Micro 1089: the coalition, again [game over]

[Thestatusquo]

@shea my issue is that i'm not sure town-tris doesnt just play this way tho

Like is it unideal, yes
But i can see her as town playing like this ...

Read the ISO Isis posted. It's literally night and day

the worst timeline would be if mafia!Isis tried to white knight tris with an ISO and it just made Shea want to kill tris more

This is a thing I'm worried about tbh.

I think on the balance Tris is more likely to flip red than Isis though even not taking that into account.

[Thestatusquo]

Why is "unthought out takes" scum!Isis?

Which alignment do you think I spam the preview button on lmao

I guess I just have a high opinion of your analytical reasoning and generally I associate being off in reasoning with scum because they are sometimes forced to make bad arguments

[Thestatusquo]

Ari if you actually end up being scum this game I'm going to be so fucking mad I hope you know that.

[Thestatusquo]

@shea my issue is that i'm not sure town-tris doesnt just play this way tho

Like is it unideal, yes
But i can see her as town playing like this ...

Read the ISO Isis posted. It's literally night and day

the worst timeline would be if mafia!Isis tried to white knight tris with an ISO and it just made Shea want to kill tris more

This is a thing I'm worried about tbh.

I think on the balance Tris is more likely to flip red than Isis though even not taking that into account.

ok but in the world that scum!isis didn't even read the iso before saying its the same iso doesn't that make tris town because um it would be quite bad to defend your teammate with an iso that doesn't even fit

I think scum isis would a) potentially assume I wouldn't read it. I didnt read the scum game she posted for me earlier and b) might legitimately think it supports her point or at the very least wouldn't be so obviously different

[Thestatusquo]

It kind of feels like I'm the only person actually trying to solve this game to some extent. :/

[Thestatusquo]

Ok but like why are you town reading her?

[Thestatusquo]

Its like every single point that comes up for tris being scum someone is like welllll if we squint really hard and write out a list of excuses we can ignore that and like well ok but why aren't you doing the same thing for the other side of the question?

[Thestatusquo]

this reaction from skitter is just extremely off.

[Thestatusquo]

That is an outrageous position considering she was literally universally town read and in literally everyones coalition.

The claim that she's the easiest mislim is just strictly wrong.

[Thestatusquo]

Yes because of my arguments. Your timeline is completely backwards.

[Thestatusquo]

Someone: universally townread
Me: Cases them because I think they're incredibly likely to be scum and town-cases sheep who everyone thought was scum because I think he does not have very many viable pairs the way the game was played
Like three people: those points are pretty good
You: Well someone was the easiest miselim because everyone wants to vote them now.

Like WHAT bro?

[Thestatusquo]

Yes because of my arguments. Your timeline is completely backwards.

I disagree, because, again, I openly said what if it's Tris before you made your arguments. So maybe everyone else but I didn't read your arguments because it would just lead to me confbiasing my own already present read.

I promise you that I didn't care what your opinion on tris was when I decided they were most likely to be scum and more importantly I think your opinion on the matter was closest to the least important in the entire game.

[Thestatusquo]

I just want to be acknowledged as a good smart boy.

then you'll LOVE my last post.

[Thestatusquo]

I don't care about your theory.

[Thestatusquo]

Sheep shea requires me to have put sheep in the coalition and into danger for no benefit whatsoever in the first place.

The argument that I am somehow making this affirmative play to save my scumbuddy when I was the one who put them in that position in the first place is categorically nonsensical.

Like could I do that? Sure. Why the fuck would I though? To make this argument right now? Seems like poor compensation for making it infinitely more likely scum gets limmed today.

[Thestatusquo]

Your inflated ego aside. Timelines don't lie. I laid the foundation, you came in and did the work.

I'm the smart good boy here. I wasn't dumb enough to do the hard work

I'm not sure why but this insistence on getting credit feels pretty townie except in a world where the team is exactly tris-bh.

[Thestatusquo]

I do what I want.

[Thestatusquo]

I think my progression on you is also one I would almost never take as a scum buddy but I guess thats an "I know that" thing.

[Thestatusquo]

its crazy that anyone thinks I am scum this game I'm actually kind of annoyed with myself with how far outside my scum range I've let myself get and now have to incorporate to some degree into my scum game.

[Thestatusquo]

i dont know why people say that sheep cant be scum with people in the car. the only coalition he ever vote for that didnt have either himself or both brass and fire was one that he voted for only three minutes.

Assuming by "the car" you mean the people not in the coalition I explained why in some detail. Because it requires him to be pushing aggressively for the day to end with a coalition that he knows kills him. He was not pushing any specific option, he just wanted a coalition for the day to end. In order for him to be scum with someone not in the coalition it would require him to be sitting on the sidelines, taking no actions to not die, while screaming "kill us kill us kill us kill us" over and over again at the top of his lungs.

If you really think that's the scum teams plan to not lose the game I don't know what to tell you.

[Thestatusquo]

I believe you're e-1

[Thestatusquo]

Who he voted for is irrelevant.

He was not trying to push alternative coalitions and was continually encouraging people to just vote for whatever the leading coalition was.

[Thestatusquo]

I mean you can go back and reread that part of the game yourself. Does sheep really seem to you like he's acting like he needs to get either himself or someone else on the coalition or he loses?

I do not see it. Never in a million years.

[Thestatusquo]

I mean you can go back and reread that part of the game yourself. Does sheep really seem to you like he's acting like he needs to get either himself or someone else on the coalition or he loses?

I do not see it. Never in a million years.

what does acting like that look like.

I know it doesn't look like posting "lol I'm town" and encouraging people to rush the coalition vote repeatedly when he wasn't on it.

The only person I can possibly see him with is bulge/bh because there were worlds where bh made it in but those worlds were tenuous at best

[Thestatusquo]

why aristeia?

[Thestatusquo]

almost all of the google results for "What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?" are links on forum.mafiascum.net

[Thestatusquo]

yeah I thought that through as soon as I asked the question tbh. From your PoV if you agree with me that sheep is not paired with someone not in the coalition there's not much choice for you.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm starting to think it's more likely that skitter is scum than Tris.

[Thestatusquo]

The way she's played around all of this is just weird man.

[Thestatusquo]

She's still talking to me like she thinks I'm town the whole time which is very different from how she talked to me early day 1 when we were disagreeing. Like drastically different.

[Thestatusquo]

looks like I missed nothing whilst off galavanting.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm a little worried that skitter is just so openly white knighting Tris. I don't think her arguments are any good and I think her arguments that I'm scum in response are even worse.

I am not really sure how scum skitter responds to this kind of pressure on her partner though because it kind of feels like there's good reasons for her to respond in either direction.

[Thestatusquo]

It feels like kind of substantively different from Isis defending Tris where she was originally like my read on Tris is melting and then she's like Im not interested in voting Tris today and then it's like I think it's you actually and the progression is just really weird.

[Thestatusquo]

Where skitter was like* to clarify whose progression I'm talking about.

[Thestatusquo]

Idk mayne I feel like I'm too stupid to figure this out.

[Thestatusquo]

I am currently drunk but I am not drunk posting

[Thestatusquo]

I think it could go either way.

[Thestatusquo]

I lost another rcq semifinals today. How's everyone doing

[Thestatusquo]

Ok everyone who was scum reading me is now banned.

[Thestatusquo]

I am sorry I have been busy relitigating all the wrongs of the past.

[Thestatusquo]

I've had "fuck it [ v]skitter[/ v] on my computer screen for like 30m now.

[Thestatusquo]

Shea why don't you want to normalvote skitter

because I'm waffling. ig I don't really think tris and skitter are scum together and I think one of them is and I am not super confident in my ability to tell which one.

[Thestatusquo]

Ari what do you think about the state of the world

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not going to deadsheep you because I know you're wrong about me at the very least and your reasoning for suspecting me is virtually non-existent to boot.

If you have reads you want me to consider if you flip green I'd like you to state them plainly and with full explanation right now.

Also @ari that is technically an answer to my question but I think we both know that's not what I meant.

[Thestatusquo]

I am asking you for some thoughts on alignment.

[Thestatusquo]

it might be unfair because we're not really getting them from most people.

[Thestatusquo]

VOTE: Skitter

I think I prefer this. God help us.

[Thestatusquo]

I decided I think it's more likely that Tris plays like this as town than skitter plays like this as town.

[Thestatusquo]

Dont think so.

Think it was 3 tris 2 skitter at the time.

[Thestatusquo]

I kind of think if skitter is mafia the partner is fire but I'm not even sure we'll get a red flip here so I'm going to just nod and pretend I know what I'm doing

I was thinking something similar.

[Thestatusquo]

yeah you're the one that was holding things together.

[Thestatusquo]

not voting outside of tris-skitter today

[Thestatusquo]

Fire is being extremely weird.

[Thestatusquo]

could be!

could also be any number of other things. Did you eat lunch today?

[Thestatusquo]

I want ari to be scum so bad because then you can all bow down to me

[Thestatusquo]

Paranoid skitter is benefitting from the lull in the game when she's consensus scum and triskitter is cornered. But if it's triskitter exactly we would get the comeback

I bus her and coast on the cred like six thousand years ago if i'm scum with tris

I've made this post 1000 times.

As scum.

[Thestatusquo]

I mean I don't even think you and tris are partners but its just the tone of your post of "I wouldn't do x as scum" which strikes me as more likely to be coming from scum. As town I don't frequently feel the need to point out what I wouldn't do as scum though I sometimes do it because I need to keep the range balanced and maybe you do something similar but naturally its not a very naturally townie thing to just blurt out.

[Thestatusquo]

I can sympathize with that I suppose.

[Thestatusquo]

Do you think your play here has been good if you're town?

[Thestatusquo]

she thought you were going to flip and was trying to get credit for being right on you.

[Thestatusquo]

sigh. ok you know what, I just don't care anymore.

Do whatever y'all

[Thestatusquo]

I literally don't even care anymore.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm switch to Tris if people prefer but I prefer skitter. I'm not voting sheep.

[Thestatusquo]

I think one of skitter tris is scum in this game state. I think pre-flip associations take a backseat to that.

[Thestatusquo]

your sheep shea theory is asinine.

[Thestatusquo]

I think if shea was scum with sheep he would have bussed him and coasted on the cred

lol

[Thestatusquo]

I'm giving hellbooks credit for that being a direct comment on how twitters worldview makes little sense and combining it with her words about herself so I'm hoping that's the case.

[Thestatusquo]

skitters worldview, though twitters worldview certainly also doesnt make sense.

[Thestatusquo]

You should approach all of my posts with a "death of the author" attitude (by which i mean you should read them and think "wow the author of this post should get limmed")

a lot of people talk about the death of the artist but not that many talk about the death of the fartist.

[Thestatusquo]

the fact that there were two competing counterwagons makes it more likely tris is scum but I dont believe in wagonomics.

[Thestatusquo]

It makes it slightly less likely that skitter is scum because if she were we likely would have seen movement back to tris instead of to a new wagon.

But again wagonomics is utterly flawed.

[Thestatusquo]

sheep is the least likely to be scum of the three based on pure wagon considerations.

[Thestatusquo]

no.

[Thestatusquo]

You are asking simply what the wagonomics would say.

If you want to make further assumptions you're free to do so.

For what its worth I think that one of the ways analysis of wagons goes wrong is the person doing said analysis makes heavy assumptions about the game state outside of what is actually know. I think another way it frequently goes wrong is people use it as a determinative measure rather than a probabilistic measure, and a low probability one at that.

I'm answering earnestly because I don't know how else to respond to this bit at this point and I really don't like it.

[Thestatusquo]

*outside of what is actually known that should say and should further clarify that I think one of the major assumptions people make is that scum would do x or y in a certain wagon state when in my experience frequently these are percentage calls rather than absolutes which feeds into my second critique of the overall process.

Or something.

[Thestatusquo]

Its actually more complicated than that.

You are indeed required to tell your opponent the game state is incorrect. However in magic something is only explicitly cheating if it has the following characteristics

1) The action must be against the rules
2) The player must be attempting to gain advantage from their action.
3) The player must be aware that they are doing something illegal.

If you do not know you are required to correct the game state it is not cheating. If you do it is.

[Thestatusquo]

Worth noting that is in the infraction procedure guide so it really only exists at competitive rules enforcement level or higher.

At regular rules enforcement level you would consult the Judging at Regular document which has only the following to say on the subject

Serious Problems

Certain actions will not be tolerated under any circumstances. Every effort should be made to educate players before and during events but any player engaging in the following must be removed from your event and, at the Organizer’s discretion, removed from the venue entirely:

1. Aggressive, violent, harassing or abusive behavior (physical or verbal).
   
2. Knowingly breaking or letting an opponent break game or tournament rules, or lying, in order to gain an advantage. “Bluffing” about cards opponents can’t normally see is permitted.
   
3. Theft (including things like replacing a card in a draft with one from a player’s binder).

Removing players in this way is called a Disqualification, and we must always try to educate our players on why these actions are unacceptable. Also let the player know that while your decision is final, Wizards of the Coast would still like to hear their side of the story. You can contact your WPN Representative or follow the instructions at https://wpn.wizards.com/en/article/disq ... wizardscom.

[Thestatusquo]

ggs everyone.

[Thestatusquo]

I knew the vibes were different. I just got distracted by *gestures vaguely at the rest of the mafia game*

[Thestatusquo]

conveniently marathon weekend starts tomorrow.

[Thestatusquo]

hellbooks will you run a dethy in the marathon queue

[Thestatusquo]

I need to fix this "always reading fire as scum when he's being earnest with me" thing I got going on.

Though I guess its also kinda a compliment.

[Thestatusquo]

it was really impressive that infinity was able to turn that slot around. replacement was definitely unlucky for scum

i don't think i would have made it to finding hellbooks without infinity's play making me doubt it was them

and then finding the right answer too !

idk I think both bulge and brass were findable as town.