Mini 634 - The Baron's court: Game over

[Singing Librarian]

Not much idea what a beast master would do, Mariyta. Beast could refer to werewolves, or to more mundane things like horses or dogs. Master implies control of some sort. But eh, could be anything.

[Singing Librarian]

I think that speculation about the role is likely to be pointless. However, if someone does have solid information, then they could post that. Be careful, though - only post it if it'll actually help the town and not help the scum. And that's pretty unlikely, I would have thought. It'd be a definite case of think before posting.

[Singing Librarian]

I think it's more likely that people haven't yet realised the game has begun, as it opened over the weekend. Either that or the scum have started lurking really early. I'd go with the first option, for now.

[Singing Librarian]

Not wanting to just jump on the bandwagon, but that post of Sekinj's is indeed the most worrying looking thing seen so far in the thread.

[Singing Librarian]

I'm not buying sekinj's claim, I'm afraid. I agree that it's unlikely that 10 out of 11 have night powers (and the 11th has a load of information instead), plus this sentence:

"I got a whole list clues, but I can't play all my cards at once, or we could find scum."

Um - catching scum is what we're trying to do, isn't it? You're withholding 'cards' because said cards could help us catch scum? Not good, really not good. Or did you mean something completely different?

[Singing Librarian]

Oh great. Either OhGodMyLife or sekinj is definite scum, then, as one of them is lying. We just need to work out which.

I know there are some bizarre night actions involved in this game, so I suppose it is just about possible that everyone has one, but I'm not sure. This needs further thought and examination, but really one or other of them needs to be the lynch for today.

[Singing Librarian]

I'm really torn on which of the two is most likely to be lying. I don't think this is a case of misunderstanding, though, as by now the one with the misunderstandign would have said "oh, hang on, having read my PM more carefully..." and the confusion would be cleared up. There are other bizarre possibilities, but essentially it comes down to this:

sekinj is telling the truth, and is the chancellor, with no night action, but privy to a certain amount of information including the fact that everyone else has a night action. OhGodMyLife is concerned about the information that sekinj might hold or gain and counterclaims as a vanilla person to make the claim seem false. For this to be the case, the scum team would surely have to have some pretty firm evidence that the information sekinj has could be harmful to them.

sekinj is lying, having made up a role which suggests a lack of powerless townies, partly in the hope that his neck could be saved and partly to fish for vanillas to make the scum's chances of hitting power roles at night much greater. OhGodMyLife really is a vanilla townie and counterclaims.

With consideration, I think it's likely that sekinj is telling the truth. In a game about a court, chancellor would be a risky role name to fakeclaim, and the information volunteered is too easy to be disproved (ie as soon as someone is proved to be a vanilla townie, the claim is proved false). I don't know what it is that the scum are scared of with regards to skinj's information, but it seems clear that they're scared of something, enough that OGML is risking his neck to get sekinj out of the game quickly.

FoS: OhGodMyLife

[Singing Librarian]

[d]) My information is not believed anyway

Refer to a) and b).

OGML, Sing (post 83, 163), Rage (post 141), raver (post 157) all say that my information is not believable or that I am lying. I completely understand that players can’t believe me off hand, and that I will be doubted, but my point is that I’m not going to give out more information in hopes of being more believable.

Um, I concluded post 163 by saying that I think it's most likely that you are telling the truth. I thought it best to outline both scenarios before stating my conclusion. I wasn't sure at first whether to believe the information simply because it seemed so unlikely, but having thought about it, I realised it would be suicide for you to have claimed what you did if it wasn't true - far too easy to disprove.

[Singing Librarian]

That's very true, MafiaMann, but (speaking for myself only, here), I think one of them lying is more likely than any of those possibilities. Investigative sanities make sense to me, but giving deliberately false info before the game even starts? Possible, but I hope not!

I want to vote for OGML, as I think that's the source of the lie, so I feel I should explain why I haven't done so yet. I wasn't sure whether revealing this earlier could help scum somehow, but I don't see how.

I don't have a vote today. Someone stole it during the night somehow. I don't know whether it's a scum power or a town power, but it's definitely out there, hence part of my decision to believe sekinj, knowing that there are some unusual things going on by night. It's also something we need to be aware of (being forewarned of this surely helps town more than scum), as every day there's likely to be someone who has not got control over their own vote, which will make lynches that much harder.

[Singing Librarian]

Unclear posting isn't generally a scum thing, I'd have thought, though sometimes scum seem to delight in confusing the town. However, this is generally through arguments that lead everyone on a wild goose chase rather than indecipherability. Sometimes, though, you end up looking at who is being least helpful to town rather than who is being scummiest if nobody's looking out and out guilty.

In that situation, I can sort of understand a vote made on the basis that someone's postings just make you go "huh? what?" as unhelpful to town can be much the same thing as helpful to scum. Not always, but it can be.

[Singing Librarian]

Agreed that Rage's request initially seems super-scummy, but couldn't "I'd like to know all of your name, your role name and your gender before you earn my vote" mean "tell me that info, or you will earn my vote"? I'm not convinced that it does, and that only makes it less scummy rather than not scummy, but it's worth bearing in mind. Definite merit of a finger of suspicion there.

[Singing Librarian]

Although I still believe that one of sekinj and OGML is lying to us (and am firmly of the opinion that of the two, it is OGML that is scum), I can totally understand the votes for Rage and Mariyta - both seem to be fishing for more information than is actually necessary, though I do agree on the other hand that we need something from OGML.

My opinion is that OGML is the clear choice to lynch today, as it makes so much more sense for him to be lying than for sekinj to be lying. Mariyta and Rage are definitely worth keeping an eye on, though.

[Singing Librarian]

Well, I was pretty convinced yesterday by the binary option, but also convinced that OGML was lying to us. The apparent contradiction between what OGML said and what sekinj says is worth remembering, but I don't feel inclined to assume sekinj is scum. On the other hand, I'm not inclined to trust her information - even she is worried that she may have sanity issues, so the rest of us should be wary. If the night choice info was wrong, who's to say that any of it is truly correct?

Gremwell's actions I feel to be very townie - if I could have voted, I would have done exactly the same thing as I don't want to find out what the disadvantages of a no lynch are. It is certainly implied that bad things would happen if we failed to lynch.

I don't think we can assume that TheAdmiral's death has anything to do with a potential case on Mariyta - as was pointed out just after day broke, analysing night kills just leads to WIFOM madness ("Well maybe that's what they want us to think", "But maybe THAT's what they want us to think..."). If there is a case for lynching Mariyta, it should be utterly independent of the fact that TheAdmiral is dead.

Currently, I'm feeling the need to look closely at thinktank and MafiaMann. Not enough to start voting, but I feel that both deserve further attention and re-reads.

[Singing Librarian]

Sorry guys. I'll post more later, but the gender info is more urgent: male in real life and in game.

[Singing Librarian]

My nickname makes sense, but does not affect my actual play in any way. I suppose it's possible that OGML's reflected some part of his role as squires are not generally known for their capriciousness - or are they? I'm not overly convinced, though.

My vague suspicion of thinktank is increasing due to refusal to reveal gender - how could it possibly do any harm? Also, is it me or was mafiamann's flip-flop on that issue rather alarming? I suppose at least thinktank is sticking to his/her guns on the issue rather than drifting with the wind.

[Singing Librarian]

I realised that I explained my suspicions of thinktank, but not on mafiamann, who I am actually more wary of.

Why am I suspicious of mafiamann? Well, during day 1 he didn't seem all that suspicious, but during day 2 he has been really worrying me.

Firstly, there's the seriously WIFOMish suggestion that TheAdmiral was killed because he had voted for Mariyta. While that sort of thing is always possible, it's rarely useful to speculate along those lines as it ties the town up in pointless arguments which delay anything useful being discussed. And he repeats the suggestion as well, using that as the main basis of suspicion on Mariyta.

Then the sudden change from "Im against this" (claiming gender) to, in his very next post "Im male in game and rl". When queried on it, he essentially said he was doing it because everyone else was doing it, bit this is not true - between those two posts (344 and 349), only one other person, raverblood, volunteered the information. That's hardly everyone, is it? It strikes me that he wanted to seem to be doing what the town wanted, even though it needed a complete change in position within 5 posts. Not be doing, seem to be doing.

Vote: MafiaMann

That's not to say I'm not suspicious of anyone else, but this is a big inconsistency in my view, and coupled with the WIFOMy statement about the nightkill, it makes me think that he's scum trying to play the innocent.

[Singing Librarian]

I was under the impression a good porton of the town was in favor of the gender reveal so i figured why not tell the town if a majority of the town wanted to know. Yes only one other person revealed but other expressed interest in it.

Again, not so.

Post 344 - Mafiamann states he is against it
Post 345 - Mariyta is unconvinced that it will help
Post 346 - Rage sees potential ways that scum could mess it up for town
Post 347 - Rage lets us know that he'll be away for a bit
Post 348 - raverblood reveals game gender
Post 349 - Mafiamann reveals game gender

All of the posts between your change of mind are somewhat dubious about the process. Not as outright negative as you were, but not positive about it either.

And if we go back a few posts, sekinj suggested it in 341, Rage is quite positive and reiterated what we already knew (female role) in 342 and Mariyta expressed doubt in 343.

I do not see how you can claim that these posts could have given you the impression that a good proportion of the town was in favour. That's just not at all right. raverblood's reveal is the only 'in favour' post between your 'I am against' and your reveal. Even Rage, who had already revealed his in-game gender before the idea ever came up, was dubious and not certain whether it would help in any way well before you changed your mind. It is true that Mariyta changed mind as well, but their position was nowhere near as negative as yours.

[Singing Librarian]

]Sorry for the lack of being here recently - my personal life has got very interesting.]

Gremwell, I didn't vote for OGML because I couldn't vote. At all.