, and he is the best play.

Case B) There is a SK, no other mafia (either A or B)
Caboose must be the SK. Unless the SK has not killed all game, or the hugely remote chance that he double killed all game. I also cannot imagine three killing roles in a balanced mini, but that is neither here nor there.

Thus, Caboose is the best play in this case.

Case C) There is a SK and a Mafia B member left.
In this case, Caboose must be the SK. The Mafia B member must be either myself or Electra.
If Electra is telling the truth, I am Mafia B.
If Electra is lying, then she is Mafia B.

Thus, in this case, Caboose is the best play. He's the only pretty much confirmed scum.

Case C) There is only a Mafia B left, and there is no other scum roles
Personally, I think this is a very remote chance. But even so, this would be the only case where Caboose is not the best choice. In this case, the only people who could be that person is either myself or you.

It can be you because as part of Mafia B, you would know Sens's alignment and thus know he is not the same alignment as anyone in game except yourself and your other scum buddy. Thus you can safely say, no matter WHAT Sera's alignment is, that his alignment is different from Sens. You don't choose yourself because if you show you're different from Sera and Sera shows up town, you have some explaining to do.

Based on play, the whole back and forth between you and Sens really could be the two of you trying to sell that you're not the same faction. Thus no matter who dies of the two of you, the other makes out like a bandit. If you get lynched and turn up scum then Sens plays the "he was obv scum trying to get a free lynch of two townies", while if Sens dies you are 'virtually confirmed'.

Either way, in the end the if we lynch Caboose in this case, then the game doesn't end. And the only people who can be Mafia is either you or me.

THUS, in 3 out of the 4 possibilities, the best play is to lynch Caboose, and in the fourth possibility lynching Caboose doesn't lose us the game. In other cases not lynching Caboose; however, does have the chance of losing us the game.

Please explain to me how I would know what I knew if I were scum,

I did. Read Case C.

and why I would claim when I did if I were scum.

Your timing is... indeed a little odd. But then again, that is what a gambit is all about. If there isn't any risk involved then it isn't a gambit, is it? Plus, if you revealed your role at a different time it wouldn't have the impact it does now.

Overall, your own argument as to why you are the 'most confirmed role' here is the best argument for why you claimed when you did.

I'm pretty much the most confirmed role here, and you are failing to see this.

No, I see how this can be seen. I'm just being a skeptic. I'm trying to find all of the possibilities, and if you are telling the truth, then there is exactly one possibility, Caboose is the last scum and the game is over.

If I thought otherwise, I would be voting otherwise.

Also, there have been plenty of Mafia games where there are two Mafia that alternate night kills, it's not the standard, but neither is anything else in this game. Are you even reading my posts? What about them is scummy? It's possible Caboose is the an SK but it's impossible for him to be Mafia A.

True, it is certainly possible that there is some alternate killing method, but I don't buy it. It seems too imbalanced in the favor of town, heavily, and although this game is odd I certainly don't think it is imbalanced.

As for your view of Caboose, I completely disagree. My logic is flawless in this case. If you can't see it, the only thing I can assume is that you are scum trying to save the game for yourself.

The other thing is that lynching Empking is obviously the better play in terms of probabilities, if you're just going to ignore everything that happened in this game.

How? Please explain this to me, because none of the arguments that Caboose have made make sense.

The ONLY way that Empking is the better play is if he has a possibility of being Mafia A. According to your own "supposed role" he CANNOT be the Serial Killer. He also CANNOT be Mafia B. And I have proven he cannot be Mafia A using logic.

The ONLY way he is mafia A is in the very unlikely chance there is an alternating kill method and I. Do. Not. Buy. That.

[Kinetic]

If you don't know why Emp cannot be Mafia B, its because of your own claim. He cannot be Mafia B because of your own case. Sens is not the same as Sera who is the same as Emp, thus Emp cannot be the same as Sens, who is Mafia B.

You've virtually cleared Empking, how can you then vote him? If you're confirmed then Empking is cleared.

Additionally, if you still believe this:

Wouldn't Seraphim have the same alignment as Sens if he were Mafia, though? (mafia-aligned)

Then Emp cannot be Mafia A either. This is on top of the evidence I already provided.

I personally don't believe it, that mafia A and mafia B would show up as the same to your supposed ability, but you're the one who should know it best, including your special notes. This is just yet another contradiction in both your logic and your play.

[Kinetic]

The arguments against Caboose are good.

I'm not going to vote Sera for obvious reasons. Kinetic's role claim makes sense and he's acting townie so I won't vote him.

Another reason Emp cannot be Mafia A. If he was Mafia A with Sera, he would have hammered immediately and won the game.

[Kinetic]

I'm really tired.

But I'm not surprised that I'm still alive. If what I said yesterday still stands then the only people who could be scum are myself and Electra. And if Electra is scum, killing me off would be like shooting herself in the proverbial foot.

I'm sure I don't need to remind you guys don't vote until we discuss, we're in LyLo, etc etc.

I'm going to look over things, but I'm almost positive that Electra is the last scum. That being said, something is nagging me a little bit, and just to make sure I didn't miss anything I'm going to re-read the thread once more. There is bound to be something there if Electra is scum and I intend to find it.

[Kinetic]

Well I've spent the better part of the day instead of making an appeal to emotion looking to find the links. And they're there.


First:

I'm pretty sure this is my favorite type of game.

vote: Sensfan

for not posting yet

Okay, I promise to post more from now on, if I can remember this forum.

But anyway, I don't find ooba suspicious right now, as he started the game by saying that he didn't want to random vote, which I don't think scum would have done. It's too unnecessary when scum can just vote and blend in.

I also find it interesting that the charter bandwagon lost steam very quickly - while I'd like MafiaSSK to be more specific, I think there's some value to whatever meta he's seen. I also think that charter's posts, especially the one of being sure that SensFan is town, is scummy.

So

unvote, vote: charter

Electra's first two votes are for Sens/Charter. Odd. Looks like distancing...

Additionally Electra doesn't go on to vote either again until:

You continue to make short posts that address nothing and have no backing and are just plain rude.

You say you're busy but apparently this doesn't keep you from being on Mafiascum, it just keeps you from posting any content.

unvote, vote:SensFan

Welcome to L-1.

Welcome to the Bus. This is after Electra makes her Cop gambit, Sens looks like he's going to be lynched, and Electra makes sure she is on the lynch. Makes her "Virtually Confirmed".

Sens stayed at L-1 for a while. If his scum partner is not on this lynch yet, the smart play is to hammer him as scum. It just is. Hammering a scum is a great thing to have on your record in a game.

Electra also isn't the first person to back off the lynch, forbiddenlight is. Then Seraphim backs off before FL brings Sens back to -2 (and to the point where he will be lynched at deadline).

What happens next? With less than a day to deadline, Electra unvotes Sens, and begins a Wagon on wolf. Sens immediately jumps on wolf to help save his life, but neither has reached 3 votes yet...

Eventually Emp seals the deal, bringing wolf to the top, and even though a counter wagon re-begins on Sens (one I would have voted for had I replaced Tamuz then and not the next day), Caboose, FL and Sera, all who I believe are pretty much town, are unable to overcome the scum driven counter wagon.

Honestly, it would have been a perfect play for the scum if Caboose didn't kill Sens.

I keep returning to the arguments between Sens and Electra Day 2. The more I read it, the more I see scum distancing and even some clever play from Sens. If the two discussed this claim before hand, I'm thinking Sens purposely told Electra to have some holes in her claim that he could point out and if she died he would come out looking almost psychic.

I think if you're having trouble seeing Electra as scum, go re-read that with the possibility that Sens and Electra are on the same team. It fits, too well.

vote:Electra

[Kinetic]

WOOT

I so thought I was coming into an unwinnable game. I mean I only had to get a VIGILANTE lynched then a virtually confirmed COP lynched back to back to win...

Who the hell is going to be able to do that!?

[Kinetic]

Why'd you kill me, Caboose?

You acted extremely anti-town near the end of D1. You didn't vote, which is a HUGE scumtell. You also looked like you were trying to just coast through D1.

Here are my notes on you guys:

ShadowGirl
Getting major scum vibes from her. Kind of sat and coasted through D1. Didn't say anything to raise any eyebrows, but didn't actually help the town win. Didn't vote. Seemed a bit anxious to get to the night, but that could indicate a pro-town power role.

charter
Don't like the Sensfan comment, but I don't know if he deserves to be vigged because of that. Defensive at non-attacks. Asked for a SG wagon for no apparent reason. Prevents a Sensfan wagon. Asked questions with no follow up. Used crap logic to try to call me scummy. Tries to deflect attention to ooba once that wagon starts. Adopts the "everyone's out to get me" attitude. Tries to prevent SP lynch, pushed for an SSK one instead.

Electra
Was the object of an attempted last minute bandwagon, but I don't like the fact that Yaw chainsaw defended her and her OMGUS vote on SP.

forbiddanlight
Her level of activity is uncharacteristically low. Hasn't said anything scummy, though.

MafiaSSK
Very anti-town, but not necessarily scum. I'm buying his roleclaim. He might be my target N2 depending on how he acts D2.

Empking
Nat bugged the crap out of me. Anti-town play, but not necessarily scum. Weak reason to vote Electra. I don't really have a read on him yet.

Ooba
His first few posts pinged on my scumdar because of the lack of reasoning. Yaw's chainsaw defense of ooba also doesn't really sit well with me, I'm surprised that I didn't see that at the time. Voted SSK on the last few pages with little reason, send up a red flag with me. Would be informative to learn his alignment because it provides insight into Yaw's, Seraphim's, and possibly Empking's. Probable kill for tonight.

RandomGem
Don't really have a read on him.

Sensfan
I'm seriously considering vigging him so that I don't have to see his avatar again. Nothing really stuck out as scummy to me today.

Seraphim
Possibly scum from his starting a bandwagon on Electra at the last second possibly to save SSK. Possible scumpartner is Yaw.

wolf
No read yet. Pretty opportunistic jump onto SSK wagon, though.

Yaw
Really not liking his play. He starts a wagon on SP, pretty much chainsaw defending Electra and steered wagon away from SSK.

Alright, so I'm going to make my final decision based on what I just observed and my gut.

Kill: ShadowGirl

What the F*&k?! Why did SSK sit and lie to us?
I'm OK with my kill last night. While SG wasn't scum, she was anti-town.

Now, for tonight...

charter
Something about him that I'm just not liking. There's the SP issue (where he "thought" that SP was town and setting himself up for "told you so"), he's defending Seraphim (who I think is scummy, but we can lynch him tomorrow), and he didn't explain his vote on SSK. Also, uncharacteristically low activity. Trying to hurry up the SSK lynch. Most likely scum in my eyes if SSK doesn't flip scum.

Electra
Not sure about her (I hope I'm getting the pronoun right).

forbiddanlight
Rolefishing at the beginning of D2. Trying to prolong the day for no good reason.

Empking
Needs to participate

RandomGem
Hasn't participated

Sensfan
Seems town to me

Seraphim
Starts on soft crap attacks on both me and Yaw busting out of the gates on D2. Could be scum.

wolf
Also trying to delay an SSK lynch.

Yaw
Subtle rolefishing at the beginning of D2, but I think he's been exonerated by the fact that SP flipped town.

Hopefully this one is good.

Kill: charter

Alright, bagged a scum last night.
But there's no time to gloat, it's time to take care of charter's scumbuddies...

Electra
I believe her cop claim for now.

forbiddanlight
Not sure why she wanted Sens bandwagon D1, but it increases scuminess seeing that charter flipped scum. Tried a crap attack on me D1 and then backed off when she saw that it was going to blow up in her face. Scummy since that's exactly what charter did as well. Subtle rolefishing D2. Tried to drag out D2 more than needed. Flips out when Electra claims and tries to crap on her claim, then goes along with me. Probably SK.

Empking
Extremely scummy. Talks about 2 factions of scum at beginning of day. Buddies up with Sens. Depends on how Sens flips.

Tamuz
RandomGem jumps in and attacks the case on charter D1. Then, he jumps in again and attacks the case on SSK D1. Sits and tries to call all cases weak D1, which increases scuminess. Subtle rolefishing.

Sensfan
Crazy scummy from FL's and my conversation with him. Role sounds like scum role.

Seraphim
Yaw flipping town and charter flipping scum increases scuminess. Gives a claim when not even close to being lynched. Tried a crap attack on me D2 and backed off. If FL flips town, it increases his scuminess. Most likely confirmed town if Sens flips scum.

At this point I think that the rest of the scumteam is Tamuz and Sens. The SK is most likely FL.

Kill: SensFan

I had Tamuz pegged on Night 3. If we had lynched Sens Day 3, I would have vigged Tamuz.

I'm happy with my performance, though.

If it makes you feel better, I absolutely knew I had to get you lynched or my chances of winning were virtually null. Even if you didn't kill me, you having a kill made things very bad for me in a lot of ways.

So when I entered the game I made you the priority of my attack. The entire day way to get you lynched and to look townie doing it.

[Kinetic]

Yeah, Caboose was owning this game. Good job.

I also really like the cop variant.

Really thought Kinetic had hung himself there by trying to tie his role to mine after Sens had just flipped scum while doing the same thing...

Ah, but mine was a better claim. Plus it also worked in that Sens's role technically would still work by the role I claimed, which would explain why the person in my role didn't counter-claim him.

[Kinetic]

I didn't think Caboose was scum, but Empking was obviously not going to vote himself, and I figured that it wouldn't hurt us as long as there was no Mafia A. Unfortunately, Seraphim decided I was Mafia at some point, which made 0 sense, considering that I said that Sens and him were opposite alignments and Sens turned out to be scum.

If we had just ignored roles and lynched whoever was most suspicious though, it definitely would have been Kinetic based on Caboose/Seraphim's play. Sigh. Whatever.

You know, please, don't blame me for thinking you were scummy. It was really the AoE at the end that made me vote for you, while Kinetic had laid out, quite nicely, some logical points.

I made a mistake. your play made me think you were scum. *shrugs* I suppose this has been a rather humbling expierence...I thought that Electra was scum, and rather than listening to facts, I tunnel-visioned her until she died. Which turned out to be our loss.

Oh well. Good game, Mafia! You had me fooled the entire time. XP

Don't feel too bad Sera. I left you around instead of Emp for a multitude of reasons, chiefly, the fact that you relied a little too heavily on logic, something I was banking on.

Even though Emp called me townie, I really couldn't get into his head, and I thought he was a bigger risk. But by killing him, I also had yet another out, Wifommy as it was. "Empking called me town, obv if I was scum I'd want him around".

What it came down to was that I gave you too much information. Information overload if you will. The whole point of that was "Look at everything I'm giving you, if I were scum would I say so much?" But in reality it was "This is everything I'm giving you... but what am I leaving out?" And at the same time I played a Magicians game. Look at my right hand and ignore what my left hand is doing.

I think if some people were a little more critical of my motives (i.e. If I was scum, what would I know), and a little more critical of everything I gave you (i.e. Well he says that IF there is a Mafia A/SK then Caboose must be it, but what if there isn't...) You guys might have unveiled me.

Caboose didn't help himself with lying on Day 2 at all. It made his full vig claim unbelievable and untestable if he was a SK. His own assurance that there was a Mafia A also tanked his own case against Empking that he was Mafia A, ironically.

In that situation Caboose should have realized there could not be a Mafia A unless he was in it, and should have pushed for either a lynch of myself of Electra. Both of which would have most likely won the game for town. Caboose could have lynched one, then killed the other, and no matter WHAT I did, the game would have been lost to me.

Additionally EVEN if he was SK, in that situation it would STILL be Emp/Sera/Him in end game and Emp/Sera would know he was SK if that happened. If he brought that point up, town might have won.

I thought the reasons behind him not doing that were, honestly, him being a Serial Killer. If he brought that stuff up, he was as good as dead as a SK.