Mini 679 - BSG: The Basestar (Game Over!)

[iamausername]

I'm going to

Vote: andersonw

. Frakkin' toaster.

[iamausername]

A few questions;

Vote Grimmy

Grimmy, do you think you are scum?

Vote: Channeldelibird

unvote

Fark, what was this all about?

KingEnigma, you seem reluctant to random vote.

Why is that, KingEnigma?

[iamausername]

not put a vote on that i'm going to be taking off in the very near future.

Maybe you could try putting a vote on without the intention to remove it in the near future? I mean, I agree that random voting is pointless if you're just going to remove it after an arbitrary length of time has passed.

In other news, iamausername is obvtown. Discuss.

I think he's onto something here, guys.

[iamausername]

I don't think I'm being impatient; in the 'model game' for not random voting, Newbie 465, people ask questions in their first post, even if it's as basic as "are you scum?" - and I can't see any reason to delay doing that. Definitely, if I were not-random-voting, I'd have asked a question or two by now, so I'm curious.

Are you scum?

A++, awesome post, would read again.

Unvote

, because you made me laugh.

Vote: Timeater

, because

you

didn't make me laugh. You said "OUT OF RANDOM STAGE UNVOTE" without adding anything remotely useful, and that makes me sad.

[iamausername]

You seem to think that we've moved out of the 'stage', can you indicate the exact post where you think this is hapened?

Do you think it's necessarily possible for a transition from non-serious to serious to be narrowed down to any one post in particular?

[iamausername]

Actually, I think people are being a little hard on KingEnigma. It's like, because KE doesn't random vote, there's suddenly all this pressure on him to make an amazing post that suddenly makes the game super-serious and gives us all an untold wealth of beautiful, delicious information. And the rest of us can just sit back and wait for him to get on with it, because hey,

we've

random voted. What have

you

done to help the town, KingEnigma?

If you believed random voting was a good way to start the game, and you random voted, you would be trying to move the game forward. You don't, which is fine; you said in 27 that you ask people questions, poke at people, etc instead. But you're not doing that.

Like this. What do you think the last paragraph of #41 was, if not asking questions and poking at people?

In fact, I think he had a very good question there, and I'd like to hear some answers. Why is everyone voting the person they are voting for? Elmo and Fark are the only ones with any particular reasoning behind their votes that I can see.

[iamausername]

Also, were you deliberately exaggerating in the first part of this post?

Yeah, totally.

I would say that I am still voting for you because it still seems that we are in random voting.

Really? I can assure you that my current vote is definitely not random.

Also, I generally don't unvote unless if I think someone else is scummy enough for them to deserve a vote (or if s/he is close to being lynched and I want more discussion).

This is good practice.

Why are you speaking up for him, pray tell?

Oh, I always side with the underdog. OK, mostly, I thought the question in #41 was a good one to ask, and it seemed like it was being ignored. I mean, if we've progressed beyond the random stage (and clearly, we have), then we shouldn't been letting people get by with reasonless votes, no?

(Also.. preferred shortening of your name? )

I like to leave this open, because it amuses me that no one can agree on the best one.

[iamausername]

I got an idea, I'm not going to post anything for a while, cause apparently those who don't post are invisible and because I'm here contributing I'm getting asked redundant questions.

Could you show me what exactly you've contributed so far, besides that one post I pointed out in your defence earlier? I mean, I thought Elmo was being unfair saying that you haven't been doing the 'asking questions, poking at people' thing, but besides that one post, it seems like actually, he was exactly right.

You say you don't know who is scum yet, fine. What are you doing to try to find out?

---

Awesome Pants, do you really think it's helpful to try to organise a strategem for dealing with lurkers before there is any indication that anyone in this game is actually going to lurk?

How do you interpret it? I think the answer is fairly obvious, but maybe i'm a minority here. BUT I'm going to assume your a fairly intelligent person and know why its suspect, so that brings into question why ask me why? You know the answer.

I don't know about this. I really doubt that anyone would be dumb enough to defend their scumbuddy so early in the game.

Given that KE was answering a question relating to me defending him, do you really think 'defending a scumbuddy' is the obvious answer he was talking about?

Also, KE, if the answer is so obvious, why not just say it?

---

Tar, given what you currently know, do you think Farkshinsoup is scum? Please answer yes or no, and give reasoning.

[iamausername]

You've totally sidestepped my argument by just asking me the questions that were originally asked of you. I'm sure you're hoping that I won't answer them, so that you can then argue that I've evaded answering the very questions that you yourself did not want to answer. Wish granted! If anyone else but you wants me to answer these questions, I'd be glad to.

OK, this is kind of ridiculously hypocritical. Either it's scummy to evade these questions or it isn't. You can't have it both ways. Sure, maybe Timeater is using them as a smokescreen to distract from other things. Why can't you point this out AND answer the questions?

Awesome Pants, do you really think it's helpful to try to organise a strategem for dealing with lurkers before there is any indication that anyone in this game is actually going to lurk?

Maybe not, but I can't see how it could be unhelpful. What do you think?

Well, it kind of seems like you could be using it to make it look like you're being useful, when in fact you are not.

Of course, my saying that there is yet to be an indication that people are going to lurk may now be inaccurate:

People I want to hear more from regarding the game so far: CDB, andersonw, Grimmy, Awesome Pants.

QFTin' dis. Grimmy especially, I totally forgot he was even in this game until this post.

[iamausername]

Unvote

Grimmy
dragged kicking and screaming from the joke vote stage...for now

Please tell me this is not the only contribution you plan to make right now.

Unvote, Vote: Grimmy

, because this is exactly what I voted Timeater for, except Grimmy did it later in the day, when it's even less forgivable. And Timeater has posted actual content since then that does not read as particularly scummy to me.

Although this:

Anyway, looking over your answers, only one thing stands out:

Don't know, jury's still out.

Whats this mean, you basically will follow votes and join a wagon if the critical suspicion mass on KE reaches its teetering point? I dont like that.

strikes me as a pretty huge overreaction to a fairly common figure of speech. Timeater, have you never heard that expression before or something?

[iamausername]

I'm pretty damn sure that iamausername is town (in fact, that read is why I asked about him earlier) - his play here reads like his play in both both Mind Screw games (where he was town). I willl check a game where iamausername was scum ASAP to double-check myself, though.

I'm intrigued by how certain you are about this so early in the game. If you have read up on my scum play by now, has that affected your read any? (If you haven't, this game is a pretty short one and probably shows fairly typical scum-user.)

After their latest altercation, I'm seeing a possibility of a Timeater/KingEnigma scum pairing. Timeater backing off based on one fairly weak analysis post from KE doesn't feel too genuine to me.

Honestly Fark, I think you just nailed your own coffin shut with this comment:

Timeater, that last post feels to me like, "Well, I can't get a wagon going on Fark, so I'll jump on the one against KE."

Its like you are trying to pull off a jedi mind trick here by implying any wagon against you will fail. JMT's are great scumtells and now that I'm not so worried about KE, you're my #1 target.

This is really reaching.

I also think that what Fark said in a couple places were pretty bad such as the "I won't answer this. Maybe later" comment (paraphrasing here)

Given that 'maybe later' has come and Frak has answered the question in question, are we to assume that you take issue with his explanation? If so, why?

Of the arguments against Tim, I'll say it is pretty strange, given how much he was going after Fark, that he waits until a couple days ago to finally place a vote. It's also interesting how that vote comes on the heels of votes from me and KE. Kind of seems like Tim was waiting for a viable bandwagon. So, Tim, what's with the timing of your vote?

This question demands an answer.

[iamausername]

Frak

Haha, now that is a great typo.

[iamausername]

iamausername, should I remove my vote on you?

Probably, yeah. It's not really doing much, is it?

I mean, if you have reason to believe I'm more likely scum than anyone else (or some other justification for keeping a vote on me at this point) then I'd like to hear it, but otherwise, I'm sure there are better things you could be doing with it.

[iamausername]

Hey, Iam. I'm thinking maybe no lynch. You follow?

I don't think there are many situations where this would be a good idea on D1, and I have no reason to believe that this game is one of them.

I'd much rather

Unvote, Vote: Timeater

. That is definitely a cool wagon for attractive people.

iamausername, should I remove my vote on you?

Probably, yeah. It's not really doing much, is it?

I mean, if you have reason to believe I'm more likely scum than anyone else (or some other justification for keeping a vote on me at this point) then I'd like to hear it, but otherwise, I'm sure there are better things you could be doing with it.

Awesome Pants, any followup questions/comments/suggestions?

[iamausername]

Macavity's suggestion of a policy claim for self-voters is just weird. If you think self voting is scummy enough to deserve a vote, then vote. If enough people agree with to put the self-voter in danger of actually being lynched, then they should claim. This is not the kind of thing where it makes sense to cut out the middle-man.

Hi, I'll post something tomorrow. For now, I'm curious to see if anyone else figured why.

I don't have a clue, and I'm very interested to know the answer, being the one you singled out.

---

What would you suggest I do with [my vote]?

Put it on someone you think is more likely to be scum than anyone else?

Do you care if I leave it on you rather than take it off and don't put it on anyone?

Well, in the abstract, I prefer everyone to have their vote on someone at all times on Day 1. However, when you haven't given any actual reason for your vote to be on me rather than anyone else, and no one else (besides anderson, who also hasn't given a reason for his vote) has shown any inclination towards voting me, you might as well be voting no one for all the good it's doing.

If you don't present a case, there's nothing for me to defend against, and if it's supposed to be a 'pressure' vote, then I have to say, I'm not really feeling any. So I'm not really seeing what practical purpose your vote is serving.

~Gonna go look up some Awesome Pants meta to see if he's always so... hands-off on D1~

---

I would say that I am still voting for you because it still seems that we are in random voting. Also, I generally don't unvote unless if I think someone else is scummy enough for them to deserve a vote (or if s/he is close to being lynched and I want more discussion).

anderson, last time I asked, this was your explanation for your vote. What parts of this reasoning, if any, would you say still apply?

[iamausername]

Woo, prodded.

I've fallen behind on this game a little, shall be catching up ASAP, given the imminent deadline.

[iamausername]

I also don't like IAUN's lurking

Me either.

Read up on the recent Elmo spat, and I'm definitely falling on his side of the argument. Tar and forbiddan are both pushing the idea that there is no reason for him to do these things as town, and therefore he must be scum, without even vaguely considering the point that there's really no reason for him to do them as scum, either. I'm not sure I'm buying it as genuine suspicion from either one of them, it's just too much 'by the book', not enough gut.

In other news, Flask of Pestilence has compensated enough for Timeater to make me want to

Unvote

.

Gonna tentatively

Vote: KingEnigma

because I've still gotta have a vote somewhere and that seems as good a place as any right now, but I really need to do some reading in isolation and PBPAs and all that jazz, because I just don't have good enough reads at the moment.

[iamausername]

Hey, posting a quick note in all my games to say I'm still here, but been rather unexpectedly busy the last couple of days. I should be back to full strength posting tomorrow.

And a special note for this game to say it'll be my #1 priority when I do get the time, because I know my lack of posting has been particularly bad here.

[iamausername]

Tar, just to be sure I'm understanding your claim, you send in your investigations during the day, but don't get a result until the following night, yes?

Tar's claim certainly warrants a degree of scepticism, but I definitely think it's best to let him live for now. If my understanding of Tar's claim is correct, we should extend KingEnigma that same privelige, so

Unvote, Vote: forbiddanlight

.

I know people wanted to know why my vote was on KingEnigma in the first place, so I guess I should explain that a little.

Basically, when he came under pressure early on, he basically stated outright that he was going to lurk until the attention on him went away, and I don't like how well this worked for him; I think if he was town, I'm not sure that scum would let him get away with this. The reverse seems considerably more likely to happen. Also, serious bet-hedging ITP.

---

Now for why I'm moving my vote to FL.

Look, I think timeater is the lynch whether he's active or not. I honestly think it would not be conducive to try to switch bandwagons with only four days left. I'm also pretty sure that tim is scum.

Here FL tries to push through a lynch on Timeater without waiting for a claim. This is highly unlikely to benefit the town.
I also don't like the way "I think Tim is scum" is tacked on as an afterthought, it feels forced. Like, she's anticipating people suggesting that her vote is not rooted in real suspicion and wants to cut that off before it starts. I don't think that speaks to a pro-town mindset.

As I've already said, I came down pretty much entirely on Elmo's side in their debate.

Lol wut? So we shouldn't lynch anti town people? Um...except for the fact that scum can act anti town to push their own agenda, sure! GREAT IDEA! LET'S MAKE THIS THE NEW META!

What agenda was Elmo pushing by saying things like "I don't feel like being helpful today"? There's a lot of waffle, but at the core of it, she's still basically saying of Elmo's behaviour "it's scummy because it JUST IS!"

And I'm pretty sure forgetting who you are voting is a scumtell.

[iamausername]

Glad to see you claiming idiot

I KNOW YOU ARE BUT WHAT AM I!!!

What agenda was Elmo pushing by saying things like "I don't feel like being helpful today"? There's a lot of waffle, but at the core of it, she's still basically saying of Elmo's behaviour "it's scummy because it JUST IS!"

Um...did you miss the point where I state that claimed gambits like that are bullshit?

How does that answer the question? You attacked Elmo

before

he said anything about a gambit, because he was "being BLATENTLY anti-town", and have explained that this is scummy because "scum can act anti town to push their own agenda". I want to know what agenda you think Elmo was pushing.

And I'm pretty sure forgetting who you are voting is a scumtell.

Since when?

Since townies started having more reason to care about who gets lynched than scum (ie. since ALWAYS).

What happened to your meta check on me, iamausername?

It didn't turn up any useful way to tell your D1 play as town apart from your D1 play as scum. It wasn't a particularly thorough check though, I get distracted easily.

I don't know what to do with FL's claim. It's baffling.

[iamausername]

To the best of my knowledge, I am not a cylon.

Yup.

[iamausername]

Unvote

, because now that we pretty much know for sure that we have town-aligned cylons, I definitely trust FL's claim.

Vote: Awesome Pants

for now. I'm going to look over the Macavity case, because he's been getting a fair amount of attention lately, and I don't recall finding him particularly scummy. Or noteworthy in any way, really.

[iamausername]

Unvote, Vote: Grimmy

. I forgot Awesome Pants was being replaced. That kind of takes away what little point that vote had.

I'm really sort of stuck for where to go now; I've got an unusually long list of people I

don't

want to lynch for D1, but no one at all that I have any particular desire to see dead.

[iamausername]

Really? Funny, that, since all number twos are, AFAIK, part of Cavil's faction. Who want to destroy what remains of humanity, and boxed (resulting in the destruction of) every Number Three except D'Anna Biers, who now leads the Cylon group I'm a part of - the ones allied to humans.

Vote: Farkshinsoup

until you can give me a damn good reason not to.

No they're not. Fours and Fives are part of the Ones's faction. Twos are aligned with the Sixes and Eights (sans Boomer) in the "Can't we all just get along?" rebel faction.

[iamausername]

Also, I've completely lost track of who is and isn't a cylon, I'll have to go back and make notes about that.

Cylons

forbiddanlight
Flask of Pestilence
Farkshinsoup
MacavityLock
Knight of Cydonia

Humans

Tarhalindur
Elmo
iamausername
Rishi
andersonw
camn

Still hasn't told us

Grimmy

---

I AM TRYING JUST AS HARD AS I CAN TO GET TAR TO ACCUSE ME OF IIOA!

[iamausername]

I'm really sort of stuck for where to go now; I've got an unusually long list of people I

don't

want to lynch for D1, but no one at all that I have any particular desire to see dead.

Have you read over MacavityLock or the case against him? What do you think of it?

Yes. It annoys me because I don't think it's a particularly strong case, but it might still be the best we have.

Going back to #313, which covers all the main points against Macavity, if I'm not mistaken, I think the only really solid point is his fence-sitting during the Fark/Tim debate.

He's explained the question about Timeater's knowledge of the theme, and I don't see a reason to doubt that explanation. I'm not really seeing how the argument about what constitutes OMGUS says anything about Macavity's alignment. And I'm not sure that "Information Instead of Analysis" is a stronger scumtell than "No Information or Analysis, or much of anything, really", which Grimmy, andersonw and Awesome Pants (pre-replacement) have all been pretty guilty of.

[iamausername]

In fact, during her time as Leoben's captive "lover," Starbuck kept killing them. President Roslin airlocked one in the first season.

I always assumed that those are all the same one downloading into new bodies over and over. But yeah, it's still perfectly possible for there to be more than one #2 floating around, Leoben's just the only one who's ever had significant screentime.

Thinking about it, I'm very suspicious of the way KoC seems to know so much more about what's going on than the rest of us.

I'm a Centurion allied to Natalies/D'Anna (forbiddan)'s faction.

Was anyone else given this much information about their alignment?

[iamausername]

I just thought of something interesting.

Vote: Channeldelibird

unvote

vote: iamusername

Dude, your centurion is showing.

Fark, if you are a town-aligned cylon, why would you make this random vote?

Gonna go back and look for any more inconsistencies like this, since up until FL's claim, it seemed like everyone was assuming we had Humans = Town and Cylons = Scum, although maybe that was just me interpreting things this way because that was my assumption. And it doesn't make sense for town-aligned cylons to think this, wheras it would make sense for scum-aligned cylons, so if any of our claimed cylons were clearly making this assumption pre-claims, I think that may be a pretty big scumtell.

Obviously, this rests on our assumption that the scumgroup is Cavil's cylon faction being correct, but I can't think who else it could be that fits with the theme at all.

[iamausername]

KoC, would I be right to assume that you use your power during the night?

I'm a bit confused by the quick wagon that's formed on Farkshinsoup. I mean yes, he's claimed to be a number 2, which is what I am as Leoben Conoy, but I don't understand the portion mentioned by iamausername as I thought his vote during the random vote "stage" was just random chatter. Why does his mentioning something about a centurion lead you to believe this is some kind of inconsistency?

The point is that he voted me for having a Cylon as an avatar, indicating that he is assuming the scum in the game are Cylons, which doesn't seem to make sense for someone who knows that at least one Cylon (himself) is town. I mean, if he'd been Sharon Agathon or Caprica Six, it might make sense, since they've got pretty well established human connections and would make sense as anomalies, but a random #2 wouldn't be town unless a lot of other Cylons were.

I'm totally buying his explanation that he didn't know for sure if he was town, though, so I don't think it's at all voteworthy when I've read him as pretty pro-town elsewhere. I do think it was worth bringing to attention though, because I think some scum almost certainly got lured into the sudden wagon on him that came out of it.

Unvote, Vote: MacavityLock

.

because everyone else who hopped on that wagon is protected from lynch today due to their claims, I believe. Not particularly thrilled with this vote, but it's better than a No Lynch.

[iamausername]

iamausername - I'm not going to answer that, and stop fishing for info on my role.

Rolefishing is only bad BEFORE you claim. Try again.

Given what you currently know, do you think Tarhalindur is scum? Please answer yes or no, and give reasoning.

Considering that my role PM says I am town... um, no. Next question?

I would now like to point this out.

This is a good point.

If it makes anyone feel any better about switching to Fark from Mac - I'm scanning him. You can have your answers tomorrow.

Which one are you scanning, Fark or Mac?

Looks like Grimmy is next on the list to fullclaim and thus dissolve his wagon (I'm assuming this is going to happen because I'm pretty sure I know what he's going to claim already). Really, when we're getting to the point where more than half the players have fullclaimed I'm starting to think we might as well just go ahead and have the rest do it as well.

Unvote, Vote: andersonw

. Got any better ideas?

[iamausername]

Well, that makes things easier.

Unvote, Vote: MacavityLock

[iamausername]

Oh, I forgot the one-shot part. That takes away the usual reasons for lynching the guilty result over lynching the claimed cop even when you think the cop is lying.

Unvote, Vote: Knight of Cydonia

[iamausername]

Do you think he's lying, Iam? Why? You didn't seem to suspect him at all before now.

Not true. See Post #507. And my question in Post #577; the reason I asked that was to see if I could catch him out claiming to have a night power when clearly everyone else's powers are used during the day. Clearly, he cottoned onto that, but as you pointed out, that still shows him up, because he'd actually already claimed his power was used at night.

That's twice he's backtracked on his claims when they were shown to be inconsistent with everyone else; the day/night power, and also the part where he originally said he knew for certain that there are two Cylon factions - Cavil's and D'Anna/Natalie's - then later claimed that this was pure speculation on his part based on the fact that his role PM says he aims for the peaceful unity of human and cylon.

I think the best-worst-case is mislynching Macavity and trading 1:1.

How is this better than the scenario where we mislynch KoC and trade 1:1?

[iamausername]

So, Tar, is camn dangerous?

[iamausername]

Also, Rishi/Iam's reasons for jumping onto KoC yesterday were pretty awful.

My stated reasons were clearly far better than Rishi's, on account of them actually existing.

I would be staggered if there was no scum in {Tar, Rishi, Iam}.

Seconded!

[iamausername]

Well, as Tar got an innocent on camn, it does seem like a

Vote: Rishi

is kind of a no-brainer. His actions regarding Macavity yesterday are deeply suspicious, considering Macavity's flip, there was no kill last night and Fark claims to have blocked him. It's pretty damning.

Here's everything Rishi had to say about Macavity yesterday:

Given what I've seen in other games I've read, I think it makes good sense to officially request a claim from any self-voter. How do people feel about this?

Why do you think this? Could you give an example of a game where it was helpful?

Honestly, I've never seen it done before. It's an idea I recently had (but didn't actually bring up) in another game where someone self-voted. (Game ongoing.) To me, it feels like self-voting is inviting a lynch on oneself. It feels like de facto L-1. I'm really not sure, which is why I brought it up as a question here, but I think it might be a strategy worth trying.

Obviously, that strategy would not come in to play during random vote stage.

Self-voting is pretty crazy. I think there's a very narrow range of possibilities where it's actually a good play. However, to say that it deserves an auto-claim is a bit too much of a stretch.

What's especially bad about your statements is that you're not even voting for Timeater and you want a claim from him? Anyway, I still would like Timeater to explain his actions, but I also want to know what the deal is asking for a claim from a person who you're not even voting for.

I was asking for people's opinions on a claim, not directly asking for a claim. Sorry if that wasn't clear. If people aren't for that, and it sounds like most aren't, then I'm fine with not going there, and just asking for an explanation.

But were you supporting the idea of a claim? My impression is that you thought that claiming was a good idea, when, in fact, it wasn't.

In fact,

I probably wouldn't be willing to help lynch anyone right now except for Fark and MacavityLock (whose case never picked up the steam it deserved)

. Maybe one of the lurkers, if it came down to it (like Awesome Pants or andersonw), but only right at deadline. As for other wagons, no one has made a convincing enough case yet, for me.

And that's it. Considering the fact that the Macavity wagon actually did "pick up the steam it deserved" after this, and Rishi had absolutely nothing to say on that matter, this seems like some pretty obvious distancing.

[iamausername]

Kison replaces Tarhalindur. Thanks!

Kison, we're gonna need a claim right away.

Also, welcome to the game.

[iamausername]

It was a cunning ruse. See, if Kison had claimed something different to what Tar had already claimed, we could pretty much assume that he is scum.

As he didn't, we didn't really learn anything useful; he could be telling the truth about his role, he could be astute enough to figure out what me and Elmo were doing and dig through Tar's posts to find the right fake claim. But there was absolutely no downside to this plan; either it works, and we catch scum, or it doesn't, and nothing changes. So, clearly it was worth a try.

[iamausername]

By my count, Rishi was only at L-2 before that unvote, but whatever.

I understand that I am (and should be) under scrutiny for being on the wrong wagon at the end of the day, but I don't see anything wrong with my actions regarding Fark.

Here's the original post I made:

I just thought of something interesting.

Vote: Channeldelibird

unvote

vote: iamusername

Dude, your centurion is showing.

Fark, if you are a town-aligned cylon, why would you make this random vote?

Gonna go back and look for any more inconsistencies like this, since up until FL's claim, it seemed like everyone was assuming we had Humans = Town and Cylons = Scum, although maybe that was just me interpreting things this way because that was my assumption. And it doesn't make sense for town-aligned cylons to think this, wheras it would make sense for scum-aligned cylons, so if any of our claimed cylons were clearly making this assumption pre-claims, I think that may be a pretty big scumtell.

Obviously, this rests on our assumption that the scumgroup is Cavil's cylon faction being correct, but I can't think who else it could be that fits with the theme at all.

I stand by everything I said here; if people were clearly making the assumption that humans are town and cylons are scum despite claiming to be pro-town cylons, that would be a big scumtell. Do you disagree?

Fark's random vote was just an example of the kind of thing I was looking for; I did read through all the claimed cylons in isolation looking for more examples, as I said I would, but I didn't find any further examples of this behaviour, so I didn't take that any further.

I asked Fark for an explanation of an inconsistency, he gave a good one. That's all. I didn't vote for him (and, in fact, never have), and the fact that others decided to start a wagon on Fark on this basis is not my responsibility. And if I was trying to get him lynched for this, I don't know why I'd immediately turn around and decry that wagon in my very next post. Seems to me that that would be rather counterproductive.

I mean, if no one else had agreed with my point, and I'd dropped it, I can see how that could look like I was feeling around to see if the wagon had any legs before I commited myself to it, but I really think the fact that one

did

form, and I

didn't

go along with it proves that that wasn't my intention.

The Iam thing is a Big Deal to me. We need to deal with that before ending the day.

Fark, if you are a town-aligned cylon, why would you make this random vote?

Iam, can you really not think of any good reason why he might post something like that?

Well?

In short, yes, but I wanted to see if Fark could think of a good reason. And he could.

[iamausername]

Are we rushing to lynch Rishi?

I'm not seeing any particular reason to delay it.

[iamausername]

Yeah, I meant besides that, since Kison was asking as a reason not to have done that already.

[iamausername]

Yeah, it's like we're in twilight, except we're waiting for Kison to do his investigatory vote-hopping instead of waiting for the mod to post the lynch scene.

[iamausername]

If not a full massclaim, how about if just anyone who has a role that could have prevented a kill last night claims?

I'd still be in favour of a full massclaim though. I think it's almost a certainty that we only have one scum left, and with no town deaths yet, it's entirely possible that we'll be able to coordinate power role actions to guarantee a town victory.

[iamausername]

Haven't heard much from Iam today.

Yeah, I'm on LA for the rest of December, and frankly, I can't see us not winning at this point, so this game is kind of low priority for posting.

I vote AGAINST lynching anderson.


Ill leave it to the rest of you to put the info from what little posts I made to put two and two together.

IM sure the scum did a no kill to frame him for todays lynch.

If I'm putting the info you've given together correctly, I have no idea why you wouldn't just claim at this point. I can't really see a downside to it, tbh. I don't support the no lynch plan/block anderson plan if Grimmy can clear anderson already, because if that is the case, blocking anderson again is a waste of time.

[iamausername]

Grimmy, anderson, do you guys think maybe you could drop a few more 'subtle' hints that you're masons? It's just I'm not sure that everyone has realised that the two of you are masons. But let's keep it quiet, we wouldn't want the scum to figure out that you're masons, after all.

[iamausername]

Could someone explain why this is obvious? And does it require thematic knowledge or do I just fail at picking up breadcrumbs?

Karl Agathon, AKA "Helo" is married to Sharon Agathon, which is the role name that Grimmy claimed. So, that crumb needs flavour knowledge. Grimmy's "I am absolutely certain that anderson is town" crumbs, on the other hand, do not.

[iamausername]

OK, so firstly, Grimmy and anderson need to explicitly state whether or not they know each other to be town. And secondly, Grimmy needs to explain why the hell he daykilled Fark, of all people. I mean seriously, what the frak, Grimmy?

[iamausername]

Wooo, Sarnath'd.

[iamausername]

unvote

SHaron Agathon was Cavil's lover after she left Karl, and she was sabotaging the Fleet due to latent Cylon programming long before she was outed as a Cylon, and then joined Cavil's faction.

That's Sharon

Valerii

(aka Boomer, aka Rishi), not Sharon Agathon (aka Athena, aka Grimmy).

Anyway, I've got today's results back from the mod, so time for claiming is now. camn is probably scum.

First of all: I am Gaius Balter [sic, I'm sure Gaeta will authorise those ballot papers anyway], and I have invented another crappy cylon detector. Twice per day, I can test someone's blood to find out if they are a cylon. Only problem is, my test has a 40% chance of failing.

Now, at first I was thinking that this was a ridiculously good power, because I thought that meant a 40% chance of getting an 'investigation failed' and no result. But I later found out it actually means a 40% chance that my result will be 'insane'. Which makes the power rather less useful, in fact. And THEN I found out that there appear to be a whole bunch of cylons aligned with the town, which would have made it even more useless, were it not for our mass-raceclaim. Props to Elmo for pushing that one.

But anyway, I figured the only way this would ever give me useful results would be to investigate the same person repeatedly, so I have used both my day one, both my day three, and both my day four investigations on KingEnigma/camn. Day two, I switched to Tarhalindur/Kison, since I figured his innocent result meant the two of them were either both scum, or both town, but camn just kept on acting scummy and we've probably only got the one scum left, so I'm figuring that either Kison is naive, or camn has immunity to his investigations. Neither seem particularly unlikely, since we apparently have three sorta-cop roles (at least).

My results so far say: camn is a cylon, camn is a cylon, Kison is not a cylon, Kison is not a cylon, camn is a cylon, camn is a cylon, camn is not a cylon, camn is a cylon.

I'm assuming that we only have one scum left, who is a cylon. camn and Kison both claimed to be humans. Therefore:

If camn is scum & Kison is not, they've gone SSSSSSIS
If Kison is scum & camn is not, they've gone IIIIIISI
If both are town, they've gone IISSIISI

Chance of the first case happening = (0.6^7)*0.4 = 0.01119744 (A)
Chance of second case happening = (0.4^7)*0.6 = 0.00098304 (B)
Chance of third case happening = (0.6^3)*(0.4^5) = 0.00221184 (C)

Since it's certain that one of these three did happen, A/(A+B+C) gives us the probability for case 1, B/(A+B+C) gives case 2, C/(A+B+C) gives case 3.

Which all adds up to:

78% - camn is scum
7% - Kison is scum
15% - both are town

Next post I'll do some traditional scumhunting and put together a case against camn, but for now I'll just stick with my mathematical mumbo jumbo. Still want Grimmy to explain why on earth he killed Fark, but I don't think he's our man. And I honestly don't understand why anyone is gunning for anderson.

p.s. check out the first letter (ignoring quotes) in each of my first ten posts for some tasty bread (all of these were before I got clarification on the no result/insane confusion, I believe).

Vote: camn

[iamausername]

*prod'd*

Hey, I'm still here. I'll get on with posting a case on camn soon, promise. I will say that I'm surprised her reaction to my semi-guilty wasn't either "you're lying, vote: iamausername" or "well there's still a 15% chance I'm town, you must have just been unlucky", but I don't think her actual response makes her look any better, that's for sure.

[iamausername]

Why I won't be considering a vote change until camn is dead

:

I got an idea, I'm not going to post anything for a while, cause apparently those who don't post are invisible and because I'm here contributing I'm getting asked redundant questions.

As I've said before, I found it extremely suspicious that KingEnigma was allowed to completely get away with a plan of "lurk until they leave me alone" even when he

stated up front that that was his plan

. If you were scum, and this guy was not your buddy, would you not be chomping at the bit to toss a noose around his neck then and there? I'm pretty sure I would.

I think Timeater may be crazy. But I don't think its impossible for him and Farkshinsoup to be scum together.

Just gonna let this one speak for itself.

Don't have anything further to say from KingEnigma's reign, because he really did hold true to his promise of being a lurking lurker who lurks, and I don't think I can state enough how scummy I find that.

camn comes in around the same time as Elmo proposes the mass race-claim, and acts all kinds of clueless as to what is going on. I'm particularly having trouble buying her apparently not understanding why forbiddan was asked to claim at L-1. It really feels like she's feigning ignorance about things to stall on the whole race-claim deal. This is not the only time she appears to be feigning ignorance.

This slightly bothers me.
But this whole massclaim thing has bothered me.

But I guess I have to play.
To the best of my knowledge, I am not a cylon.

FOS: ELMO

for engineering this massclaim thing so early. I think it tells us much less than we think. . . and gives the scum a lot of targets.
Hopefully it will work out.

LIAR LIAR PANTS ON FIRE. And if the entire case I had on camn was this, I would not even be considering a vote change until camn is dead. There is absolutely no reason that a townie should lie here. None.

In my head, I can see setups that may or may not exist where race-claiming could be hurting us. But there really is no discussion here, because it's done. I don't think it SHOULD have been done, but it is.

I think there is a discussion here. Show me some potential setups where the race-claim would have hurt us. Tell me why you didn't explain these thoughts and refuse to claim, rather than just straight up lying about your claim. MAKE ME BELIEVE.

Hey, remember when I said that Fark's random vote was sort of scummy because it implied that he was assuming cylon=scum despite claiming to be a pro-town cylon, and all of a sudden this incredibly opportunistic and scummy wagon grew on Fark in like five seconds?

Well, I just wanted to point out that the second & third votes on that were MacavityLock and camn, respectively. And that camn immediately demanded a full-claim from Fark on that basis alone, despite having previously made so, so many statements saying she was anti-any-claims-ever, to the point where she'd outright lie about whatever minor claim she did make out of some nonsensical paranoia that saying "I'm a cylon" would lead the scum to instantly deduce her full name, role and credit card number.

Oh, and then after Fark has claimed, she moves straight onto this:

Jesus. This game gets weirder and weirder.
Destructor better give us a full reveal in the end.

I'm OK with a Grimmy Lynch, if we have to lynch someone.

why?

I will unvote once the claim has been posted.

this is weak, generally.
Also.. at least he isn't claiming a power role.
ALSO.. he IS a hard read.

But, if he has any more claiming to do... now is the time.

I will keep my vote on no-lynch for now, just in case anyone wants to put things off a day

so wait

And for Clarity.. I

don't

want nameclaims from ANYONE.

^ this is another one of those big ol' lies that "helps" the "town" is it?

At the start of D2, camn goes straight after Fark (maybe the biggest known threat to the scum at that point) and ignores obvscum Rishi. Goes after Fark with this astounding piece of craplogic, I might add:

So.. you area cylon allied with the cylons.
Mac was also a cylon allied with the cylons.

There was indeed a

cylon

mafia.

Cough splutter. Really now.

Post #706: "Rishi is so damn scummy. Look how scummy he is. Obviously, I should vote for the person that he is trying to get lynched."

p.s. The scum No Killed with the idea of getting anderson lynched.

WHY????

Why is this true?

Why not just kill anderson last night?
anderson would be dead.. and we would be here wondering who to lynch?

PLEASE spell it out for me!

Ohmygawd, how much is camn overplaying the "I don't understand why the scum would choose to no kill at all, no sir. I cannot conceive of the possibility that perhaps they would like to set up support for a fake claim of a role like, say, a jailkeeper. Or the incredibly obvious fact that if the scum kills anderson, the town chooses who gets lynched next, wheras if she leaves the town -- he or she, I mean. He or she. I don't know what gender the scum is. Because it sure isn't me. No sir. -- if HE OR she leaves the town to lynch anderson, then he (or she) gets to choose the next death. This entire concept is totally alien to me." JEEEEEEEEEZ.

And check it... now we know there are at least 3 factions. the Cylon Mafia. The Cylons. and the Fleet. I don't know if the cylons want us humans dead or not.... but I wouldn't put it past them!

...

I AM SO UNINFORMED. AS IS "UNINFORMED MAJORITY". LIKE TOWN. THAT'S ME. TOWN. I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE FUCK.

what i'm saying is, we had know since, like, halfway through day 1 that this was the case, pretty much. camn getting this burst of clarity after Fark's death is just utterly absurd.

I sometimes don't even read my PMs for the first few pages.. just to make sure I give an authentic townie-read.

This is not relevant to camn's scumminess in this game, but camn, this is lame as hell and you should stop doing it.

SO you knew beforehand that Grimmy was Sharon Agathon? And you guys have been talking at night this whole time?
And Grimmy involved you in a fake-claim?

And you don't think any of this is scummy?

OK, besides "involved you in a fakeclaim" (which... a) when did that even happen? and b) FAKE CLAIMS ARE SCUMMY, YOU SAY? OH MY.), why

should

anderson see any of this as scummy? Because it sure sounds like pretty normal mason behaviour to me.

point #93: prior to my claim, camn spent the whole of D4 trying to get Grimmy and anderson lynched (either or, she doesn't care which) for a significant period of D4. This is not a pro-town activity.

Because I had a good reason for it.

lol, no you didn't.

In fact, your "protips" seem to be saying that if I had claimed cylon, all the good things that happened STILL would have happened.
That doesn't look harmful!

case #1: camn fakeclaims human. good things happen, BUT I waste a bunch of investiagtions on her (this is a bad thing), she is revealed as a liar (this too).
case #2: camn claims truthfully. good things happen.

how can you not see that case #1 is more harmful. how.

to summarise: can we just lynch camn. please. please. just do it. please. now.

[iamausername]

Please, Iam, for your own meta.. come back and reread this post when I flip town.
I think it will be beneficial to you.

I think we can win DESPITE mislynching me. Mostly because of all the benefit that I achieved with my claim.

In the unlikely event that you really are town, it will be the fact that we managed to lynch two scum in two days that can afford us a mislynch. It will have absolutely zero to do with the 'benefit' you achieved by lying, because you achieved no such thing.

However.. from MY perspective.. in case #2.. I die early. Kison dies early.

Again, there is no reason that truthfully claiming your race would have increased your chances of dying.

So NOW a question for you, AND forbiddan.

If claiming cylon was so NEUTRAL, so SAFE.... then, if I were scum, why would I have avoided it?

This is a serious question.

c

Because, presumably, the safeclaims your team were given included two humans (Felix Gaeta & ???) and only one cylon (Natalie), and you did not have any reason to expect that your lie would be exposed.

For instance. If it is cylon-scum vs. human+the final five, with the Five being power roles.
Thus the town gets no info from knowing race, yet the cylon know who the Five are, and thus who the PRs are.

Except we'd already had two full-claims (Tar and fl) at that point, both of which contradicted this theory. Did you think they were both lying?

Actually, It was Grimmy's explanation that changed my mind on them. Not everything is about you ..

I'm not the one who's supposedly been assuming that I clearly pose so much more of a threat to the scum than anyone else that if they ever got even an inkling of my role, they'd kill me on the spot.

And how is it anti-town to push lynches on people you think are scum?

It was the part about not caring which of Grimmy or anderson was lynched that was my main point there.

Why? It improves my game, and throws off my meta.

See here.

And are YOU saying fakeclaims are scummy?

Um, yes. That's why the "I will not consider changing my vote until camn is dead", remember? YOU'RE the one who's trying to argue that they're not.

I am not the first person this game to admit to a fake claim...

Could you possibly answer my "when did that even happen?" question, because I really think I'm missing something here.

[iamausername]

Still here, still want camn dead.

If camn's not the last scum, then I think has to be Elmo, just because I'm convinced that everyone else is town for one reason or another. But seriously, it's camn.

T-t-tunnelvision! T-t-tunnelvision! (to me, to you)

[iamausername]

Why are you convinced FL is town?

Her claim. Since no one else had claimed anything at that point, I don't believe that she'd think of feigning confusion as to whether she was town or scum, unless she actually had that confusion, and I don't think scum would actually have that confusion.

What do you think about camn's obvious nervousness around the subject of claims? Do you think she was setting up e.g. a doc claim?

Some sort of power role claim, yeah.

Do you have any reason to think I'm scum?

Not really, I just don't have any particularly compelling reason (besides "is not camn", which is pretty darn compelling) to believe you are town, either.

Do you think Flask is wrong about me?

No, because I think camn is the last scum. If I'm proved wrong about this, I'll reconsider the question.

I will expect a sweet, heartfelt apology when this game is over!

I wouldn't.

My current sketch is to lynch FL, then no lynch continuously with camn protecting Kison, until either Kison has claimed results on everyone or there is a nightkill. How does that sound?

Why lynch FL first? Why not go with no lynching from the start?

Because I have a stronger case on someone else and don't want to release it since I don't trust it. My intuition screams camn. I trust it over my logic.

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. How, exactly, do you measure which case is 'stronger', if not by which one you believe in more?

Clearly, I understand the strength of your desire to see camn lynched, but if you have that much of a case on someone else, you should really post it.

[iamausername]

Alright then.

Unvote, Vote: forbiddanlight

.

I can't see how we could possibly lose at this point anyway, and there's always a chance that I'm wrong about her. Let's just get it over with.

[iamausername]

Let's not hammer No Lynch before Kison has a chance to get an investigation in.

[iamausername]

Yesterday, I got Elmo is a cylon, Elmo is not a cylon. So that was useless. Still waiting on today's results.

I realised overnight that my main reason for thinking Kison is town (my results say there's only a 7% chance he's scum) don't apply, because that was working on the assumption that camn would have to be human for Kison to be scum.

That plus the fact that the lack of kills don't make sense if camn is scum, unless she just felt like wasting everyone's time, lead me to the conclusion that it's probably Kison.

[iamausername]

That works too.

Vote: Elmo

If Kison's lying, we lynch him tomorrow.

[iamausername]

Full summary of role PM: I'm Kara Thrace, a Colonial. I woke up on this basestar with no idea of who anybody else actually is and no idea what to do... except for my visions. I painted what I remembered of the visions (to assist with memory) then tried to help everyone out as best I can. If I'm concentrating enough on a player, I may be able to recognize them as a dangerous person (I have to take a second look at the paintings to double check, hence the receive results at night).

I am one of the Five.
I am Samuel Anders, which I breadcrumbed with my first post.
I AM affiliated with the fleet. I received no indication that I was into "unification". My place is with the Fleet.
I am a Jailkeeper, though that wasn't what my PM called it. That is I roleblock and protect.

Quoting both claims for everyone's convenience.

There is nothing in camn's claim that makes it more accurately resemble my role than there is in Tar's.

[iamausername]

But I'd have to investigate you an infinite number of times to get a reliable result. I don't think I can be bothered to wait that long to possibly improve a town win with three dead townies to a town win with two dead townies.

[iamausername]

f) Des is modding this game, no we do not have a day unlimited investigative role and a night jailkeeper, what the shit are you smoking; and now camn is cleared, so hurrrrrr it's kison

This is a pretty compelling argument, though. If there was an investigation immune scum, I could just about buy this happening, but since I doubt either of Macavity or Rishi were one of those, I'm gonna have to say no to that one.

Unvote, Vote: Kison

[iamausername]

Scum got absolutely schooled.

gg

<3

So say we all.