Mini 657 - Chain Reaction Mafia (Winner Announced)

[Crazy]

/confirm

I don't think I get this; I mean, if one person is lynched, then wouldn't everyone die?

[Crazy]

Then couldn't we just lynch Lover B and have a 10/11 chance of winning?

[Crazy]

Yeah, I thought it was a loop, but I didn't see how that would work. I think I might get it now...

Once someone is lynched, the chain of lovers keeps dying until (a) both scum are dead or (b) the scum have a majority. Right? Or am I still not understanding this?

[Crazy]

Love: Slayer645

[Crazy]

I was under the impression that we need exactly one chain.

Now I looked at the math, and it seems that this game really favors town, unless if I'm missing something.

The game ends when we lynch, and a whole chain reaction kablooey thing happens. And then, whichever side is completely wiped out first loses.

Now, say the chain was this. All chains will work with the same exact math.

Town
Town
Scum
Town (town loses if this person is lynched)
Town
Town
Town
Scum
Town (town loses if this person is lynched)
Town
Town

There are only two people, if they were lynched, that would cause a scum win. If any but those two are lynched, then we win.

Now, once we get a chain, we roll a die to get a random person, and then lynch that person. With that,

we have a 9/11 chance of winning

.

I think this works. If it doesn't, someone correct me.

[Crazy]

Max just posted on the Replacement Thread.

[Crazy]

Max said that the game ends once either all town or all scum are dead. I assume if it gets to 1 scum and 1 town, then the next person on the chain will die. If the last standing person is town, then we win. If it's scum, then they win.

And I don't support your idea of finding the most pro-town person, forbiddan, because that gives the scum ability to manipulate us. And I believe since we have an 82% chance of winning just by rolling a die, I think we should do that.

I'm tempted to roll the die now, but I don't want people seeing that I'm fighting to lynch whomever the die lands on.

[Crazy]

If you did roll a dice I would be truly disappointed.

Yeah, I realize that, but I doubt that an 82% chance of winning could really be improved by discussion.

[Crazy]

That's genius, TDC.

1. Malthusis
2. Mustafa
3. Tovarish
4. Dynamo
5. Crazy
6. Slayer
7. ZS
8. Forbiddan
9. Jex
10. ClockworkRuse
11. TDC

Original Roll String: 1d11

1 11-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

[Crazy]

Vote: Tovarish

Everyone vote Tovarish except Tovarish.

[Crazy]

I was under the same impression as TDC.

Although Tovarish should vote someone else so his vote is not on himself when we test him.

[Crazy]

Oh, crap.

[Crazy]

Still, just from suggesting that plan, I'd like to assume that TDC is town. If we don't want to go for a random lynch, I'll go for that.

Unvote, Vote Malthusis

(the person after TDC on the chain)

[Crazy]

Still, just from suggesting that plan, I'd like to assume that TDC is town. If we don't want to go for a random lynch, I'll go for that.

We barely have a page of discussion. Why are you trying to push the lynch so quickly?

A better question, why do you want to stall this game so much, and reject every suggestion?

Seriously, discussion will not help as much as you're thinking. Discussion here will just give more time for the scum to manipulate us.

And besides, TDC is my top pick for town so far. You have any ideas?

[Crazy]

Did it ever occur to you everyone should check in first for lynch phase? Oh, and also it's a lot easier for scum to manipulate when we are trying to speedlynch someone rather than slowing down a bit and thinking.

More discussion will mean more time for the scum to look pro-town, or make their buddy look pro-town. It will be

very

hard to improve on an 82% chance of winning.

And if you disagree that TDC suggesting that plan makes him seem very pro-town, please tell me why. A plan doesn't have to work for it to be pro-town.

[Crazy]

Voting is what starts discussion, people. Saying "we need discussion" is a stupid attempt to look pro-town.

I'm not saying we should speed-lynch, but we should keep this game moving as fast as possible. If you want discussion, DISCUSS SOMETHING!!!!!

[Crazy]

The opportunity that you're missing here is that this is a game where you can freely act as scummy as you want without fear of being lynched, since the goal of this game is to find

town

, not

scum

.

Now, of course, I know we can lynch Slayer right now and win the game, but there's no convincing you guys of that fact.

I have never been perceived as the most pro-town person in a game,

ever

, so especially here, I'm not gonna give a crap as to how you think of me, because I know from the start that Slayer is likely not going to be lynched.

Now, look here, I would love a speedlynch, but I know you guys won't want that, because either...

a. You want to play a game of mafia.
b. You

are

mafia.

The problem with discussion here is that it will give scum time to manipulate us, and try to make each other look pro-town. If we lynched Tovarish right now (the dice target), then we have an 82% chance of winning. That would mean that this game is broken, right? Texas Justice was just taken off the Open Queue, and that only had a 73% chance of town winning. This is MORE than that. If we could just quicklynch Tovarish, we'd probably win in a second.

Or we discuss this game for a while, end up lynching Jex (because Forbiddan just LOVES discussion and can't POSSIBLY be scum), and losing the game.

ZS, you will not get an 99% chance of winning by adding discussion, since discussion usually helps the town, but when the town has such a high win percent rate anyway, it probably won't end up helping that much, and I'm sure that it has potential to hurt us.

I want to discuss TDC, since it's really hard for me to imagine him being scum while coming up with a gamebreaking plan.

[Crazy]

Forbiddan, ask yourself this. What part of willing to lynch someone based on a die roll makes me scummy? It gives an 82% chance of win for the town, and I was supporting it before I even knew that the target was Tovarish.

And you still haven't proven that you can rig dice. I stand by my argument that you

can't

unless if you show me that you can do it.

And how the fuck does acting scummy help us win ANYWAY?

If you're not worried about staying alive, you can get more interesting reactions from people. Stop playing like you would in a normal game, and don't be afraid to get your hands a little dirty.

Can you tell me why you know this for a fact? Perhaps it's because you know the mafia's positions, right?

Slayer's after me on the chain. I know I'm town. Thus, I know lynching him would cause a town victory.

[Crazy]

Oh, actually, you're right about the dice thing, forbiddan. But I don't think it works in mafia games, since we can't edit our posts:

Note this this is not fool proof. People can edit their posts and get a new dice roll. It will usually say FIXED, but this is not foolproof either. If you are in a forum where people can edit their posts, you should pay close attention and/or only play with people you can trust.

Oh, and you could at least do the mod a favor and not break his game with chance.

I am sorry about this, and I do apologize to Max, but we're supposed to play the game to win, not try to play the game the way the mod intended.

Essentially this game is Loser Mafia, but we just have to lynch right one time. The idea behind this game is great because it rewards active participation from both factions, and it flips it so that we're looking for towntells instead of scumtells. However, I believe this particular set-up to be broken.

I love towntells, and I use them far more than most people, since most people just say OMG WIFOM whenever they hear someone talk about towntells. I believe TDC did a town-tell when he proposed his plan, since there is no reason that scum would propose to lynch a random person.

[Crazy]

I feel like scum would be more willing to sit in the background and wait for hasty decisions to occur in this game. Let other people stand out and take the spotlight and don't draw attention. Of course, I could be completely backwards, I just know that's what I would do.

Actually, that's not true, since the only way the scum could win outside of random luck is by proving their towniness. They can't show that if they're in the backseat all the time.

[Crazy]

They would if that random person worked in their favor. Did you roll before or after he told you the plan? And also, didn't he just say person A, i.e top of the list? Just trying to see if I remember correctly.

I rolled after he said that plan.

As far as I can tell from that post, I'm almost positive that "A" is just a random variable and doesn't refer to a specific person.

But a win is much more satisfying when it's earned, not because someone broke the game with dice. I only like using dice when the odds are against me personally. It's a different sense of accomplishment when you make fate bow to you. This however is just a roll and we usually win. no fun at all. The chaos isn't there. So I'd rather win by finding the towniest.

Fair enough, I guess. Then that's why I'll advocate Malthusis' lynch.

Note that I have completed 5 games as town. I've lost 4 of them. The only one I one was Texas Justice, in which the setup was broken.

[Crazy]

Wait... Just check the lover chains... Uhh... YOU love slayer. So lynching slayer would you mean you would die, and I would be the last one standing.

Crap, I'm an idiot. I forgot that the chains will work backwards.

Unvote
Vote ClockworkRuse

Uhh, seriously? Saying "Hey, I am town, follow my orders!"?

I'm not leading the town. That's not my style.

And why are you so certain Forbiddan and I are scum?

ZS, I've never said a word against you. Why did you feel the need to make that connection?

[Crazy]

Also, guys, you may wish to read this:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8756

Nobody seemed to mind the fact that Fonz broke the game, except Sun Tzu. I mean, seriously, who would complain about a win?

[Crazy]

Actually, ZS, you're looking a lot more town to me than forbiddan.

[Crazy]

Actually, ZS, you're looking a lot more town to me than forbiddan.

And why precisely do I look scummy? Because you are trying to break the game with dice and I want to play mafia? Geez...

I think you're trying too hard to look pro-town. Kinda subjective, but still.

[Crazy]

I realize that it borders on that, but it's not about

looking

townie, it's about

trying

to look townie.

ZS is obviously not trying to look townie, while you are.

[Crazy]

Well, it doesn't really make a difference to me. I mean, I think you could be scum, but since we're not trying to lynch scum here, that's all kind of pointless. The goal of this game is to find town, not to find scum. So our town-hunting skills are much more valuable than our scum-hunting skills here.

So far, I think TDC is most likely to be town.

[Crazy]

What's so dangerous about saying that you think someone is pro-town? I do it all the time.

[Crazy]

What's so dangerous about saying that you think someone is pro-town? I do it all the time.

You said it when there was barely any reasoning to go off of and in this game, the object for the scum is to look as pro-town as possible, no?

Correct, but I believe that I had a decent amount of information to go on.

[Crazy]

The plan, if it had worked, would do wonders for the town. And since I had misinterpreted Max's comment the same way as TDC said he did, I'm inclined to believe him.

[Crazy]

Can we have some voting at least? Random voting if anything? It works in normal games, why not here?

[Crazy]

This is like Loser Mafia. Jesus Christ.

In Loser Mafia, the whole game isn't riding on one lynch.

[Crazy]

I already did a truly random dice roll. It was Tovarish. The dice can't be rigged unless if you edit your post, which none of us can.

[Crazy]

Sure, why not?

Vote: Tovarish

[Crazy]

No, no, NO PEOPLE!

Stop voting Tovarish!

WE NEED TO THINK THIS OUT, RATHER THAN JUST TAKING A CHANCE!

Okay, lol, that means you're one of the scum.

Now who's the other one?

[Crazy]

ZombieSlayer's opposition to this lynch makes me very comfortable with it. He is one of the scum, and the other one is either Malthusis or Tovarish.

Sorry forbiddan, it looks like you were town after all.

[Crazy]

Whoops, not malthusis, I mean Mustafa.

[Crazy]

Sorry forbiddan, it looks like you were town after all.

I'm still pissed you know. We are completely profaning the point of playing a game and instead playing craps. It's just I know no one is going to listen to me so I might as well get this over with and hopefully add a town win to my siggy.

Well, I can understand that, but if the setup's broken, then the setup's broken. I'm not going to ignore a loophole just so this game goes the way Max intended it.

I'm sure Max can find some way to make this setup fair for scum, though.

[Crazy]

ACtually, Crazy thinks Tov or must are scum because they aren't posting and forcing us to wait til someone comes back to their senses before the hammer drops. At least that's my take.

This.

Unless if the other scum has just given up by now.

Or unless if I'm a complete idiot.

[Crazy]

Actually, forbiddan, you got it backwards. Killing you would leave Jex alive. Killing ClockworkRuse would leave TDC alive.

Afatchic, why do you believe Jex to be pro-town?

[Crazy]

You'd vote for Forbiddan.

Although I want to hear your reasoning about Jex. Is he your scum-partner?

[Crazy]

Wait, what? You think TDC is scum, but you're voting ClockworkRuse, which in turn would keep TDC alive?

[Crazy]

I believe at least one of ZombieSlayer/afatchic is scum, which makes me more comfortable with leaving Dynamo alive.

We need prods/replacements for the other inactive people (Dynamo and Mustafa) or we'll never get a 9-person agreement.

I would also at this point leave forbiddan alive. I've changed my mind about her.

[Crazy]

I would also at this point leave forbiddan alive. I've changed my mind about her.

Interesting how that coincides with my reluctant agreement with your methods. I don't like that, but I also don't see how it benefits scum :S.

The only way, you being scum, that you would want Tovarish lynched, is if Dynamo was your scum-partner.

If Dynamo was your scum-partner, then earlier when I rolled the die you wouldn't have fought vehemently to go for discussion.

Then later you hop on the Tovarish wagon, preparing to get him lynched.

Thus, if you are scum it is not feasible that Dynamo is not your scum-partner. It is also not feasible that Dynamo is your scum-partner.

So the only conclusion I can come to is that you are indeed town.

[Crazy]

Vote ZombieSlayer

(forbiddan)

If we want a lynch based on discussion, let's go.

Actually, reading back, it actually points to afatchic being town. Look at this:

I. Afatchic believes that Jex and TDC are pro-town.
II. Afatchic does not want himself lynched.
III. Jex and TDC were two of the "driving" forces on the Tovarish wagon.

See, it doesn't make sense that Afatchic would be scum with a non-Jex, non-TDC person, yet it doesn't make sense that he'd be scum with them either. So he's probably town, then.

Obviously, my reasoning here will only apply until it becomes WIFOM, which is probably now. Earlier in the game it isn't. Now that I've revealed it, anyone doing stuff like this from now on is probably WIFOMing.

[Crazy]

Mod: Can you prod/replace Mustafa and Dynamo?

Without them, we'll never get 9 people on a lynch. Certainly at least one of them is town.

And can we all lynch ZS now? Forbiddan is like so obv town.

[Crazy]

yeah and i kept hoping votes because i was confused about how it would workout and who it would leave. if i was scum would i have really picked a couple people i was willing to leave and then follow whoever picked one. the scum would have to be trying to get only one person other than themselves left. i don't like to use wifom to clear my name but that should make sense.

That does make sense, especially since you did that before I brought up the point that it was a pro-town thing to do. So I do believe you are pro-town atm.

I'd guess ZS is one of the scum. The other one I'm not sure about, but I'd bet that forbiddan is town.

[Crazy]

*gasp* There's the lynch.

Which means we should probably win right about now.

Which means I got another free mini slot!

[Crazy]

You sure you're town? Because saying that you were when you were really scum would be really mean.

I wonder who the scum were.

[Crazy]

if we just won then most likely mustafa and clockworkruse were scum since scum shouldn't have voted for a town win and they were the two not voting.

Clockwork voted for Dynamo, and I'm pretty sure Dynamo was town. I think it's ZS and Mustafa, and ZS didn't get on in time to unvote himself.

[Crazy]

so was it a town win? or is one of the two left mafia or somehing? im a little confused right now.

[Crazy]

EBWOP:

so was it a town win? or is one of the two left mafia or somehing? im a little confused right now.

It was a town win, since Forbiddan was town. We ended with 2 townies, actually, since Jex was also town.

[Crazy]

Which means I got another free mini slot!

what do you mean by that?

jex was town as well? him and forbiddan were my two choices as pro-town people to leave.

Nobody can be in more than 4 mini games at a time. I was in 3. Now I'm only in 2 because this finished, so I have more free space.

Why was Jex left alive? I'm confused :S? I mean, it's cool though we won! And it was actually because I seemed pro town. This one makes me happy.

Let's see, the chain was:

malthusis<3Mustafa<3Tovarish<3Dynamo<3Crazy<3Slayer<3ZombieSlayer<3forbiddan<3Jex<3Clockwork Ruse <3 TDC<3malthusis

-ZS was lynched (town)
-Slayer suicided (town)
-I suicided (town)
-Dynamo suicided (town)
-Tovarish suicided (town)
-Mustafa suicided (scum)
-Malthusis suicided (town)
-TDC suicided (town)
-ClockworkRuse suicided (scum)

Both scum were dead at that point, which meant the game ended, leaving you and Jex alive.

[Crazy]

Max, what's the setup for Chain Reaction 2?