Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[innocentvillager]

im not sure about the hiraki or marksman anymore

but raya or a50 feels like it should be a thing, im trying to remember why

[innocentvillager]

yeah but this was on D1 when they were probably still just figuring things out. i imagine the fear of town dunking all 5 ppl off the wagon expecting to find a higher concentration of scum there is naturally scary and some they would've at least discussed for someone to hop on the wagon. He was kind of at D-1 for a bit too, it's not like town quickdunked him

if it makes you feel better i don't think that there is any real difference in dunking you or isis first. we can get isis first if you'd prefer

[innocentvillager]

Hiraki, Lavender, and 1 of Raya/Almo is what makes sense to me right now

i don't hate this team if you think they could've all stayed off with some small chance.

[innocentvillager]

why is Isis town? i don;'t see any individual post that makes me think it can't come from scum

[innocentvillager]

seems fakeable when scum!Isis is already in the mindset of doing so herself for towncred.

there were many reasons to townread Nono I'm not impressed with her evolution on that slot.

[innocentvillager]

and there's the discredit right on cue

[innocentvillager]

nvm if you ask i don't think you're trying to discredit me.

[innocentvillager]

i think we should all reread all of D1 especially the interactions around clone and clone's posting with the knowledge of people we know are town now and give our thoughts tomorrow. i feel like that might be the biggest source of information because we KNOW so many alignments from back then.

[innocentvillager]

Isis-I like the way their playing this, it feels the point of view of a town person playing this. Honestly, their posts give me more motivation to actually do something XD. (Btw you accidentally voted me twice in the past o.O)

i really don't think this is scum!Lav talking about a partner

[innocentvillager]

i think we should all reread all of D1 especially the interactions around clone and clone's posting with the knowledge of people we know are town now and give our thoughts tomorrow. i feel like that might be the biggest source of information because we KNOW so many alignments from back then.

I did recently.

Mark and WLC had the biggest kerfuffle that lasted from the "explain the reads on the people who haven't posted" to WLC's ultimate dunk.

Nono, turns out, was actually right all along with their master plan.

He also had small conversations with me and A50.

CE and Hellbooks bothered him briefly, but he didn't really pay them much attention.

All other posts were NAI for me. He really avoided any true confrontation.

can you clarify what your stances on each of these players are from this?

[innocentvillager]

Who are you scumreading again?

No one - I'm fearful to scumread anyone. That being said, I'll draw the first move. I don't really know if this flips scum because I don't know if anything flips scum at this rate but I know at least that if this is scum, it would be very annoying to see this slot win.

Vote: Lavender

i kind of buy this as town!Hiraki tbh

[innocentvillager]

i think really casey and i should just decide the remaining dunk order and everyone just complies

there's way too much scum influence otherwise ESPECIALLY with the clock THIS LOW

if you don't want me helping decide that's fine, I don't have a great sense for the solve myself

worst case scenario we go in kind of a random order and we should win at least sometimes, which is much better than frantically just going for what everyone wants collectively

[innocentvillager]

again if casey is scum we have already COMPLETELY LOST, we don't have time to indulge conspiracy theories about casey, we need to push whatever small chance we have of winning

[innocentvillager]

Imagine being this close to sweeping the game as maf and NOT hammering a freebie like Nono.

Either all 3 maf are on the Nono wagon, or Nono is maf.

All the maf have to do at this point is not vote and idle out and they win. Keep that in mind.

Only a

townie

can make these two consecutive posts, considering they contradict each other in essence.

this is a good/somewhat nuanced observation and shows some attempt at solving but fakeable I fear and really not that useful at this point.

[innocentvillager]

i have been on every dunk because WE HAVE BEEN MOVING WAY TOO SLOWLY THIS GAME AS TOWN. We have to make like 5 more dunks to win and we literally do not have enough time to talk this out as a town anymore and get votes properly, so I really propose that we just give the game to Casey and me (or just Casey) and everyone complies.

literally every dunk we did I have been successively less happy about.

I'll take responsibility for Hayasaka and hellbooks, I genuinely wanted to flip those two.

I did not approve of Chem Elem or Nono, especially not Nono. But the game was stalling out

i regret in hindsight but also in general about not pushing for Hiraki instead like Isis suggested because it would've been better to flip that slot early. Maybe I let Nono's adamant scumread on me get to me a little, idk.

[innocentvillager]

just to clarify:

letting Casey decide will be AT LEAST as good as random.
letting town collectively decide with this much time left is PROBABLY SIGNIFICANTLY WORSE THAN RANDOM.

for reference (using the same simulation i talked about earlier):

random is 70% assuming me and Casey are town
random is 40% assuming Casey is town

[innocentvillager]

so at this point i am against anyone deciding any more elims except casey. sorry.

[innocentvillager]

No way in Ruby Red am I for this "handing all power of the dunks to Casey and Inno" though. Inno, what makes you even think people trust you enough to warrant that?

i think you are delusional if you are town here and you think we can just talk out 5 dunks in less than 2 days and hope that 3 scum doesn't influence the town to win way less often than normal.

[innocentvillager]

That's if Casey is town. I townread her, but letting her decide the dunks is strictly worse than going for who I think is scum, unless I think I am absolutely garbage at mafia.

but this is the whole problem in mafia. adverse selection. it's especially true when reads are all over the place. Assuming you are town, when you are right your wagons are much less likely to go through than if they are wrong, in which case they will almost certainly go through. This is the "worse than random" aspect.

I have given the alternative already, and I like the baseline random win rates from my model. They are much better than just letting scum influence what's going on, as I've said.

[innocentvillager]

you're not convinced by my solve, i doubt im going to be convinced by yours (again we can try, but again we have less than 2 days), and when you are right there's a

big chance scum doesn't let that happen

.

unless people are super super super confident and are willing to give a super compelling case for people that makes them way way way more or less likely than random to be town/scum i don't want to even try speeding the game up and doing things normally.

[innocentvillager]

i don't think it's significantly less or more likely that Hiraki is scum or town here. I can easily see town!Hiraki just being wrong and scum just letting the pushes happen to set him up for a misdunk later. I can easily see scum!Hiraki accepting his role in actively only pushing the misdunks himself as a sacrifice for the team

[innocentvillager]

i am waiting for casey. if she does not show up by (expired on 2020-08-16 00:09:10) I hammer. I consider anyone who hammers Hiraki before either of these events a scumclaim.

[innocentvillager]

@Casey when you get here, we should go with whoever you believe. If you think Hiraki is the best dunk INDEPENDENTLY (I think the crowd selecting Hiraki makes him slightly more likely to be town than random barring any reads, but I can't deny that he has pushed 4 misdunks and scum has plenty of motivation to do that) of everyone else we should go for it, but if you don't please say so and we should switch.

We really need all TOWNIES to cooperate with this plan. If you are town, PLEASE THINK about it independently because I think scum is more likely to resist this plan than town because they are so close to winning, they don't want to leave it up to chance. For a town in as shit shape as we are CHANCE is our friend.

I know it's hard to give up CONTROL to one (mostly cleared) person who we don't know will make the right decisions. I KNOW it's hard to put down our personal convictions and reads. But really I think it's necessarily if we are going to maximize the chance we win collectively. Mafia is NOT JUST ABOUT YOU BEING RIGHT. It's about actually getting scum eliminated.

[innocentvillager]

honestly i think i want townies to agree to this plan before Casey gives any reads because there's a problem there

@TOWNIES please make it your priority to think about this ASAP and agree to it or give a compelling case why you can think of some good alternative. BUT THE CLOCK IS TICKING

[innocentvillager]

and we can obviously reevaluate the plan if we get down to one scum because there's essentially no scum influence there so if that's your concern... well let's just get there first.

[innocentvillager]

but if someone I townread as much as Nono was alive I wouldn't want to vote just because we nominated a captain

fwiw i really hate this line by Isis even though we shouldn't be talking about this, we should be talking about the plan.

what is the point of saying this? you clearly don't have any townreads nearly as strong as Nono if you're saying this as a hypothetical. the scum!Isis motivation here I see is to hop on the idea for towncred but also plant the idea in other townies' minds like "oh yeah, I wouldn't want Casey to elim my top townread [blank]! screw this plan, I'm going with my reads on this!"

[innocentvillager]

okay we have A50, Isis, Lav, me (probably casey) on board, great

hiraki will probably agree because he's the next dunk almost for sure otherwise

marks i imagine will object
raya idk just whenever you get a chance i think she'll agree though given how clueless she seems.

Well we have a big majority so that's good enough. casey, it's all in your hands. Pls come and decide for us

You don't even have to be right, use an RNG if that's what you want (in fact you probably should if you're not confident at all to avoid scum influence). You just have to be town which we are just hard assuming at this point

again if casey is scum we have already lost there is no way we are ever eliminating that slot right with the deadline so that's not even a big risk.

[innocentvillager]

Watch it be Inno and Casey and like Isis or something insane like that.

that would be like one of the sickest scumgames of all time. i really wish i could just simply do whatever the fuck im doing this game as scum

like i totally did not need to do anything if that was the team, like what's the point with Casey as scum the game is over anyways

[innocentvillager]

letting Casey decide will be AT LEAST as good as random.

I don't know whether to feel good about that or be offended.

it has nothing to do with your ability

VOTE: Hiraki

[innocentvillager]

fwiw i think this flips green a majority of the time

I townread Hiraki at the start of the game for a reason, not just for memery

But I think this is a very reasonable dunk and it's coming from Casey so I will obviously sheep it

[innocentvillager]

casey please start thinking about your next dunk if this flips either green or red, we might need the time towards the end

[innocentvillager]

again, imagine Hiraki flips green and we don't have a town leader leading us in 3v4 lylo. we are so screwed in that case because the moment a town votes another town scum can blitz.

this is part of the benefit of this strategy. i mentioned a while ago that if we got two clears and they decided on some random dunking order that town was like almost certain to win (80-90%+ depending on the exact numbers) assuming those two clears were actually town. Obviously we didn't implement it at the time (and should not have), but look where we (kind of) are now.

in this setup if scum can infiltrate the top townreads they win. If town finds two genuine clears, scum are almost screwed. If town can even find one clear, town win rate increases drastically increases because there is an unbiased voice leading and they can come up with an order that is presumably at least as good as random.

so with all this kerfuffling the past 7 days we've found Casey as a universal townread so by all intents and purposes we've found a semi-clear. That's not something to scoff at, that takes lots of effort and discussion and interactions and whatnot.

if town!Casey ends up "losing us the game" I don't blame her one bit. I blame luck. You do what you can, but at the end of the day reads are imperfect. They're a lot more random than we think

[innocentvillager]

i think the scumteam is isis/marksman/a50. id be tickled if im right.

but as we've said I will let Casey do the dunking.

[innocentvillager]

casey would you consider the team i posted above?

it scores decently in your assocations matrix

[innocentvillager]

Hey inno, would you like to help us dunk hiraki?

i refuse to vote my Leader

But...

scum in {Isis, Leader, spicer, Lav} ?

Those not on Nono yet, please consider what Casey just said as well as the short deadline and that we'd need time for mdlo (I guess that's the abbreviation?) and please hammer Nono. I'm almost certain this flips red

we have to fucking marathon this shit if we are going to win, like I don't think anyone realizes how little time we have left, we need like 5 more dunks to win probably

I understand which is why I'd really like you to vote Nono very soon.

The fact that the dunk hasn't gone through yet as Casey points out means Nono is probably scum

I hate waiting for flips so much but at least we can make use of this time that the timer's stopped.

Nono WAS DUNKED ON, HE WAS A

VANILLA TOWNIE

Who would you guys suspect if Nono flips red?

This has got to be the most frustrating game

I need to re-evaluate but there isn't much time left

this progression is so towny ugh

[innocentvillager]

i like raya.

I FUCKING KNEW SPICER WAS TOWN

i got lucky

I'M A GOD

[innocentvillager]

marksman has been so incredibly underwhelming lately and bordering on straight scummy.

Early on I gave that slot a pass. As the situation worsens this slot seems to care less and produce less useful content. Lately they've gone far to try and dispel my idea that one of Isis/Marksman is scum -- that was like the slot's one contribution. This feels consistent with them thinking "oh they're just going to dunk raya/hiraki in some order and we (Marks/Isis) are widely townread so whatever"

[innocentvillager]

there's also a lot of benefit for scum!Isis to mess up our rhythm and discussion assuming town!Hiraki.

if Hiraki flips red I am willing to almost clear Isis for that comment.

[innocentvillager]

if that situation happened i think the game would be over (town win)

[innocentvillager]

sucks to get caught, scum!

honestly I think you played a great scumgame. i only ignored you because everyone seemed to townread you for some reason and I thought maybe I was just not seeing it

ftr I never did move you past a slight townlean

[innocentvillager]

I'm not sure why Casey is townbinning you when you've been really inconsistent throughout the game.

jesus this quote is scummy

i think you're literally just desperate and upset at this point now I've figured out the scumteam and we're moving in the right direction when before it was almost a surefire win

[innocentvillager]

when you were considering "clearing" me a moment ago

i will get on my knees and apologize if hiraki flips red because then i am probably just confbiasing on you and wrong

there's no reason for scum!you to give us doubt when we are already incorrectly talking about Hiraki as if he will flip green

[innocentvillager]

I do think the solve is Marksman/Isis/?

Clearly not a good track record for me but that's my final guess. Lav? I guess for X?

I didn't like Isis' buddying with the votes situation. Felt like fake pocketing to me.

how do you feel about A50?

and how do you feel about my hypothesis that lav/isis are not partners because these interactions don't look SvS:

Based on how Ruby Red's schedule happens to compare to Casey's we might have to vote on her contingencies?

I want to build up beyond a 0 with Lavender not because I am worried about ruling out scumteams or something or whatever but because Lavender is cool

Lavender come level up our relationship

Why'd you unvote Hiraki?

Isis-I like the way their playing this, it feels the point of view of a town person playing this. Honestly, their posts give me more motivation to actually do something XD. (Btw you accidentally voted me twice in the past o.O)

i really don't think this is scum!Lav talking about a partner

[innocentvillager]

A50 in my opinion has also been super underwhelming lately. They made one useless post about how Casey is town and then went away again.

IMO scum often show their true colors as the situation gets worse and worse for town and their win gets more imminent. Their activity frequently drops off, they care less about the game, there's literally no need to put in the effort anymore when it looks like town just self-destructs.

I think Marksman and A50 are fitting this paradigm well. scum!A50 doesn't have to try anymore. The chance Marksman and Isis get dunked in the short amount of time is just so low now when the town is focused on Hiraki and Raya. Same with scum!Marksman, the only thing he really responded to lately was that one post i made where I included THIS VERY TEAM POSSIBILITY with the 100% solve. Obviously it was kind of hypothetical but he had to go against that in particular and not make efforts to reconsider his reads. Then this weird adamant refusal to hand over power to a clear when it's obvious that the idea at least has some merit.

They just need one scum kind of blending in with the town and continue trying to be protown in case. That would be Isis.

[innocentvillager]

If I had to make a team, I'd be throwing darts. Probably Marksman/Isis/Lavender but again, throwing darts.

We have been throwing darts all game long now, and I'm afraid paranoia has already crept on me I can see almost anyone flipping red (Ironically, Casey is now my top TR).

Like, everybody has been ruling out IV (and even I did so based on him being early on Wey), but after 6 dunks I find myself second guessing that read. Why does IV appear on each and every dunked wagon?

As I said, I can probably see almost anyone -aside from Casey- as scum, but we all know we only have 3 scums alive; not SIX.

The funny thing is even when I take a step back and look at why X could be scum compared to why Y could also be scum I dunno if I should laugh or cry, because my reasoning appear contradictory even to me.

Picture this thought going through your mind:

IV could be scum because he's on each and every dunk
Lav could be scum because she hasn't been on a single dunk

Can you see my dilemma? I dunno if scum are helping town misdunk or letting town do all the dirty work.

FoS: Raya OR A50
FoS: Hiraki OR Marksman

You gonna explain these?

I townread Isis though, so I disagree. You're treating 0 scum being on the wagon like it has a 0% chance, when it should be more of a 10 to 40% chance or whatever.

I don't know how Hiraki usually acts after hammered but I'm hopeful he's going to flip scum. There's a lot of benefit in this situation to twilight troll

That doesn't make sense from you when you were considering "clearing" me a moment ago. I'm not sure why Casey is townbinning you when you've been really inconsistent throughout the game.

Yeah I don't want to play around Casey!scum at this point even though it's not impossible

here is each of them trying to fight the solve. fight the optimal chance for town to win. why is fighting the solve scummy? because it is the strategy with the MOST REASONABLE CHANCE OF SUCCESS GIVEN OUR SHIT SITUATION but their attitudes towards these are all doubtcasting.

town thrive on

probability

, coming up with the highest probability solutions and pushing reasonably probable conclusions.

scum thrive on

possibility

, discrediting reasonably probable theories by town. They seek to add more "what if this", "why are we assuming this", "this could still be true"

A50: "why are we giving IV a pass? he's been on all dunks? Lav COULD be scum?"

Marksman: "why are you assuming these are the partners? maf can still be all off the way, it's possible?"

Isis: "If I had a good townread, I wouldn't want Casey to decide for me! Hiraki could be twilight trolling! why are we giving inno a pass? they could be town, they could be scum"

THESE THREE ARE THE ONES WITH THESE ATTITUDES NEAR THE END OF DAY. I simply think they are showing their true colors and motivations beyond all the D1, D2, Dx whatever fluff protown talk. I simply do NOT get this sense from anyone else in the game.

[innocentvillager]

nice! isis next dunk it seems when Hiraki flips green

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Isis

I haven’t been this supportive of a vote since clone. It feels good to finally vote a scumread

[innocentvillager]

yeah there’s almost no fucking way this slot flips green

I will send everyone currently alive in this game $100 usd on cash app if this flips green

[innocentvillager]

Light her up Casey!

[innocentvillager]

no point engaging with her anymore lol she can flail and AtE all she wants not gonna change anything

[innocentvillager]

Casey is there a reason you don’t want to talk about future elims now?

[innocentvillager]

well okay where’s your head at then? how do you feel about my marksman/a50 combo?

[innocentvillager]

Reading Marksman's questions to other players is like "Oops all softballs." I'm getting nothing from this.

what does that mean

I just dual ISO skimmed marksman and Isis. I would give them a fat 0 on your associations matrix

Some very normal interaction early and middle game and Marksman putting her as top town mid game and late game for “nuancyness”

There’s nothing to suggest they’re super partnery but definitely nothing to suggest theyre not

[innocentvillager]

I really think the important stuff is in the late game around where town was in the dumps. Scum show their true colors there because the scum mindset is so so vastly different from the town mindset at that point. This is not the case for eaely game necessarily, scum just have to blend in then.

Even if Marksman is busy RL we cannot ignore the specific content he chooses to post with that time. This also reflects either a scum or town mindset. The scum mindset is to steer the elim away from his team casting doubt on everything and kind of blend in. The townie motivation is to focus on reads, hypotheses, re-evaluate reads, focus on solving and casing the game.

I don’t buy that town!Marksman doesn’t have tiem to play this game, has adamant reads but doesn’t push them/reevaluate/get paranoia/genuinely try to solve, and yet chooses to spend his limited time fighting a strategy that will allow for a reasonable chance of success.

There is simply a disconnect between him not pushing reads and refusing to let a town figure push reads that is rooted at its core in the different in alignment mindsets around lylo

I like skimming through the isos for associations as well but I just feel like it’s harder to find stuff there because scum can fake a lot of things with each other

If anything I think Raya and Isis not even mentioning each other at all feels slightly townier but whatever I can see a 0 in your matrix there

[innocentvillager]

Isis-I like the way their playing this, it feels the point of view of a town person playing this. Honestly, their posts give me more motivation to actually do something XD. (Btw you accidentally voted me twice in the past o.O)

i really don't think this is scum!Lav talking about a partner

I still think this is kind of significant

I know we are thinking about this a bit differently, I am kind of pushing the scum!narrative and trying to delve into the individual mindsets of each of these players deducing what is more or less likely to come from town/scum, while you’re looking primarily at pairwise associations.

Just want to keep that in context for everyone

[innocentvillager]

yeah there’s almost no fucking way this slot flips green

I will send everyone currently alive in this game $100 usd on cash app if this flips green

I am dead fucking serious about this btw.

you’re telling me town!Isis doesn’t want $100 to get flipped? She’d rather flip someone else who she’s not sure will flip red anyway? Lmao

[innocentvillager]

You’re probably right, I apologize. i just like staking stuff where my mouth is because it’s fun if I’m right lol, i should’ve thought more about this before saying it.

Sorry. No money for anyone

[innocentvillager]

Do you feel good about Marksman -> A50 -> Lav then?

[innocentvillager]

that should probably end the game if marksman flips red, marksman flips green we’d have to reconsider everything again I guess

@Townies from here on out all 4 of us need to be on the subsequent dunks (except the last one presumably if we are in 1 v 4), if any one of us just doesn’t check the thread scum can just stall out bc of limited time so just check in and plop the vote periodically

Pedit: sounds good! hope we’ve won, we make a good frantic paranoid team Casey

[innocentvillager]

Alrightttt good morning

even though it’s the afternoon

VOTE: Isis
The Little Sheep Follows the Town ☆彡

yay

Just check in periodically super briefly and keep sheeping and we should be good

[innocentvillager]

Ehehe. The scramble was real. Thanks for helping talk through everything.

[innocentvillager]

bye isis we'll miss you
it was fun playing with you
you fooled town for a while

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Marksman Final answer.

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Almost50

[innocentvillager]

glad we figured it out last minute

*post game thoughts:
overall crazy game and it was pretty stressful to get 6 misdunks, but also exciting to work together and dunk the whole team with less than 2 days to go. Thanks Ruby for modding and it was fun!

I yelled about the timer all game - I was literally on every single dunk (I think I was the only one? lol) to try and speed up the game but I think I should've yelled louder. It really fucked us and got us into that shit spot.

I got pretty frantic towards the end especially, tried a bunch of things and as Isis mentioned in Mafia PT my fake votecount idea was pretty detached from reality with the deadline, the problem of translating the fake votecount to the actual votes would've taken way way too long and there were a few other flaws.

I think the only real strategy in our specific spot given a) deadline b) chaindunking problems was to do what we did and have Casey lead the town while the rest of us built cases and tried to solve to support her.

I still think without a single obvtown like Casey this would've been almost unwinnable near the end because of the whole scum influence thing I was mentioning, I think having this kind of unbiased figure is super crucial because even random dunking scores super highly after that from my model. I think that we also got lucky near the end that scum kind of just became complacent and stopped trying as much because they were super likely to win; I maintain that's what somewhat gave them away and part of how we won. All 3 scum were unfortunately in my lean town pool before that though, y'all played super well, had they continued to town it up we would've been absolutely fucked, definitely kudos for getting us into that horrible spot and draining the timer

let me know if you disagree with my thoughts, I'm curious as to what we should've done

[innocentvillager]

and there's the discredit right on cue

Oh no, is there some sort of cookie cutter pattern aside from the 37 others I've deliberately avoided fitting this game that makes that post really scum indicative?
How do I even respond to this?
Like I don't really know. Uhh uhhhhhhhhh UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

What does "discredit" mean in this context?

nvm if you ask i don't think you're trying to discredit me.

I am just like
so good at this alignment
I trained in a Tibetan monastery for 3 consecutive decades
that kind of level

genius!Isis played me so hard here

[innocentvillager]

yeah Casey past two RL days collabing with you was awesome and essential for our win! it was really great that we helped give each other more confidence in our reads approaching the game from different angles

as an aside: i will say this game kind of bled into RL mentally for me as well especially at the end lol, I need to be able to separate mafia from RL better (as you can see from my frequent frantic posting), this is partly why i keep going on hiatus after hiatus and I might have to start another one soon because of this but i had a lot of fun so I'm sure I'll be back eventually!

[innocentvillager]

im not sure what is normally considered balanced for pure normal nightless vanilla (maybe like 4 v 7 would be my guess? 4 v 8 I know is 50% but town outperforms this right?) but the crossfire voting and votes not resetting really hurts town in the late game; as A50 said there were many opportunities for blitz chaindunking (none materialized, but they definitely could've and I probably should've been more explicit about discouraging multivoting in the mid-late game). I think 4 v 9 is probably pretty balanced if I had to make a wild guess, i think 4 v 8 with crossfire starts to get maf sided

[innocentvillager]

if i recall correctly 4v8 nightless is actually 33% EV, with an in-practice winrate of 50% or higher. i'll check the wiki

oh im dumb I misread

scratch that, it has an in-practice winrate of 7/8

uhhh wow, didn't expect that, maybe minus two townies is a bit more fair

woah that's crazy, where did you get that stat from?