The Trials - ENDGAME


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Post Post #168 (isolation #0) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:03 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 119, Princess Leia wrote:
In post 4, Gypyx wrote:Wooo hello everyone, btw i have a curse that makes me alternate scum and town games, can i be conftown? K thx
I'm suspicious in part because I looked into this, and it isn't true at all. You rolled town twice in a row, and also rolled scum twice in a row.

Gives me even more inclination that you're setting in gambler's fallacy psychological tricks on us to make us think you're town.
Somebody called for a gambler's fallacy?

In post 6, Gypyx wrote:I have a theory that every trial is influenced by the trials that happened before btw

Also, might be me overanalysing wording but "the game starts with 12 vanilla town and 3 mafia goon" leaves room open for us gaining PR's later, does that seem like a realistic possibility?
OP said that there are 6 possible trials, based on day and alignment. I don't think that they're based on previous results; I think there's D1 town, D1 mafia, D2 town, D2 mafia, D3 town, and D3 mafia, and what those are should already be set. Scum team also decides on consequences, if I understood the setup correctly, so it's possible that their choices will change things more than the results.
In post 20, Battle Mage wrote:big balls Mage here, volunteering to do the first trial.

Vote: Battle Mage
In post 24, Gypyx wrote:
In post 0, Not Known 15 wrote:bad executions can be VERY bad for either team, especially a Day 1 scum execution.
Because this, going willingly to trial D1 is against your alignement in every case, even more than normally
I disagree with gypyx here. You can, as town, get a win for yourself even if your team loses, making a jester-like play possible (but if you jesterwin here, it's because you did well and that will help town). We know that trials are difficult for town to succeed. With no mention of mafia, I'm inferring that it's not difficult for mafia to succeed. However, passing trials helps town, not the team of whoever passed, so sending scum to a trial will give them a situation where they need to decide to help town at the risk of their own success, or fail and hope that one of their buddies also doesn't go to trial.

It's better for us to send scum to trial. It's bad news for us to send lynchbait to trial. It can be good for us to send competent town to trial, but at the end of the day I think it just comes down to, scumhunt and eliminate scum.
In post 93, RedPanda wrote:not gonna lie though I was planning on trying the same thing as battlemage and try and talk myself of the wagon. If it failed I still had a win con in trial. BM is either obvtown or supergambitscum.
I agree with this. I've been trying to think whether it's better to send competent town or scum to trial D1. So BM can be town for now.
In post 137, Gypyx wrote:
In post 126, shellyc wrote:Gypyx's responses give me the vibe of scum being cornered tbh
Cornered on what lmao, this whole conversation had no link to the game
Weird that you don't see it, or are trying to brush it off.


Also, V/LA until Saturday, more emphasis on limited access. I'll be around but won't really be able to focus on the game until then.
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Post Post #330 (isolation #1) » Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:12 am

Post by Marashu »

Catching up
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Post Post #331 (isolation #2) » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:19 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 172, Titus wrote:I'm not reading pages of people quadra posting. If you got something to say, be more efficient.
Alright
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Post Post #332 (isolation #3) » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:20 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 193, Gypyx wrote: Quoting public info there :

"The results of trials can be changed by other trials."

And yes, sending comptent town might be helpful, but that means they won't be here to help later, plus scum exe are VERY bad apparently, i think this outweights any advantage that trialing town could give

##############

Well, if you see anything, why aren't you pointing it out / voting me?
Sure, results can change. Doesn't mean the trials themselves will change.

As for why I was waiting, I wanted to wait for shellyc to address it first in case it was different from what I saw. I felt like you got caught in having shown a mindset that you would be around in Exelo and were trying to brush it off as a joke. Like I said, though, I was pretty distracted; I'm backpedaling on that one now, because I see that the Exelo post itself was a joke.
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Post Post #333 (isolation #4) » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:20 am

Post by Marashu »

Could someone please explain to me what people are expecting from DGB and why? I feel like there's a BoP here but from what I've seen I don't know why.
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Post Post #334 (isolation #5) » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:21 am

Post by Marashu »

I've seen making fabricated scumslips from town before. That said, when I saw it, it was meant to gauge the towniness/scuminess of the person being targeted, so it strikes me as weird to do this to someone who is V/LA, or at least not waiting that it was fabricated until the person got back to see if she got nervous. I do think Fidget's reaction was appropriate. I can't tell if Titus just handled that clumsily or was trying to make a show of it.
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Post Post #335 (isolation #6) » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:21 am

Post by Marashu »

It may be a bit late, but I want to
shamelessly sheep BM
send PL/PP to trial. VOTE: Pickaxe Pete
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Post Post #423 (isolation #7) » Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:19 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 364, Tayl0r Swift wrote: eddie - townish maybe?
Could you pleas explain this one? I get you were doing it from memory, but what memory was it that led you to this?
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Post Post #424 (isolation #8) » Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:19 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 414, Gypyx wrote:Hmmmm i think figet's reaction to titus's reaction test feels like paranoia, i'd say scum!paranoia but not sure about this one
What does that mean? Wouldn't scum paranoia be fake paranoia? So, does it feel like paranoia or does it feel fake?
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Post Post #425 (isolation #9) » Sun Sep 20, 2020 4:24 am

Post by Marashu »

Pete not wanting to interact with any slot other than shellyc is not a good look.
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Post Post #563 (isolation #10) » Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:27 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 543, shellyc wrote:VOTE: PlusJoy
pressure vote, also my biggest SR atm
What makes this a pressure vote?
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Post Post #674 (isolation #11) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:31 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 636, Gypyx wrote:I mean... 3 peeps to gladiate : 0 scum = horrible / 1 scum = failure / 2 scum = success / 3 scum = perfect

I find it really fitting tbh, and maybe scum has a say in the result
That was my take-away from it too.
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Post Post #675 (isolation #12) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:32 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 637, pob long wrote: I find it really fitting tbh, and maybe scum has a say in the result
for day 1??? thats way too powerful[/quote]
In post 658, pob long wrote:??????????/ did I miss something completely Ridiculous???
Is this real? We were warned in the OP that the game could be swingy, which is why who gets sent to trial is important.
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Post Post #676 (isolation #13) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:32 am

Post by Marashu »

(Of course I broke a quote on a pagetop...)
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Post Post #677 (isolation #14) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:37 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 662, Titus wrote:TS: Plus is obvscum, so he can't be scum. So let's vote the vocal townie out inside because of gut.

Me: Gut is not a valid reason. Town should vote out obvious scum. There's no evidence to support scum picking the gladiate.
In post 664, Fidget wrote:I'm guessing shelly picked out the gladiate, and the results of her trial is determined by how many scum she picked. 0 - horrible consequences for town and she loses, 1 - better, she doesn't lose and we got a chance, 2+ she wins on the spot and we get great odds.

Something like that.

Sure scum could have picked it too but that feels a lot less elegant of a game mechanic. Cause then there'd be obviously 2 town 1 scum gladiated and it just seems like it'd be messy to me.
I agree that it's unlikely that scum picked the gladiate, but I disagree that shellyc picked the gladiate, largely because looking at shellyc's reads, she had plus and pete as partners, so the gladiate as her solve feels weird to me. I'm not sure how the gladiate was created, but it was probably the result of the trial. I just don't think it was the trial itself.
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Post Post #678 (isolation #15) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:38 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 618, PlusJOYED wrote:
In post 593, shellyc wrote:yes. PlusJoy is a stronger scumread to me atm with even less of a solving mindset / overall blendiness
jokes on you im trying to get put on trial town be damned
guess I haven't done a good job if only you have voted me, how can I scumslip harder?
In post 653, PlusJOYED wrote:VOTE: noseferatu
Why did you want to go to trial? Why are you not trying to go to trial now?
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Post Post #679 (isolation #16) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:48 am

Post by Marashu »

Not sure if it's coincidence, but all 3 in the gladiate were on the shellyc wagon.
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Post Post #761 (isolation #17) » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:05 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 724, Fidget wrote: I would be beyond annoyed if shelly getting a horrible result made it so we can't hit scum today. That's just infuriating sounding
I really don't think this is the case, but if it is, we'd need to make sure we're sending someone who can pass the next trial.
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Post Post #762 (isolation #18) » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:05 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 742, Saudade wrote:Im gonna sound a little bit arrogant but im a king at this game and i know nosferatu is maf
Well I'm convinced.
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Post Post #763 (isolation #19) » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:06 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 728, Vecna wrote:
In post 681, PlusJOYED wrote: cause it seemed fun and I was null on shelly, and mildy wanted to mess with shelly
but then i realized it"s kind of throwing to do so
yikes, this does not mesh at all with the town mindset of hammering to get scumread
I agree. And right now the biggest defense I've seen is that plus is "too scummy to be scum".

VOTE: PlusJOYED
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Post Post #764 (isolation #20) » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:09 am

Post by Marashu »

@Nos, let's say you're right about being in a horrible result scenario and all 3 of you are town. Who do you send to trial?
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Post Post #814 (isolation #21) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:28 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 785, Fidget wrote:
In post 764, Marashu wrote:@Nos, let's say you're right about being in a horrible result scenario and all 3 of you are town. Who do you send to trial?
What are you trying to achieve with this question? Isn't this like saying "Which one of these three do you dislike the most?", but not in an AI way, since all three are confirmed town in that scenario.
No. So what I was trying to achieve was seeing his thought process, so I guess how he got there was more important to me than the answer. I guess it really didn't do much, now that I think about it, but I think the answer at least showed some internal consistency.
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Post Post #857 (isolation #22) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:46 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 855, Tayl0r Swift wrote:im willing to compromise on plus here if no one wants nos.
I'm not a fan of the nos wagon. Come join us on Plus.
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Post Post #858 (isolation #23) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:46 am

Post by Marashu »

@Eddie what are you trying to accomplish?
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Post Post #918 (isolation #24) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:09 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 890, EddieFenix wrote:
In post 858, Marashu wrote:@Eddie what are you trying to accomplish?
I have a plan that I wish to not reveal yet. However, if you had a shot, who would you shoot?
Right now I'm feeling like you tbh. I'm pretty suspicious of you, and not sure if I'd be able to build up enough of a case on my own to catch you. I didn't like your D2 entrance (how did you know BM was dead but didn't know it was a gladiate? And also you seem to think you would have been able to stop the shelly elim?). I've kind of been watching for where you would vote, but all you've really been doing this day is offering free rubber bullets.

@Noraa just to make sure you don't miss it, we're in a gladiate right now where Nosferatu, DrippingGoofball and PlusJOYED are the only trial candidates for the day, which is why you should ISO them.
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Post Post #981 (isolation #25) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:21 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 945, Noraa wrote:yeah uh time to go back and read the first post again but either way still tell me who you think the scum team is
See:
In post 622, Not Known 15 wrote:
As you awaken, you notice that Nosferatu, PlusJOYED and Dripping Goofballs are trapped in a small space before the door to the next trials, surrounded by walls with small open windows and a locked door. The windows are too small for escape but you can reach through... it seems like you have to send one of these three to the trials. Then you notice that Battle Mage
is missing, and you see the symbol with the house you saw yesterday etched into the ground where they were before.



Nosferatu, PlusJOYED and DrippingGoofball have been gladiated!


BattleMage, Vanilla Townie, vanished!
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Post Post #982 (isolation #26) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:21 am

Post by Marashu »

Honestly I'm not sure what else to say at this point. I think nos is town, and plus is more likely than DGB to be scum. I don't know if I'll have time to answer before deadline, but if anyone wants me to ISO anyone, I can at least have that ready by D3.
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Post Post #1067 (isolation #27) » Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:43 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1041, DrippingGoofball wrote:
Who would you shoot?
Who would you shoot?
Who would you shoot?
Who would you shoot?
Who would you shoot?
Who would you shoot?
Who would you shoot?
I HAVE PLANZZZZ

That was a whole lot of scummy nothing, wasting the town's time.

You're not looking for scum, your whole strategy is to cause unforced errors in as many players as possible so that you can fabricate scum cases later.
This is kind of what I was trying to getting at on D2. VOTE: EddieFenix
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Post Post #1068 (isolation #28) » Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:43 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1045, Tayl0r Swift wrote: i call BS on that post anyway - nos joined the site in 15, gypyx this year, yet nos claims to have had a scumread for over 20 years?
I get this is a joke, but I'm troubled by the fact that it was over 20 years ago...
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Post Post #1070 (isolation #29) » Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:49 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1053, Fidget wrote:
In post 1023, Not Known 15 wrote:viywern went missing Night 2. They were a Vanilla Townie.
I wonder if PlusJOYED got to choose this.
Why are you assuming this anything other than the NK?
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Post Post #1158 (isolation #30) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:05 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 1086, Fidget wrote:Towards end of day two, pob long started getting a little suspected. Additionally, viywern made a grand total of 0 posts and was being replaced.

Does that sound like an optimal NK? That NK is great for town imo. Now, who is aligned with the town that could have caused weird fuckery to happen last night?
Ok, I can see the reasoning, even if I don't necessarily get behind it. viywern is also a weird choice for PlusJOY, and it's super weird if the mod just randomly selects a NK redirect.
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Post Post #1159 (isolation #31) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:05 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 1105, Noraa wrote:good case but also vecna isnt in the limpool for today ... right?
Why not?
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Post Post #1160 (isolation #32) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:08 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 1109, Fidget wrote: Nosferatu I'm particularly wary of since he just survived the last gladiate, I sort of hope there was 1 scum inside the gladiate, and I lean him over DGB.
In post 1145, Pickaxe Pete wrote:Shelly sent to Trial 1, Battle Mage vanishes, First Gladiate
We vote within the First Gladiate, and Plusjoy is set to Trial 2, viwyrn vanishes
I guess now we're voting to see who gets sent to Trial 3, and there will be a Second Gladiate?
Who chooses which players go into the Gladiate? Was there any scum in the First Gladiate?

It seems to me that there would be scum in the First Gladiate, and the we would be smart to look at Nosferatu and DGB.
Ok, I have a bit of a hot take here. I'm starting to wonder if shelly PASSED the first trial, and the REWARD was being able to set up the gladiate. And now that there were no obvious shenanigans, I'm thinking that PlusJOY FAILED the second trial. Passing a trial helps town, but failing only has a chance of hurting town. (Alternately, PlusJOY PASSED the second trial, and managed to redirect the NK to viywern). The one thing that doesn't make sense in this scenario is if the gladiate is a reward, why those three?

Actually, Nos continually insisting that all 3 of them were town is
interesting
. Like, if either Plus or DGB flipped town (as we know Plus did), then he still distanced himself, whereas if he's scum, that would only be revealed by a flip so he wouldn't be caught in the lie. So it's almost like hedging bets. I still feel like the Eddie slot is scum. But I'm starting to doubt my read on Nos.
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Post Post #1161 (isolation #33) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:09 am

Post by Marashu »

@mod
Eddie should be at 3. I should be at 1.
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Post Post #1162 (isolation #34) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:13 am

Post by Marashu »

I'll try to do an ISO of Eddie on Sunday (it's Thanksgiving weekend and tomorrow's when we're having our big meal, and we'll be hosting it so I'll be preoccupied tomorrow)
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Post Post #1257 (isolation #35) » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:03 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 1163, Titus wrote:Oh wow look who shows up like beetlejuice.
In post 1174, Titus wrote: Also Mara has the beetlejuice tell. His recent postings after being called out do nothing to move the game forward.
In post 1256, Titus wrote:@Taylor, I already told you why Mara is scum. Coasting, a lack of content, and beatle juice.
Just saying something doesn't make it true (even if you do say that name three times...) I'm not even sure where/why you think this. My usual habit is to try posting after work when I'm able - which is why most of my posts are between 4:30 and 8:30PM my time. I sometimes try to reply before bed as well, but that's when I'm most active during the week. The post you seem to be "calling out" is no different? So I'm really confused where you're coming from with that.
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Post Post #1258 (isolation #36) » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:03 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 1202, Noraa wrote:Taylor is my lock town rn and imma sheep her reads for now
In post 1204, Noraa wrote:VOTE: Glitch

cuz ur the Eddie replacement and Taylor thinks ur scum and I'll have a case on u soon after I ISO dive u
I'm not a fan of this, both because it's making it so that you don't need to defend your case, and because it feels like, for all your talk of not getting pocketed by TS, like you are trying to pocket TS.
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Post Post #1515 (isolation #37) » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:07 pm

Post by Marashu »

@Titus You keep saying I'm not making content. I feel like I have been. Help convince me you aren't scum looking for low-hanging fruit to send to trial. What do you want to know?
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Post Post #1516 (isolation #38) » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:08 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1514, Pickaxe Pete wrote:Look content!

Meanwhile Marashu's not posted for 50 hours. Maybe a flake there. Maybe Titus is onto something I guess.
Thanksgiving took more out of me than expected. :V
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Post Post #1524 (isolation #39) » Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:28 pm

Post by Marashu »

I'm still suspicious of the Glitch/Eddie slot, though I actually agree with his read on you. Noraa's recent posts have given me pause, so I think I want to ISO that slot soon. I don't really remember anything townie from Pete or Vecna.
Tayl0r and Fidget feel like town to me, and you're probably town as well. I have a hard time reading DGB. I keep going back and forth on Nos.

Could someone explain to me the case on gypyx? It seems like a lot of people are shading this slot and I don't know why.
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Post Post #1689 (isolation #40) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:51 am

Post by Marashu »

Lunch break post, so this will be a quick one (I can explain myself in about 4h) but I don't want it to come to random. If Glitch isn't happening, my compromise is Pete.

VOTE: Pickaxe Pete
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Post Post #1714 (isolation #41) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:02 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1710, Titus wrote:
In post 1689, Marashu wrote:Lunch break post, so this will be a quick one (I can explain myself in about 4h) but I don't want it to come to random. If Glitch isn't happening, my compromise is Pete.

VOTE: Pickaxe Pete
6 hours later...
I'm here. I'm catching up.
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Post Post #1833 (isolation #42) » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:00 pm

Post by Marashu »

Sorry, I was pretty busy and ended up neglecting the game. The reads I gave earlier were based on what I remembered and skimming, more than an in-depth read through of the game. D3 I was relying on others players, and I think it shows. So even through my D3 play suffered for it, now that we're in ExeLo (I'm not willing to risk that we aren't), I'm ready to approach this fresh. So it's time to wax my skis and get moving!

@Titus I don't know if you're using your own copy, but I notice you have Vecna coloured in for your VCA but don't have Noraa coloured in as of VC 2.6.

I'm on board with Gypyx's reactions to D4. I really do think that shelly passed which is why we got the gladiate. And if two had already failed and a third went to trial, wouldn't it automatically go to maximum failure, and the 3rd trial would be a pass? Or am I reading this wrong:
In post 0, Not Known 15 wrote:Trials interrupted by a Maximum Failure count as Pass for win conditions.
@DGB if scum!Titus and scum!Nos, would Titus be working so hard (and so blatantly) to defend Nos?
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Post Post #1847 (isolation #43) » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:20 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1834, DrippingGoofball wrote:The payoff of three night kills was worth it.
I guess, but it still feels risky as scum.
Glitch wrote:
In post 1833, Marashu wrote:@DGB if scum!Titus and scum!Nos, would Titus be working so hard (and so blatantly) to defend Nos?
In my only game with scum Titus her strategy is less to defend her partner our right but more to persuade the town to SR elsewhere more. So not to make Nos look more townie but to make someone else (you yesterday, me today) look more scummy thereby drawing votes away from them.

I'm would not rule out {Titus + Nos + ???} at this point.
Hm, ok, that does make some sense.
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Post Post #1848 (isolation #44) » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:31 pm

Post by Marashu »

Nos was the one who originally said that it was an all-town gladiate. Now Titus is starting to say the same thing. I'm not sure how the mechanic works but I'm feeling like scum is trying to hide behind it. Gypyx was the one who proposed that the number of town/scum was dependent on the result of the trial in and people agreed on it, but if it's wrong and the gladiate itself was the reward, and nothing would have happened on a fail (which is what I'm currently thinking), then it becomes very appealing to scum to use that. I don't see how Nos saying that it's an all-town gladiate benefits town but it could be beneficial to scum.

Titus might be saying it was all-town now to keep us from looking too deeply at D2, or too closely at Nos. Or it could be her digging in her heels - I think it would make more sense for scum!Titus to be agreeing with Nos' stance on D2 rather than picking it up on D4.
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Post Post #1849 (isolation #45) » Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:40 pm

Post by Marashu »

Oh, and because it was a bit ambiguous in my last post, I do think Gypyx is town. I think he's shown the right amount of lost-but-trying-to-figure-things-out where it comes to the mechanics, and makes me think he's town for meta reasons (specifically because he appears to be picking up scumhunting techniques from previous games I've been in with him).
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Post Post #1914 (isolation #46) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:26 pm

Post by Marashu »

Ok, spent the evening doing the work and going over D3. Posting my notes now.
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Post Post #1915 (isolation #47) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:28 pm

Post by Marashu »

Titus' behavior pattern on D3 for Noraa vs. Pete wagon was pretty bad. This is what she said: "I am not switching to Noraa while Nos is in danger." She was voting town!Pete at the time. With regards to the Noraa vs. Pete wagon itself, Titus said "Objectively, I should just tie the wagons since I am unsure by play." She didn't care who was eliminated, as long as it wasn't Nos. In , Glitch votes for Nos. , which comes right after, is Titus coming in with "Glitch you give me sads."

For somebody who declared she could equally vote Noraa or Pete to save Nos, I notice in her ISO that she challenges and criticizes Noraa a lot. Titus said of Nos, rather egocentrically, that "He's being suspected because he is the biggest town willing to work with me." She talks a lot about Noraa. So I went to check how many mentions of Pete there were in her ISO. Result: not a lot! Early in the game, she said: "Not touching the Pickaxe Pete wagon based on who got on." I guess she changed her mind later because she was herself on the Pete wagon for the elimination. Titus said at one point: "It's another wagon that gained steam based on town." She calls Pete town. Put a pin in that. In her post she answered "Because I am voting a different scum. Second, I am not 100% sure. I am extrapolating based on how easy his wagon took. It could be that Taylor is scum and the wagon on me which morphed into Pickaxe Pete could be scum. Of course that means Fidget would be less likely to be scum due to the neighbor rules in VCA." Titus full on calls Pete town, he could be town because his wagon was fast (excluding any possibility that he was objectively scummy) and yet she consistently hints that Pete could be scum, too. Then when it comes time to save her precious Nos... off with your head, Pete! Titus had several different opinions of Pete at the same time for big parts of the game. And wants to save Nos, and guns blazing for me.

And the thing that really gets me about this, I'm not feeling any paranoia from Titus. Town!Titus would stop and ask why Nos was engaging with her the way he was(which seems to be the main reason for the TR, that he's agreeing with her).
In post 1854, Titus wrote:In practice, I'll townread for today anyone willing to vote Mara with me.
This is a big yikes. It's like she doesn't need to worry about later days.
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Post Post #1916 (isolation #48) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:30 pm

Post by Marashu »

I'm trying to get a handle on a read of the Nos slot, but it has too few readable posts. Examples: "content could do more but i am always obvtown" "send me in there then" "put ur money where ur mouth is" "conf town >:)" "someone didnt listen to folklore" "in a galaxy far, far, away" "huh" ":(" Maybe someone more experienced can get a read on that, but it's way beyond what I can do. Which begs the question: Where is Titus' confidence with this slot coming from?
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Post Post #1917 (isolation #49) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:30 pm

Post by Marashu »

Regarding DGB, at some point Town!Pete had 5 votes and looked like a sure elimination. DGB was voting Pete, but she kept harping that Noraa is scum. Eventually, seven hours from the deadline, she coaxes Glitch for voting Noraa (who is also his scum read) and of course Pete votes Noraa for selfish reasons. If she was scum she could have just stood back and let the Pete elim happen because it was going to happen anyway. Titus was around, but wouldn't switch, and Gypyx flew in and hammered. There is no motivation for scum trying to whip up excitement for a counterwagon to town. It could have succeeded, so it's not like there was no chance of it happening.
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Post Post #1918 (isolation #50) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:31 pm

Post by Marashu »

Glitch also pushed for a last minute counter wagon to town. It was coming from a sincere place because since he entered the game, Glitch zoned in to Noraa as possible scum. I still have no clue what was happening with Eddie on D2, but I'm pretty sure I was tunneling that slot. I see now that he made numerous valid and convincing posts expressing this opinion, so he's pretty solid on it. For a short time, Glitch even voted for Titus' pet Nos. His frustration at the start of D4 felt genuine - there really was nothing (except the time stamp) to indicate that N3 was going to be extra long. I feel that he managed to redeem the EddieFenix slot.
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Post Post #1919 (isolation #51) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:32 pm

Post by Marashu »

Tayl0r cast a vote for town!Pete and disappeared so I can't town read her like I town read some others at the end of last day. It's funny, Tayl0r says:"i dont know why its so hard to get people to vote titus and its spooking me" while Titus is lamenting that no one is voting scum, and scum is lurking letting the town rip each other. You know who was lurking and Titus is defending? Nosferatu. Tayl0r's ISO has a lot of questions and at some point she says: "my solve is {nos, titus, glitch}" I'm almost certain that if both Nosferatu and Glitch are scum, it would be very unusual for Tayl0r if she was scum, to distance from two scumbuddies at once like this. Tayl0r is also pushing very hard on Titus and she even started the D3 trying to drum up a wagon on Titus. Tayl0r is correct in pointing out that: "titus is in favor of pushing one particular lurker today, but not all of them. titus didnt join me in pushing a different lurker earlier. titus is not explaining what makes one lurker worthy of a vote while another Tayl0r also said: "youre defending nos without content. no one is saying "marashu is obvtown". we are just asking you to explain how you can say "nos is obvtown" when nos looks to me exactly like marashu does." It is a very important point since later in the game, Titus does just that by selectively going after me and protecting Nosferatu. Some people will argue that scum will distance. But in this game where we have not eliminated any scum, this assumption is upside down and I am more interested to see who protected who, and Titus deftly and definitively protected Nosferatu.
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Post Post #1920 (isolation #52) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:34 pm

Post by Marashu »

I'm in an interesting position with Gypyx - we've played twice before, but both times I was scum and he was town. His attempt to figure out the mechanics and also make sure that things are clear is making me think of how he approached our last game together, where he proposed a mechanical solve for the game. This comment to Noraa stands out: "Yes I know that you suck at looking town, but even while knowing that, i'm suspicious of your playstyle rn" He is quick to attribute Noraa scumminess to playstyle issues, I can easily imagine soft hearted scum not wanting to go after Noraa. I don't think scum!Gypyx hammers town!Pete with only a few hours left before deadline. Gypyx also noticed this about Titus: "Where have peoples been scumreading nos for working with you??? I don't think you have gone in detail about the scuminess of marashu, i definetly don't see what's screaming scum in his posts on my own And nosferatu doesn't qualify a lurker who's defended withtout content?" Titus never really gave a satisfactory answer for that. And between his attempt at a Vecna wagon and an attempt at a Nos wagon, I have to give him credit for trying to eliminate scummy players based on solid reasoning.
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Post Post #1921 (isolation #53) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:35 pm

Post by Marashu »

So right now I'm in a position where I have too much town, so I'm wrong somewhere, and my gut's still telling me Glitch, but it's late, and I'm tired of looking at the screen, and I don't know if I'm still just tunneling this slot.

@Gypyx - do you think Titus and Glitch would be SvS at this stage in the game?
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Post Post #1929 (isolation #54) » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:10 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 1922, Gypyx wrote:
In post 1920, Marashu wrote:His attempt to figure out the mechanics and also make sure that things are clear is making me think of how he approached our last game together, where he proposed a mechanical solve for the game
Huh, i don't recall that game you mention, which one was it?
... OMG I'm dumb. All game I thought it was you in Open 784 who came up with the plan for the hider to hide based on the player list. When I went to get the game number, I saw that it was word321. So I had the two of you confused. Word321's also the one who I saw learned from in my first game on site, and not you. We WERE in two games - Open 784 where you subbed in as a scum buddy, and another game where we were both town. Gah. So now I need to re-evaluate this slot, but that will need to wait until after work.
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Post Post #1948 (isolation #55) » Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:32 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1935, Titus wrote:I still think the gladiate was a failure and Day 2 was a success. Can anyone answer why scum kill wiyvern? That's what's required.

If Day 1 was a failure, then why are we supposing scum was in the gladiate at all? That would be a reward, not a failure.

If that's correct and Taylor is town, then it's all the more pressing that I convince Taylor and DGB that Nos is town.
OP says passing will help town. Failure
might
hurt town. So let's say that N1 was a fail. I guess a case could be made that 2 town and 1 scum might hurt town, but there's no maybe about it if there's 3 town in there. Let's also say that N2 was a success. How does the wiyvern NK help town? If the reward was some sort of redirect, why would Plus go for the pob long/wiyvern slot instead of the pickaxe pete slot, or the Nos slot? If there's one good thing that came from Eddie's D2, it's that we know where Plus would try to direct the NK.

To me it still makes more sense that N1 was a success and N2 was a failure.

Seeing how there hasn't been a post from anyone in like 27 hours, I'm guessing we're waiting on Nos' replacement?
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Post Post #2033 (isolation #56) » Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:08 pm

Post by Marashu »

In post 1988, maxwell wrote:Absolutely hate the living piss out of from Marashu, massive opening post that's largely IIoA, with light shade on gypyx toward the end of it.
In post 1992, maxwell wrote: from Marashu is pretty bad, more IIoA, fencesit on Titus in , only real contest seems to be sheeping battle mage in .
In post 2001, maxwell wrote: Marashu's posts continue to be absolutely horrible and offer nothing of value.
In post 2002, maxwell wrote:Vote in from Marashu is bad.
I get that you're still catching up, but this feels mostly like shading the person that Titus is trying to push. Would you mind being more clear about what's bad?

I want to wait to vote until you're fully caught up. For now, sleep.
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Post Post #2066 (isolation #57) » Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:02 am

Post by Marashu »

Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's gotta be maxwell/Titus/glitch in this scenario. But DGB doesn't want to vote Glitch.

VOTE: maxwell
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Post Post #2117 (isolation #58) » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:16 am

Post by Marashu »

GG Town! Many thanks to Not Known for running the game! Also thanks to Tayl0r for her great public thread presence, and to DGB for coming up with some great team strategery (and for helping me with posts). I was definitely the weak link for our team.
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Post Post #2118 (isolation #59) » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:18 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 2063, maxwell wrote:Marashu kept trying to discredit people for voting pete in his reads, meanwhile
he's almost everything he actually said about the slot while he was alive
.
So this is my biggest scumtell - I'm aware of it and am working on getting better at it, but it still keeps happening.
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Post Post #2122 (isolation #60) » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:36 am

Post by Marashu »

Thanks for subbing in so late maxwell - it's scary how accurate you were!
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Post Post #2124 (isolation #61) » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:19 am

Post by Marashu »

Also, that N2 trial was especially hard! Yikes! I mean, kudos for not getting any mafia in the guess list, but wow.
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Post Post #2151 (isolation #62) » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:35 am

Post by Marashu »

In post 2126, shellyc wrote:
In post 2124, Marashu wrote:Also, that N2 trial was especially hard! Yikes! I mean, kudos for not getting any mafia in the guess list, but wow.
nahhh I nailed DGB and was thinking taylor for a bit
Good job with finding DGB. I meant the N2 trial, though - needing to guess night kills, including the night kill for the following day (so much can change during the day that it's really hard to have that much forethought)
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Post Post #2152 (isolation #63) » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:39 am

Post by Marashu »

One thing about the punishment, we could choose whether or not the punishment kills flipped, but also we could keep killing so long as we stayed in ExLo ratio. For example, we could have also had myself and Titus killed, so it would be 3v2, but town wouldn't know who among the dead was scum. In the end we decided we were better off working as a team, and I would continue to be the low-hanging fruit.
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Post Post #2157 (isolation #64) » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:35 pm

Post by Marashu »

Horrible result N2 negates the reward for N3
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Post Post #2159 (isolation #65) » Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:57 pm

Post by Marashu »

It says it in the mod PT, in the Town Trial 2
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Marashu
Marashu
He/Him
Mafia Scum
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User avatar
Marashu
He/Him
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1488
Joined: March 15, 2020
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Location: Canada

Post Post #2161 (isolation #66) » Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:06 pm

Post by Marashu »

in the OP:
The results of trials can be changed by other trials.

In the mod thread specifically for N2:
Pick extremely wrong(0 points, Terrible) and the effects of a Trial 3 Pass/Failure result and Mafia Trial 1 Failure result are not applied.

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