Mini Normal 2168 | So Many Bats! | Game Over!

[PlusJOYED]

i still think hectic is town for admitting the bugspray crumb from norwee
i think its plausible from scum but I think it's much more likely to come from town. They don"t wanna make a confirmed townie if they can help it

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ok I think heres where im at
shelly or duppin is definitely scum. 99% sure its TvS, 1% its SvS but if it is thats so ballsy and I respect it

hectic is very unlikely to be scum with shelly considering he's bussing her here when it'd be pretty easy to side against duppin. I think if he is scum he'd have to be with duppin.

duppin to me has felt rather scummy most this game. I need to iso dive though.

shelly has made many questionable choices today. Either she's flustered scum trying to pocket me hard, since she thought I'd vote duppin right away and her partner would hammer, or she"s confused town. I genuinely think she's capable of making the claim as scum but it'd make way more sense to target me for consistency and since my mundi hammer was scummy. the swap on me is very odd if its from scum

the remaining slots to solve are uno, and dave. I firmly believe one of them is scum and the other is town.

Uno seems plausible, I have a similar gut read on them as I do duppin, and I think they are waiting it out and lurking as scum would be inclined to, quickhammer at the ready.
I think dave is town, mainly cause saudade was very townie to me. When I read suadade, he played exactly the same as he did in 2163 to me, he just went for another slot. Dave strikes me as genuine too at this point, but i need to hear more + reread.

So that being all considered, my most likely solve is duppin/uno. With hectic, me, shelly, and dave town.
I'm gonna iso dive later before I vote though + hear from dave today.

[PlusJOYED]

Also, I'm aware this is gamblers fallacy, but shelly being scum with noraa again seems like a stretch

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Before I make my choice, I need to:
reread noraa's interactions
reread duppin iso to elaborate on my gut
reread dave
reread uno

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Yeah, I got this feeling which is why I didn't mention it at all.

I really do think shelly is scum though, Plus. She's pocketed you and is way too confident you're town, it's TMI. Her being "dumb" is not because she's dumb, it's because those thoughts are fake.

@shelly: Why didn't you claim the guilty straight away?

because i was considering risk vs. reward in case duppin was PR

i overthought wayyyyyy too much

also confidence =! TMI, you're confident in scum!me, does this mean you claim scum with me.

programmed pet peeve but this should be !=

[PlusJOYED]

this is semi of an outside factor/meta but
I'd also think shelly is aware that I was salty af at her since 2163 ended, like frustrated enough to self vote in lylo as town. She's gotten me elimed imo 3 times as scum. Maybe she just feels bad, but she has to be somewhat aware I'd be more likely to go for her in a lylo situation since I don't wanna lose to scum!shelly again, which leads me to think she's town.

[PlusJOYED]

I think dave is town, mainly cause saudade was very townie to me. When I read suadade, he played exactly the same as he did in 2163 to me, he just went for another slot. Dave strikes me as genuine too at this point, but i need to hear more + reread.

Dave is not Saudade's replacement.

oh shit wtf I must've went too fast
who replaced saudade? who did dave replace?

[PlusJOYED]

ok my bad dave replaced mini
now im torn between uno and dave

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this is semi of an outside factor/meta but
I'd also think shelly is aware that I was salty af at her since 2163 ended, like frustrated enough to self vote in lylo as town. She's gotten me elimed imo 3 times as scum. Maybe she just feels bad, but she has to be somewhat aware I'd be more likely to go for her in a lylo situation since I don't wanna lose to scum!shelly again, which leads me to think she's town.

on the other hand it could also be a reason to pocket you if youre town

possibly, i think town shelly is more likely here though
also fyi shelly if ur scum this game and you win im never trusting you in a mafia game again lol, I'll go after you every time

[PlusJOYED]

pls show up dave

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it was actually the same reason i wanted to lim plus day 1 since he kept spamming elsewhere while not responding to pressure here

i dont remember that

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At the very least, I don't recollect any serious pressure day 1 or I wasn't threatened by it.

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Massclaim starting with me, eh?
VT, my least favorite role.

i am also vt

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mafia doctor
I'm guessing 1 other mafia pr.
i think yeah 1 of tracker or night 3 tracker is fake.

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I actually am very split with that claim
Like I think there is a very good chance duppin/hectic is the scumteam. Reason being, is that I think commuter even if 2 shot is too much protection. assuming maf get a day 1 town elim, they enter n1 with 3 maf and 9 townies to pick from.
with roleblocker and commuter, they have a 2/9 chance to miss their first NK. if rolestopper and commuter survive, which they should, the chance of getting a kill broken gets worse over time. coupled with how late this commuter claim is, I get the suspicion that this may be a way to end up with a shelly mislim from duppin/hectic scumteam. its also a convient reason for hectic to obvtown and live so long.
i also think shelly is capable of faking this. so im now very torn.
peddit yeah i mean commuter

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. . .
intent on duppin

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UNO thoughts on plus slot

you seem to have little-to-no-interest solving there for some reason

see, this post could be a pocket on me too since i said uno/duppin team. but the shelly pocket seems like such a longshot to attempt
god dammit

[PlusJOYED]

at the very least, hectics claim makes me sure that if duppin is red, hectic is his partner.
if shelly scum, it'd have to be dave or uno partner

[PlusJOYED]

hectic I respect you and think you'd be quite skilled enough to change my mind on duppin if ur scum. so here goes, hope this doesn't lose us the game
VOTE: duppin

[PlusJOYED]

oh
i thought it was 3 votes to elim today

[PlusJOYED]

im still likely to go duppin today
to sleep i go

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meh i typed out a duppin vote but imma sleep on it for now

[PlusJOYED]

team is either dave/shelly or hectic/duppin.
i need to see what dave does here

[PlusJOYED]

not gonna lie this 1v1 hasn't really swayed me. I'm waiting to hear from dave
shelly likes to bus. I'm having hard time that she would take a risk defending dave there, but i suppose its possible.
dave's been pretty inactive, my read on him is still pretty shakey. I think if he's scum it's because he's not able to convince me he's town. So I need to hear from him.

[PlusJOYED]

like, a shelly/dave team is possible but I think in that scenario shelly is carrying the scumteam. show me dave can walk on his own and is town.

[PlusJOYED]

cuz shelly tracked you and I've had a gutread against you most the game. And like I think Shelly is more likely to be town than you based on her play this game.
The issue with the Duppin/Hectic team is hectic has been obvtown most of the game for me, but his claim doesn't fit with shelly.
The issue with Shelly/dave is Shelly appears pretty town to me, but dave has been null.

[PlusJOYED]

As for NKA, Uno clears things up for me.
Dave living is NAI cuz he's elimable or scum
Hectic is scum or if town wouldn't get targeted
Uno was kind of with me and pretty town
Shelly is either scum or if killed as tracker would end duppin
I ended the day with a duppin vote, so me living would point towards shelly scum I think or if hectic thought he could convince me. I also think my death would lean in towards pushing uno to vote duppin so I could see either way

I have duppin, hectic, and shelly pretty sorted but not dave.

[PlusJOYED]

on god shelly if your scum this game I'm never trusting you in mafia again unless I am inclined to do so mechanically or we're scumbuddies
like if im vig or investigative I'll target you every time

[PlusJOYED]

plus you also realise that shelly actually slipped right? she knew dave would vote with her for no apparent reason.

where was this, please quote
I have evaluated you duppin. You're either scum or a pretty scummy townie.

[PlusJOYED]

that's also a good point. i think it'd be fishy if he lived as obvtown till lylo tho

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i feel like your posts have been more pushing an agenda rather than solving like most of this game. I just haven't seen a solvy mindset from you.

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So the Hectic claim changes the picture somewhat but I'll discuss Shelly without that.

Looking at it from the true claim point of view... Prompting your track target to at least crumb/soft if a PR is a +town move when there hasn't been a massclaim. Tracker is a really tricky role to play, especially as 1-shot and even more so as night-specific. I think the targeting on a weak TR is a little weird, unless the TR was semi-fake to instill a false sense of security in the target's ability to get away with making the kill. With 2 scum left and a night-specific shot, she'd be in a use it or lose it position, and tracking a largely scumread target would risk coming up blank because scumread!scum shouldn't make kills. I feel tracker is one of the weakest investigatives. I got really annoyed in the Gay Mafia team game when I saved my tracker shot for later and tracked my target to a kill, but almost got ignored because a couple people kept trying to elim me. I chose a previous TR to track in that game because Occam said the only solve was that one of my TRs had to be scum. Bottom line it's quite possible as a true claim from the mechanics and targeting point of view. There is more to say about Shelly, and balance. I'll make those points later.

From a fake claim point of view, this is an obviously horrible claim.

The

fake claim to make in this position to get a fake guilty is a

watch on the semi-conf player

. I find it hard to believe that a scumteam with daytalk would not hash out a fake claim and make the strategically best claim possible. Fake claiming a track guilty suffers right from the start because it's the investigation type that is statistically least likely to hit prior to getting down to one scum left. In this situation any fake claim that's going to result in lengthy discussion is a massively bad idea.

For balance purposes, if it's a true claim then mafia might have a ninja. The balance that has been revealed so far shows complementary roles, with a mafia doc to complement gunsmith, and weak FN to give a guilty where the gunsmith fails. The rolestopper would reduce the probability of other roles being successful without interfering with NK.

Shelly's handling of Duppin's response was weird, which I already pointed out. You'd think that as either alignment she'd look at what might defeat the role and be prepared for it. As scum she might be prepared for an admission that Duppin did indeed visit Bugs, and have rebuttal prepared for that. Scum!Shelly preparation for Duppin saying he didn't visit should be to just press the case. The "tracker miller" idea shouldn't ever enter her head as scum planning ahead. It shouldn't enter her head as town either, a town tracker is expecting a positive result to be either a TPR visiting or scum. So while it's very weird, I don't think that episode really means anything other than she's a very impulsive player who blurts out thoughts with little or no filtering.

Long story short, I think Shelly's claim is much more likely to be true than it is to be fake, in the absence of Hectic's commuter claim.
Now to cogitate again with that included.

this is pretty indicative of dave siding with shelly. I think what you linked is a pretty big misrep of shelly duppin.

[PlusJOYED]

She approached you yesterday and engaged with you, but did not attempt to solve dave. Do you think that is a town mindset? Especially when she tried to push me + dave initially and obviously wanted to lim me first.
Compare that to me, hectic and UNO who were all trying to reach out to dave several times to get him to take a stance. It makes no sense for her as town to not be concerned at all regarding the stance of a slot who has been so inactive. The most logical explanation is simply that they are partners.

why focus dave when she got a track on you

[PlusJOYED]

i looked through your early iso. Seems like you've been more pushing for mislims than solving. I also think your early hectic vote/post feels like scum theater.

[PlusJOYED]

<--- thinking, not fence sitting. That guy's definitely not sitting on a fence.

dave how much longer will you finish thinking then...

are you producing the second coming of noraa's wall

this is actually a little sus to me considering dave did wallpost after this and referenced Noraa here.

[PlusJOYED]

I never said it was a towntell
stop freaking misrepping, it's getting on my nerves
i didn't like your push on taylor either
I looked through shelly and dave iso and their equity is really high. Shelly really didn't talk to dave much at all. Shelly is scummier than I thought.
another thing is that hectic thought I was the "key" to getting the town win
like in the duppin/hectic scum world, they only need to convince 1 person to win (besides shelly). If they were scum I think they'd put more effort on getting dave to vote shelly as well.

[PlusJOYED]

I also think if shelly was town here, they played pretty newbie (no offense), which I can believe. But I think a newbie day 3 tracker would've dropped some accidental hints on being a pr (even of its weak) but they really didn't. Hectic revealing the bugspray softconf seems pretty town indicative. And looking back, BM crumbed pretty hard on being a weak role "if i die tonight, noraa is scum" day 1. In a world with Hectic scum and they have a doctor whose purpose is to decieve probably the weak TFN and gunsmith, I think duppin/hectic would have a very high chance of realizing that they should have noraa doc BM. But that didn't happen.

Shelly also seemed to want to kill noraa desperately day 2.

I think it's probably dave/shellyc

[PlusJOYED]

I don't know how long it'll take for dave to reappear. But I think there's just too much evidence indicating a shelly/dave team.
If this loses town the game, I'm sorry.
If the solve is actually hectic/duppin, then gg, you guys played well.

VOTE: shellyc

[PlusJOYED]

it's fine duppin
there is some evidence and meta that suggests shelly is town, but I think it's outweighed by the evidence this game that she's scum (mainly meta). But honestly, a lot of duppins style rubbed me the wrong way; like I still sort of feel like he was trying to push an agenda rather than solve in a good amount of his posts, but I think theres a good chance shelly was trying to take advantage of that. Hectics progrssion yesterday seemed pretty town too. But I can't deny duppin's logic. I didn't expect shelly and dave's iso to pan out that poorly. My heart/gut is split, but logically the team is dave/shelly

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your 3 posts today seem like a sheep of my initial thoughts + AtE
sorry

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please dont be scum hectic

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actually scum hectic would hammer right there unless he's trolling

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cmon hectic the suspense is killing me. i wanna know if we lose today

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hectic please i hate this

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gg
VOTE: dave

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hectic is basically confirmed since he could have won as scum yesterday.
pretty sure I could have won too after dave and shelly voted duppin.

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woo i finally beat scumshelly

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Can you stop

stop rolling scum then