Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Titus]

1. What is your mafia experience?
2. What is your play style strength(s)? Weakness(es)? Do you know?
3. In your opinion, what is the most important thing to look for while scumhunting? While townreading?

1. A whole lot. As of the last time I checked, I have the second post posts on site.

2. I am better with data than people, despite being an attorney. I pioneered a tactic called Vote Count Analysis (VCA). I'll be eyeballing that shortly.

3. The most important things I look for (when not doing VCA) are honesty and vulnerability. When someone has a cohesive theory of the game they want checked, I am likely to townread them.

[Titus]

Votecount 1.10

callforjudgement(4)

~ RCEnigma(52), Looker(49), ItalianoVD(48), Tayl0r Swift(19)

WaltertheDunce10(2)

~ Raya36(43), Not_Mafia(23)

shellyc(2)

~ Nosferatu(61), Frogsterking(26)

Tayl0r Swift(1)

~ callforjudgement(50)

Not_Mafia(1)

~ geraintm(50)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(56)

geraintm(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(70)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ WaltertheDunce10(62)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

As of here, I get Italiano, Nosferatu, and Fosterking as likely town.

[Titus]

Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)

~ Tayl0r Swift(42), Frogsterking(46), ItalianoVD(68), WaltertheDunce10(73), geraintm(70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)

~ Raya36(57), Not_Mafia(25), callforjudgement(68), Nosferatu(83)

ItalianoVD(2)

~ RCEnigma(66), shellyc(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(80), Looker(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

• prodding Not_Mafia
  
• looking for a replacement for shellyc

RCEnigma likely town.

We're likely looking at one scum on the Shelly wagon here. One to two scum on Walter.

This changes if Walter is a scum too. Bussing Shelly to Save Walter is a possibility.

In that case, I would expect at most 1 scum on Walter and 1-2 scum on Shelley.

[Titus]

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

Based on my prior analysis, the most likely scum on the Shelley wagon is Walter. Everyone else I get various degrees of a townread on.

VOTE: Walter

[Titus]

Well geratim might be scum too.

[Titus]

Votecount 2.11

RCEnigma(4)

~ Raya36(63), geraintm(39), callforjudgement(88), RCEnigma(51)

Raya36(4)

~ Tayl0r Swift(52), Nosferatu(28), WaltertheDunce10(34), Looker(23)

Looker(1)

~ Gamma Emerald(45)

Frogsterking(1)

~ ItalianoVD(71)

callforjudgement(1)

~ Frogsterking(72)


Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-22 17:44:55)

Knowing these are two town wagons, scum shouldn't have a preference unless Raya's reads were better than RC's. I'd expect at least 1 scum off the wagons. Since I already TR Italiano and Frogsterking, I would suspect gamma scum.

Right now, Walter, geratim, and Gamma is my throry.

[Titus]

Intent to hammer Gamma

[Titus]

I'll be back tonight to answer questions. If someone could clue me into the claims, that would be great.

[Titus]

@Nos - Radiant Cowbells. If we count alts and hydrae, I beat him probably.

@Walter - No. I am curious about it for the rule of three. Are you the only two? Were any of the dead in your hood?

[Titus]

Italiano, what do you think of my Walter, geratim, gamma theory?

[Titus]

Who exactly is your scumteam then?

Can you elaborate more on the track? I haven't read.

[Titus]

Ok. I just lost all of my notes when MS just logged out. So I'll give the short version of why I doubt Frogster and Call as scum.

First, early game wagon overload.
Second, Frogster has been an early vote presence on Shelley/Banana.
Third, this VC makes no sense in your theory and it's worth breaking down in detail.

Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)

~ Tayl0r Swift(42), Frogsterking(46), ItalianoVD(68), WaltertheDunce10(73), geraintm(70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)

~ Raya36(57), Not_Mafia(25), callforjudgement(68), Nosferatu(83)

ItalianoVD(2)

~ RCEnigma(66), shellyc(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(80), Looker(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

• prodding Not_Mafia
  
• looking for a replacement for shellyc

Let's suppose Gamma is inactive scum or waiting to hammer town!Walter for a moment rather than my S v S theory. (In my theory, Gamma is inactive lurker scum).

If Shelley is scum (known true), and Walter is town, then we should expect some scum effort to save Shelley. Yet, in your setup the counterwagon to know scum is completely town, minus the possibility of call. If you postulate Frogster is bussing, then Call must be scum for this VC to make any sense with your theory. In fact, Walter town nearly locks call as scum. Yet, I don't feel call is scum based on earlier VCs. Especially with how close call and shelley were voting.

I just don't think Frogstar was bussing. The amount of hoops he'd be going through on Day 1 alone is insane. The RVS wagons 1.2-1.4 would be inexplicable to be voting like that.

[Titus]

@Walter/Italiano, Did your hood exist pregame or was it created?

[Titus]

Tirus, you know we've voted off one scum already right?

Yes, that factored into all of my analysis.

[Titus]

Gamma, I just said intent to hammer you.

What is your read on Walter? Geratim? Call? Claim please.

[Titus]

@Walter/Italiano, Did your hood exist pregame or was it created?

To follow up here, I suspect it was pregame. If I am correct, that makes Walter an apparent Godfather to the PT cop. If Walter made the hood, then he had his own triggering ability to create a PT Godfather.

A PR is worth more than a lurking PT. The choice for scum was easy. Save Walter.

[Titus]

Gamma, you know more than anyone here that I don't read on subbing in.

Why are you scum leaning Walter? Why are you null on geriant? Why is call scum?

[Titus]

Ok.

VOTE: Gamma

Bye scum. Walter dies tomorrow.

[Titus]

Was your intent to get me to hammer you?

[Titus]

Regardless of Gamma's flip, we can have it out tomorrow Walter. If I am not dead, you can count on it.

[Titus]

If Gamma does flip as the tracker then my confusion about this would have been eliminated. I hope he just makes it easy and flips scum.

There will be words when the game ends.

I hope Gamma flips scum here. I just wasn't taking nonsense about change your ways from a scumslot. If Gamma flips town, he ought to know that I change my ways for no one.

[Titus]

@CFJ, My solve is Walter or geratim. I believe I understand what you are throwing down, which makes geratim the only logical scum by my VCA.

VOTE: geratim

[Titus]

Alright, what were these changes not caught by the mod's ISO and why do they make geratim town?

[Titus]

I did have a 9:4 possibility with you in play so...

[Titus]

To be abundantly clear, I am interested in lynching 1) geratim, 2) cfd, and 3) walter based on the opening today.

[Titus]

So you're telling me that Geratim voted shelley to not get caught if her wagon went through, unvoted when the deadline got extended and I should TR that?

[Titus]

Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)

~ Tayl0r Swift(42), Frogsterking(46), ItalianoVD(68), WaltertheDunce10(73), geraintm(70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)

~ Raya36(57), Not_Mafia(25), callforjudgement(68), Nosferatu(83)

ItalianoVD(2)

~ RCEnigma(66), shellyc(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(80), Looker(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

• prodding Not_Mafia
  
• looking for a replacement for shellyc

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

Let's play a game called where are the scum.

1.13
Shelley wagon - Town, Town based on early vote and my other VCA comments, Flipped Town, Town if CFD is town, ?
Walter wagon - Flipped town, Flipped town, CFD, Town based on 1.10.

Geratim unvotes because "shelley being replaced".

1.Final
Shelley - Town, Town based of VCA, Flipped town, town if CFD is, Town based off VCA, Town based on CFD, ?
Walter - Town, Town, Town


If Walter is indeed town, scum didn't want to be caught shifting the wagons when both wagons are all town.

Geratim is caught scum.

[Titus]

Either Geratim is scum, or you have to be or both.

[Titus]

Can you respond to 1844 cfd?

[Titus]

Mod: Is a parity cop normal?

@Looker, I can only be scum if CFD is. If you think I am scum, your vote should be on cfd.

[Titus]

If a parity cop is not normal, how can you know Walter and I have the same alignment CFD?

[Titus]

I think I want to hear your claim and then decide whether or not massclaim is a good idea based on that.

[Titus]

Alright, we can go forward with the massclaim.

I'll go next. I am a VT.

[Titus]

We should just have everyone claim in their next post. Then make a wall of claims.

[Titus]

Why can't CFJ just be a mafia role blocker?

Mafia Alien is a possibility. I got no message from Walter. I'll check with the moderator.

However if CFD is a mafia roleblocker, he must clear someone each night, assuming 10 v 3. We lynch him at ELO minus 1, thus confirming his clears or winning.

[Titus]

Mod confirmed no message from Walter received.

[Titus]

Votecount 1.5

Nosferatu(4)

~ Frogsterking(11), WaltertheDunce10(43), ItalianoVD(30), callforjudgement(34)

callforjudgement(2)

~ RCEnigma(38), Nosferatu(38)

WaltertheDunce10(2)

~ Not_Mafia(10), Raya36(19)

Not_Mafia(1)

~ geraintm(19)

geraintm(1)

~ SJReaver(47)

Frogsterking(1)

~ BananaCucho(39)


Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald(31), sordros(6)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

NONE

FLAVOR

Scum know that Nos is town and avoid jumping on the BW, or scum is Nos or already on Nos wagon? Which is more likely?

The votes make it hard to believe cfd is town, but objectively the best play is to keep him alive until exlo plus one day.

[Titus]

My FoS is Titus.

I am literally conftown.

[Titus]

My FoS is Titus.

I am literally conftown.

Not literally

Yes. Unless you feel there were 4 scum, cfd cleared me by blocking me.

[Titus]

so what does scum have as compensation for the town prs

just a tracker?

I think cfd is actually just scum. The Friendly Neighbors are designed to be innocent children, especially when neighbored with each other. There was likely meant to be some paranoia about the friendly neighbors due to them both having the same role and the PT cop. CFD's role would exist to make one of the Friendly Neighbor claims look fake.

Otherwise, I can't see what purpose an Alien has in the game. There's no vig. A jailkeeper would function almost similarly here.

[Titus]

It's either him or geratim. The VCs don't make sense otherwise.

[Titus]

The point is rather moot anyway as town should not execute you until Elo plus one day.

We should just lynch geratim.

[Titus]

Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)

~ Tayl0r Swift(42), Frogsterking(46), ItalianoVD(68), WaltertheDunce10(73), geraintm(70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)

~ Raya36(57), Not_Mafia(25), callforjudgement(68), Nosferatu(83)

ItalianoVD(2)

~ RCEnigma(66), shellyc(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(80), Looker(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

• prodding Not_Mafia
  
• looking for a replacement for shellyc

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

@Frogster, Does Geratim fit within your Ocean theory? Did Walter claim D1?

I struggle to see how the Walter and Shelley wagons are pure. If I am understanding you correctly, the scumteam is low engagement. That should mean most of my VCA clears are correct (Nos, you). I know I am town.

That leaves CFD and geratim as suspects.

I struggle to buy Looker as scum because that would make 2 scum voting elsewhere while shelley was wagoned.

[Titus]

@CFD, I see geratim as someone who voted shelley when they were the inevitable lynch, unvoted when he hoped for a claim and revoted when her lynch was inevitable. That exchange could be town motivated but I lean scum, especially given the context.

[Titus]

Also does your analysis factor in your lynch at Elo plus one day?

[Titus]

Yeah Looker, you're my compromise target. So how's about leaving the obvtown alone?

[Titus]

Frogster are you drunk?

[Titus]

Post 939 and Italino's 944 have the problem that they are only looking at one VC. Italiano has already partially been proven right by his conclusion that "scum were off the wagon" (Gamma flip) but his context suggests he thought scum were completely off the wagon, which brings us back to you and Looker.

Back to 939 by Taylor. Taylor postulates that Frogster got trapped as a wagon took off. Nos may have been a reluctant bus. She doesn't say why Nos may have been a reluctant bus but geratim wasn't a reluctant bus.

Her VCA could actually answer these questions by looking at the prior VCs. Frogsterking simply is not the type to move his vote frequently despite being moderately active. Nosferatu is not a reluctant busser when he started the wagon back in 1.10.

[Titus]

Nosferatu didn't really start that wagon (at least, he wanted to start a wagon but did so in a way that gave him no choice as to who he voted for). You should probably read #573 and #574 for context.

Why would scum Nosferatu want to start a new wagon when he could remain comfortably on you?

Also, isn't your whole point today that Nos town wins us the game?

Why isn't geratim scum?

[Titus]

Even if he was planning to bus, why wouldn't he move earlier, rather than voting Walter, and only moving to shelly after I pointed out that she wasn't posting elsewhere?

Solution: It wasn't a planned bus but a forced one. He deadline voted shelley. When the deadline was removed, he unvoted. When you told him shelley avoiding, he revoted.

[Titus]

Your callout forced his vote. That's my point. You forced his hand. When deadline extension granted, he got off. He did all he could yo save shelley

[Titus]

Look at d3, geratim takes the same lazy bus too.

What has he done today to solve?

[Titus]

…and a thought.

Titus, is your townread on Frogster entirely based on #1786? Or are there other components to it?

#578 seems really plausible as a bus, given the circumstance in which the vote was made. That wagon was highly likely to collapse, so scum wouldn't see any real risk in it.

No. Because if you look at 1.13 Frogster got off and then got on again, early on the wagon.

[Titus]

Plus there's Frogster's play today too.

[Titus]

@CFJ, Frogsterking is literally the towniest of the unconfirmeds.

[Titus]

So he tried and was wrong. That's an indication of being town as scum didn't fight because they knew. Hell Gamma likely tanked his lynch by provoking me.

[Titus]

@CFD, why don't you join the two conftown on geratim and block Frogster if it fails?

[Titus]

CFD, your rationale for not voting geratim looks awfully survivalistic.

[Titus]

I think the game is not quite solved yet right? I am interested in reading the Looker case.

if you are going to do it, then do it quickly as today is drawing to a close.
the inability of any wagon to get over the hump today is perplexing....

It's because town can't agree on an SR on you.

[Titus]

My biggest issue in this situation is that my sense is telling me geraintm will flip town. This is leading me to suspect Looker due to PoE.

If it's not geratim it's CFD

[Titus]

Go on.

[Titus]

GG. I feel really good about my subin here. All hail VCA.

Gamma, why did you try to provoke me.

[Titus]

@Titus: Did you figure out, based on how townish the entire playerlist was looking towards the end, that scum had probably been bussing? In retrospect, that might have been the step in your VCA reasoning that I was missing.

It came down to where was the scum on the shelley wagon or the Walter wagon. Everyone but geratim was clear on the shelley wagon. Everyone but you was clear on Walter. So either scum had a forced bus or you were scum favoring Walter over shelley. The forced bus theory turned out to be correct.