Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[Guardian]

Vote Count 29

Oman[2] (The Fonz, Jitsu)

Not Voting[5] (cicero, Oman, BillyTwilight, Kison, Erg0)

[Oman]

He didn't vote. He FoSed.

The first vote of a day is a powerful, powerful thing. And it doesn't sit that as far into the game as we are, he doesn't want to vote straight off the bat.

I've found that scum are very hesitant to be the first vote of the day because it does all sorts of things, and as I said this is a rather unreliable scumtell. But its certainly put Kison in the suspicious stage for me for the first time.

[Kison]

yeah. no. i actualy almost never fos as either alignment but having not really reread after new scum dead and noy really suspecting fonz till that point it felrt like a decent moment. look atv the time, it was a quickie after the game woke back up. at this point it seems im rather alone in finding fonz's move suspect though

oh and what is the gutsy feeling caused by??

Now. The jig is up. if mr cicero would answer the same question that would be great. we can let this shin dig roll all night.

[Oman]

Kison: If I knew what it was caused by it wouldn't be gut.

[Kison]

Precisely why I'm requesting you try to figure out what is causing your gutsy dislike of me. Gut is a myth. Something causes it. Go look for it. It could be an adventure.

[Guardian]

Prod sent to BillyTwilight.

[Jitsu]

Basically, stating how happy you are at night actions benefitting the town can be a scumtell. The idea is that you're trying too hard to make it look like you're part of the town. The reverse also happens, moaning about how bad night actions were. So things like:

No NK last night...great job, doc!
Wow, didn't that work out well for us!
Fantastic, a scum died!
Aw crap, two power roles dead, that sucks.

Personally, I think it's a pile of crap, and any validity it might have only applies, I think, to new players to the site who are unaware of the JEEP tells.

I understand now, thank you. I assume that the JEEP tells are tells documented by the user of the same name that helps administer this site? Are these tells written down anywhere?

Just a point of clarification. Where did people get the idea that the one in three point was mine originally? It was Fonz's. I agreed that it was a good point.

I apologize, you are correct.

I don't have the experience to know how reliable of the one in three rule is. It seems to make sense as a rule of thumb (not naming any scum at all would tend to clear innocents over time, and naming two would tend to be self-destructive), but I wouldn't want to rely on that alone.


@Oman: How unreliable is the tell you mentioned? Is there anything else that caused you to suspect Kison?

[Erg0]

Ok, shaft.ed re-read finally done. I can post my notes if you like, but it's a serious sleeping pill. Instead, here's a summary of shaft.ed's post regarding the living players (except me, obv). Post numbers are from viewing shaft.ed's posts in isolation.

BillyTwilight - Not too much, frequently mentions him as a lurker on day 1 but never really puts any suspicion on him. Little comment on day 2, just a brief mention of his vig theory. Could theoretically be the ignored buddy, but given the level of attention that shaft.ed was paying to this game I don't see that as ikely. Probable town.

cicero - shaft.ed spends a bit of time following him around in the latter part of day 1, semi-agreeing with him about lynching Shanba over ckd and reiterating his points a couple of times. Seems fairly even in terms of their interactions overall - no major conflicts, agree on some things and not on others. I don't see this as a single-minded bussing or buddying effort. Probably town based on this, certainly not worth lynching today.

Jitsu - I'm going to coin a new phrase: "The Jitsu Effect". The more I read Jitsu's posts, the townier I find him to be. My previous impression that he attacked shaft.ed solely on the preview/submit issue was incorrect, he also covered the Fonz vote (before me, in fact). With that removed from the frame, I don't find anything particularly scummy in Jitsu's play to this point. In 92, shaft.ed even made what looks like an attempt to get vollkan to build a case against in Jitsu based on his (vollkan's) day 1 suspicions. Looking town.

Oman - The potential "one in three" scenario that Fonz noted in shaft.ed's 69th post could actually be a "one in four" - shaft.ed also mentions Simenon as his fourth suspect. There are a number of parallels between Oman and Fonz - both in that scumlist, both wagonned weakly by shaft.ed on day 1. I'd be shocked if one of the two wasn't scum. shaft.ed's vote spent a lot of time sitting on Oman without any real pressure being applied, which is a pretty classic scumtell.

Kison (Shanba) - Something that I don't think has been noted is the effort that shaft.ed put into pushing the possibility that ckd and Shanba were scumbuddies on day 1. I'm suspicious of this because a link between them could have served the purpose of semi-clearing Shanba once ckd was dead (I know this doesn't make logical sense, but I've seen it happen before). Note that shaft.ed's stated suspicion of ckd is based almost entirely on Shanba also being scum, but he excludes Shanba from his scumlist in 69 and only mentions him as a possible lynch candidate when cicero pushes him on it (then drops it). Possible scum, but he's in the second tier of suspicion.

The Fonz - The Fonz case on day 1 was a little out of the blue - shaft.ed puts him on his scumlist in 69 and then says that he wants to lynch him over Oman (who he'd been voting for quite a while) in 75, but he'd previously only mentioned Fonz in passing (e.g. in 61, where shaft.ed indirectly attacks him for active lurking). Spends a lot of time on day 1 and 2 attacking him while leaving his vote on Oman. A thought regarding the meta stuff in post 130: isn't it possible that shaft.ed didn't actually read Fonz's games to find this out? It could easily have been a setup from night 1, especially given that the two of them came out swinging at each other at the start of day 2. Sitting about 50/50 with Oman at this point as my preference for today's lynch.

[BillyTwilight]

I had a brief read, but not a lot of time now to post (on my father-in-law's comp). Quick answer for Jitsu's question in post #912: the reason I singled out cicero was for post #893. The fact that he finds Oman's lynch to be inevitable, or dumb to avoid, or whatever, based mostly on being the "one in three" and that he was shaft.ed's random vote seems rediculously artificial to me; something scum might post without really thinking about it and then wishing they hadn't (he's never tried to back up that argument since).

I'll try to get back on later this week; will be on Sunday if I don't get a chance to before.

[Jitsu]

Fonz, how much have you played with Shaft.ed before this game?

[cicero]

Incidentally,

I'm not ready to vote yet

, but I

think

it

might

be dumb NOT to lynch Oman at this point. He's in the three suspicions of Shaft.ed, he was Shaft.ed's random vote and small focus at the beginning of day one (scum like to do that),

his case on me was thoroughly artificial and he hasn't really demonstrated any hunger to scumhunt. Just the opposite.

Maybe

I've been thinking past the obvious too much in this game.

Might

be time to stop.

I'd like other people's thoughts on this plz.

Hey Billy, I've used pretty colors to make the parts of that post that you ignored stand out for you.

First pay attention to the dark red which is an intrical part of the point. Then look at the red.

-------------------------

Oman's point on Kison gives me pause though. Obviously its an unreliable scumtell. what's interesting is that I wonder if that the way Oman presented it doesn't feel like something scum would do. It feels like an honest expression of gut. Unfortunately I've been doing a better job of finding people unscummy than scummy in this game which is bad so I don't want to go overboard, but again

I'd like to know what everyone else thinks.

[Jitsu]

Kison is a very good person to be suspecting in my opinion. But *why*? And if so why aren't you pressing him?

Cicero, what are your reasons for suspecting Kison?

[cicero]

I was more saying that he needs more scrutiny. I have lingering left over suspicion from Shanba and more a fear of him not getting quite enough attention.

[The Fonz]

Busy today, expect me to post something good this weekend.

[BillyTwilight]

Incidentally,

I'm not ready to vote yet

, but I

think

it

might

be dumb NOT to lynch Oman at this point. He's in the three suspicions of Shaft.ed, he was Shaft.ed's random vote and small focus at the beginning of day one (scum like to do that),

his case on me was thoroughly artificial and he hasn't really demonstrated any hunger to scumhunt. Just the opposite.

Maybe

I've been thinking past the obvious too much in this game.

Might

be time to stop.

I'd like other people's thoughts on this plz.

Hey Billy, I've used pretty colors to make the parts of that post that you ignored stand out for you.

First pay attention to the dark red which is an intrical part of the point. Then look at the red.

The dark red is a lame reason to find someone's lynch inevitable, and the light red is hedging. What exactly about this am I supposed to find less scummy?

[The Fonz]

I understand now, thank you. I assume that the JEEP tells are tells documented by the user of the same name that helps administer this site? Are these tells written down anywhere?

Here.

Fonz, how much have you played with Shaft.ed before this game?

A fair bit. I'd seen him as town at least twice, there may be more although I don't recall offhand.

In other news, Cicero is looking yet worse. Don't get me wrong, he and Oman are my top two, but my levels of certainty are getting fairly close.

[Kison]

Is his last post what is bothering you?

Oman, I take it you haven't figured out why you think I'm scummy.

A review Shafted's earlier game posts reveals a sort of reluctance to target Cicero directly. He was also the one who led the whole lurker lynch thing from yesterday. Definitely bothering, but his Day One play left a pretty significant Town imprint on me and I'm having trouble wanting to dismiss it. Perhaps it's just the meta comparison I'm doing of him here compared to in iPick. Regardless, he's definitely not the one I want to go today.

Right now I'm feeling most comfortable with either Jitsu or Oman. Disagree with Erg0's point about Shafted trying to get Vollkan to build a case against Jitsu. What Shafted said in his post 92 looks more like him trying to plant dissent against Vollkan. Part of what leads me to believe this is the following :

So what do the 'vollkan attack Jitsu' folks think of the continued back and forth? That's not getting much comment.

It is very odd that Shafted would address the people who disliked Vollkan's Jistu attacks. They'd be more likely to scrutinize him. Why not simply ask for the opinions of everyone?

[Oman]

I will reread Kison, I've just cleared my schedual and have a lot more free time.

[Erg0]

Disagree with Erg0's point about Shafted trying to get Vollkan to build a case against Jitsu. What Shafted said in his post 92 looks more like him trying to plant dissent against Vollkan. Part of what leads me to believe this is the following :

So what do the 'vollkan attack Jitsu' folks think of the continued back and forth? That's not getting much comment.

It is very odd that Shafted would address the people who disliked Vollkan's Jistu attacks. They'd be more likely to scrutinize him. Why not simply ask for the opinions of everyone?

Hm yeah, I see your point. I've still got Oman and Fonz ahead of Jitsu, though.

Looking forward to Oman's next post.

Fonz, what do you think of Jitsu's comment now that you know he isn't aware of the JEEP tells?

[Oman]

The biggest problem with this reread is the fact that I can't genuenly call shanba scummy without feeling like I could just be missing the meat of it.

[Jitsu]

Oman, I take it you haven't figured out why you think I'm scummy.

I can't help but wonder why you are paying Oman's gut feeling so much attention. So far, Oman's suspicion of you boils down to two things: (1) the FoS vs. vote thing, which you've responded to, and (2) a "gut" feeling he hasn't explained. Oman's point about the FoS is rather weak but why are you continuing to push for Oman to characterize his gut feeling? It certainly doesn't seem like anyone is interested in voting you because of a gut feeling Oman has.

In other news, Cicero is looking yet worse. Don't get me wrong, he and Oman are my top two, but my levels of certainty are getting fairly close.

I have to say, Cicero's is starting to pique my interest.


@Cicero: Do you have a rebuttal against Billy's last post? Also, you asked for opinions on Oman and some people seem to have weighed in. What do you think now about Oman and recent events?

@Oman: Can you clarify what you mean in your previous post?

[cicero]

Incidentally,

I'm not ready to vote yet

, but I

think

it

might

be dumb NOT to lynch Oman at this point. He's in the three suspicions of Shaft.ed, he was Shaft.ed's random vote and small focus at the beginning of day one (scum like to do that),

his case on me was thoroughly artificial and he hasn't really demonstrated any hunger to scumhunt. Just the opposite.

Maybe

I've been thinking past the obvious too much in this game.

Might

be time to stop.

I'd like other people's thoughts on this plz.

Hey Billy, I've used pretty colors to make the parts of that post that you ignored stand out for you.

First pay attention to the dark red which is an intrical part of the point. Then look at the red.

The dark red is a lame reason to find someone's lynch inevitable, and the light red is hedging. What exactly about this am I supposed to find less scummy?

1. I'm sorry. Why exactly is that a lame reason? I'd like your reasoning.

2. The point of my post was to demonstrate that BT was misrepresenting what I said and the way that I said it. He can now come back and say "oh no. you were scummy for different reasons but what it looks like to me is tautology of scumminess when in fact in the first place BT misrepresented my words. That was my point.

3. Sometimes I act definitively. Sometimes I muse. This was musing because my focus on Vollkan and desire to put pressure on people like him who have a reputation as being truly exemplary players who are hard to see as scum was making me ignore some of the more obvious scummy behavior. Oman's behavior has been scummy. Just because I listed it all in a short post doesn't make it any less true. We might be stupid not to lynch Oman after he has scumtell connections to Shaft.ed, hasn't scumhunted much at all and when he did bother to do any work he cobbled together a case on me that most others thought was crap. How exactly is me saying this problematic? I really don't get it but I would LOVE for someone to explain it to me. Seriously. Asserting that its "lame" doesn't cut the Dijon mustard.

4. Qualification: I am having trouble getting through a full re-read right now. I really want to look at all of your interactions with Shaft.ed, not just Shaft.ed's interaction with each of you as well as any other issues. I just need to get through it all which I will hopefully do in the next few days.

[cicero]

Re-reads in Isolation: BillyTwilight (not because he's accusing me. Because he's top on the drop down menu)


vote for CK based on tells that I disagree with.

Opposes lynching lurker.

BT in 16:

Oman, shaft.ed, and volkan

Oman, shaft.ed, and volkan were much less forward about finding Adel scummy, but allowed for suspicion of Adel to be in their play and something they could return to later.

I'd say there is probably at least one mafioso in the above group. Right now my bet is Oman. I'll give a more thorough analysis of each of these players later this weekend/early next week.

Cicero, you asked me which of volkan/Oman I would find scummiest, my answer right now is Oman. Volkan's player analysis from the end of day 1 were confused enough that I feel he is probably town in the same boat I'm in. Again, a more careful read will help me understand this better, but I don't have time this evening.

So he wants Oman but when I start suspecting Oman more BT backs off.

Also recall BTs - "That's where the vig is" comment. Followed by some rather poor logic on the usefulness of Vigs. Poor because it doesn't excuse zeroing in on who the vig would be. What is always interesting in such a case though, is, if BT was scum he would be less likely to put that kernal out in public since he could just communicate it to his scumbuddies during night talk. Only other time I've seen a scum do this was in Adel's Nightmare which had the odd mechanic of no night talking for the scum.

Can anyone think of a true motivation for scum to say something like this in the thread?

It's possible that he himself is an SK or Vig doing the shooting himself... or what he says is true. He really does think its best to lower feasible vigs. But that still seems awfully odd to me.

Billytwilight never directly engages with Shaft.ed while alive and offers no direct opinion on his scumminess or lack thereof. Discussions of Shaft.ed are primarily about Jitsu's suspicions of Shaft.ed.

His Post 24 posts a scumdar.

Not a lot of solid analysis but a few good points.

Some questions re 24:

1. Oman's play is sloppy for scum and not trying hard to win for scum. Is it not the same for town?

2. Erg0 is declared "town". Why? No reason given

His 25

Here is BT's first reason for me as scum:

Cicero has the least amount of headbutting with shaft.ed of anyone in the game. And I don't buy that shaft.ed had to put one of his mafia members in his suspect list, which cicero has taken from Fonzy and ran with a little on this page.

Interestingly enough, BT has zero interaction with Shaft.ed and actually serves as something of a defense of Shaft.ed against Jitsu. Very worth noting.

shaft.ed continual pining about shanba's absence reads off to me, so there might be something there. I will say that Kison's interaction with shaft.ed reads a lot more genuinely, but isn't as strong as shaft.ed's interaction with others.

Billytwilight can you expand on this? I'm not sure I understand this point.

[cicero]

ERGO:

Random votes Ergo just like Shaft.ed.

Generally lurky like crazy but building up some aggression in day one.

Felt very much like he did a candyman presence early on, posting when he or his absence was made the subject of a post and otherwise playing quiet.

Play adversely affected by moving and job stress though.

Day One voted Curiouskarmadog. His reason is decent. CKDs intimation of having a role was dumb.

Here's the entirety of his day one contribution of suspicions:

point - I'm having trouble organising things in my head. From my first read of the posts I'm catching up on, ckd looks a little scummy (his defence to Adel was particularly troublesome), Adel and Sim look ok, and I'm not sure about cicero, vollkan, Fonz and shaft.ed yet. Jitsu seems slightly off from what I saw of him in vollkan's game, but that's a back-of-the-mind thing right now. Oman's "I'm not voting" post was definitely different for him, and I'm not sure if this is mitigated by the fact that he pointed this out himself.

The next day he moves to put Shaft.ed and Jitsu at the front of the line. Keeps on Shaft.ed in a way that's reasonable under the circumstances.

His 30th post

Top 3:
1. shaft.ed
2. Jitsu
3. everybody else (ok, not everybody else, but there are probably 3 people tied for third with semi-realised reasoning) [/quot]

Good questions to Fonz.

Points out the doctor Jeep tell on Jitsu.

Does a whole re-read in his 53. Now he finds Jitsu townier. Good reasonable summaries on all the players.

Overall my re-read makes me thing I may have been wrong about Erg0 - or he's really stepped up his game. For the moment I'm putting him back in the townier column for now.

[BillyTwilight]

1. I'm sorry. Why exactly is that a lame reason? I'd like your reasoning.

It's not a lame reason to find someone scummy. It's a lame reason to find their lynch inevitable. When someone posts a plea making the claim that we would be "dumb" not to lynch another player at this point, I expect that to be backed up with major reasons, from their play or from a mathematical analysis, for why that players lynch

should

happen at some point in the game. Being lazy at scumhunting and not backing up accusations thoroughly doesn't fall into that category for me. Thus, "lame".

2. The point of my post was to demonstrate that BT was misrepresenting what I said and the way that I said it. He can now come back and say "oh no. you were scummy for different reasons but what it looks like to me is tautology of scumminess when in fact in the first place BT misrepresented my words. That was my point.

?? Not sure where the close quote-mark is supposed to be so not sure what thought process you are attributing to me. My thought process was "cicero thinks we'd be dumb to not lynch Oman because 1.) He was on shaft.ed's list of possible scum and no one else on the list looks likely, 2.) He was shaft.ed's random vote, and 3.) He's exhibited lazy scumhunting. Valid reasons to find someone scummy, not valid reasons to find that person's lynch inevitable."

3. Sometimes I act definitively. Sometimes I muse. This was musing because my focus on Vollkan and desire to put pressure on people like him who have a reputation as being truly exemplary players who are hard to see as scum was making me ignore some of the more obvious scummy behavior. Oman's behavior has been scummy. Just because I listed it all in a short post doesn't make it any less true. We might be stupid not to lynch Oman after he has scumtell connections to Shaft.ed, hasn't scumhunted much at all and when he did bother to do any work he cobbled together a case on me that most others thought was crap. How exactly is me saying this problematic? I really don't get it but I would LOVE for someone to explain it to me. Seriously. Asserting that its "lame" doesn't cut the Dijon mustard.

The problematic part, for me, is that those reasons are reaching for someone to think that another player should be lynched, not in the "I think he's scum" sort of way, but in the "this game state really requires the lynch of this player" sort of way. Your post looks like you think his lynch would fall into the latter category. "I'm not ready to vote yet, but I think it might be dumb NOT to lynch Oman at this point." Capatalizing the not; consider it dumb to not lynch Oman; these things feel like you are almost asking for a policy lynch of Oman, in my reading. The reasons you give for that kind of lynch don't cut the mustard, imo.

I'll get to your next post later.